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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2026 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2025 Ratings through results of 2026 JANUARY 4 SUNDAY - WEEK 18 - END OF REGULAR SEASON


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
   1  Seattle Seahawks        =  27.90   14   3   0   20.44(  10)   4  2  0 |   6  2  0 |   27.22    1 |   27.19    1 |   30.20    1 |   33.88    1  (NFC WEST)
   2  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.26   12   5   0   21.03(   4)   5  3  0 |   6  3  0 |   27.13    2 |   26.68    2 |   28.11    3 |   30.18    3  (NFC WEST)
   3  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  25.89   13   4   0   19.84(  24)   3  3  0 |   4  3  0 |   25.43    3 |   24.74    6 |   28.45    2 |   32.59    2  (afc south)
   4  Houston Texans          =  25.39   12   5   0   21.05(   3)   3  4  0 |   5  4  0 |   25.00    6 |   25.63    3 |   25.55    5 |   26.71    5  (afc south)
   5  New England Patriots    =  24.88   14   3   0   16.82(  32)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   25.00    5 |   24.16    8 |   25.56    4 |   28.88    4  (afc east)
   6  Buffalo Bills           =  24.66   12   5   0   18.49(  30)   1  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   25.39    4 |   25.32    5 |   23.48    7 |   23.91    7  (afc east)
   7  San Francisco 49ers     =  23.94   12   5   0   20.60(   7)   2  4  0 |   3  4  0 |   23.44   11 |   23.83    9 |   24.59    6 |   25.57    6  (NFC WEST)
   8  Denver Broncos          =  23.89   14   3   0   18.43(  31)   2  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   23.59   10 |   25.37    4 |   22.95    8 |   23.67    8  (afc west)
   9  Philadelphia Eagles     =  23.38   11   6   0   19.98(  20)   3  1  0 |   5  3  0 |   24.49    7 |   24.70    7 |   21.42   13 |   20.86   15  (NFC EAST)
  10  Detroit Lions           =  23.09    9   8   0   20.50(   8)   0  2  0 |   3  7  0 |   24.07    8 |   23.54   10 |   21.81   10 |   20.45   16  (NFC NORTH)
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
  11  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.74    8   9   0   20.32(  13)   0  5  0 |   3  7  0 |   23.80    9 |   22.91   11 |   21.62   12 |   21.54   12  (afc north)
  12  Chicago Bears           =  21.93   11   6   0   19.85(  23)   1  3  0 |   4  6  0 |   21.96   14 |   21.99   13 |   21.80   11 |   22.83    9  (NFC NORTH)
  13  Minnesota Vikings       =  21.53    9   8   0   20.48(   9)   2  2  0 |   4  7  0 |   22.22   12 |   21.37   15 |   20.99   14 |   21.89   10  (NFC NORTH)
  14  Green Bay Packers       =  21.36    9   7   1   20.07(  18)   2  2  0 |   5  5  0 |   21.97   13 |   22.85   12 |   19.39   18 |   18.08   19  (NFC NORTH)
  15  Los Angeles Chargers    =  21.13   11   6   0   19.41(  26)   2  3  0 |   4  3  0 |   21.04   16 |   21.63   14 |   20.69   15 |   21.25   13  (afc west)
  16  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.99   10   7   0   20.38(  11)   2  2  0 |   5  5  0 |   20.98   17 |   21.31   16 |   20.64   16 |   21.24   14  (afc north)
  17  Indianapolis Colts      =  20.92    8   9   0   21.02(   5)   1  7  0 |   2  8  0 |   20.66   18 |   20.00   18 |   22.12    9 |   21.85   11  (afc south)
  18  Kansas City Chiefs      =  20.52    6  11   0   20.05(  19)   1  6  0 |   2  8  0 |   21.78   15 |   21.12   17 |   18.66   19 |   15.89   24  (afc west)
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  18.44    8   9   0   20.27(  15)   3  5  0 |   3  5  0 |   18.33   20 |   19.56   19 |   17.32   24 |   15.01   26  (NFC SOUTH)
  20  Cincinnati Bengals      =  18.27    6  11   0   20.37(  12)   1  4  0 |   3  9  0 |   18.68   19 |   18.45   20 |   17.63   21 |   17.11   22  (afc north)
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
  21  Atlanta Falcons         =  18.23    8   9   0   19.42(  25)   2  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   17.17   23 |   17.82   22 |   19.55   17 |   19.96   18  (NFC SOUTH)
  22  Washington Redskins     =  17.03    5  12   0   20.09(  16)   1  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   17.41   22 |   18.09   21 |   15.23   28 |   13.08   28  (NFC EAST)
  23  New York Giants         =  17.02    4  13   0   20.32(  14)   1  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   17.74   21 |   15.50   25 |   17.56   23 |   18.03   20  (NFC EAST)
  24  Carolina Panthers       =  16.80    8   9   0   19.94(  21)   1  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   15.92   25 |   16.78   23 |   17.58   22 |   17.50   21  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  Dallas Cowboys          =  16.16    7   9   1   19.07(  29)   1  3  0 |   1  6  1 |   16.22   24 |   16.27   24 |   15.94   26 |   15.40   25  (NFC EAST)
  26  New Orleans Saints      =  16.02    6  11   0   19.30(  27)   0  5  0 |   0  6  0 |   14.55   28 |   13.90   29 |   18.48   20 |   20.33   17  (NFC SOUTH)
  27  Cleveland Browns        =  15.27    5  12   0   19.87(  22)   0  4  0 |   2  9  0 |   14.88   26 |   14.56   28 |   16.19   25 |   16.40   23  (afc north)
  28  Miami Dolphins          =  14.97    7  10   0   19.20(  28)   1  3  0 |   1  6  0 |   14.57   27 |   15.48   26 |   14.78   29 |   14.05   27  (afc east)
  29  Arizona Cardinals       =  14.81    3  14   0   21.85(   2)   0  8  0 |   0  9  0 |   14.37   29 |   14.61   27 |   15.34   27 |   12.55   30  (NFC WEST)
  30  Tennessee Titans        =  13.12    3  14   0   21.86(   1)   0  9  0 |   0 10  0 |   12.34   31 |   11.96   31 |   14.45   30 |   12.72   29  (afc south)
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.32    3  14   0   20.69(   6)   1  5  0 |   1  8  0 |   12.56   30 |   12.37   30 |   11.96   31 |   10.12   31  (afc west)
  32  New York Jets           =  10.13    3  14   0   20.09(  17)   0  6  0 |   0  8  0 |   10.06   32 |   10.33   32 |    9.96   32 |    6.43   32  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  24.19      23.48  (  1)      4      23.74  (  1)  23.4770( 6.0354)  23.0408( 6.0412)  23.0756( 5.8380)  24.5622( 6.5673)
   2  (afc south)             =  21.94      21.33  (  3)      4      21.53  (  3)  21.3308( 5.9140)  20.8571( 6.0708)  20.5827( 6.2577)  22.6403( 6.0450)
   3  (NFC NORTH)             =  21.89      21.98  (  2)      4      21.98  (  2)  21.9762( 0.7774)  22.5545( 1.0141)  22.4369( 0.9505)  20.9974( 1.1356)
   4  (afc west)              =  19.92      19.46  (  4)      4      19.62  (  4)  19.4648( 4.9831)  19.7424( 4.9065)  20.1232( 5.5043)  18.5664( 4.7378)
   5  (afc north)             =  19.42      19.32  (  5)      4      19.33  (  5)  19.3182( 3.2645)  19.5865( 3.7743)  19.3055( 3.6643)  19.0195( 2.5401)
   6  (afc east)              =  19.05      18.66  (  6)      4      18.76  (  6)  18.6616( 7.3270)  18.7565( 7.6607)  18.8213( 7.1674)  18.4441( 7.3370)
   7  (NFC EAST)              =  17.94      18.40  (  7)      4      18.33  (  7)  18.3984( 3.3489)  18.9692( 3.7404)  18.6402( 4.1831)  17.5393( 2.7630)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  17.42      17.37  (  8)      4      17.37  (  8)  17.3729( 1.1601)  16.4930( 1.6236)  17.0148( 2.3727)  18.2308( 1.0092)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.5448)  20.0000( 4.7201)  20.0000( 4.7201)  20.0000( 4.7201)

      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   7  (NFC EAST)              =  17.94      18.40  (  7)      4      18.33  (  7)  18.3984( 3.3489)  18.9692( 3.7404)  18.6402( 4.1831)  17.5393( 2.7630)
   3  (NFC NORTH)             =  21.89      21.98  (  2)      4      21.98  (  2)  21.9762( 0.7774)  22.5545( 1.0141)  22.4369( 0.9505)  20.9974( 1.1356)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  17.42      17.37  (  8)      4      17.37  (  8)  17.3729( 1.1601)  16.4930( 1.6236)  17.0148( 2.3727)  18.2308( 1.0092)
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  24.19      23.48  (  1)      4      23.74  (  1)  23.4770( 6.0354)  23.0408( 6.0412)  23.0756( 5.8380)  24.5622( 6.5673)
   6  (afc east)              =  19.05      18.66  (  6)      4      18.76  (  6)  18.6616( 7.3270)  18.7565( 7.6607)  18.8213( 7.1674)  18.4441( 7.3370)
   5  (afc north)             =  19.42      19.32  (  5)      4      19.33  (  5)  19.3182( 3.2645)  19.5865( 3.7743)  19.3055( 3.6643)  19.0195( 2.5401)
   2  (afc south)             =  21.94      21.33  (  3)      4      21.53  (  3)  21.3308( 5.9140)  20.8571( 6.0708)  20.5827( 6.2577)  22.6403( 6.0450)
   4  (afc west)              =  19.92      19.46  (  4)      4      19.62  (  4)  19.4648( 4.9831)  19.7424( 4.9065)  20.1232( 5.5043)  18.5664( 4.7378)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.5448)  20.0000( 4.7201)  20.0000( 4.7201)  20.0000( 4.7201)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (NFC EAST)              =  17.94
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
   9  Philadelphia Eagles     =  23.38   11   6   0   19.98(  20)   3  1  0 |   5  3  0 |   24.49    7 |   24.70    7 |   21.42   13 |   20.86   15  (NFC EAST)
  22  Washington Redskins     =  17.03    5  12   0   20.09(  16)   1  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   17.41   22 |   18.09   21 |   15.23   28 |   13.08   28  (NFC EAST)
  23  New York Giants         =  17.02    4  13   0   20.32(  14)   1  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   17.74   21 |   15.50   25 |   17.56   23 |   18.03   20  (NFC EAST)
  25  Dallas Cowboys          =  16.16    7   9   1   19.07(  29)   1  3  0 |   1  6  1 |   16.22   24 |   16.27   24 |   15.94   26 |   15.40   25  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (NFC NORTH)             =  21.89
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
  10  Detroit Lions           =  23.09    9   8   0   20.50(   8)   0  2  0 |   3  7  0 |   24.07    8 |   23.54   10 |   21.81   10 |   20.45   16  (NFC NORTH)
  12  Chicago Bears           =  21.93   11   6   0   19.85(  23)   1  3  0 |   4  6  0 |   21.96   14 |   21.99   13 |   21.80   11 |   22.83    9  (NFC NORTH)
  13  Minnesota Vikings       =  21.53    9   8   0   20.48(   9)   2  2  0 |   4  7  0 |   22.22   12 |   21.37   15 |   20.99   14 |   21.89   10  (NFC NORTH)
  14  Green Bay Packers       =  21.36    9   7   1   20.07(  18)   2  2  0 |   5  5  0 |   21.97   13 |   22.85   12 |   19.39   18 |   18.08   19  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  17.42
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  18.44    8   9   0   20.27(  15)   3  5  0 |   3  5  0 |   18.33   20 |   19.56   19 |   17.32   24 |   15.01   26  (NFC SOUTH)
  21  Atlanta Falcons         =  18.23    8   9   0   19.42(  25)   2  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   17.17   23 |   17.82   22 |   19.55   17 |   19.96   18  (NFC SOUTH)
  24  Carolina Panthers       =  16.80    8   9   0   19.94(  21)   1  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   15.92   25 |   16.78   23 |   17.58   22 |   17.50   21  (NFC SOUTH)
  26  New Orleans Saints      =  16.02    6  11   0   19.30(  27)   0  5  0 |   0  6  0 |   14.55   28 |   13.90   29 |   18.48   20 |   20.33   17  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  24.19
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
   1  Seattle Seahawks        =  27.90   14   3   0   20.44(  10)   4  2  0 |   6  2  0 |   27.22    1 |   27.19    1 |   30.20    1 |   33.88    1  (NFC WEST)
   2  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.26   12   5   0   21.03(   4)   5  3  0 |   6  3  0 |   27.13    2 |   26.68    2 |   28.11    3 |   30.18    3  (NFC WEST)
   7  San Francisco 49ers     =  23.94   12   5   0   20.60(   7)   2  4  0 |   3  4  0 |   23.44   11 |   23.83    9 |   24.59    6 |   25.57    6  (NFC WEST)
  29  Arizona Cardinals       =  14.81    3  14   0   21.85(   2)   0  8  0 |   0  9  0 |   14.37   29 |   14.61   27 |   15.34   27 |   12.55   30  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (afc east)              =  19.05
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
   5  New England Patriots    =  24.88   14   3   0   16.82(  32)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   25.00    5 |   24.16    8 |   25.56    4 |   28.88    4  (afc east)
   6  Buffalo Bills           =  24.66   12   5   0   18.49(  30)   1  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   25.39    4 |   25.32    5 |   23.48    7 |   23.91    7  (afc east)
  28  Miami Dolphins          =  14.97    7  10   0   19.20(  28)   1  3  0 |   1  6  0 |   14.57   27 |   15.48   26 |   14.78   29 |   14.05   27  (afc east)
  32  New York Jets           =  10.13    3  14   0   20.09(  17)   0  6  0 |   0  8  0 |   10.06   32 |   10.33   32 |    9.96   32 |    6.43   32  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (afc north)             =  19.42
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
  11  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.74    8   9   0   20.32(  13)   0  5  0 |   3  7  0 |   23.80    9 |   22.91   11 |   21.62   12 |   21.54   12  (afc north)
  16  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.99   10   7   0   20.38(  11)   2  2  0 |   5  5  0 |   20.98   17 |   21.31   16 |   20.64   16 |   21.24   14  (afc north)
  20  Cincinnati Bengals      =  18.27    6  11   0   20.37(  12)   1  4  0 |   3  9  0 |   18.68   19 |   18.45   20 |   17.63   21 |   17.11   22  (afc north)
  27  Cleveland Browns        =  15.27    5  12   0   19.87(  22)   0  4  0 |   2  9  0 |   14.88   26 |   14.56   28 |   16.19   25 |   16.40   23  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (afc south)             =  21.94
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
   3  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  25.89   13   4   0   19.84(  24)   3  3  0 |   4  3  0 |   25.43    3 |   24.74    6 |   28.45    2 |   32.59    2  (afc south)
   4  Houston Texans          =  25.39   12   5   0   21.05(   3)   3  4  0 |   5  4  0 |   25.00    6 |   25.63    3 |   25.55    5 |   26.71    5  (afc south)
  17  Indianapolis Colts      =  20.92    8   9   0   21.02(   5)   1  7  0 |   2  8  0 |   20.66   18 |   20.00   18 |   22.12    9 |   21.85   11  (afc south)
  30  Tennessee Titans        =  13.12    3  14   0   21.86(   1)   0  9  0 |   0 10  0 |   12.34   31 |   11.96   31 |   14.45   30 |   12.72   29  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc west)              =  19.92
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.96]                                                   [  2.00]       [  2.00]       [  1.86]       [  1.86]
   8  Denver Broncos          =  23.89   14   3   0   18.43(  31)   2  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   23.59   10 |   25.37    4 |   22.95    8 |   23.67    8  (afc west)
  15  Los Angeles Chargers    =  21.13   11   6   0   19.41(  26)   2  3  0 |   4  3  0 |   21.04   16 |   21.63   14 |   20.69   15 |   21.25   13  (afc west)
  18  Kansas City Chiefs      =  20.52    6  11   0   20.05(  19)   1  6  0 |   2  8  0 |   21.78   15 |   21.12   17 |   18.66   19 |   15.89   24  (afc west)
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.32    3  14   0   20.69(   6)   1  5  0 |   1  8  0 |   12.56   30 |   12.37   30 |   11.96   31 |   10.12   31  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                      These are the "regular method".                                                           _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                                                  _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                                       _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite                         _
                                                            Strong                   MONEYLINE=odds to 100                      _
          FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG                ODDS   PCT%                 TOTAL   _
====================================================================================================================================


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  1.96   2.00   2.00   1.86   1.86
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1     Los Angeles Rams       8.50   9.21   7.90   8.67  10.81 @ Carolina Panthers        302    75%   15.59  29.39  44.98
    2   @ Chicago Bears          2.52   1.99   1.15   4.27   6.61   Green Bay Packers        141    59%   23.49  22.72  46.21
    3   @ Jacksonville Jaguars   3.19   2.04   1.42   6.83  10.54   Buffalo Bills            154    61%   28.03  21.45  49.48
    4   @ Philadelphia Eagles    1.40   3.06   2.87  -1.31  -2.84   San Francisco 49ers      121    55%   20.55  22.50  43.05
    5   @ New England Patriots   5.71   5.96   4.52   6.73   9.49   Los Angeles Chargers     214    68%   26.09  19.27  45.36
    6     Houston Texans         2.45   2.01   2.31   3.05   3.60 @ Pittsburgh Steelers      140    58%   18.74  23.58  42.32

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM
NFL 2025 through games of 2026 January 4 Sunday - Week 18 - End of Regular Season
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  1.96   2.00   2.00   1.86   1.86
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1     Los Angeles Rams      12.08  12.78  11.47  12.24  14.39 @ Carolina Panthers        460    82%   15.59  29.39  44.98
    2   @ Chicago Bears          8.44   7.91   7.06  10.18  12.53   Green Bay Packers        300    75%   23.49  22.72  46.21
    3   @ Jacksonville Jaguars  12.83  11.68  11.06  16.47  20.18   Buffalo Bills            501    83%   28.03  21.45  49.48
    4     San Francisco 49ers    5.49   3.83   4.02   8.20   9.74 @ Philadelphia Eagles      208    68%   20.55  22.50  43.05
    5   @ New England Patriots  10.47  10.73   9.29  11.50  14.26   Los Angeles Chargers     382    79%   26.09  19.27  45.36
    6     Houston Texans         3.79   3.35   3.65   4.39   4.94 @ Pittsburgh Steelers      167    63%   18.74  23.58  42.32

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1    Los Angeles Rams       9.66   347   78%  @ Carolina Panthers
    2  @ Chicago Bears          2.20   135   57%    Green Bay Packers
    3  @ Jacksonville Jaguars   3.68   165   62%    Buffalo Bills
    4  @ Philadelphia Eagles    1.47   122   55%    San Francisco 49ers
    5  @ New England Patriots   6.13   225   69%    Los Angeles Chargers
    6    Houston Texans         2.55   141   59%  @ Pittsburgh Steelers
endfile

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