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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2020-2021 ratings through results of 2021 MAY 9 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
   1  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.99   39  15    3.90(  29)    7   8  |   13  10  |    4.95    1 |    4.96    1 |    5.07    1  WEST
   2  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.60   36  17    3.96(  21)    8   7  |   13  10  |    4.81    2 |    4.78    2 |    4.38    6  WEST
   3  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.57   37  19    3.98(  17)   15   9  |   21  11  |    4.53    6 |    4.52    5 |    4.67    4  EAST
   4  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.50   35  19    3.82(  31)    0   0  |    6   3  |    4.41    7 |    4.45    7 |    4.66    5  NORTH
   5  Boston Bruins           =   4.43   32  22    3.99(  15)   11  11  |   16  14  |    4.53    5 |    4.51    6 |    4.27    7  EAST
   6  Minnesota Wild          =   4.41   35  19    3.97(  18)    8   8  |   10  12  |    4.31    9 |    4.29    9 |    4.76    3  WEST
   7  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.40   36  19    3.91(  28)    6   2  |   22   9  |    4.61    4 |    4.63    4 |    4.11   12  CENTRAL
   8  Florida Panthers        =   4.39   36  19    3.92(  27)    2   6  |   17  14  |    4.23   12 |    4.27   11 |    4.99    2  CENTRAL
   9  Washington Capitals     =   4.27   35  20    4.02(  13)   11  12  |   15  16  |    4.32    8 |    4.39    8 |    4.13   11  EAST
  10  New York Islanders      =   4.27   32  23    4.01(  14)    9  14  |   15  16  |    4.28   10 |    4.28   10 |    4.23    9  EAST
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
  11  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.26   36  19    3.93(  26)    7   8  |   19  12  |    4.66    3 |    4.66    3 |    3.73   22  CENTRAL
  12  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.19   33  20    3.87(  30)    3   6  |    3   6  |    4.27   11 |    4.20   12 |    4.11   13  NORTH
  13  St. Louis Blues         =   4.15   24  29    4.02(  12)    9  13  |    9  13  |    4.17   13 |    4.14   13 |    4.15   10  WEST
  14  Nashville Predators     =   4.14   30  25    3.95(  23)    4  11  |   11  20  |    4.07   15 |    4.12   14 |    4.24    8  CENTRAL
  15  New York Rangers        =   3.97   27  29    4.06(   8)   11  21  |   11  21  |    4.12   14 |    4.08   15 |    3.71   23  EAST
  16  Dallas Stars            =   3.93   22  33    3.99(  16)    4  12  |    9  23  |    4.05   16 |    3.99   16 |    3.74   20  CENTRAL
  17  Calgary Flames          =   3.91   23  29    3.94(  25)    3   6  |    7  12  |    3.83   20 |    3.83   20 |    4.07   15  NORTH
  18  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.82   24  31    4.10(   5)   12  20  |   16  24  |    3.84   19 |    3.93   18 |    3.68   25  EAST
  19  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.81   28  25    3.95(  22)    3   6  |    5  13  |    3.98   17 |    3.94   17 |    3.41   29  NORTH
  20  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.80   24  30    3.94(  24)    3   7  |    8   9  |    3.86   18 |    3.86   19 |    3.67   26  NORTH
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
  21  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.75   24  32    4.08(   7)    5  19  |   10  22  |    3.75   21 |    3.75   21 |    3.76   19  WEST
  22  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.75   24  31    4.02(  11)    5  11  |   12  27  |    3.52   25 |    3.54   24 |    4.10   14  CENTRAL
  23  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.65   20  29    3.96(  20)    4   5  |    7  11  |    3.49   26 |    3.65   22 |    3.77   18  NORTH
  24  Ottawa Senators         =   3.58   22  33    3.96(  19)    3   5  |    3  14  |    3.33   29 |    3.35   28 |    3.87   16  NORTH
  25  New Jersey Devils       =   3.55   19  36    4.13(   1)    9  23  |   11  29  |    3.46   27 |    3.45   27 |    3.69   24  EAST
  26  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.54   15  41    4.13(   2)    6  26  |    8  32  |    3.30   30 |    3.35   29 |    3.81   17  EAST
  27  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.53   18  38    4.04(  10)    4  12  |   12  28  |    3.55   23 |    3.58   23 |    3.44   28  CENTRAL
  28  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.51   21  32    4.09(   6)    5  17  |   10  19  |    3.62   22 |    3.50   25 |    3.40   30  WEST
  29  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.51   17  39    4.12(   4)    4  20  |    7  25  |    3.34   28 |    3.30   30 |    3.74   21  WEST
  30  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.43   19  37    4.06(   9)    6  10  |   13  27  |    3.29   31 |    3.25   31 |    3.63   27  CENTRAL
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
  31  San Jose Sharks         =   3.40   21  34    4.12(   3)    5  18  |    8  23  |    3.53   24 |    3.47   26 |    2.99   31  WEST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EAST                    =   4.06       4.05  (  1)      8       4.05  (  1)
   2  WEST                    =   4.00       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   3  CENTRAL                 =   4.00       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   4  NORTH                   =   3.88       3.92  (  4)      7       3.92  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  EAST                    =   4.06       4.05  (  1)      8       4.05  (  1)
   3  CENTRAL                 =   4.00       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   2  WEST                    =   4.00       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   4  NORTH                   =   3.88       3.92  (  4)      7       3.92  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  EAST                    =   4.06       4.05  (  1)   TEAMS=  8       4.05  (  1)
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
   3  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.57   37  19    3.98(  17)   15   9  |   21  11  |    4.53    6 |    4.52    5 |    4.67    4  EAST
   5  Boston Bruins           =   4.43   32  22    3.99(  15)   11  11  |   16  14  |    4.53    5 |    4.51    6 |    4.27    7  EAST
   9  Washington Capitals     =   4.27   35  20    4.02(  13)   11  12  |   15  16  |    4.32    8 |    4.39    8 |    4.13   11  EAST
  10  New York Islanders      =   4.27   32  23    4.01(  14)    9  14  |   15  16  |    4.28   10 |    4.28   10 |    4.23    9  EAST
  15  New York Rangers        =   3.97   27  29    4.06(   8)   11  21  |   11  21  |    4.12   14 |    4.08   15 |    3.71   23  EAST
  18  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.82   24  31    4.10(   5)   12  20  |   16  24  |    3.84   19 |    3.93   18 |    3.68   25  EAST
  25  New Jersey Devils       =   3.55   19  36    4.13(   1)    9  23  |   11  29  |    3.46   27 |    3.45   27 |    3.69   24  EAST
  26  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.54   15  41    4.13(   2)    6  26  |    8  32  |    3.30   30 |    3.35   29 |    3.81   17  EAST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  CENTRAL                 =   4.00       3.98  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.98  (  3)
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
   7  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.40   36  19    3.91(  28)    6   2  |   22   9  |    4.61    4 |    4.63    4 |    4.11   12  CENTRAL
   8  Florida Panthers        =   4.39   36  19    3.92(  27)    2   6  |   17  14  |    4.23   12 |    4.27   11 |    4.99    2  CENTRAL
  11  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.26   36  19    3.93(  26)    7   8  |   19  12  |    4.66    3 |    4.66    3 |    3.73   22  CENTRAL
  14  Nashville Predators     =   4.14   30  25    3.95(  23)    4  11  |   11  20  |    4.07   15 |    4.12   14 |    4.24    8  CENTRAL
  16  Dallas Stars            =   3.93   22  33    3.99(  16)    4  12  |    9  23  |    4.05   16 |    3.99   16 |    3.74   20  CENTRAL
  22  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.75   24  31    4.02(  11)    5  11  |   12  27  |    3.52   25 |    3.54   24 |    4.10   14  CENTRAL
  27  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.53   18  38    4.04(  10)    4  12  |   12  28  |    3.55   23 |    3.58   23 |    3.44   28  CENTRAL
  30  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.43   19  37    4.06(   9)    6  10  |   13  27  |    3.29   31 |    3.25   31 |    3.63   27  CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  WEST                    =   4.00       4.04  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.04  (  2)
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
   1  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.99   39  15    3.90(  29)    7   8  |   13  10  |    4.95    1 |    4.96    1 |    5.07    1  WEST
   2  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.60   36  17    3.96(  21)    8   7  |   13  10  |    4.81    2 |    4.78    2 |    4.38    6  WEST
   6  Minnesota Wild          =   4.41   35  19    3.97(  18)    8   8  |   10  12  |    4.31    9 |    4.29    9 |    4.76    3  WEST
  13  St. Louis Blues         =   4.15   24  29    4.02(  12)    9  13  |    9  13  |    4.17   13 |    4.14   13 |    4.15   10  WEST
  21  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.75   24  32    4.08(   7)    5  19  |   10  22  |    3.75   21 |    3.75   21 |    3.76   19  WEST
  28  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.51   21  32    4.09(   6)    5  17  |   10  19  |    3.62   22 |    3.50   25 |    3.40   30  WEST
  29  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.51   17  39    4.12(   4)    4  20  |    7  25  |    3.34   28 |    3.30   30 |    3.74   21  WEST
  31  San Jose Sharks         =   3.40   21  34    4.12(   3)    5  18  |    8  23  |    3.53   24 |    3.47   26 |    2.99   31  WEST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  NORTH                   =   3.88       3.92  (  4)   TEAMS=  7       3.92  (  4)
NHL 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday                                                                                                
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.20]                                               [  0.20]       [  0.20]       [  0.20]
   4  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.50   35  19    3.82(  31)    0   0  |    6   3  |    4.41    7 |    4.45    7 |    4.66    5  NORTH
  12  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.19   33  20    3.87(  30)    3   6  |    3   6  |    4.27   11 |    4.20   12 |    4.11   13  NORTH
  17  Calgary Flames          =   3.91   23  29    3.94(  25)    3   6  |    7  12  |    3.83   20 |    3.83   20 |    4.07   15  NORTH
  19  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.81   28  25    3.95(  22)    3   6  |    5  13  |    3.98   17 |    3.94   17 |    3.41   29  NORTH
  20  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.80   24  30    3.94(  24)    3   7  |    8   9  |    3.86   18 |    3.86   19 |    3.67   26  NORTH
  23  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.65   20  29    3.96(  20)    4   5  |    7  11  |    3.49   26 |    3.65   22 |    3.77   18  NORTH
  24  Ottawa Senators         =   3.58   22  33    3.96(  19)    3   5  |    3  14  |    3.33   29 |    3.35   28 |    3.87   16  NORTH
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== BOSTON BRUINS 0.36 0.45 0.43 0.24 new york islanders 129 56% 5.01 edmonton oilers 0.19 0.21 0.14 0.23 MONTREAL CANADIENS 114 53% 5.76 PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 0.48 0.58 0.69 0.19 new jersey devils 140 58% 6.36 FLORIDA PANTHERS 0.33 -0.22 -0.19 1.46 tampa bay lightning 126 56% 5.73 carolina hurricanes 0.06 0.33 0.31 -0.34 NASHVILLE PREDATORS 104 51% 5.29 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 0.02 -0.33 -0.25 0.56 dallas stars 102 50% 6.06 WINNIPEG JETS 0.37 0.70 0.50 -0.16 vancouver canucks 130 56% 6.05 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 0.59 0.35 0.38 0.89 colorado avalanche 151 60% 5.38 st. louis blues 0.44 0.34 0.44 0.55 LOS ANGELES KINGS 136 58% 5.60 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Bruins 0.25 119 54% New York Islanders 2 Edmonton Oilers 0.52 144 59% @ Montreal Canadiens 3 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.63 155 61% New Jersey Devils 4 @ Florida Panthers 0.06 104 51% Tampa Bay Lightning 5 Carolina Hurricanes 0.75 168 63% @ Nashville Predators 6 @ Chicago Blackhawks 0.07 105 51% Dallas Stars 7 @ Winnipeg Jets 1.13 215 68% Vancouver Canucks 8 @ Vegas Golden Knights 0.44 136 58% Colorado Avalanche 9 St. Louis Blues 0.04 103 51% @ Los Angeles Kings endfile

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