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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2014-2015 ratings through results of 2014 OCTOBER 24 FRIDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN is completely SCORE BASED but with a different algorithm than the PURE POINTS
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum
fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous;
It is slightly less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS or GOLDEN_MEAN,
in which the score is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR,
BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight
to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   1  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.90    4   2   0    3.65(  29)   1  0  0 |   2  1  0 |    4.91    1 |    4.88    1 |    4.70    1
   2  Minnesota Wild          =   4.67    3   2   0    4.18(   5)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |    4.77    2 |    4.69    2 |    4.45    3
   3  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.63    7   1   0    3.92(  20)   2  1  0 |   4  1  0 |    4.67    3 |    4.65    3 |    4.45    5
   4  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.61    3   3   0    4.02(  13)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |    4.61    4 |    4.60    4 |    4.47    2
   5  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.52    5   2   0    3.63(  30)   2  1  0 |   2  1  0 |    4.59    5 |    4.44    5 |    4.41    6
   6  St. Louis Blues         =   4.43    2   4   0    4.03(  12)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |    4.30    7 |    4.43    6 |    4.45    4
   7  Dallas Stars            =   4.30    4   3   0    4.22(   2)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |    4.31    6 |    4.31    7 |    4.21    7
   8  San Jose Sharks         =   4.25    4   4   0    4.15(   6)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |    4.22    9 |    4.26    8 |    4.20    8
   9  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.21    6   1   0    4.07(   9)   1  0  0 |   3  1  0 |    4.19   10 |    4.16   12 |    4.20    9
  10  Boston Bruins           =   4.20    4   5   0    3.89(  23)   1  1  0 |   2  3  0 |    4.17   11 |    4.18   11 |    4.19   10
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
  11  Detroit Red Wings       =   4.19    4   3   0    4.11(   7)   2  3  0 |   2  3  0 |    4.26    8 |    4.21    9 |    4.08   13
  12  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.15    5   3   0    3.73(  27)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |    4.10   14 |    4.20   10 |    4.11   11
  13  Washington Capitals     =   4.12    3   3   0    3.82(  25)   1  2  0 |   1  2  0 |    4.14   13 |    4.16   13 |    4.05   14
  14  Ottawa Senators         =   4.06    4   1   0    3.97(  16)   0  0  0 |   2  1  0 |    4.10   15 |    4.09   14 |    4.00   16
  15  Nashville Predators     =   4.04    5   2   0    3.99(  15)   2  1  0 |   3  1  0 |    4.15   12 |    4.09   15 |    3.94   19
  16  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.03    4   3   0    3.95(  18)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |    4.00   16 |    4.05   16 |    4.03   15
  17  New York Rangers        =   4.02    4   3   0    3.90(  21)   2  0  0 |   2  1  0 |    3.91   17 |    4.02   17 |    4.10   12
  18  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.92    4   3   0    3.96(  17)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |    3.85   22 |    3.95   18 |    3.96   18
  19  New Jersey Devils       =   3.89    3   4   0    4.06(  10)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |    3.89   18 |    3.93   19 |    3.89   21
  20  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.89    2   6   0    4.21(   3)   1  3  0 |   1  4  0 |    3.89   19 |    3.88   20 |    3.92   20
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
  21  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.86    3   4   0    4.10(   8)   0  2  0 |   0  4  0 |    3.88   21 |    3.86   22 |    3.88   22
  22  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.85    2   5   0    4.43(   1)   2  4  0 |   2  4  0 |    3.89   20 |    3.87   21 |    3.85   23
  23  New York Islanders      =   3.85    5   2   0    3.95(  19)   2  1  0 |   2  1  0 |    3.74   23 |    3.82   23 |    3.97   17
  24  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.69    2   4   0    4.01(  14)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |    3.70   24 |    3.64   24 |    3.80   24
  25  Florida Panthers        =   3.50    2   4   0    3.90(  22)   0  0  0 |   0  3  0 |    3.52   25 |    3.51   25 |    3.60   26
  26  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.50    2   5   0    3.86(  24)   0  2  0 |   0  4  0 |    3.47   27 |    3.46   27 |    3.65   25
  27  Calgary Flames          =   3.41    5   4   0    4.04(  11)   1  1  0 |   2  3  0 |    3.50   26 |    3.48   26 |    3.41   29
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.39    3   5   0    3.80(  26)   0  1  0 |   2  1  0 |    3.35   28 |    3.37   28 |    3.57   27
  29  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.21    0   7   0    3.66(  28)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |    3.16   29 |    3.13   29 |    3.47   28
  30  Buffalo Sabres          =   2.71    1   7   0    4.20(   4)   0  5  0 |   0  6  0 |    2.77   30 |    2.68   30 |    3.00   30
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.26       4.25  (  1)      7       4.25  (  1)
   2  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.97       3.86  (  4)      8       3.87  (  4)
   3  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.96       3.97  (  2)      7       3.97  (  2)
   4  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   3.95       3.95  (  3)      8       3.95  (  3)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.97       3.86  (  4)      8       3.87  (  4)
   4  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   3.95       3.95  (  3)      8       3.95  (  3)
   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.26       4.25  (  1)      7       4.25  (  1)
   3  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.96       3.97  (  2)      7       3.97  (  2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  ATLANTIC (EAST)         =   3.97       3.86  (  4)   TEAMS=  8       3.87  (  4)
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   9  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.21    6   1   0    4.07(   9)   1  0  0 |   3  1  0 |    4.19   10 |    4.16   12 |    4.20    9
  10  Boston Bruins           =   4.20    4   5   0    3.89(  23)   1  1  0 |   2  3  0 |    4.17   11 |    4.18   11 |    4.19   10
  11  Detroit Red Wings       =   4.19    4   3   0    4.11(   7)   2  3  0 |   2  3  0 |    4.26    8 |    4.21    9 |    4.08   13
  12  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.15    5   3   0    3.73(  27)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |    4.10   14 |    4.20   10 |    4.11   11
  14  Ottawa Senators         =   4.06    4   1   0    3.97(  16)   0  0  0 |   2  1  0 |    4.10   15 |    4.09   14 |    4.00   16
  21  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   3.86    3   4   0    4.10(   8)   0  2  0 |   0  4  0 |    3.88   21 |    3.86   22 |    3.88   22
  25  Florida Panthers        =   3.50    2   4   0    3.90(  22)   0  0  0 |   0  3  0 |    3.52   25 |    3.51   25 |    3.60   26
  30  Buffalo Sabres          =   2.71    1   7   0    4.20(   4)   0  5  0 |   0  6  0 |    2.77   30 |    2.68   30 |    3.00   30
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  METROPOLITAN (EAST)     =   3.95       3.95  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.95  (  3)
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   4  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.61    3   3   0    4.02(  13)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |    4.61    4 |    4.60    4 |    4.47    2
  13  Washington Capitals     =   4.12    3   3   0    3.82(  25)   1  2  0 |   1  2  0 |    4.14   13 |    4.16   13 |    4.05   14
  16  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.03    4   3   0    3.95(  18)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |    4.00   16 |    4.05   16 |    4.03   15
  17  New York Rangers        =   4.02    4   3   0    3.90(  21)   2  0  0 |   2  1  0 |    3.91   17 |    4.02   17 |    4.10   12
  19  New Jersey Devils       =   3.89    3   4   0    4.06(  10)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |    3.89   18 |    3.93   19 |    3.89   21
  22  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.85    2   5   0    4.43(   1)   2  4  0 |   2  4  0 |    3.89   20 |    3.87   21 |    3.85   23
  23  New York Islanders      =   3.85    5   2   0    3.95(  19)   2  1  0 |   2  1  0 |    3.74   23 |    3.82   23 |    3.97   17
  29  Carolina Hurricanes     =   3.21    0   7   0    3.66(  28)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |    3.16   29 |    3.13   29 |    3.47   28
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  CENTRAL (west)          =   4.26       4.25  (  1)   TEAMS=  7       4.25  (  1)
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   1  Chicago Blackhawks      =   4.90    4   2   0    3.65(  29)   1  0  0 |   2  1  0 |    4.91    1 |    4.88    1 |    4.70    1
   2  Minnesota Wild          =   4.67    3   2   0    4.18(   5)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |    4.77    2 |    4.69    2 |    4.45    3
   6  St. Louis Blues         =   4.43    2   4   0    4.03(  12)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |    4.30    7 |    4.43    6 |    4.45    4
   7  Dallas Stars            =   4.30    4   3   0    4.22(   2)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |    4.31    6 |    4.31    7 |    4.21    7
  15  Nashville Predators     =   4.04    5   2   0    3.99(  15)   2  1  0 |   3  1  0 |    4.15   12 |    4.09   15 |    3.94   19
  20  Colorado Avalanche      =   3.89    2   6   0    4.21(   3)   1  3  0 |   1  4  0 |    3.89   19 |    3.88   20 |    3.92   20
  26  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.50    2   5   0    3.86(  24)   0  2  0 |   0  4  0 |    3.47   27 |    3.46   27 |    3.65   25
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  PACIFIC (west)          =   3.96       3.97  (  2)   TEAMS=  7       3.97  (  2)
NHL 2014-2015 through games of 2014 October 24 Friday                                                                               
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.26]                                                   [  0.25]       [  0.27]       [  0.27]
   3  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.63    7   1   0    3.92(  20)   2  1  0 |   4  1  0 |    4.67    3 |    4.65    3 |    4.45    5
   5  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.52    5   2   0    3.63(  30)   2  1  0 |   2  1  0 |    4.59    5 |    4.44    5 |    4.41    6
   8  San Jose Sharks         =   4.25    4   4   0    4.15(   6)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |    4.22    9 |    4.26    8 |    4.20    8
  18  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.92    4   3   0    3.96(  17)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |    3.85   22 |    3.95   18 |    3.96   18
  24  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.69    2   4   0    4.01(  14)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |    3.70   24 |    3.64   24 |    3.80   24
  27  Calgary Flames          =   3.41    5   4   0    4.04(  11)   1  1  0 |   2  3  0 |    3.50   26 |    3.48   26 |    3.41   29
  28  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.39    3   5   0    3.80(  26)   0  1  0 |   2  1  0 |    3.35   28 |    3.37   28 |    3.57   27
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile