United States Naval Observatory

 

Clock requires Netscape

note: clock runs for 30 seconds; it may skip seconds; to restart click reload


Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings | USA Today - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings ]

NFL can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NFL ratings ]

MLB Baseball can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin MLB Baseball ratings ]

NBA can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NBA ratings ]

NHL can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NHL ratings ]

College Football can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin College Football ratings ]

College Basketball can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin College Basketball ratings ]

NASCAR can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NASCAR ratings ]

MLS Soccer can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin MLS Soccer ratings ]

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2014 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


2014 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of OCTOBER 19 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 4 and top 8 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In PURE_ELO, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very good at retro-fitting the W-L results.  However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR
of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two different SCORE BASED methods, GOLDEN_MEAN and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR),
and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

PURE_ELO Retrodictive Summary: RIGHT-WRONG-TIES=163-62-88  .7244(ignore ties)   .6613(tie counts as half-right and half-wrong)
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2014 through games of October 19 Sunday                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.49]                                                   [  0.50]       [  0.50]       [  0.48]
   1  Los Angeles Galaxy      =   2.74   17   6  10    1.95(  16)   5  2  2 |   9  4  5 |    2.91    1 |    2.85    1 |    2.63    1
   2  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.48   19  10   4    1.99(  10)   5  3  1 |   8  7  3 |    2.61    2 |    2.37    4 |    2.55    2
   3  D.C. United             =   2.41   17   9   7    1.92(  19)   1  3  0 |   4  6  4 |    2.43    3 |    2.38    2 |    2.43    3
   4  Real Salt Lake          =   2.38   14   8  11    2.04(   5)   4  4  2 |   6  6  7 |    2.42    5 |    2.38    3 |    2.38    5
   5  FC Dallas               =   2.37   16  11   6    2.02(   6)   3  6  1 |   6  7  5 |    2.43    4 |    2.34    5 |    2.38    4
   6  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   2.17   11   8  14    2.06(   4)   4  3  6 |   7  5  7 |    2.11    6 |    2.12    9 |    2.27    6
   7  Columbus Crew           =   2.16   13  10  10    1.97(  13)   3  0  4 |   5  4  5 |    2.11    7 |    2.22    7 |    2.16    8
   8  Portland Timbers        =   2.15   11   9  13    2.00(   9)   2  5  5 |   4  7  7 |    2.08    9 |    2.22    6 |    2.16    9
   9  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.09   14  12   7    1.96(  14)   1  3  3 |   4  7  3 |    2.02   11 |    2.19    8 |    2.08   11
  10  New England Revolution  =   2.08   16  13   4    1.95(  15)   2  4  0 |   6  6  2 |    2.04   10 |    2.03   11 |    2.17    7
Major League Soccer 2014 through games of October 19 Sunday                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.49]                                                   [  0.50]       [  0.50]       [  0.48]
  11  New York Red Bulls      =   2.08   12  10  11    1.94(  17)   3  3  1 |   7  6  3 |    2.11    8 |    2.04   10 |    2.10   10
  12  Philadelphia Union      =   1.93   10  11  12    1.93(  18)   0  5  1 |   4  8  4 |    1.93   12 |    1.96   12 |    1.89   12
  13  Toronto FC              =   1.69   11  14   8    1.98(  12)   2  5  0 |   6  9  2 |    1.64   13 |    1.66   14 |    1.74   13
  14  Chicago Fire            =   1.69    5  10  18    2.02(   7)   1  3  3 |   3  6  8 |    1.62   14 |    1.72   13 |    1.69   14
  15  Houston Dynamo          =   1.63   11  16   6    1.99(  11)   2  5  0 |   5 10  2 |    1.58   16 |    1.57   16 |    1.69   15
  16  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.57    6  15  12    2.10(   2)   3  5  5 |   3 11  8 |    1.62   15 |    1.57   17 |    1.51   16
  17  Colorado Rapids         =   1.55    8  17   8    2.07(   3)   1 12  0 |   4 15  2 |    1.58   17 |    1.62   15 |    1.43   18
  18  Montreal Impact         =   1.49    6  18   9    2.01(   8)   0  4  2 |   2 11  4 |    1.54   18 |    1.55   18 |    1.31   19
  19  Chivas USA              =   1.33    8  18   6    2.11(   1)   2  8  2 |   3 13  5 |    1.22   19 |    1.20   19 |    1.43   17
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Conference Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  WESTERN                 =   2.12       2.08  (  1)      9       2.09  (  1)
   2  EASTERN                 =   1.93       1.93  (  2)     10       1.93  (  2)


      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  EASTERN                 =   1.93       1.93  (  2)     10       1.93  (  2)
   1  WESTERN                 =   2.12       2.08  (  1)      9       2.09  (  1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  EASTERN                 =   1.93       1.93  (  2)   TEAMS= 10       1.93  (  2)
Major League Soccer 2014 through games of October 19 Sunday                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.49]                                                   [  0.50]       [  0.50]       [  0.48]
   3  D.C. United             =   2.41   17   9   7    1.92(  19)   1  3  0 |   4  6  4 |    2.43    3 |    2.38    2 |    2.43    3
   7  Columbus Crew           =   2.16   13  10  10    1.97(  13)   3  0  4 |   5  4  5 |    2.11    7 |    2.22    7 |    2.16    8
   9  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.09   14  12   7    1.96(  14)   1  3  3 |   4  7  3 |    2.02   11 |    2.19    8 |    2.08   11
  10  New England Revolution  =   2.08   16  13   4    1.95(  15)   2  4  0 |   6  6  2 |    2.04   10 |    2.03   11 |    2.17    7
  11  New York Red Bulls      =   2.08   12  10  11    1.94(  17)   3  3  1 |   7  6  3 |    2.11    8 |    2.04   10 |    2.10   10
  12  Philadelphia Union      =   1.93   10  11  12    1.93(  18)   0  5  1 |   4  8  4 |    1.93   12 |    1.96   12 |    1.89   12
  13  Toronto FC              =   1.69   11  14   8    1.98(  12)   2  5  0 |   6  9  2 |    1.64   13 |    1.66   14 |    1.74   13
  14  Chicago Fire            =   1.69    5  10  18    2.02(   7)   1  3  3 |   3  6  8 |    1.62   14 |    1.72   13 |    1.69   14
  15  Houston Dynamo          =   1.63   11  16   6    1.99(  11)   2  5  0 |   5 10  2 |    1.58   16 |    1.57   16 |    1.69   15
  18  Montreal Impact         =   1.49    6  18   9    2.01(   8)   0  4  2 |   2 11  4 |    1.54   18 |    1.55   18 |    1.31   19
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  WESTERN                 =   2.12       2.08  (  1)   TEAMS=  9       2.09  (  1)
Major League Soccer 2014 through games of October 19 Sunday                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.49]                                                   [  0.50]       [  0.50]       [  0.48]
   1  Los Angeles Galaxy      =   2.74   17   6  10    1.95(  16)   5  2  2 |   9  4  5 |    2.91    1 |    2.85    1 |    2.63    1
   2  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.48   19  10   4    1.99(  10)   5  3  1 |   8  7  3 |    2.61    2 |    2.37    4 |    2.55    2
   4  Real Salt Lake          =   2.38   14   8  11    2.04(   5)   4  4  2 |   6  6  7 |    2.42    5 |    2.38    3 |    2.38    5
   5  FC Dallas               =   2.37   16  11   6    2.02(   6)   3  6  1 |   6  7  5 |    2.43    4 |    2.34    5 |    2.38    4
   6  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   2.17   11   8  14    2.06(   4)   4  3  6 |   7  5  7 |    2.11    6 |    2.12    9 |    2.27    6
   8  Portland Timbers        =   2.15   11   9  13    2.00(   9)   2  5  5 |   4  7  7 |    2.08    9 |    2.22    6 |    2.16    9
  16  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.57    6  15  12    2.10(   2)   3  5  5 |   3 11  8 |    1.62   15 |    1.57   17 |    1.51   16
  17  Colorado Rapids         =   1.55    8  17   8    2.07(   3)   1 12  0 |   4 15  2 |    1.58   17 |    1.62   15 |    1.43   18
  19  Chivas USA              =   1.33    8  18   6    2.11(   1)   2  8  2 |   3 13  5 |    1.22   19 |    1.20   19 |    1.43   17
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile