United States Naval Observatory
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2024 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2024 APRIL 21 SUNDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
where you can check out the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 21 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.27] [ 0.22] [ 0.34] [ 0.29] [ 0.29]
1 Real Salt Lake = 2.88 4 2 3 2.32( 1) 1 1 1 | 2 1 3 | 2.99 1 | 2.85 2 | 2.43 3 | 3.01 2 western
2 Philadelphia Union = 2.88 3 0 4 2.11( 8) 1 0 0 | 1 0 1 | 2.80 3 | 2.97 1 | 2.59 1 | 3.04 1 EASTERN
3 Inter Miami CF = 2.82 5 2 3 2.05( 12) 1 0 0 | 1 1 1 | 2.87 2 | 2.71 3 | 2.54 2 | 1.99 15 EASTERN
4 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.61 5 2 1 1.72( 28) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 2.73 4 | 2.57 6 | 2.27 8 | 2.31 9 western
5 Minnesota United FC = 2.53 4 2 2 2.18( 6) 0 1 1 | 0 1 2 | 2.69 5 | 2.61 4 | 2.10 12 | 2.06 12 western
6 New York Red Bulls = 2.46 4 1 4 2.09( 9) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 2.39 6 | 2.57 7 | 2.27 7 | 2.53 6 EASTERN
7 LA Galaxy = 2.42 5 1 3 1.95( 20) 1 0 1 | 1 0 2 | 2.39 7 | 2.60 5 | 2.16 10 | 2.33 8 western
8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.40 3 1 5 2.08( 10) 0 0 2 | 2 0 2 | 2.35 8 | 2.38 8 | 2.37 4 | 1.96 16 EASTERN
9 Atlanta United = 2.23 3 3 2 1.80( 25) 0 0 1 | 0 1 1 | 2.28 9 | 2.02 14 | 2.31 5 | 2.01 14 EASTERN
10 St. Louis CITY FC = 2.20 2 1 6 2.04( 14) 0 1 1 | 0 1 2 | 2.23 10 | 2.26 10 | 2.02 15 | 1.54 24 western
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 21 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.27] [ 0.22] [ 0.34] [ 0.29] [ 0.29]
11 Colorado Rapids = 2.15 4 2 3 1.97( 16) 1 0 1 | 1 0 1 | 2.23 11 | 2.26 9 | 1.87 18 | 2.19 11 western
12 Los Angeles FC = 2.11 3 3 3 2.19( 5) 0 2 0 | 1 2 1 | 2.02 13 | 2.14 11 | 2.20 9 | 2.82 3 western
13 Portland Timbers = 2.10 2 3 4 2.22( 3) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 | 2.16 12 | 2.14 12 | 1.92 17 | 1.66 22 western
14 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.99 4 3 1 1.91( 21) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.90 16 | 2.06 13 | 2.08 14 | 2.22 10 western
15 Sporting Kansas City = 1.97 2 2 5 2.05( 13) 0 1 1 | 0 2 2 | 1.95 15 | 1.99 16 | 2.01 16 | 2.04 13 western
16 FC Cincinnati = 1.97 4 2 3 1.74( 26) 0 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.77 20 | 2.00 15 | 2.28 6 | 2.48 7 EASTERN
17 Orlando City SC = 1.91 2 3 3 2.14( 7) 0 2 0 | 0 3 1 | 1.83 19 | 1.85 17 | 2.13 11 | 2.56 5 EASTERN
18 Nashville SC = 1.83 1 3 4 2.30( 2) 0 2 0 | 0 2 3 | 1.97 14 | 1.78 20 | 1.68 25 | 1.13 28 EASTERN
19 New York City FC = 1.83 3 4 2 1.85( 23) 0 0 1 | 0 1 2 | 1.77 22 | 1.70 21 | 2.10 13 | 2.68 4 EASTERN
20 CF Montreal = 1.80 3 3 2 1.96( 19) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 1.83 18 | 1.80 19 | 1.83 21 | 1.21 27 EASTERN
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 21 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.27] [ 0.22] [ 0.34] [ 0.29] [ 0.29]
21 Austin FC = 1.78 3 3 3 1.96( 18) 0 1 1 | 0 2 2 | 1.77 21 | 1.82 18 | 1.86 20 | 1.88 17 western
22 D.C. United = 1.78 2 3 4 2.03( 15) 0 1 0 | 0 1 2 | 1.83 17 | 1.70 22 | 1.87 19 | 1.82 19 EASTERN
23 Chicago Fire FC = 1.64 2 4 3 2.19( 4) 0 1 1 | 0 3 2 | 1.69 23 | 1.63 23 | 1.70 24 | 1.27 26 EASTERN
24 Charlotte FC = 1.57 3 4 2 1.83( 24) 0 1 1 | 1 1 1 | 1.57 24 | 1.61 24 | 1.71 23 | 1.55 23 EASTERN
25 Seattle Sounders FC = 1.56 1 4 3 1.91( 22) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 1.54 25 | 1.54 25 | 1.79 22 | 1.83 18 western
26 Toronto FC = 1.36 4 4 1 1.74( 27) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.34 27 | 1.53 26 | 1.37 29 | 1.02 29 EASTERN
27 FC Dallas = 1.35 1 5 2 1.97( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 2 1 | 1.37 26 | 1.24 27 | 1.67 26 | 1.66 21 western
28 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.06 1 8 0 2.06( 11) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 1.11 28 | 0.97 28 | 1.42 28 | 1.46 25 western
29 New England Revolution = 0.80 1 6 1 1.72( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 0.64 29 | 0.69 29 | 1.44 27 | 1.72 20 EASTERN
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 western = 2.07 2.05 ( 1) 14 2.05 ( 1)
2 EASTERN = 1.93 1.95 ( 2) 15 1.95 ( 2)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 EASTERN = 1.93 1.95 ( 2) 15 1.95 ( 2)
1 western = 2.07 2.05 ( 1) 14 2.05 ( 1)
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2 EASTERN = 1.93
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 21 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.27] [ 0.22] [ 0.34] [ 0.29] [ 0.29]
2 Philadelphia Union = 2.88 3 0 4 2.11( 8) 1 0 0 | 1 0 1 | 2.80 3 | 2.97 1 | 2.59 1 | 3.04 1 EASTERN
3 Inter Miami CF = 2.82 5 2 3 2.05( 12) 1 0 0 | 1 1 1 | 2.87 2 | 2.71 3 | 2.54 2 | 1.99 15 EASTERN
6 New York Red Bulls = 2.46 4 1 4 2.09( 9) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 2.39 6 | 2.57 7 | 2.27 7 | 2.53 6 EASTERN
8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.40 3 1 5 2.08( 10) 0 0 2 | 2 0 2 | 2.35 8 | 2.38 8 | 2.37 4 | 1.96 16 EASTERN
9 Atlanta United = 2.23 3 3 2 1.80( 25) 0 0 1 | 0 1 1 | 2.28 9 | 2.02 14 | 2.31 5 | 2.01 14 EASTERN
16 FC Cincinnati = 1.97 4 2 3 1.74( 26) 0 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.77 20 | 2.00 15 | 2.28 6 | 2.48 7 EASTERN
17 Orlando City SC = 1.91 2 3 3 2.14( 7) 0 2 0 | 0 3 1 | 1.83 19 | 1.85 17 | 2.13 11 | 2.56 5 EASTERN
18 Nashville SC = 1.83 1 3 4 2.30( 2) 0 2 0 | 0 2 3 | 1.97 14 | 1.78 20 | 1.68 25 | 1.13 28 EASTERN
19 New York City FC = 1.83 3 4 2 1.85( 23) 0 0 1 | 0 1 2 | 1.77 22 | 1.70 21 | 2.10 13 | 2.68 4 EASTERN
20 CF Montreal = 1.80 3 3 2 1.96( 19) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 1.83 18 | 1.80 19 | 1.83 21 | 1.21 27 EASTERN
22 D.C. United = 1.78 2 3 4 2.03( 15) 0 1 0 | 0 1 2 | 1.83 17 | 1.70 22 | 1.87 19 | 1.82 19 EASTERN
23 Chicago Fire FC = 1.64 2 4 3 2.19( 4) 0 1 1 | 0 3 2 | 1.69 23 | 1.63 23 | 1.70 24 | 1.27 26 EASTERN
24 Charlotte FC = 1.57 3 4 2 1.83( 24) 0 1 1 | 1 1 1 | 1.57 24 | 1.61 24 | 1.71 23 | 1.55 23 EASTERN
26 Toronto FC = 1.36 4 4 1 1.74( 27) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.34 27 | 1.53 26 | 1.37 29 | 1.02 29 EASTERN
29 New England Revolution = 0.80 1 6 1 1.72( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 0.64 29 | 0.69 29 | 1.44 27 | 1.72 20 EASTERN
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 western = 2.07
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of April 21 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.27] [ 0.22] [ 0.34] [ 0.29] [ 0.29]
1 Real Salt Lake = 2.88 4 2 3 2.32( 1) 1 1 1 | 2 1 3 | 2.99 1 | 2.85 2 | 2.43 3 | 3.01 2 western
4 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.61 5 2 1 1.72( 28) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 2.73 4 | 2.57 6 | 2.27 8 | 2.31 9 western
5 Minnesota United FC = 2.53 4 2 2 2.18( 6) 0 1 1 | 0 1 2 | 2.69 5 | 2.61 4 | 2.10 12 | 2.06 12 western
7 LA Galaxy = 2.42 5 1 3 1.95( 20) 1 0 1 | 1 0 2 | 2.39 7 | 2.60 5 | 2.16 10 | 2.33 8 western
10 St. Louis CITY FC = 2.20 2 1 6 2.04( 14) 0 1 1 | 0 1 2 | 2.23 10 | 2.26 10 | 2.02 15 | 1.54 24 western
11 Colorado Rapids = 2.15 4 2 3 1.97( 16) 1 0 1 | 1 0 1 | 2.23 11 | 2.26 9 | 1.87 18 | 2.19 11 western
12 Los Angeles FC = 2.11 3 3 3 2.19( 5) 0 2 0 | 1 2 1 | 2.02 13 | 2.14 11 | 2.20 9 | 2.82 3 western
13 Portland Timbers = 2.10 2 3 4 2.22( 3) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 | 2.16 12 | 2.14 12 | 1.92 17 | 1.66 22 western
14 Houston Dynamo FC = 1.99 4 3 1 1.91( 21) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 1.90 16 | 2.06 13 | 2.08 14 | 2.22 10 western
15 Sporting Kansas City = 1.97 2 2 5 2.05( 13) 0 1 1 | 0 2 2 | 1.95 15 | 1.99 16 | 2.01 16 | 2.04 13 western
21 Austin FC = 1.78 3 3 3 1.96( 18) 0 1 1 | 0 2 2 | 1.77 21 | 1.82 18 | 1.86 20 | 1.88 17 western
25 Seattle Sounders FC = 1.56 1 4 3 1.91( 22) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 1.54 25 | 1.54 25 | 1.79 22 | 1.83 18 western
27 FC Dallas = 1.35 1 5 2 1.97( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 2 1 | 1.37 26 | 1.24 27 | 1.67 26 | 1.66 21 western
28 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.06 1 8 0 2.06( 11) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 1.11 28 | 0.97 28 | 1.42 28 | 1.46 25 western
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location based on the Rating _ Original Strong TOTAL MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent GOALS UNDERDOG FAV DOG DRAW _ ======================================================================================================================= inter miami cf 1.65 1.92 1.58 0.72 0.47 3.09 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTI -288 +958 +513 NEW YORK CITY FC 0.72 0.61 0.62 0.88 1.09 2.07 charlotte fc -119 +452 +262 vancouver whitecaps 0.10 0.32 -0.13 -0.09 -0.15 2.65 NEW YORK RED BULLS +155 +188 +284 PHILADELPHIA UNION 0.22 -0.02 0.42 0.40 0.37 2.78 real salt lake +136 +209 +297 D.C. UNITED 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.35 0.33 2.43 seattle sounders fc +108 +294 +278 ORLANDO CITY SC 0.90 0.79 0.75 1.15 1.37 2.44 toronto fc -144 +490 +315 COLUMBUS CREW SC 1.02 0.89 1.07 0.99 1.04 2.91 cf montreal -158 +474 +369 colorado rapids 0.05 0.38 0.06 -0.56 -0.53 2.55 FC CINCINNATI +164 +183 +274 NASHVILLE SC 1.03 1.07 1.14 0.54 0.37 3.61 san jose earthquakes -153 +394 +418 atlanta united 0.23 0.27 -0.05 0.23 0.27 3.03 CHICAGO FIRE FC +133 +203 +317 MINNESOTA UNITED FC 0.53 0.66 0.67 0.08 0.07 3.34 sporting kansas city +100 +258 +353 houston dynamo fc 0.66 0.60 0.77 0.39 0.44 2.49 FC DALLAS -112 +356 +295 la galaxy 0.48 0.51 0.56 0.12 0.16 3.84 AUSTIN FC +104 +230 +385 LOS ANGELES FC 0.46 0.25 0.52 0.75 1.01 4.01 portland timbers +105 +222 +395 PHILADELPHIA UNION 1.67 1.57 1.85 1.17 1.30 2.56 seattle sounders fc -326 +1431 +491 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Inter Miami CF 0.58 189 65% @ New England Revoluti 2 @ New York City FC 0.10 112 53% Charlotte FC 3 @ New York Red Bulls 0.32 142 59% Vancouver Whitecaps 4 @ Philadelphia Union 0.18 123 55% Real Salt Lake 5 @ D.C. United 0.46 167 63% Seattle Sounders FC 6 Toronto FC 0.06 107 52% @ Orlando City SC 7 @ Columbus Crew SC 0.36 148 60% CF Montreal 8 @ FC Cincinnati 0.29 138 58% Colorado Rapids 9 @ Nashville SC 0.53 179 64% San Jose Earthquakes 10 Atlanta United 0.09 110 52% @ Chicago Fire FC 11 @ Minnesota United FC 0.56 186 65% Sporting Kansas City 12 Houston Dynamo FC 0.25 132 57% @ FC Dallas 13 LA Galaxy 0.23 130 56% @ Austin FC 14 @ Los Angeles FC 0.28 137 58% Portland Timbers 15 @ Philadelphia Union 1.01 291 74% Seattle Sounders FC endfileTop_of_Page