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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2018-2019 ratings through results of 2018 DECEMBER 18 TUESDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
   1  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.75   26   9    3.87(  31)    5   3  |    9   4  |    4.73    1 |    4.78    1 |    4.91    1  ATLANTIC
   2  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.52   22  12    4.05(   7)    7   4  |   11   7  |    4.63    2 |    4.56    2 |    4.20    7  ATLANTIC
   3  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.43   22  12    3.89(  30)    3   4  |    5   8  |    4.48    4 |    4.51    4 |    4.22    6  central
   4  Washington Capitals     =   4.40   20  12    3.94(  27)    4   3  |    9   7  |    4.37    6 |    4.37    6 |    4.89    2  METROPOLITAN
   5  Calgary Flames          =   4.38   22  13    4.04(   9)    8   4  |   12   8  |    4.42    5 |    4.40    5 |    4.18    8  pacific
   6  San Jose Sharks         =   4.35   19  16    3.97(  21)    3   3  |    7   8  |    4.32    7 |    4.25    7 |    4.62    3  pacific
   7  Nashville Predators     =   4.32   22  13    3.96(  22)    7   5  |   12   6  |    4.49    3 |    4.55    3 |    3.71   26  central
   8  Boston Bruins           =   4.24   18  16    4.00(  14)    3   6  |    7   9  |    4.25    9 |    4.25    8 |    4.18    9  ATLANTIC
   9  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.18   19  17    4.05(   8)    3   6  |    7   9  |    4.22   10 |    4.20    9 |    3.95   17  pacific
  10  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.18   18  16    4.09(   4)    2   7  |    7  12  |    4.26    8 |    4.19   10 |    3.72   25  central
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
  11  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.16   15  18    3.97(  18)    7   5  |   12   7  |    4.19   11 |    4.12   11 |    3.97   16  METROPOLITAN
  12  Dallas Stars            =   4.12   17  17    4.10(   3)    8   7  |   10  12  |    4.12   12 |    4.11   12 |    4.08   12  central
  13  Minnesota Wild          =   4.08   17  16    3.97(  19)    3   9  |    5  11  |    4.12   13 |    4.10   13 |    3.84   20  central
  14  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.08   18  15    3.93(  28)    5   4  |    8   6  |    4.08   14 |    4.10   14 |    4.07   13  METROPOLITAN
  15  New York Islanders      =   3.95   17  16    4.00(  13)    2   8  |    5  11  |    3.90   19 |    3.88   18 |    4.28    4  METROPOLITAN
  16  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.94   18  17    4.08(   5)    8   8  |   10  11  |    3.95   15 |    3.97   16 |    3.82   22  pacific
  17  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.93   19  17    3.98(  17)    5   6  |   11   9  |    3.90   17 |    4.00   15 |    4.12   10  pacific
  18  Florida Panthers        =   3.92   13  19    3.99(  15)    4   5  |    7   8  |    3.90   18 |    3.86   20 |    4.07   14  ATLANTIC
  19  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.90   20  15    4.02(  11)    5   9  |    7  10  |    3.91   16 |    3.96   17 |    3.80   23  ATLANTIC
  20  St. Louis Blues         =   3.88   13  19    3.97(  20)    9   6  |   10  10  |    3.84   20 |    3.86   19 |    4.10   11  central
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
  21  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.79   16  21    4.10(   2)    7   8  |   11  13  |    3.70   26 |    3.70   26 |    4.22    5  pacific
  22  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.76   14  18    3.96(  24)    2   8  |    4  12  |    3.74   23 |    3.74   24 |    3.85   18  METROPOLITAN
  23  New Jersey Devils       =   3.75   11  21    4.15(   1)    3  12  |    7  14  |    3.78   21 |    3.77   22 |    3.49   30  METROPOLITAN
  24  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.74   13  19    4.01(  12)    1  10  |    2  14  |    3.75   22 |    3.83   21 |    3.70   27  METROPOLITAN
  25  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.70   17  17    3.93(  29)    5   6  |    8   9  |    3.71   25 |    3.75   23 |    3.65   28  ATLANTIC
  26  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.69   14  19    4.04(  10)    4   8  |    6  12  |    3.72   24 |    3.73   25 |    3.43   31  pacific
  27  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.69   12  23    3.95(  25)    2   8  |    4  15  |    3.62   27 |    3.61   27 |    3.98   15  pacific
  28  New York Rangers        =   3.62   15  18    3.94(  26)    3   7  |    6   9  |    3.56   28 |    3.57   28 |    3.83   21  METROPOLITAN
  29  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.55   11  25    4.07(   6)    1  13  |    4  16  |    3.50   29 |    3.41   31 |    3.73   24  central
  30  Ottawa Senators         =   3.52   15  20    3.96(  23)    4   8  |    7  10  |    3.40   31 |    3.42   30 |    3.85   19  ATLANTIC
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
  31  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.48   14  21    3.98(  16)    3   8  |    5  13  |    3.47   30 |    3.45   29 |    3.51   29  ATLANTIC
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  central                 =   4.10       4.08  (  1)      7       4.08  (  1)
   2  pacific                 =   3.98       3.99  (  3)      8       3.99  (  3)
   3  ATLANTIC                =   3.97       4.00  (  2)      8       4.00  (  2)
   4  METROPOLITAN            =   3.91       3.93  (  4)      8       3.93  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC                =   3.97       4.00  (  2)      8       4.00  (  2)
   4  METROPOLITAN            =   3.91       3.93  (  4)      8       3.93  (  4)
   1  central                 =   4.10       4.08  (  1)      7       4.08  (  1)
   2  pacific                 =   3.98       3.99  (  3)      8       3.99  (  3)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC                =   3.97       4.00  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.00  (  2)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
   1  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.75   26   9    3.87(  31)    5   3  |    9   4  |    4.73    1 |    4.78    1 |    4.91    1  ATLANTIC
   2  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.52   22  12    4.05(   7)    7   4  |   11   7  |    4.63    2 |    4.56    2 |    4.20    7  ATLANTIC
   8  Boston Bruins           =   4.24   18  16    4.00(  14)    3   6  |    7   9  |    4.25    9 |    4.25    8 |    4.18    9  ATLANTIC
  18  Florida Panthers        =   3.92   13  19    3.99(  15)    4   5  |    7   8  |    3.90   18 |    3.86   20 |    4.07   14  ATLANTIC
  19  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.90   20  15    4.02(  11)    5   9  |    7  10  |    3.91   16 |    3.96   17 |    3.80   23  ATLANTIC
  25  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.70   17  17    3.93(  29)    5   6  |    8   9  |    3.71   25 |    3.75   23 |    3.65   28  ATLANTIC
  30  Ottawa Senators         =   3.52   15  20    3.96(  23)    4   8  |    7  10  |    3.40   31 |    3.42   30 |    3.85   19  ATLANTIC
  31  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.48   14  21    3.98(  16)    3   8  |    5  13  |    3.47   30 |    3.45   29 |    3.51   29  ATLANTIC
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  METROPOLITAN            =   3.91       3.93  (  4)   TEAMS=  8       3.93  (  4)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
   4  Washington Capitals     =   4.40   20  12    3.94(  27)    4   3  |    9   7  |    4.37    6 |    4.37    6 |    4.89    2  METROPOLITAN
  11  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.16   15  18    3.97(  18)    7   5  |   12   7  |    4.19   11 |    4.12   11 |    3.97   16  METROPOLITAN
  14  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.08   18  15    3.93(  28)    5   4  |    8   6  |    4.08   14 |    4.10   14 |    4.07   13  METROPOLITAN
  15  New York Islanders      =   3.95   17  16    4.00(  13)    2   8  |    5  11  |    3.90   19 |    3.88   18 |    4.28    4  METROPOLITAN
  22  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.76   14  18    3.96(  24)    2   8  |    4  12  |    3.74   23 |    3.74   24 |    3.85   18  METROPOLITAN
  23  New Jersey Devils       =   3.75   11  21    4.15(   1)    3  12  |    7  14  |    3.78   21 |    3.77   22 |    3.49   30  METROPOLITAN
  24  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.74   13  19    4.01(  12)    1  10  |    2  14  |    3.75   22 |    3.83   21 |    3.70   27  METROPOLITAN
  28  New York Rangers        =   3.62   15  18    3.94(  26)    3   7  |    6   9  |    3.56   28 |    3.57   28 |    3.83   21  METROPOLITAN
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  central                 =   4.10       4.08  (  1)   TEAMS=  7       4.08  (  1)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
   3  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.43   22  12    3.89(  30)    3   4  |    5   8  |    4.48    4 |    4.51    4 |    4.22    6  central
   7  Nashville Predators     =   4.32   22  13    3.96(  22)    7   5  |   12   6  |    4.49    3 |    4.55    3 |    3.71   26  central
  10  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.18   18  16    4.09(   4)    2   7  |    7  12  |    4.26    8 |    4.19   10 |    3.72   25  central
  12  Dallas Stars            =   4.12   17  17    4.10(   3)    8   7  |   10  12  |    4.12   12 |    4.11   12 |    4.08   12  central
  13  Minnesota Wild          =   4.08   17  16    3.97(  19)    3   9  |    5  11  |    4.12   13 |    4.10   13 |    3.84   20  central
  20  St. Louis Blues         =   3.88   13  19    3.97(  20)    9   6  |   10  10  |    3.84   20 |    3.86   19 |    4.10   11  central
  29  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.55   11  25    4.07(   6)    1  13  |    4  16  |    3.50   29 |    3.41   31 |    3.73   24  central
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  pacific                 =   3.98       3.99  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.99  (  3)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.37]                                               [  0.37]       [  0.37]       [  0.37]
   5  Calgary Flames          =   4.38   22  13    4.04(   9)    8   4  |   12   8  |    4.42    5 |    4.40    5 |    4.18    8  pacific
   6  San Jose Sharks         =   4.35   19  16    3.97(  21)    3   3  |    7   8  |    4.32    7 |    4.25    7 |    4.62    3  pacific
   9  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.18   19  17    4.05(   8)    3   6  |    7   9  |    4.22   10 |    4.20    9 |    3.95   17  pacific
  16  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.94   18  17    4.08(   5)    8   8  |   10  11  |    3.95   15 |    3.97   16 |    3.82   22  pacific
  17  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.93   19  17    3.98(  17)    5   6  |   11   9  |    3.90   17 |    4.00   15 |    4.12   10  pacific
  21  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.79   16  21    4.10(   2)    7   8  |   11  13  |    3.70   26 |    3.70   26 |    4.22    5  pacific
  26  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.69   14  19    4.04(  10)    4   8  |    6  12  |    3.72   24 |    3.73   25 |    3.43   31  pacific
  27  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.69   12  23    3.95(  25)    2   8  |    4  15  |    3.62   27 |    3.61   27 |    3.98   15  pacific
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". & HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS & both teams in lower case & means "n" for NEUTRAL location & FAVORITE Rating Points Golden Recent UNDERDOG TOTAL & ================================================================================================ COLORADO AVALANCHE 0.85 0.92 0.81 0.45 montreal canadiens 6.46 WASHINGTON CAPITALS 0.62 0.55 0.62 1.29 pittsburgh penguins 6.66 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 PCT%=confidence FAVORITE SPREAD ODDS PCT% UNDERDOG 1 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.34 128 56% Montreal Canadiens 2 @ Washington Capitals 0.76 172 63% Pittsburgh Penguins endfile

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