United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2023 DECEMBER 8 FRIDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
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NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
1 Los Angeles Kings = 5.20 16 7 4.07( 10) 4 3 | 7 5 | 5.68 1 | 5.64 1 | 4.49 2 pacific
2 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.85 17 10 3.84( 29) 7 1 | 8 3 | 4.94 2 | 4.89 3 | 4.41 7 pacific
3 New York Rangers = 4.83 18 6 3.98( 17) 5 1 | 9 2 | 4.80 4 | 4.96 2 | 4.43 3 METROPOLITAN
4 Colorado Avalanche = 4.71 16 10 3.87( 27) 3 3 | 5 3 | 4.65 6 | 4.61 8 | 4.52 1 central
5 Boston Bruins = 4.69 17 8 3.77( 32) 5 3 | 7 3 | 4.63 9 | 4.75 6 | 4.39 8 ATLANTIC
6 Dallas Stars = 4.67 15 10 4.11( 7) 3 6 | 5 7 | 4.64 7 | 4.63 7 | 4.42 5 central
7 Vancouver Canucks = 4.57 17 10 3.84( 30) 2 3 | 6 6 | 4.87 3 | 4.80 4 | 4.11 14 pacific
8 Winnipeg Jets = 4.52 15 10 4.15( 2) 4 6 | 7 7 | 4.68 5 | 4.76 5 | 4.12 13 central
9 Florida Panthers = 4.42 16 10 3.89( 24) 2 6 | 7 7 | 4.33 12 | 4.44 10 | 4.29 11 ATLANTIC
10 Detroit Red Wings = 4.37 14 11 3.88( 25) 2 5 | 4 8 | 4.63 8 | 4.55 9 | 4.00 19 ATLANTIC
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
11 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.30 13 10 3.96( 21) 4 4 | 5 5 | 4.09 14 | 4.16 13 | 4.42 6 ATLANTIC
12 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.17 14 12 3.88( 26) 1 4 | 5 6 | 3.96 17 | 3.93 16 | 4.42 4 METROPOLITAN
13 Edmonton Oilers = 4.13 11 13 4.03( 13) 2 7 | 3 9 | 3.90 18 | 3.91 17 | 4.37 9 pacific
14 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.11 14 12 4.04( 11) 3 4 | 5 8 | 4.49 10 | 4.39 11 | 3.68 26 METROPOLITAN
15 New Jersey Devils = 4.10 13 11 3.84( 31) 2 5 | 3 5 | 3.86 19 | 3.87 19 | 4.35 10 METROPOLITAN
16 Ottawa Senators = 4.10 10 11 3.96( 20) 2 4 | 4 6 | 4.17 13 | 4.04 14 | 4.04 17 ATLANTIC
17 Arizona Coyotes = 4.06 13 12 4.03( 15) 2 7 | 3 8 | 4.35 11 | 4.37 12 | 3.66 27 central
18 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.04 11 15 3.97( 19) 3 4 | 4 9 | 4.00 16 | 3.88 18 | 4.13 12 METROPOLITAN
19 Nashville Predators = 3.98 14 12 3.91( 23) 3 5 | 5 6 | 4.04 15 | 4.03 15 | 3.92 22 central
20 Minnesota Wild = 3.78 9 16 4.13( 4) 2 6 | 3 13 | 3.61 21 | 3.57 21 | 4.06 16 central
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
21 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.77 12 16 3.98( 18) 3 4 | 7 8 | 3.52 24 | 3.57 22 | 4.10 15 ATLANTIC
22 New York Islanders = 3.72 11 14 3.92( 22) 1 4 | 5 9 | 3.59 22 | 3.55 24 | 3.99 20 METROPOLITAN
23 Calgary Flames = 3.71 11 15 4.12( 5) 5 5 | 6 8 | 3.53 23 | 3.55 23 | 4.00 18 pacific
24 St. Louis Blues = 3.71 13 13 4.04( 12) 2 7 | 3 7 | 3.72 20 | 3.81 20 | 3.76 25 central
25 Buffalo Sabres = 3.64 11 16 4.09( 9) 3 4 | 6 9 | 3.40 27 | 3.51 25 | 3.96 21 ATLANTIC
26 Washington Capitals = 3.50 12 11 3.85( 28) 2 3 | 4 6 | 3.34 28 | 3.50 26 | 3.79 24 METROPOLITAN
27 Seattle Kraken = 3.35 8 19 4.10( 8) 3 6 | 4 12 | 3.12 30 | 2.98 30 | 3.84 23 pacific
28 Anaheim Ducks = 3.29 10 16 4.14( 3) 3 8 | 5 10 | 3.45 25 | 3.44 27 | 3.26 31 pacific
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.25 9 20 4.03( 14) 2 8 | 4 11 | 3.41 26 | 3.25 29 | 3.43 28 METROPOLITAN
30 Montreal Canadiens = 3.20 11 15 4.00( 16) 3 8 | 3 10 | 3.31 29 | 3.30 28 | 3.34 29 ATLANTIC
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.87 8 17 4.11( 6) 2 7 | 4 8 | 2.92 31 | 2.92 31 | 3.28 30 central
32 San Jose Sharks = 2.39 8 19 4.17( 1) 2 10 | 5 12 | 2.37 32 | 2.44 32 | 3.03 32 pacific
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 ATLANTIC = 4.10 4.06 ( 1) 8 4.06 ( 1)
2 central = 4.07 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2)
3 METROPOLITAN = 3.97 3.97 ( 3) 8 3.96 ( 3)
4 pacific = 3.95 3.93 ( 4) 8 3.94 ( 4)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
3 METROPOLITAN = 3.97 3.97 ( 3) 8 3.96 ( 3)
1 ATLANTIC = 4.10 4.06 ( 1) 8 4.06 ( 1)
2 central = 4.07 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2)
4 pacific = 3.95 3.93 ( 4) 8 3.94 ( 4)
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3 METROPOLITAN = 3.97 3.97 ( 3) TEAMS= 8 3.96 ( 3)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
3 New York Rangers = 4.83 18 6 3.98( 17) 5 1 | 9 2 | 4.80 4 | 4.96 2 | 4.43 3 METROPOLITAN
12 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.17 14 12 3.88( 26) 1 4 | 5 6 | 3.96 17 | 3.93 16 | 4.42 4 METROPOLITAN
14 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.11 14 12 4.04( 11) 3 4 | 5 8 | 4.49 10 | 4.39 11 | 3.68 26 METROPOLITAN
15 New Jersey Devils = 4.10 13 11 3.84( 31) 2 5 | 3 5 | 3.86 19 | 3.87 19 | 4.35 10 METROPOLITAN
18 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.04 11 15 3.97( 19) 3 4 | 4 9 | 4.00 16 | 3.88 18 | 4.13 12 METROPOLITAN
22 New York Islanders = 3.72 11 14 3.92( 22) 1 4 | 5 9 | 3.59 22 | 3.55 24 | 3.99 20 METROPOLITAN
26 Washington Capitals = 3.50 12 11 3.85( 28) 2 3 | 4 6 | 3.34 28 | 3.50 26 | 3.79 24 METROPOLITAN
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.25 9 20 4.03( 14) 2 8 | 4 11 | 3.41 26 | 3.25 29 | 3.43 28 METROPOLITAN
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1 ATLANTIC = 4.10 4.06 ( 1) TEAMS= 8 4.06 ( 1)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
5 Boston Bruins = 4.69 17 8 3.77( 32) 5 3 | 7 3 | 4.63 9 | 4.75 6 | 4.39 8 ATLANTIC
9 Florida Panthers = 4.42 16 10 3.89( 24) 2 6 | 7 7 | 4.33 12 | 4.44 10 | 4.29 11 ATLANTIC
10 Detroit Red Wings = 4.37 14 11 3.88( 25) 2 5 | 4 8 | 4.63 8 | 4.55 9 | 4.00 19 ATLANTIC
11 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.30 13 10 3.96( 21) 4 4 | 5 5 | 4.09 14 | 4.16 13 | 4.42 6 ATLANTIC
16 Ottawa Senators = 4.10 10 11 3.96( 20) 2 4 | 4 6 | 4.17 13 | 4.04 14 | 4.04 17 ATLANTIC
21 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.77 12 16 3.98( 18) 3 4 | 7 8 | 3.52 24 | 3.57 22 | 4.10 15 ATLANTIC
25 Buffalo Sabres = 3.64 11 16 4.09( 9) 3 4 | 6 9 | 3.40 27 | 3.51 25 | 3.96 21 ATLANTIC
30 Montreal Canadiens = 3.20 11 15 4.00( 16) 3 8 | 3 10 | 3.31 29 | 3.30 28 | 3.34 29 ATLANTIC
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2 central = 4.07 4.04 ( 2) TEAMS= 8 4.04 ( 2)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
4 Colorado Avalanche = 4.71 16 10 3.87( 27) 3 3 | 5 3 | 4.65 6 | 4.61 8 | 4.52 1 central
6 Dallas Stars = 4.67 15 10 4.11( 7) 3 6 | 5 7 | 4.64 7 | 4.63 7 | 4.42 5 central
8 Winnipeg Jets = 4.52 15 10 4.15( 2) 4 6 | 7 7 | 4.68 5 | 4.76 5 | 4.12 13 central
17 Arizona Coyotes = 4.06 13 12 4.03( 15) 2 7 | 3 8 | 4.35 11 | 4.37 12 | 3.66 27 central
19 Nashville Predators = 3.98 14 12 3.91( 23) 3 5 | 5 6 | 4.04 15 | 4.03 15 | 3.92 22 central
20 Minnesota Wild = 3.78 9 16 4.13( 4) 2 6 | 3 13 | 3.61 21 | 3.57 21 | 4.06 16 central
24 St. Louis Blues = 3.71 13 13 4.04( 12) 2 7 | 3 7 | 3.72 20 | 3.81 20 | 3.76 25 central
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.87 8 17 4.11( 6) 2 7 | 4 8 | 2.92 31 | 2.92 31 | 3.28 30 central
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4 pacific = 3.95 3.93 ( 4) TEAMS= 8 3.94 ( 4)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2023 December 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.19] [ 0.20] [ 0.21]
1 Los Angeles Kings = 5.20 16 7 4.07( 10) 4 3 | 7 5 | 5.68 1 | 5.64 1 | 4.49 2 pacific
2 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.85 17 10 3.84( 29) 7 1 | 8 3 | 4.94 2 | 4.89 3 | 4.41 7 pacific
7 Vancouver Canucks = 4.57 17 10 3.84( 30) 2 3 | 6 6 | 4.87 3 | 4.80 4 | 4.11 14 pacific
13 Edmonton Oilers = 4.13 11 13 4.03( 13) 2 7 | 3 9 | 3.90 18 | 3.91 17 | 4.37 9 pacific
23 Calgary Flames = 3.71 11 15 4.12( 5) 5 5 | 6 8 | 3.53 23 | 3.55 23 | 4.00 18 pacific
27 Seattle Kraken = 3.35 8 19 4.10( 8) 3 6 | 4 12 | 3.12 30 | 2.98 30 | 3.84 23 pacific
28 Anaheim Ducks = 3.29 10 16 4.14( 3) 3 8 | 5 10 | 3.45 25 | 3.44 27 | 3.26 31 pacific
32 San Jose Sharks = 2.39 8 19 4.17( 1) 2 10 | 5 12 | 2.37 32 | 2.44 32 | 3.03 32 pacific
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== BOSTON BRUINS 0.83 0.46 0.58 0.94 arizona coyotes 175 64% 5.33 los angeles kings 1.28 1.90 1.90 0.29 NEW YORK ISLANDERS 233 70% 6.63 new york rangers 1.13 1.27 1.27 0.44 WASHINGTON CAPITALS 213 68% 5.88 BUFFALO SABRES 0.64 0.28 0.41 0.82 montreal canadiens 154 61% 6.38 TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 0.52 0.24 0.32 0.70 nashville predators 142 59% 6.54 DETROIT RED WINGS 0.47 0.65 0.71 0.16 ottawa senators 138 58% 7.10 st. louis blues 0.64 0.61 0.70 0.27 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 154 61% 5.27 DALLAS STARS 0.02 -0.11 -0.06 0.21 vegas golden knights 102 50% 6.25 COLORADO AVALANCHE 0.80 0.35 0.41 1.05 philadelphia flyers 171 63% 5.84 new jersey devils 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.14 CALGARY FLAMES 114 53% 7.23 tampa bay lightning 0.23 0.21 0.39 0.05 SEATTLE KRAKEN 117 54% 7.20 VANCOUVER CANUCKS 0.59 1.10 1.07 -0.11 carolina hurricanes 150 60% 5.85 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Bruins 1.37 246 71% Arizona Coyotes 2 Los Angeles Kings 1.16 216 68% @ New York Islanders 3 New York Rangers 1.06 203 67% @ Washington Capitals 4 @ Buffalo Sabres 0.77 168 63% Montreal Canadiens 5 Nashville Predators 0.09 106 51% @ Toronto Maple Leafs 6 @ Detroit Red Wings 1.19 220 69% Ottawa Senators 7 St. Louis Blues 0.62 152 60% @ Chicago Blackhawks 8 Vegas Golden Knights 0.78 169 63% @ Dallas Stars 9 Philadelphia Flyers 0.03 102 51% @ Colorado Avalanche 10 New Jersey Devils 0.17 112 53% @ Calgary Flames 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 0.63 153 61% @ Seattle Kraken 12 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.53 144 59% Carolina Hurricanes endfileTop_of_Page