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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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All Contents Copyright © 2016 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NHL 2016-2017 ratings through results of 2016 DECEMBER 5 MONDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

just click on "New_Feature" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
   1  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.52   17   8    3.92(  27)    4   3  |    8   4  |    4.44    2 |    4.52    1 |    4.54    1
   2  New York Rangers        =   4.49   17   9    3.92(  26)    7   3  |   10   3  |    4.55    1 |    4.49    2 |    4.52    2
   3  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.43   16  10    4.02(  15)    4   3  |    8   7  |    4.33    5 |    4.44    3 |    4.40    5
   4  San Jose Sharks         =   4.40   15  10    4.04(   8)    6   4  |   10   5  |    4.35    4 |    4.40    4 |    4.41    4
   5  Washington Capitals     =   4.31   14  10    3.96(  22)    3   6  |    3   7  |    4.28    8 |    4.32    5 |    4.22    7
   6  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.31   15   9    4.03(  14)    8   5  |   10   6  |    4.39    3 |    4.29    7 |    4.45    3
   7  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.29   14  13    4.07(   4)    1   8  |    3   9  |    4.31    6 |    4.31    6 |    4.16    9
   8  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.27   16  11    3.96(  21)    2   4  |    6   8  |    4.21    9 |    4.27    8 |    4.21    8
   9  Boston Bruins           =   4.18   15  11    4.04(   9)    4   5  |    4   8  |    4.15   11 |    4.18   10 |    4.23    6
  10  St. Louis Blues         =   4.18   14  11    3.99(  19)    6   4  |   10   6  |    4.08   13 |    4.18    9 |    4.16   10
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
  11  Minnesota Wild          =   4.16   12  12    3.95(  23)    4   2  |    6   3  |    4.31    7 |    4.16   11 |    4.15   11
  12  Nashville Predators     =   4.07   11  13    3.95(  25)    4   3  |    5   6  |    4.17   10 |    4.07   12 |    4.02   15
  13  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.05   13  12    4.01(  16)    3   6  |    6   9  |    4.02   15 |    4.05   13 |    4.04   13
  14  Philadelphia Flyers     =   4.05   14  13    3.97(  20)    2   7  |    5   8  |    4.02   16 |    4.04   14 |    4.11   12
  15  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.02   12  14    4.03(  12)    2   6  |    6   9  |    4.08   14 |    4.02   15 |    3.98   17
  16  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.01   14  13    3.91(  28)    3   3  |    4   6  |    4.11   12 |    4.01   17 |    4.03   14
  17  Florida Panthers        =   4.01   12  14    4.10(   2)    4   8  |    4   9  |    4.01   17 |    4.01   16 |    3.95   18
  18  Ottawa Senators         =   3.93   15  11    3.88(  30)    4   2  |    7   6  |    3.81   23 |    3.92   18 |    4.01   16
  19  New Jersey Devils       =   3.88   11  13    4.08(   3)    1   7  |    4   9  |    3.91   18 |    3.88   19 |    3.88   20
  20  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.85   12  14    4.04(  11)    3   7  |    5   9  |    3.86   19 |    3.85   20 |    3.86   21
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
  21  Calgary Flames          =   3.83   13  15    4.03(  13)    5   5  |    8  10  |    3.77   24 |    3.82   21 |    3.89   19
  22  New York Islanders      =   3.80    9  15    4.05(   6)    2  10  |    5  13  |    3.86   20 |    3.81   22 |    3.76   24
  23  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.79   13  15    3.99(  18)    3   5  |    5  11  |    3.82   22 |    3.79   23 |    3.84   22
  24  Dallas Stars            =   3.77   10  16    4.01(  17)    1   6  |    5  10  |    3.74   26 |    3.78   24 |    3.65   26
  25  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.74   10  15    4.14(   1)    5   4  |    6   8  |    3.82   21 |    3.73   25 |    3.79   23
  26  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.69   10  14    4.04(  10)    2   5  |    6   7  |    3.74   25 |    3.68   26 |    3.76   25
  27  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.64    9  16    4.06(   5)    2   7  |    4   9  |    3.63   27 |    3.64   27 |    3.61   27
  28  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.53    9  14    3.95(  24)    3   5  |    6   8  |    3.46   28 |    3.53   28 |    3.47   29
  29  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.44   11  14    3.90(  29)    2   4  |    3   8  |    3.35   30 |    3.43   29 |    3.52   28
  30  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.37    8  16    4.05(   7)    2   6  |    7   8  |    3.43   29 |    3.37   30 |    3.37   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.13       4.13  (  1)      8       4.13  (  1)
   2  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   4.00       4.01  (  2)      8       4.01  (  2)
   3  CENTRAL (west)          =   3.99       3.97  (  3)      7       3.97  (  3)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.90       3.87  (  4)      7       3.87  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   4.00       4.01  (  2)      8       4.01  (  2)
   1  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.13       4.13  (  1)      8       4.13  (  1)
   3  CENTRAL (west)          =   3.99       3.97  (  3)      7       3.97  (  3)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.90       3.87  (  4)      7       3.87  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   4.00       4.01  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.01  (  2)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
   1  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.52   17   8    3.92(  27)    4   3  |    8   4  |    4.44    2 |    4.52    1 |    4.54    1
   7  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.29   14  13    4.07(   4)    1   8  |    3   9  |    4.31    6 |    4.31    6 |    4.16    9
   9  Boston Bruins           =   4.18   15  11    4.04(   9)    4   5  |    4   8  |    4.15   11 |    4.18   10 |    4.23    6
  17  Florida Panthers        =   4.01   12  14    4.10(   2)    4   8  |    4   9  |    4.01   17 |    4.01   16 |    3.95   18
  18  Ottawa Senators         =   3.93   15  11    3.88(  30)    4   2  |    7   6  |    3.81   23 |    3.92   18 |    4.01   16
  20  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.85   12  14    4.04(  11)    3   7  |    5   9  |    3.86   19 |    3.85   20 |    3.86   21
  26  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.69   10  14    4.04(  10)    2   5  |    6   7  |    3.74   25 |    3.68   26 |    3.76   25
  27  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.64    9  16    4.06(   5)    2   7  |    4   9  |    3.63   27 |    3.64   27 |    3.61   27
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.13       4.13  (  1)   TEAMS=  8       4.13  (  1)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
   2  New York Rangers        =   4.49   17   9    3.92(  26)    7   3  |   10   3  |    4.55    1 |    4.49    2 |    4.52    2
   3  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.43   16  10    4.02(  15)    4   3  |    8   7  |    4.33    5 |    4.44    3 |    4.40    5
   5  Washington Capitals     =   4.31   14  10    3.96(  22)    3   6  |    3   7  |    4.28    8 |    4.32    5 |    4.22    7
   6  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.31   15   9    4.03(  14)    8   5  |   10   6  |    4.39    3 |    4.29    7 |    4.45    3
  14  Philadelphia Flyers     =   4.05   14  13    3.97(  20)    2   7  |    5   8  |    4.02   16 |    4.04   14 |    4.11   12
  19  New Jersey Devils       =   3.88   11  13    4.08(   3)    1   7  |    4   9  |    3.91   18 |    3.88   19 |    3.88   20
  22  New York Islanders      =   3.80    9  15    4.05(   6)    2  10  |    5  13  |    3.86   20 |    3.81   22 |    3.76   24
  25  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.74   10  15    4.14(   1)    5   4  |    6   8  |    3.82   21 |    3.73   25 |    3.79   23
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  CENTRAL (west)          =   3.99       3.97  (  3)   TEAMS=  7       3.97  (  3)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
   8  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.27   16  11    3.96(  21)    2   4  |    6   8  |    4.21    9 |    4.27    8 |    4.21    8
  10  St. Louis Blues         =   4.18   14  11    3.99(  19)    6   4  |   10   6  |    4.08   13 |    4.18    9 |    4.16   10
  11  Minnesota Wild          =   4.16   12  12    3.95(  23)    4   2  |    6   3  |    4.31    7 |    4.16   11 |    4.15   11
  12  Nashville Predators     =   4.07   11  13    3.95(  25)    4   3  |    5   6  |    4.17   10 |    4.07   12 |    4.02   15
  23  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.79   13  15    3.99(  18)    3   5  |    5  11  |    3.82   22 |    3.79   23 |    3.84   22
  24  Dallas Stars            =   3.77   10  16    4.01(  17)    1   6  |    5  10  |    3.74   26 |    3.78   24 |    3.65   26
  28  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.53    9  14    3.95(  24)    3   5  |    6   8  |    3.46   28 |    3.53   28 |    3.47   29
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.90       3.87  (  4)   TEAMS=  7       3.87  (  4)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.33]                                               [  0.33]       [  0.33]       [  0.33]
   4  San Jose Sharks         =   4.40   15  10    4.04(   8)    6   4  |   10   5  |    4.35    4 |    4.40    4 |    4.41    4
  13  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.05   13  12    4.01(  16)    3   6  |    6   9  |    4.02   15 |    4.05   13 |    4.04   13
  15  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.02   12  14    4.03(  12)    2   6  |    6   9  |    4.08   14 |    4.02   15 |    3.98   17
  16  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.01   14  13    3.91(  28)    3   3  |    4   6  |    4.11   12 |    4.01   17 |    4.03   14
  21  Calgary Flames          =   3.83   13  15    4.03(  13)    5   5  |    8  10  |    3.77   24 |    3.82   21 |    3.89   19
  29  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.44   11  14    3.90(  29)    2   4  |    3   8  |    3.35   30 |    3.43   29 |    3.52   28
  30  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.37    8  16    4.05(   7)    2   6  |    7   8  |    3.43   29 |    3.37   30 |    3.37   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== montreal canadie 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.06 ST. LOUIS BLUES montreal canadie 2.73 - 2.30 0.43 5.03 ST. LOUIS BLUES ~ 0.43 edmonton oilers 0.05 0.15 0.05 0.09 BUFFALO SABRES edmonton oilers 2.35 - 2.08 0.27 4.43 BUFFALO SABRES ~ 0.29 WINNIPEG JETS 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.31 detroit red wing WINNIPEG JETS 2.58 - 2.33 0.25 4.91 detroit red wing ~ 0.25 DALLAS STARS 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.09 calgary flames DALLAS STARS 2.81 - 2.76 0.05 5.58 calgary flames ~ 0.05 new york rangers 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.43 NEW YORK ISLANDE new york rangers 3.46 - 2.59 0.87 6.06 NEW YORK ISLANDE ~ 0.80 PHILADELPHIA FLY 0.37 0.33 0.35 0.48 florida panthers PHILADELPHIA FLY 3.28 - 2.70 0.58 5.98 florida panthers ~ 0.54 NEW JERSEY DEVIL 0.77 0.89 0.78 0.69 vancouver canuck NEW JERSEY DEVIL 3.25 - 1.98 1.27 5.23 vancouver canuck ~ 1.25 NASHVILLE PREDAT 0.86 1.03 0.86 0.88 colorado avalanc NASHVILLE PREDAT 3.22 - 1.73 1.49 4.96 colorado avalanc ~ 1.50 CHICAGO BLACKHAW 1.22 1.10 1.23 1.17 arizona coyotes CHICAGO BLACKHAW 3.19 - 2.02 1.17 5.21 arizona coyotes ~ 1.15 ====================================================================================================================================

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