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Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


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2018 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of NOVEMBER 4 SUNDAY - Conference Semifinals


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of November 4 Sunday - Conference Semifinals                                                             
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  New York Red Bulls      =   2.71   22   8   5    2.02(   8)   5  0  0 |  11  3  3 |    2.74    1 |    2.71    2 |    2.64    2  EASTERN
   2  Atlanta United FC       =   2.65   22   7   6    1.99(  13)   0  3  2 |   6  5  5 |    2.71    2 |    2.73    1 |    2.55    3  EASTERN
   3  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.58   18   8   9    1.95(  22)   2  2  2 |   5  3  4 |    2.53    3 |    2.54    3 |    2.76    1  western
   4  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.36   18  12   5    1.98(  16)   2  4  2 |   5  6  3 |    2.35    5 |    2.35    5 |    2.38    4  western
   5  Portland Timbers        =   2.27   17  10   9    1.97(  20)   3  3  2 |   7  4  3 |    2.24    6 |    2.29    6 |    2.35    5  western
   6  New York City FC        =   2.26   17  11   8    1.98(  17)   2  4  3 |   5  6  5 |    2.41    4 |    2.38    4 |    2.02   13  EASTERN
   7  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.16   16  11   9    2.04(   4)   2  3  3 |   6  6  4 |    2.13    7 |    2.24    7 |    2.24    6  EASTERN
   8  D.C. United             =   2.14   14  12   9    2.04(   5)   2  6  1 |   5  8  4 |    2.11   10 |    1.99   11 |    2.20    7  EASTERN
   9  Los Angeles FC          =   2.11   16  10   9    1.94(  23)   2  5  1 |   4  5  3 |    2.12    8 |    2.07   10 |    2.07   12  western
  10  Toronto FC              =   2.03   10  18   6    2.00(  12)   1  4  2 |   1  9  4 |    2.11   11 |    2.10    9 |    1.87   15  EASTERN
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of November 4 Sunday - Conference Semifinals                                                             
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  11  FC Dallas               =   2.03   16  10   9    1.96(  21)   3  4  2 |   5  6  4 |    2.12    9 |    2.14    8 |    1.83   17  western
  12  Philadelphia Union      =   2.01   15  15   5    2.06(   2)   2  4  1 |   5 10  3 |    1.96   13 |    1.96   12 |    2.12   10  EASTERN
  13  LA Galaxy               =   1.99   13  12   9    1.99(  15)   2  4  2 |   4  6  5 |    1.95   14 |    1.91   15 |    2.07   11  western
  14  Montreal Impact         =   1.98   14  16   4    2.03(   7)   3  3  1 |   6  8  3 |    1.89   15 |    1.89   16 |    2.17    8  EASTERN
  15  Real Salt Lake          =   1.97   15  13   8    1.99(  14)   4  3  2 |   6  8  2 |    1.88   17 |    1.95   13 |    2.15    9  western
  16  Houston Dynamo          =   1.93   10  16   8    1.98(  19)   2  6  0 |   4  8  2 |    2.01   12 |    1.94   14 |    1.74   18  western
  17  New England Revolution  =   1.87   10  13  11    2.03(   6)   2  2  3 |   5  5  6 |    1.89   16 |    1.88   17 |    1.84   16  EASTERN
  18  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.76   13  13   8    1.98(  18)   2  5  1 |   4  7  3 |    1.69   19 |    1.84   18 |    1.90   14  western
  19  Chicago Fire            =   1.73    8  18   8    2.04(   3)   1  4  2 |   4  9  5 |    1.78   18 |    1.73   19 |    1.61   19  EASTERN
  20  Colorado Rapids         =   1.42    8  19   7    2.02(   9)   0  7  1 |   1 12  1 |    1.31   22 |    1.33   22 |    1.57   20  western
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of November 4 Sunday - Conference Semifinals                                                             
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  21  Minnesota United FC     =   1.40   11  20   3    2.01(  10)   1  7  1 |   4 10  1 |    1.40   20 |    1.41   20 |    1.38   21  western
  22  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.37    4  21   9    2.01(  11)   0  8  0 |   0 13  1 |    1.40   21 |    1.28   23 |    1.29   22  western
  23  Orlando City SC         =   1.28    8  22   4    2.10(   1)   2  6  0 |   4 13  1 |    1.29   23 |    1.34   21 |    1.26   23  EASTERN
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Conference Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.07       2.07  (  1)     11       2.07  (  1)
   2  western                 =   1.94       1.93  (  2)     12       1.93  (  2)


      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.07       2.07  (  1)     11       2.07  (  1)
   2  western                 =   1.94       1.93  (  2)     12       1.93  (  2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.07       2.07  (  1)   TEAMS= 11       2.07  (  1)
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of November 4 Sunday - Conference Semifinals                                                             
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   2  Atlanta United FC       =   2.65   22   7   6    1.99(  13)   0  3  2 |   6  5  5 |    2.71    2 |    2.73    1 |    2.55    3  EASTERN
  19  Chicago Fire            =   1.73    8  18   8    2.04(   3)   1  4  2 |   4  9  5 |    1.78   18 |    1.73   19 |    1.61   19  EASTERN
   7  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.16   16  11   9    2.04(   4)   2  3  3 |   6  6  4 |    2.13    7 |    2.24    7 |    2.24    6  EASTERN
   8  D.C. United             =   2.14   14  12   9    2.04(   5)   2  6  1 |   5  8  4 |    2.11   10 |    1.99   11 |    2.20    7  EASTERN
  14  Montreal Impact         =   1.98   14  16   4    2.03(   7)   3  3  1 |   6  8  3 |    1.89   15 |    1.89   16 |    2.17    8  EASTERN
  17  New England Revolution  =   1.87   10  13  11    2.03(   6)   2  2  3 |   5  5  6 |    1.89   16 |    1.88   17 |    1.84   16  EASTERN
   6  New York City FC        =   2.26   17  11   8    1.98(  17)   2  4  3 |   5  6  5 |    2.41    4 |    2.38    4 |    2.02   13  EASTERN
   1  New York Red Bulls      =   2.71   22   8   5    2.02(   8)   5  0  0 |  11  3  3 |    2.74    1 |    2.71    2 |    2.64    2  EASTERN
  23  Orlando City SC         =   1.28    8  22   4    2.10(   1)   2  6  0 |   4 13  1 |    1.29   23 |    1.34   21 |    1.26   23  EASTERN
  12  Philadelphia Union      =   2.01   15  15   5    2.06(   2)   2  4  1 |   5 10  3 |    1.96   13 |    1.96   12 |    2.12   10  EASTERN
  10  Toronto FC              =   2.03   10  18   6    2.00(  12)   1  4  2 |   1  9  4 |    2.11   11 |    2.10    9 |    1.87   15  EASTERN
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  western                 =   1.94       1.93  (  2)   TEAMS= 12       1.93  (  2)
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of November 4 Sunday - Conference Semifinals                                                             
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  20  Colorado Rapids         =   1.42    8  19   7    2.02(   9)   0  7  1 |   1 12  1 |    1.31   22 |    1.33   22 |    1.57   20  western
  11  FC Dallas               =   2.03   16  10   9    1.96(  21)   3  4  2 |   5  6  4 |    2.12    9 |    2.14    8 |    1.83   17  western
  16  Houston Dynamo          =   1.93   10  16   8    1.98(  19)   2  6  0 |   4  8  2 |    2.01   12 |    1.94   14 |    1.74   18  western
  13  LA Galaxy               =   1.99   13  12   9    1.99(  15)   2  4  2 |   4  6  5 |    1.95   14 |    1.91   15 |    2.07   11  western
   9  Los Angeles FC          =   2.11   16  10   9    1.94(  23)   2  5  1 |   4  5  3 |    2.12    8 |    2.07   10 |    2.07   12  western
  21  Minnesota United FC     =   1.40   11  20   3    2.01(  10)   1  7  1 |   4 10  1 |    1.40   20 |    1.41   20 |    1.38   21  western
   5  Portland Timbers        =   2.27   17  10   9    1.97(  20)   3  3  2 |   7  4  3 |    2.24    6 |    2.29    6 |    2.35    5  western
  15  Real Salt Lake          =   1.97   15  13   8    1.99(  14)   4  3  2 |   6  8  2 |    1.88   17 |    1.95   13 |    2.15    9  western
  22  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.37    4  21   9    2.01(  11)   0  8  0 |   0 13  1 |    1.40   21 |    1.28   23 |    1.29   22  western
   4  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.36   18  12   5    1.98(  16)   2  4  2 |   5  6  3 |    2.35    5 |    2.35    5 |    2.38    4  western
   3  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.58   18   8   9    1.95(  22)   2  2  2 |   5  3  4 |    2.53    3 |    2.54    3 |    2.76    1  western
  18  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.76   13  13   8    1.98(  18)   2  5  1 |   4  7  3 |    1.69   19 |    1.84   18 |    1.90   14  western
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "Predictions" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG =========================================================================================================================== SEATTLE_SOUNDERS 0.79 0.81 0.75 0.73 portland_timbers SEATTLE_SOUNDERS 1.50 - 0.80 0.69 2.30 portland_timbers ATLANTA_UNITED_F 1.08 0.99 1.05 1.23 new_york_city_fc ATLANTA_UNITED_F 2.00 - 1.04 0.97 3.04 new_york_city_fc NEW_YORK_RED_BUL 1.24 1.31 1.17 1.10 columbus_crew_sc NEW_YORK_RED_BUL 1.71 - 0.38 1.33 2.09 columbus_crew_sc SPORTING_KANSAS_ 1.31 1.34 1.29 1.30 real_salt_lake SPORTING_KANSAS_ 2.13 - 0.82 1.32 2.95 real_salt_lake FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG @ Seattle Sounders FC 0.73 0.64 0.82 Portland Timbers @ Atlanta United FC 1.06 1.10 1.01 New York City FC @ Sporting Kansas City 1.17 0.99 1.36 Real Salt Lake @ New York Red Bulls 1.26 1.09 1.42 Columbus Crew SC FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 PCT=confidence FAVORITE SPREAD ODDS PCT% UNDERDOG 1 @ Seattle Sounders FC 0.58 185 65% Portland Timbers ` 2 @ Atlanta United FC 0.99 280 74% New York City FC ` 3 @ Sporting Kansas City 1.11 312 76% Real Salt Lake ` 4 @ New York Red Bulls 1.38 405 80% Columbus Crew SC ` endfile home=.6983 Major League Soccer 2018 through games of November 4 Sunday - Conference Semifinals arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank 1 New York Red Bulls 22 8 5 2.9904735 2.0128879 12 New York Red Bulls 1 35.000000 2 Atlanta United FC 22 7 6 2.7504782 1.9928273 15 Atlanta United FC 2 35.000000 3 Sporting Kansas City 18 8 9 2.5252496 1.9549240 21 Sporting Kansas City 3 35.000000 4 New York City FC 17 11 8 2.4558367 1.9812602 19 New York City FC 4 36.000000 5 Portland Timbers 17 10 9 2.4553560 1.9819599 18 Portland Timbers 5 36.000000 6 Seattle Sounders FC 18 12 5 2.3349466 2.0064792 13 Seattle Sounders FC 6 35.000000 7 Columbus Crew SC 16 11 9 2.3053276 2.0248616 7 Columbus Crew SC 7 36.000000 8 FC Dallas 16 10 9 2.3037214 1.9490829 22 FC Dallas 8 35.000000 9 Los Angeles FC 16 10 9 2.2932432 1.9469228 23 Los Angeles FC 9 35.000000 10 D.C. United 14 12 9 2.2602112 2.0439973 4 D.C. United 10 35.000000 11 Real Salt Lake 15 13 8 2.1167886 1.9856960 17 Real Salt Lake 11 36.000000 12 Philadelphia Union 15 15 5 2.0571263 2.0524536 2 Philadelphia Union 12 35.000000 13 LA Galaxy 13 12 9 2.0226440 1.9863414 16 LA Galaxy 13 34.000000 14 Montreal Impact 14 16 4 1.8170739 2.0160379 11 Montreal Impact 14 34.000000 15 Houston Dynamo 10 16 8 1.7806366 2.0008853 14 Houston Dynamo 15 34.000000 16 New England Revolution 10 13 11 1.7783173 2.0302915 5 New England Revolution 16 34.000000 17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 13 13 8 1.6906688 1.9716847 20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 17 34.000000 18 Toronto FC 10 18 6 1.6887735 2.0187467 10 Toronto FC 18 34.000000 19 Chicago Fire 8 18 8 1.4855130 2.0510418 3 Chicago Fire 19 34.000000 20 Minnesota United FC 11 20 3 1.3700962 2.0212812 8 Minnesota United FC 20 34.000000 21 Colorado Rapids 8 19 7 1.2633385 2.0258166 6 Colorado Rapids 21 34.000000 22 San Jose Earthquakes 4 21 9 1.1309634 2.0210704 9 San Jose Earthquakes 22 34.000000 23 Orlando City SC 8 22 4 1.1232158 2.1080068 1 Orlando City SC 23 34.000000 arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank 2 Atlanta United FC 22 7 6 2.7504782 1.9928273 15 Atlanta United FC 2 35.000000 19 Chicago Fire 8 18 8 1.4855130 2.0510418 3 Chicago Fire 19 34.000000 21 Colorado Rapids 8 19 7 1.2633385 2.0258166 6 Colorado Rapids 21 34.000000 7 Columbus Crew SC 16 11 9 2.3053276 2.0248616 7 Columbus Crew SC 7 36.000000 10 D.C. United 14 12 9 2.2602112 2.0439973 4 D.C. United 10 35.000000 8 FC Dallas 16 10 9 2.3037214 1.9490829 22 FC Dallas 8 35.000000 15 Houston Dynamo 10 16 8 1.7806366 2.0008853 14 Houston Dynamo 15 34.000000 13 LA Galaxy 13 12 9 2.0226440 1.9863414 16 LA Galaxy 13 34.000000 9 Los Angeles FC 16 10 9 2.2932432 1.9469228 23 Los Angeles FC 9 35.000000 20 Minnesota United FC 11 20 3 1.3700962 2.0212812 8 Minnesota United FC 20 34.000000 14 Montreal Impact 14 16 4 1.8170739 2.0160379 11 Montreal Impact 14 34.000000 16 New England Revolution 10 13 11 1.7783173 2.0302915 5 New England Revolution 16 34.000000 4 New York City FC 17 11 8 2.4558367 1.9812602 19 New York City FC 4 36.000000 1 New York Red Bulls 22 8 5 2.9904735 2.0128879 12 New York Red Bulls 1 35.000000 23 Orlando City SC 8 22 4 1.1232158 2.1080068 1 Orlando City SC 23 34.000000 12 Philadelphia Union 15 15 5 2.0571263 2.0524536 2 Philadelphia Union 12 35.000000 5 Portland Timbers 17 10 9 2.4553560 1.9819599 18 Portland Timbers 5 36.000000 11 Real Salt Lake 15 13 8 2.1167886 1.9856960 17 Real Salt Lake 11 36.000000 22 San Jose Earthquakes 4 21 9 1.1309634 2.0210704 9 San Jose Earthquakes 22 34.000000 6 Seattle Sounders FC 18 12 5 2.3349466 2.0064792 13 Seattle Sounders FC 6 35.000000 3 Sporting Kansas City 18 8 9 2.5252496 1.9549240 21 Sporting Kansas City 3 35.000000 18 Toronto FC 10 18 6 1.6887735 2.0187467 10 Toronto FC 18 34.000000 17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 13 13 8 1.6906688 1.9716847 20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 17 34.000000 arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank endfile home=.6983

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