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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2026 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2026 Ratings through results of 2026 SEPTEMBER 28 MONDAY - WEEK 3

this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
   1  San Francisco 49ers     =  24.82    3   0   0   17.39(  31)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   24.05    4 |   24.67    3 |   25.67    2 |   25.03    5  (NFC WEST)
   2  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  24.37    2   1   0   20.11(  14)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   23.36    7 |   22.72   10 |   28.10    1 |   27.11    1  (afc south)
   3  Kansas City Chiefs      =  24.24    3   0   0   18.09(  28)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   23.99    5 |   24.76    2 |   24.28    4 |   23.93    6  (afc west)
   4  Chicago Bears           =  23.89    2   1   0   20.12(  13)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   23.08    8 |   22.86    7 |   25.38    3 |   25.27    4  (NFC NORTH)
   5  Seattle Seahawks        =  23.45    2   1   0   19.83(  15)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   24.65    3 |   24.15    5 |   23.04    7 |   22.09    7  (NFC WEST)
   6  Minnesota Vikings       =  23.23    3   0   0   20.56(  10)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   21.90   12 |   22.82    8 |   24.11    5 |   25.65    3  (NFC NORTH)
   7  Los Angeles Rams        =  22.48    1   2   0   21.73(   5)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   25.20    1 |   24.44    4 |   21.56   10 |   19.70   17  (NFC WEST)
   8  Denver Broncos          =  22.45    2   1   0   23.00(   2)   2  1  0 |   2  1  0 |   22.10   11 |   22.79    9 |   22.96    8 |   21.52    8  (afc west)
   9  Buffalo Bills           =  22.07    3   0   0   18.04(  29)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   24.68    2 |   25.29    1 |   19.89   17 |   21.31   10  (afc east)
  10  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.01    2   1   0   19.32(  20)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   23.84    6 |   23.25    6 |   20.98   13 |   20.66   14  (afc north)
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
  11  Cincinnati Bengals      =  21.29    2   1   0   19.11(  23)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   22.24    9 |   21.91   12 |   20.44   15 |   21.20   11  (afc north)
  12  New England Patriots    =  21.25    1   2   0   23.00(   3)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   21.58   13 |   21.58   14 |   21.30   11 |   20.32   16  (afc east)
  13  Las Vegas Raiders       =  20.94    3   0   0   18.60(  25)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   18.12   25 |   19.16   19 |   23.38    6 |   25.66    2  (afc west)
  14  Dallas Cowboys          =  20.42    1   2   0   19.26(  22)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   22.14   10 |   21.08   15 |   19.32   18 |   19.58   19  (NFC EAST)
  15  Detroit Lions           =  19.90    2   1   0   18.59(  26)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   21.40   14 |   22.08   11 |   18.38   20 |   17.66   24  (NFC NORTH)
  16  Carolina Panthers       =  19.87    1   2   0   20.47(  11)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   18.47   21 |   18.21   24 |   21.79    9 |   20.62   15  (NFC SOUTH)
  17  New Orleans Saints      =  19.63    1   2   0   21.64(   7)   1  0  0 |   1  2  0 |   18.25   24 |   18.33   22 |   20.87   14 |   21.36    9  (NFC SOUTH)
  18  Philadelphia Eagles     =  19.25    2   1   0   19.31(  21)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   20.89   15 |   21.72   13 |   17.23   25 |   16.43   28  (NFC EAST)
  19  Cleveland Browns        =  18.76    2   1   0   21.47(   8)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   14.92   30 |   16.35   28 |   21.09   12 |   21.00   13  (afc north)
  20  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  18.75    2   1   0   19.08(  24)   0  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   18.88   19 |   19.64   16 |   18.21   21 |   18.64   21  (afc north)
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
  21  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  18.29    0   3   0   20.44(  12)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   18.28   23 |   17.33   26 |   19.30   19 |   17.58   26  (NFC SOUTH)
  22  Houston Texans          =  18.22    0   3   0   19.74(  16)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   20.54   16 |   19.35   17 |   16.20   29 |   15.58   29  (afc south)
  23  Washington Redskins     =  18.20    1   2   0   21.71(   6)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   18.55   20 |   18.30   23 |   17.83   23 |   18.68   20  (NFC EAST)
  24  Los Angeles Chargers    =  18.05    0   3   0   19.63(  17)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   20.31   17 |   19.02   20 |   16.52   26 |   14.31   31  (afc west)
  25  Arizona Cardinals       =  18.01    1   2   0   22.75(   4)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   13.65   31 |   14.09   31 |   19.98   16 |   21.13   12  (NFC WEST)
  26  Indianapolis Colts      =  17.91    1   2   0   20.76(   9)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   18.39   22 |   18.08   25 |   17.51   24 |   18.10   22  (afc south)
  27  New York Giants         =  17.55    2   1   0   18.37(  27)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   17.92   26 |   18.79   21 |   16.26   28 |   17.77   23  (NFC EAST)
  28  Green Bay Packers       =  17.52    1   2   0   19.35(  19)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   19.54   18 |   19.27   18 |   14.60   31 |   13.63   32  (NFC NORTH)
  29  Atlanta Falcons         =  16.71    1   2   0   19.39(  18)   0  0  0 |   0  1  0 |   16.78   27 |   16.99   27 |   16.26   27 |   17.58   25  (NFC SOUTH)
  30  New York Jets           =  16.29    1   2   0   17.87(  30)   0  0  0 |   0  1  0 |   15.26   28 |   14.84   29 |   16.18   30 |   19.63   18  (afc east)
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
  31  Miami Dolphins          =  15.94    0   3   0   24.00(   1)   0  2  0 |   0  3  0 |   11.85   32 |   11.99   32 |   17.95   22 |   16.46   27  (afc east)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  14.27    0   3   0   17.02(  32)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   15.20   29 |   14.11   30 |   13.45   32 |   14.80   30  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.



      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT          STRONG_RECENT
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  22.44      22.19  (  1)      4      22.22  (  1)  22.1870( 2.9477)  21.8877( 5.5125)  21.8394( 5.1673)  22.5614( 2.4179)  21.9871( 2.2535)
   2  (afc west)              =  21.51      21.42  (  2)      4      21.43  (  2)  21.4183( 2.6194)  21.1315( 2.5068)  21.4346( 2.8216)  21.7850( 3.5512)  21.3557( 4.9973)
   3  (NFC NORTH)             =  21.28      21.14  (  3)      4      21.15  (  3)  21.1361( 2.9778)  21.4802( 1.4720)  21.7585( 1.6959)  20.6167( 5.0394)  20.5530( 5.9040)
   4  (afc north)             =  20.15      20.21  (  4)      4      20.20  (  4)  20.2052( 1.6976)  19.9690( 3.9532)  20.2870( 3.0177)  20.1801( 1.3448)  20.3763( 1.1773)
   5  (afc east)              =  18.85      18.89  (  5)      4      18.88  (  5)  18.8862( 3.2221)  18.3415( 5.8374)  18.4251( 6.0937)  18.8286( 2.2379)  19.4298( 2.0988)
   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.81      18.85  (  6)      4      18.85  (  6)  18.8519( 1.2562)  19.8737( 1.9783)  19.9720( 1.6835)  17.6595( 1.2813)  18.1175( 1.3433)
   7  (NFC SOUTH)             =  18.74      18.62  (  8)      4      18.63  (  8)  18.6240( 1.4530)  17.9429( 0.7833)  17.7163( 0.6560)  19.5562( 2.4262)  19.2834( 1.9880)
   8  (afc south)             =  18.48      18.69  (  7)      4      18.64  (  7)  18.6914( 4.1899)  19.3735( 3.4465)  18.5670( 3.5569)  18.8125( 6.4158)  18.8972( 5.6524)
       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 2.7471)  20.0000( 3.4667)  20.0000( 3.4667)  20.0000( 3.4667)  20.0000( 3.4667)
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT          STRONG_RECENT
   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.81      18.85  (  6)      4      18.85  (  6)  18.8519( 1.2562)  19.8737( 1.9783)  19.9720( 1.6835)  17.6595( 1.2813)  18.1175( 1.3433)
   3  (NFC NORTH)             =  21.28      21.14  (  3)      4      21.15  (  3)  21.1361( 2.9778)  21.4802( 1.4720)  21.7585( 1.6959)  20.6167( 5.0394)  20.5530( 5.9040)
   7  (NFC SOUTH)             =  18.74      18.62  (  8)      4      18.63  (  8)  18.6240( 1.4530)  17.9429( 0.7833)  17.7163( 0.6560)  19.5562( 2.4262)  19.2834( 1.9880)
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  22.44      22.19  (  1)      4      22.22  (  1)  22.1870( 2.9477)  21.8877( 5.5125)  21.8394( 5.1673)  22.5614( 2.4179)  21.9871( 2.2535)
   5  (afc east)              =  18.85      18.89  (  5)      4      18.88  (  5)  18.8862( 3.2221)  18.3415( 5.8374)  18.4251( 6.0937)  18.8286( 2.2379)  19.4298( 2.0988)
   4  (afc north)             =  20.15      20.21  (  4)      4      20.20  (  4)  20.2052( 1.6976)  19.9690( 3.9532)  20.2870( 3.0177)  20.1801( 1.3448)  20.3763( 1.1773)
   8  (afc south)             =  18.48      18.69  (  7)      4      18.64  (  7)  18.6914( 4.1899)  19.3735( 3.4465)  18.5670( 3.5569)  18.8125( 6.4158)  18.8972( 5.6524)
   2  (afc west)              =  21.51      21.42  (  2)      4      21.43  (  2)  21.4183( 2.6194)  21.1315( 2.5068)  21.4346( 2.8216)  21.7850( 3.5512)  21.3557( 4.9973)
       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 2.7471)  20.0000( 3.4667)  20.0000( 3.4667)  20.0000( 3.4667)  20.0000( 3.4667)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.81
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
  14  Dallas Cowboys          =  20.42    1   2   0   19.26(  22)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   22.14   10 |   21.08   15 |   19.32   18 |   19.58   19  (NFC EAST)
  18  Philadelphia Eagles     =  19.25    2   1   0   19.31(  21)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   20.89   15 |   21.72   13 |   17.23   25 |   16.43   28  (NFC EAST)
  23  Washington Redskins     =  18.20    1   2   0   21.71(   6)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   18.55   20 |   18.30   23 |   17.83   23 |   18.68   20  (NFC EAST)
  27  New York Giants         =  17.55    2   1   0   18.37(  27)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   17.92   26 |   18.79   21 |   16.26   28 |   17.77   23  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   3  (NFC NORTH)             =  21.28
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
   4  Chicago Bears           =  23.89    2   1   0   20.12(  13)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   23.08    8 |   22.86    7 |   25.38    3 |   25.27    4  (NFC NORTH)
   6  Minnesota Vikings       =  23.23    3   0   0   20.56(  10)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   21.90   12 |   22.82    8 |   24.11    5 |   25.65    3  (NFC NORTH)
  15  Detroit Lions           =  19.90    2   1   0   18.59(  26)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   21.40   14 |   22.08   11 |   18.38   20 |   17.66   24  (NFC NORTH)
  28  Green Bay Packers       =  17.52    1   2   0   19.35(  19)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   19.54   18 |   19.27   18 |   14.60   31 |   13.63   32  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   7  (NFC SOUTH)             =  18.74
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
  16  Carolina Panthers       =  19.87    1   2   0   20.47(  11)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   18.47   21 |   18.21   24 |   21.79    9 |   20.62   15  (NFC SOUTH)
  17  New Orleans Saints      =  19.63    1   2   0   21.64(   7)   1  0  0 |   1  2  0 |   18.25   24 |   18.33   22 |   20.87   14 |   21.36    9  (NFC SOUTH)
  21  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  18.29    0   3   0   20.44(  12)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   18.28   23 |   17.33   26 |   19.30   19 |   17.58   26  (NFC SOUTH)
  29  Atlanta Falcons         =  16.71    1   2   0   19.39(  18)   0  0  0 |   0  1  0 |   16.78   27 |   16.99   27 |   16.26   27 |   17.58   25  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  22.44
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
   1  San Francisco 49ers     =  24.82    3   0   0   17.39(  31)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   24.05    4 |   24.67    3 |   25.67    2 |   25.03    5  (NFC WEST)
   5  Seattle Seahawks        =  23.45    2   1   0   19.83(  15)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   24.65    3 |   24.15    5 |   23.04    7 |   22.09    7  (NFC WEST)
   7  Los Angeles Rams        =  22.48    1   2   0   21.73(   5)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   25.20    1 |   24.44    4 |   21.56   10 |   19.70   17  (NFC WEST)
  25  Arizona Cardinals       =  18.01    1   2   0   22.75(   4)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   13.65   31 |   14.09   31 |   19.98   16 |   21.13   12  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   5  (afc east)              =  18.85
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
   9  Buffalo Bills           =  22.07    3   0   0   18.04(  29)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   24.68    2 |   25.29    1 |   19.89   17 |   21.31   10  (afc east)
  12  New England Patriots    =  21.25    1   2   0   23.00(   3)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   21.58   13 |   21.58   14 |   21.30   11 |   20.32   16  (afc east)
  30  New York Jets           =  16.29    1   2   0   17.87(  30)   0  0  0 |   0  1  0 |   15.26   28 |   14.84   29 |   16.18   30 |   19.63   18  (afc east)
  31  Miami Dolphins          =  15.94    0   3   0   24.00(   1)   0  2  0 |   0  3  0 |   11.85   32 |   11.99   32 |   17.95   22 |   16.46   27  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   4  (afc north)             =  20.15
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
  10  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.01    2   1   0   19.32(  20)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   23.84    6 |   23.25    6 |   20.98   13 |   20.66   14  (afc north)
  11  Cincinnati Bengals      =  21.29    2   1   0   19.11(  23)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   22.24    9 |   21.91   12 |   20.44   15 |   21.20   11  (afc north)
  19  Cleveland Browns        =  18.76    2   1   0   21.47(   8)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   14.92   30 |   16.35   28 |   21.09   12 |   21.00   13  (afc north)
  20  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  18.75    2   1   0   19.08(  24)   0  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   18.88   19 |   19.64   16 |   18.21   21 |   18.64   21  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   8  (afc south)             =  18.48
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
   2  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  24.37    2   1   0   20.11(  14)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   23.36    7 |   22.72   10 |   28.10    1 |   27.11    1  (afc south)
  22  Houston Texans          =  18.22    0   3   0   19.74(  16)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   20.54   16 |   19.35   17 |   16.20   29 |   15.58   29  (afc south)
  26  Indianapolis Colts      =  17.91    1   2   0   20.76(   9)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   18.39   22 |   18.08   25 |   17.51   24 |   18.10   22  (afc south)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  14.27    0   3   0   17.02(  32)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   15.20   29 |   14.11   30 |   13.45   32 |   14.80   30  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   2  (afc west)              =  21.51
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.03]                                                   [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]       [  2.03]
   3  Kansas City Chiefs      =  24.24    3   0   0   18.09(  28)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   23.99    5 |   24.76    2 |   24.28    4 |   23.93    6  (afc west)
   8  Denver Broncos          =  22.45    2   1   0   23.00(   2)   2  1  0 |   2  1  0 |   22.10   11 |   22.79    9 |   22.96    8 |   21.52    8  (afc west)
  13  Las Vegas Raiders       =  20.94    3   0   0   18.60(  25)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   18.12   25 |   19.16   19 |   23.38    6 |   25.66    2  (afc west)
  24  Los Angeles Chargers    =  18.05    0   3   0   19.63(  17)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   20.31   17 |   19.02   20 |   16.52   26 |   14.31   31  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                      These are the "regular method".                                                           _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                                                  _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                                       _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite                         _
                                                            Strong                   MONEYLINE=odds to 100                      _
          FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG                ODDS   PCT%                 TOTAL   _
====================================================================================================================================


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.03   2.03   2.03   2.03   2.03

          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG                MONEY  WIN%    home   away  TOTAL  HMARG WIN% MONEY
    1   @ Cleveland Browns       2.04  -1.93  -1.26   4.92   4.39   Pittsburgh Steelers      131    57%   24.60  17.89  42.50   6.71  70%   234
    2   @ New York Giants        1.58   6.30   6.73  -1.69  -1.32   Arizona Cardinals        123    55%   20.70  21.58  42.28  -0.87  47%  -112
    3     Los Angeles Rams       1.19   2.27   0.68   2.29   1.23 @ Philadelphia Eagles      117    54%   18.84  23.89  42.73  -5.05  34%  -191
    4   @ Baltimore Ravens       9.78  10.67  11.17   9.57   7.90   Tennessee Titans         335    77%   27.89  14.75  42.64  13.14  83%   487
    5 N @ Washington Redskins    0.29   0.16   0.21   0.32   0.57   Indianapolis Colts       104    51%   23.77  22.37  46.14   1.40  55%   120
    6   @ Buffalo Bills          2.85   5.14   5.74   0.63   3.02   New England Patriots     145    59%   21.45  22.57  44.02  -1.12  46%  -116
    7   @ Carolina Panthers      1.99  -0.90  -1.83   5.45   4.99   Detroit Lions            130    57%   25.52  21.98  47.50   3.54  61%   158
    8   @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers   2.81   0.77   0.09   6.74   5.98   Green Bay Packers        144    59%   25.64  20.84  46.48   4.80  65%   186
    9     Jacksonville Jaguars   1.04  -0.92  -1.22   5.62   3.87 @ Cincinnati Bengals       115    53%   21.25  24.62  45.86  -3.37  39%  -155
   10   @ Chicago Bears          9.64   9.86  10.05  11.24   7.68   New York Jets            330    77%   27.30  14.63  41.92  12.67  82%   463

          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG                MONEY  WIN%    home   away  TOTAL  HMARG WIN% MONEY
   11   @ Minnesota Vikings      9.32  12.08  12.87   8.20  11.23   Miami Dolphins           318    76%   21.57  18.35  39.92   3.23  60%   152
   12     Dallas Cowboys         0.16  -0.44  -0.30   1.08   1.97 @ Houston Texans           102    51%   21.90  20.52  42.42   1.38  55%   120
   13     Kansas City Chiefs     1.26   3.84   3.56  -1.13  -3.77 @ Las Vegas Raiders        118    54%   22.56  21.62  44.19   0.94  53%   113
   14   @ San Francisco 49ers    4.40   3.98   3.91   4.74   5.54   Denver Broncos           177    64%   22.77  21.97  44.74   0.80  53%   111
   15   @ Seattle Seahawks       7.43   6.37   7.17   8.55   9.82   Los Angeles Chargers     255    72%   22.88  17.21  40.08   5.67  67%   206
   16   @ New Orleans Saints     4.96   3.51   3.37   6.65   5.81   Atlanta Falcons          189    65%   25.64  16.01  41.66   9.63  77%   329
EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM
NFL 2026 ratings through games of September 28 Monday - Week 3
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.03   2.03   2.03   2.03   2.03

          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG                MONEY  WIN%    home   away  TOTAL  HMARG WIN% MONEY
    1   @ Cleveland Browns      12.70   8.74   9.41  15.58  15.06   Pittsburgh Steelers      465    82%   29.94  12.56  42.50  17.37  88%   765
    2     Arizona Cardinals      3.97  -0.76  -1.18   7.23   6.87 @ New York Giants          167    63%   17.93  24.35  42.28  -6.42  31%  -226
    3     Los Angeles Rams       1.33   2.41   0.82   2.43   1.36 @ Philadelphia Eagles      119    54%   18.77  23.96  42.73  -5.19  34%  -195
    4   @ Baltimore Ravens       6.60   7.49   7.99   6.39   4.72   Tennessee Titans         231    70%   26.30  16.34  42.64   9.96  77%   342
    5 N @ Washington Redskins    1.04   0.91   0.96   1.07   1.32   Indianapolis Colts       115    53%   24.14  22.00  46.14   2.15  57%   132
    6   @ Buffalo Bills         12.12  14.41  15.02   9.90  12.29   New England Patriots     436    81%   26.08  17.94  44.02   8.15  74%   277
    7     Detroit Lions          0.55   3.44   4.38  -2.90  -2.44 @ Carolina Panthers        108    52%   24.25  23.26  47.50   0.99  53%   114
    8   @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers   4.15   2.12   1.44   8.09   7.33   Green Bay Packers        171    63%   26.31  20.16  46.48   6.15  69%   219
    9     Jacksonville Jaguars   0.55  -1.41  -1.72   5.13   3.38 @ Cincinnati Bengals       107    52%   21.49  24.37  45.86  -2.88  41%  -146
   10   @ Chicago Bears          8.28   8.49   8.69   9.88   6.32   New York Jets            282    74%   26.62  15.31  41.92  11.31  80%   398

          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG                MONEY  WIN%    home   away  TOTAL  HMARG WIN% MONEY
   11   @ Minnesota Vikings     30.72  33.48  34.27  29.60  32.63   Miami Dolphins          2446    96%   32.27   7.65  39.92  24.63  94%  1531
   12     Dallas Cowboys         3.52   2.92   3.06   4.44   5.33 @ Houston Texans           158    61%   20.22  22.20  42.42  -1.98  44%  -130
   13   @ Las Vegas Raiders      3.88   1.30   1.58   6.27   8.91   Kansas City Chiefs       165    62%   25.13  19.05  44.19   6.08  68%   217
   14   @ San Francisco 49ers   15.81  15.39  15.31  16.15  16.94   Denver Broncos           649    87%   28.47  16.27  44.74  12.21  81%   440
   15   @ Seattle Seahawks      15.12  14.06  14.86  16.24  17.51   Los Angeles Chargers     604    86%   26.72  13.36  40.08  13.36  83%   499
   16     Atlanta Falcons        1.87   3.32   3.46   0.18   1.02 @ New Orleans Saints       128    56%   22.23  19.43  41.66   2.80  59%   144

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1  @ Cleveland Browns       1.87   128   56%    Pittsburgh Steelers
    2  @ New York Giants        4.79   185   65%    Arizona Cardinals
    3  @ Philadelphia Eagles    3.05   149   60%    Los Angeles Rams
    4  @ Baltimore Ravens      10.63   369   79%    Tennessee Titans
    5 N@ Washington Redskins    0.67   109   52%    Indianapolis Colts
    6  @ Buffalo Bills          9.39   320   76%    New England Patriots
    7  @ Carolina Panthers      0.84   112   53%    Detroit Lions
    8  @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers   0.30   104   51%    Green Bay Packers
    9  @ Cincinnati Bengals     0.44   106   51%    Jacksonville Jaguars
   10  @ Chicago Bears          6.21   220   69%    New York Jets
   11  @ Minnesota Vikings     18.51   854   90%    Miami Dolphins
   12    Dallas Cowboys         3.51   158   61%  @ Houston Texans
   13  @ Las Vegas Raiders      2.36   136   58%    Kansas City Chiefs
   14  @ San Francisco 49ers    9.71   332   77%    Denver Broncos
   15  @ Seattle Seahawks      13.31   496   83%    Los Angeles Chargers
   16  @ New Orleans Saints     3.41   156   61%    Atlanta Falcons
endfile

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