United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 APRIL 17 WEDNESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
where you can check out the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
1 New York Rangers = 4.85 55 27 3.97( 27) 13 9 | 22 15 | 4.88 1 | 4.85 2 | 4.60 4 | 4.26 15 METROPOLITAN
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.84 52 30 3.97( 25) 10 12 | 20 18 | 4.79 2 | 4.83 4 | 4.77 1 | 5.41 2 METROPOLITAN
3 Florida Panthers = 4.79 52 30 4.00( 20) 11 13 | 23 17 | 4.76 5 | 4.87 1 | 4.60 5 | 5.40 3 ATLANTIC
4 Dallas Stars = 4.77 52 30 3.97( 26) 11 13 | 21 19 | 4.74 6 | 4.83 3 | 4.60 3 | 4.73 6 central
5 Edmonton Oilers = 4.74 49 32 3.94( 32) 8 14 | 19 19 | 4.78 3 | 4.63 7 | 4.65 2 | 4.37 11 pacific
6 Colorado Avalanche = 4.72 49 32 3.95( 31) 10 12 | 17 20 | 4.78 4 | 4.61 8 | 4.59 6 | 2.99 27 central
7 Winnipeg Jets = 4.70 51 30 3.95( 30) 12 10 | 21 17 | 4.74 7 | 4.78 5 | 4.39 9 | 5.94 1 central
8 Boston Bruins = 4.65 47 35 4.02( 17) 15 9 | 24 17 | 4.73 8 | 4.57 9 | 4.46 8 | 3.51 24 ATLANTIC
9 Vancouver Canucks = 4.59 50 31 3.96( 29) 13 9 | 22 17 | 4.64 9 | 4.72 6 | 4.25 13 | 4.25 16 pacific
10 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.55 46 36 4.02( 16) 11 13 | 19 21 | 4.58 10 | 4.46 10 | 4.49 7 | 3.46 25 ATLANTIC
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
11 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.40 45 37 4.01( 19) 14 13 | 19 20 | 4.43 11 | 4.34 13 | 4.33 10 | 3.76 20 ATLANTIC
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.35 43 38 3.98( 24) 11 16 | 15 24 | 4.33 12 | 4.34 11 | 4.32 11 | 4.33 12 pacific
13 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.28 45 36 3.97( 28) 15 11 | 20 18 | 4.23 14 | 4.29 14 | 4.28 12 | 4.61 8 pacific
14 Nashville Predators = 4.27 47 35 3.98( 23) 11 16 | 18 21 | 4.26 13 | 4.34 12 | 4.14 14 | 4.41 10 central
15 Detroit Red Wings = 4.05 41 41 4.03( 11) 7 20 | 15 24 | 4.09 15 | 4.07 15 | 3.93 20 | 3.96 19 ATLANTIC
16 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.00 38 44 4.01( 18) 8 18 | 15 23 | 4.00 16 | 3.94 18 | 4.07 16 | 4.13 18 METROPOLITAN
17 St. Louis Blues = 3.95 43 39 3.99( 21) 11 16 | 16 26 | 3.97 17 | 3.98 16 | 3.88 21 | 4.21 17 central
18 Buffalo Sabres = 3.94 39 43 4.03( 12) 7 19 | 17 26 | 3.87 18 | 3.94 17 | 4.08 15 | 4.65 7 ATLANTIC
19 Minnesota Wild = 3.90 39 42 4.03( 14) 10 17 | 16 27 | 3.83 20 | 3.93 19 | 4.02 18 | 4.54 9 central
20 New Jersey Devils = 3.86 38 44 4.02( 15) 8 18 | 14 27 | 3.83 19 | 3.78 21 | 4.03 17 | 3.14 26 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
21 New York Islanders = 3.84 39 43 4.05( 8) 13 14 | 19 24 | 3.80 21 | 3.83 20 | 3.96 19 | 5.38 4 METROPOLITAN
22 Calgary Flames = 3.73 37 44 4.05( 7) 10 17 | 20 24 | 3.67 24 | 3.77 23 | 3.86 22 | 3.70 21 pacific
23 Washington Capitals = 3.72 40 42 4.05( 6) 8 19 | 17 26 | 3.69 23 | 3.77 22 | 3.76 25 | 4.98 5 METROPOLITAN
24 Ottawa Senators = 3.69 37 45 4.06( 4) 8 19 | 19 25 | 3.63 25 | 3.74 25 | 3.83 23 | 4.32 13 ATLANTIC
25 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.67 38 44 4.05( 9) 13 14 | 19 24 | 3.69 22 | 3.75 24 | 3.58 27 | 2.97 28 METROPOLITAN
26 Arizona Coyotes = 3.59 36 46 4.03( 10) 6 21 | 15 28 | 3.58 26 | 3.66 26 | 3.61 26 | 4.30 14 central
27 Seattle Kraken = 3.53 33 48 3.99( 22) 8 18 | 14 28 | 3.47 27 | 3.49 27 | 3.79 24 | 3.52 23 pacific
28 Montreal Canadiens = 3.35 30 52 4.07( 1) 8 19 | 10 34 | 3.44 28 | 3.26 28 | 3.39 28 | 3.67 22 ATLANTIC
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.12 27 55 4.07( 2) 9 18 | 12 31 | 3.14 29 | 3.11 29 | 3.27 29 | 2.84 29 METROPOLITAN
30 Anaheim Ducks = 2.78 26 55 4.03( 13) 4 22 | 11 31 | 2.81 30 | 2.80 30 | 2.94 30 | 2.69 30 pacific
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.60 23 58 4.07( 3) 6 22 | 9 34 | 2.61 31 | 2.58 31 | 2.91 31 | 1.68 32 central
32 San Jose Sharks = 2.19 19 62 4.05( 5) 4 22 | 6 37 | 2.19 32 | 2.15 32 | 2.62 32 | 1.89 31 pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 ATLANTIC = 4.20 4.18 ( 1) 8 4.18 ( 1)
2 central = 4.13 4.06 ( 2) 8 4.06 ( 2)
3 METROPOLITAN = 3.95 3.99 ( 3) 8 3.99 ( 3)
4 pacific = 3.87 3.77 ( 4) 8 3.77 ( 4)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
3 METROPOLITAN = 3.95 3.99 ( 3) 8 3.99 ( 3)
1 ATLANTIC = 4.20 4.18 ( 1) 8 4.18 ( 1)
2 central = 4.13 4.06 ( 2) 8 4.06 ( 2)
4 pacific = 3.87 3.77 ( 4) 8 3.77 ( 4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3 METROPOLITAN = 3.95
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
1 New York Rangers = 4.85 55 27 3.97( 27) 13 9 | 22 15 | 4.88 1 | 4.85 2 | 4.60 4 | 4.26 15 METROPOLITAN
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.84 52 30 3.97( 25) 10 12 | 20 18 | 4.79 2 | 4.83 4 | 4.77 1 | 5.41 2 METROPOLITAN
16 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.00 38 44 4.01( 18) 8 18 | 15 23 | 4.00 16 | 3.94 18 | 4.07 16 | 4.13 18 METROPOLITAN
20 New Jersey Devils = 3.86 38 44 4.02( 15) 8 18 | 14 27 | 3.83 19 | 3.78 21 | 4.03 17 | 3.14 26 METROPOLITAN
21 New York Islanders = 3.84 39 43 4.05( 8) 13 14 | 19 24 | 3.80 21 | 3.83 20 | 3.96 19 | 5.38 4 METROPOLITAN
23 Washington Capitals = 3.72 40 42 4.05( 6) 8 19 | 17 26 | 3.69 23 | 3.77 22 | 3.76 25 | 4.98 5 METROPOLITAN
25 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.67 38 44 4.05( 9) 13 14 | 19 24 | 3.69 22 | 3.75 24 | 3.58 27 | 2.97 28 METROPOLITAN
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.12 27 55 4.07( 2) 9 18 | 12 31 | 3.14 29 | 3.11 29 | 3.27 29 | 2.84 29 METROPOLITAN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 ATLANTIC = 4.20
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
3 Florida Panthers = 4.79 52 30 4.00( 20) 11 13 | 23 17 | 4.76 5 | 4.87 1 | 4.60 5 | 5.40 3 ATLANTIC
8 Boston Bruins = 4.65 47 35 4.02( 17) 15 9 | 24 17 | 4.73 8 | 4.57 9 | 4.46 8 | 3.51 24 ATLANTIC
10 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.55 46 36 4.02( 16) 11 13 | 19 21 | 4.58 10 | 4.46 10 | 4.49 7 | 3.46 25 ATLANTIC
11 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.40 45 37 4.01( 19) 14 13 | 19 20 | 4.43 11 | 4.34 13 | 4.33 10 | 3.76 20 ATLANTIC
15 Detroit Red Wings = 4.05 41 41 4.03( 11) 7 20 | 15 24 | 4.09 15 | 4.07 15 | 3.93 20 | 3.96 19 ATLANTIC
18 Buffalo Sabres = 3.94 39 43 4.03( 12) 7 19 | 17 26 | 3.87 18 | 3.94 17 | 4.08 15 | 4.65 7 ATLANTIC
24 Ottawa Senators = 3.69 37 45 4.06( 4) 8 19 | 19 25 | 3.63 25 | 3.74 25 | 3.83 23 | 4.32 13 ATLANTIC
28 Montreal Canadiens = 3.35 30 52 4.07( 1) 8 19 | 10 34 | 3.44 28 | 3.26 28 | 3.39 28 | 3.67 22 ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 central = 4.13
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
4 Dallas Stars = 4.77 52 30 3.97( 26) 11 13 | 21 19 | 4.74 6 | 4.83 3 | 4.60 3 | 4.73 6 central
6 Colorado Avalanche = 4.72 49 32 3.95( 31) 10 12 | 17 20 | 4.78 4 | 4.61 8 | 4.59 6 | 2.99 27 central
7 Winnipeg Jets = 4.70 51 30 3.95( 30) 12 10 | 21 17 | 4.74 7 | 4.78 5 | 4.39 9 | 5.94 1 central
14 Nashville Predators = 4.27 47 35 3.98( 23) 11 16 | 18 21 | 4.26 13 | 4.34 12 | 4.14 14 | 4.41 10 central
17 St. Louis Blues = 3.95 43 39 3.99( 21) 11 16 | 16 26 | 3.97 17 | 3.98 16 | 3.88 21 | 4.21 17 central
19 Minnesota Wild = 3.90 39 42 4.03( 14) 10 17 | 16 27 | 3.83 20 | 3.93 19 | 4.02 18 | 4.54 9 central
26 Arizona Coyotes = 3.59 36 46 4.03( 10) 6 21 | 15 28 | 3.58 26 | 3.66 26 | 3.61 26 | 4.30 14 central
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.60 23 58 4.07( 3) 6 22 | 9 34 | 2.61 31 | 2.58 31 | 2.91 31 | 1.68 32 central
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4 pacific = 3.87
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 17 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.21] [ 0.18] [ 0.23] [ 0.25] [ 0.25]
5 Edmonton Oilers = 4.74 49 32 3.94( 32) 8 14 | 19 19 | 4.78 3 | 4.63 7 | 4.65 2 | 4.37 11 pacific
9 Vancouver Canucks = 4.59 50 31 3.96( 29) 13 9 | 22 17 | 4.64 9 | 4.72 6 | 4.25 13 | 4.25 16 pacific
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.35 43 38 3.98( 24) 11 16 | 15 24 | 4.33 12 | 4.34 11 | 4.32 11 | 4.33 12 pacific
13 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.28 45 36 3.97( 28) 15 11 | 20 18 | 4.23 14 | 4.29 14 | 4.28 12 | 4.61 8 pacific
22 Calgary Flames = 3.73 37 44 4.05( 7) 10 17 | 20 24 | 3.67 24 | 3.77 23 | 3.86 22 | 3.70 21 pacific
27 Seattle Kraken = 3.53 33 48 3.99( 22) 8 18 | 14 28 | 3.47 27 | 3.49 27 | 3.79 24 | 3.52 23 pacific
30 Anaheim Ducks = 2.78 26 55 4.03( 13) 4 22 | 11 31 | 2.81 30 | 2.80 30 | 2.94 30 | 2.69 30 pacific
32 San Jose Sharks = 2.19 19 62 4.05( 5) 4 22 | 6 37 | 2.19 32 | 2.15 32 | 2.62 32 | 1.89 31 pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ Original Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ============================================================================================================== MINNESOTA WILD 0.58 0.54 0.68 0.49 0.94 seattle kraken 149 60% 5.35 WINNIPEG JETS 0.32 0.28 0.29 0.39 2.00 vancouver canucks 124 55% 5.13 COLORADO AVALANCHE 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.19 -0.33 edmonton oilers 114 53% 7.06 CALGARY FLAMES 1.75 1.66 1.85 1.50 1.94 san jose sharks 313 76% 6.01 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 1.71 1.61 1.72 1.60 2.35 anaheim ducks 304 75% 5.57 LOS ANGELES KINGS 1.96 1.90 1.99 1.67 3.19 chicago blackhawks 354 78% 4.98 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Minnesota Wild 0.66 157 61% Seattle Kraken 2 @ Winnipeg Jets 0.29 122 55% Vancouver Canucks 3 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.26 119 54% Edmonton Oilers 4 @ Calgary Flames 1.94 350 78% San Jose Sharks 5 @ Vegas Golden Knights 1.94 351 78% Anaheim Ducks 6 @ Los Angeles Kings 2.15 397 80% Chicago Blackhawks endfileTop_of_Page