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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2016-2017 ratings through results of 2017 FEBRUARY 27 MONDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

just click on "New_Feature" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
   1  Washington Capitals     =   5.07   41  20    3.99(  19)   10   9  |   18  15  |    5.09    1 |    5.03    1 |    5.06    1
   2  Minnesota Wild          =   4.87   40  20    3.89(  30)   12   3  |   23   8  |    4.86    2 |    4.88    2 |    4.90    2
   3  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.84   39  21    4.02(  12)   14   8  |   21  13  |    4.85    3 |    4.84    3 |    4.79    3
   4  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.69   38  22    4.02(  10)   12   9  |   20  14  |    4.69    4 |    4.70    4 |    4.66    4
   5  New York Rangers        =   4.65   40  22    3.97(  24)   11   9  |   19  14  |    4.65    5 |    4.69    5 |    4.62    5
   6  San Jose Sharks         =   4.39   36  25    3.95(  27)    9   8  |   16  13  |    4.38    6 |    4.42    7 |    4.38    7
   7  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.38   39  23    3.91(  29)    7   9  |   16  13  |    4.32    7 |    4.42    6 |    4.55    6
   8  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.24   33  30    4.02(  11)    6  12  |   11  20  |    4.25    8 |    4.22    8 |    4.22    8
   9  Boston Bruins           =   4.17   32  30    4.03(   6)    7  13  |    8  23  |    4.17   10 |    4.16   10 |    4.20    9
  10  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.16   34  29    4.01(  13)    6  14  |   13  21  |    4.19    9 |    4.19    9 |    3.97   16
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
  11  Ottawa Senators         =   4.08   33  28    4.00(  16)   11   7  |   18  12  |    4.05   14 |    4.12   11 |    4.13   11
  12  Nashville Predators     =   4.07   31  31    3.92(  28)   10  11  |   16  14  |    4.07   12 |    4.04   14 |    4.12   13
  13  New York Islanders      =   4.07   29  32    4.05(   5)   12  13  |   17  16  |    4.06   13 |    4.05   13 |    4.13   10
  14  St. Louis Blues         =   4.06   31  30    4.06(   4)   12  13  |   17  18  |    4.04   15 |    4.07   12 |    4.12   12
  15  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.04   28  33    3.98(  21)    8  13  |   11  21  |    4.10   11 |    3.98   16 |    3.93   17
  16  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.01   32  31    3.96(  25)    7  14  |   10  19  |    4.02   16 |    4.02   15 |    3.98   15
  17  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   3.96   28  33    4.00(  17)    4  15  |   12  21  |    3.98   17 |    3.93   17 |    3.90   18
  18  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.93   30  32    4.00(  15)    8  14  |   16  19  |    3.95   18 |    3.92   18 |    3.87   19
  19  Calgary Flames          =   3.90   33  30    3.97(  23)    9  12  |   15  18  |    3.85   19 |    3.92   19 |    4.05   14
  20  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.75   28  35    3.98(  20)    5  18  |   11  22  |    3.77   20 |    3.72   21 |    3.74   21
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
  21  Florida Panthers        =   3.73   28  33    3.99(  18)    5  14  |   14  20  |    3.72   22 |    3.73   20 |    3.76   20
  22  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.72   25  33    4.10(   1)    9  15  |   15  20  |    3.73   21 |    3.72   22 |    3.69   22
  23  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.61   26  36    4.01(  14)    8  13  |   16  19  |    3.62   23 |    3.60   24 |    3.60   23
  24  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.58   24  36    4.07(   3)    7  15  |   15  20  |    3.59   24 |    3.56   25 |    3.54   25
  25  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.56   28  33    4.02(   8)    8  13  |   13  21  |    3.53   25 |    3.61   23 |    3.57   24
  26  New Jersey Devils       =   3.53   25  37    4.07(   2)    5  18  |    9  27  |    3.53   26 |    3.53   26 |    3.51   26
  27  Dallas Stars            =   3.47   24  38    3.98(  22)    3  16  |    9  25  |    3.49   27 |    3.44   28 |    3.42   28
  28  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.44   26  35    3.95(  26)    4  13  |    8  22  |    3.41   28 |    3.46   27 |    3.48   27
  29  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.26   22  39    4.02(   9)    6  18  |   11  24  |    3.26   29 |    3.24   29 |    3.33   29
  30  Colorado Avalanche      =   2.79   17  43    4.03(   7)    7  13  |    9  24  |    2.78   30 |    2.80   30 |    2.78   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.27       4.26  (  1)      8       4.27  (  1)
   2  CENTRAL (west)          =   3.94       3.91  (  3)      7       3.92  (  3)
   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.94       3.92  (  2)      8       3.92  (  2)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.90       3.88  (  4)      7       3.88  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.94       3.92  (  2)      8       3.92  (  2)
   1  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.27       4.26  (  1)      8       4.27  (  1)
   2  CENTRAL (west)          =   3.94       3.91  (  3)      7       3.92  (  3)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.90       3.88  (  4)      7       3.88  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.94       3.92  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       3.92  (  2)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
   9  Boston Bruins           =   4.17   32  30    4.03(   6)    7  13  |    8  23  |    4.17   10 |    4.16   10 |    4.20    9
  10  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.16   34  29    4.01(  13)    6  14  |   13  21  |    4.19    9 |    4.19    9 |    3.97   16
  11  Ottawa Senators         =   4.08   33  28    4.00(  16)   11   7  |   18  12  |    4.05   14 |    4.12   11 |    4.13   11
  15  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.04   28  33    3.98(  21)    8  13  |   11  21  |    4.10   11 |    3.98   16 |    3.93   17
  17  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   3.96   28  33    4.00(  17)    4  15  |   12  21  |    3.98   17 |    3.93   17 |    3.90   18
  21  Florida Panthers        =   3.73   28  33    3.99(  18)    5  14  |   14  20  |    3.72   22 |    3.73   20 |    3.76   20
  23  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.61   26  36    4.01(  14)    8  13  |   16  19  |    3.62   23 |    3.60   24 |    3.60   23
  24  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.58   24  36    4.07(   3)    7  15  |   15  20  |    3.59   24 |    3.56   25 |    3.54   25
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.27       4.26  (  1)   TEAMS=  8       4.27  (  1)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
   1  Washington Capitals     =   5.07   41  20    3.99(  19)   10   9  |   18  15  |    5.09    1 |    5.03    1 |    5.06    1
   3  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.84   39  21    4.02(  12)   14   8  |   21  13  |    4.85    3 |    4.84    3 |    4.79    3
   4  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.69   38  22    4.02(  10)   12   9  |   20  14  |    4.69    4 |    4.70    4 |    4.66    4
   5  New York Rangers        =   4.65   40  22    3.97(  24)   11   9  |   19  14  |    4.65    5 |    4.69    5 |    4.62    5
  13  New York Islanders      =   4.07   29  32    4.05(   5)   12  13  |   17  16  |    4.06   13 |    4.05   13 |    4.13   10
  22  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.72   25  33    4.10(   1)    9  15  |   15  20  |    3.73   21 |    3.72   22 |    3.69   22
  25  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.56   28  33    4.02(   8)    8  13  |   13  21  |    3.53   25 |    3.61   23 |    3.57   24
  26  New Jersey Devils       =   3.53   25  37    4.07(   2)    5  18  |    9  27  |    3.53   26 |    3.53   26 |    3.51   26
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  CENTRAL (west)          =   3.94       3.91  (  3)   TEAMS=  7       3.92  (  3)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
   2  Minnesota Wild          =   4.87   40  20    3.89(  30)   12   3  |   23   8  |    4.86    2 |    4.88    2 |    4.90    2
   7  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.38   39  23    3.91(  29)    7   9  |   16  13  |    4.32    7 |    4.42    6 |    4.55    6
  12  Nashville Predators     =   4.07   31  31    3.92(  28)   10  11  |   16  14  |    4.07   12 |    4.04   14 |    4.12   13
  14  St. Louis Blues         =   4.06   31  30    4.06(   4)   12  13  |   17  18  |    4.04   15 |    4.07   12 |    4.12   12
  20  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.75   28  35    3.98(  20)    5  18  |   11  22  |    3.77   20 |    3.72   21 |    3.74   21
  27  Dallas Stars            =   3.47   24  38    3.98(  22)    3  16  |    9  25  |    3.49   27 |    3.44   28 |    3.42   28
  30  Colorado Avalanche      =   2.79   17  43    4.03(   7)    7  13  |    9  24  |    2.78   30 |    2.80   30 |    2.78   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.90       3.88  (  4)   TEAMS=  7       3.88  (  4)
NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday                                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.28]                                               [  0.28]       [  0.28]       [  0.28]
   6  San Jose Sharks         =   4.39   36  25    3.95(  27)    9   8  |   16  13  |    4.38    6 |    4.42    7 |    4.38    7
   8  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.24   33  30    4.02(  11)    6  12  |   11  20  |    4.25    8 |    4.22    8 |    4.22    8
  16  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.01   32  31    3.96(  25)    7  14  |   10  19  |    4.02   16 |    4.02   15 |    3.98   15
  18  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.93   30  32    4.00(  15)    8  14  |   16  19  |    3.95   18 |    3.92   18 |    3.87   19
  19  Calgary Flames          =   3.90   33  30    3.97(  23)    9  12  |   15  18  |    3.85   19 |    3.92   19 |    4.05   14
  28  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.44   26  35    3.95(  26)    4  13  |    8  22  |    3.41   28 |    3.46   27 |    3.48   27
  29  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.26   22  39    4.02(   9)    6  18  |   11  24  |    3.26   29 |    3.24   29 |    3.33   29
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== ST. LOUIS BLUES 0.10 0.07 0.13 0.18 edmonton oilers ST. LOUIS BLUES 2.66 - 2.56 0.10 5.23 edmonton oilers ~ 0.10 washington capit 0.13 0.16 0.05 0.15 NEW YORK RANGERS washington capit 2.74 - 2.57 0.18 5.31 NEW YORK RANGERS ~ 0.17 VANCOUVER CANUCK 0.14 0.10 0.19 0.23 detroit red wing VANCOUVER CANUCK 2.39 - 2.30 0.09 4.68 detroit red wing ~ 0.10 nashville predat 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.24 BUFFALO SABRES nashville predat 2.68 - 2.48 0.20 5.17 BUFFALO SABRES ~ 0.20 CALGARY FLAMES 0.25 0.18 0.28 0.46 los angeles king CALGARY FLAMES 2.33 - 2.18 0.15 4.51 los angeles king ~ 0.16 FLORIDA PANTHERS 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.36 carolina hurrica FLORIDA PANTHERS 2.61 - 2.33 0.28 4.93 carolina hurrica ~ 0.28 columbus blue ja 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.54 MONTREAL CANADIE columbus blue ja 2.71 - 2.32 0.39 5.03 MONTREAL CANADIE ~ 0.39 SAN JOSE SHARKS 0.63 0.56 0.73 0.73 toronto maple le SAN JOSE SHARKS 2.97 - 2.41 0.56 5.38 toronto maple le ~ 0.55 minnesota wild 0.83 0.81 0.87 0.88 WINNIPEG JETS minnesota wild 3.37 - 2.53 0.84 5.90 WINNIPEG JETS ~ 0.80 pittsburgh pengu 0.94 0.92 0.97 0.95 DALLAS STARS pittsburgh pengu 3.71 - 2.70 1.01 6.41 DALLAS STARS ~ 0.93 PHILADELPHIA FLY 1.05 1.03 1.09 1.07 colorado avalanc PHILADELPHIA FLY 2.99 - 1.98 1.01 4.97 colorado avalanc ~ 1.02 BOSTON BRUINS 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.15 arizona coyotes BOSTON BRUINS 3.21 - 2.03 1.18 5.24 arizona coyotes ~ 1.18 ==================================================================================================================================== COMBO is the combining of the ELO and the BLUE. ELO and BLUE are set to be on the same scale and so are directly comparable and of course the COMBO is set to that same scale. ELO uses only who the winner and loser was of each game and of course the game location. So the difference in ELO between winning by 1 and losing by 1 is very large. BLUE cares only about the score and game location and so in BLUE, the difference between winning by 1 and losing by 1 is simply only 2 points which would be the same difference as winning by 20 as compared to winning by 18 ... very small. BLUE is an acronym which stands for "BestLinearUnbiasedEstimator" also known as "pure-least-squares." The ELO and the BLUE and thus the COMBO are all "unbiased" in that they consider only results from the season in question. Starting ratings have no bearing at all. Predictions for these ratings are found below at the bottom of the file. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 1 Washington Capitals = 4.96 41 20 3.99( 18) 10 10 | 19 13 4.85( 3) 5.13( 1) 2 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.89 39 21 4.01( 11) 14 7 | 22 13 4.87( 2) 4.92( 2) 3 Minnesota Wild = 4.89 40 20 3.88( 30) 11 3 | 20 11 4.88( 1) 4.89( 3) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.73 38 22 4.01( 12) 11 9 | 18 15 4.73( 5) 4.74( 4) 5 New York Rangers = 4.72 40 22 3.97( 24) 10 10 | 18 13 4.80( 4) 4.65( 5) 6 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.46 39 23 3.90( 29) 6 10 | 15 14 4.58( 6) 4.36( 6) 7 San Jose Sharks = 4.39 36 25 3.96( 26) 10 7 | 18 17 4.43( 7) 4.36( 7) 8 Edmonton Oilers = 4.22 33 30 4.02( 9) 5 14 | 16 16 4.19( 10) 4.25( 8) 9 Montreal Canadiens = 4.21 34 29 4.01( 14) 4 14 | 11 21 4.20( 9) 4.22( 9) 10 Boston Bruins = 4.14 32 30 4.03( 6) 7 14 | 10 20 4.13( 11) 4.16( 10) NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 11 Ottawa Senators = 4.10 33 28 3.99( 17) 10 7 | 16 12 4.22( 8) 3.99( 15) 12 St. Louis Blues = 4.05 31 30 4.07( 4) 12 13 | 16 17 4.10( 12) 3.99( 16) 13 Nashville Predators = 3.99 31 31 3.93( 28) 11 11 | 17 16 3.90( 17) 4.08( 12) 14 Anaheim Ducks = 3.99 32 31 3.97( 25) 6 15 | 12 21 3.99( 14) 3.98( 17) 15 Los Angeles Kings = 3.97 30 32 4.00( 15) 9 13 | 14 19 3.96( 15) 3.97( 18) 16 New York Islanders = 3.96 29 32 4.05( 5) 10 15 | 17 16 3.90( 16) 4.02( 13) 17 Calgary Flames = 3.95 33 30 3.98( 22) 10 12 | 13 17 4.06( 13) 3.84( 19) 18 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.95 28 33 3.98( 20) 6 16 | 11 23 3.80( 21) 4.09( 11) 19 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.91 28 33 4.00( 16) 6 13 | 14 19 3.83( 18) 4.00( 14) 20 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.78 25 33 4.10( 1) 8 16 | 15 21 3.82( 19) 3.72( 21) NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 21 Florida Panthers = 3.72 28 33 3.99( 19) 7 12 | 13 20 3.72( 22) 3.72( 22) 22 Winnipeg Jets = 3.71 28 35 3.98( 21) 6 16 | 11 22 3.68( 23) 3.74( 20) 23 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.69 28 33 4.02( 10) 8 13 | 13 21 3.82( 20) 3.54( 25) 24 Buffalo Sabres = 3.58 26 36 4.01( 13) 12 10 | 16 18 3.54( 26) 3.62( 23) 25 Detroit Red Wings = 3.56 24 36 4.07( 3) 8 13 | 14 20 3.50( 27) 3.61( 24) 26 New Jersey Devils = 3.54 25 37 4.07( 2) 4 20 | 8 28 3.56( 25) 3.51( 27) 27 Vancouver Canucks = 3.50 26 35 3.95( 27) 4 14 | 10 22 3.59( 24) 3.41( 28) 28 Dallas Stars = 3.47 24 38 3.97( 23) 3 16 | 9 24 3.41( 28) 3.52( 26) 29 Arizona Coyotes = 3.29 22 39 4.03( 8) 6 18 | 10 29 3.35( 29) 3.23( 29) 30 Colorado Avalanche = 2.68 17 43 4.03( 7) 6 12 | 9 22 2.58( 30) 2.74( 30) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ DIVISION WIN50% ARITH.MEAN TEAMS 1 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 4.29 4.28 8 2 PACIFIC (west) = 3.90 3.90 7 3 CENTRAL (west) = 3.90 3.89 7 4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 3.90 3.90 8 DIVISION WIN50% ARITH.MEAN TEAMS 4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 3.90 3.90 8 1 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 4.29 4.28 8 3 CENTRAL (west) = 3.90 3.89 7 2 PACIFIC (west) = 3.90 3.90 7 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 3.90 3.90 NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 9 Montreal Canadiens = 4.21 34 29 4.01( 14) 4 14 | 11 21 4.20( 9) 4.22( 9) 10 Boston Bruins = 4.14 32 30 4.03( 6) 7 14 | 10 20 4.13( 11) 4.16( 10) 11 Ottawa Senators = 4.10 33 28 3.99( 17) 10 7 | 16 12 4.22( 8) 3.99( 15) 18 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.95 28 33 3.98( 20) 6 16 | 11 23 3.80( 21) 4.09( 11) 19 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.91 28 33 4.00( 16) 6 13 | 14 19 3.83( 18) 4.00( 14) 21 Florida Panthers = 3.72 28 33 3.99( 19) 7 12 | 13 20 3.72( 22) 3.72( 22) 24 Buffalo Sabres = 3.58 26 36 4.01( 13) 12 10 | 16 18 3.54( 26) 3.62( 23) 25 Detroit Red Wings = 3.56 24 36 4.07( 3) 8 13 | 14 20 3.50( 27) 3.61( 24) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 4.29 4.28 NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 1 Washington Capitals = 4.96 41 20 3.99( 18) 10 10 | 19 13 4.85( 3) 5.13( 1) 2 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.89 39 21 4.01( 11) 14 7 | 22 13 4.87( 2) 4.92( 2) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.73 38 22 4.01( 12) 11 9 | 18 15 4.73( 5) 4.74( 4) 5 New York Rangers = 4.72 40 22 3.97( 24) 10 10 | 18 13 4.80( 4) 4.65( 5) 16 New York Islanders = 3.96 29 32 4.05( 5) 10 15 | 17 16 3.90( 16) 4.02( 13) 20 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.78 25 33 4.10( 1) 8 16 | 15 21 3.82( 19) 3.72( 21) 23 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.69 28 33 4.02( 10) 8 13 | 13 21 3.82( 20) 3.54( 25) 26 New Jersey Devils = 3.54 25 37 4.07( 2) 4 20 | 8 28 3.56( 25) 3.51( 27) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 CENTRAL (west) = 3.90 3.89 NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 3 Minnesota Wild = 4.89 40 20 3.88( 30) 11 3 | 20 11 4.88( 1) 4.89( 3) 6 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.46 39 23 3.90( 29) 6 10 | 15 14 4.58( 6) 4.36( 6) 12 St. Louis Blues = 4.05 31 30 4.07( 4) 12 13 | 16 17 4.10( 12) 3.99( 16) 13 Nashville Predators = 3.99 31 31 3.93( 28) 11 11 | 17 16 3.90( 17) 4.08( 12) 22 Winnipeg Jets = 3.71 28 35 3.98( 21) 6 16 | 11 22 3.68( 23) 3.74( 20) 28 Dallas Stars = 3.47 24 38 3.97( 23) 3 16 | 9 24 3.41( 28) 3.52( 26) 30 Colorado Avalanche = 2.68 17 43 4.03( 7) 6 12 | 9 22 2.58( 30) 2.74( 30) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 PACIFIC (west) = 3.90 3.90 NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2017 February 27 Monday HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 0.30] [ 0.30] [ 0.29] COMBO W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10| VS top 16 ELO BLUE 7 San Jose Sharks = 4.39 36 25 3.96( 26) 10 7 | 18 17 4.43( 7) 4.36( 7) 8 Edmonton Oilers = 4.22 33 30 4.02( 9) 5 14 | 16 16 4.19( 10) 4.25( 8) 14 Anaheim Ducks = 3.99 32 31 3.97( 25) 6 15 | 12 21 3.99( 14) 3.98( 17) 15 Los Angeles Kings = 3.97 30 32 4.00( 15) 9 13 | 14 19 3.96( 15) 3.97( 18) 17 Calgary Flames = 3.95 33 30 3.98( 22) 10 12 | 13 17 4.06( 13) 3.84( 19) 27 Vancouver Canucks = 3.50 26 35 3.95( 27) 4 14 | 10 22 3.59( 24) 3.41( 28) 29 Arizona Coyotes = 3.29 22 39 4.03( 8) 6 18 | 10 29 3.35( 29) 3.23( 29) ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ end_ratings Combo Elo Blue @ New York Rangers 0.06 0.26 -0.18 Washington Capitals Nashville Predators 0.11 0.06 0.16 @ Buffalo Sabres @ St. Louis Blues 0.13 0.22 0.03 Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers 0.24 0.20 0.28 Carolina Hurricanes @ Vancouver Canucks 0.25 0.39 0.09 Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames 0.29 0.40 0.17 Los Angeles Kings Columbus Blue Jacket 0.38 0.37 0.40 @ Montreal Canadiens @ San Jose Sharks 0.74 0.94 0.56 Toronto Maple Leafs Minnesota Wild 0.88 0.90 0.86 @ Winnipeg Jets Pittsburgh Penguins 0.97 1.01 0.93 @ Dallas Stars @ Boston Bruins 1.15 1.08 1.22 Arizona Coyotes @ Philadelphia Flyers 1.31 1.54 1.09 Colorado Avalanche Combo Elo Blue endpicks

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