United States Naval Observatory
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"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the manpower for that war. The policies - determining who would be drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic disgrace. I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable (someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are too good to risk. I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."
NFL 2024 Ratings through results of 2024 OCTOBER 7 MONDAY - WEEK #5 this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) DIVISION AVERAGES (listed top-to-bottom & by conference) (3) teams listed by DIVISION (listed in order within divisions) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 2 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be favored by 4 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 8 points over a HOME team having a rating of 14. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings directly over their respective columns. The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters. PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN, and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 1 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.00 5 0 0 20.41( 15) 1 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 25.57 1 | 27.61 1 | 25.84 1 | 27.72 2 (afc west) 2 Detroit Lions = 24.70 3 1 0 18.64( 25) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 24.46 5 | 24.66 3 | 25.36 3 | 25.59 4 (NFC NORTH) 3 Buffalo Bills = 24.49 3 2 0 20.60( 13) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 25.13 2 | 23.42 6 | 25.70 2 | 26.20 3 (afc east) 4 Baltimore Ravens = 24.20 3 2 0 21.39( 4) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 24.64 4 | 23.95 5 | 24.34 5 | 24.28 6 (afc north) 5 Minnesota Vikings = 24.10 5 0 0 21.74( 3) 4 0 0 | 4 0 0 | 24.08 6 | 25.75 2 | 23.28 8 | 30.45 1 (NFC NORTH) 6 San Francisco 49ers = 24.09 2 3 0 19.26( 22) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 24.66 3 | 23.06 8 | 25.23 4 | 23.72 7 (NFC WEST) 7 Green Bay Packers = 23.47 3 2 0 20.40( 16) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 23.72 7 | 23.14 7 | 23.81 6 | 24.36 5 (NFC NORTH) 8 Houston Texans = 23.02 4 1 0 21.29( 5) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 21.94 9 | 24.25 4 | 23.40 7 | 22.44 10 (afc south) 9 Philadelphia Eagles = 22.01 2 2 0 21.00( 10) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 21.56 11 | 22.32 9 | 22.31 9 | 20.40 20 (NFC EAST) 10 New York Jets = 21.80 2 3 0 19.56( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 22.36 8 | 21.08 12 | 22.15 10 | 21.13 13 (afc east) NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 11 Pittsburgh Steelers = 21.67 3 2 0 19.91( 18) 0 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 21.68 10 | 22.26 10 | 21.19 12 | 22.46 9 (afc north) 12 Chicago Bears = 21.14 3 2 0 17.82( 32) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 21.37 12 | 20.59 15 | 21.61 11 | 23.10 8 (NFC NORTH) 13 Dallas Cowboys = 20.69 3 2 0 19.78( 19) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 20.32 16 | 20.77 13 | 21.05 14 | 21.80 12 (NFC EAST) 14 Atlanta Falcons = 20.50 3 2 0 21.09( 8) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 20.30 17 | 21.12 11 | 20.08 16 | 20.64 17 (NFC SOUTH) 15 Cincinnati Bengals = 20.07 1 4 0 18.70( 24) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 20.56 14 | 18.55 22 | 21.17 13 | 19.35 22 (afc north) 16 Indianapolis Colts = 19.94 2 3 0 21.19( 7) 0 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 19.95 18 | 19.62 18 | 20.27 15 | 20.59 18 (afc south) 17 Washington Redskins = 19.72 4 1 0 18.42( 26) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.60 13 | 20.35 16 | 17.98 25 | 22.24 11 (NFC EAST) 18 Seattle Seahawks = 19.69 3 2 0 18.00( 30) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.43 20 | 20.12 17 | 19.49 19 | 18.61 23 (NFC WEST) 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 19.61 3 2 0 20.83( 11) 2 0 0 | 2 1 0 | 19.71 19 | 20.59 14 | 18.40 23 | 20.95 15 (NFC SOUTH) 20 New Orleans Saints = 19.39 2 3 0 20.49( 14) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 20.48 15 | 19.37 19 | 18.13 24 | 20.71 16 (NFC SOUTH) NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 21 Los Angeles Chargers = 18.97 2 2 0 18.12( 28) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 19.10 21 | 19.00 20 | 18.70 21 | 20.52 19 (afc west) 22 Los Angeles Rams = 18.77 1 4 0 22.61( 1) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 18.54 24 | 17.59 25 | 20.05 17 | 18.36 24 (NFC WEST) 23 Arizona Cardinals = 18.60 2 3 0 22.17( 2) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 18.90 22 | 18.25 23 | 18.54 22 | 19.48 21 (NFC WEST) 24 Miami Dolphins = 18.51 2 3 0 18.37( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 17.53 26 | 17.89 24 | 19.92 18 | 13.54 28 (afc east) 25 Denver Broncos = 18.41 3 2 0 19.66( 20) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 18.83 23 | 18.96 21 | 17.15 26 | 21.11 14 (afc west) 26 Jacksonville Jaguars = 17.74 1 4 0 20.70( 12) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 16.98 27 | 16.43 28 | 19.35 20 | 16.67 27 (afc south) 27 Tennessee Titans = 17.18 1 3 0 21.23( 6) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 | 17.71 25 | 16.65 27 | 16.91 28 | 16.79 25 (afc south) 28 Cleveland Browns = 16.48 1 4 0 17.88( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.12 28 | 15.93 29 | 17.06 27 | 11.46 31 (afc north) 29 New York Giants = 16.19 2 3 0 20.35( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 16.11 29 | 16.97 26 | 14.93 29 | 16.75 26 (NFC EAST) 30 New England Patriots = 14.00 1 4 0 21.04( 9) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 13.88 30 | 13.70 31 | 13.95 30 | 12.56 29 (afc east) NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 31 Las Vegas Raiders = 13.97 2 3 0 18.06( 29) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 13.57 31 | 14.27 30 | 13.58 31 | 11.51 30 (afc west) 32 Carolina Panthers = 10.88 1 4 0 18.93( 23) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 10.23 32 | 11.79 32 | 9.08 32 | 4.53 32 (NFC SOUTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 (NFC NORTH) = 23.50 23.35 ( 1) 4 23.35 ( 1) 2 (afc north) = 20.69 20.61 ( 2) 4 20.61 ( 2) 3 (NFC WEST) = 19.94 20.29 ( 3) 4 20.29 ( 3) 4 (afc east) = 19.85 19.70 ( 4) 4 19.70 ( 4) 5 (NFC EAST) = 19.83 19.65 ( 5) 4 19.65 ( 5) 6 (afc south) = 19.26 19.47 ( 6) 4 19.47 ( 6) 7 (afc west) = 19.12 19.34 ( 7) 4 19.34 ( 7) 8 (NFC SOUTH) = 18.23 17.60 ( 8) 4 17.60 ( 8) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 5 (NFC EAST) = 19.83 19.65 ( 5) 4 19.65 ( 5) 1 (NFC NORTH) = 23.50 23.35 ( 1) 4 23.35 ( 1) 8 (NFC SOUTH) = 18.23 17.60 ( 8) 4 17.60 ( 8) 3 (NFC WEST) = 19.94 20.29 ( 3) 4 20.29 ( 3) 4 (afc east) = 19.85 19.70 ( 4) 4 19.70 ( 4) 2 (afc north) = 20.69 20.61 ( 2) 4 20.61 ( 2) 6 (afc south) = 19.26 19.47 ( 6) 4 19.47 ( 6) 7 (afc west) = 19.12 19.34 ( 7) 4 19.34 ( 7) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 (NFC EAST) = 19.83 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 9 Philadelphia Eagles = 22.01 2 2 0 21.00( 10) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 21.56 11 | 22.32 9 | 22.31 9 | 20.40 20 (NFC EAST) 13 Dallas Cowboys = 20.69 3 2 0 19.78( 19) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 20.32 16 | 20.77 13 | 21.05 14 | 21.80 12 (NFC EAST) 17 Washington Redskins = 19.72 4 1 0 18.42( 26) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.60 13 | 20.35 16 | 17.98 25 | 22.24 11 (NFC EAST) 29 New York Giants = 16.19 2 3 0 20.35( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 16.11 29 | 16.97 26 | 14.93 29 | 16.75 26 (NFC EAST) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 (NFC NORTH) = 23.50 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 2 Detroit Lions = 24.70 3 1 0 18.64( 25) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 24.46 5 | 24.66 3 | 25.36 3 | 25.59 4 (NFC NORTH) 5 Minnesota Vikings = 24.10 5 0 0 21.74( 3) 4 0 0 | 4 0 0 | 24.08 6 | 25.75 2 | 23.28 8 | 30.45 1 (NFC NORTH) 7 Green Bay Packers = 23.47 3 2 0 20.40( 16) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 23.72 7 | 23.14 7 | 23.81 6 | 24.36 5 (NFC NORTH) 12 Chicago Bears = 21.14 3 2 0 17.82( 32) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 21.37 12 | 20.59 15 | 21.61 11 | 23.10 8 (NFC NORTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 (NFC SOUTH) = 18.23 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 14 Atlanta Falcons = 20.50 3 2 0 21.09( 8) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 20.30 17 | 21.12 11 | 20.08 16 | 20.64 17 (NFC SOUTH) 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 19.61 3 2 0 20.83( 11) 2 0 0 | 2 1 0 | 19.71 19 | 20.59 14 | 18.40 23 | 20.95 15 (NFC SOUTH) 20 New Orleans Saints = 19.39 2 3 0 20.49( 14) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 20.48 15 | 19.37 19 | 18.13 24 | 20.71 16 (NFC SOUTH) 32 Carolina Panthers = 10.88 1 4 0 18.93( 23) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 10.23 32 | 11.79 32 | 9.08 32 | 4.53 32 (NFC SOUTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 (NFC WEST) = 19.94 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 6 San Francisco 49ers = 24.09 2 3 0 19.26( 22) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 24.66 3 | 23.06 8 | 25.23 4 | 23.72 7 (NFC WEST) 18 Seattle Seahawks = 19.69 3 2 0 18.00( 30) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.43 20 | 20.12 17 | 19.49 19 | 18.61 23 (NFC WEST) 22 Los Angeles Rams = 18.77 1 4 0 22.61( 1) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 18.54 24 | 17.59 25 | 20.05 17 | 18.36 24 (NFC WEST) 23 Arizona Cardinals = 18.60 2 3 0 22.17( 2) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 18.90 22 | 18.25 23 | 18.54 22 | 19.48 21 (NFC WEST) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 (afc east) = 19.85 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 3 Buffalo Bills = 24.49 3 2 0 20.60( 13) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 25.13 2 | 23.42 6 | 25.70 2 | 26.20 3 (afc east) 10 New York Jets = 21.80 2 3 0 19.56( 21) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 22.36 8 | 21.08 12 | 22.15 10 | 21.13 13 (afc east) 24 Miami Dolphins = 18.51 2 3 0 18.37( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 17.53 26 | 17.89 24 | 19.92 18 | 13.54 28 (afc east) 30 New England Patriots = 14.00 1 4 0 21.04( 9) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 13.88 30 | 13.70 31 | 13.95 30 | 12.56 29 (afc east) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 (afc north) = 20.69 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 4 Baltimore Ravens = 24.20 3 2 0 21.39( 4) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 24.64 4 | 23.95 5 | 24.34 5 | 24.28 6 (afc north) 11 Pittsburgh Steelers = 21.67 3 2 0 19.91( 18) 0 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 21.68 10 | 22.26 10 | 21.19 12 | 22.46 9 (afc north) 15 Cincinnati Bengals = 20.07 1 4 0 18.70( 24) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 | 20.56 14 | 18.55 22 | 21.17 13 | 19.35 22 (afc north) 28 Cleveland Browns = 16.48 1 4 0 17.88( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.12 28 | 15.93 29 | 17.06 27 | 11.46 31 (afc north) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 (afc south) = 19.26 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 8 Houston Texans = 23.02 4 1 0 21.29( 5) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 21.94 9 | 24.25 4 | 23.40 7 | 22.44 10 (afc south) 16 Indianapolis Colts = 19.94 2 3 0 21.19( 7) 0 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 19.95 18 | 19.62 18 | 20.27 15 | 20.59 18 (afc south) 26 Jacksonville Jaguars = 17.74 1 4 0 20.70( 12) 0 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 16.98 27 | 16.43 28 | 19.35 20 | 16.67 27 (afc south) 27 Tennessee Titans = 17.18 1 3 0 21.23( 6) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 | 17.71 25 | 16.65 27 | 16.91 28 | 16.79 25 (afc south) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 (afc west) = 19.12 NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.05] [ 1.21] [ 1.04] [ 0.91] [ 0.91] 1 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.00 5 0 0 20.41( 15) 1 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 25.57 1 | 27.61 1 | 25.84 1 | 27.72 2 (afc west) 21 Los Angeles Chargers = 18.97 2 2 0 18.12( 28) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 19.10 21 | 19.00 20 | 18.70 21 | 20.52 19 (afc west) 25 Denver Broncos = 18.41 3 2 0 19.66( 20) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 18.83 23 | 18.96 21 | 17.15 26 | 21.11 14 (afc west) 31 Las Vegas Raiders = 13.97 2 3 0 18.06( 29) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 13.57 31 | 14.27 30 | 13.58 31 | 11.51 30 (afc west) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================ San_Francisco_49ers 3.35 4.02 1.90 4.83 4.20 @ Seattle_Seahawks 153 61% 59.11 50.65 average= 54.88 N @ Chicago_Bears 3.40 4.39 4.15 2.25 6.43 Jacksonville_Jaguars 154 61% 40.67 39.67 average= 40.17 Houston_Texans 7.96 6.84 9.51 8.55 8.97 @ New_England_Patriots 267 73% 31.14 34.75 average= 32.945 Cincinnati_Bengals 2.83 3.24 0.54 5.33 1.69 @ New_York_Giants 144 59% 45.31 52.70 average= 49.005 @ Philadelphia_Eagles 6.58 6.66 7.43 6.16 9.85 Cleveland_Browns 227 69% 37.94 40.06 average= 39 @ Baltimore_Ravens 5.53 5.25 4.63 7.27 2.95 Washington_Redskins 200 67% 56.08 64.12 average= 60.1 Atlanta_Falcons 8.56 8.85 8.30 10.09 15.20 @ Carolina_Panthers 285 74% 50.08 46.33 average= 48.205 Indianapolis_Colts 1.71 1.02 1.92 2.46 2.89 @ Tennessee_Titans 125 55% 54.28 46.92 average= 50.6 @ Green_Bay_Packers 5.92 6.03 5.93 6.18 5.78 Arizona_Cardinals 210 68% 45.17 53.38 average= 49.275 @ New_Orleans_Saints 0.83 1.98 -0.17 0.63 0.67 Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers 111 53% 48.41 50.41 average= 49.41 Detroit_Lions 2.96 2.93 2.85 3.40 2.88 @ Dallas_Cowboys 146 59% 48.02 42.05 average= 45.035 @ Denver_Broncos 0.50 0.94 1.00 -0.65 1.50 Los_Angeles_Chargers 107 52% 28.50 28.50 average= 28.5 Pittsburgh_Steelers 6.65 6.90 6.95 6.70 10.05 @ Las_Vegas_Raiders 229 70% 41.00 32.90 average= 36.95 Buffalo_Bills 1.64 1.55 1.30 2.65 4.17 @ New_York_Jets 124 55% 44.72 41.42 average= 43.07 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM @ Seattle_Seahawks 4.76 4.08 6.20 3.27 3.90 San_Francisco_49ers 182 65% 59.11 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 50.65 average= 54.88 N @ Chicago_Bears 7.58 8.56 8.33 6.43 10.61 Jacksonville_Jaguars 255 72% 40.67 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 39.67 average= 40.17 Houston_Texans 2.69 1.56 4.23 3.27 3.70 @ New_England_Patriots 141 59% 31.14 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 34.75 average= 32.945 Cincinnati_Bengals 7.23 7.63 4.94 9.73 6.09 @ New_York_Giants 245 71% 45.31 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 52.70 average= 49.005 @ Philadelphia_Eagles 11.13 11.21 11.98 10.71 14.40 Cleveland_Browns 380 79% 37.94 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 40.06 average= 39 Washington_Redskins 0.24 0.52 1.14 -1.49 2.83 @ Baltimore_Ravens 103 51% 56.08 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 64.12 average= 60.1 Atlanta_Falcons 21.71 22.00 21.44 23.23 28.35 @ Carolina_Panthers 1128 92% 50.08 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 46.33 average= 48.205 Indianapolis_Colts 4.96 4.28 5.18 5.71 6.14 @ Tennessee_Titans 187 65% 54.28 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 46.92 average= 50.6 @ Green_Bay_Packers 1.11 1.22 1.12 1.38 0.98 Arizona_Cardinals 115 54% 45.17 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 53.38 average= 49.275 @ New_Orleans_Saints 4.07 5.22 3.06 3.87 3.91 Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers 168 63% 48.41 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 50.41 average= 49.41 Detroit_Lions 10.49 10.46 10.38 10.94 10.41 @ Dallas_Cowboys 355 78% 48.02 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 42.05 average= 45.035 @ Denver_Broncos 2.49 2.93 2.99 1.35 3.50 Los_Angeles_Chargers 138 58% 28.50 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 28.50 average= 28.5 Pittsburgh_Steelers 15.10 15.35 15.40 15.15 18.50 @ Las_Vegas_Raiders 583 85% 41.00 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 32.90 average= 36.95 @ New_York_Jets 1.44 1.54 1.79 0.44 -1.08 Buffalo_Bills 120 55% 44.72 HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS 41.42 average= 43.07 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Seattle Seahawks 1.97 129 56% San Francisco 49ers 2 N@ Chicago Bears 9.51 318 76% Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Houston Texans 8.52 284 74% @ New England Patriots 4 @ New York Giants 2.45 137 58% Cincinnati Bengals 5 @ Philadelphia Eagles 7.51 253 72% Cleveland Browns 6 Washington Redskins 2.39 136 58% @ Baltimore Ravens 7 Atlanta Falcons 8.52 284 74% @ Carolina Panthers 8 Indianapolis Colts 1.47 121 55% @ Tennessee Titans 9 @ Green Bay Packers 6.71 230 70% Arizona Cardinals 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.52 107 52% @ New Orleans Saints 11 Detroit Lions 1.95 128 56% @ Dallas Cowboys 12 @ Denver Broncos 3.02 147 60% Los Angeles Chargers 13 Pittsburgh Steelers 7.55 254 72% @ Las Vegas Raiders 14 Buffalo Bills 2.95 146 59% @ New York Jets endfileTop_of_Page