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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2024 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2024 Ratings through results of 2024 DECEMBER 16 MONDAY - WEEK #15


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  Detroit Lions           =  28.90   12   2   0   21.20(   6)   4  2  0 |   6  2  0 |   29.30    1 |   28.79    1 |   29.88    2 |   31.33    2  (NFC NORTH)
   2  Buffalo Bills           =  28.19   11   3   0   21.09(   9)   2  2  0 |   4  3  0 |   28.31    2 |   27.61    2 |   30.00    1 |   32.12    1  (afc east)
   3  Philadelphia Eagles     =  26.96   12   2   0   19.01(  25)   3  1  0 |   6  1  0 |   26.77    4 |   27.08    3 |   28.00    4 |   29.86    3  (NFC EAST)
   4  Green Bay Packers       =  26.87   10   4   0   21.55(   2)   1  4  0 |   4  4  0 |   27.13    3 |   26.32    5 |   28.27    3 |   29.67    4  (NFC NORTH)
   5  Baltimore Ravens        =  25.45    9   5   0   20.49(  13)   2  3  0 |   6  3  0 |   25.82    5 |   25.37    6 |   25.93    6 |   26.11    6  (afc north)
   6  Minnesota Vikings       =  24.81   12   2   0   19.38(  23)   2  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   24.28    6 |   24.80    7 |   26.17    5 |   28.44    5  (NFC NORTH)
   7  Kansas City Chiefs      =  23.99   13   1   0   18.85(  27)   2  1  0 |   5  1  0 |   23.42    7 |   26.56    4 |   23.12    8 |   22.87   11  (afc west)
   8  Houston Texans          =  23.17    9   5   0   19.78(  18)   1  3  0 |   1  3  0 |   23.11    8 |   23.05    8 |   23.81    7 |   23.55    9  (afc south)
   9  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  22.33   10   4   0   18.70(  28)   1  1  0 |   4  1  0 |   21.98   10 |   22.74    9 |   22.59   10 |   23.40   10  (afc north)
  10  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  22.17    8   6   0   19.66(  19)   2  2  0 |   3  4  0 |   22.66    9 |   21.57   11 |   22.63    9 |   24.19    8  (NFC SOUTH)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  11  San Francisco 49ers     =  21.61    6   8   0   21.18(   8)   1  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   21.90   11 |   22.31   10 |   20.73   15 |   19.07   19  (NFC WEST)
  12  Los Angeles Rams        =  21.49    8   6   0   21.50(   4)   2  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   21.57   13 |   21.44   12 |   21.65   12 |   22.00   12  (NFC WEST)
  13  Denver Broncos          =  21.48    9   5   0   18.30(  31)   1  3  0 |   1  4  0 |   21.86   12 |   20.61   14 |   22.26   11 |   25.03    7  (afc west)
  14  Seattle Seahawks        =  20.99    8   6   0   20.76(  11)   0  3  0 |   2  5  0 |   21.05   14 |   21.15   13 |   20.86   14 |   21.01   16  (NFC WEST)
  15  Cincinnati Bengals      =  20.75    6   8   0   18.70(  29)   0  5  0 |   0  6  0 |   21.00   15 |   20.11   17 |   21.30   13 |   20.99   17  (afc north)
  16  Washington Redskins     =  20.39    9   5   0   18.04(  32)   0  4  0 |   1  4  0 |   20.63   18 |   20.20   16 |   20.36   17 |   21.48   14  (NFC EAST)
  17  Miami Dolphins          =  20.38    6   8   0   19.62(  20)   0  4  0 |   1  5  0 |   20.87   16 |   19.63   19 |   20.71   16 |   19.94   18  (afc east)
  18  Arizona Cardinals       =  20.28    7   7   0   21.58(   1)   0  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   20.69   17 |   19.95   18 |   20.22   19 |   21.02   15  (NFC WEST)
  19  Los Angeles Chargers    =  20.07    8   6   0   19.13(  24)   0  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   19.69   19 |   20.25   15 |   20.28   18 |   21.70   13  (afc west)
  20  New York Jets           =  18.61    4  10   0   19.99(  15)   1  3  0 |   1  6  0 |   18.62   20 |   18.34   22 |   18.69   20 |   17.48   20  (afc east)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  21  Indianapolis Colts      =  17.85    6   8   0   21.52(   3)   1  6  0 |   1  7  0 |   17.57   21 |   18.50   21 |   17.06   23 |   16.21   23  (afc south)
  22  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.59    6   8   0   19.56(  21)   1  4  0 |   2  6  0 |   16.93   23 |   17.93   23 |   17.55   22 |   16.78   22  (NFC EAST)
  23  Chicago Bears           =  17.44    4  10   0   20.56(  12)   0  5  0 |   1  7  0 |   17.04   22 |   16.98   24 |   17.97   21 |   17.30   21  (NFC NORTH)
  24  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.34    7   7   0   19.94(  17)   3  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   16.28   25 |   18.53   20 |   16.64   25 |   16.19   24  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  16.50    3  11   0   21.33(   5)   0  7  0 |   0  7  0 |   16.26   26 |   15.97   26 |   16.78   24 |   16.13   25  (afc south)
  26  New Orleans Saints      =  16.34    5   9   0   18.33(  30)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   16.42   24 |   16.46   25 |   15.57   26 |   15.23   26  (NFC SOUTH)
  27  Cleveland Browns        =  14.81    3  11   0   19.96(  16)   2  3  0 |   2  6  0 |   15.02   27 |   14.90   27 |   13.69   27 |   11.01   28  (afc north)
  28  Tennessee Titans        =  14.25    3  11   0   21.19(   7)   1  4  0 |   1  6  0 |   14.05   28 |   14.72   28 |   13.04   28 |   10.86   29  (afc south)
  29  New England Patriots    =  13.36    3  11   0   19.52(  22)   0  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   13.43   29 |   13.12   29 |   12.56   29 |   11.49   27  (afc east)
  30  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.50    2  12   0   20.77(  10)   1  4  0 |   1  8  0 |   13.00   30 |   12.08   31 |   11.25   30 |    9.52   31  (afc west)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  31  New York Giants         =  12.05    2  12   0   19.99(  14)   0  5  0 |   1  8  0 |   12.25   31 |   12.38   30 |   10.17   32 |    8.27   32  (NFC EAST)
  32  Carolina Panthers       =  11.07    3  11   0   18.86(  26)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   11.06   32 |   10.56   32 |   10.28   31 |    9.78   30  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  24.95      24.51  (  1)      4      24.51  (  1)
   2  (NFC WEST)              =  21.14      21.09  (  2)      4      21.09  (  2)
   3  (afc north)             =  21.07      20.84  (  3)      4      20.84  (  3)
   4  (afc west)              =  19.93      19.51  (  5)      4      19.51  (  5)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.92      20.13  (  4)      4      20.13  (  4)
   6  (NFC EAST)              =  19.16      19.24  (  6)      4      19.24  (  6)
   7  (afc south)             =  17.69      17.94  (  7)      4      17.94  (  7)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.77      16.73  (  8)      4      16.73  (  8)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   6  (NFC EAST)              =  19.16      19.24  (  6)      4      19.24  (  6)
   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  24.95      24.51  (  1)      4      24.51  (  1)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.77      16.73  (  8)      4      16.73  (  8)
   2  (NFC WEST)              =  21.14      21.09  (  2)      4      21.09  (  2)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.92      20.13  (  4)      4      20.13  (  4)
   3  (afc north)             =  21.07      20.84  (  3)      4      20.84  (  3)
   7  (afc south)             =  17.69      17.94  (  7)      4      17.94  (  7)
   4  (afc west)              =  19.93      19.51  (  5)      4      19.51  (  5)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (NFC EAST)              =  19.16
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   3  Philadelphia Eagles     =  26.96   12   2   0   19.01(  25)   3  1  0 |   6  1  0 |   26.77    4 |   27.08    3 |   28.00    4 |   29.86    3  (NFC EAST)
  16  Washington Redskins     =  20.39    9   5   0   18.04(  32)   0  4  0 |   1  4  0 |   20.63   18 |   20.20   16 |   20.36   17 |   21.48   14  (NFC EAST)
  22  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.59    6   8   0   19.56(  21)   1  4  0 |   2  6  0 |   16.93   23 |   17.93   23 |   17.55   22 |   16.78   22  (NFC EAST)
  31  New York Giants         =  12.05    2  12   0   19.99(  14)   0  5  0 |   1  8  0 |   12.25   31 |   12.38   30 |   10.17   32 |    8.27   32  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  24.95
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   1  Detroit Lions           =  28.90   12   2   0   21.20(   6)   4  2  0 |   6  2  0 |   29.30    1 |   28.79    1 |   29.88    2 |   31.33    2  (NFC NORTH)
   4  Green Bay Packers       =  26.87   10   4   0   21.55(   2)   1  4  0 |   4  4  0 |   27.13    3 |   26.32    5 |   28.27    3 |   29.67    4  (NFC NORTH)
   6  Minnesota Vikings       =  24.81   12   2   0   19.38(  23)   2  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   24.28    6 |   24.80    7 |   26.17    5 |   28.44    5  (NFC NORTH)
  23  Chicago Bears           =  17.44    4  10   0   20.56(  12)   0  5  0 |   1  7  0 |   17.04   22 |   16.98   24 |   17.97   21 |   17.30   21  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.77
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  10  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  22.17    8   6   0   19.66(  19)   2  2  0 |   3  4  0 |   22.66    9 |   21.57   11 |   22.63    9 |   24.19    8  (NFC SOUTH)
  24  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.34    7   7   0   19.94(  17)   3  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   16.28   25 |   18.53   20 |   16.64   25 |   16.19   24  (NFC SOUTH)
  26  New Orleans Saints      =  16.34    5   9   0   18.33(  30)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   16.42   24 |   16.46   25 |   15.57   26 |   15.23   26  (NFC SOUTH)
  32  Carolina Panthers       =  11.07    3  11   0   18.86(  26)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   11.06   32 |   10.56   32 |   10.28   31 |    9.78   30  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (NFC WEST)              =  21.14
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
  11  San Francisco 49ers     =  21.61    6   8   0   21.18(   8)   1  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   21.90   11 |   22.31   10 |   20.73   15 |   19.07   19  (NFC WEST)
  12  Los Angeles Rams        =  21.49    8   6   0   21.50(   4)   2  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   21.57   13 |   21.44   12 |   21.65   12 |   22.00   12  (NFC WEST)
  14  Seattle Seahawks        =  20.99    8   6   0   20.76(  11)   0  3  0 |   2  5  0 |   21.05   14 |   21.15   13 |   20.86   14 |   21.01   16  (NFC WEST)
  18  Arizona Cardinals       =  20.28    7   7   0   21.58(   1)   0  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   20.69   17 |   19.95   18 |   20.22   19 |   21.02   15  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (afc east)              =  19.92
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   2  Buffalo Bills           =  28.19   11   3   0   21.09(   9)   2  2  0 |   4  3  0 |   28.31    2 |   27.61    2 |   30.00    1 |   32.12    1  (afc east)
  17  Miami Dolphins          =  20.38    6   8   0   19.62(  20)   0  4  0 |   1  5  0 |   20.87   16 |   19.63   19 |   20.71   16 |   19.94   18  (afc east)
  20  New York Jets           =  18.61    4  10   0   19.99(  15)   1  3  0 |   1  6  0 |   18.62   20 |   18.34   22 |   18.69   20 |   17.48   20  (afc east)
  29  New England Patriots    =  13.36    3  11   0   19.52(  22)   0  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   13.43   29 |   13.12   29 |   12.56   29 |   11.49   27  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (afc north)             =  21.07
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   5  Baltimore Ravens        =  25.45    9   5   0   20.49(  13)   2  3  0 |   6  3  0 |   25.82    5 |   25.37    6 |   25.93    6 |   26.11    6  (afc north)
   9  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  22.33   10   4   0   18.70(  28)   1  1  0 |   4  1  0 |   21.98   10 |   22.74    9 |   22.59   10 |   23.40   10  (afc north)
  15  Cincinnati Bengals      =  20.75    6   8   0   18.70(  29)   0  5  0 |   0  6  0 |   21.00   15 |   20.11   17 |   21.30   13 |   20.99   17  (afc north)
  27  Cleveland Browns        =  14.81    3  11   0   19.96(  16)   2  3  0 |   2  6  0 |   15.02   27 |   14.90   27 |   13.69   27 |   11.01   28  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (afc south)             =  17.69
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   8  Houston Texans          =  23.17    9   5   0   19.78(  18)   1  3  0 |   1  3  0 |   23.11    8 |   23.05    8 |   23.81    7 |   23.55    9  (afc south)
  21  Indianapolis Colts      =  17.85    6   8   0   21.52(   3)   1  6  0 |   1  7  0 |   17.57   21 |   18.50   21 |   17.06   23 |   16.21   23  (afc south)
  25  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  16.50    3  11   0   21.33(   5)   0  7  0 |   0  7  0 |   16.26   26 |   15.97   26 |   16.78   24 |   16.13   25  (afc south)
  28  Tennessee Titans        =  14.25    3  11   0   21.19(   7)   1  4  0 |   1  6  0 |   14.05   28 |   14.72   28 |   13.04   28 |   10.86   29  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc west)              =  19.93
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 December 15 Monday - Week #15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.86]                                                   [  0.99]       [  0.89]       [  0.70]       [  0.70]
   7  Kansas City Chiefs      =  23.99   13   1   0   18.85(  27)   2  1  0 |   5  1  0 |   23.42    7 |   26.56    4 |   23.12    8 |   22.87   11  (afc west)
  13  Denver Broncos          =  21.48    9   5   0   18.30(  31)   1  3  0 |   1  4  0 |   21.86   12 |   20.61   14 |   22.26   11 |   25.03    7  (afc west)
  19  Los Angeles Chargers    =  20.07    8   6   0   19.13(  24)   0  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   19.69   19 |   20.25   15 |   20.28   18 |   21.70   13  (afc west)
  30  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.50    2  12   0   20.77(  10)   1  4  0 |   1  8  0 |   13.00   30 |   12.08   31 |   11.25   30 |    9.52   31  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile 


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

                                      These are the "regular method".                                        _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                               _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                    _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite      _
                                                       Strong                        MONEYLINE=odds to 100   _
     FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG               ODDS   PCT%   TOTAL    _
==================================================================================================================
   @ Cincinnati Bengals     6.80   6.97   6.10   8.31  10.68   Cleveland Browns        247    71%   52.83
   @ Kansas City Chiefs     1.69   1.30   4.41   0.01   0.03   Houston Texans          126    56%   40.61
   @ Baltimore Ravens       3.99   4.82   3.52   4.04   3.42   Pittsburgh Steelers     172    63%   50.37
     Los Angeles Rams       2.01   1.96   2.20   2.25   3.82 @ New York Jets           132    57%   45.34
     Philadelphia Eagles    5.71   5.16   5.99   6.93   7.68 @ Washington Redskins     215    68%   47.85
   @ Buffalo Bills         15.70  15.86  15.38  18.15  21.34   New England Patriots    701    88%   49.90
     San Francisco 49ers    0.37   0.04   1.78  -0.68  -1.57 @ Miami Dolphins          105    51%   40.91
     Arizona Cardinals      8.35   8.65   8.49   9.24  10.53 @ Carolina Panthers       299    75%   45.47
   @ Atlanta Falcons        6.16   5.02   7.04   7.17   8.62   New York Giants         228    70%   37.44
   @ Indianapolis Colts     4.47   4.51   4.68   4.73   6.06   Tennessee Titans        183    65%   42.31
     Detroit Lions         10.60  11.27  10.92  11.20  13.33 @ Chicago Bears           392    80%   45.09
     Tampa Bay Buccaneers   3.72   4.74   2.75   4.37   6.72 @ Dallas Cowboys          166    62%   53.70
     Jacksonville Jaguars   3.13   2.27   3.00   4.82   5.91 @ Las Vegas Raiders       154    61%   44.95
     Denver Broncos         0.55   1.18  -0.54   1.27   2.63 @ Los Angeles Chargers    108    52%   35.93
     Minnesota Vikings      2.96   2.24   2.76   4.61   6.73 @ Seattle Seahawks        150    60%   45.70
   @ Green Bay Packers     11.39  11.69  10.75  13.40  15.14   New Orleans Saints      430    81%   45.93

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM
   @ Cincinnati Bengals     8.98   9.14   8.28  10.49  12.86   Cleveland Browns        323    76%   52.83  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Kansas City Chiefs     1.88   1.49   4.60   0.21   0.22   Houston Texans          130    56%   40.61  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Baltimore Ravens       4.90   5.73   4.43   4.95   4.33   Pittsburgh Steelers     194    66%   50.37  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Los Angeles Rams       0.65   0.60   0.83   0.89   2.46 @ New York Jets           109    52%   45.34  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Philadelphia Eagles    9.12   8.57   9.40  10.34  11.09 @ Washington Redskins     329    77%   47.85  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Buffalo Bills         25.79  25.96  25.48  28.24  31.43   New England Patriots   1891    95%   49.90  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Miami Dolphins         3.66   3.99   2.24   4.71   5.60   San Francisco 49ers     165    62%   40.91  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Arizona Cardinals      9.33   9.62   9.47  10.21  11.51 @ Carolina Panthers       337    77%   45.47  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Atlanta Falcons        3.13   1.99   4.01   4.15   5.59   New York Giants         154    61%   37.44  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Indianapolis Colts     9.99  10.03  10.21  10.25  11.59   Tennessee Titans        365    78%   42.31  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Detroit Lions         12.80  13.47  13.11  13.39  15.52 @ Chicago Bears           506    83%   45.09  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Tampa Bay Buccaneers  16.19  17.20  15.22  16.84  19.18 @ Dallas Cowboys          740    88%   53.70  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Jacksonville Jaguars   4.83   3.97   4.70   6.52   7.61 @ Las Vegas Raiders       192    66%   44.95  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Denver Broncos         2.29   2.93   1.21   3.02   4.37 @ Los Angeles Chargers    137    58%   35.93  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
     Minnesota Vikings      7.72   6.99   7.52   9.37  11.48 @ Seattle Seahawks        277    73%   45.70  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS
   @ Green Bay Packers     17.38  17.68  16.74  19.39  21.13   New Orleans Saints      842    89%   45.93  HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
   1    @ Cincinnati Bengals     5.86   219   69%    Cleveland Browns
   2    @ Kansas City Chiefs     6.53   239   70%    Houston Texans
   3    @ Baltimore Ravens       1.69   126   56%    Pittsburgh Steelers
   4      Los Angeles Rams       4.65   188   65%  @ New York Jets
   5      Philadelphia Eagles    5.47   209   68%  @ Washington Redskins
   6    @ Buffalo Bills         15.14   658   87%    New England Patriots
   7      San Francisco 49ers    1.25   119   54%  @ Miami Dolphins
   8      Arizona Cardinals      8.17   293   75%  @ Carolina Panthers
   9    @ Atlanta Falcons        7.89   283   74%    New York Giants
  10    @ Indianapolis Colts     5.76   216   68%    Tennessee Titans

  11      Detroit Lions         13.31   536   84%  @ Chicago Bears
  12      Tampa Bay Buccaneers   6.88   249   71%  @ Dallas Cowboys
  13      Jacksonville Jaguars   0.18   103   51%  @ Las Vegas Raiders
  14      Denver Broncos         0.80   112   53%  @ Los Angeles Chargers
  15      Minnesota Vikings      4.97   195   66%  @ Seattle Seahawks
  16    @ Green Bay Packers      9.99   365   78%    New Orleans Saints
endfile

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