United States Naval Observatory
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2023 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2023 JUNE 3 SATURDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
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Major League Soccer through games of 2023 June 3 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.51] [ 0.50] [ 0.51] [ 0.51]
1 Los Angeles FC = 2.90 7 1 4 1.87( 23) 0 0 1 | 1 0 2 | 2.76 3 | 2.83 2 | 2.68 1 western
2 FC Cincinnati = 2.74 12 1 3 1.97( 16) 2 1 0 | 4 1 2 | 2.70 4 | 2.89 1 | 2.44 3 EASTERN
3 Philadelphia Union = 2.73 9 4 3 1.85( 24) 0 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 2.59 5 | 2.57 5 | 2.66 2 EASTERN
4 Nashville SC = 2.71 9 3 4 2.02( 12) 0 1 1 | 3 2 1 | 2.80 2 | 2.81 3 | 2.40 4 EASTERN
5 St. Louis CITY FC = 2.64 9 4 1 1.75( 28) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 2.98 1 | 2.79 4 | 2.31 5 western
6 New England Revolution = 2.32 7 3 6 2.17( 3) 1 2 1 | 1 2 3 | 2.49 6 | 2.54 6 | 2.11 9 EASTERN
7 Atlanta United = 2.32 6 4 6 1.93( 20) 0 1 0 | 0 2 2 | 2.21 9 | 2.19 9 | 2.29 6 EASTERN
8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.23 7 6 3 1.91( 22) 0 3 0 | 1 3 2 | 2.39 7 | 2.34 7 | 2.07 11 EASTERN
9 Orlando City SC = 2.18 6 4 5 2.00( 13) 1 1 1 | 1 1 3 | 2.17 10 | 2.18 10 | 2.11 8 EASTERN
10 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.09 8 6 3 1.77( 26) 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 | 2.06 11 | 2.07 11 | 2.07 10 western
Major League Soccer through games of 2023 June 3 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.51] [ 0.50] [ 0.51] [ 0.51]
11 New York City FC = 2.04 4 7 5 2.15( 4) 1 3 0 | 1 3 4 | 1.90 15 | 1.84 16 | 2.14 7 EASTERN
12 FC Dallas = 2.00 6 5 5 1.85( 25) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 1.96 14 | 1.94 14 | 2.02 12 western
13 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.99 6 5 5 1.99( 14) 1 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 1.99 13 | 2.02 12 | 1.98 13 western
14 D.C. United = 1.95 6 6 5 2.09( 9) 0 1 2 | 1 4 3 | 2.25 8 | 2.20 8 | 1.78 22 EASTERN
15 Chicago Fire FC = 1.92 3 5 8 2.23( 1) 1 3 2 | 1 4 4 | 2.02 12 | 2.02 13 | 1.88 20 EASTERN
16 New York Red Bulls = 1.86 4 6 7 2.04( 10) 0 1 1 | 1 5 1 | 1.87 17 | 1.80 18 | 1.93 14 EASTERN
17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 1.85 5 5 6 1.72( 29) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.89 16 | 1.89 15 | 1.88 18 western
18 Portland Timbers = 1.83 4 7 5 2.12( 6) 1 3 0 | 2 4 1 | 1.82 18 | 1.81 17 | 1.90 17 western
19 Toronto FC = 1.82 3 5 9 1.99( 15) 0 1 1 | 0 2 4 | 1.80 19 | 1.76 21 | 1.91 15 EASTERN
20 Sporting Kansas City = 1.77 4 8 5 2.09( 8) 0 1 2 | 1 3 2 | 1.72 20 | 1.63 23 | 1.90 16 western
Major League Soccer through games of 2023 June 3 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.51] [ 0.50] [ 0.51] [ 0.51]
21 CF Montreal = 1.71 6 9 1 2.19( 2) 1 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 1.53 25 | 1.65 22 | 1.88 19 EASTERN
22 Minnesota United FC = 1.70 5 6 5 1.93( 19) 1 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 1.72 21 | 1.80 19 | 1.78 23 western
23 Charlotte FC = 1.69 6 8 3 2.12( 5) 0 3 0 | 3 6 0 | 1.70 22 | 1.77 20 | 1.77 24 EASTERN
24 Austin FC = 1.64 5 7 4 1.75( 27) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 1.39 28 | 1.44 28 | 1.88 21 western
25 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.51 5 7 3 1.96( 17) 0 2 0 | 0 4 0 | 1.64 23 | 1.63 24 | 1.58 29 western
26 Inter Miami CF = 1.49 5 11 0 2.03( 11) 1 2 0 | 4 3 0 | 1.60 24 | 1.56 25 | 1.61 27 EASTERN
27 Real Salt Lake = 1.46 5 7 4 1.93( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 4 1 | 1.41 27 | 1.49 26 | 1.67 26 western
28 Colorado Rapids = 1.44 2 8 7 2.10( 7) 0 2 2 | 0 5 2 | 1.53 26 | 1.45 27 | 1.61 28 western
29 LA Galaxy = 1.43 3 9 3 1.94( 18) 0 1 0 | 0 4 0 | 1.12 29 | 1.11 29 | 1.74 25 western
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 EASTERN = 2.09 2.12 ( 1) 15 2.11 ( 1)
2 western = 1.82 1.88 ( 2) 14 1.86 ( 2)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 EASTERN = 2.09 2.12 ( 1) 15 2.11 ( 1)
2 western = 1.82 1.88 ( 2) 14 1.86 ( 2)
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1 EASTERN = 2.09 2.12 ( 1) TEAMS= 15 2.11 ( 1)
Major League Soccer through games of 2023 June 3 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.51] [ 0.50] [ 0.51] [ 0.51]
2 FC Cincinnati = 2.74 12 1 3 1.97( 16) 2 1 0 | 4 1 2 | 2.70 4 | 2.89 1 | 2.44 3 EASTERN
3 Philadelphia Union = 2.73 9 4 3 1.85( 24) 0 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 2.59 5 | 2.57 5 | 2.66 2 EASTERN
4 Nashville SC = 2.71 9 3 4 2.02( 12) 0 1 1 | 3 2 1 | 2.80 2 | 2.81 3 | 2.40 4 EASTERN
6 New England Revolution = 2.32 7 3 6 2.17( 3) 1 2 1 | 1 2 3 | 2.49 6 | 2.54 6 | 2.11 9 EASTERN
7 Atlanta United = 2.32 6 4 6 1.93( 20) 0 1 0 | 0 2 2 | 2.21 9 | 2.19 9 | 2.29 6 EASTERN
8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.23 7 6 3 1.91( 22) 0 3 0 | 1 3 2 | 2.39 7 | 2.34 7 | 2.07 11 EASTERN
9 Orlando City SC = 2.18 6 4 5 2.00( 13) 1 1 1 | 1 1 3 | 2.17 10 | 2.18 10 | 2.11 8 EASTERN
11 New York City FC = 2.04 4 7 5 2.15( 4) 1 3 0 | 1 3 4 | 1.90 15 | 1.84 16 | 2.14 7 EASTERN
14 D.C. United = 1.95 6 6 5 2.09( 9) 0 1 2 | 1 4 3 | 2.25 8 | 2.20 8 | 1.78 22 EASTERN
15 Chicago Fire FC = 1.92 3 5 8 2.23( 1) 1 3 2 | 1 4 4 | 2.02 12 | 2.02 13 | 1.88 20 EASTERN
16 New York Red Bulls = 1.86 4 6 7 2.04( 10) 0 1 1 | 1 5 1 | 1.87 17 | 1.80 18 | 1.93 14 EASTERN
19 Toronto FC = 1.82 3 5 9 1.99( 15) 0 1 1 | 0 2 4 | 1.80 19 | 1.76 21 | 1.91 15 EASTERN
21 CF Montreal = 1.71 6 9 1 2.19( 2) 1 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 1.53 25 | 1.65 22 | 1.88 19 EASTERN
23 Charlotte FC = 1.69 6 8 3 2.12( 5) 0 3 0 | 3 6 0 | 1.70 22 | 1.77 20 | 1.77 24 EASTERN
26 Inter Miami CF = 1.49 5 11 0 2.03( 11) 1 2 0 | 4 3 0 | 1.60 24 | 1.56 25 | 1.61 27 EASTERN
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2 western = 1.82 1.88 ( 2) TEAMS= 14 1.86 ( 2)
Major League Soccer through games of 2023 June 3 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.51] [ 0.50] [ 0.51] [ 0.51]
1 Los Angeles FC = 2.90 7 1 4 1.87( 23) 0 0 1 | 1 0 2 | 2.76 3 | 2.83 2 | 2.68 1 western
5 St. Louis CITY FC = 2.64 9 4 1 1.75( 28) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 2.98 1 | 2.79 4 | 2.31 5 western
10 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.09 8 6 3 1.77( 26) 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 | 2.06 11 | 2.07 11 | 2.07 10 western
12 FC Dallas = 2.00 6 5 5 1.85( 25) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 1.96 14 | 1.94 14 | 2.02 12 western
13 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.99 6 5 5 1.99( 14) 1 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 1.99 13 | 2.02 12 | 1.98 13 western
17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 1.85 5 5 6 1.72( 29) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.89 16 | 1.89 15 | 1.88 18 western
18 Portland Timbers = 1.83 4 7 5 2.12( 6) 1 3 0 | 2 4 1 | 1.82 18 | 1.81 17 | 1.90 17 western
20 Sporting Kansas City = 1.77 4 8 5 2.09( 8) 0 1 2 | 1 3 2 | 1.72 20 | 1.63 23 | 1.90 16 western
22 Minnesota United FC = 1.70 5 6 5 1.93( 19) 1 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 1.72 21 | 1.80 19 | 1.78 23 western
24 Austin FC = 1.64 5 7 4 1.75( 27) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 1.39 28 | 1.44 28 | 1.88 21 western
25 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.51 5 7 3 1.96( 17) 0 2 0 | 0 4 0 | 1.64 23 | 1.63 24 | 1.58 29 western
27 Real Salt Lake = 1.46 5 7 4 1.93( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 4 1 | 1.41 27 | 1.49 26 | 1.67 26 western
28 Colorado Rapids = 1.44 2 8 7 2.10( 7) 0 2 2 | 0 5 2 | 1.53 26 | 1.45 27 | 1.61 28 western
29 LA Galaxy = 1.43 3 9 3 1.94( 18) 0 1 0 | 0 4 0 | 1.12 29 | 1.11 29 | 1.74 25 western
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location _ MONEYLINE to win _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent TOTAL UNDERDOG FAV DOG DRAW _ ======================================================================================================================= st._louis_city_fc 0.14 0.52 0.34 -0.22 3.11 FC_DALLAS +144 +184 +321 LOS_ANGELES_FC 1.09 1.05 1.16 0.90 3.68 atlanta_united -160 +409 +431 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ FC Dallas 0.21 127 56% St. Louis CITY FC 2 @ Los Angeles FC 0.67 211 68% Atlanta United endfileTop_of_Page