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Jeff Sagarin's^tm NFL Ratings

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Email: Jeff Sagarin



"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

NFL 2025 Ratings through results of 2025 SEPTEMBER 8 MONDAY

this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 2 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 4 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 8 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 1 Philadelphia Eagles = 26.65 1 0 0 14.01( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 26.66 1 | 27.06 1 | 26.88 2 | 21.94 14 (NFC EAST) 2 Baltimore Ravens = 26.27 0 1 0 28.36( 2) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 26.51 2 | 25.89 2 | 27.06 1 | 27.69 2 (afc north) 3 Buffalo Bills = 25.44 1 0 0 23.36( 8) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 25.50 3 | 25.50 3 | 25.84 3 | 25.20 6 (afc east) 4 Kansas City Chiefs = 24.75 0 1 0 21.42( 13) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 24.95 4 | 24.67 4 | 25.07 5 | 19.70 19 (afc west) 5 Green Bay Packers = 24.63 1 0 0 21.22( 15) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 24.48 6 | 24.46 5 | 25.46 4 | 31.24 1 (NFC NORTH) 6 Washington Redskins = 24.50 1 0 0 13.17( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 24.50 5 | 24.40 6 | 25.02 6 | 27.48 3 (NFC EAST) 7 Detroit Lions = 24.13 0 1 0 27.54( 3) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 24.27 7 | 24.14 7 | 24.34 7 | 18.55 21 (NFC NORTH) 8 Denver Broncos = 22.25 1 0 0 12.20( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.21 8 | 22.51 8 | 22.24 8 | 20.81 16 (afc west) 9 Minnesota Vikings = 21.96 1 0 0 22.63( 9) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.89 9 | 21.97 9 | 22.20 9 | 24.76 7 (NFC NORTH) 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 21.66 1 0 0 21.25( 14) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.59 10 | 21.72 11 | 21.81 10 | 23.67 11 (NFC SOUTH) NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 11 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.48 1 0 0 18.53( 20) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.41 11 | 21.73 10 | 21.41 12 | 20.07 18 (afc north) 12 Los Angeles Chargers = 21.42 1 0 0 24.75( 6) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 21.26 12 | 21.37 12 | 21.79 11 | 27.17 4 (afc west) 13 Los Angeles Rams = 21.07 1 0 0 17.62( 23) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.99 13 | 21.19 13 | 21.13 13 | 22.35 12 (NFC WEST) 14 San Francisco 49ers = 20.81 1 0 0 21.50( 12) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 20.70 14 | 20.84 14 | 20.96 14 | 24.14 10 (NFC WEST) 15 Houston Texans = 20.53 0 1 0 23.98( 7) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 20.65 15 | 20.37 16 | 20.63 15 | 19.40 20 (afc south) 16 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.36 1 0 0 18.17( 21) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 20.25 16 | 20.58 15 | 20.26 16 | 20.17 17 (afc north) 17 Chicago Bears = 19.72 0 1 0 19.05( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.81 17 | 19.66 17 | 19.65 17 | 17.09 22 (NFC NORTH) 18 Arizona Cardinals = 19.31 1 0 0 15.17( 27) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.17 18 | 19.46 18 | 19.22 18 | 21.28 15 (NFC WEST) 19 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.06 1 0 0 20.99( 16) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.90 19 | 19.06 19 | 19.14 19 | 24.34 9 (afc west) 20 Indianapolis Colts = 18.72 1 0 0 11.64( 32) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.62 21 | 18.47 22 | 18.97 20 | 26.54 5 (afc south) NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 21 Jacksonville Jaguars = 18.66 1 0 0 12.94( 30) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.55 22 | 18.55 21 | 18.77 21 | 24.43 8 (afc south) 22 Seattle Seahawks = 18.59 0 1 0 17.90( 22) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.67 20 | 18.58 20 | 18.38 22 | 15.20 26 (NFC WEST) 23 Atlanta Falcons = 18.33 0 1 0 18.75( 18) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.39 23 | 18.27 23 | 18.19 23 | 16.32 24 (NFC SOUTH) 24 New England Patriots = 18.08 0 1 0 16.15( 26) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.22 24 | 18.14 24 | 17.68 24 | 12.48 29 (afc east) 25 Dallas Cowboys = 16.92 0 1 0 29.56( 1) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 17.00 25 | 16.41 25 | 17.06 25 | 22.00 13 (NFC EAST) 26 New York Giants = 16.08 0 1 0 27.41( 4) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.06 26 | 16.17 26 | 15.63 26 | 13.17 28 (NFC EAST) 27 Carolina Panthers = 15.85 0 1 0 21.57( 11) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 15.96 27 | 16.06 27 | 15.09 28 | 9.43 30 (NFC SOUTH) 28 Cleveland Browns = 15.62 0 1 0 18.57( 19) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.58 28 | 15.47 28 | 15.43 27 | 16.77 23 (afc north) 29 New York Jets = 15.26 0 1 0 17.45( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.22 29 | 15.18 29 | 14.95 29 | 15.03 27 (afc east) 30 Tennessee Titans = 15.11 0 1 0 25.16( 5) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.05 30 | 14.94 30 | 14.88 30 | 16.31 25 (afc south) NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 31 Miami Dolphins = 14.55 0 1 0 21.63( 10) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 14.71 31 | 14.87 31 | 13.42 31 | 5.85 32 (afc east) 32 New Orleans Saints = 12.26 0 1 0 16.40( 25) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 12.27 32 | 12.32 32 | 11.45 32 | 9.40 31 (NFC SOUTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 (NFC NORTH) = 22.75 22.61 ( 1) 4 22.61 ( 1) 2 (afc west) = 21.86 21.87 ( 2) 4 21.87 ( 2) 3 (NFC EAST) = 20.93 21.04 ( 3) 4 21.04 ( 3) 4 (afc north) = 20.93 20.93 ( 4) 4 20.93 ( 4) 5 (NFC WEST) = 19.98 19.94 ( 5) 4 19.94 ( 5) 6 (afc south) = 18.40 18.25 ( 7) 4 18.25 ( 7) 7 (afc east) = 17.78 18.33 ( 6) 4 18.33 ( 6) 8 (NFC SOUTH) = 17.05 17.02 ( 8) 4 17.02 ( 8) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 3 (NFC EAST) = 20.93 21.04 ( 3) 4 21.04 ( 3) 1 (NFC NORTH) = 22.75 22.61 ( 1) 4 22.61 ( 1) 8 (NFC SOUTH) = 17.05 17.02 ( 8) 4 17.02 ( 8) 5 (NFC WEST) = 19.98 19.94 ( 5) 4 19.94 ( 5) 7 (afc east) = 17.78 18.33 ( 6) 4 18.33 ( 6) 4 (afc north) = 20.93 20.93 ( 4) 4 20.93 ( 4) 6 (afc south) = 18.40 18.25 ( 7) 4 18.25 ( 7) 2 (afc west) = 21.86 21.87 ( 2) 4 21.87 ( 2) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 (NFC EAST) = 20.93 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 1 Philadelphia Eagles = 26.65 1 0 0 14.01( 28) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 26.66 1 | 27.06 1 | 26.88 2 | 21.94 14 (NFC EAST) 6 Washington Redskins = 24.50 1 0 0 13.17( 29) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 24.50 5 | 24.40 6 | 25.02 6 | 27.48 3 (NFC EAST) 25 Dallas Cowboys = 16.92 0 1 0 29.56( 1) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 17.00 25 | 16.41 25 | 17.06 25 | 22.00 13 (NFC EAST) 26 New York Giants = 16.08 0 1 0 27.41( 4) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 16.06 26 | 16.17 26 | 15.63 26 | 13.17 28 (NFC EAST) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 (NFC NORTH) = 22.75 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 5 Green Bay Packers = 24.63 1 0 0 21.22( 15) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 24.48 6 | 24.46 5 | 25.46 4 | 31.24 1 (NFC NORTH) 7 Detroit Lions = 24.13 0 1 0 27.54( 3) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 24.27 7 | 24.14 7 | 24.34 7 | 18.55 21 (NFC NORTH) 9 Minnesota Vikings = 21.96 1 0 0 22.63( 9) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.89 9 | 21.97 9 | 22.20 9 | 24.76 7 (NFC NORTH) 17 Chicago Bears = 19.72 0 1 0 19.05( 17) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 19.81 17 | 19.66 17 | 19.65 17 | 17.09 22 (NFC NORTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 (NFC SOUTH) = 17.05 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 21.66 1 0 0 21.25( 14) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.59 10 | 21.72 11 | 21.81 10 | 23.67 11 (NFC SOUTH) 23 Atlanta Falcons = 18.33 0 1 0 18.75( 18) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.39 23 | 18.27 23 | 18.19 23 | 16.32 24 (NFC SOUTH) 27 Carolina Panthers = 15.85 0 1 0 21.57( 11) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 15.96 27 | 16.06 27 | 15.09 28 | 9.43 30 (NFC SOUTH) 32 New Orleans Saints = 12.26 0 1 0 16.40( 25) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 12.27 32 | 12.32 32 | 11.45 32 | 9.40 31 (NFC SOUTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 (NFC WEST) = 19.98 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 13 Los Angeles Rams = 21.07 1 0 0 17.62( 23) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 20.99 13 | 21.19 13 | 21.13 13 | 22.35 12 (NFC WEST) 14 San Francisco 49ers = 20.81 1 0 0 21.50( 12) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 20.70 14 | 20.84 14 | 20.96 14 | 24.14 10 (NFC WEST) 18 Arizona Cardinals = 19.31 1 0 0 15.17( 27) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 19.17 18 | 19.46 18 | 19.22 18 | 21.28 15 (NFC WEST) 22 Seattle Seahawks = 18.59 0 1 0 17.90( 22) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 18.67 20 | 18.58 20 | 18.38 22 | 15.20 26 (NFC WEST) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 (afc east) = 17.78 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 3 Buffalo Bills = 25.44 1 0 0 23.36( 8) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 25.50 3 | 25.50 3 | 25.84 3 | 25.20 6 (afc east) 24 New England Patriots = 18.08 0 1 0 16.15( 26) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.22 24 | 18.14 24 | 17.68 24 | 12.48 29 (afc east) 29 New York Jets = 15.26 0 1 0 17.45( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.22 29 | 15.18 29 | 14.95 29 | 15.03 27 (afc east) 31 Miami Dolphins = 14.55 0 1 0 21.63( 10) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 14.71 31 | 14.87 31 | 13.42 31 | 5.85 32 (afc east) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 (afc north) = 20.93 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 2 Baltimore Ravens = 26.27 0 1 0 28.36( 2) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 26.51 2 | 25.89 2 | 27.06 1 | 27.69 2 (afc north) 11 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.48 1 0 0 18.53( 20) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 21.41 11 | 21.73 10 | 21.41 12 | 20.07 18 (afc north) 16 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.36 1 0 0 18.17( 21) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 20.25 16 | 20.58 15 | 20.26 16 | 20.17 17 (afc north) 28 Cleveland Browns = 15.62 0 1 0 18.57( 19) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.58 28 | 15.47 28 | 15.43 27 | 16.77 23 (afc north) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 (afc south) = 18.40 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 15 Houston Texans = 20.53 0 1 0 23.98( 7) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 20.65 15 | 20.37 16 | 20.63 15 | 19.40 20 (afc south) 20 Indianapolis Colts = 18.72 1 0 0 11.64( 32) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.62 21 | 18.47 22 | 18.97 20 | 26.54 5 (afc south) 21 Jacksonville Jaguars = 18.66 1 0 0 12.94( 30) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.55 22 | 18.55 21 | 18.77 21 | 24.43 8 (afc south) 30 Tennessee Titans = 15.11 0 1 0 25.16( 5) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 15.05 30 | 14.94 30 | 14.88 30 | 16.31 25 (afc south) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 (afc west) = 21.86 NFL 2025 through games of 2025 September 8 Monday - Week #1 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] [ 2.91] 4 Kansas City Chiefs = 24.75 0 1 0 21.42( 13) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 24.95 4 | 24.67 4 | 25.07 5 | 19.70 19 (afc west) 8 Denver Broncos = 22.25 1 0 0 12.20( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.21 8 | 22.51 8 | 22.24 8 | 20.81 16 (afc west) 12 Los Angeles Chargers = 21.42 1 0 0 24.75( 6) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 21.26 12 | 21.37 12 | 21.79 11 | 27.17 4 (afc west) 19 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.06 1 0 0 20.99( 16) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 18.90 19 | 19.06 19 | 19.14 19 | 24.34 9 (afc west) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================== @ Green Bay Packers 3.04 2.89 2.96 3.35 6.68 Washington Redskins 148 60% 32.97 Buffalo Bills 7.27 7.37 7.40 7.98 7.26 @ New York Jets 247 71% 56.51 @ Baltimore Ravens 13.55 13.84 13.33 14.54 13.84 Cleveland Browns 499 83% 49.97 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 4.68 4.49 4.91 4.79 7.88 Seattle Seahawks 181 64% 43.41 New England Patriots 0.62 0.60 0.36 1.35 3.72 @ Miami Dolphins 108 52% 34.06 @ Detroit Lions 7.32 7.37 7.40 7.59 4.37 Chicago Bears 249 71% 44.15 @ Cincinnati Bengals 5.73 5.77 6.09 5.55 -1.45 Jacksonville Jaguars 206 67% 33.62 Denver Broncos 0.63 0.68 1.13 0.36 -8.64 @ Indianapolis Colts 108 52% 33.85 Los Angeles Rams 3.05 3.02 3.33 3.34 3.13 @ Tennessee Titans 148 60% 31.84 San Francisco 49ers 5.64 5.53 5.60 6.60 11.83 @ New Orleans Saints 204 67% 32.74 @ Minnesota Vikings 6.53 6.41 6.61 6.92 11.35 Atlanta Falcons 227 69% 46.63 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1.01 1.20 0.52 1.09 0.67 Philadelphia Eagles 114 53% 45.82 @ Dallas Cowboys 3.75 3.84 3.16 4.34 11.74 New York Giants 162 62% 33.95 @ Arizona Cardinals 6.37 6.12 6.32 7.05 14.76 Carolina Panthers 222 69% 34.95 @ Houston Texans 1.79 1.98 1.56 1.73 -1.36 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 126 56% 33.42 @ Las Vegas Raiders 0.55 0.55 0.61 0.25 0.08 Los Angeles Chargers 107 52% 38.49 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM @ Green Bay Packers 12.16 12.00 12.08 12.46 15.79 Washington Redskins 429 81% 32.97 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Buffalo Bills 6.47 6.56 6.60 7.17 6.45 @ New York Jets 225 69% 56.51 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Baltimore Ravens 12.85 13.14 12.63 13.84 13.13 Cleveland Browns 463 82% 49.97 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7.77 7.58 8.00 7.88 10.97 Seattle Seahawks 262 72% 43.41 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS New England Patriots 2.99 2.97 2.73 3.72 6.08 @ Miami Dolphins 147 60% 34.06 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Detroit Lions 4.10 4.16 4.18 4.37 1.15 Chicago Bears 169 63% 44.15 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Jacksonville Jaguars 1.27 1.22 0.90 1.45 8.44 @ Cincinnati Bengals 118 54% 33.62 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Indianapolis Colts 15.95 15.89 15.44 16.21 25.21 Denver Broncos 643 87% 33.85 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Los Angeles Rams 2.84 2.81 3.13 3.13 2.92 @ Tennessee Titans 144 59% 31.84 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS San Francisco 49ers 16.10 15.99 16.07 17.06 22.29 @ New Orleans Saints 654 87% 32.74 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Minnesota Vikings 10.96 10.83 11.04 11.35 15.78 Atlanta Falcons 376 79% 46.63 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Kansas City Chiefs 0.58 0.77 0.09 0.67 0.24 Philadelphia Eagles 108 52% 45.82 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Dallas Cowboys 13.61 13.70 13.01 14.20 21.59 New York Giants 502 83% 33.95 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Arizona Cardinals 19.74 19.49 19.68 20.42 28.13 Carolina Panthers 945 90% 34.95 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.16 2.97 3.39 3.22 6.31 @ Houston Texans 150 60% 33.42 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS @ Las Vegas Raiders 0.38 0.38 0.44 0.08 -0.09 Los Angeles Chargers 105 51% 38.49 HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENT ... EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Green Bay Packers 2.38 136 58% Washington Redskins 2 Buffalo Bills 1.13 116 54% @ New York Jets 3 @ Baltimore Ravens 4.59 179 64% Cleveland Browns 4 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 9.30 312 76% Seattle Seahawks 5 @ Miami Dolphins 1.45 121 55% New England Patriots 6 @ Detroit Lions 1.96 129 56% Chicago Bears 7 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1.24 117 54% Jacksonville Jaguars 8 @ Indianapolis Colts 5.20 193 66% Denver Broncos 9 Los Angeles Rams 2.56 139 58% @ Tennessee Titans 10 San Francisco 49ers 4.59 179 64% @ New Orleans Saints 11 @ Minnesota Vikings 9.22 310 76% Atlanta Falcons 12 Philadelphia Eagles 2.12 131 57% @ Kansas City Chiefs 13 @ Dallas Cowboys 5.70 205 67% New York Giants 14 @ Arizona Cardinals 11.42 396 80% Carolina Panthers 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.66 141 58% @ Houston Texans 16 @ Las Vegas Raiders 3.81 163 62% Los Angeles Chargers endfile
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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

Divisional Rankings

By Division

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

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Jeff Sagarin's^tm NFL Ratings