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Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


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2019 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of SEPTEMBER 15 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of September 15 Sunday                                                                                   
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.59]                                                   [  0.57]       [  0.59]       [  0.57]
   1  Los Angeles FC          =   2.68   19   4   7    2.03(   6)   2  0  3 |   8  1  4 |    2.89    1 |    2.84    1 |    2.50    1  western
   2  New York City FC        =   2.49   16   5   9    1.89(  24)   2  1  1 |   3  3  3 |    2.39    3 |    2.49    2 |    2.49    2  EASTERN
   3  Atlanta United FC       =   2.30   15  11   3    1.97(  19)   1  3  1 |   4  6  1 |    2.45    2 |    2.47    3 |    2.02   15  EASTERN
   4  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.23   14   9   7    2.00(  14)   1  2  2 |   3  5  3 |    2.21    4 |    2.27    4 |    2.15   10  western
   5  Philadelphia Union      =   2.22   15   8   7    1.91(  23)   1  1  3 |   5  3  3 |    2.20    5 |    2.19    6 |    2.31    4  EASTERN
   6  Portland Timbers        =   2.13   13  12   4    2.07(   2)   3  4  0 |   6  7  0 |    2.19    6 |    2.18    7 |    2.00   16  western
   7  D.C. United             =   2.12   12  10   9    2.01(   9)   1  5  1 |   3  7  1 |    2.13   10 |    2.15    9 |    2.05   14  EASTERN
   8  Real Salt Lake          =   2.12   14  12   4    2.03(   5)   4  3  0 |   4  8  2 |    2.15    9 |    2.09   10 |    2.20    6  western
   9  Minnesota United FC     =   2.09   14  10   6    1.98(  17)   1  2  2 |   5  3  3 |    1.98   12 |    2.02   12 |    2.34    3  western
  10  FC Dallas               =   2.09   12  11   7    2.00(  13)   2  2  1 |   6  4  2 |    2.17    7 |    2.17    8 |    1.87   18  western
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of September 15 Sunday                                                                                   
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.59]                                                   [  0.57]       [  0.59]       [  0.57]
  11  LA Galaxy               =   2.08   14  13   3    2.04(   4)   2  3  2 |   6  6  3 |    2.07   11 |    2.05   11 |    2.16    8  western
  12  New York Red Bulls      =   2.06   12  13   5    1.97(  20)   2  4  1 |   5  5  1 |    2.16    8 |    2.20    5 |    1.69   21  EASTERN
  13  Toronto FC              =   2.03   12  10   9    1.94(  22)   3  3  1 |   4  6  3 |    1.96   15 |    2.00   14 |    2.12   12  EASTERN
  14  Sporting Kansas City    =   1.96   10  13   7    2.01(  10)   3  4  0 |   4  9  0 |    1.95   16 |    2.02   13 |    1.82   19  western
  15  Chicago Fire            =   1.96    9  12  10    2.01(  12)   2  4  2 |   4  5  5 |    1.96   13 |    1.88   15 |    2.18    7  EASTERN
  16  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.94   13  12   5    2.00(  15)   0  3  1 |   2  6  4 |    1.96   14 |    1.88   16 |    2.11   13  western
  17  Columbus Crew SC        =   1.91    9  15   7    1.98(  18)   2  4  1 |   3  9  1 |    1.77   19 |    1.81   19 |    2.16    9  EASTERN
  18  New England Revolution  =   1.91   10  10  10    1.96(  21)   0  4  2 |   1  4  5 |    1.89   17 |    1.81   18 |    2.15   11  EASTERN
  19  Colorado Rapids         =   1.82   10  15   6    1.99(  16)   2  3  1 |   3  8  3 |    1.70   21 |    1.64   21 |    2.22    5  western
  20  Houston Dynamo          =   1.80   10  16   4    2.01(  11)   0  6  0 |   3  9  2 |    1.80   18 |    1.84   17 |    1.70   20  western
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of September 15 Sunday                                                                                   
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.59]                                                   [  0.57]       [  0.59]       [  0.57]
  21  Orlando City SC         =   1.71    9  13   9    2.03(   7)   0  4  4 |   1  7  6 |    1.74   20 |    1.62   22 |    1.91   17  EASTERN
  22  Montreal Impact         =   1.64   11  16   4    2.01(   8)   2  4  1 |   4  6  3 |    1.66   22 |    1.71   20 |    1.04   24  EASTERN
  23  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.59    7  15   9    2.06(   3)   1  4  2 |   4  7  4 |    1.63   23 |    1.58   23 |    1.64   22  western
  24  FC Cincinnati           =   1.12    6  21   3    2.08(   1)   0  6  1 |   1 10  1 |    0.99   24 |    1.09   24 |    1.18   23  EASTERN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  western                 =   2.04       2.04  (  1)     12       2.04  (  1)
   2  EASTERN                 =   1.98       1.96  (  2)     12       1.96  (  2)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  EASTERN                 =   1.98       1.96  (  2)     12       1.96  (  2)
   1  western                 =   2.04       2.04  (  1)     12       2.04  (  1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  EASTERN                 =   1.98       1.96  (  2)   TEAMS= 12       1.96  (  2)
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of September 15 Sunday                                                                                   
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.59]                                                   [  0.57]       [  0.59]       [  0.57]
   2  New York City FC        =   2.49   16   5   9    1.89(  24)   2  1  1 |   3  3  3 |    2.39    3 |    2.49    2 |    2.49    2  EASTERN
   3  Atlanta United FC       =   2.30   15  11   3    1.97(  19)   1  3  1 |   4  6  1 |    2.45    2 |    2.47    3 |    2.02   15  EASTERN
   5  Philadelphia Union      =   2.22   15   8   7    1.91(  23)   1  1  3 |   5  3  3 |    2.20    5 |    2.19    6 |    2.31    4  EASTERN
   7  D.C. United             =   2.12   12  10   9    2.01(   9)   1  5  1 |   3  7  1 |    2.13   10 |    2.15    9 |    2.05   14  EASTERN
  12  New York Red Bulls      =   2.06   12  13   5    1.97(  20)   2  4  1 |   5  5  1 |    2.16    8 |    2.20    5 |    1.69   21  EASTERN
  13  Toronto FC              =   2.03   12  10   9    1.94(  22)   3  3  1 |   4  6  3 |    1.96   15 |    2.00   14 |    2.12   12  EASTERN
  15  Chicago Fire            =   1.96    9  12  10    2.01(  12)   2  4  2 |   4  5  5 |    1.96   13 |    1.88   15 |    2.18    7  EASTERN
  17  Columbus Crew SC        =   1.91    9  15   7    1.98(  18)   2  4  1 |   3  9  1 |    1.77   19 |    1.81   19 |    2.16    9  EASTERN
  18  New England Revolution  =   1.91   10  10  10    1.96(  21)   0  4  2 |   1  4  5 |    1.89   17 |    1.81   18 |    2.15   11  EASTERN
  21  Orlando City SC         =   1.71    9  13   9    2.03(   7)   0  4  4 |   1  7  6 |    1.74   20 |    1.62   22 |    1.91   17  EASTERN
  22  Montreal Impact         =   1.64   11  16   4    2.01(   8)   2  4  1 |   4  6  3 |    1.66   22 |    1.71   20 |    1.04   24  EASTERN
  24  FC Cincinnati           =   1.12    6  21   3    2.08(   1)   0  6  1 |   1 10  1 |    0.99   24 |    1.09   24 |    1.18   23  EASTERN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  western                 =   2.04       2.04  (  1)   TEAMS= 12       2.04  (  1)
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of September 15 Sunday                                                                                   
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.59]                                                   [  0.57]       [  0.59]       [  0.57]
   1  Los Angeles FC          =   2.68   19   4   7    2.03(   6)   2  0  3 |   8  1  4 |    2.89    1 |    2.84    1 |    2.50    1  western
   4  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.23   14   9   7    2.00(  14)   1  2  2 |   3  5  3 |    2.21    4 |    2.27    4 |    2.15   10  western
   6  Portland Timbers        =   2.13   13  12   4    2.07(   2)   3  4  0 |   6  7  0 |    2.19    6 |    2.18    7 |    2.00   16  western
   8  Real Salt Lake          =   2.12   14  12   4    2.03(   5)   4  3  0 |   4  8  2 |    2.15    9 |    2.09   10 |    2.20    6  western
   9  Minnesota United FC     =   2.09   14  10   6    1.98(  17)   1  2  2 |   5  3  3 |    1.98   12 |    2.02   12 |    2.34    3  western
  10  FC Dallas               =   2.09   12  11   7    2.00(  13)   2  2  1 |   6  4  2 |    2.17    7 |    2.17    8 |    1.87   18  western
  11  LA Galaxy               =   2.08   14  13   3    2.04(   4)   2  3  2 |   6  6  3 |    2.07   11 |    2.05   11 |    2.16    8  western
  14  Sporting Kansas City    =   1.96   10  13   7    2.01(  10)   3  4  0 |   4  9  0 |    1.95   16 |    2.02   13 |    1.82   19  western
  16  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.94   13  12   5    2.00(  15)   0  3  1 |   2  6  4 |    1.96   14 |    1.88   16 |    2.11   13  western
  19  Colorado Rapids         =   1.82   10  15   6    1.99(  16)   2  3  1 |   3  8  3 |    1.70   21 |    1.64   21 |    2.22    5  western
  20  Houston Dynamo          =   1.80   10  16   4    2.01(  11)   0  6  0 |   3  9  2 |    1.80   18 |    1.84   17 |    1.70   20  western
  23  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.59    7  15   9    2.06(   3)   1  4  2 |   4  7  4 |    1.63   23 |    1.58   23 |    1.64   22  western
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== atlanta united fc 0.59 0.89 0.79 0.26 FC CINCINNATI 179 64% 2.78 PORTLAND TIMBERS 0.65 0.60 0.57 0.89 new york red bulls 189 65% 2.92 SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC 0.73 0.62 0.69 0.85 fc dallas 204 67% 2.99 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Atlanta United FC 0.94 245 71% @ FC Cincinnati 2 @ Portland Timbers 0.66 189 65% New York Red Bulls 3 @ Seattle Sounders FC 0.57 175 64% FC Dallas endfile

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