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Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Soccer Ratings (MLS)


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2017 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of MAY 21 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
                                (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
 team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by  1.08  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.69]                                                   [  0.67]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  Toronto FC              =   2.82    7   1   5    2.05(   9)   1  0  1 |   3  1  2 |    2.72    1 |    2.85    1 |    2.95    1
   2  New York City FC        =   2.65    6   4   2    2.04(  10)   1  0  1 |   3  0  1 |    2.68    2 |    2.64    2 |    2.62    2
   3  FC Dallas               =   2.59    5   1   4    1.86(  19)   0  0  1 |   1  1  4 |    2.56    4 |    2.61    3 |    2.61    3
   4  Atlanta United FC       =   2.51    4   4   3    2.15(   2)   1  1  1 |   2  1  2 |    2.67    3 |    2.51    4 |    2.39    5
   5  Chicago Fire            =   2.44    6   3   3    1.86(  20)   0  2  0 |   1  2  1 |    2.43    5 |    2.44    5 |    2.45    4
   6  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.39    6   3   4    1.94(  15)   0  1  2 |   2  1  2 |    2.40    6 |    2.39    6 |    2.37    6
   7  Portland Timbers        =   2.20    5   4   3    2.09(   6)   0  0  2 |   1  3  2 |    2.20    7 |    2.22    7 |    2.19    8
   8  San Jose Earthquakes    =   2.19    5   4   4    2.08(   7)   1  1  1 |   2  3  1 |    2.15    9 |    2.19    8 |    2.21    7
   9  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.18    6   6   1    2.11(   5)   1  3  1 |   2  4  1 |    2.19    8 |    2.18    9 |    2.16    9
  10  Houston Dynamo          =   2.08    6   5   1    1.90(  17)   0  2  0 |   2  3  0 |    2.05   12 |    2.09   10 |    2.10   10
Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.69]                                                   [  0.67]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  11  Montreal Impact         =   2.07    3   4   4    2.14(   3)   1  0  2 |   2  2  2 |    2.13   10 |    2.05   11 |    2.01   11
  12  Philadelphia Union      =   2.02    4   4   4    1.77(  22)   0  1  1 |   1  2  1 |    2.06   11 |    1.99   12 |    1.98   14
  13  New England Revolution  =   2.00    4   4   4    1.88(  18)   0  2  0 |   2  3  2 |    2.01   13 |    1.99   13 |    1.98   15
  14  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.98    5   5   1    2.04(  11)   0  1  0 |   1  4  0 |    1.95   15 |    1.97   14 |    2.00   13
  15  Seattle Sounders FC     =   1.96    3   5   4    2.25(   1)   0  2  1 |   0  4  2 |    1.96   14 |    1.95   16 |    1.94   16
  16  Orlando City SC         =   1.94    6   4   2    2.05(   8)   2  2  0 |   2  4  2 |    1.89   16 |    1.97   15 |    2.00   12
  17  LA Galaxy               =   1.70    4   5   2    1.85(  21)   0  1  1 |   0  2  1 |    1.69   17 |    1.69   17 |    1.71   17
  18  New York Red Bulls      =   1.57    5   6   2    1.95(  14)   2  0  1 |   3  2  1 |    1.53   18 |    1.59   18 |    1.61   18
  19  Real Salt Lake          =   1.21    3   8   2    2.12(   4)   1  3  1 |   1  4  1 |    1.19   20 |    1.21   20 |    1.22   19
  20  Minnesota United FC     =   1.20    3   7   2    2.00(  13)   0  3  0 |   1  5  1 |    1.21   19 |    1.19   21 |    1.19   21
Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.69]                                                   [  0.67]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  21  D.C. United             =   1.20    3   6   2    2.00(  12)   2  2  0 |   2  3  1 |    1.18   21 |    1.21   19 |    1.22   20
  22  Colorado Rapids         =   1.11    2   8   1    1.90(  16)   0  1  0 |   1  2  0 |    1.14   22 |    1.09   22 |    1.08   22
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Conference Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.14       2.13  (  1)     11       2.13  (  1)
   2  WESTERN                 =   1.91       1.87  (  2)     11       1.88  (  2)


      CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.14       2.13  (  1)     11       2.13  (  1)
   2  WESTERN                 =   1.91       1.87  (  2)     11       1.88  (  2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  EASTERN                 =   2.14       2.13  (  1)   TEAMS= 11       2.13  (  1)
Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.69]                                                   [  0.67]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  Toronto FC              =   2.82    7   1   5    2.05(   9)   1  0  1 |   3  1  2 |    2.72    1 |    2.85    1 |    2.95    1
   2  New York City FC        =   2.65    6   4   2    2.04(  10)   1  0  1 |   3  0  1 |    2.68    2 |    2.64    2 |    2.62    2
   4  Atlanta United FC       =   2.51    4   4   3    2.15(   2)   1  1  1 |   2  1  2 |    2.67    3 |    2.51    4 |    2.39    5
   5  Chicago Fire            =   2.44    6   3   3    1.86(  20)   0  2  0 |   1  2  1 |    2.43    5 |    2.44    5 |    2.45    4
   9  Columbus Crew SC        =   2.18    6   6   1    2.11(   5)   1  3  1 |   2  4  1 |    2.19    8 |    2.18    9 |    2.16    9
  11  Montreal Impact         =   2.07    3   4   4    2.14(   3)   1  0  2 |   2  2  2 |    2.13   10 |    2.05   11 |    2.01   11
  12  Philadelphia Union      =   2.02    4   4   4    1.77(  22)   0  1  1 |   1  2  1 |    2.06   11 |    1.99   12 |    1.98   14
  13  New England Revolution  =   2.00    4   4   4    1.88(  18)   0  2  0 |   2  3  2 |    2.01   13 |    1.99   13 |    1.98   15
  16  Orlando City SC         =   1.94    6   4   2    2.05(   8)   2  2  0 |   2  4  2 |    1.89   16 |    1.97   15 |    2.00   12
  18  New York Red Bulls      =   1.57    5   6   2    1.95(  14)   2  0  1 |   3  2  1 |    1.53   18 |    1.59   18 |    1.61   18
  21  D.C. United             =   1.20    3   6   2    2.00(  12)   2  2  0 |   2  3  1 |    1.18   21 |    1.21   19 |    1.22   20
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  WESTERN                 =   1.91       1.87  (  2)   TEAMS= 11       1.88  (  2)
Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top  5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.69]                                                   [  0.67]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   3  FC Dallas               =   2.59    5   1   4    1.86(  19)   0  0  1 |   1  1  4 |    2.56    4 |    2.61    3 |    2.61    3
   6  Sporting Kansas City    =   2.39    6   3   4    1.94(  15)   0  1  2 |   2  1  2 |    2.40    6 |    2.39    6 |    2.37    6
   7  Portland Timbers        =   2.20    5   4   3    2.09(   6)   0  0  2 |   1  3  2 |    2.20    7 |    2.22    7 |    2.19    8
   8  San Jose Earthquakes    =   2.19    5   4   4    2.08(   7)   1  1  1 |   2  3  1 |    2.15    9 |    2.19    8 |    2.21    7
  10  Houston Dynamo          =   2.08    6   5   1    1.90(  17)   0  2  0 |   2  3  0 |    2.05   12 |    2.09   10 |    2.10   10
  14  Vancouver Whitecaps FC  =   1.98    5   5   1    2.04(  11)   0  1  0 |   1  4  0 |    1.95   15 |    1.97   14 |    2.00   13
  15  Seattle Sounders FC     =   1.96    3   5   4    2.25(   1)   0  2  1 |   0  4  2 |    1.96   14 |    1.95   16 |    1.94   16
  17  LA Galaxy               =   1.70    4   5   2    1.85(  21)   0  1  1 |   0  2  1 |    1.69   17 |    1.69   17 |    1.71   17
  19  Real Salt Lake          =   1.21    3   8   2    2.12(   4)   1  3  1 |   1  4  1 |    1.19   20 |    1.21   20 |    1.22   19
  20  Minnesota United FC     =   1.20    3   7   2    2.00(  13)   0  3  0 |   1  5  1 |    1.21   19 |    1.19   21 |    1.19   21
  22  Colorado Rapids         =   1.11    2   8   1    1.90(  16)   0  1  0 |   1  2  0 |    1.14   22 |    1.09   22 |    1.08   22
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== TORONTO FC 1.33 1.20 1.37 1.49 columbus crew sc TORONTO FC 1.82 - 0.64 1.17 2.46 columbus crew sc ~ 1.19 ==================================================================================================================================== COMBO is the combining of the ELO and the BLUE. ELO and BLUE are set to be on the same scale and so are directly comparable and of course the COMBO is set to that same scale. ELO uses only who the winner and loser was of each game and of course the game location. So the difference in ELO between winning by 1 and losing by 1 is very large. BLUE cares only about the score and game location and so in BLUE, the difference between winning by 1 and losing by 1 is simply only 2 points which would be the same difference as winning by 20 as compared to winning by 18 ... very small. BLUE is an acronym which stands for "BestLinearUnbiasedEstimator" also known as "pure-least-squares." The ELO and the BLUE and thus the COMBO are all "unbiased" in that they consider only results from the season in question. Starting ratings have no bearing at all. Predictions for these ratings are found below at the bottom of the file. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.67] [ 0.64] [ 0.69] COMBO W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5| VS top10 ELO BLUE 1 Toronto FC = 2.82 7 1 5 2.05( 10) 0 0 2| 3 1 2 3.00( 1) 2.71( 3) 2 FC Dallas = 2.69 5 1 4 1.89( 18) 1 0 2| 1 1 4 2.88( 2) 2.56( 4) 3 New York City FC = 2.63 6 4 2 2.06( 8) 1 0 1| 4 2 1 2.52( 3) 2.78( 2) 4 Atlanta United FC = 2.54 4 4 3 2.13( 2) 0 1 1| 1 1 2 2.35( 5) 2.84( 1) 5 Sporting Kansas City = 2.44 6 3 4 1.95( 14) 0 1 2| 2 1 3 2.46( 4) 2.42( 5) 6 Chicago Fire = 2.37 6 3 3 1.86( 21) 0 2 0| 1 2 1 2.34( 6) 2.39( 6) 7 Portland Timbers = 2.23 5 4 3 2.09( 7) 0 1 2| 0 3 2 2.19( 9) 2.27( 7) 8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.16 6 6 1 2.12( 4) 1 2 0| 3 3 1 2.13( 10) 2.19( 8) 9 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.16 5 4 4 2.09( 6) 1 2 1| 2 2 2 2.21( 8) 2.11( 10) 10 Houston Dynamo = 2.11 6 5 1 1.91( 16) 0 2 0| 3 3 0 2.13( 11) 2.09( 12) Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.67] [ 0.64] [ 0.69] COMBO W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5| VS top10 ELO BLUE 11 Orlando City SC = 2.04 6 4 2 2.05( 9) 2 2 1| 2 3 2 2.28( 7) 1.81( 16) 12 Montreal Impact = 2.04 3 4 4 2.12( 3) 1 0 1| 2 2 2 1.89( 15) 2.19( 9) 13 New England Revolution = 2.00 4 4 4 1.86( 20) 0 1 0| 1 3 2 1.90( 14) 2.10( 11) 14 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 1.99 5 5 1 2.03( 11) 1 1 0| 1 3 0 2.02( 12) 1.95( 15) 15 Seattle Sounders FC = 1.94 3 5 4 2.25( 1) 0 2 1| 0 3 2 1.93( 13) 1.95( 14) 16 Philadelphia Union = 1.92 4 4 4 1.78( 22) 0 1 1| 0 3 1 1.74( 18) 2.09( 13) 17 LA Galaxy = 1.71 4 5 2 1.86( 19) 0 1 0| 0 3 1 1.77( 17) 1.65( 17) 18 New York Red Bulls = 1.66 5 6 2 1.95( 15) 1 1 1| 3 2 1 1.82( 16) 1.45( 18) 19 Real Salt Lake = 1.30 3 8 2 2.12( 5) 1 3 1| 1 4 1 1.43( 19) 1.12( 20) 20 D.C. United = 1.17 3 6 2 2.00( 13) 2 1 1| 2 3 1 1.13( 21) 1.20( 19) Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.67] [ 0.64] [ 0.69] COMBO W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5| VS top10 ELO BLUE 21 Minnesota United FC = 1.08 3 7 2 2.00( 12) 1 3 0| 1 5 0 1.14( 20) 1.01( 22) 22 Colorado Rapids = 0.97 2 8 1 1.89( 17) 0 1 0| 1 3 0 0.72( 22) 1.11( 21) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ CONFERENCE WIN50% ARITH.MEAN TEAMS 1 EASTERN = 2.13 2.12 11 ( 1) 2 WESTERN = 1.89 1.88 11 ( 2) CONFERENCE WIN50% ARITH.MEAN TEAMS 1 EASTERN = 2.13 2.12 11 ( 1) 2 WESTERN = 1.89 1.88 11 ( 2) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 EASTERN = 2.13 2.12 Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.67] [ 0.64] [ 0.69] COMBO W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5| VS top10 ELO BLUE 1 Toronto FC = 2.82 7 1 5 2.05( 10) 0 0 2| 3 1 2 3.00( 1) 2.71( 3) 3 New York City FC = 2.63 6 4 2 2.06( 8) 1 0 1| 4 2 1 2.52( 3) 2.78( 2) 4 Atlanta United FC = 2.54 4 4 3 2.13( 2) 0 1 1| 1 1 2 2.35( 5) 2.84( 1) 6 Chicago Fire = 2.37 6 3 3 1.86( 21) 0 2 0| 1 2 1 2.34( 6) 2.39( 6) 8 Columbus Crew SC = 2.16 6 6 1 2.12( 4) 1 2 0| 3 3 1 2.13( 10) 2.19( 8) 11 Orlando City SC = 2.04 6 4 2 2.05( 9) 2 2 1| 2 3 2 2.28( 7) 1.81( 16) 12 Montreal Impact = 2.04 3 4 4 2.12( 3) 1 0 1| 2 2 2 1.89( 15) 2.19( 9) 13 New England Revolution = 2.00 4 4 4 1.86( 20) 0 1 0| 1 3 2 1.90( 14) 2.10( 11) 16 Philadelphia Union = 1.92 4 4 4 1.78( 22) 0 1 1| 0 3 1 1.74( 18) 2.09( 13) 18 New York Red Bulls = 1.66 5 6 2 1.95( 15) 1 1 1| 3 2 1 1.82( 16) 1.45( 18) 20 D.C. United = 1.17 3 6 2 2.00( 13) 2 1 1| 2 3 1 1.13( 21) 1.20( 19) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 WESTERN = 1.89 1.88 Major League Soccer 2017 through games of May 21 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.67] [ 0.64] [ 0.69] COMBO W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5| VS top10 ELO BLUE 2 FC Dallas = 2.69 5 1 4 1.89( 18) 1 0 2| 1 1 4 2.88( 2) 2.56( 4) 5 Sporting Kansas City = 2.44 6 3 4 1.95( 14) 0 1 2| 2 1 3 2.46( 4) 2.42( 5) 7 Portland Timbers = 2.23 5 4 3 2.09( 7) 0 1 2| 0 3 2 2.19( 9) 2.27( 7) 9 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.16 5 4 4 2.09( 6) 1 2 1| 2 2 2 2.21( 8) 2.11( 10) 10 Houston Dynamo = 2.11 6 5 1 1.91( 16) 0 2 0| 3 3 0 2.13( 11) 2.09( 12) 14 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 1.99 5 5 1 2.03( 11) 1 1 0| 1 3 0 2.02( 12) 1.95( 15) 15 Seattle Sounders FC = 1.94 3 5 4 2.25( 1) 0 2 1| 0 3 2 1.93( 13) 1.95( 14) 17 LA Galaxy = 1.71 4 5 2 1.86( 19) 0 1 0| 0 3 1 1.77( 17) 1.65( 17) 19 Real Salt Lake = 1.30 3 8 2 2.12( 5) 1 3 1| 1 4 1 1.43( 19) 1.12( 20) 21 Minnesota United FC = 1.08 3 7 2 2.00( 12) 1 3 0| 1 5 0 1.14( 20) 1.01( 22) 22 Colorado Rapids = 0.97 2 8 1 1.89( 17) 0 1 0| 1 3 0 0.72( 22) 1.11( 21) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ end_ratings FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG @ Toronto FC 1.33 1.51 1.21 Columbus Crew SC FAVORITE Combo Elo Blue UNDERDOG endpicks

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