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Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


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All Contents Copyright © 2016 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


2016 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of MAY 1 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS Regular Method Predictions "New_Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== ORLANDO_CITY_SC 0.90 1.00 0.97 0.86 new_york_red_bul ORLANDO_CITY_SC 2.78 - 0.98 1.79 3.76 new_york_red_bul ~ 1.54
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.52]                                                   [  0.52]       [  0.52]       [  0.52]
   1  LA Galaxy               =   2.93    4   1   3    2.12(   5)   2  1  0 |   2  1  2 |    2.95    1 |    2.92    1 |    2.93    1
   2  Colorado Rapids         =   2.66    5   2   2    2.31(   2)   2  2  0 |   3  2  1 |    2.62    3 |    2.64    3 |    2.66    2
   3  Toronto FC              =   2.63    3   3   2    2.44(   1)   0  1  0 |   1  3  0 |    2.75    2 |    2.68    2 |    2.60    4
   4  Real Salt Lake          =   2.59    5   1   2    2.12(   6)   1  1  0 |   2  1  1 |    2.46    4 |    2.57    4 |    2.61    3
   5  San Jose Earthquakes    =   2.32    4   2   3    2.08(   8)   1  1  0 |   3  2  2 |    2.26    6 |    2.30    5 |    2.33    5
   6  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.28    4   4   2    2.23(   3)   1  3  1 |   1  4  1 |    2.33    5 |    2.29    6 |    2.27    6
   7  FC Dallas               =   2.09    5   3   2    1.90(  14)   0  0  1 |   4  0  1 |    1.88   12 |    2.08    8 |    2.09    7
   8  Montreal Impact         =   2.07    4   3   2    1.96(  12)   0  1  1 |   0  2  1 |    2.09    7 |    2.09    7 |    2.06    8
   9  Philadelphia Union      =   1.99    4   3   1    1.76(  18)   0  0  1 |   0  1  1 |    2.02    8 |    2.00    9 |    1.98   10
  10  Portland Timbers        =   1.98    3   3   3    2.15(   4)   2  1  2 |   2  2  2 |    1.96   10 |    1.95   11 |    1.99    9
Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.52]                                                   [  0.52]       [  0.52]       [  0.52]
  11  Orlando City SC         =   1.94    2   2   4    1.77(  17)   0  0  1 |   1  1  1 |    1.94   11 |    1.96   10 |    1.94   11
  12  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.86    3   5   2    2.08(   7)   0  1  1 |   1  3  2 |    1.88   13 |    1.87   12 |    1.86   12
  13  D.C. United             =   1.84    2   3   4    2.03(  10)   0  2  2 |   0  3  2 |    1.99    9 |    1.85   13 |    1.83   13
  14  Seattle Sounders FC     =   1.78    3   4   1    1.90(  15)   0  2  0 |   2  3  0 |    1.77   14 |    1.75   14 |    1.79   14
  15  Columbus Crew SC        =   1.57    2   4   2    1.93(  13)   0  0  0 |   0  3  1 |    1.62   16 |    1.58   15 |    1.56   16
  16  New York Red Bulls      =   1.57    3   6   0    2.05(   9)   0  3  0 |   1  5  0 |    1.47   18 |    1.52   18 |    1.59   15
  17  New England Revolution  =   1.55    1   2   7    1.87(  16)   0  0  1 |   0  1  2 |    1.52   17 |    1.56   17 |    1.55   17
  18  Houston Dynamo          =   1.54    1   5   2    1.99(  11)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |    1.66   15 |    1.57   16 |    1.53   18
  19  New York City FC        =   1.44    2   3   4    1.64(  19)   0  0  1 |   0  1  2 |    1.38   20 |    1.44   19 |    1.44   19
  20  Chicago Fire            =   1.39    1   2   4    1.52(  20)   0  0  0 |   1  1  0 |    1.44   19 |    1.39   20 |    1.39   20
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Conference Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  WESTERN                 =   2.19       2.20  (  1)     10       2.20  (  1)
   2  EASTERN                 =   1.76       1.80  (  2)     10       1.79  (  2)


      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  EASTERN                 =   1.76       1.80  (  2)     10       1.79  (  2)
   1  WESTERN                 =   2.19       2.20  (  1)     10       2.20  (  1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  EASTERN                 =   1.76       1.80  (  2)   TEAMS= 10       1.79  (  2)
Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.52]                                                   [  0.52]       [  0.52]       [  0.52]
   3  Toronto FC              =   2.63    3   3   2    2.44(   1)   0  1  0 |   1  3  0 |    2.75    2 |    2.68    2 |    2.60    4
   8  Montreal Impact         =   2.07    4   3   2    1.96(  12)   0  1  1 |   0  2  1 |    2.09    7 |    2.09    7 |    2.06    8
   9  Philadelphia Union      =   1.99    4   3   1    1.76(  18)   0  0  1 |   0  1  1 |    2.02    8 |    2.00    9 |    1.98   10
  11  Orlando City SC         =   1.94    2   2   4    1.77(  17)   0  0  1 |   1  1  1 |    1.94   11 |    1.96   10 |    1.94   11
  13  D.C. United             =   1.84    2   3   4    2.03(  10)   0  2  2 |   0  3  2 |    1.99    9 |    1.85   13 |    1.83   13
  15  Columbus Crew SC        =   1.57    2   4   2    1.93(  13)   0  0  0 |   0  3  1 |    1.62   16 |    1.58   15 |    1.56   16
  16  New York Red Bulls      =   1.57    3   6   0    2.05(   9)   0  3  0 |   1  5  0 |    1.47   18 |    1.52   18 |    1.59   15
  17  New England Revolution  =   1.55    1   2   7    1.87(  16)   0  0  1 |   0  1  2 |    1.52   17 |    1.56   17 |    1.55   17
  19  New York City FC        =   1.44    2   3   4    1.64(  19)   0  0  1 |   0  1  2 |    1.38   20 |    1.44   19 |    1.44   19
  20  Chicago Fire            =   1.39    1   2   4    1.52(  20)   0  0  0 |   1  1  0 |    1.44   19 |    1.39   20 |    1.39   20
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  WESTERN                 =   2.19       2.20  (  1)   TEAMS= 10       2.20  (  1)
Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.52]                                                   [  0.52]       [  0.52]       [  0.52]
   1  LA Galaxy               =   2.93    4   1   3    2.12(   5)   2  1  0 |   2  1  2 |    2.95    1 |    2.92    1 |    2.93    1
   2  Colorado Rapids         =   2.66    5   2   2    2.31(   2)   2  2  0 |   3  2  1 |    2.62    3 |    2.64    3 |    2.66    2
   4  Real Salt Lake          =   2.59    5   1   2    2.12(   6)   1  1  0 |   2  1  1 |    2.46    4 |    2.57    4 |    2.61    3
   5  San Jose Earthquakes    =   2.32    4   2   3    2.08(   8)   1  1  0 |   3  2  2 |    2.26    6 |    2.30    5 |    2.33    5
   6  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.28    4   4   2    2.23(   3)   1  3  1 |   1  4  1 |    2.33    5 |    2.29    6 |    2.27    6
   7  FC Dallas               =   2.09    5   3   2    1.90(  14)   0  0  1 |   4  0  1 |    1.88   12 |    2.08    8 |    2.09    7
  10  Portland Timbers        =   1.98    3   3   3    2.15(   4)   2  1  2 |   2  2  2 |    1.96   10 |    1.95   11 |    1.99    9
  12  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.86    3   5   2    2.08(   7)   0  1  1 |   1  3  2 |    1.88   13 |    1.87   12 |    1.86   12
  14  Seattle Sounders FC     =   1.78    3   4   1    1.90(  15)   0  2  0 |   2  3  0 |    1.77   14 |    1.75   14 |    1.79   14
  18  Houston Dynamo          =   1.54    1   5   2    1.99(  11)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |    1.66   15 |    1.57   16 |    1.53   18
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor.
No factor needed if neutral location;  fullhome=1.09658   closeby=1.04718
Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score.
         subtract=2.37

EXAMPLE                               OFFENSE  DEFENSE   SPREAD   TOTAL
home     LA Galaxy                      1.43     0.76     0.67     2.19   away     Toronto FC
away     LA Galaxy                      0.79     1.39    -0.60     2.18   home     Toronto FC
neutral  LA Galaxy                      1.10     1.06     0.04     2.16   neutral  Toronto FC
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday                                                                                          
   HOME multiplier= 1.09658          RATIO =  OFF  /  DEF   SKED     W    L   T   VS top  5   VS top 10  APPROX
CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.04718                   ( 1.89446)    SUBTRACT=  2.37            average home edge=  0.66
    1  LA Galaxy                   1.26723    2.21    1.75 (   6)    4 -  1 - 3    2-  1- 0    3-  1- 1    2.85  LA Galaxy                  1
    2  Toronto FC                  1.25106    1.96    1.57 (   1)    3 -  3 - 2    0-  1- 0    2-  2- 0    2.81  Toronto FC                 2
    3  Real Salt Lake              1.14927    2.15    1.87 (   5)    5 -  1 - 2    1-  1- 0    2-  1- 1    2.50  Real Salt Lake             3
    4  Colorado Rapids             1.13837    1.91    1.68 (   2)    5 -  2 - 2    2-  2- 0    3-  2- 2    2.47  Colorado Rapids            4
    5  San Jose Earthquakes        1.06270    1.92    1.81 (  10)    4 -  2 - 3    1-  1- 0    2-  1- 2    2.22  San Jose Earthquakes       5
    6  Philadelphia Union          1.05892    1.90    1.80 (  17)    4 -  3 - 1    0-  0- 1    1-  0- 1    2.21  Philadelphia Union         6
    7  Sporting Kansas City        1.05278    1.81    1.72 (   4)    4 -  4 - 2    1-  3- 1    1-  3- 1    2.18  Sporting Kansas City       7
    8  Orlando City SC             1.04218    2.18    2.09 (  18)    2 -  2 - 4    0-  0- 1    0-  1- 1    2.15  Orlando City SC            8
    9  Montreal Impact             1.01249    1.93    1.91 (  13)    4 -  3 - 2    0-  1- 1    0-  1- 1    2.04  Montreal Impact            9
   10  D.C. United                 0.97322    1.78    1.82 (   8)    2 -  3 - 4    0-  2- 2    0-  2- 2    1.90  D.C. United               10
Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday                                                                                          
   HOME multiplier= 1.09658          RATIO =  OFF  /  DEF   SKED     W    L   T   VS top  5   VS top 10  APPROX
CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.04718                   ( 1.89446)    SUBTRACT=  2.37            average home edge=  0.66
   11  Portland Timbers            0.97301    2.02    2.07 (   3)    3 -  3 - 3    2-  1- 2    2-  2- 2    1.90  Portland Timbers          11
   12  FC Dallas                   0.96724    1.95    2.01 (  16)    5 -  3 - 2    0-  0- 1    4-  0- 1    1.88  FC Dallas                 12
   13  Vancouver Whitecaps FC      0.95421    1.82    1.90 (   9)    3 -  5 - 2    0-  1- 1    0-  4- 2    1.83  Vancouver Whitecaps FC    13
   14  Columbus Crew SC            0.92761    1.70    1.83 (  11)    2 -  4 - 2    0-  0- 0    0-  2- 0    1.73  Columbus Crew SC          14
   15  Houston Dynamo              0.91892    2.01    2.19 (  14)    1 -  5 - 2    0-  2- 0    0-  2- 0    1.70  Houston Dynamo            15
   16  Seattle Sounders FC         0.91711    1.73    1.88 (  15)    3 -  4 - 1    0-  2- 0    2-  3- 0    1.69  Seattle Sounders FC       16
   17  Chicago Fire                0.90979    1.67    1.83 (  20)    1 -  2 - 4    0-  0- 0    1-  1- 2    1.66  Chicago Fire              17
   18  New England Revolution      0.90039    1.77    1.97 (  12)    1 -  2 - 7    0-  0- 1    0-  2- 4    1.62  New England Revolution    18
   19  New York City FC            0.84345    1.84    2.18 (  19)    2 -  3 - 4    0-  0- 1    0-  2- 2    1.39  New York City FC          19
   20  New York Red Bulls          0.81697    1.76    2.16 (   7)    3 -  6 - 0    0-  3- 0    1-  5- 0    1.27  New York Red Bulls        20

Conference Rankings

CONFERENCE GEOMETRIC MEAN 1 WESTERN = 1.03450 ( 10) 2.12210( 0.39025) 2 EASTERN = 0.96665 ( 10) 1.87790( 0.44904) CONFERENCE GEOMETRIC MEAN 2 EASTERN = 0.96665 ( 10) 1.87790( 0.44904) 1 WESTERN = 1.03450 ( 10) 2.12210( 0.39025) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.09658 closeby=1.04718 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=2.37 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home Toronto FC 1.50 0.35 1.15 1.85 away Philadelphia Union away Toronto FC 0.85 0.90 -0.05 1.75 home Philadelphia Union neutral Toronto FC 1.16 0.61 0.55 1.77 neutral Philadelphia Union _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 EASTERN = 0.96665 1.87790 Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday HOME multiplier= 1.09658 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L T VS top 5 VS top 10 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.04718 ( 1.89446) SUBTRACT= 2.37 average home edge= 0.66 2 Toronto FC 1.25106 1.96 1.57 ( 1) 3 - 3 - 2 0- 1- 0 2- 2- 0 2.81 Toronto FC 2 6 Philadelphia Union 1.05892 1.90 1.80 ( 17) 4 - 3 - 1 0- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 2.21 Philadelphia Union 6 8 Orlando City SC 1.04218 2.18 2.09 ( 18) 2 - 2 - 4 0- 0- 1 0- 1- 1 2.15 Orlando City SC 8 9 Montreal Impact 1.01249 1.93 1.91 ( 13) 4 - 3 - 2 0- 1- 1 0- 1- 1 2.04 Montreal Impact 9 10 D.C. United 0.97322 1.78 1.82 ( 8) 2 - 3 - 4 0- 2- 2 0- 2- 2 1.90 D.C. United 10 14 Columbus Crew SC 0.92761 1.70 1.83 ( 11) 2 - 4 - 2 0- 0- 0 0- 2- 0 1.73 Columbus Crew SC 14 17 Chicago Fire 0.90979 1.67 1.83 ( 20) 1 - 2 - 4 0- 0- 0 1- 1- 2 1.66 Chicago Fire 17 18 New England Revolution 0.90039 1.77 1.97 ( 12) 1 - 2 - 7 0- 0- 1 0- 2- 4 1.62 New England Revolution 18 19 New York City FC 0.84345 1.84 2.18 ( 19) 2 - 3 - 4 0- 0- 1 0- 2- 2 1.39 New York City FC 19 20 New York Red Bulls 0.81697 1.76 2.16 ( 7) 3 - 6 - 0 0- 3- 0 1- 5- 0 1.27 New York Red Bulls 20 1 WESTERN = 1.03450 2.12210 Major League Soccer 2016 through games of May 1 Sunday HOME multiplier= 1.09658 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L T VS top 5 VS top 10 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.04718 ( 1.89446) SUBTRACT= 2.37 average home edge= 0.66 1 LA Galaxy 1.26723 2.21 1.75 ( 6) 4 - 1 - 3 2- 1- 0 3- 1- 1 2.85 LA Galaxy 1 3 Real Salt Lake 1.14927 2.15 1.87 ( 5) 5 - 1 - 2 1- 1- 0 2- 1- 1 2.50 Real Salt Lake 3 4 Colorado Rapids 1.13837 1.91 1.68 ( 2) 5 - 2 - 2 2- 2- 0 3- 2- 2 2.47 Colorado Rapids 4 5 San Jose Earthquakes 1.06270 1.92 1.81 ( 10) 4 - 2 - 3 1- 1- 0 2- 1- 2 2.22 San Jose Earthquakes 5 7 Sporting Kansas City 1.05278 1.81 1.72 ( 4) 4 - 4 - 2 1- 3- 1 1- 3- 1 2.18 Sporting Kansas City 7 11 Portland Timbers 0.97301 2.02 2.07 ( 3) 3 - 3 - 3 2- 1- 2 2- 2- 2 1.90 Portland Timbers 11 12 FC Dallas 0.96724 1.95 2.01 ( 16) 5 - 3 - 2 0- 0- 1 4- 0- 1 1.88 FC Dallas 12 13 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0.95421 1.82 1.90 ( 9) 3 - 5 - 2 0- 1- 1 0- 4- 2 1.83 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 13 15 Houston Dynamo 0.91892 2.01 2.19 ( 14) 1 - 5 - 2 0- 2- 0 0- 2- 0 1.70 Houston Dynamo 15 16 Seattle Sounders FC 0.91711 1.73 1.88 ( 15) 3 - 4 - 1 0- 2- 0 2- 3- 0 1.69 Seattle Sounders FC 16

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