United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2024-2025 ratings through results of 2025 JANUARY 20 MONDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22]
1 Edmonton Oilers = 4.57 29 17 3.97( 24) 2 8 | 12 10 | 4.54 5 | 4.50 4 | 4.57 1 | 4.67 1 pacific
2 Dallas Stars = 4.56 29 17 3.94( 29) 5 7 | 11 12 | 4.57 3 | 4.54 3 | 4.47 2 | 4.58 3 central
3 Winnipeg Jets = 4.53 31 17 3.94( 31) 5 6 | 13 9 | 4.58 1 | 4.66 2 | 4.35 8 | 4.54 5 central
4 Washington Capitals = 4.52 31 15 4.02( 11) 10 6 | 16 9 | 4.57 2 | 4.87 1 | 4.28 11 | 4.66 2 METROPOLITAN
5 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.47 25 20 4.06( 2) 8 9 | 12 14 | 4.49 7 | 4.50 5 | 4.37 4 | 4.55 4 ATLANTIC
6 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.47 28 19 4.01( 16) 9 7 | 14 10 | 4.54 4 | 4.45 7 | 4.37 5 | 4.37 9 METROPOLITAN
7 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.45 30 18 4.00( 19) 11 6 | 14 10 | 4.48 8 | 4.42 8 | 4.39 3 | 4.40 7 ATLANTIC
8 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.45 29 18 3.95( 27) 5 8 | 11 11 | 4.50 6 | 4.48 6 | 4.32 10 | 4.42 6 pacific
9 Florida Panthers = 4.38 27 20 4.04( 7) 10 6 | 15 11 | 4.43 9 | 4.29 12 | 4.35 6 | 4.26 12 ATLANTIC
10 New Jersey Devils = 4.34 26 23 4.02( 10) 8 10 | 12 14 | 4.35 10 | 4.30 11 | 4.33 9 | 4.35 10 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22]
11 Colorado Avalanche = 4.34 28 20 4.00( 17) 8 10 | 12 12 | 4.33 12 | 4.29 13 | 4.35 7 | 4.37 8 central
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.31 25 19 3.96( 25) 7 5 | 11 8 | 4.34 11 | 4.31 10 | 4.23 12 | 4.32 11 pacific
13 Minnesota Wild = 4.25 28 19 4.02( 12) 8 9 | 9 13 | 4.26 13 | 4.34 9 | 4.13 14 | 4.13 13 central
14 Ottawa Senators = 4.04 24 22 4.04( 6) 6 9 | 10 12 | 4.02 14 | 4.08 14 | 4.02 17 | 4.08 14 ATLANTIC
15 New York Rangers = 4.02 22 24 4.00( 18) 4 12 | 6 14 | 4.00 15 | 3.90 16 | 4.14 13 | 3.95 16 METROPOLITAN
16 Boston Bruins = 3.97 23 25 4.01( 15) 4 12 | 6 15 | 3.91 17 | 3.85 19 | 4.12 15 | 3.98 15 ATLANTIC
17 Vancouver Canucks = 3.94 20 25 3.96( 26) 4 9 | 8 14 | 3.98 16 | 3.75 22 | 4.07 16 | 3.81 18 pacific
18 St. Louis Blues = 3.89 23 25 3.99( 20) 7 9 | 11 14 | 3.90 19 | 3.93 15 | 3.87 20 | 3.89 17 central
19 Nashville Predators = 3.86 16 29 4.13( 1) 4 13 | 9 19 | 3.90 18 | 3.62 26 | 4.01 18 | 3.75 25 central
20 Utah Hockey Club = 3.82 20 26 4.02( 9) 3 12 | 7 19 | 3.81 20 | 3.82 20 | 3.86 21 | 3.81 19 central
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22]
21 New York Islanders = 3.76 19 27 3.94( 30) 4 8 | 8 12 | 3.73 24 | 3.62 27 | 3.91 19 | 3.81 20 METROPOLITAN
22 Seattle Kraken = 3.75 21 27 3.98( 22) 2 11 | 6 19 | 3.74 22 | 3.72 24 | 3.82 23 | 3.77 22 pacific
23 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.75 21 26 4.01( 13) 3 12 | 7 18 | 3.78 21 | 3.73 23 | 3.78 25 | 3.74 26 METROPOLITAN
24 Montreal Canadiens = 3.74 23 23 4.03( 8) 7 8 | 10 14 | 3.73 23 | 3.88 17 | 3.64 28 | 3.76 24 ATLANTIC
25 Calgary Flames = 3.69 22 23 3.95( 28) 4 7 | 8 11 | 3.61 25 | 3.81 21 | 3.69 27 | 3.76 23 pacific
26 Detroit Red Wings = 3.69 21 25 3.91( 32) 5 7 | 6 15 | 3.59 27 | 3.64 25 | 3.85 22 | 3.80 21 ATLANTIC
27 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.65 20 29 4.04( 5) 4 13 | 7 19 | 3.58 28 | 3.60 28 | 3.81 24 | 3.65 27 METROPOLITAN
28 Buffalo Sabres = 3.62 17 29 3.98( 21) 4 9 | 8 15 | 3.59 26 | 3.52 29 | 3.78 26 | 3.64 29 ATLANTIC
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.61 22 25 3.97( 23) 7 7 | 10 12 | 3.49 29 | 3.87 18 | 3.40 29 | 3.65 28 METROPOLITAN
30 Anaheim Ducks = 3.37 18 28 4.06( 3) 7 10 | 8 18 | 3.38 30 | 3.46 30 | 3.33 30 | 3.31 30 pacific
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.23 15 32 4.01( 14) 5 9 | 10 13 | 3.28 31 | 3.22 31 | 3.33 31 | 3.16 31 central
32 San Jose Sharks = 2.98 14 35 4.05( 4) 4 11 | 6 19 | 2.99 32 | 3.02 32 | 3.07 32 | 3.04 32 pacific
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endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 central = 4.08 4.06 ( 1) 8 4.06 ( 1) 2 ATLANTIC = 4.04 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2) 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.99 4.02 ( 3) 8 4.02 ( 3) 4 pacific = 3.90 3.88 ( 4) 8 3.88 ( 4) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.99 4.02 ( 3) 8 4.02 ( 3) 2 ATLANTIC = 4.04 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2) 1 central = 4.08 4.06 ( 1) 8 4.06 ( 1) 4 pacific = 3.90 3.88 ( 4) 8 3.88 ( 4) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.99 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22] 4 Washington Capitals = 4.52 31 15 4.02( 11) 10 6 | 16 9 | 4.57 2 | 4.87 1 | 4.28 11 | 4.66 2 METROPOLITAN 6 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.47 28 19 4.01( 16) 9 7 | 14 10 | 4.54 4 | 4.45 7 | 4.37 5 | 4.37 9 METROPOLITAN 10 New Jersey Devils = 4.34 26 23 4.02( 10) 8 10 | 12 14 | 4.35 10 | 4.30 11 | 4.33 9 | 4.35 10 METROPOLITAN 15 New York Rangers = 4.02 22 24 4.00( 18) 4 12 | 6 14 | 4.00 15 | 3.90 16 | 4.14 13 | 3.95 16 METROPOLITAN 21 New York Islanders = 3.76 19 27 3.94( 30) 4 8 | 8 12 | 3.73 24 | 3.62 27 | 3.91 19 | 3.81 20 METROPOLITAN 23 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.75 21 26 4.01( 13) 3 12 | 7 18 | 3.78 21 | 3.73 23 | 3.78 25 | 3.74 26 METROPOLITAN 27 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.65 20 29 4.04( 5) 4 13 | 7 19 | 3.58 28 | 3.60 28 | 3.81 24 | 3.65 27 METROPOLITAN 29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.61 22 25 3.97( 23) 7 7 | 10 12 | 3.49 29 | 3.87 18 | 3.40 29 | 3.65 28 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 ATLANTIC = 4.04 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22] 5 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.47 25 20 4.06( 2) 8 9 | 12 14 | 4.49 7 | 4.50 5 | 4.37 4 | 4.55 4 ATLANTIC 7 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.45 30 18 4.00( 19) 11 6 | 14 10 | 4.48 8 | 4.42 8 | 4.39 3 | 4.40 7 ATLANTIC 9 Florida Panthers = 4.38 27 20 4.04( 7) 10 6 | 15 11 | 4.43 9 | 4.29 12 | 4.35 6 | 4.26 12 ATLANTIC 14 Ottawa Senators = 4.04 24 22 4.04( 6) 6 9 | 10 12 | 4.02 14 | 4.08 14 | 4.02 17 | 4.08 14 ATLANTIC 16 Boston Bruins = 3.97 23 25 4.01( 15) 4 12 | 6 15 | 3.91 17 | 3.85 19 | 4.12 15 | 3.98 15 ATLANTIC 24 Montreal Canadiens = 3.74 23 23 4.03( 8) 7 8 | 10 14 | 3.73 23 | 3.88 17 | 3.64 28 | 3.76 24 ATLANTIC 26 Detroit Red Wings = 3.69 21 25 3.91( 32) 5 7 | 6 15 | 3.59 27 | 3.64 25 | 3.85 22 | 3.80 21 ATLANTIC 28 Buffalo Sabres = 3.62 17 29 3.98( 21) 4 9 | 8 15 | 3.59 26 | 3.52 29 | 3.78 26 | 3.64 29 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 central = 4.08 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22] 2 Dallas Stars = 4.56 29 17 3.94( 29) 5 7 | 11 12 | 4.57 3 | 4.54 3 | 4.47 2 | 4.58 3 central 3 Winnipeg Jets = 4.53 31 17 3.94( 31) 5 6 | 13 9 | 4.58 1 | 4.66 2 | 4.35 8 | 4.54 5 central 11 Colorado Avalanche = 4.34 28 20 4.00( 17) 8 10 | 12 12 | 4.33 12 | 4.29 13 | 4.35 7 | 4.37 8 central 13 Minnesota Wild = 4.25 28 19 4.02( 12) 8 9 | 9 13 | 4.26 13 | 4.34 9 | 4.13 14 | 4.13 13 central 18 St. Louis Blues = 3.89 23 25 3.99( 20) 7 9 | 11 14 | 3.90 19 | 3.93 15 | 3.87 20 | 3.89 17 central 19 Nashville Predators = 3.86 16 29 4.13( 1) 4 13 | 9 19 | 3.90 18 | 3.62 26 | 4.01 18 | 3.75 25 central 20 Utah Hockey Club = 3.82 20 26 4.02( 9) 3 12 | 7 19 | 3.81 20 | 3.82 20 | 3.86 21 | 3.81 19 central 31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.23 15 32 4.01( 14) 5 9 | 10 13 | 3.28 31 | 3.22 31 | 3.33 31 | 3.16 31 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.90 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2025 January 20 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.19] [ 0.21] [ 0.22] [ 0.22] 1 Edmonton Oilers = 4.57 29 17 3.97( 24) 2 8 | 12 10 | 4.54 5 | 4.50 4 | 4.57 1 | 4.67 1 pacific 8 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.45 29 18 3.95( 27) 5 8 | 11 11 | 4.50 6 | 4.48 6 | 4.32 10 | 4.42 6 pacific 12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.31 25 19 3.96( 25) 7 5 | 11 8 | 4.34 11 | 4.31 10 | 4.23 12 | 4.32 11 pacific 17 Vancouver Canucks = 3.94 20 25 3.96( 26) 4 9 | 8 14 | 3.98 16 | 3.75 22 | 4.07 16 | 3.81 18 pacific 22 Seattle Kraken = 3.75 21 27 3.98( 22) 2 11 | 6 19 | 3.74 22 | 3.72 24 | 3.82 23 | 3.77 22 pacific 25 Calgary Flames = 3.69 22 23 3.95( 28) 4 7 | 8 11 | 3.61 25 | 3.81 21 | 3.69 27 | 3.76 23 pacific 30 Anaheim Ducks = 3.37 18 28 4.06( 3) 7 10 | 8 18 | 3.38 30 | 3.46 30 | 3.33 30 | 3.31 30 pacific 32 San Jose Sharks = 2.98 14 35 4.05( 4) 4 11 | 6 19 | 2.99 32 | 3.02 32 | 3.07 32 | 3.04 32 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================== Tampa Bay Lightning 0.53 0.57 0.41 0.51 0.57 @ Montreal Canadiens 144 59% 6.62 @ New York Rangers 0.19 0.18 0.03 0.35 0.09 Ottawa Senators 114 53% 5.50 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.27 0.38 0.30 0.16 0.16 Detroit Red Wings 121 55% 6.57 @ Nashville Predators 1.09 1.10 0.81 1.17 0.93 San Jose Sharks 209 68% 5.65 @ Dallas Stars 0.29 0.22 0.31 0.33 0.43 Carolina Hurricanes 123 55% 5.65 @ Edmonton Oilers 0.25 0.16 -0.15 0.52 0.23 Washington Capitals 119 54% 5.87 Florida Panthers 0.80 0.86 0.62 0.80 0.73 @ Anaheim Ducks 173 63% 5.63 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.53 0.58 0.44 0.52 0.40 Buffalo Sabres 144 59% 6.60 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM Tampa Bay Lightning 0.47 0.51 0.35 0.45 0.51 @ Montreal Canadiens 138 58% 6.62 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Ottawa Senators 0.72 0.73 0.88 0.56 0.82 @ New York Rangers 164 62% 5.50 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.14 0.25 0.18 0.03 0.03 Detroit Red Wings 110 52% 6.57 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Nashville Predators 0.97 0.99 0.69 1.05 0.81 San Jose Sharks 193 66% 5.65 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Dallas Stars 1.08 1.01 1.10 1.12 1.22 Carolina Hurricanes 208 67% 5.65 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Washington Capitals 0.70 0.79 1.11 0.43 0.72 @ Edmonton Oilers 162 62% 5.87 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Florida Panthers 0.96 1.02 0.78 0.96 0.89 @ Anaheim Ducks 192 66% 5.63 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Buffalo Sabres 0.30 0.25 0.38 0.30 0.42 @ Vancouver Canucks 123 55% 6.60 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Tampa Bay Lightning 0.51 142 59% @ Montreal Canadiens 2 Ottawa Senators 0.15 111 53% @ New York Rangers 3 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.08 106 51% Detroit Red Wings 4 @ Nashville Predators 0.48 139 58% San Jose Sharks 5 @ Dallas Stars 0.09 107 52% Carolina Hurricanes 6 Washington Capitals 0.52 143 59% @ Edmonton Oilers 7 Florida Panthers 0.79 171 63% @ Anaheim Ducks 8 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.20 115 53% Buffalo Sabres endfileTop_of_Page