United States Naval Observatory
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2024 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2024 DECEMBER 7 SATURDAY - MLS CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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FINAL Major League Soccer 2024 through games of December 7 Saturday - MLS CUP Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.34] [ 0.33] [ 0.33]
1 LA Galaxy = 2.77 24 8 7 1.98( 24) 3 2 2 | 7 2 4 | 2.75 1 | 2.77 1 | 2.88 1 | 3.15 1 western
2 Inter Miami CF = 2.69 23 6 8 1.93( 28) 2 0 1 | 6 2 2 | 2.71 2 | 2.74 2 | 2.71 3 | 2.73 5 EASTERN
3 Columbus Crew SC = 2.66 19 8 9 1.98( 22) 1 3 0 | 5 6 3 | 2.65 3 | 2.66 3 | 2.73 2 | 2.79 3 EASTERN
4 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.49 19 10 9 2.04( 10) 2 4 1 | 4 5 2 | 2.43 5 | 2.51 5 | 2.62 4 | 2.85 2 western
5 Los Angeles FC = 2.49 21 10 7 2.04( 9) 4 3 0 | 7 5 2 | 2.56 4 | 2.53 4 | 2.45 6 | 2.39 7 western
6 Real Salt Lake = 2.30 16 9 11 2.02( 13) 2 2 4 | 2 4 6 | 2.40 6 | 2.38 6 | 2.16 12 | 1.97 17 western
7 New York Red Bulls = 2.29 15 10 14 2.04( 8) 3 4 1 | 7 4 2 | 2.28 7 | 2.32 7 | 2.31 7 | 2.37 9 EASTERN
8 Orlando City SC = 2.25 18 14 7 1.93( 29) 0 4 1 | 1 8 2 | 2.16 11 | 2.16 11 | 2.54 5 | 2.76 4 EASTERN
9 Minnesota United FC = 2.24 17 13 7 2.09( 4) 1 5 2 | 4 6 4 | 2.25 9 | 2.26 8 | 2.24 10 | 2.38 8 western
10 FC Cincinnati = 2.19 19 13 5 1.94( 27) 2 2 1 | 4 5 1 | 2.27 8 | 2.22 9 | 2.09 15 | 1.86 19 EASTERN
FINAL Major League Soccer 2024 through games of December 7 Saturday - MLS CUP Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.34] [ 0.33] [ 0.33]
11 Charlotte FC = 2.16 15 13 9 2.02( 15) 1 1 3 | 3 6 6 | 2.13 12 | 2.12 14 | 2.25 9 | 2.36 10 EASTERN
12 Portland Timbers = 2.13 12 12 11 2.06( 7) 2 3 3 | 4 4 4 | 2.17 10 | 2.14 12 | 2.10 14 | 2.10 16 western
13 Houston Dynamo FC = 2.12 15 12 9 2.01( 17) 2 4 2 | 4 6 3 | 2.08 14 | 2.16 10 | 2.14 13 | 2.19 13 western
14 New York City FC = 2.11 16 14 8 1.97( 25) 0 3 2 | 6 6 3 | 2.11 13 | 2.07 15 | 2.16 11 | 2.21 12 EASTERN
15 Atlanta United = 2.10 13 16 10 2.08( 5) 4 4 1 | 7 9 2 | 2.06 15 | 2.00 16 | 2.28 8 | 2.40 6 EASTERN
16 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.08 15 15 8 2.08( 6) 2 8 1 | 3 11 2 | 2.04 16 | 2.14 13 | 2.08 17 | 2.16 14 western
17 Philadelphia Union = 1.93 9 15 10 1.99( 21) 0 5 0 | 2 10 1 | 1.82 19 | 1.87 18 | 2.09 16 | 2.23 11 EASTERN
18 FC Dallas = 1.93 11 15 8 2.00( 20) 2 3 1 | 3 7 3 | 1.91 18 | 1.86 19 | 2.01 18 | 2.10 15 western
19 Colorado Rapids = 1.87 15 16 5 2.10( 3) 1 6 2 | 3 9 4 | 1.97 17 | 1.99 17 | 1.58 23 | 1.33 24 western
20 Austin FC = 1.80 11 14 9 2.03( 11) 1 2 3 | 2 5 4 | 1.74 23 | 1.79 20 | 1.84 19 | 1.94 18 western
FINAL Major League Soccer 2024 through games of December 7 Saturday - MLS CUP Championship
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.34] [ 0.33] [ 0.33]
21 CF Montreal = 1.76 11 14 10 1.97( 26) 1 3 1 | 2 4 6 | 1.79 20 | 1.68 22 | 1.76 20 | 1.76 20 EASTERN
22 St. Louis CITY FC = 1.73 8 13 13 2.02( 14) 1 4 2 | 1 8 3 | 1.76 22 | 1.69 21 | 1.72 21 | 1.68 21 western
23 D.C. United = 1.71 10 14 10 2.00( 18) 1 2 2 | 2 6 4 | 1.76 21 | 1.67 23 | 1.66 22 | 1.54 22 EASTERN
24 Sporting Kansas City = 1.59 8 19 7 2.10( 2) 1 6 1 | 2 11 2 | 1.61 24 | 1.58 25 | 1.52 24 | 1.43 23 western
25 Nashville SC = 1.56 9 16 9 2.00( 19) 0 4 2 | 1 6 5 | 1.57 25 | 1.58 24 | 1.46 25 | 1.32 25 EASTERN
26 Chicago Fire FC = 1.45 7 18 9 2.01( 16) 1 5 0 | 3 8 2 | 1.52 26 | 1.41 27 | 1.34 26 | 1.16 26 EASTERN
27 Toronto FC = 1.40 11 19 4 1.98( 23) 0 4 0 | 1 8 1 | 1.43 27 | 1.45 26 | 1.23 27 | 1.05 27 EASTERN
28 New England Revolution = 1.12 9 21 4 2.03( 12) 0 5 0 | 2 10 0 | 0.97 29 | 1.19 28 | 1.03 29 | 0.86 29 EASTERN
29 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.11 6 25 3 2.11( 1) 2 5 1 | 3 10 1 | 1.09 28 | 1.08 29 | 1.03 28 | 0.93 28 western
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printstop endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 western = 2.06 2.05 ( 1) 14 2.05 ( 1) 2 EASTERN = 1.97 1.96 ( 2) 15 1.96 ( 2) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 2 EASTERN = 1.97 1.96 ( 2) 15 1.96 ( 2) 1 western = 2.06 2.05 ( 1) 14 2.05 ( 1) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 EASTERN = 1.97 FINAL Major League Soccer 2024 through games of December 7 Saturday - MLS CUP Championship RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.34] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 2 Inter Miami CF = 2.69 23 6 8 1.93( 28) 2 0 1 | 6 2 2 | 2.71 2 | 2.74 2 | 2.71 3 | 2.73 5 EASTERN 3 Columbus Crew SC = 2.66 19 8 9 1.98( 22) 1 3 0 | 5 6 3 | 2.65 3 | 2.66 3 | 2.73 2 | 2.79 3 EASTERN 7 New York Red Bulls = 2.29 15 10 14 2.04( 8) 3 4 1 | 7 4 2 | 2.28 7 | 2.32 7 | 2.31 7 | 2.37 9 EASTERN 8 Orlando City SC = 2.25 18 14 7 1.93( 29) 0 4 1 | 1 8 2 | 2.16 11 | 2.16 11 | 2.54 5 | 2.76 4 EASTERN 10 FC Cincinnati = 2.19 19 13 5 1.94( 27) 2 2 1 | 4 5 1 | 2.27 8 | 2.22 9 | 2.09 15 | 1.86 19 EASTERN 11 Charlotte FC = 2.16 15 13 9 2.02( 15) 1 1 3 | 3 6 6 | 2.13 12 | 2.12 14 | 2.25 9 | 2.36 10 EASTERN 14 New York City FC = 2.11 16 14 8 1.97( 25) 0 3 2 | 6 6 3 | 2.11 13 | 2.07 15 | 2.16 11 | 2.21 12 EASTERN 15 Atlanta United = 2.10 13 16 10 2.08( 5) 4 4 1 | 7 9 2 | 2.06 15 | 2.00 16 | 2.28 8 | 2.40 6 EASTERN 17 Philadelphia Union = 1.93 9 15 10 1.99( 21) 0 5 0 | 2 10 1 | 1.82 19 | 1.87 18 | 2.09 16 | 2.23 11 EASTERN 21 CF Montreal = 1.76 11 14 10 1.97( 26) 1 3 1 | 2 4 6 | 1.79 20 | 1.68 22 | 1.76 20 | 1.76 20 EASTERN 23 D.C. United = 1.71 10 14 10 2.00( 18) 1 2 2 | 2 6 4 | 1.76 21 | 1.67 23 | 1.66 22 | 1.54 22 EASTERN 25 Nashville SC = 1.56 9 16 9 2.00( 19) 0 4 2 | 1 6 5 | 1.57 25 | 1.58 24 | 1.46 25 | 1.32 25 EASTERN 26 Chicago Fire FC = 1.45 7 18 9 2.01( 16) 1 5 0 | 3 8 2 | 1.52 26 | 1.41 27 | 1.34 26 | 1.16 26 EASTERN 27 Toronto FC = 1.40 11 19 4 1.98( 23) 0 4 0 | 1 8 1 | 1.43 27 | 1.45 26 | 1.23 27 | 1.05 27 EASTERN 28 New England Revolution = 1.12 9 21 4 2.03( 12) 0 5 0 | 2 10 0 | 0.97 29 | 1.19 28 | 1.03 29 | 0.86 29 EASTERN _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 western = 2.06 FINAL Major League Soccer 2024 through games of December 7 Saturday - MLS CUP Championship RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.34] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 1 LA Galaxy = 2.77 24 8 7 1.98( 24) 3 2 2 | 7 2 4 | 2.75 1 | 2.77 1 | 2.88 1 | 3.15 1 western 4 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.49 19 10 9 2.04( 10) 2 4 1 | 4 5 2 | 2.43 5 | 2.51 5 | 2.62 4 | 2.85 2 western 5 Los Angeles FC = 2.49 21 10 7 2.04( 9) 4 3 0 | 7 5 2 | 2.56 4 | 2.53 4 | 2.45 6 | 2.39 7 western 6 Real Salt Lake = 2.30 16 9 11 2.02( 13) 2 2 4 | 2 4 6 | 2.40 6 | 2.38 6 | 2.16 12 | 1.97 17 western 9 Minnesota United FC = 2.24 17 13 7 2.09( 4) 1 5 2 | 4 6 4 | 2.25 9 | 2.26 8 | 2.24 10 | 2.38 8 western 12 Portland Timbers = 2.13 12 12 11 2.06( 7) 2 3 3 | 4 4 4 | 2.17 10 | 2.14 12 | 2.10 14 | 2.10 16 western 13 Houston Dynamo FC = 2.12 15 12 9 2.01( 17) 2 4 2 | 4 6 3 | 2.08 14 | 2.16 10 | 2.14 13 | 2.19 13 western 16 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.08 15 15 8 2.08( 6) 2 8 1 | 3 11 2 | 2.04 16 | 2.14 13 | 2.08 17 | 2.16 14 western 18 FC Dallas = 1.93 11 15 8 2.00( 20) 2 3 1 | 3 7 3 | 1.91 18 | 1.86 19 | 2.01 18 | 2.10 15 western 19 Colorado Rapids = 1.87 15 16 5 2.10( 3) 1 6 2 | 3 9 4 | 1.97 17 | 1.99 17 | 1.58 23 | 1.33 24 western 20 Austin FC = 1.80 11 14 9 2.03( 11) 1 2 3 | 2 5 4 | 1.74 23 | 1.79 20 | 1.84 19 | 1.94 18 western 22 St. Louis CITY FC = 1.73 8 13 13 2.02( 14) 1 4 2 | 1 8 3 | 1.76 22 | 1.69 21 | 1.72 21 | 1.68 21 western 24 Sporting Kansas City = 1.59 8 19 7 2.10( 2) 1 6 1 | 2 11 2 | 1.61 24 | 1.58 25 | 1.52 24 | 1.43 23 western 29 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.11 6 25 3 2.11( 1) 2 5 1 | 3 10 1 | 1.09 28 | 1.08 29 | 1.03 28 | 0.93 28 western _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location based on the Rating _ Original Strong TOTAL MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent GOALS UNDERDOG FAV DRAW DOG _ to win to win _ ======================================================================================================================= EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG endfileTop_of_Page