United States Naval Observatory
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2024 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2024 APRIL 30 TUESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 30 Tuesday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.31] [ 0.28] [ 0.37] [ 0.27] [ 0.27]
1 Real Salt Lake = 3.03 5 2 3 2.38( 1) 1 1 1 | 4 1 3 | 3.10 1 | 3.03 1 | 2.54 2 | 2.92 2 western
2 Inter Miami CF = 2.95 6 2 3 1.93( 20) 1 1 0 | 1 1 1 | 2.99 2 | 2.83 2 | 2.69 1 | 2.58 4 EASTERN
3 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.66 5 2 2 1.87( 23) 0 1 1 | 0 2 1 | 2.76 3 | 2.65 3 | 2.29 6 | 2.48 6 western
4 Minnesota United FC = 2.54 5 2 2 2.07( 14) 0 0 1 | 1 1 2 | 2.63 4 | 2.61 4 | 2.16 10 | 1.94 17 western
5 New York Red Bulls = 2.43 4 1 5 2.14( 4) 1 0 1 | 1 1 2 | 2.36 7 | 2.58 5 | 2.24 9 | 2.14 14 EASTERN
6 Philadelphia Union = 2.43 3 2 4 2.12( 5) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 2.39 6 | 2.43 7 | 2.33 3 | 2.38 9 EASTERN
7 LA Galaxy = 2.35 5 2 3 2.04( 16) 1 0 1 | 1 1 2 | 2.40 5 | 2.51 6 | 2.02 13 | 1.76 19 western
8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.34 3 1 6 2.00( 17) 1 0 2 | 1 0 2 | 2.29 8 | 2.33 8 | 2.30 5 | 2.08 16 EASTERN
9 Los Angeles FC = 2.24 4 3 3 2.11( 7) 0 2 1 | 1 2 1 | 2.17 12 | 2.26 10 | 2.25 8 | 2.43 7 western
10 St. Louis CITY FC = 2.21 2 1 6 2.14( 3) 0 1 1 | 0 1 2 | 2.23 9 | 2.30 9 | 2.02 12 | 1.65 21 western
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 30 Tuesday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.31] [ 0.28] [ 0.37] [ 0.27] [ 0.27]
11 Atlanta United = 2.16 3 3 3 1.74( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 1 1 | 2.19 10 | 1.97 14 | 2.27 7 | 2.23 12 EASTERN
12 Colorado Rapids = 2.10 4 3 3 2.06( 15) 1 0 1 | 2 0 1 | 2.19 11 | 2.18 11 | 1.84 22 | 2.34 10 western
13 FC Cincinnati = 2.08 5 2 3 1.77( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 1.91 17 | 2.14 12 | 2.31 4 | 2.42 8 EASTERN
14 Austin FC = 1.98 4 3 3 1.92( 21) 0 1 0 | 1 2 2 | 1.94 16 | 2.02 13 | 2.00 14 | 2.52 5 western
15 Sporting Kansas City = 1.97 2 3 5 2.07( 13) 0 2 0 | 0 3 3 | 1.98 14 | 1.97 15 | 1.96 16 | 2.11 15 western
16 Portland Timbers = 1.97 2 4 4 2.21( 2) 0 1 0 | 0 3 2 | 2.03 13 | 1.97 16 | 1.88 20 | 1.88 18 western
17 D.C. United = 1.91 3 3 4 1.96( 19) 0 1 0 | 0 1 2 | 1.98 15 | 1.83 19 | 1.93 18 | 1.69 20 EASTERN
18 New York City FC = 1.86 4 4 2 1.79( 26) 0 0 1 | 0 1 1 | 1.78 21 | 1.76 20 | 2.13 11 | 2.96 1 EASTERN
19 CF Montreal = 1.84 3 3 3 2.08( 11) 1 0 0 | 1 0 1 | 1.83 19 | 1.88 17 | 1.90 19 | 1.59 23 EASTERN
20 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.84 4 4 1 1.90( 22) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.81 20 | 1.86 18 | 1.94 17 | 1.60 22 western
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 30 Tuesday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.31] [ 0.28] [ 0.37] [ 0.27] [ 0.27]
21 Nashville SC = 1.74 1 3 5 2.08( 9) 0 1 1 | 0 3 3 | 1.86 18 | 1.69 22 | 1.63 26 | 0.81 29 EASTERN
22 Seattle Sounders FC = 1.71 2 5 3 2.08( 12) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 1.67 23 | 1.72 21 | 1.87 21 | 2.26 11 western
23 Chicago Fire FC = 1.65 2 4 4 2.11( 6) 0 1 1 | 0 2 2 | 1.70 22 | 1.62 24 | 1.73 24 | 1.47 25 EASTERN
24 Orlando City SC = 1.63 2 4 3 2.09( 8) 0 2 1 | 0 2 1 | 1.47 27 | 1.57 25 | 2.00 15 | 2.64 3 EASTERN
25 FC Dallas = 1.57 2 5 2 1.97( 18) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 | 1.56 24 | 1.49 27 | 1.82 23 | 2.16 13 western
26 Charlotte FC = 1.52 3 5 2 1.87( 24) 0 1 1 | 1 1 1 | 1.54 25 | 1.52 26 | 1.68 25 | 1.14 27 EASTERN
27 Toronto FC = 1.50 5 4 1 1.74( 29) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 1.47 26 | 1.65 23 | 1.50 27 | 0.93 28 EASTERN
28 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.15 1 8 1 2.08( 10) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 1.22 28 | 1.02 28 | 1.47 28 | 1.39 26 western
29 New England Revolution = 0.65 1 7 1 1.87( 25) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 0.55 29 | 0.58 29 | 1.30 29 | 1.52 24 EASTERN
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 western = 2.09 2.09 ( 1) 14 2.09 ( 1)
2 EASTERN = 1.91 1.91 ( 2) 15 1.91 ( 2)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 EASTERN = 1.91 1.91 ( 2) 15 1.91 ( 2)
1 western = 2.09 2.09 ( 1) 14 2.09 ( 1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 EASTERN = 1.91
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 30 Tuesday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.31] [ 0.28] [ 0.37] [ 0.27] [ 0.27]
2 Inter Miami CF = 2.95 6 2 3 1.93( 20) 1 1 0 | 1 1 1 | 2.99 2 | 2.83 2 | 2.69 1 | 2.58 4 EASTERN
5 New York Red Bulls = 2.43 4 1 5 2.14( 4) 1 0 1 | 1 1 2 | 2.36 7 | 2.58 5 | 2.24 9 | 2.14 14 EASTERN
6 Philadelphia Union = 2.43 3 2 4 2.12( 5) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 2.39 6 | 2.43 7 | 2.33 3 | 2.38 9 EASTERN
8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.34 3 1 6 2.00( 17) 1 0 2 | 1 0 2 | 2.29 8 | 2.33 8 | 2.30 5 | 2.08 16 EASTERN
11 Atlanta United = 2.16 3 3 3 1.74( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 1 1 | 2.19 10 | 1.97 14 | 2.27 7 | 2.23 12 EASTERN
13 FC Cincinnati = 2.08 5 2 3 1.77( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 1.91 17 | 2.14 12 | 2.31 4 | 2.42 8 EASTERN
17 D.C. United = 1.91 3 3 4 1.96( 19) 0 1 0 | 0 1 2 | 1.98 15 | 1.83 19 | 1.93 18 | 1.69 20 EASTERN
18 New York City FC = 1.86 4 4 2 1.79( 26) 0 0 1 | 0 1 1 | 1.78 21 | 1.76 20 | 2.13 11 | 2.96 1 EASTERN
19 CF Montreal = 1.84 3 3 3 2.08( 11) 1 0 0 | 1 0 1 | 1.83 19 | 1.88 17 | 1.90 19 | 1.59 23 EASTERN
21 Nashville SC = 1.74 1 3 5 2.08( 9) 0 1 1 | 0 3 3 | 1.86 18 | 1.69 22 | 1.63 26 | 0.81 29 EASTERN
23 Chicago Fire FC = 1.65 2 4 4 2.11( 6) 0 1 1 | 0 2 2 | 1.70 22 | 1.62 24 | 1.73 24 | 1.47 25 EASTERN
24 Orlando City SC = 1.63 2 4 3 2.09( 8) 0 2 1 | 0 2 1 | 1.47 27 | 1.57 25 | 2.00 15 | 2.64 3 EASTERN
26 Charlotte FC = 1.52 3 5 2 1.87( 24) 0 1 1 | 1 1 1 | 1.54 25 | 1.52 26 | 1.68 25 | 1.14 27 EASTERN
27 Toronto FC = 1.50 5 4 1 1.74( 29) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 1.47 26 | 1.65 23 | 1.50 27 | 0.93 28 EASTERN
29 New England Revolution = 0.65 1 7 1 1.87( 25) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 0.55 29 | 0.58 29 | 1.30 29 | 1.52 24 EASTERN
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 western = 2.09
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 30 Tuesday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.31] [ 0.28] [ 0.37] [ 0.27] [ 0.27]
1 Real Salt Lake = 3.03 5 2 3 2.38( 1) 1 1 1 | 4 1 3 | 3.10 1 | 3.03 1 | 2.54 2 | 2.92 2 western
3 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.66 5 2 2 1.87( 23) 0 1 1 | 0 2 1 | 2.76 3 | 2.65 3 | 2.29 6 | 2.48 6 western
4 Minnesota United FC = 2.54 5 2 2 2.07( 14) 0 0 1 | 1 1 2 | 2.63 4 | 2.61 4 | 2.16 10 | 1.94 17 western
7 LA Galaxy = 2.35 5 2 3 2.04( 16) 1 0 1 | 1 1 2 | 2.40 5 | 2.51 6 | 2.02 13 | 1.76 19 western
9 Los Angeles FC = 2.24 4 3 3 2.11( 7) 0 2 1 | 1 2 1 | 2.17 12 | 2.26 10 | 2.25 8 | 2.43 7 western
10 St. Louis CITY FC = 2.21 2 1 6 2.14( 3) 0 1 1 | 0 1 2 | 2.23 9 | 2.30 9 | 2.02 12 | 1.65 21 western
12 Colorado Rapids = 2.10 4 3 3 2.06( 15) 1 0 1 | 2 0 1 | 2.19 11 | 2.18 11 | 1.84 22 | 2.34 10 western
14 Austin FC = 1.98 4 3 3 1.92( 21) 0 1 0 | 1 2 2 | 1.94 16 | 2.02 13 | 2.00 14 | 2.52 5 western
15 Sporting Kansas City = 1.97 2 3 5 2.07( 13) 0 2 0 | 0 3 3 | 1.98 14 | 1.97 15 | 1.96 16 | 2.11 15 western
16 Portland Timbers = 1.97 2 4 4 2.21( 2) 0 1 0 | 0 3 2 | 2.03 13 | 1.97 16 | 1.88 20 | 1.88 18 western
20 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.84 4 4 1 1.90( 22) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.81 20 | 1.86 18 | 1.94 17 | 1.60 22 western
22 Seattle Sounders FC = 1.71 2 5 3 2.08( 12) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 1.67 23 | 1.72 21 | 1.87 21 | 2.26 11 western
25 FC Dallas = 1.57 2 5 2 1.97( 18) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 | 1.56 24 | 1.49 27 | 1.82 23 | 2.16 13 western
28 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.15 1 8 1 2.08( 10) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 1.22 28 | 1.02 28 | 1.47 28 | 1.39 26 western
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location based on the Rating _ Original Strong TOTAL MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent GOALS UNDERDOG FAV DOG DRAW _ ======================================================================================================================= philadelphia union 0.21 0.13 0.23 0.14 0.42 3.63 D.C. UNITED +131 +186 +361 TORONTO FC 0.23 0.19 0.53 -0.05 -0.96 2.49 fc dallas +137 +222 +272 INTER MIAMI CF 0.83 0.91 0.62 0.71 0.71 2.65 new york red bulls -132 +411 +324 portland timbers 0.14 0.21 0.07 -0.07 0.48 3.07 CHARLOTTE FC +143 +186 +318 fc cincinnati 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.05 -0.49 2.49 ORLANDO CITY SC +149 +204 +271 minnesota united fc 0.07 0.16 0.27 -0.38 -0.57 2.62 ATLANTA UNITED +160 +184 +281 NASHVILLE SC 0.20 0.32 0.18 0.00 -0.51 3.07 cf montreal +136 +196 +319 CHICAGO FIRE FC 1.31 1.43 1.41 0.70 0.21 2.92 new england revoluti -209 +665 +418 st. louis city fc 0.06 0.14 0.06 -0.18 -0.21 3.02 HOUSTON DYNAMO FC +155 +174 +313 REAL SALT LAKE 1.37 1.40 1.44 0.85 1.08 3.28 sporting kansas city -212 +616 +453 los angeles fc 0.78 0.67 0.87 0.52 0.77 3.84 SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES -123 +300 +406 VANCOUVER WHITECAPS 0.99 1.10 1.01 0.56 0.22 2.88 austin fc -154 +462 +362 NEW YORK CITY FC 0.07 -0.13 -0.05 0.56 0.88 2.43 colorado rapids +163 +189 +265 la galaxy 0.34 0.44 0.42 -0.11 -0.77 3.27 SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC +119 +217 +338 philadelphia union 0.44 0.36 0.46 0.36 0.65 3.63 D.C. UNITED +108 +227 +369 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY TORONTO FC 0.26 0.22 0.55 -0.02 -0.94 2.49 fc dallas +134 +228 +273 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY INTER MIAMI CF 0.87 0.95 0.67 0.76 0.76 2.65 new york red bulls -138 +434 +329 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY portland timbers 0.05 0.12 -0.02 -0.16 0.39 3.07 CHARLOTTE FC +156 +170 +317 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY fc cincinnati 0.19 0.19 0.23 0.09 -0.45 2.49 ORLANDO CITY SC +143 +213 +272 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY minnesota united fc 0.02 0.11 0.21 -0.43 -0.62 2.62 ATLANTA UNITED +169 +174 +281 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY NASHVILLE SC 0.08 0.20 0.07 -0.12 -0.63 3.07 cf montreal +151 +176 +317 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY CHICAGO FIRE FC 1.34 1.47 1.45 0.73 0.24 2.92 new england revoluti -215 +692 +424 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY st. louis city fc 0.11 0.19 0.11 -0.14 -0.17 3.02 HOUSTON DYNAMO FC +148 +181 +313 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY REAL SALT LAKE 1.22 1.25 1.29 0.70 0.93 3.28 sporting kansas city -185 +522 +425 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY los angeles fc 0.77 0.65 0.85 0.50 0.76 3.84 SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES -122 +296 +405 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY VANCOUVER WHITECAPS 0.93 1.03 0.94 0.49 0.16 2.88 austin fc -144 +429 +354 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY NEW YORK CITY FC 0.14 -0.05 0.03 0.64 0.96 2.43 colorado rapids +151 +205 +266 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY la galaxy 0.28 0.39 0.37 -0.17 -0.83 3.27 SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC +125 +206 +336 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Philadelphia Union 0.02 102 51% @ D.C. United 2 @ Toronto FC 1.22 366 79% FC Dallas 3 @ Inter Miami CF 0.46 168 63% New York Red Bulls 4 @ Charlotte FC 0.45 165 62% Portland Timbers 5 FC Cincinnati 0.30 140 58% @ Orlando City SC 6 @ Atlanta United 0.16 120 55% Minnesota United FC 7 CF Montreal 0.49 173 63% @ Nashville SC 8 @ Chicago Fire FC 0.91 269 73% New England Revoluti 9 St. Louis CITY FC 0.44 164 62% @ Houston Dynamo FC 10 @ Real Salt Lake 1.28 390 80% Sporting Kansas City 11 Los Angeles FC 0.75 229 70% @ San Jose Earthquakes 12 @ Vancouver Whitecaps 0.46 167 63% Austin FC 13 @ New York City FC 0.34 147 59% Colorado Rapids 14 LA Galaxy 0.63 200 67% @ Seattle Sounders FC endfileTop_of_Page