United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2024-2025 ratings through results of 2024 DECEMBER 19 THURSDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15]
1 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.61 18 12 4.11( 2) 6 6 | 10 9 | 4.62 1 | 4.71 2 | 4.45 3 | 4.80 1 ATLANTIC
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.56 20 11 3.98( 18) 5 4 | 9 6 | 4.60 2 | 4.56 5 | 4.44 4 | 4.63 4 METROPOLITAN
3 Winnipeg Jets = 4.53 23 11 3.98( 19) 4 6 | 8 7 | 4.55 5 | 4.68 3 | 4.35 8 | 4.60 6 central
4 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.52 21 11 4.12( 1) 5 7 | 11 9 | 4.56 4 | 4.63 4 | 4.34 9 | 4.51 8 pacific
5 Dallas Stars = 4.51 19 12 3.97( 21) 4 7 | 6 8 | 4.57 3 | 4.44 7 | 4.45 2 | 4.51 9 central
6 Washington Capitals = 4.49 21 10 4.06( 7) 8 6 | 10 7 | 4.53 6 | 4.84 1 | 4.25 12 | 4.67 2 METROPOLITAN
7 New Jersey Devils = 4.49 21 14 4.01( 13) 6 7 | 10 8 | 4.49 9 | 4.48 6 | 4.43 5 | 4.62 5 METROPOLITAN
8 Edmonton Oilers = 4.48 19 13 4.00( 15) 2 8 | 7 9 | 4.53 7 | 4.33 12 | 4.56 1 | 4.66 3 pacific
9 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.46 20 12 4.00( 16) 9 2 | 10 5 | 4.50 8 | 4.41 10 | 4.42 7 | 4.50 10 ATLANTIC
10 Florida Panthers = 4.45 20 13 4.08( 5) 8 4 | 10 9 | 4.43 10 | 4.42 9 | 4.43 6 | 4.52 7 ATLANTIC
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15]
11 Los Angeles Kings = 4.31 19 13 3.90( 30) 3 3 | 7 6 | 4.31 11 | 4.33 11 | 4.27 11 | 4.49 11 pacific
12 Minnesota Wild = 4.30 20 12 3.97( 20) 5 6 | 6 8 | 4.28 12 | 4.43 8 | 4.19 13 | 4.34 12 central
13 Colorado Avalanche = 4.20 19 15 4.03( 10) 5 8 | 7 9 | 4.19 13 | 4.11 13 | 4.27 10 | 4.20 13 central
14 Vancouver Canucks = 4.10 16 16 3.93( 28) 2 6 | 5 8 | 4.15 14 | 3.96 16 | 4.18 14 | 4.06 15 pacific
15 Ottawa Senators = 4.06 17 15 3.96( 23) 4 5 | 5 9 | 4.07 15 | 4.09 14 | 4.03 17 | 4.07 14 ATLANTIC
16 New York Rangers = 4.02 15 16 3.86( 32) 1 6 | 3 7 | 4.06 16 | 3.82 17 | 4.14 15 | 3.83 18 METROPOLITAN
17 Utah Hockey Club = 4.01 15 16 4.05( 9) 2 8 | 5 12 | 4.03 17 | 4.06 15 | 3.97 18 | 4.05 16 central
18 Boston Bruins = 3.97 17 17 3.96( 22) 1 8 | 4 10 | 3.98 18 | 3.80 19 | 4.10 16 | 3.86 17 ATLANTIC
19 Seattle Kraken = 3.77 15 19 3.94( 26) 2 7 | 4 13 | 3.81 19 | 3.73 22 | 3.82 23 | 3.70 20 pacific
20 St. Louis Blues = 3.77 15 19 4.10( 4) 6 8 | 9 11 | 3.77 20 | 3.81 18 | 3.77 24 | 3.63 23 central
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15]
21 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.73 15 19 4.00( 14) 3 8 | 5 14 | 3.69 22 | 3.67 23 | 3.84 21 | 3.67 22 METROPOLITAN
22 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.68 14 19 4.02( 11) 1 8 | 5 12 | 3.75 21 | 3.63 24 | 3.71 26 | 3.49 26 METROPOLITAN
23 Nashville Predators = 3.68 9 24 4.11( 3) 2 10 | 5 15 | 3.68 23 | 3.32 31 | 3.92 19 | 3.53 25 central
24 Detroit Red Wings = 3.66 13 18 3.89( 31) 2 4 | 2 11 | 3.61 24 | 3.51 26 | 3.85 20 | 3.73 19 ATLANTIC
25 Calgary Flames = 3.63 15 18 3.99( 17) 3 6 | 7 9 | 3.51 27 | 3.77 20 | 3.66 27 | 3.68 21 pacific
26 New York Islanders = 3.63 12 21 3.95( 25) 2 6 | 6 8 | 3.58 25 | 3.47 28 | 3.83 22 | 3.61 24 METROPOLITAN
27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.56 11 21 3.93( 29) 2 6 | 5 11 | 3.54 26 | 3.43 30 | 3.73 25 | 3.46 27 ATLANTIC
28 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.51 13 20 4.05( 8) 6 7 | 7 11 | 3.43 28 | 3.75 21 | 3.29 31 | 3.32 30 METROPOLITAN
29 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.39 12 21 4.02( 12) 4 6 | 8 9 | 3.35 30 | 3.50 27 | 3.41 29 | 3.40 28 central
30 Anaheim Ducks = 3.39 12 18 3.95( 24) 2 5 | 3 13 | 3.35 31 | 3.54 25 | 3.34 30 | 3.35 29 pacific
NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15]
31 Montreal Canadiens = 3.39 12 19 3.94( 27) 2 6 | 3 10 | 3.40 29 | 3.43 29 | 3.44 28 | 3.26 31 ATLANTIC
32 San Jose Sharks = 3.17 11 24 4.06( 6) 2 8 | 4 15 | 3.08 32 | 3.32 32 | 3.14 32 | 3.24 32 pacific
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endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 central = 4.07 4.05 ( 1) 8 4.05 ( 1) 2 ATLANTIC = 4.02 4.02 ( 2) 8 4.02 ( 2) 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.99 4.01 ( 3) 8 4.01 ( 3) 4 pacific = 3.94 3.92 ( 4) 8 3.92 ( 4) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.99 4.01 ( 3) 8 4.01 ( 3) 2 ATLANTIC = 4.02 4.02 ( 2) 8 4.02 ( 2) 1 central = 4.07 4.05 ( 1) 8 4.05 ( 1) 4 pacific = 3.94 3.92 ( 4) 8 3.92 ( 4) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 METROPOLITAN = 3.99 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15] 2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.56 20 11 3.98( 18) 5 4 | 9 6 | 4.60 2 | 4.56 5 | 4.44 4 | 4.63 4 METROPOLITAN 6 Washington Capitals = 4.49 21 10 4.06( 7) 8 6 | 10 7 | 4.53 6 | 4.84 1 | 4.25 12 | 4.67 2 METROPOLITAN 7 New Jersey Devils = 4.49 21 14 4.01( 13) 6 7 | 10 8 | 4.49 9 | 4.48 6 | 4.43 5 | 4.62 5 METROPOLITAN 16 New York Rangers = 4.02 15 16 3.86( 32) 1 6 | 3 7 | 4.06 16 | 3.82 17 | 4.14 15 | 3.83 18 METROPOLITAN 21 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.73 15 19 4.00( 14) 3 8 | 5 14 | 3.69 22 | 3.67 23 | 3.84 21 | 3.67 22 METROPOLITAN 22 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.68 14 19 4.02( 11) 1 8 | 5 12 | 3.75 21 | 3.63 24 | 3.71 26 | 3.49 26 METROPOLITAN 26 New York Islanders = 3.63 12 21 3.95( 25) 2 6 | 6 8 | 3.58 25 | 3.47 28 | 3.83 22 | 3.61 24 METROPOLITAN 28 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.51 13 20 4.05( 8) 6 7 | 7 11 | 3.43 28 | 3.75 21 | 3.29 31 | 3.32 30 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 ATLANTIC = 4.02 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15] 1 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.61 18 12 4.11( 2) 6 6 | 10 9 | 4.62 1 | 4.71 2 | 4.45 3 | 4.80 1 ATLANTIC 9 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.46 20 12 4.00( 16) 9 2 | 10 5 | 4.50 8 | 4.41 10 | 4.42 7 | 4.50 10 ATLANTIC 10 Florida Panthers = 4.45 20 13 4.08( 5) 8 4 | 10 9 | 4.43 10 | 4.42 9 | 4.43 6 | 4.52 7 ATLANTIC 15 Ottawa Senators = 4.06 17 15 3.96( 23) 4 5 | 5 9 | 4.07 15 | 4.09 14 | 4.03 17 | 4.07 14 ATLANTIC 18 Boston Bruins = 3.97 17 17 3.96( 22) 1 8 | 4 10 | 3.98 18 | 3.80 19 | 4.10 16 | 3.86 17 ATLANTIC 24 Detroit Red Wings = 3.66 13 18 3.89( 31) 2 4 | 2 11 | 3.61 24 | 3.51 26 | 3.85 20 | 3.73 19 ATLANTIC 27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.56 11 21 3.93( 29) 2 6 | 5 11 | 3.54 26 | 3.43 30 | 3.73 25 | 3.46 27 ATLANTIC 31 Montreal Canadiens = 3.39 12 19 3.94( 27) 2 6 | 3 10 | 3.40 29 | 3.43 29 | 3.44 28 | 3.26 31 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 central = 4.07 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15] 3 Winnipeg Jets = 4.53 23 11 3.98( 19) 4 6 | 8 7 | 4.55 5 | 4.68 3 | 4.35 8 | 4.60 6 central 5 Dallas Stars = 4.51 19 12 3.97( 21) 4 7 | 6 8 | 4.57 3 | 4.44 7 | 4.45 2 | 4.51 9 central 12 Minnesota Wild = 4.30 20 12 3.97( 20) 5 6 | 6 8 | 4.28 12 | 4.43 8 | 4.19 13 | 4.34 12 central 13 Colorado Avalanche = 4.20 19 15 4.03( 10) 5 8 | 7 9 | 4.19 13 | 4.11 13 | 4.27 10 | 4.20 13 central 17 Utah Hockey Club = 4.01 15 16 4.05( 9) 2 8 | 5 12 | 4.03 17 | 4.06 15 | 3.97 18 | 4.05 16 central 20 St. Louis Blues = 3.77 15 19 4.10( 4) 6 8 | 9 11 | 3.77 20 | 3.81 18 | 3.77 24 | 3.63 23 central 23 Nashville Predators = 3.68 9 24 4.11( 3) 2 10 | 5 15 | 3.68 23 | 3.32 31 | 3.92 19 | 3.53 25 central 29 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.39 12 21 4.02( 12) 4 6 | 8 9 | 3.35 30 | 3.50 27 | 3.41 29 | 3.40 28 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.94 NHL 2024-2025 through games of 2024 December 19 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.18] [ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.15] [ 0.15] 4 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.52 21 11 4.12( 1) 5 7 | 11 9 | 4.56 4 | 4.63 4 | 4.34 9 | 4.51 8 pacific 8 Edmonton Oilers = 4.48 19 13 4.00( 15) 2 8 | 7 9 | 4.53 7 | 4.33 12 | 4.56 1 | 4.66 3 pacific 11 Los Angeles Kings = 4.31 19 13 3.90( 30) 3 3 | 7 6 | 4.31 11 | 4.33 11 | 4.27 11 | 4.49 11 pacific 14 Vancouver Canucks = 4.10 16 16 3.93( 28) 2 6 | 5 8 | 4.15 14 | 3.96 16 | 4.18 14 | 4.06 15 pacific 19 Seattle Kraken = 3.77 15 19 3.94( 26) 2 7 | 4 13 | 3.81 19 | 3.73 22 | 3.82 23 | 3.70 20 pacific 25 Calgary Flames = 3.63 15 18 3.99( 17) 3 6 | 7 9 | 3.51 27 | 3.77 20 | 3.66 27 | 3.68 21 pacific 30 Anaheim Ducks = 3.39 12 18 3.95( 24) 2 5 | 3 13 | 3.35 31 | 3.54 25 | 3.34 30 | 3.35 29 pacific 32 San Jose Sharks = 3.17 11 24 4.06( 6) 2 8 | 4 15 | 3.08 32 | 3.32 32 | 3.14 32 | 3.24 32 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================== @ Washington Capitals 0.12 0.13 0.47 -0.05 0.19 Carolina Hurricanes 108 52% 6.41 Toronto Maple Leafs 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.54 0.89 @ Buffalo Sabres 164 62% 5.90 @ Florida Panthers 0.86 0.86 0.80 0.80 1.05 St. Louis Blues 179 64% 6.24 @ Detroit Red Wings 0.45 0.42 0.28 0.55 0.62 Montreal Canadiens 136 58% 6.16 @ Minnesota Wild 0.47 0.45 0.56 0.37 0.43 Utah Hockey Club 138 58% 5.54 @ Dallas Stars 0.67 0.71 0.81 0.45 0.84 New York Rangers 158 61% 5.62 Colorado Avalanche 0.63 0.64 0.38 0.79 0.70 @ Anaheim Ducks 153 61% 6.01 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM @ Washington Capitals 0.62 0.64 0.98 0.46 0.70 Carolina Hurricanes 153 60% 6.41 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Toronto Maple Leafs 0.72 0.75 0.78 0.53 0.87 @ Buffalo Sabres 163 62% 5.90 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Florida Panthers 0.96 0.97 0.90 0.91 1.15 St. Louis Blues 191 66% 6.24 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Detroit Red Wings 1.03 1.00 0.85 1.13 1.19 Montreal Canadiens 199 67% 6.16 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Utah Hockey Club 0.27 0.29 0.18 0.37 0.31 @ Minnesota Wild 121 55% 5.54 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Dallas Stars 1.30 1.34 1.44 1.09 1.47 New York Rangers 237 70% 5.62 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Colorado Avalanche 1.05 1.06 0.80 1.21 1.13 @ Anaheim Ducks 203 67% 6.01 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Washington Capitals 0.61 151 60% Carolina Hurricanes 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 1.37 247 71% @ Buffalo Sabres 3 @ Florida Panthers 0.75 166 62% St. Louis Blues 4 @ Detroit Red Wings 0.78 169 63% Montreal Canadiens 5 @ Minnesota Wild 1.50 268 73% Utah Hockey Club 6 @ Dallas Stars 1.15 216 68% New York Rangers 7 Colorado Avalanche 0.55 146 59% @ Anaheim Ducks endfileTop_of_Page