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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2025 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2025 Ratings through results of 2025 DECEMBER 22 MONDAY - WEEK 16


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
   1  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.44   11   4   0   21.47(   3)   5  3  0 |   6  3  0 |   27.76    1 |   27.02    1 |   28.39    1 |   31.72    1  (NFC WEST)
   2  Seattle Seahawks        =  26.39   12   3   0   19.96(  18)   3  2  0 |   4  2  0 |   26.70    2 |   26.14    2 |   27.01    2 |   30.27    2  (NFC WEST)
   3  Philadelphia Eagles     =  25.39   10   5   0   20.19(  16)   3  1  0 |   4  3  0 |   25.29    3 |   25.23    3 |   26.27    3 |   26.27    4  (NFC EAST)
   4  Buffalo Bills           =  24.71   11   4   0   18.58(  30)   0  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   24.66    6 |   25.06    4 |   24.89    6 |   24.75   10  (afc east)
   5  Houston Texans          =  24.50   10   5   0   20.99(   7)   3  4  0 |   5  4  0 |   25.06    4 |   25.02    5 |   23.94    8 |   25.09    9  (afc south)
   6  Detroit Lions           =  24.47    8   7   0   20.54(  12)   0  4  0 |   2  6  0 |   24.98    5 |   23.95   10 |   25.02    5 |   23.87   12  (NFC NORTH)
   7  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  24.37   11   4   0   20.32(  14)   3  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   24.42    7 |   24.02    8 |   25.19    4 |   28.70    3  (afc south)
   8  Green Bay Packers       =  24.02    9   5   1   19.89(  19)   2  2  0 |   4  3  0 |   23.74    9 |   24.38    7 |   24.37    7 |   24.23   11  (NFC NORTH)
   9  San Francisco 49ers     =  23.74   11   4   0   19.63(  22)   2  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   23.82    8 |   23.97    9 |   23.80   10 |   25.72    6  (NFC WEST)
  10  Denver Broncos          =  23.18   12   3   0   18.57(  31)   3  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   22.56   13 |   24.40    6 |   23.04   14 |   22.76   14  (afc west)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
  11  New England Patriots    =  23.00   12   3   0   17.13(  32)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   22.69   11 |   22.79   11 |   23.93    9 |   26.06    5  (afc east)
  12  Kansas City Chiefs      =  22.67    6   9   0   20.56(  11)   1  5  0 |   2  7  0 |   23.26   10 |   22.13   14 |   22.96   15 |   21.08   16  (afc west)
  13  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.57    7   8   0   19.77(  21)   0  4  0 |   1  7  0 |   22.63   12 |   22.13   15 |   23.29   13 |   22.34   15  (afc north)
  14  Los Angeles Chargers    =  22.51   11   4   0   18.98(  28)   2  1  0 |   5  1  0 |   22.07   14 |   22.36   13 |   23.47   12 |   25.48    7  (afc west)
  15  Chicago Bears           =  22.51   11   4   0   19.46(  23)   2  2  0 |   3  3  0 |   21.91   15 |   22.39   12 |   23.63   11 |   25.22    8  (NFC NORTH)
  16  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  21.66    9   6   0   20.58(   9)   1  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   21.36   17 |   21.65   16 |   22.18   16 |   23.30   13  (afc north)
  17  Indianapolis Colts      =  20.93    8   7   0   20.37(  13)   1  5  0 |   2  7  0 |   21.51   16 |   20.78   17 |   20.58   17 |   20.90   17  (afc south)
  18  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.95    7   8   0   20.79(   8)   1  3  0 |   2  7  0 |   20.24   18 |   19.96   18 |   19.62   18 |   18.81   18  (NFC NORTH)
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  18.84    7   8   0   20.57(  10)   3  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   18.91   19 |   19.94   19 |   17.33   22 |   15.18   23  (NFC SOUTH)
  20  Cincinnati Bengals      =  17.80    5  10   0   21.27(   5)   1  4  0 |   3  8  0 |   17.53   20 |   18.02   20 |   17.63   19 |   16.65   20  (afc north)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
  21  Washington Redskins     =  17.44    4  11   0   20.32(  15)   0  5  0 |   1  7  0 |   16.88   22 |   17.81   21 |   17.36   21 |   14.33   26  (NFC EAST)
  22  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.16    6   9   0   19.11(  26)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   16.48   23 |   17.16   23 |   17.56   20 |   17.82   19  (NFC SOUTH)
  23  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.00    6   8   1   19.81(  20)   1  3  1 |   2  5  1 |   16.98   21 |   16.69   24 |   17.02   23 |   16.60   21  (NFC EAST)
  24  Carolina Panthers       =  16.69    8   7   0   19.24(  25)   2  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   16.26   24 |   17.29   22 |   16.09   24 |   16.45   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  Arizona Cardinals       =  15.42    3  12   0   21.23(   6)   0  8  0 |   0  8  0 |   15.90   25 |   15.89   25 |   13.69   28 |   11.49   30  (NFC WEST)
  26  Miami Dolphins          =  15.21    6   9   0   18.70(  29)   1  1  0 |   1  5  0 |   15.14   27 |   15.43   26 |   14.55   26 |   14.37   25  (afc east)
  27  New York Giants         =  14.84    2  13   0   21.66(   2)   1  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.40   26 |   13.89   27 |   14.55   25 |   13.44   27  (NFC EAST)
  28  New Orleans Saints      =  14.13    5  10   0   19.33(  24)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   14.07   28 |   13.66   28 |   14.03   27 |   15.12   24  (NFC SOUTH)
  29  Cleveland Browns        =  13.64    3  12   0   20.11(  17)   1  3  0 |   1  8  0 |   13.68   30 |   13.47   29 |   13.10   29 |   11.63   29  (afc north)
  30  Tennessee Titans        =  13.48    3  12   0   21.68(   1)   0  7  0 |   1  9  0 |   13.85   29 |   13.27   30 |   12.56   30 |   11.99   28  (afc south)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  13.02    2  13   0   21.38(   4)   0  5  0 |   1  9  0 |   13.01   31 |   12.93   31 |   12.41   31 |   10.26   31  (afc west)
  32  New York Jets           =  11.30    3  12   0   19.00(  27)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   11.27   32 |   11.18   32 |   10.55   32 |    8.18   32  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.85      23.25  (  1)      4      23.44  (  1)  23.2464( 5.4441)  23.5428( 5.3615)  23.2547( 5.0776)  23.2241( 6.6410)
   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.91      22.74  (  2)      4      22.75  (  2)  22.7375( 2.0364)  22.7164( 2.0766)  22.6715( 1.9964)  23.1589( 2.4288)
   3  (afc south)             =  21.43      20.82  (  3)      4      20.98  (  3)  20.8191( 5.1657)  21.2100( 5.1450)  20.7719( 5.3179)  20.5676( 5.6813)
   4  (afc west)              =  21.10      20.35  (  4)      4      20.54  (  4)  20.3481( 4.8909)  20.2232( 4.8345)  20.4541( 5.1213)  20.4690( 5.3799)
   5  (afc north)             =  19.19      18.92  (  5)      4      18.96  (  5)  18.9176( 4.0806)  18.7991( 4.0453)  18.8153( 4.0069)  19.0497( 4.6610)
   6  (afc east)              =  18.74      18.56  (  7)      4      18.61  (  6)  18.5573( 6.3620)  18.4401( 6.3016)  18.6160( 6.4426)  18.4784( 7.0528)
   7  (NFC EAST)              =  18.19      18.67  (  6)      4      18.53  (  7)  18.6683( 4.6250)  18.6376( 4.4950)  18.4038( 4.8413)  18.8006( 5.1318)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.78      16.71  (  8)      4      16.71  (  8)  16.7057( 1.9487)  16.4308( 1.9814)  17.0127( 2.5730)  16.2516( 1.6167)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.5399)  20.0000( 4.5755)  20.0000( 4.5755)  20.0000( 5.0590)

      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   7  (NFC EAST)              =  18.19      18.67  (  6)      4      18.53  (  7)  18.6683( 4.6250)  18.6376( 4.4950)  18.4038( 4.8413)  18.8006( 5.1318)
   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.91      22.74  (  2)      4      22.75  (  2)  22.7375( 2.0364)  22.7164( 2.0766)  22.6715( 1.9964)  23.1589( 2.4288)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.78      16.71  (  8)      4      16.71  (  8)  16.7057( 1.9487)  16.4308( 1.9814)  17.0127( 2.5730)  16.2516( 1.6167)
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.85      23.25  (  1)      4      23.44  (  1)  23.2464( 5.4441)  23.5428( 5.3615)  23.2547( 5.0776)  23.2241( 6.6410)
   6  (afc east)              =  18.74      18.56  (  7)      4      18.61  (  6)  18.5573( 6.3620)  18.4401( 6.3016)  18.6160( 6.4426)  18.4784( 7.0528)
   5  (afc north)             =  19.19      18.92  (  5)      4      18.96  (  5)  18.9176( 4.0806)  18.7991( 4.0453)  18.8153( 4.0069)  19.0497( 4.6610)
   3  (afc south)             =  21.43      20.82  (  3)      4      20.98  (  3)  20.8191( 5.1657)  21.2100( 5.1450)  20.7719( 5.3179)  20.5676( 5.6813)
   4  (afc west)              =  21.10      20.35  (  4)      4      20.54  (  4)  20.3481( 4.8909)  20.2232( 4.8345)  20.4541( 5.1213)  20.4690( 5.3799)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.5399)  20.0000( 4.5755)  20.0000( 4.5755)  20.0000( 5.0590)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (NFC EAST)              =  18.19
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
   3  Philadelphia Eagles     =  25.39   10   5   0   20.19(  16)   3  1  0 |   4  3  0 |   25.29    3 |   25.23    3 |   26.27    3 |   26.27    4  (NFC EAST)
  21  Washington Redskins     =  17.44    4  11   0   20.32(  15)   0  5  0 |   1  7  0 |   16.88   22 |   17.81   21 |   17.36   21 |   14.33   26  (NFC EAST)
  23  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.00    6   8   1   19.81(  20)   1  3  1 |   2  5  1 |   16.98   21 |   16.69   24 |   17.02   23 |   16.60   21  (NFC EAST)
  27  New York Giants         =  14.84    2  13   0   21.66(   2)   1  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.40   26 |   13.89   27 |   14.55   25 |   13.44   27  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.91
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
   6  Detroit Lions           =  24.47    8   7   0   20.54(  12)   0  4  0 |   2  6  0 |   24.98    5 |   23.95   10 |   25.02    5 |   23.87   12  (NFC NORTH)
   8  Green Bay Packers       =  24.02    9   5   1   19.89(  19)   2  2  0 |   4  3  0 |   23.74    9 |   24.38    7 |   24.37    7 |   24.23   11  (NFC NORTH)
  15  Chicago Bears           =  22.51   11   4   0   19.46(  23)   2  2  0 |   3  3  0 |   21.91   15 |   22.39   12 |   23.63   11 |   25.22    8  (NFC NORTH)
  18  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.95    7   8   0   20.79(   8)   1  3  0 |   2  7  0 |   20.24   18 |   19.96   18 |   19.62   18 |   18.81   18  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.78
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  18.84    7   8   0   20.57(  10)   3  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   18.91   19 |   19.94   19 |   17.33   22 |   15.18   23  (NFC SOUTH)
  22  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.16    6   9   0   19.11(  26)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   16.48   23 |   17.16   23 |   17.56   20 |   17.82   19  (NFC SOUTH)
  24  Carolina Panthers       =  16.69    8   7   0   19.24(  25)   2  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   16.26   24 |   17.29   22 |   16.09   24 |   16.45   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  28  New Orleans Saints      =  14.13    5  10   0   19.33(  24)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   14.07   28 |   13.66   28 |   14.03   27 |   15.12   24  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.85
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
   1  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.44   11   4   0   21.47(   3)   5  3  0 |   6  3  0 |   27.76    1 |   27.02    1 |   28.39    1 |   31.72    1  (NFC WEST)
   2  Seattle Seahawks        =  26.39   12   3   0   19.96(  18)   3  2  0 |   4  2  0 |   26.70    2 |   26.14    2 |   27.01    2 |   30.27    2  (NFC WEST)
   9  San Francisco 49ers     =  23.74   11   4   0   19.63(  22)   2  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   23.82    8 |   23.97    9 |   23.80   10 |   25.72    6  (NFC WEST)
  25  Arizona Cardinals       =  15.42    3  12   0   21.23(   6)   0  8  0 |   0  8  0 |   15.90   25 |   15.89   25 |   13.69   28 |   11.49   30  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (afc east)              =  18.74
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
   4  Buffalo Bills           =  24.71   11   4   0   18.58(  30)   0  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   24.66    6 |   25.06    4 |   24.89    6 |   24.75   10  (afc east)
  11  New England Patriots    =  23.00   12   3   0   17.13(  32)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   22.69   11 |   22.79   11 |   23.93    9 |   26.06    5  (afc east)
  26  Miami Dolphins          =  15.21    6   9   0   18.70(  29)   1  1  0 |   1  5  0 |   15.14   27 |   15.43   26 |   14.55   26 |   14.37   25  (afc east)
  32  New York Jets           =  11.30    3  12   0   19.00(  27)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   11.27   32 |   11.18   32 |   10.55   32 |    8.18   32  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (afc north)             =  19.19
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
  13  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.57    7   8   0   19.77(  21)   0  4  0 |   1  7  0 |   22.63   12 |   22.13   15 |   23.29   13 |   22.34   15  (afc north)
  16  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  21.66    9   6   0   20.58(   9)   1  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   21.36   17 |   21.65   16 |   22.18   16 |   23.30   13  (afc north)
  20  Cincinnati Bengals      =  17.80    5  10   0   21.27(   5)   1  4  0 |   3  8  0 |   17.53   20 |   18.02   20 |   17.63   19 |   16.65   20  (afc north)
  29  Cleveland Browns        =  13.64    3  12   0   20.11(  17)   1  3  0 |   1  8  0 |   13.68   30 |   13.47   29 |   13.10   29 |   11.63   29  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (afc south)             =  21.43
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
   5  Houston Texans          =  24.50   10   5   0   20.99(   7)   3  4  0 |   5  4  0 |   25.06    4 |   25.02    5 |   23.94    8 |   25.09    9  (afc south)
   7  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  24.37   11   4   0   20.32(  14)   3  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   24.42    7 |   24.02    8 |   25.19    4 |   28.70    3  (afc south)
  17  Indianapolis Colts      =  20.93    8   7   0   20.37(  13)   1  5  0 |   2  7  0 |   21.51   16 |   20.78   17 |   20.58   17 |   20.90   17  (afc south)
  30  Tennessee Titans        =  13.48    3  12   0   21.68(   1)   0  7  0 |   1  9  0 |   13.85   29 |   13.27   30 |   12.56   30 |   11.99   28  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc west)              =  21.10
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.87]                                                   [  1.90]       [  1.88]       [  1.83]       [  1.83]
  10  Denver Broncos          =  23.18   12   3   0   18.57(  31)   3  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   22.56   13 |   24.40    6 |   23.04   14 |   22.76   14  (afc west)
  12  Kansas City Chiefs      =  22.67    6   9   0   20.56(  11)   1  5  0 |   2  7  0 |   23.26   10 |   22.13   14 |   22.96   15 |   21.08   16  (afc west)
  14  Los Angeles Chargers    =  22.51   11   4   0   18.98(  28)   2  1  0 |   5  1  0 |   22.07   14 |   22.36   13 |   23.47   12 |   25.48    7  (afc west)
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  13.02    2  13   0   21.38(   4)   0  5  0 |   1  9  0 |   13.01   31 |   12.93   31 |   12.41   31 |   10.26   31  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                      These are the "regular method".                                                           _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                                                  _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                                       _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite                         _
                                                            Strong                   MONEYLINE=odds to 100                      _
          FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG                ODDS   PCT%                 TOTAL   _
====================================================================================================================================


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  1.87   1.90   1.88   1.83   1.83
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Washington Redskins    2.32   1.79   3.00   2.17  -0.44   Dallas Cowboys           137    58%   27.49  25.70  53.19
    2     Detroit Lions          2.65   2.84   2.11   3.57   3.22 @ Minnesota Vikings        143    59%   21.89  25.45  47.34
    3   @ Kansas City Chiefs     1.36   2.60  -0.40   1.74   0.15   Denver Broncos           120    55%   22.44  20.34  42.78
    4     New England Patriots   9.83   9.52   9.74  11.56  16.05 @ New York Jets            350    78%   16.71  29.93  46.64
    5   @ Buffalo Bills          1.18   1.27   1.71   0.45   0.31   Philadelphia Eagles      117    54%   24.61  22.55  47.15
    6     Tampa Bay Buccaneers   1.76   1.88   2.63   0.95  -1.02 @ Miami Dolphins           127    56%   22.05  25.16  47.21
    7     Pittsburgh Steelers    6.15   5.79   6.30   7.25   9.84 @ Cleveland Browns         225    69%   17.08  25.49  42.57
    8     Jacksonville Jaguars   1.57   1.01   1.36   2.78   5.98 @ Indianapolis Colts       124    55%   25.06  25.38  50.43
    9   @ Tennessee Titans       1.22   1.68   1.49   0.37  -1.31   New Orleans Saints       118    54%   21.19  20.47  41.65
   10   @ San Francisco 49ers    3.10   3.81   3.45   2.00   2.32   Chicago Bears            152    60%   27.98  20.35  48.34
   11     Seattle Seahawks       7.83   8.54   6.97   9.09  11.99 @ Carolina Panthers        276    73%   14.41  29.69  44.10
   12   @ Cincinnati Bengals     4.25   3.53   4.01   5.77   7.00   Arizona Cardinals        176    64%   25.17  25.84  51.01
   13   @ Green Bay Packers      3.32   3.01   4.13   2.91   3.73   Baltimore Ravens         156    61%   25.58  19.54  45.12
   14   @ Las Vegas Raiders      0.05  -0.50   0.92  -0.31  -1.35   New York Giants          101    50%   20.82  23.86  44.68
   15     Houston Texans         0.12   1.10   0.79  -1.36  -2.22 @ Los Angeles Chargers     102    50%   18.34  22.52  40.86
   16     Los Angeles Rams       8.41   9.38   7.99   9.01  12.06 @ Atlanta Falcons          296    75%   16.33  31.44  47.77

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 22 Monday - Week 16
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  1.87   1.90   1.88   1.83   1.83
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1     Dallas Cowboys         1.61   2.13   0.93   1.75   4.37 @ Washington Redskins      124    55%   27.49  25.70  53.19
    2     Detroit Lions          0.86   1.05   0.31   1.78   1.43 @ Minnesota Vikings        112    53%   21.89  25.45  47.34
    3   @ Kansas City Chiefs     0.68   1.91  -1.08   1.06  -0.53   Denver Broncos           110    52%   22.44  20.34  42.78
    4     New England Patriots  20.47  20.15  20.37  22.19  26.68 @ New York Jets           1116    92%   16.71  29.93  46.64
    5   @ Buffalo Bills          1.59   1.67   2.11   0.86   0.71   Philadelphia Eagles      124    55%   24.61  22.55  47.15
    6     Tampa Bay Buccaneers   0.93   1.06   1.80   0.13  -1.85 @ Miami Dolphins           114    53%   22.05  25.16  47.21
    7     Pittsburgh Steelers    7.86   7.50   8.00   8.96  11.54 @ Cleveland Browns         277    73%   17.08  25.49  42.57
    8     Jacksonville Jaguars   4.67   4.12   4.47   5.89   9.08 @ Indianapolis Colts       186    65%   25.06  25.38  50.43
    9     New Orleans Saints     1.16   0.69   0.88   2.01   3.68 @ Tennessee Titans         117    54%   21.19  20.47  41.65
   10   @ San Francisco 49ers    1.92   2.63   2.28   0.83   1.15   Chicago Bears            130    56%   27.98  20.35  48.34
   11     Seattle Seahawks      14.51  15.22  13.65  15.77  18.67 @ Carolina Panthers        596    86%   14.41  29.69  44.10
   12   @ Cincinnati Bengals     0.69  -0.04   0.45   2.21   3.43   Arizona Cardinals        110    52%   25.17  25.84  51.01
   13   @ Green Bay Packers      1.38   1.07   2.20   0.98   1.79   Baltimore Ravens         121    55%   25.58  19.54  45.12
   14     New York Giants        0.24   0.79  -0.62   0.61   1.64 @ Las Vegas Raiders        103    51%   20.82  23.86  44.68
   15   @ Los Angeles Chargers   1.49   0.51   0.82   2.97   3.83   Houston Texans           122    55%   18.34  22.52  40.86
   16     Los Angeles Rams      17.44  18.41  17.02  18.04  21.10 @ Atlanta Falcons          819    89%   16.33  31.44  47.77

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1    Dallas Cowboys         1.04   115   54%  @ Washington Redskins
    2    Detroit Lions          1.83   128   56%  @ Minnesota Vikings
    3    Denver Broncos         2.72   144   59%  @ Kansas City Chiefs
    4    New England Patriots  11.13   407   80%  @ New York Jets
    5  @ Buffalo Bills          2.82   146   59%    Philadelphia Eagles
    6    Tampa Bay Buccaneers   0.35   105   51%  @ Miami Dolphins
    7    Pittsburgh Steelers    6.52   235   70%  @ Cleveland Browns
    8    Jacksonville Jaguars   2.76   145   59%  @ Indianapolis Colts
    9    New Orleans Saints     1.53   123   55%  @ Tennessee Titans
   10  @ San Francisco 49ers    3.35   157   61%    Chicago Bears
   11    Seattle Seahawks       7.13   253   72%  @ Carolina Panthers
   12  @ Cincinnati Bengals     2.92   148   60%    Arizona Cardinals
   13  @ Green Bay Packers      6.68   239   71%    Baltimore Ravens
   14  @ Las Vegas Raiders      0.15   102   51%    New York Giants
   15  @ Los Angeles Chargers   0.82   112   53%    Houston Texans
   16    Los Angeles Rams       8.98   317   76%  @ Atlanta Falcons
endfile

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