United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2024-2025 ratings through results of 2024 NOVEMBER 18 MONDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18]
1 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.77 13 4 3.99( 16) 3 1 | 6 2 | 4.76 1 | 4.80 2 | 4.76 1 | 5.52 1 METROPOLITAN
2 Winnipeg Jets = 4.76 15 3 3.98( 17) 4 2 | 6 3 | 4.72 2 | 5.01 1 | 4.66 2 | 5.39 2 central
3 Washington Capitals = 4.57 13 5 4.07( 5) 5 3 | 6 4 | 4.52 5 | 4.78 3 | 4.48 6 | 5.29 3 METROPOLITAN
4 New York Rangers = 4.51 11 5 3.84( 31) 0 3 | 2 3 | 4.54 3 | 4.49 7 | 4.50 5 | 4.78 4 METROPOLITAN
5 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.50 9 7 4.29( 1) 6 3 | 8 5 | 4.53 4 | 4.60 4 | 4.40 9 | 4.65 9 ATLANTIC
6 Florida Panthers = 4.50 12 6 4.09( 4) 5 3 | 5 5 | 4.48 7 | 4.49 6 | 4.53 3 | 4.77 5 ATLANTIC
7 Dallas Stars = 4.47 11 6 3.90( 29) 1 4 | 2 4 | 4.49 6 | 4.41 9 | 4.51 4 | 4.71 6 central
8 Minnesota Wild = 4.42 11 6 3.94( 25) 3 2 | 4 3 | 4.44 8 | 4.51 5 | 4.33 11 | 4.71 7 central
9 New Jersey Devils = 4.41 12 9 4.05( 7) 3 4 | 6 5 | 4.41 10 | 4.39 10 | 4.45 8 | 4.66 8 METROPOLITAN
10 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.39 11 7 4.00( 13) 0 5 | 4 6 | 4.41 9 | 4.41 8 | 4.34 10 | 4.52 11 pacific
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18]
11 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.35 11 8 3.97( 21) 4 2 | 6 3 | 4.39 11 | 4.21 11 | 4.46 7 | 4.60 10 ATLANTIC
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.08 10 9 3.83( 32) 2 1 | 2 5 | 4.05 16 | 4.04 12 | 4.15 14 | 4.22 12 pacific
13 Vancouver Canucks = 4.07 9 8 3.85( 30) 1 3 | 2 4 | 4.18 13 | 3.91 16 | 4.14 15 | 3.97 13 pacific
14 Colorado Avalanche = 4.07 10 9 3.90( 28) 1 4 | 3 4 | 4.20 12 | 3.86 18 | 4.17 13 | 3.90 16 central
15 Edmonton Oilers = 4.04 9 10 3.94( 24) 0 5 | 1 6 | 4.11 14 | 3.76 20 | 4.25 12 | 3.91 15 pacific
16 Ottawa Senators = 4.03 8 9 4.09( 3) 2 4 | 4 5 | 4.10 15 | 4.01 13 | 4.00 16 | 3.92 14 ATLANTIC
17 Seattle Kraken = 3.90 9 10 4.02( 11) 2 4 | 2 8 | 3.92 17 | 3.92 15 | 3.85 20 | 3.78 20 pacific
18 Calgary Flames = 3.80 9 9 3.98( 18) 1 3 | 4 5 | 3.73 23 | 3.92 14 | 3.75 22 | 3.83 18 pacific
19 Buffalo Sabres = 3.79 8 10 3.92( 26) 3 3 | 4 4 | 3.60 26 | 3.88 17 | 3.86 19 | 3.90 17 ATLANTIC
20 New York Islanders = 3.77 7 11 3.99( 14) 1 4 | 4 5 | 3.69 24 | 3.72 23 | 3.89 18 | 3.78 19 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18]
21 Boston Bruins = 3.76 8 12 4.02( 10) 0 5 | 3 7 | 3.84 18 | 3.59 26 | 3.83 21 | 3.24 28 ATLANTIC
22 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.75 8 11 4.06( 6) 2 4 | 4 7 | 3.79 21 | 3.73 22 | 3.73 23 | 3.57 21 METROPOLITAN
23 St. Louis Blues = 3.73 8 11 4.11( 2) 2 5 | 4 6 | 3.80 20 | 3.75 21 | 3.65 26 | 3.27 27 central
24 Nashville Predators = 3.73 6 13 3.97( 19) 0 4 | 2 9 | 3.81 19 | 3.41 31 | 3.89 17 | 3.48 22 central
25 Utah Hockey Club = 3.71 7 11 4.04( 8) 2 5 | 2 8 | 3.77 22 | 3.68 24 | 3.70 24 | 3.31 24 central
26 Detroit Red Wings = 3.59 7 11 3.96( 22) 1 4 | 1 7 | 3.54 27 | 3.56 27 | 3.68 25 | 3.29 26 ATLANTIC
27 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.58 7 13 4.03( 9) 1 6 | 1 9 | 3.65 25 | 3.52 29 | 3.57 27 | 2.92 32 METROPOLITAN
28 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.52 7 11 4.00( 12) 0 5 | 3 6 | 3.39 29 | 3.76 19 | 3.28 31 | 3.30 25 METROPOLITAN
29 Anaheim Ducks = 3.48 7 10 3.91( 27) 1 5 | 1 8 | 3.43 28 | 3.63 25 | 3.37 29 | 3.37 23 pacific
30 Montreal Canadiens = 3.44 7 12 3.99( 15) 0 4 | 3 6 | 3.37 30 | 3.54 28 | 3.41 28 | 3.22 29 ATLANTIC
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.35 6 12 3.97( 20) 1 3 | 4 5 | 3.29 31 | 3.44 30 | 3.33 30 | 3.18 30 central
32 San Jose Sharks = 3.15 6 14 3.95( 23) 1 5 | 2 8 | 3.07 32 | 3.27 32 | 3.07 32 | 3.04 31 pacific
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endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 METROPOLITAN = 4.10 4.11 ( 1) 8 4.11 ( 1) 2 central = 4.01 4.03 ( 2) 8 4.03 ( 2) 3 ATLANTIC = 3.99 4.00 ( 3) 8 4.00 ( 3) 4 pacific = 3.90 3.86 ( 4) 8 3.86 ( 4) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 METROPOLITAN = 4.10 4.11 ( 1) 8 4.11 ( 1) 3 ATLANTIC = 3.99 4.00 ( 3) 8 4.00 ( 3) 2 central = 4.01 4.03 ( 2) 8 4.03 ( 2) 4 pacific = 3.90 3.86 ( 4) 8 3.86 ( 4) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 METROPOLITAN = 4.10 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18] 1 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.77 13 4 3.99( 16) 3 1 | 6 2 | 4.76 1 | 4.80 2 | 4.76 1 | 5.52 1 METROPOLITAN 3 Washington Capitals = 4.57 13 5 4.07( 5) 5 3 | 6 4 | 4.52 5 | 4.78 3 | 4.48 6 | 5.29 3 METROPOLITAN 4 New York Rangers = 4.51 11 5 3.84( 31) 0 3 | 2 3 | 4.54 3 | 4.49 7 | 4.50 5 | 4.78 4 METROPOLITAN 9 New Jersey Devils = 4.41 12 9 4.05( 7) 3 4 | 6 5 | 4.41 10 | 4.39 10 | 4.45 8 | 4.66 8 METROPOLITAN 20 New York Islanders = 3.77 7 11 3.99( 14) 1 4 | 4 5 | 3.69 24 | 3.72 23 | 3.89 18 | 3.78 19 METROPOLITAN 22 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.75 8 11 4.06( 6) 2 4 | 4 7 | 3.79 21 | 3.73 22 | 3.73 23 | 3.57 21 METROPOLITAN 27 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.58 7 13 4.03( 9) 1 6 | 1 9 | 3.65 25 | 3.52 29 | 3.57 27 | 2.92 32 METROPOLITAN 28 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.52 7 11 4.00( 12) 0 5 | 3 6 | 3.39 29 | 3.76 19 | 3.28 31 | 3.30 25 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 ATLANTIC = 3.99 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18] 5 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.50 9 7 4.29( 1) 6 3 | 8 5 | 4.53 4 | 4.60 4 | 4.40 9 | 4.65 9 ATLANTIC 6 Florida Panthers = 4.50 12 6 4.09( 4) 5 3 | 5 5 | 4.48 7 | 4.49 6 | 4.53 3 | 4.77 5 ATLANTIC 11 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.35 11 8 3.97( 21) 4 2 | 6 3 | 4.39 11 | 4.21 11 | 4.46 7 | 4.60 10 ATLANTIC 16 Ottawa Senators = 4.03 8 9 4.09( 3) 2 4 | 4 5 | 4.10 15 | 4.01 13 | 4.00 16 | 3.92 14 ATLANTIC 19 Buffalo Sabres = 3.79 8 10 3.92( 26) 3 3 | 4 4 | 3.60 26 | 3.88 17 | 3.86 19 | 3.90 17 ATLANTIC 21 Boston Bruins = 3.76 8 12 4.02( 10) 0 5 | 3 7 | 3.84 18 | 3.59 26 | 3.83 21 | 3.24 28 ATLANTIC 26 Detroit Red Wings = 3.59 7 11 3.96( 22) 1 4 | 1 7 | 3.54 27 | 3.56 27 | 3.68 25 | 3.29 26 ATLANTIC 30 Montreal Canadiens = 3.44 7 12 3.99( 15) 0 4 | 3 6 | 3.37 30 | 3.54 28 | 3.41 28 | 3.22 29 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 central = 4.01 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18] 2 Winnipeg Jets = 4.76 15 3 3.98( 17) 4 2 | 6 3 | 4.72 2 | 5.01 1 | 4.66 2 | 5.39 2 central 7 Dallas Stars = 4.47 11 6 3.90( 29) 1 4 | 2 4 | 4.49 6 | 4.41 9 | 4.51 4 | 4.71 6 central 8 Minnesota Wild = 4.42 11 6 3.94( 25) 3 2 | 4 3 | 4.44 8 | 4.51 5 | 4.33 11 | 4.71 7 central 14 Colorado Avalanche = 4.07 10 9 3.90( 28) 1 4 | 3 4 | 4.20 12 | 3.86 18 | 4.17 13 | 3.90 16 central 23 St. Louis Blues = 3.73 8 11 4.11( 2) 2 5 | 4 6 | 3.80 20 | 3.75 21 | 3.65 26 | 3.27 27 central 24 Nashville Predators = 3.73 6 13 3.97( 19) 0 4 | 2 9 | 3.81 19 | 3.41 31 | 3.89 17 | 3.48 22 central 25 Utah Hockey Club = 3.71 7 11 4.04( 8) 2 5 | 2 8 | 3.77 22 | 3.68 24 | 3.70 24 | 3.31 24 central 31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.35 6 12 3.97( 20) 1 3 | 4 5 | 3.29 31 | 3.44 30 | 3.33 30 | 3.18 30 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.90 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.17] [ 0.12] [ 0.22] [ 0.18] [ 0.18] 10 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.39 11 7 4.00( 13) 0 5 | 4 6 | 4.41 9 | 4.41 8 | 4.34 10 | 4.52 11 pacific 12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.08 10 9 3.83( 32) 2 1 | 2 5 | 4.05 16 | 4.04 12 | 4.15 14 | 4.22 12 pacific 13 Vancouver Canucks = 4.07 9 8 3.85( 30) 1 3 | 2 4 | 4.18 13 | 3.91 16 | 4.14 15 | 3.97 13 pacific 15 Edmonton Oilers = 4.04 9 10 3.94( 24) 0 5 | 1 6 | 4.11 14 | 3.76 20 | 4.25 12 | 3.91 15 pacific 17 Seattle Kraken = 3.90 9 10 4.02( 11) 2 4 | 2 8 | 3.92 17 | 3.92 15 | 3.85 20 | 3.78 20 pacific 18 Calgary Flames = 3.80 9 9 3.98( 18) 1 3 | 4 5 | 3.73 23 | 3.92 14 | 3.75 22 | 3.83 18 pacific 29 Anaheim Ducks = 3.48 7 10 3.91( 27) 1 5 | 1 8 | 3.43 28 | 3.63 25 | 3.37 29 | 3.37 23 pacific 32 San Jose Sharks = 3.15 6 14 3.95( 23) 1 5 | 2 8 | 3.07 32 | 3.27 32 | 3.07 32 | 3.04 31 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================== @ Ottawa_Senators 0.17 0.11 0.47 -0.08 0.20 Edmonton_Oilers 112 53% 6.00 5.89 average= 5.945 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.75 0.75 0.86 0.65 1.55 @ Pittsburgh_Penguins 164 62% 6.79 7.27 average= 7.03 @ Chicago_Blackhawks 0.04 -0.02 0.03 0.14 -0.01 Anaheim_Ducks 103 51% 5.04 4.20 average= 4.62 Minnesota_Wild 0.52 0.52 0.55 0.49 1.26 @ St._Louis_Blues 141 59% 5.52 5.03 average= 5.275 @ Winnipeg_Jets 0.43 0.36 0.74 0.32 0.80 Florida_Panthers 134 57% 7.02 6.74 average= 6.88 @ Calgary_Flames 0.21 0.16 0.43 0.05 0.23 New_York_Islanders 115 53% 5.08 5.21 average= 5.145 New_York_Rangers 0.26 0.24 0.36 0.17 0.63 @ Vancouver_Canucks 119 54% 6.34 6.16 average= 6.25 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM @ Ottawa_Senators 0.73 0.67 1.04 0.49 0.76 Edmonton_Oilers 162 62% 6.00 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 5.89 average= 5.945 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 2.13 2.13 2.24 2.03 2.93 @ Pittsburgh_Penguins 379 79% 6.79 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 7.27 average= 7.03 Anaheim_Ducks 0.97 1.04 0.98 0.87 1.02 @ Chicago_Blackhawks 189 65% 5.04 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 4.20 average= 4.62 Minnesota_Wild 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.36 3.12 @ St._Louis_Blues 438 81% 5.52 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 5.03 average= 5.275 @ Winnipeg_Jets 1.46 1.38 1.76 1.34 1.82 Florida_Panthers 255 72% 7.02 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 6.74 average= 6.88 @ Calgary_Flames 0.80 0.75 1.01 0.63 0.82 New_York_Islanders 169 63% 5.08 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 5.21 average= 5.145 New_York_Rangers 3.41 3.39 3.51 3.32 3.78 @ Vancouver_Canucks 768 88% 6.34 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 6.16 average= 6.25 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Edmonton Oilers 0.08 106 51% @ Ottawa Senators 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 2.04 361 78% @ Pittsburgh Penguins 3 @ Chicago Blackhawks 0.13 109 52% Anaheim Ducks 4 Minnesota Wild 1.25 224 69% @ St. Louis Blues 5 @ Winnipeg Jets 0.45 135 57% Florida Panthers 6 @ Calgary Flames 0.98 190 66% New York Islanders 7 New York Rangers 0.51 141 58% @ Vancouver Canucks endfileTop_of_Page