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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2015-2016 ratings through results of 2016 MAY 26 THURSDAY - Conference Finals


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

PITTSBURGH_PENGU 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.24 san_jose_sharks PITTSBURGH_PENGU 2.71 - 2.52 0.19 5.23 san_jose_sharks ~ 0.18 SAN_JOSE_SHARKS 0.09 0.12 0.07 0.10 pittsburgh_pengu SAN_JOSE_SHARKS 2.72 - 2.51 0.21 5.23 pittsburgh_pengu ~ 0.21
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
   1  Washington Capitals     =   4.60   62  32    4.02(  12)   12  17  |   31  24  |    4.61    1 |    4.71    1 |    4.44    3
   2  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.55   60  40    4.05(   3)   16  20  |   33  27  |    4.53    2 |    4.51    2 |    4.82    1
   3  San Jose Sharks         =   4.46   58  42    4.00(  26)   22  15  |   34  24  |    4.45    3 |    4.41    3 |    4.75    2
   4  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.36   57  42    4.01(  18)   12  18  |   23  29  |    4.36    4 |    4.33    6 |    4.42    4
   5  St. Louis Blues         =   4.33   59  43    4.06(   2)   27  20  |   35  30  |    4.34    6 |    4.36    5 |    4.24    5
   6  Dallas Stars            =   4.30   57  38    4.02(  14)   19  15  |   35  23  |    4.34    5 |    4.40    4 |    4.05   14
   7  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.28   50  39    4.03(   9)   16  18  |   23  29  |    4.31    7 |    4.30    7 |    4.19    7
   8  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.25   49  40    3.97(  30)   14  12  |   24  23  |    4.29    8 |    4.24   10 |    4.20    6
   9  Florida Panthers        =   4.23   49  39    3.99(  27)   10  13  |   20  26  |    4.27   10 |    4.29    8 |    4.03   15
  10  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.17   49  38    4.00(  23)   16  16  |   26  20  |    4.29    9 |    4.27    9 |    3.79   22
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
  11  New York Rangers        =   4.15   47  40    4.04(   5)   16  16  |   23  25  |    4.17   11 |    4.19   11 |    4.00   16
  12  New York Islanders      =   4.09   50  43    4.04(   6)   18  19  |   27  26  |    4.14   12 |    4.15   12 |    3.87   19
  13  Nashville Predators     =   4.08   48  48    4.06(   1)   18  28  |   25  33  |    4.08   14 |    4.07   14 |    4.08   12
  14  Boston Bruins           =   4.03   42  40    3.99(  29)   11  15  |   18  21  |    4.08   15 |    4.09   13 |    3.77   23
  15  Minnesota Wild          =   4.00   40  48    4.03(   7)   16  22  |   18  32  |    4.12   13 |    3.99   15 |    3.81   20
  16  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.98   43  45    4.05(   4)   12  20  |   23  26  |    3.91   18 |    3.96   16 |    4.18    9
  17  Ottawa Senators         =   3.95   38  44    4.00(  24)   10  17  |   18  26  |    3.91   16 |    3.87   18 |    4.19    8
  18  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.89   38  44    4.00(  25)    9  17  |   18  26  |    3.90   19 |    3.85   19 |    3.96   17
  19  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.87   42  45    4.02(  13)   11  20  |   19  29  |    3.91   17 |    3.90   17 |    3.71   25
  20  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.85   35  47    4.02(  15)   10  21  |   19  30  |    3.82   20 |    3.75   22 |    4.14   11
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
  21  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.79   39  43    4.03(  11)   14  17  |   22  27  |    3.80   21 |    3.84   20 |    3.59   26
  22  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.79   34  48    4.02(  17)   10  16  |   15  31  |    3.72   23 |    3.65   27 |    4.15   10
  23  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.79   35  47    4.00(  22)    6  20  |   14  29  |    3.69   24 |    3.70   23 |    4.07   13
  24  Calgary Flames          =   3.76   35  47    3.99(  28)   11  20  |   17  28  |    3.74   22 |    3.67   26 |    3.95   18
  25  New Jersey Devils       =   3.75   38  44    4.01(  19)    9  17  |   19  26  |    3.66   25 |    3.78   21 |    3.79   21
  26  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.65   35  47    4.01(  20)   12  20  |   17  29  |    3.53   28 |    3.67   25 |    3.73   24
  27  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.64   35  47    4.03(   8)    9  18  |   15  31  |    3.61   26 |    3.68   24 |    3.52   28
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.53   31  51    4.00(  21)    7  24  |   14  31  |    3.56   27 |    3.48   28 |    3.59   27
  29  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.46   31  51    4.02(  16)   10  22  |   16  30  |    3.46   29 |    3.44   29 |    3.50   29
  30  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.44   29  53    4.03(  10)   10  17  |   16  29  |    3.40   30 |    3.44   30 |    3.48   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.10       4.09  (  1)      7       4.09  (  1)
   2  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.05       4.07  (  2)      8       4.07  (  2)
   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.94       3.94  (  3)      8       3.94  (  3)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.87       3.90  (  4)      7       3.90  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.94       3.94  (  3)      8       3.94  (  3)
   2  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.05       4.07  (  2)      8       4.07  (  2)
   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.10       4.09  (  1)      7       4.09  (  1)
   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.87       3.90  (  4)      7       3.90  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.94       3.94  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.94  (  3)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
   4  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.36   57  42    4.01(  18)   12  18  |   23  29  |    4.36    4 |    4.33    6 |    4.42    4
   9  Florida Panthers        =   4.23   49  39    3.99(  27)   10  13  |   20  26  |    4.27   10 |    4.29    8 |    4.03   15
  14  Boston Bruins           =   4.03   42  40    3.99(  29)   11  15  |   18  21  |    4.08   15 |    4.09   13 |    3.77   23
  17  Ottawa Senators         =   3.95   38  44    4.00(  24)   10  17  |   18  26  |    3.91   16 |    3.87   18 |    4.19    8
  18  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.89   38  44    4.00(  25)    9  17  |   18  26  |    3.90   19 |    3.85   19 |    3.96   17
  19  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.87   42  45    4.02(  13)   11  20  |   19  29  |    3.91   17 |    3.90   17 |    3.71   25
  23  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.79   35  47    4.00(  22)    6  20  |   14  29  |    3.69   24 |    3.70   23 |    4.07   13
  30  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.44   29  53    4.03(  10)   10  17  |   16  29  |    3.40   30 |    3.44   30 |    3.48   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   4.05       4.07  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.07  (  2)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
   1  Washington Capitals     =   4.60   62  32    4.02(  12)   12  17  |   31  24  |    4.61    1 |    4.71    1 |    4.44    3
   2  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.55   60  40    4.05(   3)   16  20  |   33  27  |    4.53    2 |    4.51    2 |    4.82    1
  11  New York Rangers        =   4.15   47  40    4.04(   5)   16  16  |   23  25  |    4.17   11 |    4.19   11 |    4.00   16
  12  New York Islanders      =   4.09   50  43    4.04(   6)   18  19  |   27  26  |    4.14   12 |    4.15   12 |    3.87   19
  16  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.98   43  45    4.05(   4)   12  20  |   23  26  |    3.91   18 |    3.96   16 |    4.18    9
  22  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.79   34  48    4.02(  17)   10  16  |   15  31  |    3.72   23 |    3.65   27 |    4.15   10
  25  New Jersey Devils       =   3.75   38  44    4.01(  19)    9  17  |   19  26  |    3.66   25 |    3.78   21 |    3.79   21
  27  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.64   35  47    4.03(   8)    9  18  |   15  31  |    3.61   26 |    3.68   24 |    3.52   28
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.10       4.09  (  1)   TEAMS=  7       4.09  (  1)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
   5  St. Louis Blues         =   4.33   59  43    4.06(   2)   27  20  |   35  30  |    4.34    6 |    4.36    5 |    4.24    5
   6  Dallas Stars            =   4.30   57  38    4.02(  14)   19  15  |   35  23  |    4.34    5 |    4.40    4 |    4.05   14
   7  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.28   50  39    4.03(   9)   16  18  |   23  29  |    4.31    7 |    4.30    7 |    4.19    7
  13  Nashville Predators     =   4.08   48  48    4.06(   1)   18  28  |   25  33  |    4.08   14 |    4.07   14 |    4.08   12
  15  Minnesota Wild          =   4.00   40  48    4.03(   7)   16  22  |   18  32  |    4.12   13 |    3.99   15 |    3.81   20
  20  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.85   35  47    4.02(  15)   10  21  |   19  30  |    3.82   20 |    3.75   22 |    4.14   11
  21  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.79   39  43    4.03(  11)   14  17  |   22  27  |    3.80   21 |    3.84   20 |    3.59   26
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.87       3.90  (  4)   TEAMS=  7       3.90  (  4)
NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.18]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.17]       [  0.17]
   3  San Jose Sharks         =   4.46   58  42    4.00(  26)   22  15  |   34  24  |    4.45    3 |    4.41    3 |    4.75    2
   8  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.25   49  40    3.97(  30)   14  12  |   24  23  |    4.29    8 |    4.24   10 |    4.20    6
  10  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.17   49  38    4.00(  23)   16  16  |   26  20  |    4.29    9 |    4.27    9 |    3.79   22
  24  Calgary Flames          =   3.76   35  47    3.99(  28)   11  20  |   17  28  |    3.74   22 |    3.67   26 |    3.95   18
  26  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.65   35  47    4.01(  20)   12  20  |   17  29  |    3.53   28 |    3.67   25 |    3.73   24
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.53   31  51    4.00(  21)    7  24  |   14  31  |    3.56   27 |    3.48   28 |    3.59   27
  29  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.46   31  51    4.02(  16)   10  22  |   16  30  |    3.46   29 |    3.44   29 |    3.50   29
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.01586 closeby=1.00790 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=3.71 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home Washington Capitals 2.65 2.37 0.28 5.02 away San Jose Sharks away Washington Capitals 2.46 2.57 -0.11 5.03 home San Jose Sharks neutral Washington Capitals 2.55 2.47 0.08 5.02 neutral San Jose Sharks ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 1 Washington Capitals 1.11114 2.61 2.35 ( 19) 62 - 32 12 - 17 28 - 20 4.66 Washington Capitals 1 2 San Jose Sharks 1.09305 2.63 2.40 ( 26) 58 - 42 22 - 15 32 - 26 4.55 San Jose Sharks 2 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 1.09100 2.63 2.41 ( 4) 60 - 40 16 - 20 33 - 26 4.54 Pittsburgh Penguins 3 4 Dallas Stars 1.06619 2.72 2.55 ( 12) 57 - 38 19 - 15 34 - 24 4.40 Dallas Stars 4 5 Florida Panthers 1.05940 2.56 2.41 ( 28) 49 - 39 10 - 13 21 - 27 4.36 Florida Panthers 5 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 1.05850 2.52 2.38 ( 17) 57 - 42 12 - 18 25 - 28 4.35 Tampa Bay Lightning 6 7 St. Louis Blues 1.05623 2.52 2.38 ( 1) 59 - 43 27 - 20 36 - 29 4.34 St. Louis Blues 7 8 Los Angeles Kings 1.04987 2.50 2.38 ( 25) 49 - 38 16 - 16 24 - 22 4.30 Los Angeles Kings 8 9 Chicago Blackhawks 1.04926 2.55 2.43 ( 8) 50 - 39 16 - 18 24 - 28 4.30 Chicago Blackhawks 9 10 Anaheim Ducks 1.03961 2.44 2.35 ( 30) 49 - 40 14 - 12 24 - 23 4.24 Anaheim Ducks 10 NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 11 New York Rangers 1.02523 2.56 2.50 ( 7) 47 - 40 16 - 16 22 - 24 4.16 New York Rangers 11 12 Boston Bruins 1.02376 2.58 2.52 ( 29) 42 - 40 11 - 15 18 - 22 4.15 Boston Bruins 12 13 Minnesota Wild 1.01651 2.47 2.43 ( 5) 40 - 48 16 - 22 18 - 32 4.10 Minnesota Wild 13 14 New York Islanders 1.01554 2.53 2.49 ( 6) 50 - 43 18 - 19 27 - 24 4.10 New York Islanders 14 15 Nashville Predators 1.01098 2.51 2.48 ( 2) 48 - 48 18 - 28 27 - 31 4.07 Nashville Predators 15 16 Ottawa Senators 0.98519 2.57 2.61 ( 23) 38 - 44 10 - 17 17 - 24 3.91 Ottawa Senators 16 17 Philadelphia Flyers 0.98378 2.43 2.47 ( 3) 43 - 45 12 - 20 25 - 27 3.90 Philadelphia Flyers 17 18 Detroit Red Wings 0.98069 2.45 2.49 ( 16) 42 - 45 11 - 20 21 - 29 3.88 Detroit Red Wings 18 19 Montreal Canadiens 0.97404 2.51 2.57 ( 24) 38 - 44 9 - 17 19 - 26 3.84 Montreal Canadiens 19 20 Colorado Avalanche 0.96991 2.48 2.56 ( 10) 39 - 43 14 - 17 22 - 27 3.81 Colorado Avalanche 20 NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 21 Winnipeg Jets 0.95922 2.46 2.57 ( 9) 35 - 47 10 - 21 19 - 30 3.74 Winnipeg Jets 21 22 Buffalo Sabres 0.95845 2.40 2.50 ( 22) 35 - 47 6 - 20 14 - 30 3.74 Buffalo Sabres 22 23 New Jersey Devils 0.95470 2.31 2.42 ( 21) 38 - 44 9 - 17 20 - 24 3.71 New Jersey Devils 23 24 Calgary Flames 0.95053 2.54 2.67 ( 27) 35 - 47 11 - 20 16 - 29 3.68 Calgary Flames 24 25 Arizona Coyotes 0.94644 2.44 2.58 ( 18) 35 - 47 12 - 20 18 - 28 3.66 Arizona Coyotes 25 26 Carolina Hurricanes 0.94548 2.39 2.53 ( 14) 35 - 47 9 - 18 16 - 29 3.65 Carolina Hurricanes 26 27 Columbus Blue Jackets 0.93626 2.48 2.65 ( 15) 34 - 48 10 - 16 13 - 32 3.59 Columbus Blue Jackets 27 28 Edmonton Oilers 0.91983 2.39 2.60 ( 20) 31 - 51 7 - 24 13 - 32 3.48 Edmonton Oilers 28 29 Toronto Maple Leafs 0.91305 2.37 2.60 ( 11) 29 - 53 10 - 17 14 - 32 3.43 Toronto Maple Leafs 29 30 Vancouver Canucks 0.90374 2.36 2.61 ( 13) 31 - 51 10 - 22 16 - 30 3.37 Vancouver Canucks 30

Divisional Rankings

DIVISION GEOMETRIC MEAN 1 CENTRAL (west) = 1.01758 ( 7) 4.10856( 0.25859) 2 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 1.00604 ( 8) 4.03754( 0.40207) 3 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.99301 ( 8) 3.95632( 0.31668) 4 PACIFIC (west) = 0.98384 ( 7) 3.89846( 0.46037) DIVISION GEOMETRIC MEAN 3 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.99301 ( 8) 3.95632( 0.31668) 2 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 1.00604 ( 8) 4.03754( 0.40207) 1 CENTRAL (west) = 1.01758 ( 7) 4.10856( 0.25859) 4 PACIFIC (west) = 0.98384 ( 7) 3.89846( 0.46037) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.01586 closeby=1.00790 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=3.71 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home Florida Panthers 2.48 2.27 0.21 4.75 away Tampa Bay Lightning away Florida Panthers 2.29 2.46 -0.17 4.75 home Tampa Bay Lightning neutral Florida Panthers 2.38 2.36 0.02 4.74 neutral Tampa Bay Lightning ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.99301 3.95632 NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 5 Florida Panthers 1.05940 2.56 2.41 ( 28) 49 - 39 10 - 13 21 - 27 4.36 Florida Panthers 5 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 1.05850 2.52 2.38 ( 17) 57 - 42 12 - 18 25 - 28 4.35 Tampa Bay Lightning 6 12 Boston Bruins 1.02376 2.58 2.52 ( 29) 42 - 40 11 - 15 18 - 22 4.15 Boston Bruins 12 16 Ottawa Senators 0.98519 2.57 2.61 ( 23) 38 - 44 10 - 17 17 - 24 3.91 Ottawa Senators 16 18 Detroit Red Wings 0.98069 2.45 2.49 ( 16) 42 - 45 11 - 20 21 - 29 3.88 Detroit Red Wings 18 19 Montreal Canadiens 0.97404 2.51 2.57 ( 24) 38 - 44 9 - 17 19 - 26 3.84 Montreal Canadiens 19 22 Buffalo Sabres 0.95845 2.40 2.50 ( 22) 35 - 47 6 - 20 14 - 30 3.74 Buffalo Sabres 22 29 Toronto Maple Leafs 0.91305 2.37 2.60 ( 11) 29 - 53 10 - 17 14 - 32 3.43 Toronto Maple Leafs 29 2 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 1.00604 4.03754 NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 1 Washington Capitals 1.11114 2.61 2.35 ( 19) 62 - 32 12 - 17 28 - 20 4.66 Washington Capitals 1 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 1.09100 2.63 2.41 ( 4) 60 - 40 16 - 20 33 - 26 4.54 Pittsburgh Penguins 3 11 New York Rangers 1.02523 2.56 2.50 ( 7) 47 - 40 16 - 16 22 - 24 4.16 New York Rangers 11 14 New York Islanders 1.01554 2.53 2.49 ( 6) 50 - 43 18 - 19 27 - 24 4.10 New York Islanders 14 17 Philadelphia Flyers 0.98378 2.43 2.47 ( 3) 43 - 45 12 - 20 25 - 27 3.90 Philadelphia Flyers 17 23 New Jersey Devils 0.95470 2.31 2.42 ( 21) 38 - 44 9 - 17 20 - 24 3.71 New Jersey Devils 23 26 Carolina Hurricanes 0.94548 2.39 2.53 ( 14) 35 - 47 9 - 18 16 - 29 3.65 Carolina Hurricanes 26 27 Columbus Blue Jackets 0.93626 2.48 2.65 ( 15) 34 - 48 10 - 16 13 - 32 3.59 Columbus Blue Jackets 27 1 CENTRAL (west) = 1.01758 4.10856 NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 4 Dallas Stars 1.06619 2.72 2.55 ( 12) 57 - 38 19 - 15 34 - 24 4.40 Dallas Stars 4 7 St. Louis Blues 1.05623 2.52 2.38 ( 1) 59 - 43 27 - 20 36 - 29 4.34 St. Louis Blues 7 9 Chicago Blackhawks 1.04926 2.55 2.43 ( 8) 50 - 39 16 - 18 24 - 28 4.30 Chicago Blackhawks 9 13 Minnesota Wild 1.01651 2.47 2.43 ( 5) 40 - 48 16 - 22 18 - 32 4.10 Minnesota Wild 13 15 Nashville Predators 1.01098 2.51 2.48 ( 2) 48 - 48 18 - 28 27 - 31 4.07 Nashville Predators 15 20 Colorado Avalanche 0.96991 2.48 2.56 ( 10) 39 - 43 14 - 17 22 - 27 3.81 Colorado Avalanche 20 21 Winnipeg Jets 0.95922 2.46 2.57 ( 9) 35 - 47 10 - 21 19 - 30 3.74 Winnipeg Jets 21 4 PACIFIC (west) = 0.98384 3.89846 NHL 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 26 Thursday - Conference Finals HOME multiplier= 1.01586 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00790 ( 2.49512) SUBTRACT= 3.71 average home edge= 0.20 2 San Jose Sharks 1.09305 2.63 2.40 ( 26) 58 - 42 22 - 15 32 - 26 4.55 San Jose Sharks 2 8 Los Angeles Kings 1.04987 2.50 2.38 ( 25) 49 - 38 16 - 16 24 - 22 4.30 Los Angeles Kings 8 10 Anaheim Ducks 1.03961 2.44 2.35 ( 30) 49 - 40 14 - 12 24 - 23 4.24 Anaheim Ducks 10 24 Calgary Flames 0.95053 2.54 2.67 ( 27) 35 - 47 11 - 20 16 - 29 3.68 Calgary Flames 24 25 Arizona Coyotes 0.94644 2.44 2.58 ( 18) 35 - 47 12 - 20 18 - 28 3.66 Arizona Coyotes 25 28 Edmonton Oilers 0.91983 2.39 2.60 ( 20) 31 - 51 7 - 24 13 - 32 3.48 Edmonton Oilers 28 30 Vancouver Canucks 0.90374 2.36 2.61 ( 13) 31 - 51 10 - 22 16 - 30 3.37 Vancouver Canucks 30

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