United States Naval Observatory
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"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the manpower for that war. The policies - determining who would be drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic disgrace. I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable (someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are too good to risk. I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."
Final NFL 2023 Ratings through results of 2024 FEBRUARY 11 SUNDAY - SUPER BOWL
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 2 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 4 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 8 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
1 Baltimore Ravens = 27.66 14 5 0 20.07( 22) 5 1 0 | 8 4 0 | 27.81 1 | 27.55 1 | 27.89 1 (afc north)
2 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.90 15 6 0 21.60( 1) 6 4 0 | 7 4 0 | 26.44 3 | 27.07 2 | 27.52 2 (afc west)
3 San Francisco 49ers = 26.55 14 6 0 20.18( 19) 4 3 0 | 8 5 0 | 27.06 2 | 26.75 3 | 26.19 5 (NFC WEST)
4 Buffalo Bills = 26.16 12 7 0 20.06( 23) 4 3 0 | 6 4 0 | 26.44 4 | 25.63 4 | 26.73 3 (afc east)
5 Dallas Cowboys = 25.19 12 6 0 18.85( 29) 2 5 0 | 3 5 0 | 26.07 5 | 23.87 6 | 26.44 4 (NFC EAST)
6 Detroit Lions = 23.67 14 6 0 20.44( 12) 2 4 0 | 6 4 0 | 23.36 7 | 24.20 5 | 23.62 7 (NFC NORTH)
7 Miami Dolphins = 23.65 11 7 0 20.09( 21) 1 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 24.03 6 | 23.33 7 | 23.75 6 (afc east)
8 Cincinnati Bengals = 22.51 9 8 0 21.08( 3) 2 3 0 | 5 6 0 | 22.00 8 | 22.75 9 | 22.91 8 (afc north)
9 Philadelphia Eagles = 21.69 11 7 0 20.25( 17) 4 2 0 | 6 3 0 | 21.17 11 | 22.82 8 | 21.23 9 (NFC EAST)
10 Green Bay Packers = 21.24 10 9 0 20.57( 9) 3 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 21.39 9 | 21.17 11 | 21.22 10 (NFC NORTH)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
11 Cleveland Browns = 21.11 11 7 0 20.43( 13) 3 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 20.96 12 | 21.70 10 | 20.72 12 (afc north)
12 Jacksonville Jaguars = 20.78 9 8 0 20.18( 18) 1 4 0 | 3 6 0 | 20.81 13 | 20.93 12 | 20.62 13 (afc south)
13 New Orleans Saints = 20.71 9 8 0 18.04( 31) 0 2 0 | 1 5 0 | 21.28 10 | 20.02 15 | 20.88 11 (NFC SOUTH)
14 Los Angeles Rams = 20.26 10 8 0 20.73( 8) 1 7 0 | 3 8 0 | 20.37 14 | 20.22 14 | 20.19 14 (NFC WEST)
15 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.06 10 8 0 21.02( 4) 5 2 0 | 7 4 0 | 19.53 18 | 20.62 13 | 20.04 15 (afc north)
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 19.70 10 9 0 19.75( 26) 2 5 0 | 4 6 0 | 20.00 15 | 19.76 17 | 19.33 19 (NFC SOUTH)
17 Minnesota Vikings = 19.65 7 10 0 20.77( 7) 2 6 0 | 3 7 0 | 19.89 16 | 19.60 18 | 19.46 18 (NFC NORTH)
18 Los Angeles Chargers = 19.56 5 12 0 21.43( 2) 0 8 0 | 0 8 0 | 19.83 17 | 18.89 22 | 19.95 16 (afc west)
19 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.32 8 9 0 20.42( 14) 2 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 19.50 19 | 18.97 21 | 19.48 17 (afc west)
20 Seattle Seahawks = 19.27 9 8 0 20.16( 20) 2 5 0 | 3 8 0 | 18.81 21 | 19.90 16 | 19.05 21 (NFC WEST)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
21 Denver Broncos = 19.09 8 9 0 20.52( 10) 3 3 0 | 4 3 0 | 18.36 22 | 19.58 19 | 19.27 20 (afc west)
22 Houston Texans = 18.81 11 8 0 19.07( 28) 1 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 19.10 20 | 19.42 20 | 17.77 24 (afc south)
23 New York Jets = 18.44 7 10 0 20.29( 16) 2 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 17.81 24 | 18.78 23 | 18.66 22 (afc east)
24 Chicago Bears = 18.22 7 10 0 19.61( 27) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 18.19 23 | 17.87 24 | 18.54 23 (NFC NORTH)
25 Indianapolis Colts = 16.88 9 8 0 18.83( 30) 1 1 0 | 3 6 0 | 16.95 25 | 17.47 25 | 16.01 27 (afc south)
26 Tennessee Titans = 16.50 6 11 0 19.77( 25) 2 1 0 | 3 6 0 | 16.77 26 | 16.61 26 | 15.94 28 (afc south)
27 New York Giants = 15.98 6 11 0 20.48( 11) 2 6 0 | 2 8 0 | 14.95 29 | 15.96 28 | 16.71 26 (NFC EAST)
28 New England Patriots = 15.98 4 13 0 20.91( 6) 1 6 0 | 2 7 0 | 15.68 28 | 14.88 29 | 16.98 25 (afc east)
29 Atlanta Falcons = 15.94 7 10 0 18.01( 32) 1 1 0 | 3 4 0 | 16.02 27 | 16.14 27 | 15.48 29 (NFC SOUTH)
30 Arizona Cardinals = 13.30 4 13 0 20.92( 5) 2 4 0 | 3 7 0 | 13.53 30 | 13.26 30 | 12.84 31 (NFC WEST)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
31 Washington Redskins = 13.08 4 13 0 20.37( 15) 0 7 0 | 0 8 0 | 12.89 32 | 12.89 31 | 13.19 30 (NFC EAST)
32 Carolina Panthers = 12.15 2 15 0 19.94( 24) 0 4 0 | 0 9 0 | 13.00 31 | 11.39 32 | 11.38 32 (NFC SOUTH)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 (afc north) = 22.49 22.83 ( 1) 4 22.79 ( 1)
2 (afc east) = 21.05 21.06 ( 3) 4 21.06 ( 3)
3 (afc west) = 20.62 21.22 ( 2) 4 21.13 ( 2)
4 (NFC NORTH) = 20.61 20.70 ( 4) 4 20.69 ( 4)
5 (NFC WEST) = 19.82 19.84 ( 5) 4 19.83 ( 5)
6 (NFC EAST) = 18.94 18.99 ( 6) 4 18.97 ( 6)
7 (afc south) = 18.11 18.24 ( 7) 4 18.24 ( 7)
8 (NFC SOUTH) = 17.36 17.12 ( 8) 4 17.16 ( 8)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
6 (NFC EAST) = 18.94 18.99 ( 6) 4 18.97 ( 6)
4 (NFC NORTH) = 20.61 20.70 ( 4) 4 20.69 ( 4)
8 (NFC SOUTH) = 17.36 17.12 ( 8) 4 17.16 ( 8)
5 (NFC WEST) = 19.82 19.84 ( 5) 4 19.83 ( 5)
2 (afc east) = 21.05 21.06 ( 3) 4 21.06 ( 3)
1 (afc north) = 22.49 22.83 ( 1) 4 22.79 ( 1)
7 (afc south) = 18.11 18.24 ( 7) 4 18.24 ( 7)
3 (afc west) = 20.62 21.22 ( 2) 4 21.13 ( 2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
6 (NFC EAST) = 18.94 18.99 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 18.97 ( 6)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
5 Dallas Cowboys = 25.19 12 6 0 18.85( 29) 2 5 0 | 3 5 0 | 26.07 5 | 23.87 6 | 26.44 4 (NFC EAST)
9 Philadelphia Eagles = 21.69 11 7 0 20.25( 17) 4 2 0 | 6 3 0 | 21.17 11 | 22.82 8 | 21.23 9 (NFC EAST)
27 New York Giants = 15.98 6 11 0 20.48( 11) 2 6 0 | 2 8 0 | 14.95 29 | 15.96 28 | 16.71 26 (NFC EAST)
31 Washington Redskins = 13.08 4 13 0 20.37( 15) 0 7 0 | 0 8 0 | 12.89 32 | 12.89 31 | 13.19 30 (NFC EAST)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4 (NFC NORTH) = 20.61 20.70 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 20.69 ( 4)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
6 Detroit Lions = 23.67 14 6 0 20.44( 12) 2 4 0 | 6 4 0 | 23.36 7 | 24.20 5 | 23.62 7 (NFC NORTH)
10 Green Bay Packers = 21.24 10 9 0 20.57( 9) 3 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 21.39 9 | 21.17 11 | 21.22 10 (NFC NORTH)
17 Minnesota Vikings = 19.65 7 10 0 20.77( 7) 2 6 0 | 3 7 0 | 19.89 16 | 19.60 18 | 19.46 18 (NFC NORTH)
24 Chicago Bears = 18.22 7 10 0 19.61( 27) 1 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 18.19 23 | 17.87 24 | 18.54 23 (NFC NORTH)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
8 (NFC SOUTH) = 17.36 17.12 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 17.16 ( 8)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
13 New Orleans Saints = 20.71 9 8 0 18.04( 31) 0 2 0 | 1 5 0 | 21.28 10 | 20.02 15 | 20.88 11 (NFC SOUTH)
16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 19.70 10 9 0 19.75( 26) 2 5 0 | 4 6 0 | 20.00 15 | 19.76 17 | 19.33 19 (NFC SOUTH)
29 Atlanta Falcons = 15.94 7 10 0 18.01( 32) 1 1 0 | 3 4 0 | 16.02 27 | 16.14 27 | 15.48 29 (NFC SOUTH)
32 Carolina Panthers = 12.15 2 15 0 19.94( 24) 0 4 0 | 0 9 0 | 13.00 31 | 11.39 32 | 11.38 32 (NFC SOUTH)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5 (NFC WEST) = 19.82 19.84 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 19.83 ( 5)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
3 San Francisco 49ers = 26.55 14 6 0 20.18( 19) 4 3 0 | 8 5 0 | 27.06 2 | 26.75 3 | 26.19 5 (NFC WEST)
14 Los Angeles Rams = 20.26 10 8 0 20.73( 8) 1 7 0 | 3 8 0 | 20.37 14 | 20.22 14 | 20.19 14 (NFC WEST)
20 Seattle Seahawks = 19.27 9 8 0 20.16( 20) 2 5 0 | 3 8 0 | 18.81 21 | 19.90 16 | 19.05 21 (NFC WEST)
30 Arizona Cardinals = 13.30 4 13 0 20.92( 5) 2 4 0 | 3 7 0 | 13.53 30 | 13.26 30 | 12.84 31 (NFC WEST)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 (afc east) = 21.05 21.06 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 21.06 ( 3)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
4 Buffalo Bills = 26.16 12 7 0 20.06( 23) 4 3 0 | 6 4 0 | 26.44 4 | 25.63 4 | 26.73 3 (afc east)
7 Miami Dolphins = 23.65 11 7 0 20.09( 21) 1 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 24.03 6 | 23.33 7 | 23.75 6 (afc east)
23 New York Jets = 18.44 7 10 0 20.29( 16) 2 5 0 | 2 6 0 | 17.81 24 | 18.78 23 | 18.66 22 (afc east)
28 New England Patriots = 15.98 4 13 0 20.91( 6) 1 6 0 | 2 7 0 | 15.68 28 | 14.88 29 | 16.98 25 (afc east)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 (afc north) = 22.49 22.83 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 22.79 ( 1)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
1 Baltimore Ravens = 27.66 14 5 0 20.07( 22) 5 1 0 | 8 4 0 | 27.81 1 | 27.55 1 | 27.89 1 (afc north)
8 Cincinnati Bengals = 22.51 9 8 0 21.08( 3) 2 3 0 | 5 6 0 | 22.00 8 | 22.75 9 | 22.91 8 (afc north)
11 Cleveland Browns = 21.11 11 7 0 20.43( 13) 3 2 0 | 5 4 0 | 20.96 12 | 21.70 10 | 20.72 12 (afc north)
15 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.06 10 8 0 21.02( 4) 5 2 0 | 7 4 0 | 19.53 18 | 20.62 13 | 20.04 15 (afc north)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7 (afc south) = 18.11 18.24 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 18.24 ( 7)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
12 Jacksonville Jaguars = 20.78 9 8 0 20.18( 18) 1 4 0 | 3 6 0 | 20.81 13 | 20.93 12 | 20.62 13 (afc south)
22 Houston Texans = 18.81 11 8 0 19.07( 28) 1 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 19.10 20 | 19.42 20 | 17.77 24 (afc south)
25 Indianapolis Colts = 16.88 9 8 0 18.83( 30) 1 1 0 | 3 6 0 | 16.95 25 | 17.47 25 | 16.01 27 (afc south)
26 Tennessee Titans = 16.50 6 11 0 19.77( 25) 2 1 0 | 3 6 0 | 16.77 26 | 16.61 26 | 15.94 28 (afc south)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3 (afc west) = 20.62 21.22 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 21.13 ( 2)
Final NFL 2023 through games of 2024 February 11 Sunday - Super Bowl
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.46] [ 2.51] [ 2.48] [ 2.38]
2 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.90 15 6 0 21.60( 1) 6 4 0 | 7 4 0 | 26.44 3 | 27.07 2 | 27.52 2 (afc west)
18 Los Angeles Chargers = 19.56 5 12 0 21.43( 2) 0 8 0 | 0 8 0 | 19.83 17 | 18.89 22 | 19.95 16 (afc west)
19 Las Vegas Raiders = 19.32 8 9 0 20.42( 14) 2 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 19.50 19 | 18.97 21 | 19.48 17 (afc west)
21 Denver Broncos = 19.09 8 9 0 20.52( 10) 3 3 0 | 4 3 0 | 18.36 22 | 19.58 19 | 19.27 20 (afc west)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile
Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== n kansas city chiefs 0.34 -0.62 0.33 1.33 san francisco 49ers 105 51% 40.77 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 N Kansas City Chiefs 1.27 118 54% @ San Francisco 49ers endfileTop_of_Page