United States Naval Observatory
 |
|---|
note: clock runs for 30 seconds; it may skip
seconds; to restart click reload
Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 JUNE 24 MONDAY - STANLEY CUP FINAL
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24]
1 Florida Panthers = 4.88 68 38 4.15( 1) 23 20 | 39 25 | 4.87 4 | 4.94 1 | 4.73 3 | 4.85 2 ATLANTIC
2 Edmonton Oilers = 4.88 64 43 4.11( 2) 19 24 | 34 30 | 4.91 2 | 4.77 5 | 4.75 2 | 4.81 3 pacific
3 New York Rangers = 4.87 65 33 4.06( 12) 19 15 | 28 21 | 4.96 1 | 4.88 2 | 4.66 5 | 4.57 6 METROPOLITAN
4 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.82 58 35 4.02( 26) 12 16 | 22 22 | 4.74 5 | 4.79 3 | 4.78 1 | 4.94 1 METROPOLITAN
5 Colorado Avalanche = 4.82 56 37 4.04( 17) 17 17 | 24 25 | 4.89 3 | 4.70 6 | 4.68 4 | 4.67 5 central
6 Dallas Stars = 4.74 62 39 4.10( 4) 17 19 | 31 28 | 4.71 7 | 4.78 4 | 4.62 6 | 4.68 4 central
7 Boston Bruins = 4.62 53 42 4.10( 3) 21 16 | 30 24 | 4.74 6 | 4.56 9 | 4.46 7 | 4.33 9 ATLANTIC
8 Winnipeg Jets = 4.47 53 34 4.01( 27) 14 14 | 23 21 | 4.55 9 | 4.62 8 | 4.29 9 | 4.24 12 central
9 Vancouver Canucks = 4.47 57 38 4.06( 14) 16 14 | 29 24 | 4.59 8 | 4.64 7 | 4.24 12 | 4.12 15 pacific
10 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.46 49 40 4.07( 8) 14 17 | 22 25 | 4.44 10 | 4.39 10 | 4.44 8 | 4.44 7 ATLANTIC
Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24]
11 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.28 46 41 4.06( 11) 15 17 | 20 24 | 4.23 13 | 4.26 13 | 4.28 10 | 4.38 8 ATLANTIC
12 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.27 48 41 4.02( 24) 18 15 | 23 22 | 4.23 12 | 4.25 14 | 4.27 11 | 4.26 11 pacific
13 Los Angeles Kings = 4.25 45 42 4.02( 21) 12 20 | 16 28 | 4.22 14 | 4.26 12 | 4.24 13 | 4.24 13 pacific
14 Nashville Predators = 4.22 49 39 4.02( 25) 13 20 | 20 25 | 4.25 11 | 4.31 11 | 4.13 14 | 4.20 14 central
15 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.01 38 44 4.01( 30) 8 18 | 15 23 | 3.96 17 | 3.93 17 | 4.07 16 | 4.11 16 METROPOLITAN
16 Detroit Red Wings = 4.00 41 41 4.03( 20) 7 20 | 15 24 | 4.05 15 | 4.06 15 | 3.93 19 | 3.87 22 ATLANTIC
17 Buffalo Sabres = 3.97 39 43 4.02( 23) 7 19 | 17 26 | 3.86 19 | 3.93 18 | 4.08 15 | 4.26 10 ATLANTIC
18 St. Louis Blues = 3.93 43 39 4.00( 31) 11 16 | 16 26 | 3.98 16 | 3.98 16 | 3.88 22 | 3.87 23 central
19 Minnesota Wild = 3.93 39 43 4.01( 29) 10 17 | 16 27 | 3.87 18 | 3.91 19 | 4.00 18 | 4.02 17 central
20 New Jersey Devils = 3.89 38 44 4.01( 28) 8 18 | 14 27 | 3.80 20 | 3.78 21 | 4.02 17 | 3.93 19 METROPOLITAN
Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24]
21 New York Islanders = 3.84 40 47 4.09( 6) 14 18 | 20 28 | 3.78 21 | 3.79 20 | 3.93 20 | 3.98 18 METROPOLITAN
22 Calgary Flames = 3.78 38 44 4.02( 22) 10 17 | 20 24 | 3.67 23 | 3.78 22 | 3.89 21 | 3.91 21 pacific
23 Ottawa Senators = 3.68 37 45 4.06( 13) 8 19 | 19 25 | 3.54 27 | 3.72 24 | 3.83 23 | 3.92 20 ATLANTIC
24 Washington Capitals = 3.66 40 46 4.09( 5) 8 23 | 17 30 | 3.66 24 | 3.71 25 | 3.69 25 | 3.67 26 METROPOLITAN
25 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.64 38 44 4.04( 16) 13 14 | 19 24 | 3.72 22 | 3.76 23 | 3.58 27 | 3.48 27 METROPOLITAN
26 Seattle Kraken = 3.64 34 48 3.99( 32) 8 18 | 14 28 | 3.54 26 | 3.55 27 | 3.80 24 | 3.87 24 pacific
27 Arizona Coyotes = 3.59 36 46 4.03( 19) 6 21 | 15 28 | 3.60 25 | 3.67 26 | 3.61 26 | 3.68 25 central
28 Montreal Canadiens = 3.36 30 52 4.07( 10) 8 19 | 10 34 | 3.46 28 | 3.31 28 | 3.39 28 | 3.36 28 ATLANTIC
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.14 27 55 4.07( 9) 9 18 | 12 31 | 3.15 29 | 3.15 29 | 3.26 29 | 3.23 29 METROPOLITAN
30 Anaheim Ducks = 2.91 27 55 4.03( 18) 4 22 | 12 31 | 2.99 30 | 2.94 30 | 2.98 30 | 2.81 31 pacific
Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.69 23 59 4.07( 7) 6 22 | 9 35 | 2.71 31 | 2.65 31 | 2.91 31 | 2.84 30 central
32 San Jose Sharks = 2.30 19 63 4.05( 15) 4 22 | 6 37 | 2.32 32 | 2.23 32 | 2.58 32 | 2.46 32 pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 ATLANTIC = 4.16 4.16 ( 1) 8 4.16 ( 1) 2 central = 4.10 4.05 ( 2) 8 4.05 ( 2) 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.94 3.98 ( 3) 8 3.98 ( 3) 4 pacific = 3.89 3.81 ( 4) 8 3.81 ( 4) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.94 3.98 ( 3) 8 3.98 ( 3) 1 ATLANTIC = 4.16 4.16 ( 1) 8 4.16 ( 1) 2 central = 4.10 4.05 ( 2) 8 4.05 ( 2) 4 pacific = 3.89 3.81 ( 4) 8 3.81 ( 4) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.94 Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24] 3 New York Rangers = 4.87 65 33 4.06( 12) 19 15 | 28 21 | 4.96 1 | 4.88 2 | 4.66 5 | 4.57 6 METROPOLITAN 4 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.82 58 35 4.02( 26) 12 16 | 22 22 | 4.74 5 | 4.79 3 | 4.78 1 | 4.94 1 METROPOLITAN 15 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.01 38 44 4.01( 30) 8 18 | 15 23 | 3.96 17 | 3.93 17 | 4.07 16 | 4.11 16 METROPOLITAN 20 New Jersey Devils = 3.89 38 44 4.01( 28) 8 18 | 14 27 | 3.80 20 | 3.78 21 | 4.02 17 | 3.93 19 METROPOLITAN 21 New York Islanders = 3.84 40 47 4.09( 6) 14 18 | 20 28 | 3.78 21 | 3.79 20 | 3.93 20 | 3.98 18 METROPOLITAN 24 Washington Capitals = 3.66 40 46 4.09( 5) 8 23 | 17 30 | 3.66 24 | 3.71 25 | 3.69 25 | 3.67 26 METROPOLITAN 25 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.64 38 44 4.04( 16) 13 14 | 19 24 | 3.72 22 | 3.76 23 | 3.58 27 | 3.48 27 METROPOLITAN 29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.14 27 55 4.07( 9) 9 18 | 12 31 | 3.15 29 | 3.15 29 | 3.26 29 | 3.23 29 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 4.16 Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24] 1 Florida Panthers = 4.88 68 38 4.15( 1) 23 20 | 39 25 | 4.87 4 | 4.94 1 | 4.73 3 | 4.85 2 ATLANTIC 7 Boston Bruins = 4.62 53 42 4.10( 3) 21 16 | 30 24 | 4.74 6 | 4.56 9 | 4.46 7 | 4.33 9 ATLANTIC 10 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.46 49 40 4.07( 8) 14 17 | 22 25 | 4.44 10 | 4.39 10 | 4.44 8 | 4.44 7 ATLANTIC 11 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.28 46 41 4.06( 11) 15 17 | 20 24 | 4.23 13 | 4.26 13 | 4.28 10 | 4.38 8 ATLANTIC 16 Detroit Red Wings = 4.00 41 41 4.03( 20) 7 20 | 15 24 | 4.05 15 | 4.06 15 | 3.93 19 | 3.87 22 ATLANTIC 17 Buffalo Sabres = 3.97 39 43 4.02( 23) 7 19 | 17 26 | 3.86 19 | 3.93 18 | 4.08 15 | 4.26 10 ATLANTIC 23 Ottawa Senators = 3.68 37 45 4.06( 13) 8 19 | 19 25 | 3.54 27 | 3.72 24 | 3.83 23 | 3.92 20 ATLANTIC 28 Montreal Canadiens = 3.36 30 52 4.07( 10) 8 19 | 10 34 | 3.46 28 | 3.31 28 | 3.39 28 | 3.36 28 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 central = 4.10 Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24] 5 Colorado Avalanche = 4.82 56 37 4.04( 17) 17 17 | 24 25 | 4.89 3 | 4.70 6 | 4.68 4 | 4.67 5 central 6 Dallas Stars = 4.74 62 39 4.10( 4) 17 19 | 31 28 | 4.71 7 | 4.78 4 | 4.62 6 | 4.68 4 central 8 Winnipeg Jets = 4.47 53 34 4.01( 27) 14 14 | 23 21 | 4.55 9 | 4.62 8 | 4.29 9 | 4.24 12 central 14 Nashville Predators = 4.22 49 39 4.02( 25) 13 20 | 20 25 | 4.25 11 | 4.31 11 | 4.13 14 | 4.20 14 central 18 St. Louis Blues = 3.93 43 39 4.00( 31) 11 16 | 16 26 | 3.98 16 | 3.98 16 | 3.88 22 | 3.87 23 central 19 Minnesota Wild = 3.93 39 43 4.01( 29) 10 17 | 16 27 | 3.87 18 | 3.91 19 | 4.00 18 | 4.02 17 central 27 Arizona Coyotes = 3.59 36 46 4.03( 19) 6 21 | 15 28 | 3.60 25 | 3.67 26 | 3.61 26 | 3.68 25 central 31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.69 23 59 4.07( 7) 6 22 | 9 35 | 2.71 31 | 2.65 31 | 2.91 31 | 2.84 30 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.89 Final NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 24 Monday - STANLEY CUP FINAL RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.22] [ 0.20] [ 0.22] [ 0.24] [ 0.24] 2 Edmonton Oilers = 4.88 64 43 4.11( 2) 19 24 | 34 30 | 4.91 2 | 4.77 5 | 4.75 2 | 4.81 3 pacific 9 Vancouver Canucks = 4.47 57 38 4.06( 14) 16 14 | 29 24 | 4.59 8 | 4.64 7 | 4.24 12 | 4.12 15 pacific 12 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.27 48 41 4.02( 24) 18 15 | 23 22 | 4.23 12 | 4.25 14 | 4.27 11 | 4.26 11 pacific 13 Los Angeles Kings = 4.25 45 42 4.02( 21) 12 20 | 16 28 | 4.22 14 | 4.26 12 | 4.24 13 | 4.24 13 pacific 22 Calgary Flames = 3.78 38 44 4.02( 22) 10 17 | 20 24 | 3.67 23 | 3.78 22 | 3.89 21 | 3.91 21 pacific 26 Seattle Kraken = 3.64 34 48 3.99( 32) 8 18 | 14 28 | 3.54 26 | 3.55 27 | 3.80 24 | 3.87 24 pacific 30 Anaheim Ducks = 2.91 27 55 4.03( 18) 4 22 | 12 31 | 2.99 30 | 2.94 30 | 2.98 30 | 2.81 31 pacific 32 San Jose Sharks = 2.30 19 63 4.05( 15) 4 22 | 6 37 | 2.32 32 | 2.23 32 | 2.58 32 | 2.46 32 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================ @ Florida Panthers 0.22 0.16 0.38 0.21 0.27 Edmonton Oilers 117 54% 5.92 @ Florida Panthers 0.51 0.44 0.66 0.49 0.56 Edmonton Oilers 142 59% 5.92 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Florida Panthers 0.45 137 58% Edmonton Oilers 2 1 PREDICTION right endfileTop_of_Page