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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2018-2019 ratings through results of 2019 FEBRUARY 15 FRIDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   1  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.87   43  15    3.94(  29)    7   7  |   18   9  |    4.89    1 |    4.97    1 |    4.69    2  ATLANTIC
   2  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.48   36  21    3.99(  19)   10   8  |   18  12  |    4.67    2 |    4.61    2 |    4.17   11  ATLANTIC
   3  Nashville Predators     =   4.41   34  26    3.97(  24)    9   9  |   17  13  |    4.48    3 |    4.47    4 |    4.21    9  central
   4  Boston Bruins           =   4.38   33  25    3.93(  31)    8   8  |   15  12  |    4.37    7 |    4.33    7 |    4.57    3  ATLANTIC
   5  San Jose Sharks         =   4.36   34  24    3.98(  22)    9   7  |   14  13  |    4.40    6 |    4.41    6 |    4.18   10  pacific
   6  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.28   36  22    3.94(  30)    8   9  |   13  12  |    4.48    4 |    4.53    3 |    3.59   26  central
   7  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.26   30  27    4.00(  17)    9   7  |   15  13  |    4.31    8 |    4.28    8 |    4.16   12  METROPOLITAN
   8  Calgary Flames          =   4.25   34  23    4.02(   9)    8  11  |   12  16  |    4.40    5 |    4.42    5 |    3.72   23  pacific
   9  Washington Capitals     =   4.24   32  26    3.97(  28)    6  11  |   12  19  |    4.21   11 |    4.22   10 |    4.38    5  METROPOLITAN
  10  St. Louis Blues         =   4.23   29  27    4.00(  16)   11   8  |   17  13  |    4.16   12 |    4.15   13 |    4.88    1  central
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
  11  New York Islanders      =   4.22   34  23    4.02(  12)    8  11  |   14  16  |    4.22   10 |    4.19   11 |    4.32    8  METROPOLITAN
  12  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.17   32  24    3.97(  25)    7   9  |   12  14  |    4.22    9 |    4.22    9 |    3.95   17  METROPOLITAN
  13  Dallas Stars            =   4.09   29  28    4.03(   7)   13  10  |   15  15  |    4.07   14 |    4.09   14 |    4.11   13  central
  14  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.07   30  28    3.99(  20)    5  12  |   10  18  |    4.00   16 |    3.99   15 |    4.49    4  METROPOLITAN
  15  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.05   31  28    3.99(  21)    5  13  |    9  18  |    4.14   13 |    4.16   12 |    3.52   29  pacific
  16  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.95   31  26    3.97(  26)    9  11  |   15  13  |    4.02   15 |    3.92   16 |    3.94   18  ATLANTIC
  17  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.90   26  31    3.98(  23)    5  13  |    8  20  |    3.84   20 |    3.87   18 |    4.08   14  METROPOLITAN
  18  Minnesota Wild          =   3.85   27  31    3.97(  27)    7  10  |   12  16  |    3.95   17 |    3.91   17 |    3.37   30  central
  19  Florida Panthers        =   3.83   24  32    4.05(   3)   10  11  |   13  18  |    3.79   21 |    3.83   20 |    3.86   19  ATLANTIC
  20  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.82   24  34    4.03(   6)    7  16  |   10  23  |    3.69   22 |    3.68   23 |    4.34    6  central
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
  21  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.81   23  34    4.06(   2)    5  17  |    9  23  |    3.92   18 |    3.84   19 |    3.53   28  central
  22  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.78   25  32    4.03(   8)    8  12  |   12  21  |    3.68   24 |    3.72   22 |    4.04   15  pacific
  23  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.76   28  29    4.00(  14)    6  13  |   12  19  |    3.84   19 |    3.75   21 |    3.71   24  ATLANTIC
  24  New York Rangers        =   3.74   25  32    4.01(  13)    7  10  |   13  19  |    3.54   28 |    3.54   28 |    4.32    7  METROPOLITAN
  25  New Jersey Devils       =   3.69   22  36    4.07(   1)    6  13  |   12  23  |    3.68   23 |    3.68   25 |    3.73   22  METROPOLITAN
  26  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.68   26  33    4.04(   5)   10  12  |   12  19  |    3.59   26 |    3.67   26 |    3.79   20  pacific
  27  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.66   23  34    4.00(  15)    5  12  |   11  18  |    3.61   25 |    3.64   27 |    3.76   21  pacific
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.64   24  33    4.02(  11)    7  15  |   10  20  |    3.59   27 |    3.68   24 |    3.56   27  pacific
  29  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.62   23  35    4.02(  10)    7  13  |   11  22  |    3.47   29 |    3.43   30 |    4.03   16  ATLANTIC
  30  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.48   22  36    4.04(   4)    7  12  |   12  20  |    3.44   30 |    3.53   29 |    3.30   31  pacific
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
  31  Ottawa Senators         =   3.43   21  36    4.00(  18)    7  11  |   10  21  |    3.33   31 |    3.27   31 |    3.71   25  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  central                 =   4.06       4.07  (  1)      7       4.07  (  1)
   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.06       4.04  (  3)      8       4.04  (  2)
   3  ATLANTIC                =   4.00       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  3)
   4  pacific                 =   3.83       3.86  (  4)      8       3.86  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC                =   4.00       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  3)
   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.06       4.04  (  3)      8       4.04  (  2)
   1  central                 =   4.06       4.07  (  1)      7       4.07  (  1)
   4  pacific                 =   3.83       3.86  (  4)      8       3.86  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC                =   4.00       4.04  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.04  (  3)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   1  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.87   43  15    3.94(  29)    7   7  |   18   9  |    4.89    1 |    4.97    1 |    4.69    2  ATLANTIC
   2  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.48   36  21    3.99(  19)   10   8  |   18  12  |    4.67    2 |    4.61    2 |    4.17   11  ATLANTIC
   4  Boston Bruins           =   4.38   33  25    3.93(  31)    8   8  |   15  12  |    4.37    7 |    4.33    7 |    4.57    3  ATLANTIC
  16  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.95   31  26    3.97(  26)    9  11  |   15  13  |    4.02   15 |    3.92   16 |    3.94   18  ATLANTIC
  19  Florida Panthers        =   3.83   24  32    4.05(   3)   10  11  |   13  18  |    3.79   21 |    3.83   20 |    3.86   19  ATLANTIC
  23  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.76   28  29    4.00(  14)    6  13  |   12  19  |    3.84   19 |    3.75   21 |    3.71   24  ATLANTIC
  29  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.62   23  35    4.02(  10)    7  13  |   11  22  |    3.47   29 |    3.43   30 |    4.03   16  ATLANTIC
  31  Ottawa Senators         =   3.43   21  36    4.00(  18)    7  11  |   10  21  |    3.33   31 |    3.27   31 |    3.71   25  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.06       4.04  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       4.04  (  2)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   7  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.26   30  27    4.00(  17)    9   7  |   15  13  |    4.31    8 |    4.28    8 |    4.16   12  METROPOLITAN
   9  Washington Capitals     =   4.24   32  26    3.97(  28)    6  11  |   12  19  |    4.21   11 |    4.22   10 |    4.38    5  METROPOLITAN
  11  New York Islanders      =   4.22   34  23    4.02(  12)    8  11  |   14  16  |    4.22   10 |    4.19   11 |    4.32    8  METROPOLITAN
  12  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.17   32  24    3.97(  25)    7   9  |   12  14  |    4.22    9 |    4.22    9 |    3.95   17  METROPOLITAN
  14  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.07   30  28    3.99(  20)    5  12  |   10  18  |    4.00   16 |    3.99   15 |    4.49    4  METROPOLITAN
  17  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.90   26  31    3.98(  23)    5  13  |    8  20  |    3.84   20 |    3.87   18 |    4.08   14  METROPOLITAN
  24  New York Rangers        =   3.74   25  32    4.01(  13)    7  10  |   13  19  |    3.54   28 |    3.54   28 |    4.32    7  METROPOLITAN
  25  New Jersey Devils       =   3.69   22  36    4.07(   1)    6  13  |   12  23  |    3.68   23 |    3.68   25 |    3.73   22  METROPOLITAN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  central                 =   4.06       4.07  (  1)   TEAMS=  7       4.07  (  1)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   3  Nashville Predators     =   4.41   34  26    3.97(  24)    9   9  |   17  13  |    4.48    3 |    4.47    4 |    4.21    9  central
   6  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.28   36  22    3.94(  30)    8   9  |   13  12  |    4.48    4 |    4.53    3 |    3.59   26  central
  10  St. Louis Blues         =   4.23   29  27    4.00(  16)   11   8  |   17  13  |    4.16   12 |    4.15   13 |    4.88    1  central
  13  Dallas Stars            =   4.09   29  28    4.03(   7)   13  10  |   15  15  |    4.07   14 |    4.09   14 |    4.11   13  central
  18  Minnesota Wild          =   3.85   27  31    3.97(  27)    7  10  |   12  16  |    3.95   17 |    3.91   17 |    3.37   30  central
  20  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.82   24  34    4.03(   6)    7  16  |   10  23  |    3.69   22 |    3.68   23 |    4.34    6  central
  21  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.81   23  34    4.06(   2)    5  17  |    9  23  |    3.92   18 |    3.84   19 |    3.53   28  central
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  pacific                 =   3.83       3.86  (  4)   TEAMS=  8       3.86  (  4)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 February 15 Friday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.27]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   5  San Jose Sharks         =   4.36   34  24    3.98(  22)    9   7  |   14  13  |    4.40    6 |    4.41    6 |    4.18   10  pacific
   8  Calgary Flames          =   4.25   34  23    4.02(   9)    8  11  |   12  16  |    4.40    5 |    4.42    5 |    3.72   23  pacific
  15  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.05   31  28    3.99(  21)    5  13  |    9  18  |    4.14   13 |    4.16   12 |    3.52   29  pacific
  22  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.78   25  32    4.03(   8)    8  12  |   12  21  |    3.68   24 |    3.72   22 |    4.04   15  pacific
  26  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.68   26  33    4.04(   5)   10  12  |   12  19  |    3.59   26 |    3.67   26 |    3.79   20  pacific
  27  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.66   23  34    4.00(  15)    5  12  |   11  18  |    3.61   25 |    3.64   27 |    3.76   21  pacific
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.64   24  33    4.02(  11)    7  15  |   10  20  |    3.59   27 |    3.68   24 |    3.56   27  pacific
  30  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.48   22  36    4.04(   4)    7  12  |   12  20  |    3.44   30 |    3.53   29 |    3.30   31  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". & HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS & both teams in lower case & means "n" for NEUTRAL location & FAVORITE Rating Points Golden Recent UNDERDOG TOTAL & ================================================================================================ boston bruins 0.44 0.46 0.42 0.54 LOS ANGELES KINGS 5.14 CAROLINA HURRICANES 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.65 dallas stars 4.95 columbus blue jacket 0.07 0.24 0.28 -0.65 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 6.29 nashville predators 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.42 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 5.52 NEW YORK ISLANDERS 0.85 0.92 0.79 1.03 edmonton oilers 5.68 PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 0.56 0.66 0.71 0.32 detroit red wings 5.99 PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 0.29 0.20 0.13 0.72 calgary flames 6.30 SAN JOSE SHARKS 0.95 1.11 1.01 0.67 vancouver canucks 6.29 st. louis blues 0.14 -0.06 0.04 1.08 COLORADO AVALANCHE 5.97 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 1.19 1.16 1.32 1.02 montreal canadiens 6.60 toronto maple leafs 0.42 0.70 0.62 -0.14 ARIZONA COYOTES 5.99 WINNIPEG JETS 1.12 1.45 1.52 0.15 ottawa senators 6.97 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 PCT%=confidence FAVORITE SPREAD ODDS PCT% UNDERDOG 1 Boston Bruins 1.00 207 67% @ Los Angeles Kings 2 Calgary Flames 0.17 113 53% @ Pittsburgh Penguins 3 @ Carolina Hurricanes 0.25 121 55% Dallas Stars 4 Columbus Blue Jacket 0.43 137 58% @ Chicago Blackhawks 5 Nashville Predators 0.42 137 58% @ Vegas Golden Knights 6 @ New York Islanders 1.20 237 70% Edmonton Oilers 7 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.26 122 55% Detroit Red Wings 8 @ San Jose Sharks 1.23 242 71% Vancouver Canucks 9 St. Louis Blues 0.28 123 55% @ Colorado Avalanche 10 @ Tampa Bay Lightning 1.60 310 76% Montreal Canadiens 11 Toronto Maple Leafs 0.81 182 64% @ Arizona Coyotes 12 @ Winnipeg Jets 1.46 282 74% Ottawa Senators endfile

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