United States Naval Observatory
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2024 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2024 JULY 20 SATURDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of July 20 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.34] [ 0.32] [ 0.34] [ 0.35] [ 0.35]
1 Los Angeles FC = 2.79 14 5 5 2.02( 10) 2 2 1 | 5 3 3 | 2.80 1 | 2.73 3 | 2.96 2 | 3.19 2 western
2 Columbus Crew SC = 2.78 12 4 7 1.97( 18) 1 1 1 | 2 2 2 | 2.72 4 | 2.81 1 | 3.06 1 | 3.34 1 EASTERN
3 Inter Miami CF = 2.73 16 4 5 1.94( 25) 2 0 1 | 4 2 2 | 2.79 2 | 2.76 2 | 2.66 3 | 2.56 5 EASTERN
4 Real Salt Lake = 2.67 12 5 8 2.15( 1) 1 2 3 | 3 5 3 | 2.72 3 | 2.70 4 | 2.57 4 | 2.54 7 western
5 LA Galaxy = 2.53 14 5 7 1.97( 16) 1 2 2 | 4 2 2 | 2.55 5 | 2.57 5 | 2.49 5 | 2.55 6 western
6 New York Red Bulls = 2.36 10 4 11 2.00( 15) 1 2 1 | 3 2 3 | 2.34 7 | 2.48 6 | 2.28 9 | 2.31 11 EASTERN
7 Colorado Rapids = 2.34 12 9 5 2.09( 2) 3 3 1 | 4 6 2 | 2.40 6 | 2.35 7 | 2.20 14 | 2.27 13 western
8 FC Cincinnati = 2.31 15 7 3 1.83( 29) 2 0 0 | 3 2 0 | 2.32 8 | 2.35 8 | 2.29 8 | 2.15 15 EASTERN
9 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.22 11 8 5 2.03( 9) 0 4 0 | 2 6 1 | 2.24 9 | 2.28 9 | 2.09 16 | 2.09 16 western
10 Portland Timbers = 2.20 10 9 6 2.02( 13) 1 2 2 | 3 3 2 | 2.16 12 | 2.18 10 | 2.37 6 | 2.60 4 western
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of July 20 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.34] [ 0.32] [ 0.34] [ 0.35] [ 0.35]
11 New York City FC = 2.20 11 9 5 1.90( 27) 0 2 1 | 1 5 1 | 2.23 10 | 2.12 13 | 2.25 11 | 2.23 14 EASTERN
12 Charlotte FC = 2.19 10 8 7 2.02( 11) 1 1 2 | 3 2 4 | 2.18 11 | 2.18 11 | 2.23 12 | 2.29 12 EASTERN
13 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.15 10 8 7 1.96( 19) 0 4 2 | 1 5 4 | 2.15 13 | 2.12 14 | 2.23 13 | 2.31 10 western
14 Houston Dynamo FC = 2.11 10 7 7 1.94( 26) 0 2 0 | 4 3 1 | 2.04 15 | 2.15 12 | 2.25 10 | 2.47 8 western
15 Orlando City SC = 2.02 9 9 7 1.95( 24) 0 3 1 | 0 5 2 | 1.95 16 | 1.96 16 | 2.36 7 | 2.66 3 EASTERN
16 Minnesota United FC = 1.97 9 10 6 2.08( 6) 1 2 3 | 2 4 4 | 2.05 14 | 2.00 15 | 1.66 20 | 1.40 23 western
17 FC Dallas = 1.87 8 11 6 1.96( 20) 1 2 1 | 2 6 1 | 1.81 18 | 1.81 18 | 2.13 15 | 2.39 9 western
18 Atlanta United = 1.84 7 11 7 1.96( 22) 2 3 0 | 2 5 0 | 1.85 17 | 1.81 17 | 1.87 17 | 1.81 19 EASTERN
19 Philadelphia Union = 1.75 6 10 9 1.87( 28) 0 2 0 | 1 3 1 | 1.71 20 | 1.73 19 | 1.87 18 | 1.95 17 EASTERN
20 CF Montreal = 1.75 6 10 9 2.09( 3) 1 2 2 | 2 3 5 | 1.80 19 | 1.70 20 | 1.65 21 | 1.54 22 EASTERN
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of July 20 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.34] [ 0.32] [ 0.34] [ 0.35] [ 0.35]
21 Austin FC = 1.61 8 10 7 1.96( 23) 1 1 1 | 1 3 2 | 1.56 26 | 1.66 21 | 1.62 22 | 1.55 21 western
22 Chicago Fire FC = 1.61 6 12 7 2.02( 14) 1 4 0 | 2 5 1 | 1.57 25 | 1.55 24 | 1.75 19 | 1.87 18 EASTERN
23 Sporting Kansas City = 1.61 6 14 6 2.06( 8) 0 6 1 | 0 10 2 | 1.62 21 | 1.58 23 | 1.57 23 | 1.56 20 western
24 Nashville SC = 1.58 6 11 8 2.08( 4) 0 4 2 | 1 5 5 | 1.60 22 | 1.61 22 | 1.37 25 | 1.12 27 EASTERN
25 D.C. United = 1.57 6 11 8 2.02( 12) 0 2 1 | 0 4 4 | 1.60 23 | 1.54 26 | 1.50 24 | 1.36 24 EASTERN
26 St. Louis CITY FC = 1.53 4 10 11 2.06( 7) 0 2 3 | 0 7 4 | 1.58 24 | 1.52 27 | 1.33 26 | 1.07 28 western
27 Toronto FC = 1.52 9 14 3 1.96( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 5 1 | 1.54 27 | 1.55 25 | 1.33 27 | 1.17 25 EASTERN
28 New England Revolution = 1.24 7 14 2 1.97( 17) 0 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 1.17 28 | 1.26 28 | 1.28 28 | 1.13 26 EASTERN
29 San Jose Earthquakes = 0.94 4 19 2 2.08( 5) 1 4 0 | 2 9 0 | 0.94 29 | 0.96 29 | 0.80 29 | 0.53 29 western
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 western = 2.06 2.04 ( 1) 14 2.04 ( 1)
2 EASTERN = 1.93 1.96 ( 2) 15 1.96 ( 2)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 EASTERN = 1.93 1.96 ( 2) 15 1.96 ( 2)
1 western = 2.06 2.04 ( 1) 14 2.04 ( 1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 EASTERN = 1.93
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of July 20 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.34] [ 0.32] [ 0.34] [ 0.35] [ 0.35]
2 Columbus Crew SC = 2.78 12 4 7 1.97( 18) 1 1 1 | 2 2 2 | 2.72 4 | 2.81 1 | 3.06 1 | 3.34 1 EASTERN
3 Inter Miami CF = 2.73 16 4 5 1.94( 25) 2 0 1 | 4 2 2 | 2.79 2 | 2.76 2 | 2.66 3 | 2.56 5 EASTERN
6 New York Red Bulls = 2.36 10 4 11 2.00( 15) 1 2 1 | 3 2 3 | 2.34 7 | 2.48 6 | 2.28 9 | 2.31 11 EASTERN
8 FC Cincinnati = 2.31 15 7 3 1.83( 29) 2 0 0 | 3 2 0 | 2.32 8 | 2.35 8 | 2.29 8 | 2.15 15 EASTERN
11 New York City FC = 2.20 11 9 5 1.90( 27) 0 2 1 | 1 5 1 | 2.23 10 | 2.12 13 | 2.25 11 | 2.23 14 EASTERN
12 Charlotte FC = 2.19 10 8 7 2.02( 11) 1 1 2 | 3 2 4 | 2.18 11 | 2.18 11 | 2.23 12 | 2.29 12 EASTERN
15 Orlando City SC = 2.02 9 9 7 1.95( 24) 0 3 1 | 0 5 2 | 1.95 16 | 1.96 16 | 2.36 7 | 2.66 3 EASTERN
18 Atlanta United = 1.84 7 11 7 1.96( 22) 2 3 0 | 2 5 0 | 1.85 17 | 1.81 17 | 1.87 17 | 1.81 19 EASTERN
19 Philadelphia Union = 1.75 6 10 9 1.87( 28) 0 2 0 | 1 3 1 | 1.71 20 | 1.73 19 | 1.87 18 | 1.95 17 EASTERN
20 CF Montreal = 1.75 6 10 9 2.09( 3) 1 2 2 | 2 3 5 | 1.80 19 | 1.70 20 | 1.65 21 | 1.54 22 EASTERN
22 Chicago Fire FC = 1.61 6 12 7 2.02( 14) 1 4 0 | 2 5 1 | 1.57 25 | 1.55 24 | 1.75 19 | 1.87 18 EASTERN
24 Nashville SC = 1.58 6 11 8 2.08( 4) 0 4 2 | 1 5 5 | 1.60 22 | 1.61 22 | 1.37 25 | 1.12 27 EASTERN
25 D.C. United = 1.57 6 11 8 2.02( 12) 0 2 1 | 0 4 4 | 1.60 23 | 1.54 26 | 1.50 24 | 1.36 24 EASTERN
27 Toronto FC = 1.52 9 14 3 1.96( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 5 1 | 1.54 27 | 1.55 25 | 1.33 27 | 1.17 25 EASTERN
28 New England Revolution = 1.24 7 14 2 1.97( 17) 0 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 1.17 28 | 1.26 28 | 1.28 28 | 1.13 26 EASTERN
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 western = 2.06
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of July 20 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.34] [ 0.32] [ 0.34] [ 0.35] [ 0.35]
1 Los Angeles FC = 2.79 14 5 5 2.02( 10) 2 2 1 | 5 3 3 | 2.80 1 | 2.73 3 | 2.96 2 | 3.19 2 western
4 Real Salt Lake = 2.67 12 5 8 2.15( 1) 1 2 3 | 3 5 3 | 2.72 3 | 2.70 4 | 2.57 4 | 2.54 7 western
5 LA Galaxy = 2.53 14 5 7 1.97( 16) 1 2 2 | 4 2 2 | 2.55 5 | 2.57 5 | 2.49 5 | 2.55 6 western
7 Colorado Rapids = 2.34 12 9 5 2.09( 2) 3 3 1 | 4 6 2 | 2.40 6 | 2.35 7 | 2.20 14 | 2.27 13 western
9 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.22 11 8 5 2.03( 9) 0 4 0 | 2 6 1 | 2.24 9 | 2.28 9 | 2.09 16 | 2.09 16 western
10 Portland Timbers = 2.20 10 9 6 2.02( 13) 1 2 2 | 3 3 2 | 2.16 12 | 2.18 10 | 2.37 6 | 2.60 4 western
13 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.15 10 8 7 1.96( 19) 0 4 2 | 1 5 4 | 2.15 13 | 2.12 14 | 2.23 13 | 2.31 10 western
14 Houston Dynamo FC = 2.11 10 7 7 1.94( 26) 0 2 0 | 4 3 1 | 2.04 15 | 2.15 12 | 2.25 10 | 2.47 8 western
16 Minnesota United FC = 1.97 9 10 6 2.08( 6) 1 2 3 | 2 4 4 | 2.05 14 | 2.00 15 | 1.66 20 | 1.40 23 western
17 FC Dallas = 1.87 8 11 6 1.96( 20) 1 2 1 | 2 6 1 | 1.81 18 | 1.81 18 | 2.13 15 | 2.39 9 western
21 Austin FC = 1.61 8 10 7 1.96( 23) 1 1 1 | 1 3 2 | 1.56 26 | 1.66 21 | 1.62 22 | 1.55 21 western
23 Sporting Kansas City = 1.61 6 14 6 2.06( 8) 0 6 1 | 0 10 2 | 1.62 21 | 1.58 23 | 1.57 23 | 1.56 20 western
26 St. Louis CITY FC = 1.53 4 10 11 2.06( 7) 0 2 3 | 0 7 4 | 1.58 24 | 1.52 27 | 1.33 26 | 1.07 28 western
29 San Jose Earthquakes = 0.94 4 19 2 2.08( 5) 1 4 0 | 2 9 0 | 0.94 29 | 0.96 29 | 0.80 29 | 0.53 29 western
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location based on the Rating _ Original Strong TOTAL MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent GOALS UNDERDOG FAV DOG DRAW _ ======================================================================================================================= CF MONTREAL 0.85 0.96 0.79 0.73 0.76 2.58 new england revoluti -135 +433 +321 NEW YORK CITY FC 0.93 0.99 0.92 0.85 0.72 2.06 chicago fire fc -150 +615 +284 columbus crew sc 0.69 0.68 0.73 0.83 1.03 3.51 PHILADELPHIA UNION -114 +290 +376 D.C. UNITED 0.04 0.12 0.08 -0.28 -0.67 3.44 fc dallas +153 +164 +345 INTER MIAMI CF 0.76 0.80 0.76 0.73 0.76 2.83 fc cincinnati -123 +360 +332 CHARLOTTE FC 0.16 0.17 0.05 0.31 0.34 2.22 new york red bulls +152 +218 +246 NASHVILLE SC 0.31 0.37 0.30 0.11 -0.08 2.22 austin fc +131 +256 +250 MINNESOTA UNITED FC 0.16 0.23 0.23 -0.21 -0.56 2.22 seattle sounders fc +153 +217 +247 orlando city sc 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.43 0.75 2.74 SPORTING KANSAS CITY +158 +181 +291 HOUSTON DYNAMO FC 0.93 0.83 0.95 1.28 1.66 2.65 toronto fc -146 +465 +336 REAL SALT LAKE 2.07 2.12 2.09 2.13 2.36 3.74 san jose earthquakes -385 +1171 +684 LA GALAXY 1.03 1.03 1.11 0.98 1.09 3.20 atlanta united -156 +435 +391 PORTLAND TIMBERS 1.00 0.90 1.01 1.39 1.89 3.78 st. louis city fc -148 +370 +426 los angeles fc 0.23 0.24 0.11 0.50 0.74 3.11 VANCOUVER WHITECAPS +132 +201 +323 CF MONTREAL 1.14 1.25 1.08 1.03 1.06 2.58 new england revoluti -183 +629 +362 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT NEW YORK CITY FC 0.99 1.06 0.99 0.92 0.79 2.06 chicago fire fc -162 +682 +293 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT columbus crew sc 1.23 1.23 1.27 1.37 1.58 3.51 PHILADELPHIA UNION -183 +494 +441 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT fc dallas 0.51 0.43 0.47 0.82 1.21 3.44 D.C. UNITED +102 +248 +359 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT INTER MIAMI CF 0.28 0.32 0.28 0.25 0.28 2.83 fc cincinnati +128 +219 +302 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT CHARLOTTE FC 0.18 0.18 0.07 0.32 0.36 2.22 new york red bulls +150 +221 +247 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT NASHVILLE SC 0.43 0.49 0.43 0.23 0.05 2.22 austin fc +114 +297 +256 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT seattle sounders fc 0.40 0.33 0.33 0.77 1.12 2.22 MINNESOTA UNITED FC +118 +285 +254 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT orlando city sc 0.69 0.62 0.65 1.05 1.37 2.74 SPORTING KANSAS CITY -116 +344 +319 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT HOUSTON DYNAMO FC 1.28 1.18 1.31 1.63 2.01 2.65 toronto fc -210 +733 +394 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT REAL SALT LAKE 2.86 2.92 2.89 2.93 3.16 3.74 san jose earthquakes -933 +4048 +1276 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT LA GALAXY 1.41 1.41 1.50 1.36 1.48 3.20 atlanta united -224 +670 +458 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT PORTLAND TIMBERS 2.09 1.99 2.10 2.48 2.97 3.78 st. louis city fc -391 +1184 +694 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT los angeles fc 0.81 0.81 0.68 1.08 1.32 3.11 VANCOUVER WHITECAPS -128 +353 +358 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ CF Montreal 0.89 259 72% New England Revoluti 2 @ New York City FC 0.89 259 72% Chicago Fire FC 3 Columbus Crew SC 0.56 185 65% @ Philadelphia Union 4 FC Dallas 0.14 116 54% @ D.C. United 5 @ Inter Miami CF 0.45 164 62% FC Cincinnati 6 New York Red Bulls 0.11 114 53% @ Charlotte FC 7 @ Nashville SC 0.11 113 53% Austin FC 8 @ Minnesota United FC 0.12 114 53% Seattle Sounders FC 9 @ Sporting Kansas City 0.04 104 51% Orlando City SC 10 @ Houston Dynamo FC 0.79 235 70% Toronto FC 11 @ Real Salt Lake 2.28 930 90% San Jose Earthquakes 12 @ LA Galaxy 1.42 434 81% Atlanta United 13 @ Portland Timbers 1.05 305 75% St. Louis CITY FC 14 Los Angeles FC 0.50 173 63% @ Vancouver Whitecaps endfileTop_of_Page