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Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


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2018 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of DECEMBER 8 SATURDAY - MLS CUP League Championship Game


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
FINAL Major League Soccer 2018 through games of December 8 Saturday - MLS CUP League Championship Game                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  Atlanta United FC       =   2.74   25   8   6    2.00(  16)   2  4  2 |   9  6  5 |    2.78    1 |    2.78    1 |    2.67    1  EASTERN
   2  New York Red Bulls      =   2.69   24   9   5    2.04(   6)   6  1  0 |  13  4  3 |    2.74    2 |    2.72    2 |    2.61    2  EASTERN
   3  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.53   19   9  10    1.94(  22)   2  3  3 |   5  4  5 |    2.51    3 |    2.52    3 |    2.59    3  western
   4  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.36   19  12   5    1.97(  20)   3  4  2 |   6  6  3 |    2.36    5 |    2.36    4 |    2.38    5  western
   5  Portland Timbers        =   2.31   18  12  10    2.06(   4)   4  5  3 |   8  6  4 |    2.24    6 |    2.30    6 |    2.49    4  western
   6  New York City FC        =   2.20   17  12   8    2.03(   9)   2  5  3 |   5  7  5 |    2.40    4 |    2.36    5 |    1.85   15  EASTERN
   7  D.C. United             =   2.16   14  12   9    2.04(   7)   2  6  1 |   5  8  4 |    2.11    9 |    1.99   11 |    2.28    7  EASTERN
   8  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.14   16  12   9    2.08(   2)   2  4  3 |   6  7  4 |    2.09   11 |    2.22    7 |    2.28    6  EASTERN
   9  Toronto FC              =   2.08   10  18   6    2.00(  15)   1  4  2 |   1  9  4 |    2.11   10 |    2.10    9 |    2.02   12  EASTERN
  10  Los Angeles FC          =   2.03   16  10   9    1.94(  23)   2  5  1 |   4  5  3 |    2.12    7 |    2.06   10 |    1.83   16  western
FINAL Major League Soccer 2018 through games of December 8 Saturday - MLS CUP League Championship Game                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  11  FC Dallas               =   1.98   16  10   9    1.96(  21)   3  4  2 |   5  6  4 |    2.12    8 |    2.14    8 |    1.64   20  western
  12  Montreal Impact         =   1.98   14  16   4    2.03(  10)   3  3  1 |   6  8  3 |    1.89   15 |    1.89   16 |    2.18    8  EASTERN
  13  LA Galaxy               =   1.97   13  12   9    1.99(  17)   2  4  2 |   4  6  5 |    1.95   14 |    1.91   15 |    2.02   11  western
  14  Philadelphia Union      =   1.97   15  15   5    2.06(   3)   2  4  1 |   5 10  3 |    1.96   13 |    1.96   12 |    2.01   13  EASTERN
  15  Houston Dynamo          =   1.95   10  16   8    1.97(  19)   2  6  0 |   4  8  2 |    2.01   12 |    1.94   14 |    1.83   17  western
  16  Real Salt Lake          =   1.95   15  14   8    2.02(  11)   4  4  2 |   6  9  2 |    1.87   17 |    1.94   13 |    2.13    9  western
  17  New England Revolution  =   1.89   10  13  11    2.03(   8)   2  2  3 |   5  5  6 |    1.89   16 |    1.88   17 |    1.90   14  EASTERN
  18  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.81   13  13   8    1.97(  18)   2  5  1 |   4  7  3 |    1.69   19 |    1.84   18 |    2.03   10  western
  19  Chicago Fire            =   1.75    8  18   8    2.05(   5)   1  4  2 |   4  9  5 |    1.78   18 |    1.73   19 |    1.70   19  EASTERN
  20  Colorado Rapids         =   1.50    8  19   7    2.01(  12)   0  7  1 |   1 12  1 |    1.31   22 |    1.33   22 |    1.74   18  western
FINAL Major League Soccer 2018 through games of December 8 Saturday - MLS CUP League Championship Game                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  21  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.37    4  21   9    2.01(  14)   0  8  0 |   0 13  1 |    1.39   21 |    1.28   23 |    1.33   21  western
  22  Minnesota United FC     =   1.36   11  20   3    2.01(  13)   1  7  1 |   4 10  1 |    1.40   20 |    1.41   20 |    1.23   23  western
  23  Orlando City SC         =   1.28    8  22   4    2.10(   1)   2  6  0 |   4 13  1 |    1.29   23 |    1.34   21 |    1.26   22  EASTERN
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Conference Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.08       2.08  (  1)     11       2.08  (  1)
   2  western                 =   1.94       1.93  (  2)     12       1.93  (  2)


      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.08       2.08  (  1)     11       2.08  (  1)
   2  western                 =   1.94       1.93  (  2)     12       1.93  (  2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.08       2.08  (  1)   TEAMS= 11       2.08  (  1)
FINAL Major League Soccer 2018 through games of December 8 Saturday - MLS CUP League Championship Game                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  Atlanta United FC       =   2.74   25   8   6    2.00(  16)   2  4  2 |   9  6  5 |    2.78    1 |    2.78    1 |    2.67    1  EASTERN
  19  Chicago Fire            =   1.75    8  18   8    2.05(   5)   1  4  2 |   4  9  5 |    1.78   18 |    1.73   19 |    1.70   19  EASTERN
   8  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.14   16  12   9    2.08(   2)   2  4  3 |   6  7  4 |    2.09   11 |    2.22    7 |    2.28    6  EASTERN
   7  D.C. United             =   2.16   14  12   9    2.04(   7)   2  6  1 |   5  8  4 |    2.11    9 |    1.99   11 |    2.28    7  EASTERN
  12  Montreal Impact         =   1.98   14  16   4    2.03(  10)   3  3  1 |   6  8  3 |    1.89   15 |    1.89   16 |    2.18    8  EASTERN
  17  New England Revolution  =   1.89   10  13  11    2.03(   8)   2  2  3 |   5  5  6 |    1.89   16 |    1.88   17 |    1.90   14  EASTERN
   6  New York City FC        =   2.20   17  12   8    2.03(   9)   2  5  3 |   5  7  5 |    2.40    4 |    2.36    5 |    1.85   15  EASTERN
   2  New York Red Bulls      =   2.69   24   9   5    2.04(   6)   6  1  0 |  13  4  3 |    2.74    2 |    2.72    2 |    2.61    2  EASTERN
  23  Orlando City SC         =   1.28    8  22   4    2.10(   1)   2  6  0 |   4 13  1 |    1.29   23 |    1.34   21 |    1.26   22  EASTERN
  14  Philadelphia Union      =   1.97   15  15   5    2.06(   3)   2  4  1 |   5 10  3 |    1.96   13 |    1.96   12 |    2.01   13  EASTERN
   9  Toronto FC              =   2.08   10  18   6    2.00(  15)   1  4  2 |   1  9  4 |    2.11   10 |    2.10    9 |    2.02   12  EASTERN
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  western                 =   1.94       1.93  (  2)   TEAMS= 12       1.93  (  2)
FINAL Major League Soccer 2018 through games of December 8 Saturday - MLS CUP League Championship Game                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.70]                                                   [  0.70]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  20  Colorado Rapids         =   1.50    8  19   7    2.01(  12)   0  7  1 |   1 12  1 |    1.31   22 |    1.33   22 |    1.74   18  western
  11  FC Dallas               =   1.98   16  10   9    1.96(  21)   3  4  2 |   5  6  4 |    2.12    8 |    2.14    8 |    1.64   20  western
  15  Houston Dynamo          =   1.95   10  16   8    1.97(  19)   2  6  0 |   4  8  2 |    2.01   12 |    1.94   14 |    1.83   17  western
  13  LA Galaxy               =   1.97   13  12   9    1.99(  17)   2  4  2 |   4  6  5 |    1.95   14 |    1.91   15 |    2.02   11  western
  10  Los Angeles FC          =   2.03   16  10   9    1.94(  23)   2  5  1 |   4  5  3 |    2.12    7 |    2.06   10 |    1.83   16  western
  22  Minnesota United FC     =   1.36   11  20   3    2.01(  13)   1  7  1 |   4 10  1 |    1.40   20 |    1.41   20 |    1.23   23  western
   5  Portland Timbers        =   2.31   18  12  10    2.06(   4)   4  5  3 |   8  6  4 |    2.24    6 |    2.30    6 |    2.49    4  western
  16  Real Salt Lake          =   1.95   15  14   8    2.02(  11)   4  4  2 |   6  9  2 |    1.87   17 |    1.94   13 |    2.13    9  western
  21  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.37    4  21   9    2.01(  14)   0  8  0 |   0 13  1 |    1.39   21 |    1.28   23 |    1.33   21  western
   4  Seattle Sounders FC     =   2.36   19  12   5    1.97(  20)   3  4  2 |   6  6  3 |    2.36    5 |    2.36    4 |    2.38    5  western
   3  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.53   19   9  10    1.94(  22)   2  3  3 |   5  4  5 |    2.51    3 |    2.52    3 |    2.59    3  western
  18  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.81   13  13   8    1.97(  18)   2  5  1 |   4  7  3 |    1.69   19 |    1.84   18 |    2.03   10  western
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "Predictions_with_Totals" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG =========================================================================================================================== ATLANTA_UNITED_F 1.14 1.24 1.19 0.88 portland_timbers ATLANTA_UNITED_F 2.10 - 0.87 1.23 2.96 2- FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG @ Atlanta United FC 1.18 1.08 1.27 Portland Timbers FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 PCT=confidence FAVORITE SPREAD ODDS PCT% UNDERDOG 1 @ Atlanta United FC 1.10 311 76% Portland Timbers 2 0 PREDICTION` right endfile home=.7044 FINAL Major League Soccer 2018 through games of December 8 Saturday - MLS CUP League Championship Game arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank 1 New York Red Bulls 24 9 5 3.0028093 2.0408712 7 New York Red Bulls 1 38.000000 2 Atlanta United FC 25 8 6 2.9633918 2.0195474 11 Atlanta United FC 2 39.000000 3 Sporting Kansas City 19 9 10 2.5771146 1.9689492 21 Sporting Kansas City 3 38.000000 4 Portland Timbers 18 12 10 2.5653852 2.0700298 3 Portland Timbers 4 40.000000 5 New York City FC 17 12 8 2.3431201 2.0404624 8 New York City FC 5 37.000000 6 Seattle Sounders FC 19 12 5 2.3175978 2.0093786 17 Seattle Sounders FC 6 36.000000 7 Columbus Crew SC 16 12 9 2.2045406 2.0728609 2 Columbus Crew SC 7 37.000000 8 FC Dallas 16 10 9 2.1760790 1.9588560 22 FC Dallas 8 35.000000 9 D.C. United 14 12 9 2.1564075 2.0536245 4 D.C. United 9 35.000000 10 Los Angeles FC 16 10 9 2.1478499 1.9510129 23 Los Angeles FC 10 35.000000 11 Real Salt Lake 15 14 8 2.0639629 2.0229164 10 Real Salt Lake 11 37.000000 12 Philadelphia Union 15 15 5 1.9782751 2.0511232 5 Philadelphia Union 12 35.000000 13 LA Galaxy 13 12 9 1.9449207 1.9863140 19 LA Galaxy 13 34.000000 14 Montreal Impact 14 16 4 1.8033036 2.0174928 15 Montreal Impact 14 34.000000 15 Houston Dynamo 10 16 8 1.7744655 1.9971711 18 Houston Dynamo 15 34.000000 16 New England Revolution 10 13 11 1.7704691 2.0283521 9 New England Revolution 16 34.000000 17 Toronto FC 10 18 6 1.7075621 2.0190710 13 Toronto FC 17 34.000000 18 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 13 13 8 1.6885702 1.9747304 20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18 34.000000 19 Chicago Fire 8 18 8 1.5369036 2.0459302 6 Chicago Fire 19 34.000000 20 Minnesota United FC 11 20 3 1.4389349 2.0183445 14 Minnesota United FC 20 34.000000 21 Colorado Rapids 8 19 7 1.3404848 2.0194018 12 Colorado Rapids 21 34.000000 22 Orlando City SC 8 22 4 1.2565482 2.1034337 1 Orlando City SC 22 34.000000 23 San Jose Earthquakes 4 21 9 1.2413036 2.0141951 16 San Jose Earthquakes 23 34.000000 arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank 2 Atlanta United FC 25 8 6 2.9633918 2.0195474 11 Atlanta United FC 2 39.000000 19 Chicago Fire 8 18 8 1.5369036 2.0459302 6 Chicago Fire 19 34.000000 21 Colorado Rapids 8 19 7 1.3404848 2.0194018 12 Colorado Rapids 21 34.000000 7 Columbus Crew SC 16 12 9 2.2045406 2.0728609 2 Columbus Crew SC 7 37.000000 9 D.C. United 14 12 9 2.1564075 2.0536245 4 D.C. United 9 35.000000 8 FC Dallas 16 10 9 2.1760790 1.9588560 22 FC Dallas 8 35.000000 15 Houston Dynamo 10 16 8 1.7744655 1.9971711 18 Houston Dynamo 15 34.000000 13 LA Galaxy 13 12 9 1.9449207 1.9863140 19 LA Galaxy 13 34.000000 10 Los Angeles FC 16 10 9 2.1478499 1.9510129 23 Los Angeles FC 10 35.000000 20 Minnesota United FC 11 20 3 1.4389349 2.0183445 14 Minnesota United FC 20 34.000000 14 Montreal Impact 14 16 4 1.8033036 2.0174928 15 Montreal Impact 14 34.000000 16 New England Revolution 10 13 11 1.7704691 2.0283521 9 New England Revolution 16 34.000000 5 New York City FC 17 12 8 2.3431201 2.0404624 8 New York City FC 5 37.000000 1 New York Red Bulls 24 9 5 3.0028093 2.0408712 7 New York Red Bulls 1 38.000000 22 Orlando City SC 8 22 4 1.2565482 2.1034337 1 Orlando City SC 22 34.000000 12 Philadelphia Union 15 15 5 1.9782751 2.0511232 5 Philadelphia Union 12 35.000000 4 Portland Timbers 18 12 10 2.5653852 2.0700298 3 Portland Timbers 4 40.000000 11 Real Salt Lake 15 14 8 2.0639629 2.0229164 10 Real Salt Lake 11 37.000000 23 San Jose Earthquakes 4 21 9 1.2413036 2.0141951 16 San Jose Earthquakes 23 34.000000 6 Seattle Sounders FC 19 12 5 2.3175978 2.0093786 17 Seattle Sounders FC 6 36.000000 3 Sporting Kansas City 19 9 10 2.5771146 1.9689492 21 Sporting Kansas City 3 38.000000 17 Toronto FC 10 18 6 1.7075621 2.0190710 13 Toronto FC 17 34.000000 18 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 13 13 8 1.6885702 1.9747304 20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18 34.000000 arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank endfile home=.7044

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