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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2015-2016 ratings through results of 2016 FEBRUARY 7 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   1  Washington Capitals     =   4.68   38  13    3.96(  26)   10   5  |   17   7  |    4.73    1 |    4.80    1 |    4.47    5
   2  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.48   36  20    3.98(  19)   10   7  |   19   8  |    4.47    2 |    4.49    2 |    4.48    3
   3  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.38   29  22    4.01(  13)    5  12  |   11  17  |    4.36    5 |    4.36    4 |    4.60    1
   4  Florida Panthers        =   4.38   31  21    4.02(  10)   11   8  |   15  14  |    4.40    4 |    4.34    5 |    4.47    4
   5  Dallas Stars            =   4.32   33  20    3.97(  23)    6   8  |   13   9  |    4.42    3 |    4.41    3 |    3.97   18
   6  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.25   31  20    3.92(  30)    9   5  |   15   7  |    4.28    6 |    4.31    6 |    3.99   15
   7  New York Rangers        =   4.24   29  23    3.97(  21)    7   7  |   10  11  |    4.25    7 |    4.25    7 |    4.20    7
   8  New York Islanders      =   4.17   27  24    3.96(  25)    8   7  |   11  15  |    4.23    8 |    4.17    8 |    4.03   12
   9  St. Louis Blues         =   4.15   30  25    3.97(  22)    5   9  |   14  13  |    4.12   11 |    4.16    9 |    4.12   10
  10  San Jose Sharks         =   4.14   27  24    4.02(  12)    6   9  |   11  16  |    4.16   10 |    4.12   10 |    4.14    9
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
  11  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.13   26  25    3.98(  18)    6  11  |   10  15  |    4.08   12 |    4.12   11 |    4.36    6
  12  Boston Bruins           =   4.11   28  24    3.92(  29)    6   7  |   12  12  |    4.17    9 |    4.10   12 |    3.97   17
  13  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.07   25  25    3.95(  28)    8  11  |   12  14  |    4.00   15 |    4.04   13 |    4.50    2
  14  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.02   26  28    3.98(  20)    7   9  |   12  15  |    4.08   13 |    4.04   14 |    3.75   24
  15  Detroit Red Wings       =   4.01   26  26    3.96(  24)    8   9  |   12  14  |    3.98   17 |    4.00   15 |    4.14    8
  16  Nashville Predators     =   3.98   25  28    3.99(  16)    5  12  |    9  16  |    3.97   18 |    3.94   18 |    4.11   11
  17  Minnesota Wild          =   3.97   23  29    4.02(  11)    9  11  |   13  19  |    4.07   14 |    3.98   17 |    3.54   28
  18  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.97   27  28    4.03(   8)   12  12  |   17  15  |    3.99   16 |    3.99   16 |    3.81   22
  19  Calgary Flames          =   3.87   23  28    4.01(  14)    8  12  |   12  17  |    3.82   20 |    3.85   21 |    4.03   13
  20  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.86   23  28    4.06(   5)    8  14  |   15  17  |    3.82   21 |    3.83   22 |    4.02   14
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
  21  Ottawa Senators         =   3.84   24  29    4.04(   7)   10  10  |   14  20  |    3.81   22 |    3.86   20 |    3.83   21
  22  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.84   23  29    4.01(  15)    5  13  |   10  17  |    3.84   19 |    3.86   19 |    3.75   23
  23  New Jersey Devils       =   3.77   26  27    3.98(  17)    7   8  |   11  16  |    3.74   23 |    3.76   23 |    3.87   20
  24  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.75   21  33    4.06(   4)    5  16  |   10  20  |    3.69   24 |    3.71   24 |    3.98   16
  25  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.71   24  30    4.03(   9)    6  12  |   12  18  |    3.65   26 |    3.67   25 |    3.92   19
  26  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.66   20  32    4.05(   6)    6  12  |   11  19  |    3.68   25 |    3.64   26 |    3.69   26
  27  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.63   21  32    4.07(   2)    5  16  |   10  25  |    3.62   27 |    3.60   28 |    3.70   25
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.62   21  33    4.07(   1)    4  18  |   10  24  |    3.61   28 |    3.62   27 |    3.61   27
  29  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.50   19  32    4.06(   3)    6  12  |   10  22  |    3.51   29 |    3.48   30 |    3.53   29
  30  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.49   24  28    3.95(  27)    4   9  |   10  15  |    3.46   30 |    3.52   29 |    3.42   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.07       4.10  (  1)      7       4.10  (  1)
   2  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.01       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.99       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.87       3.87  (  4)      7       3.87  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.99       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   2  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.01       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.07       4.10  (  1)      7       4.10  (  1)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.87       3.87  (  4)      7       3.87  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.99       3.98  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.98  (  3)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   3  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.38   29  22    4.01(  13)    5  12  |   11  17  |    4.36    5 |    4.36    4 |    4.60    1
   4  Florida Panthers        =   4.38   31  21    4.02(  10)   11   8  |   15  14  |    4.40    4 |    4.34    5 |    4.47    4
  12  Boston Bruins           =   4.11   28  24    3.92(  29)    6   7  |   12  12  |    4.17    9 |    4.10   12 |    3.97   17
  14  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.02   26  28    3.98(  20)    7   9  |   12  15  |    4.08   13 |    4.04   14 |    3.75   24
  15  Detroit Red Wings       =   4.01   26  26    3.96(  24)    8   9  |   12  14  |    3.98   17 |    4.00   15 |    4.14    8
  21  Ottawa Senators         =   3.84   24  29    4.04(   7)   10  10  |   14  20  |    3.81   22 |    3.86   20 |    3.83   21
  27  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.63   21  32    4.07(   2)    5  16  |   10  25  |    3.62   27 |    3.60   28 |    3.70   25
  29  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.50   19  32    4.06(   3)    6  12  |   10  22  |    3.51   29 |    3.48   30 |    3.53   29
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.01       4.04  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.04  (  2)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   1  Washington Capitals     =   4.68   38  13    3.96(  26)   10   5  |   17   7  |    4.73    1 |    4.80    1 |    4.47    5
   7  New York Rangers        =   4.24   29  23    3.97(  21)    7   7  |   10  11  |    4.25    7 |    4.25    7 |    4.20    7
   8  New York Islanders      =   4.17   27  24    3.96(  25)    8   7  |   11  15  |    4.23    8 |    4.17    8 |    4.03   12
  11  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.13   26  25    3.98(  18)    6  11  |   10  15  |    4.08   12 |    4.12   11 |    4.36    6
  20  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.86   23  28    4.06(   5)    8  14  |   15  17  |    3.82   21 |    3.83   22 |    4.02   14
  23  New Jersey Devils       =   3.77   26  27    3.98(  17)    7   8  |   11  16  |    3.74   23 |    3.76   23 |    3.87   20
  24  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.75   21  33    4.06(   4)    5  16  |   10  20  |    3.69   24 |    3.71   24 |    3.98   16
  25  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.71   24  30    4.03(   9)    6  12  |   12  18  |    3.65   26 |    3.67   25 |    3.92   19
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.07       4.10  (  1)   TEAMS=  7       4.10  (  1)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   2  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.48   36  20    3.98(  19)   10   7  |   19   8  |    4.47    2 |    4.49    2 |    4.48    3
   5  Dallas Stars            =   4.32   33  20    3.97(  23)    6   8  |   13   9  |    4.42    3 |    4.41    3 |    3.97   18
   9  St. Louis Blues         =   4.15   30  25    3.97(  22)    5   9  |   14  13  |    4.12   11 |    4.16    9 |    4.12   10
  16  Nashville Predators     =   3.98   25  28    3.99(  16)    5  12  |    9  16  |    3.97   18 |    3.94   18 |    4.11   11
  17  Minnesota Wild          =   3.97   23  29    4.02(  11)    9  11  |   13  19  |    4.07   14 |    3.98   17 |    3.54   28
  18  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.97   27  28    4.03(   8)   12  12  |   17  15  |    3.99   16 |    3.99   16 |    3.81   22
  22  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.84   23  29    4.01(  15)    5  13  |   10  17  |    3.84   19 |    3.86   19 |    3.75   23
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.87       3.87  (  4)   TEAMS=  7       3.87  (  4)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 February 7 Sunday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.24]                                               [  0.24]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   6  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.25   31  20    3.92(  30)    9   5  |   15   7  |    4.28    6 |    4.31    6 |    3.99   15
  10  San Jose Sharks         =   4.14   27  24    4.02(  12)    6   9  |   11  16  |    4.16   10 |    4.12   10 |    4.14    9
  13  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.07   25  25    3.95(  28)    8  11  |   12  14  |    4.00   15 |    4.04   13 |    4.50    2
  19  Calgary Flames          =   3.87   23  28    4.01(  14)    8  12  |   12  17  |    3.82   20 |    3.85   21 |    4.03   13
  26  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.66   20  32    4.05(   6)    6  12  |   11  19  |    3.68   25 |    3.64   26 |    3.69   26
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.62   21  33    4.07(   1)    4  18  |   10  24  |    3.61   28 |    3.62   27 |    3.61   27
  30  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.49   24  28    3.95(  27)    4   9  |   10  15  |    3.46   30 |    3.52   29 |    3.42   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile