United States Naval Observatory
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2024 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of 2024 SEPTEMBER 1 SUNDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5 and top 10 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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Major League Soccer 2024 through games of September 1 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.32] [ 0.33] [ 0.31] [ 0.31]
1 Inter Miami CF = 2.89 18 4 5 1.89( 25) 2 0 1 | 5 2 2 | 2.89 1 | 2.88 2 | 2.87 2 | 2.87 2 EASTERN
2 Columbus Crew SC = 2.87 14 4 7 1.89( 24) 1 1 1 | 2 2 2 | 2.81 3 | 2.89 1 | 3.05 1 | 3.28 1 EASTERN
3 Los Angeles FC = 2.80 14 6 5 2.06( 8) 2 2 1 | 5 3 3 | 2.85 2 | 2.76 3 | 2.72 3 | 2.77 3 western
4 Real Salt Lake = 2.62 13 6 8 2.11( 4) 1 2 3 | 3 5 3 | 2.68 4 | 2.66 4 | 2.44 4 | 2.38 8 western
5 LA Galaxy = 2.56 15 6 7 1.99( 16) 1 2 2 | 4 2 2 | 2.59 5 | 2.61 5 | 2.39 5 | 2.42 5 western
6 Colorado Rapids = 2.40 13 9 5 2.12( 3) 3 3 1 | 4 6 2 | 2.45 6 | 2.44 6 | 2.21 10 | 2.31 9 western
7 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.34 12 8 5 2.06( 7) 0 4 0 | 2 6 1 | 2.38 7 | 2.41 7 | 2.16 12 | 2.16 13 western
8 FC Cincinnati = 2.30 16 8 3 1.80( 29) 2 1 0 | 3 3 0 | 2.27 9 | 2.31 9 | 2.35 6 | 2.30 10 EASTERN
9 Portland Timbers = 2.28 11 9 7 2.03( 12) 1 2 2 | 3 3 2 | 2.27 8 | 2.28 10 | 2.26 8 | 2.40 6 western
10 New York Red Bulls = 2.26 10 5 12 1.95( 22) 1 2 1 | 3 2 3 | 2.26 10 | 2.34 8 | 2.16 13 | 2.06 16 EASTERN
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of September 1 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.32] [ 0.33] [ 0.31] [ 0.31]
11 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.23 11 9 7 2.05( 9) 0 4 2 | 1 6 4 | 2.24 11 | 2.22 12 | 2.20 11 | 2.27 11 western
12 Houston Dynamo FC = 2.19 11 8 7 1.98( 17) 1 2 0 | 5 3 1 | 2.14 12 | 2.22 11 | 2.24 9 | 2.38 7 western
13 Charlotte FC = 2.04 10 9 8 1.98( 18) 1 1 2 | 3 2 5 | 2.02 15 | 2.04 14 | 2.06 16 | 2.08 15 EASTERN
14 New York City FC = 2.03 11 10 6 1.89( 26) 0 3 1 | 1 6 1 | 2.03 14 | 2.00 15 | 2.09 14 | 2.03 17 EASTERN
15 Minnesota United FC = 2.01 10 11 6 2.08( 6) 1 2 3 | 2 4 4 | 2.11 13 | 2.05 13 | 1.70 20 | 1.45 24 western
16 FC Dallas = 1.97 9 12 6 2.00( 15) 1 2 1 | 2 7 1 | 1.97 16 | 1.91 16 | 2.06 15 | 2.18 12 western
17 Orlando City SC = 1.95 10 10 7 1.86( 27) 0 3 1 | 0 5 2 | 1.86 17 | 1.87 17 | 2.28 7 | 2.48 4 EASTERN
18 Atlanta United = 1.82 8 12 7 1.97( 19) 2 4 0 | 2 6 0 | 1.79 19 | 1.78 18 | 1.94 18 | 1.92 18 EASTERN
19 Philadelphia Union = 1.82 7 11 9 1.86( 28) 0 3 0 | 2 4 1 | 1.76 21 | 1.76 19 | 2.03 17 | 2.13 14 EASTERN
20 Sporting Kansas City = 1.75 7 14 6 2.11( 5) 0 6 1 | 0 10 2 | 1.77 20 | 1.72 20 | 1.75 19 | 1.82 19 western
Major League Soccer 2024 through games of September 1 Sunday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.32] [ 0.33] [ 0.31] [ 0.31]
21 St. Louis CITY FC = 1.73 5 10 12 2.14( 1) 1 2 3 | 1 7 5 | 1.80 18 | 1.71 22 | 1.62 23 | 1.49 23 western
22 Austin FC = 1.67 9 11 7 2.00( 14) 1 1 1 | 1 4 2 | 1.65 22 | 1.72 21 | 1.69 21 | 1.70 21 western
23 D.C. United = 1.54 7 12 8 1.96( 21) 0 2 1 | 0 4 4 | 1.54 23 | 1.49 23 | 1.61 24 | 1.55 22 EASTERN
24 Chicago Fire FC = 1.50 6 13 8 2.04( 11) 1 5 0 | 2 6 1 | 1.47 25 | 1.45 24 | 1.67 22 | 1.74 20 EASTERN
25 CF Montreal = 1.47 6 12 9 2.04( 10) 1 2 2 | 2 4 5 | 1.53 24 | 1.42 25 | 1.41 26 | 1.20 27 EASTERN
26 Toronto FC = 1.36 10 15 3 1.90( 23) 0 2 0 | 0 5 1 | 1.36 27 | 1.40 26 | 1.33 27 | 1.26 26 EASTERN
27 Nashville SC = 1.34 6 13 8 2.02( 13) 0 4 2 | 1 5 5 | 1.37 26 | 1.37 27 | 1.25 28 | 0.97 28 EASTERN
28 New England Revolution = 1.22 8 15 2 1.96( 20) 0 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 1.11 28 | 1.23 28 | 1.43 25 | 1.45 25 EASTERN
29 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.02 5 20 2 2.13( 2) 2 4 0 | 3 9 0 | 1.02 29 | 1.05 29 | 1.02 29 | 0.92 29 western
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printstop endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 western = 2.14 2.11 ( 1) 14 2.11 ( 1) 2 EASTERN = 1.85 1.89 ( 2) 15 1.89 ( 2) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 2 EASTERN = 1.85 1.89 ( 2) 15 1.89 ( 2) 1 western = 2.14 2.11 ( 1) 14 2.11 ( 1) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 EASTERN = 1.85 Major League Soccer 2024 through games of September 1 Sunday RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.32] [ 0.33] [ 0.31] [ 0.31] 1 Inter Miami CF = 2.89 18 4 5 1.89( 25) 2 0 1 | 5 2 2 | 2.89 1 | 2.88 2 | 2.87 2 | 2.87 2 EASTERN 2 Columbus Crew SC = 2.87 14 4 7 1.89( 24) 1 1 1 | 2 2 2 | 2.81 3 | 2.89 1 | 3.05 1 | 3.28 1 EASTERN 8 FC Cincinnati = 2.30 16 8 3 1.80( 29) 2 1 0 | 3 3 0 | 2.27 9 | 2.31 9 | 2.35 6 | 2.30 10 EASTERN 10 New York Red Bulls = 2.26 10 5 12 1.95( 22) 1 2 1 | 3 2 3 | 2.26 10 | 2.34 8 | 2.16 13 | 2.06 16 EASTERN 13 Charlotte FC = 2.04 10 9 8 1.98( 18) 1 1 2 | 3 2 5 | 2.02 15 | 2.04 14 | 2.06 16 | 2.08 15 EASTERN 14 New York City FC = 2.03 11 10 6 1.89( 26) 0 3 1 | 1 6 1 | 2.03 14 | 2.00 15 | 2.09 14 | 2.03 17 EASTERN 17 Orlando City SC = 1.95 10 10 7 1.86( 27) 0 3 1 | 0 5 2 | 1.86 17 | 1.87 17 | 2.28 7 | 2.48 4 EASTERN 18 Atlanta United = 1.82 8 12 7 1.97( 19) 2 4 0 | 2 6 0 | 1.79 19 | 1.78 18 | 1.94 18 | 1.92 18 EASTERN 19 Philadelphia Union = 1.82 7 11 9 1.86( 28) 0 3 0 | 2 4 1 | 1.76 21 | 1.76 19 | 2.03 17 | 2.13 14 EASTERN 23 D.C. United = 1.54 7 12 8 1.96( 21) 0 2 1 | 0 4 4 | 1.54 23 | 1.49 23 | 1.61 24 | 1.55 22 EASTERN 24 Chicago Fire FC = 1.50 6 13 8 2.04( 11) 1 5 0 | 2 6 1 | 1.47 25 | 1.45 24 | 1.67 22 | 1.74 20 EASTERN 25 CF Montreal = 1.47 6 12 9 2.04( 10) 1 2 2 | 2 4 5 | 1.53 24 | 1.42 25 | 1.41 26 | 1.20 27 EASTERN 26 Toronto FC = 1.36 10 15 3 1.90( 23) 0 2 0 | 0 5 1 | 1.36 27 | 1.40 26 | 1.33 27 | 1.26 26 EASTERN 27 Nashville SC = 1.34 6 13 8 2.02( 13) 0 4 2 | 1 5 5 | 1.37 26 | 1.37 27 | 1.25 28 | 0.97 28 EASTERN 28 New England Revolution = 1.22 8 15 2 1.96( 20) 0 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 1.11 28 | 1.23 28 | 1.43 25 | 1.45 25 EASTERN _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 western = 2.14 Major League Soccer 2024 through games of September 1 Sunday RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.32] [ 0.33] [ 0.31] [ 0.31] 3 Los Angeles FC = 2.80 14 6 5 2.06( 8) 2 2 1 | 5 3 3 | 2.85 2 | 2.76 3 | 2.72 3 | 2.77 3 western 4 Real Salt Lake = 2.62 13 6 8 2.11( 4) 1 2 3 | 3 5 3 | 2.68 4 | 2.66 4 | 2.44 4 | 2.38 8 western 5 LA Galaxy = 2.56 15 6 7 1.99( 16) 1 2 2 | 4 2 2 | 2.59 5 | 2.61 5 | 2.39 5 | 2.42 5 western 6 Colorado Rapids = 2.40 13 9 5 2.12( 3) 3 3 1 | 4 6 2 | 2.45 6 | 2.44 6 | 2.21 10 | 2.31 9 western 7 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 2.34 12 8 5 2.06( 7) 0 4 0 | 2 6 1 | 2.38 7 | 2.41 7 | 2.16 12 | 2.16 13 western 9 Portland Timbers = 2.28 11 9 7 2.03( 12) 1 2 2 | 3 3 2 | 2.27 8 | 2.28 10 | 2.26 8 | 2.40 6 western 11 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.23 11 9 7 2.05( 9) 0 4 2 | 1 6 4 | 2.24 11 | 2.22 12 | 2.20 11 | 2.27 11 western 12 Houston Dynamo FC = 2.19 11 8 7 1.98( 17) 1 2 0 | 5 3 1 | 2.14 12 | 2.22 11 | 2.24 9 | 2.38 7 western 15 Minnesota United FC = 2.01 10 11 6 2.08( 6) 1 2 3 | 2 4 4 | 2.11 13 | 2.05 13 | 1.70 20 | 1.45 24 western 16 FC Dallas = 1.97 9 12 6 2.00( 15) 1 2 1 | 2 7 1 | 1.97 16 | 1.91 16 | 2.06 15 | 2.18 12 western 20 Sporting Kansas City = 1.75 7 14 6 2.11( 5) 0 6 1 | 0 10 2 | 1.77 20 | 1.72 20 | 1.75 19 | 1.82 19 western 21 St. Louis CITY FC = 1.73 5 10 12 2.14( 1) 1 2 3 | 1 7 5 | 1.80 18 | 1.71 22 | 1.62 23 | 1.49 23 western 22 Austin FC = 1.67 9 11 7 2.00( 14) 1 1 1 | 1 4 2 | 1.65 22 | 1.72 21 | 1.69 21 | 1.70 21 western 29 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.02 5 20 2 2.13( 2) 2 4 0 | 3 9 0 | 1.02 29 | 1.05 29 | 1.02 29 | 0.92 29 western _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location based on the Rating _ Original Strong TOTAL MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent GOALS UNDERDOG FAV DOG DRAW _ ======================================================================================================================= st. louis city fc 0.19 0.36 0.14 -0.12 -0.28 2.53 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTI +144 +210 +275 NEW YORK RED BULLS 0.84 0.81 0.95 0.72 0.56 3.21 sporting kansas city -131 +357 +369 COLUMBUS CREW SC 0.97 0.89 1.00 1.17 1.32 2.18 seattle sounders fc -156 +609 +301 CHICAGO FIRE FC 0.29 0.25 0.29 0.37 0.50 3.65 d.c. united +122 +200 +364 los angeles fc 0.29 0.39 0.20 0.17 0.08 2.62 HOUSTON DYNAMO FC +128 +230 +285 VANCOUVER WHITECAPS 0.70 0.74 0.83 0.42 0.29 3.65 fc dallas -116 +287 +387 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTI 0.03 -0.15 0.07 0.34 0.49 2.53 st. louis city fc +168 +179 +273 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT NEW YORK RED BULLS 0.84 0.81 0.95 0.72 0.56 3.21 sporting kansas city -131 +357 +369 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT COLUMBUS CREW SC 1.13 1.05 1.17 1.33 1.48 2.18 seattle sounders fc -187 +781 +326 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT d.c. united 0.10 0.14 0.10 0.02 -0.11 3.65 CHICAGO FIRE FC +143 +170 +360 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT los angeles fc 0.52 0.61 0.43 0.40 0.30 2.62 HOUSTON DYNAMO FC +103 +293 +296 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT VANCOUVER WHITECAPS 0.54 0.58 0.67 0.26 0.13 3.65 fc dallas -101 +249 +375 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 St. Louis CITY FC 0.25 131 57% @ New England Revoluti 2 @ New York Red Bulls 1.30 376 79% Sporting Kansas City 3 @ Columbus Crew SC 0.63 196 66% Seattle Sounders FC 4 @ Chicago Fire FC 0.32 142 59% D.C. United 5 Los Angeles FC 0.13 116 54% @ Houston Dynamo FC 6 @ Vancouver Whitecaps 0.51 172 63% FC Dallas endfileTop_of_Page