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Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


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All Contents Copyright © 2018 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


2018 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of JULY 15 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of July 15 Sunday                                                                                        
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.73]                                                   [  0.73]       [  0.73]       [  0.73]
   1  New York Red Bulls      =   2.75   11   5   2    2.01(   7)   3  1  0 |   6  2  0 |    2.78    1 |    2.73    3 |    2.69    1
   2  Atlanta United FC       =   2.75   12   4   5    1.99(  11)   1  1  3 |   2  4  4 |    2.78    2 |    2.76    1 |    2.69    2
   3  New York City FC        =   2.66   12   4   4    2.00(   8)   1  2  3 |   4  3  4 |    2.75    3 |    2.73    2 |    2.53    5
   4  Portland Timbers        =   2.44    8   3   6    2.16(   3)   2  1  2 |   2  2  5 |    2.38    4 |    2.49    4 |    2.60    3
   5  Los Angeles FC          =   2.40   10   4   5    2.06(   6)   0  2  2 |   0  4  4 |    2.33    7 |    2.29    7 |    2.59    4
   6  FC Dallas               =   2.36   11   3   5    1.90(  20)   2  2  2 |   5  2  2 |    2.30    8 |    2.45    5 |    2.53    6
   7  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.32    9   5   6    1.92(  17)   1  2  1 |   3  3  1 |    2.34    6 |    2.37    6 |    2.28    7
   8  Houston Dynamo          =   2.24    7   6   5    1.89(  21)   2  0  1 |   3  2  1 |    2.35    5 |    2.23    8 |    2.02   10
   9  LA Galaxy               =   2.15    8   7   4    2.09(   5)   2  3  1 |   3  7  1 |    2.12    9 |    2.00   11 |    2.22    8
  10  New England Revolution  =   2.00    7   5   7    1.83(  23)   1  0  2 |   3  2  2 |    2.02   11 |    2.01   10 |    1.94   12
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of July 15 Sunday                                                                                        
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.73]                                                   [  0.73]       [  0.73]       [  0.73]
  11  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.00    8   7   6    1.97(  13)   0  3  1 |   1  4  3 |    2.03   10 |    2.12    9 |    1.92   13
  12  D.C. United             =   1.91    3   7   5    2.43(   1)   0  1  1 |   0  3  3 |    1.93   12 |    1.74   17 |    1.88   14
  13  Seattle Sounders FC     =   1.83    4   9   5    2.18(   2)   0  5  1 |   0  6  3 |    1.87   14 |    1.84   13 |    1.75   16
  14  Toronto FC              =   1.83    4  11   4    1.96(  14)   0  2  0 |   0  5  1 |    1.92   13 |    1.93   12 |    1.58   19
  15  Real Salt Lake          =   1.81    9   9   2    1.97(  12)   1  2  0 |   4  3  1 |    1.69   16 |    1.79   14 |    2.03    9
  16  Montreal Impact         =   1.79    9  12   0    2.00(   9)   0  4  0 |   3  7  0 |    1.69   18 |    1.72   18 |    1.97   11
  17  Chicago Fire            =   1.73    6  10   5    1.95(  15)   2  1  1 |   2  5  2 |    1.76   15 |    1.77   15 |    1.66   17
  18  Philadelphia Union      =   1.73    7   9   3    1.91(  18)   0  3  1 |   1  4  1 |    1.69   17 |    1.70   19 |    1.80   15
  19  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.60    7   8   5    1.91(  19)   0  2  0 |   1  3  4 |    1.58   19 |    1.74   16 |    1.64   18
  20  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.48    2  11   6    2.10(   4)   0  4  0 |   0  6  3 |    1.53   20 |    1.36   22 |    1.34   23
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of July 15 Sunday                                                                                        
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.73]                                                   [  0.73]       [  0.73]       [  0.73]
  21  Minnesota United FC     =   1.46    7  11   1    1.95(  16)   0  4  0 |   1  7  1 |    1.41   22 |    1.44   21 |    1.55   20
  22  Colorado Rapids         =   1.41    4  11   4    1.87(  22)   0  3  0 |   0  6  3 |    1.42   21 |    1.32   23 |    1.39   21
  23  Orlando City SC         =   1.36    7  11   1    1.99(  10)   2  5  0 |   2  5  0 |    1.34   23 |    1.46   20 |    1.39   22
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Conference Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.00       2.05  (  1)     11       2.04  (  1)
   2  WESTERN                 =   1.97       1.96  (  2)     12       1.96  (  2)


      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.00       2.05  (  1)     11       2.04  (  1)
   2  WESTERN                 =   1.97       1.96  (  2)     12       1.96  (  2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.00       2.05  (  1)   TEAMS= 11       2.04  (  1)
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of July 15 Sunday                                                                                        
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.73]                                                   [  0.73]       [  0.73]       [  0.73]
   2  Atlanta United FC       =   2.75   12   4   5    1.99(  11)   1  1  3 |   2  4  4 |    2.78    2 |    2.76    1 |    2.69    2
  17  Chicago Fire            =   1.73    6  10   5    1.95(  15)   2  1  1 |   2  5  2 |    1.76   15 |    1.77   15 |    1.66   17
  11  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.00    8   7   6    1.97(  13)   0  3  1 |   1  4  3 |    2.03   10 |    2.12    9 |    1.92   13
  12  D.C. United             =   1.91    3   7   5    2.43(   1)   0  1  1 |   0  3  3 |    1.93   12 |    1.74   17 |    1.88   14
  16  Montreal Impact         =   1.79    9  12   0    2.00(   9)   0  4  0 |   3  7  0 |    1.69   18 |    1.72   18 |    1.97   11
  10  New England Revolution  =   2.00    7   5   7    1.83(  23)   1  0  2 |   3  2  2 |    2.02   11 |    2.01   10 |    1.94   12
   3  New York City FC        =   2.66   12   4   4    2.00(   8)   1  2  3 |   4  3  4 |    2.75    3 |    2.73    2 |    2.53    5
   1  New York Red Bulls      =   2.75   11   5   2    2.01(   7)   3  1  0 |   6  2  0 |    2.78    1 |    2.73    3 |    2.69    1
  23  Orlando City SC         =   1.36    7  11   1    1.99(  10)   2  5  0 |   2  5  0 |    1.34   23 |    1.46   20 |    1.39   22
  18  Philadelphia Union      =   1.73    7   9   3    1.91(  18)   0  3  1 |   1  4  1 |    1.69   17 |    1.70   19 |    1.80   15
  14  Toronto FC              =   1.83    4  11   4    1.96(  14)   0  2  0 |   0  5  1 |    1.92   13 |    1.93   12 |    1.58   19
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  WESTERN                 =   1.97       1.96  (  2)   TEAMS= 12       1.96  (  2)
Major League Soccer 2018 through games of July 15 Sunday                                                                                        
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.73]                                                   [  0.73]       [  0.73]       [  0.73]
  22  Colorado Rapids         =   1.41    4  11   4    1.87(  22)   0  3  0 |   0  6  3 |    1.42   21 |    1.32   23 |    1.39   21
   6  FC Dallas               =   2.36   11   3   5    1.90(  20)   2  2  2 |   5  2  2 |    2.30    8 |    2.45    5 |    2.53    6
   8  Houston Dynamo          =   2.24    7   6   5    1.89(  21)   2  0  1 |   3  2  1 |    2.35    5 |    2.23    8 |    2.02   10
   9  LA Galaxy               =   2.15    8   7   4    2.09(   5)   2  3  1 |   3  7  1 |    2.12    9 |    2.00   11 |    2.22    8
   5  Los Angeles FC          =   2.40   10   4   5    2.06(   6)   0  2  2 |   0  4  4 |    2.33    7 |    2.29    7 |    2.59    4
  21  Minnesota United FC     =   1.46    7  11   1    1.95(  16)   0  4  0 |   1  7  1 |    1.41   22 |    1.44   21 |    1.55   20
   4  Portland Timbers        =   2.44    8   3   6    2.16(   3)   2  1  2 |   2  2  5 |    2.38    4 |    2.49    4 |    2.60    3
  15  Real Salt Lake          =   1.81    9   9   2    1.97(  12)   1  2  0 |   4  3  1 |    1.69   16 |    1.79   14 |    2.03    9
  20  San Jose Earthquakes    =   1.48    2  11   6    2.10(   4)   0  4  0 |   0  6  3 |    1.53   20 |    1.36   22 |    1.34   23
  13  Seattle Sounders FC     =   1.83    4   9   5    2.18(   2)   0  5  1 |   0  6  3 |    1.87   14 |    1.84   13 |    1.75   16
   7  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.32    9   5   6    1.92(  17)   1  2  1 |   3  3  1 |    2.34    6 |    2.37    6 |    2.28    7
  19  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.60    7   8   5    1.91(  19)   0  2  0 |   1  3  4 |    1.58   19 |    1.74   16 |    1.64   18
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New_Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG =========================================================================================================================== MINNESOTA_UNITED 0.19 0.11 0.16 0.33 new_england_revo new_england_revo 1.64 - 1.63 0.01 3.27 MINNESOTA_UNITED FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG @ Minnesota United FC 0.13 0.22 0.01 New England Revoluti FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG eigen MONEY=odds to 100 PCT=confidence FAVORITE SPREAD ODDS PCT UNDERDOG 1 @ Minnesota United FC 0.06 107 52 New England Revolution endfile home=.7281 Major League Soccer 2018 through games of July 15 Sunday arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank 1 Atlanta United FC 12 4 5 2.9663983 2.0163001 9 Atlanta United FC 1 21.000000 2 New York City FC 12 4 4 2.9592606 2.0354845 7 New York City FC 2 20.000000 3 New York Red Bulls 11 5 2 2.8517669 2.0035767 10 New York Red Bulls 3 18.000000 4 Los Angeles FC 10 4 5 2.7433326 2.0887767 6 Los Angeles FC 4 19.000000 5 Portland Timbers 8 3 6 2.7013891 2.1713590 3 Portland Timbers 5 17.000000 6 FC Dallas 11 3 5 2.5757540 1.9317430 16 FC Dallas 6 19.000000 7 Houston Dynamo 7 6 5 2.5280239 1.8146384 22 Houston Dynamo 7 18.000000 8 Sporting Kansas City 9 5 6 2.2440771 1.8913247 20 Sporting Kansas City 8 20.000000 9 LA Galaxy 8 7 4 2.2085499 2.1495475 4 LA Galaxy 9 19.000000 10 Columbus Crew SC 8 7 6 2.1323064 1.8921595 19 Columbus Crew SC 10 21.000000 11 New England Revolution 7 5 7 1.9034790 1.7897994 23 New England Revolution 11 19.000000 12 Real Salt Lake 9 9 2 1.8676561 1.9879449 11 Real Salt Lake 12 20.000000 13 Philadelphia Union 7 9 3 1.7877472 1.8933886 18 Philadelphia Union 13 19.000000 14 D.C. United 3 7 5 1.7248507 2.4429023 1 D.C. United 14 15.000000 15 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 7 8 5 1.6853940 1.9169160 17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 15 20.000000 16 Seattle Sounders FC 4 9 5 1.6223216 2.1805651 2 Seattle Sounders FC 16 18.000000 17 Toronto FC 4 11 4 1.5419322 1.9371181 15 Toronto FC 17 19.000000 18 Orlando City SC 7 11 1 1.3655975 1.9733429 13 Orlando City SC 18 19.000000 19 San Jose Earthquakes 2 11 6 1.3615116 2.1109552 5 San Jose Earthquakes 19 19.000000 20 Chicago Fire 6 10 5 1.3515143 1.9764095 12 Chicago Fire 20 21.000000 21 Montreal Impact 9 12 0 1.3341340 2.0175784 8 Montreal Impact 21 21.000000 22 Colorado Rapids 4 11 4 1.3047047 1.8858706 21 Colorado Rapids 22 19.000000 23 Minnesota United FC 7 11 1 1.2382983 1.9711063 14 Minnesota United FC 23 19.000000 arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank 1 Atlanta United FC 12 4 5 2.9663983 2.0163001 9 Atlanta United FC 1 21.000000 20 Chicago Fire 6 10 5 1.3515143 1.9764095 12 Chicago Fire 20 21.000000 22 Colorado Rapids 4 11 4 1.3047047 1.8858706 21 Colorado Rapids 22 19.000000 10 Columbus Crew SC 8 7 6 2.1323064 1.8921595 19 Columbus Crew SC 10 21.000000 14 D.C. United 3 7 5 1.7248507 2.4429023 1 D.C. United 14 15.000000 6 FC Dallas 11 3 5 2.5757540 1.9317430 16 FC Dallas 6 19.000000 7 Houston Dynamo 7 6 5 2.5280239 1.8146384 22 Houston Dynamo 7 18.000000 9 LA Galaxy 8 7 4 2.2085499 2.1495475 4 LA Galaxy 9 19.000000 4 Los Angeles FC 10 4 5 2.7433326 2.0887767 6 Los Angeles FC 4 19.000000 23 Minnesota United FC 7 11 1 1.2382983 1.9711063 14 Minnesota United FC 23 19.000000 21 Montreal Impact 9 12 0 1.3341340 2.0175784 8 Montreal Impact 21 21.000000 11 New England Revolution 7 5 7 1.9034790 1.7897994 23 New England Revolution 11 19.000000 2 New York City FC 12 4 4 2.9592606 2.0354845 7 New York City FC 2 20.000000 3 New York Red Bulls 11 5 2 2.8517669 2.0035767 10 New York Red Bulls 3 18.000000 18 Orlando City SC 7 11 1 1.3655975 1.9733429 13 Orlando City SC 18 19.000000 13 Philadelphia Union 7 9 3 1.7877472 1.8933886 18 Philadelphia Union 13 19.000000 5 Portland Timbers 8 3 6 2.7013891 2.1713590 3 Portland Timbers 5 17.000000 12 Real Salt Lake 9 9 2 1.8676561 1.9879449 11 Real Salt Lake 12 20.000000 19 San Jose Earthquakes 2 11 6 1.3615116 2.1109552 5 San Jose Earthquakes 19 19.000000 16 Seattle Sounders FC 4 9 5 1.6223216 2.1805651 2 Seattle Sounders FC 16 18.000000 8 Sporting Kansas City 9 5 6 2.2440771 1.8913247 20 Sporting Kansas City 8 20.000000 17 Toronto FC 4 11 4 1.5419322 1.9371181 15 Toronto FC 17 19.000000 15 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 7 8 5 1.6853940 1.9169160 17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 15 20.000000 arithmetic sked W L T EIGENVECTOR SCHEDULE rank endfile home=.7281

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