United States Naval Observatory

 

Clock requires Netscape

note: clock runs for 30 seconds; it may skip seconds; to restart click reload

Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2025 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2025 Ratings through results of 2025 NOVEMBER 17 MONDAY - WEEK 11


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   1  Philadelphia Eagles     =  26.83    8   2   0   21.74(   3)   4  1  0 |   5  1  0 |   26.21    3 |   27.23    1 |   27.26    2 |   27.65    5  (NFC EAST)
   2  Detroit Lions           =  26.33    6   4   0   21.79(   2)   1  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   26.75    2 |   25.38    3 |   27.23    3 |   28.64    2  (NFC NORTH)
   3  Kansas City Chiefs      =  26.33    5   5   0   21.51(   5)   2  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   26.98    1 |   25.11    5 |   27.51    1 |   28.73    1  (afc west)
   4  Los Angeles Rams        =  25.46    8   2   0   20.54(  13)   3  1  0 |   5  2  0 |   25.84    4 |   26.05    2 |   24.70    6 |   28.52    3  (NFC WEST)
   5  Buffalo Bills           =  24.75    7   3   0   18.07(  30)   2  0  0 |   3  1  0 |   24.71    6 |   24.40    6 |   25.23    5 |   24.95    8  (afc east)
   6  Baltimore Ravens        =  24.16    5   5   0   21.00(   7)   0  4  0 |   0  5  0 |   23.77    7 |   23.41    9 |   25.64    4 |   25.53    6  (afc north)
   7  Denver Broncos          =  24.07    9   2   0   18.49(  29)   2  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   23.68    9 |   25.14    4 |   23.59    8 |   24.31    9  (afc west)
   8  Seattle Seahawks        =  24.03    7   3   0   19.92(  19)   0  1  0 |   2  3  0 |   24.73    5 |   23.92    8 |   23.55    9 |   27.83    4  (NFC WEST)
   9  Green Bay Packers       =  23.87    6   3   1   19.11(  26)   1  1  0 |   2  1  0 |   23.40   11 |   24.21    7 |   24.09    7 |   23.70   11  (NFC NORTH)
  10  Indianapolis Colts      =  22.65    8   2   0   17.62(  31)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   23.44   10 |   22.86   11 |   21.75   10 |   25.17    7  (afc south)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
  11  Houston Texans          =  22.64    5   5   0   20.61(  12)   1  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   23.75    8 |   22.90   10 |   21.45   12 |   21.65   12  (afc south)
  12  New England Patriots    =  21.89    9   2   0   16.21(  32)   1  0  0 |   2  1  0 |   21.93   12 |   22.07   13 |   21.67   11 |   24.08   10  (afc east)
  13  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  21.68    6   4   0   21.72(   4)   1  3  0 |   3  4  0 |   21.70   13 |   22.14   12 |   21.20   13 |   20.99   13  (NFC SOUTH)
  14  San Francisco 49ers     =  21.28    7   4   0   20.63(  11)   2  1  0 |   2  3  0 |   21.30   14 |   22.02   14 |   20.52   15 |   20.74   15  (NFC WEST)
  15  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.65    6   4   0   19.19(  23)   1  2  0 |   2  3  0 |   20.44   16 |   20.82   15 |   20.65   14 |   20.87   14  (afc north)
  16  Los Angeles Chargers    =  20.42    7   4   0   19.15(  24)   2  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   20.02   17 |   20.76   16 |   20.44   16 |   20.63   17  (afc west)
  17  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  20.25    6   4   0   20.81(   9)   1  2  0 |   4  3  0 |   20.52   15 |   20.76   17 |   19.43   20 |   20.69   16  (afc south)
  18  Chicago Bears           =  20.03    7   3   0   19.05(  27)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   19.13   19 |   20.52   18 |   20.39   17 |   20.55   18  (NFC NORTH)
  19  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.55    4   6   0   20.11(  17)   1  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   19.61   18 |   18.87   20 |   20.13   19 |   18.49   19  (NFC NORTH)
  20  Washington Redskins     =  19.28    3   8   0   20.21(  16)   0  4  0 |   1  4  0 |   18.47   20 |   19.12   19 |   20.20   18 |   16.19   23  (NFC EAST)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
  21  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.74    4   5   1   19.58(  22)   0  2  1 |   0  2  1 |   18.13   21 |   17.47   22 |   17.52   22 |   18.40   20  (NFC EAST)
  22  Arizona Cardinals       =  17.44    3   7   0   19.64(  21)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   17.48   22 |   17.54   21 |   17.20   23 |   16.23   22  (NFC WEST)
  23  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.06    3   7   0   19.70(  20)   1  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   16.68   23 |   16.68   24 |   17.69   21 |   17.33   21  (NFC SOUTH)
  24  Cincinnati Bengals      =  16.46    3   7   0   20.43(  15)   0  3  0 |   1  4  0 |   15.56   26 |   16.65   25 |   16.96   24 |   13.16   28  (afc north)
  25  Carolina Panthers       =  16.04    6   5   0   18.63(  28)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |   15.46   27 |   16.73   23 |   15.72   26 |   15.55   25  (NFC SOUTH)
  26  Miami Dolphins          =  15.83    4   7   0   19.96(  18)   1  3  0 |   1  5  0 |   15.96   25 |   15.96   26 |   15.42   27 |   15.66   24  (afc east)
  27  New York Giants         =  15.77    2   9   0   21.94(   1)   1  4  0 |   2  5  0 |   16.24   24 |   15.14   27 |   15.76   25 |   14.94   26  (NFC EAST)
  28  Las Vegas Raiders       =  14.94    2   8   0   20.54(  14)   0  3  0 |   1  4  0 |   14.46   29 |   14.88   28 |   15.29   28 |   12.74   30  (afc west)
  29  Cleveland Browns        =  14.50    2   8   0   20.97(   8)   1  3  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.62   28 |   14.12   29 |   14.58   29 |   12.96   29  (afc north)
  30  New York Jets           =  13.95    2   8   0   19.14(  25)   0  2  0 |   0  5  0 |   14.23   30 |   12.96   30 |   14.32   30 |   13.77   27  (afc east)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
  31  New Orleans Saints      =  12.17    2   8   0   20.79(  10)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   12.35   32 |   12.48   31 |   11.38   32 |   10.67   31  (NFC SOUTH)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  11.98    1   9   0   21.45(   6)   0  4  0 |   0  8  0 |   12.44   31 |   11.70   32 |   11.52   31 |    8.58   32  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
printstart 
Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.28      22.45  (  1)      4      22.43  (  1)  22.4462( 3.2318)  22.2244( 3.5706)  22.2461( 3.0569)  22.9613( 3.3722)
   2  (NFC WEST)              =  22.25      22.05  (  2)      4      22.08  (  2)  22.0505( 3.5308)  22.3384( 3.7737)  22.3850( 3.6223)  21.4927( 3.3621)
   3  (afc west)              =  21.71      21.44  (  3)      4      21.52  (  3)  21.4383( 4.9720)  21.2867( 5.3647)  21.4720( 4.8501)  21.7051( 5.1627)
   4  (afc south)             =  20.07      19.38  (  5)      4      19.56  (  5)  19.3803( 5.0640)  20.0378( 5.2707)  19.5538( 5.3336)  18.5387( 4.7930)
   5  (NFC EAST)              =  19.44      19.91  (  4)      4      19.77  (  4)  19.9050( 4.8315)  19.7613( 4.4074)  19.7371( 5.2523)  20.1843( 5.0553)
   6  (afc east)              =  19.02      19.10  (  6)      4      19.09  (  6)  19.1028( 5.0651)  19.2064( 4.9348)  18.8480( 5.2979)  19.1586( 5.1837)
   7  (afc north)             =  18.81      18.94  (  7)      4      18.91  (  7)  18.9399( 4.3235)  18.6004( 4.2907)  18.7502( 4.1577)  19.4599( 4.8208)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.67      16.74  (  8)      4      16.72  (  8)  16.7369( 3.9084)  16.5446( 3.8863)  17.0077( 3.9572)  16.4994( 4.0955)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.2866)  20.0000( 4.3595)  20.0000( 4.3595)  20.0000( 4.4415)

      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   5  (NFC EAST)              =  19.44      19.91  (  4)      4      19.77  (  4)  19.9050( 4.8315)  19.7613( 4.4074)  19.7371( 5.2523)  20.1843( 5.0553)
   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.28      22.45  (  1)      4      22.43  (  1)  22.4462( 3.2318)  22.2244( 3.5706)  22.2461( 3.0569)  22.9613( 3.3722)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.67      16.74  (  8)      4      16.72  (  8)  16.7369( 3.9084)  16.5446( 3.8863)  17.0077( 3.9572)  16.4994( 4.0955)
   2  (NFC WEST)              =  22.25      22.05  (  2)      4      22.08  (  2)  22.0505( 3.5308)  22.3384( 3.7737)  22.3850( 3.6223)  21.4927( 3.3621)
   6  (afc east)              =  19.02      19.10  (  6)      4      19.09  (  6)  19.1028( 5.0651)  19.2064( 4.9348)  18.8480( 5.2979)  19.1586( 5.1837)
   7  (afc north)             =  18.81      18.94  (  7)      4      18.91  (  7)  18.9399( 4.3235)  18.6004( 4.2907)  18.7502( 4.1577)  19.4599( 4.8208)
   4  (afc south)             =  20.07      19.38  (  5)      4      19.56  (  5)  19.3803( 5.0640)  20.0378( 5.2707)  19.5538( 5.3336)  18.5387( 4.7930)
   3  (afc west)              =  21.71      21.44  (  3)      4      21.52  (  3)  21.4383( 4.9720)  21.2867( 5.3647)  21.4720( 4.8501)  21.7051( 5.1627)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.2866)  20.0000( 4.3595)  20.0000( 4.3595)  20.0000( 4.4415)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (NFC EAST)              =  19.44
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   1  Philadelphia Eagles     =  26.83    8   2   0   21.74(   3)   4  1  0 |   5  1  0 |   26.21    3 |   27.23    1 |   27.26    2 |   27.65    5  (NFC EAST)
  20  Washington Redskins     =  19.28    3   8   0   20.21(  16)   0  4  0 |   1  4  0 |   18.47   20 |   19.12   19 |   20.20   18 |   16.19   23  (NFC EAST)
  21  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.74    4   5   1   19.58(  22)   0  2  1 |   0  2  1 |   18.13   21 |   17.47   22 |   17.52   22 |   18.40   20  (NFC EAST)
  27  New York Giants         =  15.77    2   9   0   21.94(   1)   1  4  0 |   2  5  0 |   16.24   24 |   15.14   27 |   15.76   25 |   14.94   26  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.28
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   2  Detroit Lions           =  26.33    6   4   0   21.79(   2)   1  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   26.75    2 |   25.38    3 |   27.23    3 |   28.64    2  (NFC NORTH)
   9  Green Bay Packers       =  23.87    6   3   1   19.11(  26)   1  1  0 |   2  1  0 |   23.40   11 |   24.21    7 |   24.09    7 |   23.70   11  (NFC NORTH)
  18  Chicago Bears           =  20.03    7   3   0   19.05(  27)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   19.13   19 |   20.52   18 |   20.39   17 |   20.55   18  (NFC NORTH)
  19  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.55    4   6   0   20.11(  17)   1  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   19.61   18 |   18.87   20 |   20.13   19 |   18.49   19  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.67
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
  13  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  21.68    6   4   0   21.72(   4)   1  3  0 |   3  4  0 |   21.70   13 |   22.14   12 |   21.20   13 |   20.99   13  (NFC SOUTH)
  23  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.06    3   7   0   19.70(  20)   1  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   16.68   23 |   16.68   24 |   17.69   21 |   17.33   21  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  Carolina Panthers       =  16.04    6   5   0   18.63(  28)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |   15.46   27 |   16.73   23 |   15.72   26 |   15.55   25  (NFC SOUTH)
  31  New Orleans Saints      =  12.17    2   8   0   20.79(  10)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   12.35   32 |   12.48   31 |   11.38   32 |   10.67   31  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (NFC WEST)              =  22.25
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   4  Los Angeles Rams        =  25.46    8   2   0   20.54(  13)   3  1  0 |   5  2  0 |   25.84    4 |   26.05    2 |   24.70    6 |   28.52    3  (NFC WEST)
   8  Seattle Seahawks        =  24.03    7   3   0   19.92(  19)   0  1  0 |   2  3  0 |   24.73    5 |   23.92    8 |   23.55    9 |   27.83    4  (NFC WEST)
  14  San Francisco 49ers     =  21.28    7   4   0   20.63(  11)   2  1  0 |   2  3  0 |   21.30   14 |   22.02   14 |   20.52   15 |   20.74   15  (NFC WEST)
  22  Arizona Cardinals       =  17.44    3   7   0   19.64(  21)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   17.48   22 |   17.54   21 |   17.20   23 |   16.23   22  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (afc east)              =  19.02
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   5  Buffalo Bills           =  24.75    7   3   0   18.07(  30)   2  0  0 |   3  1  0 |   24.71    6 |   24.40    6 |   25.23    5 |   24.95    8  (afc east)
  12  New England Patriots    =  21.89    9   2   0   16.21(  32)   1  0  0 |   2  1  0 |   21.93   12 |   22.07   13 |   21.67   11 |   24.08   10  (afc east)
  26  Miami Dolphins          =  15.83    4   7   0   19.96(  18)   1  3  0 |   1  5  0 |   15.96   25 |   15.96   26 |   15.42   27 |   15.66   24  (afc east)
  30  New York Jets           =  13.95    2   8   0   19.14(  25)   0  2  0 |   0  5  0 |   14.23   30 |   12.96   30 |   14.32   30 |   13.77   27  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (afc north)             =  18.81
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   6  Baltimore Ravens        =  24.16    5   5   0   21.00(   7)   0  4  0 |   0  5  0 |   23.77    7 |   23.41    9 |   25.64    4 |   25.53    6  (afc north)
  15  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.65    6   4   0   19.19(  23)   1  2  0 |   2  3  0 |   20.44   16 |   20.82   15 |   20.65   14 |   20.87   14  (afc north)
  24  Cincinnati Bengals      =  16.46    3   7   0   20.43(  15)   0  3  0 |   1  4  0 |   15.56   26 |   16.65   25 |   16.96   24 |   13.16   28  (afc north)
  29  Cleveland Browns        =  14.50    2   8   0   20.97(   8)   1  3  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.62   28 |   14.12   29 |   14.58   29 |   12.96   29  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc south)             =  20.07
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
  10  Indianapolis Colts      =  22.65    8   2   0   17.62(  31)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   23.44   10 |   22.86   11 |   21.75   10 |   25.17    7  (afc south)
  11  Houston Texans          =  22.64    5   5   0   20.61(  12)   1  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   23.75    8 |   22.90   10 |   21.45   12 |   21.65   12  (afc south)
  17  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  20.25    6   4   0   20.81(   9)   1  2  0 |   4  3  0 |   20.52   15 |   20.76   17 |   19.43   20 |   20.69   16  (afc south)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  11.98    1   9   0   21.45(   6)   0  4  0 |   0  8  0 |   12.44   31 |   11.70   32 |   11.52   31 |    8.58   32  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (afc west)              =  21.71
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.58]                                                   [  2.66]       [  2.61]       [  2.48]       [  2.48]
   3  Kansas City Chiefs      =  26.33    5   5   0   21.51(   5)   2  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   26.98    1 |   25.11    5 |   27.51    1 |   28.73    1  (afc west)
   7  Denver Broncos          =  24.07    9   2   0   18.49(  29)   2  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   23.68    9 |   25.14    4 |   23.59    8 |   24.31    9  (afc west)
  16  Los Angeles Chargers    =  20.42    7   4   0   19.15(  24)   2  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   20.02   17 |   20.76   16 |   20.44   16 |   20.63   17  (afc west)
  28  Las Vegas Raiders       =  14.94    2   8   0   20.54(  14)   0  3  0 |   1  4  0 |   14.46   29 |   14.88   28 |   15.29   28 |   12.74   30  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                      These are the "regular method".                                                           _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                                                  _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                                       _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite                         _
                                                            Strong                   MONEYLINE=odds to 100                      _
          FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG                ODDS   PCT%                 TOTAL   _
====================================================================================================================================
endfile 


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.58   2.66   2.61   2.48   2.48
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Houston Texans         0.48   1.69   1.11  -1.30  -0.81   Buffalo Bills            107    52%   25.17  19.32  44.49
    2   @ Baltimore Ravens      12.80  12.20  13.07  13.81  14.24   New York Jets            494    83%   30.38  18.60  48.98
    3   @ Detroit Lions         13.14  13.17  12.86  13.96  16.18   New York Giants          514    84%   31.34  18.18  49.52
    4     New England Patriots   2.85   3.71   2.82   2.22   8.43 @ Cincinnati Bengals       147    60%   20.04  31.61  51.65
    5     Seattle Seahawks       9.47   9.64   9.62   9.55  16.76 @ Tennessee Titans         337    77%   12.98  32.51  45.49
    6   @ Chicago Bears          1.97   1.35   2.32   2.22   2.16   Pittsburgh Steelers      131    57%   23.87  23.39  47.26
    7   @ Green Bay Packers      6.90   6.44   7.95   6.44   7.69   Minnesota Vikings        247    71%   25.41  17.39  42.79
    8     Atlanta Falcons        2.31   1.67   1.59   3.83   4.18 @ New Orleans Saints       137    58%   19.84  20.64  40.48
    9   @ Kansas City Chiefs     6.26   6.19   4.86   8.24   6.05   Indianapolis Colts       228    70%   25.15  23.51  48.66
   10     Philadelphia Eagles    6.50   5.42   7.15   7.25   6.77 @ Dallas Cowboys           235    70%   24.07  27.20  51.26
   11     Jacksonville Jaguars   0.23   0.39   0.60  -0.25   1.98 @ Arizona Cardinals        103    51%   22.43  24.73  47.16
   12   @ Las Vegas Raiders      3.03   2.50   3.37   3.19   2.26   Cleveland Browns         151    60%   20.20  17.64  37.83
   13   @ Los Angeles Rams       6.36   6.80   6.52   5.98  10.02   Tampa Bay Buccaneers     231    70%   29.62  17.48  47.09
   14   @ San Francisco 49ers    7.82   8.50   7.90   7.28   7.68   Carolina Panthers        276    73%   27.88  15.80  43.68
EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 November 17 Monday - Week 11
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.58   2.66   2.61   2.48   2.48
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Houston Texans         2.74   3.95   3.38   0.97   1.45   Buffalo Bills            145    59%   25.17  19.32  44.49
    2   @ Baltimore Ravens       8.66   8.06   8.93   9.67  10.10   New York Jets            306    75%   30.38  18.60  48.98
    3   @ Detroit Lions         20.90  20.93  20.62  21.72  23.94   New York Giants         1172    92%   31.34  18.18  49.52
    4     New England Patriots  14.58  15.44  14.55  13.96  20.17 @ Cincinnati Bengals       604    86%   20.04  31.61  51.65
    5     Seattle Seahawks      25.25  25.42  25.40  25.33  32.54 @ Tennessee Titans        1747    95%   12.98  32.51  45.49
    6   @ Chicago Bears          5.37   4.76   5.73   5.63   5.57   Pittsburgh Steelers      204    67%   23.87  23.39  47.26
    7   @ Green Bay Packers      6.85   6.39   7.89   6.39   7.64   Minnesota Vikings        245    71%   25.41  17.39  42.79
    8     Atlanta Falcons        3.60   2.96   2.89   5.12   5.48 @ New Orleans Saints       162    62%   19.84  20.64  40.48
    9   @ Kansas City Chiefs     8.37   8.30   6.96  10.34   8.16   Indianapolis Colts       295    75%   25.15  23.51  48.66
   10     Philadelphia Eagles    5.43   4.35   6.07   6.18   5.70 @ Dallas Cowboys           205    67%   24.07  27.20  51.26
   11     Jacksonville Jaguars   5.59   5.75   5.96   5.11   7.33 @ Arizona Cardinals        210    68%   22.43  24.73  47.16
   12   @ Las Vegas Raiders      7.12   6.59   7.46   7.29   6.36   Cleveland Browns         254    72%   20.20  17.64  37.83
   13   @ Los Angeles Rams       8.79   9.23   8.96   8.41  12.45   Tampa Bay Buccaneers     311    76%   29.62  17.48  47.09
   14   @ San Francisco 49ers    2.41   3.10   2.49   1.87   2.27   Carolina Panthers        139    58%   27.88  15.80  43.68

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1  @ Houston Texans         1.22   118   54%    Buffalo Bills
    2  @ Baltimore Ravens       9.32   330   77%    New York Jets
    3  @ Detroit Lions          9.99   358   78%    New York Giants
    4    New England Patriots  10.63   386   79%  @ Cincinnati Bengals
    5    Seattle Seahawks      13.83   555   85%  @ Tennessee Titans
    6  @ Chicago Bears          2.01   131   57%    Pittsburgh Steelers
    7  @ Green Bay Packers      8.15   287   74%    Minnesota Vikings
    8    Atlanta Falcons        2.27   136   58%  @ New Orleans Saints
    9    Indianapolis Colts     1.11   116   54%  @ Kansas City Chiefs
   10    Philadelphia Eagles    5.92   218   69%  @ Dallas Cowboys
   11    Jacksonville Jaguars   2.72   144   59%  @ Arizona Cardinals
   12  @ Las Vegas Raiders      1.48   122   55%    Cleveland Browns
   13  @ Los Angeles Rams      10.23   368   79%    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   14  @ San Francisco 49ers    7.45   264   73%    Carolina Panthers
endfile

Top_of_Page