United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2022-2023 ratings through results of 2023 MARCH 29 WEDNESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
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NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
1 Boston Bruins = 5.19 57 17 4.01( 15) 18 5 | 29 9 | 5.20 1 | 5.26 1 | 5.16 1 ATLANTIC
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.64 47 26 4.02( 9) 9 16 | 19 19 | 4.59 4 | 4.70 2 | 4.65 3 METROPOLITAN
3 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.62 44 30 3.99( 23) 11 10 | 20 15 | 4.65 2 | 4.60 3 | 4.61 5 ATLANTIC
4 New York Rangers = 4.62 44 30 4.00( 18) 12 10 | 22 14 | 4.57 5 | 4.55 5 | 4.68 2 METROPOLITAN
5 Colorado Avalanche = 4.61 44 30 3.97( 27) 10 10 | 17 18 | 4.60 3 | 4.58 4 | 4.63 4 central
6 Edmonton Oilers = 4.56 43 32 3.98( 25) 10 11 | 20 17 | 4.55 7 | 4.49 7 | 4.61 6 pacific
7 New Jersey Devils = 4.47 46 28 4.02( 10) 11 12 | 19 18 | 4.56 6 | 4.50 6 | 4.41 9 METROPOLITAN
8 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.43 46 28 3.96( 30) 11 9 | 16 19 | 4.43 10 | 4.45 8 | 4.41 8 pacific
9 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.42 43 32 3.99( 22) 9 13 | 18 17 | 4.46 9 | 4.42 9 | 4.39 10 ATLANTIC
10 Minnesota Wild = 4.39 44 31 3.95( 32) 7 12 | 15 21 | 4.34 11 | 4.39 10 | 4.42 7 central
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
11 Dallas Stars = 4.38 40 34 3.97( 28) 7 17 | 16 21 | 4.48 8 | 4.34 11 | 4.34 12 central
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.31 43 31 3.97( 29) 11 11 | 18 18 | 4.21 12 | 4.32 12 | 4.36 11 pacific
13 Florida Panthers = 4.16 37 38 4.05( 3) 12 15 | 15 23 | 4.16 14 | 4.18 13 | 4.15 13 ATLANTIC
14 New York Islanders = 4.12 39 37 4.00( 17) 11 13 | 14 21 | 4.08 16 | 4.15 14 | 4.13 14 METROPOLITAN
15 Seattle Kraken = 4.12 40 33 4.03( 8) 9 15 | 16 21 | 4.16 13 | 4.12 15 | 4.09 16 pacific
16 Calgary Flames = 4.08 34 41 4.01( 14) 9 16 | 18 21 | 4.11 15 | 4.03 18 | 4.09 15 pacific
17 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.03 36 38 4.05( 2) 10 16 | 15 26 | 4.06 17 | 4.10 16 | 3.98 20 METROPOLITAN
18 Ottawa Senators = 3.97 36 38 4.02( 12) 6 18 | 13 24 | 3.95 20 | 3.90 21 | 4.02 17 ATLANTIC
19 Winnipeg Jets = 3.95 41 34 3.99( 24) 9 14 | 17 21 | 4.00 19 | 4.07 17 | 3.88 21 central
20 Nashville Predators = 3.95 37 36 3.96( 31) 7 14 | 16 20 | 3.85 21 | 3.97 19 | 3.98 19 central
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
21 Washington Capitals = 3.92 34 41 4.00( 21) 8 16 | 13 24 | 4.01 18 | 3.94 20 | 3.86 22 METROPOLITAN
22 Vancouver Canucks = 3.91 34 40 4.00( 19) 6 18 | 15 23 | 3.85 22 | 3.82 22 | 3.98 18 pacific
23 Buffalo Sabres = 3.76 35 38 4.04( 5) 9 15 | 15 23 | 3.77 23 | 3.80 23 | 3.74 24 ATLANTIC
24 St. Louis Blues = 3.76 34 40 3.98( 26) 8 15 | 14 23 | 3.75 24 | 3.76 24 | 3.77 23 central
25 Detroit Red Wings = 3.65 32 41 4.01( 13) 10 14 | 13 24 | 3.65 25 | 3.71 25 | 3.61 25 ATLANTIC
26 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.55 29 44 4.05( 1) 6 21 | 11 29 | 3.55 26 | 3.47 26 | 3.59 26 METROPOLITAN
27 Arizona Coyotes = 3.32 27 48 4.04( 4) 9 17 | 14 25 | 3.28 27 | 3.22 28 | 3.39 27 central
28 Montreal Canadiens = 3.32 30 45 4.04( 6) 6 19 | 10 28 | 3.25 28 | 3.30 27 | 3.36 28 ATLANTIC
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.03 23 50 4.04( 7) 5 18 | 10 27 | 3.02 30 | 3.05 29 | 3.03 29 METROPOLITAN
30 San Jose Sharks = 3.00 20 54 4.00( 20) 6 15 | 9 28 | 3.11 29 | 2.97 30 | 2.95 30 pacific
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.88 24 50 4.02( 11) 5 18 | 11 27 | 2.86 32 | 2.94 31 | 2.86 32 central
32 Anaheim Ducks = 2.88 23 51 4.01( 16) 7 15 | 10 27 | 2.88 31 | 2.91 32 | 2.86 31 pacific
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 ATLANTIC = 4.11 4.14 ( 1) 8 4.13 ( 1)
2 METROPOLITAN = 4.09 4.05 ( 2) 8 4.05 ( 2)
3 pacific = 3.99 3.91 ( 3) 8 3.92 ( 3)
4 central = 3.95 3.91 ( 4) 8 3.91 ( 4)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 METROPOLITAN = 4.09 4.05 ( 2) 8 4.05 ( 2)
1 ATLANTIC = 4.11 4.14 ( 1) 8 4.13 ( 1)
4 central = 3.95 3.91 ( 4) 8 3.91 ( 4)
3 pacific = 3.99 3.91 ( 3) 8 3.92 ( 3)
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2 METROPOLITAN = 4.09 4.05 ( 2) TEAMS= 8 4.05 ( 2)
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.64 47 26 4.02( 9) 9 16 | 19 19 | 4.59 4 | 4.70 2 | 4.65 3 METROPOLITAN
4 New York Rangers = 4.62 44 30 4.00( 18) 12 10 | 22 14 | 4.57 5 | 4.55 5 | 4.68 2 METROPOLITAN
7 New Jersey Devils = 4.47 46 28 4.02( 10) 11 12 | 19 18 | 4.56 6 | 4.50 6 | 4.41 9 METROPOLITAN
14 New York Islanders = 4.12 39 37 4.00( 17) 11 13 | 14 21 | 4.08 16 | 4.15 14 | 4.13 14 METROPOLITAN
17 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.03 36 38 4.05( 2) 10 16 | 15 26 | 4.06 17 | 4.10 16 | 3.98 20 METROPOLITAN
21 Washington Capitals = 3.92 34 41 4.00( 21) 8 16 | 13 24 | 4.01 18 | 3.94 20 | 3.86 22 METROPOLITAN
26 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.55 29 44 4.05( 1) 6 21 | 11 29 | 3.55 26 | 3.47 26 | 3.59 26 METROPOLITAN
29 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.03 23 50 4.04( 7) 5 18 | 10 27 | 3.02 30 | 3.05 29 | 3.03 29 METROPOLITAN
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1 ATLANTIC = 4.11 4.14 ( 1) TEAMS= 8 4.13 ( 1)
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
1 Boston Bruins = 5.19 57 17 4.01( 15) 18 5 | 29 9 | 5.20 1 | 5.26 1 | 5.16 1 ATLANTIC
3 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.62 44 30 3.99( 23) 11 10 | 20 15 | 4.65 2 | 4.60 3 | 4.61 5 ATLANTIC
9 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.42 43 32 3.99( 22) 9 13 | 18 17 | 4.46 9 | 4.42 9 | 4.39 10 ATLANTIC
13 Florida Panthers = 4.16 37 38 4.05( 3) 12 15 | 15 23 | 4.16 14 | 4.18 13 | 4.15 13 ATLANTIC
18 Ottawa Senators = 3.97 36 38 4.02( 12) 6 18 | 13 24 | 3.95 20 | 3.90 21 | 4.02 17 ATLANTIC
23 Buffalo Sabres = 3.76 35 38 4.04( 5) 9 15 | 15 23 | 3.77 23 | 3.80 23 | 3.74 24 ATLANTIC
25 Detroit Red Wings = 3.65 32 41 4.01( 13) 10 14 | 13 24 | 3.65 25 | 3.71 25 | 3.61 25 ATLANTIC
28 Montreal Canadiens = 3.32 30 45 4.04( 6) 6 19 | 10 28 | 3.25 28 | 3.30 27 | 3.36 28 ATLANTIC
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4 central = 3.95 3.91 ( 4) TEAMS= 8 3.91 ( 4)
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
5 Colorado Avalanche = 4.61 44 30 3.97( 27) 10 10 | 17 18 | 4.60 3 | 4.58 4 | 4.63 4 central
10 Minnesota Wild = 4.39 44 31 3.95( 32) 7 12 | 15 21 | 4.34 11 | 4.39 10 | 4.42 7 central
11 Dallas Stars = 4.38 40 34 3.97( 28) 7 17 | 16 21 | 4.48 8 | 4.34 11 | 4.34 12 central
19 Winnipeg Jets = 3.95 41 34 3.99( 24) 9 14 | 17 21 | 4.00 19 | 4.07 17 | 3.88 21 central
20 Nashville Predators = 3.95 37 36 3.96( 31) 7 14 | 16 20 | 3.85 21 | 3.97 19 | 3.98 19 central
24 St. Louis Blues = 3.76 34 40 3.98( 26) 8 15 | 14 23 | 3.75 24 | 3.76 24 | 3.77 23 central
27 Arizona Coyotes = 3.32 27 48 4.04( 4) 9 17 | 14 25 | 3.28 27 | 3.22 28 | 3.39 27 central
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 2.88 24 50 4.02( 11) 5 18 | 11 27 | 2.86 32 | 2.94 31 | 2.86 32 central
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3 pacific = 3.99 3.91 ( 3) TEAMS= 8 3.92 ( 3)
NHL 2022-2023 through games of 2023 March 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.12] [ 0.11] [ 0.12] [ 0.12]
6 Edmonton Oilers = 4.56 43 32 3.98( 25) 10 11 | 20 17 | 4.55 7 | 4.49 7 | 4.61 6 pacific
8 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.43 46 28 3.96( 30) 11 9 | 16 19 | 4.43 10 | 4.45 8 | 4.41 8 pacific
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.31 43 31 3.97( 29) 11 11 | 18 18 | 4.21 12 | 4.32 12 | 4.36 11 pacific
15 Seattle Kraken = 4.12 40 33 4.03( 8) 9 15 | 16 21 | 4.16 13 | 4.12 15 | 4.09 16 pacific
16 Calgary Flames = 4.08 34 41 4.01( 14) 9 16 | 18 21 | 4.11 15 | 4.03 18 | 4.09 15 pacific
22 Vancouver Canucks = 3.91 34 40 4.00( 19) 6 18 | 15 23 | 3.85 22 | 3.82 22 | 3.98 18 pacific
30 San Jose Sharks = 3.00 20 54 4.00( 20) 6 15 | 9 28 | 3.11 29 | 2.97 30 | 2.95 30 pacific
32 Anaheim Ducks = 2.88 23 51 4.01( 16) 7 15 | 10 27 | 2.88 31 | 2.91 32 | 2.86 31 pacific
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== BOSTON BRUINS 2.28 2.29 2.34 2.25 columbus blue jacket 444 82% 6.43 florida panthers 0.72 0.79 0.76 0.67 MONTREAL CANADIENS 165 62% 6.63 new york rangers 0.03 -0.10 -0.07 0.16 NEW JERSEY DEVILS 102 51% 6.19 OTTAWA SENATORS 0.54 0.51 0.55 0.55 philadelphia flyers 146 59% 6.44 PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 0.20 0.32 0.24 0.12 nashville predators 115 54% 5.31 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 0.62 0.56 0.60 0.66 washington capitals 154 61% 6.42 carolina hurricanes 0.87 0.82 0.86 0.91 DETROIT RED WINGS 183 65% 5.99 st. louis blues 0.76 0.78 0.70 0.79 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 170 63% 6.08 EDMONTON OILERS 0.37 0.45 0.29 0.36 los angeles kings 130 57% 7.56 vegas golden knights 1.31 1.22 1.35 1.35 SAN JOSE SHARKS 243 71% 6.95 SEATTLE KRAKEN 1.36 1.40 1.33 1.35 anaheim ducks 252 72% 6.43 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Bruins 3.50 883 90% Columbus Blue Jacket 2 Florida Panthers 0.77 171 63% @ Montreal Canadiens 3 @ New Jersey Devils 0.19 114 53% New York Rangers 4 @ Ottawa Senators 0.72 165 62% Philadelphia Flyers 5 @ Pittsburgh Penguins 0.29 123 55% Nashville Predators 6 @ Tampa Bay Lightning 0.79 173 63% Washington Capitals 7 Carolina Hurricanes 1.20 227 69% @ Detroit Red Wings 8 St. Louis Blues 0.72 165 62% @ Chicago Blackhawks 9 @ Edmonton Oilers 0.40 133 57% Los Angeles Kings 10 Vegas Golden Knights 1.83 338 77% @ San Jose Sharks 11 @ Seattle Kraken 1.99 372 79% Anaheim Ducks endfileTop_of_Page