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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2024 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2024 Ratings through results of 2024 NOVEMBER 18 MONDAY - WEEK #11


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   1  Detroit Lions           =  29.96    9   1   0   20.02(  17)   3  0  0 |   5  0  0 |   30.26    1 |   29.29    1 |   31.51    1 |   35.46    1  (NFC NORTH)
   2  Buffalo Bills           =  27.62    9   2   0   20.66(  12)   1  2  0 |   4  2  0 |   27.53    2 |   27.36    3 |   28.74    2 |   31.09    2  (afc east)
   3  Philadelphia Eagles     =  25.63    8   2   0   17.96(  29)   1  0  0 |   3  0  0 |   25.56    3 |   25.40    4 |   26.48    3 |   27.77    3  (NFC EAST)
   4  Kansas City Chiefs      =  25.17    9   1   0   20.41(  15)   2  1  0 |   4  1  0 |   24.57    5 |   27.43    2 |   24.61    6 |   24.67    8  (afc west)
   5  Baltimore Ravens        =  24.91    7   4   0   20.17(  16)   1  2  0 |   4  2  0 |   25.27    4 |   25.13    5 |   24.79    5 |   24.47    9  (afc north)
   6  Green Bay Packers       =  24.16    7   3   0   21.38(   7)   1  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   24.13    7 |   24.90    6 |   23.87    9 |   23.80   11  (NFC NORTH)
   7  Houston Texans          =  24.15    7   4   0   20.91(   8)   1  3  0 |   1  3  0 |   24.19    6 |   23.78    9 |   24.92    4 |   25.25    7  (afc south)
   8  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  23.73    8   2   0   18.64(  27)   1  0  0 |   3  0  0 |   23.38    9 |   24.28    7 |   23.90    8 |   25.73    6  (afc north)
   9  Minnesota Vikings       =  23.68    8   2   0   20.57(  14)   3  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   23.19   10 |   24.21    8 |   24.04    7 |   26.58    4  (NFC NORTH)
  10  San Francisco 49ers     =  23.32    5   5   0   19.70(  18)   0  2  0 |   0  4  0 |   23.52    8 |   23.53   10 |   23.20   10 |   21.62   14  (NFC WEST)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
  11  Los Angeles Chargers    =  22.38    7   3   0   17.84(  32)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   22.44   12 |   22.08   11 |   22.85   11 |   25.99    5  (afc west)
  12  Arizona Cardinals       =  21.68    6   4   0   22.35(   1)   1  3  0 |   4  4  0 |   22.56   11 |   21.10   12 |   21.57   12 |   23.95   10  (NFC WEST)
  13  Washington Redskins     =  20.78    7   4   0   18.91(  25)   0  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   21.02   13 |   20.63   13 |   20.75   15 |   22.58   13  (NFC EAST)
  14  Cincinnati Bengals      =  20.38    4   7   0   19.06(  24)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   20.78   14 |   19.45   19 |   20.99   13 |   20.39   15  (afc north)
  15  Los Angeles Rams        =  20.28    5   5   0   20.82(   9)   2  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   20.29   17 |   20.42   14 |   20.12   16 |   19.77   20  (NFC WEST)
  16  Miami Dolphins          =  20.08    4   6   0   19.43(  21)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   20.38   16 |   19.03   20 |   20.87   14 |   20.01   17  (afc east)
  17  Denver Broncos          =  20.05    6   5   0   19.38(  22)   0  3  0 |   0  4  0 |   20.55   15 |   19.50   18 |   20.09   17 |   22.64   12  (afc west)
  18  Indianapolis Colts      =  19.91    5   6   0   21.62(   5)   1  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   19.95   19 |   19.76   16 |   20.01   18 |   20.02   16  (afc south)
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.72    4   6   0   21.80(   4)   2  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   19.93   20 |   19.67   17 |   19.49   20 |   20.01   18  (NFC SOUTH)
  20  Seattle Seahawks        =  19.72    5   5   0   20.68(  11)   1  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   19.98   18 |   19.93   15 |   19.15   21 |   18.48   21  (NFC WEST)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
  21  Chicago Bears           =  18.90    4   6   0   18.64(  28)   0  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   18.71   22 |   18.23   23 |   19.71   19 |   19.79   19  (NFC NORTH)
  22  New York Jets           =  18.89    3   8   0   20.74(  10)   1  4  0 |   1  5  0 |   18.98   21 |   18.96   21 |   18.58   22 |   16.96   23  (afc east)
  23  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.70    6   5   0   19.13(  23)   1  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   16.28   23 |   18.66   22 |   17.79   23 |   17.75   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  24  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  16.47    2   9   0   22.21(   2)   0  6  0 |   0  7  0 |   15.95   25 |   15.89   26 |   17.18   24 |   16.10   24  (afc south)
  25  New Orleans Saints      =  16.05    4   7   0   17.94(  30)   0  2  0 |   0  3  0 |   16.00   24 |   16.08   25 |   15.68   25 |   15.34   25  (NFC SOUTH)
  26  Dallas Cowboys          =  15.72    3   7   0   21.39(   6)   1  5  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.80   27 |   16.45   24 |   15.37   26 |   12.04   27  (NFC EAST)
  27  Tennessee Titans        =  14.73    2   8   0   21.94(   3)   0  4  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.82   26 |   15.13   27 |   13.60   29 |   11.23   29  (afc south)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  14.56    2   8   0   18.76(  26)   1  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   14.79   28 |   14.19   28 |   14.16   27 |   10.66   30  (afc north)
  29  New England Patriots    =  14.32    3   8   0   19.60(  19)   0  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   14.63   29 |   13.81   29 |   13.95   28 |   13.44   26  (afc east)
  30  New York Giants         =  13.26    2   8   0   19.49(  20)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   13.39   30 |   13.08   30 |   12.66   30 |   11.76   28  (NFC EAST)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.31    2   8   0   20.64(  13)   1  2  0 |   1  6  0 |   12.64   31 |   12.07   31 |   11.43   31 |    9.20   31  (afc west)
  32  Carolina Panthers       =   9.80    3   7   0   17.91(  31)   0  0  0 |   0  3  0 |    9.52   32 |   10.59   32 |    7.93   32 |    5.46   32  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  24.09      24.18  (  1)      4      24.18  (  1)
   2  (afc north)             =  21.28      20.89  (  3)      4      20.89  (  3)
   3  (NFC WEST)              =  21.16      21.25  (  2)      4      21.25  (  2)
   4  (afc west)              =  20.39      19.98  (  5)      4      19.98  (  5)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.98      20.23  (  4)      4      20.23  (  4)
   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.65      18.85  (  6)      4      18.85  (  6)
   7  (afc south)             =  18.60      18.81  (  7)      4      18.81  (  7)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.17      15.82  (  8)      4      15.82  (  8)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.65      18.85  (  6)      4      18.85  (  6)
   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  24.09      24.18  (  1)      4      24.18  (  1)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.17      15.82  (  8)      4      15.82  (  8)
   3  (NFC WEST)              =  21.16      21.25  (  2)      4      21.25  (  2)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.98      20.23  (  4)      4      20.23  (  4)
   2  (afc north)             =  21.28      20.89  (  3)      4      20.89  (  3)
   7  (afc south)             =  18.60      18.81  (  7)      4      18.81  (  7)
   4  (afc west)              =  20.39      19.98  (  5)      4      19.98  (  5)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.65
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   3  Philadelphia Eagles     =  25.63    8   2   0   17.96(  29)   1  0  0 |   3  0  0 |   25.56    3 |   25.40    4 |   26.48    3 |   27.77    3  (NFC EAST)
  13  Washington Redskins     =  20.78    7   4   0   18.91(  25)   0  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   21.02   13 |   20.63   13 |   20.75   15 |   22.58   13  (NFC EAST)
  26  Dallas Cowboys          =  15.72    3   7   0   21.39(   6)   1  5  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.80   27 |   16.45   24 |   15.37   26 |   12.04   27  (NFC EAST)
  30  New York Giants         =  13.26    2   8   0   19.49(  20)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   13.39   30 |   13.08   30 |   12.66   30 |   11.76   28  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  24.09
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   1  Detroit Lions           =  29.96    9   1   0   20.02(  17)   3  0  0 |   5  0  0 |   30.26    1 |   29.29    1 |   31.51    1 |   35.46    1  (NFC NORTH)
   6  Green Bay Packers       =  24.16    7   3   0   21.38(   7)   1  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   24.13    7 |   24.90    6 |   23.87    9 |   23.80   11  (NFC NORTH)
   9  Minnesota Vikings       =  23.68    8   2   0   20.57(  14)   3  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   23.19   10 |   24.21    8 |   24.04    7 |   26.58    4  (NFC NORTH)
  21  Chicago Bears           =  18.90    4   6   0   18.64(  28)   0  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   18.71   22 |   18.23   23 |   19.71   19 |   19.79   19  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.17
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.72    4   6   0   21.80(   4)   2  3  0 |   3  3  0 |   19.93   20 |   19.67   17 |   19.49   20 |   20.01   18  (NFC SOUTH)
  23  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.70    6   5   0   19.13(  23)   1  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   16.28   23 |   18.66   22 |   17.79   23 |   17.75   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  New Orleans Saints      =  16.05    4   7   0   17.94(  30)   0  2  0 |   0  3  0 |   16.00   24 |   16.08   25 |   15.68   25 |   15.34   25  (NFC SOUTH)
  32  Carolina Panthers       =   9.80    3   7   0   17.91(  31)   0  0  0 |   0  3  0 |    9.52   32 |   10.59   32 |    7.93   32 |    5.46   32  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (NFC WEST)              =  21.16
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
  10  San Francisco 49ers     =  23.32    5   5   0   19.70(  18)   0  2  0 |   0  4  0 |   23.52    8 |   23.53   10 |   23.20   10 |   21.62   14  (NFC WEST)
  12  Arizona Cardinals       =  21.68    6   4   0   22.35(   1)   1  3  0 |   4  4  0 |   22.56   11 |   21.10   12 |   21.57   12 |   23.95   10  (NFC WEST)
  15  Los Angeles Rams        =  20.28    5   5   0   20.82(   9)   2  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   20.29   17 |   20.42   14 |   20.12   16 |   19.77   20  (NFC WEST)
  20  Seattle Seahawks        =  19.72    5   5   0   20.68(  11)   1  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   19.98   18 |   19.93   15 |   19.15   21 |   18.48   21  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (afc east)              =  19.98
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   2  Buffalo Bills           =  27.62    9   2   0   20.66(  12)   1  2  0 |   4  2  0 |   27.53    2 |   27.36    3 |   28.74    2 |   31.09    2  (afc east)
  16  Miami Dolphins          =  20.08    4   6   0   19.43(  21)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   20.38   16 |   19.03   20 |   20.87   14 |   20.01   17  (afc east)
  22  New York Jets           =  18.89    3   8   0   20.74(  10)   1  4  0 |   1  5  0 |   18.98   21 |   18.96   21 |   18.58   22 |   16.96   23  (afc east)
  29  New England Patriots    =  14.32    3   8   0   19.60(  19)   0  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   14.63   29 |   13.81   29 |   13.95   28 |   13.44   26  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (afc north)             =  21.28
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   5  Baltimore Ravens        =  24.91    7   4   0   20.17(  16)   1  2  0 |   4  2  0 |   25.27    4 |   25.13    5 |   24.79    5 |   24.47    9  (afc north)
   8  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  23.73    8   2   0   18.64(  27)   1  0  0 |   3  0  0 |   23.38    9 |   24.28    7 |   23.90    8 |   25.73    6  (afc north)
  14  Cincinnati Bengals      =  20.38    4   7   0   19.06(  24)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   20.78   14 |   19.45   19 |   20.99   13 |   20.39   15  (afc north)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  14.56    2   8   0   18.76(  26)   1  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   14.79   28 |   14.19   28 |   14.16   27 |   10.66   30  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (afc south)             =  18.60
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   7  Houston Texans          =  24.15    7   4   0   20.91(   8)   1  3  0 |   1  3  0 |   24.19    6 |   23.78    9 |   24.92    4 |   25.25    7  (afc south)
  18  Indianapolis Colts      =  19.91    5   6   0   21.62(   5)   1  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   19.95   19 |   19.76   16 |   20.01   18 |   20.02   16  (afc south)
  24  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  16.47    2   9   0   22.21(   2)   0  6  0 |   0  7  0 |   15.95   25 |   15.89   26 |   17.18   24 |   16.10   24  (afc south)
  27  Tennessee Titans        =  14.73    2   8   0   21.94(   3)   0  4  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.82   26 |   15.13   27 |   13.60   29 |   11.23   29  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc west)              =  20.39
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 November 18 Monday - Week #11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.07]                                                   [  1.23]       [  1.12]       [  0.86]       [  0.86]
   4  Kansas City Chiefs      =  25.17    9   1   0   20.41(  15)   2  1  0 |   4  1  0 |   24.57    5 |   27.43    2 |   24.61    6 |   24.67    8  (afc west)
  11  Los Angeles Chargers    =  22.38    7   3   0   17.84(  32)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   22.44   12 |   22.08   11 |   22.85   11 |   25.99    5  (afc west)
  17  Denver Broncos          =  20.05    6   5   0   19.38(  22)   0  3  0 |   0  4  0 |   20.55   15 |   19.50   18 |   20.09   17 |   22.64   12  (afc west)
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.31    2   8   0   20.64(  13)   1  2  0 |   1  6  0 |   12.64   31 |   12.07   31 |   11.43   31 |    9.20   31  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile 


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

                                      These are the "regular method".                                        _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                               _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                    _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite      _
                                                       Strong                        MONEYLINE=odds to 100   _
     FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG               ODDS   PCT%   TOTAL    _
==================================================================================================================
     Pittsburgh_Steelers    8.11   7.37   8.97   8.88  14.22 @ Cleveland_Browns        277    73%   36.30    35.42 average= 35.86
     Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers   5.39   5.32   5.47   5.97   7.38 @ New_York_Giants         200    67%   45.42    45.38 average= 45.4
   @ Washington_Redskins    6.13   7.45   5.29   6.24  11.40   Dallas_Cowboys          219    69%   52.89    52.62 average= 52.755
   @ Miami_Dolphins         6.82   6.98   6.34   7.78   7.42   New_England_Patriots    238    70%   34.34    35.43 average= 34.885
     Kansas_City_Chiefs    14.30  13.82  15.72  15.83  18.35 @ Carolina_Panthers       556    85%   43.38    48.61 average= 45.995
     Detroit_Lions          8.98   9.09   8.41  10.64  14.57 @ Indianapolis_Colts      307    75%   48.14    49.07 average= 48.605
     Minnesota_Vikings      3.71   3.25   4.86   3.47   5.93 @ Chicago_Bears           162    62%   34.41    33.33 average= 33.87
   @ Green_Bay_Packers      1.91   1.84   2.49   1.52   3.04   San_Francisco_49ers     129    56%   47.96    48.24 average= 48.1
   @ Houston_Texans        10.49  10.60   9.76  12.18  14.88   Tennessee_Titans        365    78%   45.84    41.97 average= 43.905
     Denver_Broncos         6.67   6.69   6.31   7.81  12.58 @ Las_Vegas_Raiders       234    70%   40.86    39.65 average= 40.255
     Philadelphia_Eagles    4.28   4.05   3.86   5.51   7.14 @ Los_Angeles_Rams        174    64%   42.89    44.35 average= 43.62
     Arizona_Cardinals      0.90   1.35   0.05   1.56   4.61 @ Seattle_Seahawks        113    53%   49.57    47.84 average= 48.705
     Baltimore_Ravens       1.47   1.61   1.93   1.08  -2.38 @ Los_Angeles_Chargers    121    55%   44.68    46.75 average= 45.715

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM
     Pittsburgh_Steelers   18.36  17.63  19.23  19.14  24.48 @ Cleveland_Browns        853    90%   36.30  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    35.42 average= 35.86
     Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers  15.36  15.29  15.45  15.95  17.36 @ New_York_Giants         624    86%   45.42  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    45.38 average= 45.4
   @ Washington_Redskins   10.44  11.76   9.60  10.55  15.71   Dallas_Cowboys          363    78%   52.89  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    52.62 average= 52.755
   @ Miami_Dolphins         2.03   2.19   1.55   2.99   2.63   New_England_Patriots    131    57%   34.34  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    35.43 average= 34.885
     Kansas_City_Chiefs    19.47  19.00  20.89  21.00  23.52 @ Carolina_Panthers       954    91%   43.38  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    48.61 average= 45.995
     Detroit_Lions         12.81  12.91  12.24  14.47  18.40 @ Indianapolis_Colts      473    83%   48.14  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    49.07 average= 48.605
     Minnesota_Vikings      5.12   4.65   6.27   4.88   7.34 @ Chicago_Bears           194    66%   34.41  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    33.33 average= 33.87
   @ Green_Bay_Packers      4.61   4.54   5.19   4.22   5.74   San_Francisco_49ers     182    64%   47.96  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    48.24 average= 48.1
   @ Houston_Texans        16.21  16.32  15.48  17.90  20.60   Tennessee_Titans        682    87%   45.84  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    41.97 average= 43.905
     Denver_Broncos        14.92  14.94  14.55  16.05  20.83 @ Las_Vegas_Raiders       595    86%   40.86  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    39.65 average= 40.255
     Philadelphia_Eagles   10.17   9.93   9.75  11.39  13.03 @ Los_Angeles_Rams        352    78%   42.89  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    44.35 average= 43.62
     Arizona_Cardinals      5.42   5.87   4.57   6.08   9.13 @ Seattle_Seahawks        201    67%   49.57  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    47.84 average= 48.705
   @ Los_Angeles_Chargers   7.95   7.81   7.48   8.33  11.79   Baltimore_Ravens        272    73%   44.68  HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    46.75 average= 45.715

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
   1      Pittsburgh Steelers   14.14   547   85%  @ Cleveland Browns
   2      Tampa Bay Buccaneers   7.12   247   71%  @ New York Giants
   3    @ Washington Redskins   11.55   411   80%    Dallas Cowboys
   4    @ Miami Dolphins         2.32   136   58%    New England Patriots
   5      Kansas City Chiefs    15.98   664   87%  @ Carolina Panthers
   6      Detroit Lions          8.32   284   74%  @ Indianapolis Colts
   7      Minnesota Vikings      8.45   288   74%  @ Chicago Bears
   8    @ Green Bay Packers      3.01   148   60%    San Francisco 49ers
   9    @ Houston Texans        13.14   490   83%    Tennessee Titans
  10      Denver Broncos        10.35   359   78%  @ Las Vegas Raiders

  11      Philadelphia Eagles    5.65   206   67%  @ Los Angeles Rams
  12      Arizona Cardinals      0.59   108   52%  @ Seattle Seahawks
  13      Baltimore Ravens       2.83   145   59%  @ Los Angeles Chargers
endfile

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