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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings


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Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2014 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.

"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the manpower for that war. The policies - determining who would be drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic disgrace. I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable (someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are too good to risk. I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


Final NFL 2013 Ratings through results of 2014 FEBRUARY 2 SUNDAY - SUPER BOWL


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In PURE_ELO, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very good at retro-fitting the W-L results.  However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR
of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more weight to the two SCORE-BASED methods
and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

PURE_ELO Retrodictive Summary: RIGHT-WRONG-TIES=196-70-1  .7368(ignore ties)   .7360(tie counts as half-right and half-wrong)
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
   1  Seattle Seahawks        =  34.83   16   3   0   22.37(   7)   7  3  0 |   9  3  0 |   34.15    1 |   35.71    1 |   35.01    1
   2  San Francisco 49ers     =  31.02   14   5   0   22.68(   4)   4  5  0 |   8  5  0 |   30.96    2 |   30.83    2 |   31.66    2
   3  Denver Broncos          =  28.76   15   4   0   20.14(  16)   5  4  0 |   7  4  0 |   29.68    3 |   27.71    4 |   29.55    3
   4  New Orleans Saints      =  27.74   12   6   0   22.35(   8)   3  4  0 |   6  5  0 |   27.69    4 |   28.00    3 |   27.54    4
   5  Carolina Panthers       =  26.86   12   5   0   21.61(   9)   3  4  0 |   5  4  0 |   26.89    5 |   27.39    5 |   26.19    7
   6  New England Patriots    =  25.88   13   5   0   19.42(  21)   3  2  0 |   4  4  0 |   26.05    6 |   25.50    8 |   26.43    5
   7  Arizona Cardinals       =  25.51   10   6   0   22.79(   3)   3  4  0 |   4  6  0 |   24.53    9 |   27.09    6 |   25.10    8
   8  Kansas City Chiefs      =  25.29   11   6   0   19.02(  24)   0  6  0 |   2  6  0 |   26.05    7 |   26.08    7 |   23.26   10
   9  San Diego Chargers      =  24.84   10   8   0   20.48(  14)   4  2  0 |   7  4  0 |   25.49    8 |   24.66    9 |   24.28    9
  10  Indianapolis Colts      =  24.07   12   6   0   21.26(  10)   5  3  0 |   5  6  0 |   23.48   10 |   23.64   10 |   26.26    6
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  11  Cincinnati Bengals      =  22.16   11   6   0   18.17(  27)   3  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   22.51   11 |   22.32   11 |   21.50   11
  12  Philadelphia Eagles     =  21.67   10   7   0   18.89(  25)   1  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   22.46   12 |   21.49   13 |   20.82   12
  13  St. Louis Rams          =  21.14    7   9   0   23.51(   1)   3  6  0 |   3  7  0 |   21.06   14 |   21.87   12 |   20.24   14
  14  Dallas Cowboys          =  20.00    8   8   0   19.14(  23)   0  4  0 |   2  6  0 |   20.16   15 |   20.54   14 |   19.01   17
  15  Green Bay Packers       =  19.19    8   8   1   18.09(  28)   0  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   21.33   13 |   17.84   19 |   17.97   21
  16  Miami Dolphins          =  19.12    8   8   0   19.88(  18)   3  3  0 |   4  3  0 |   19.03   16 |   18.42   17 |   20.58   13
  17  Tennessee Titans        =  19.11    7   9   0   20.49(  13)   1  7  0 |   2  7  0 |   17.88   18 |   19.97   15 |   19.86   15
  18  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  17.90    8   8   0   16.89(  32)   0  1  0 |   2  3  0 |   17.68   20 |   18.50   16 |   17.42   22
  19  Detroit Lions           =  17.56    7   9   0   17.28(  31)   0  1  0 |   2  4  0 |   17.74   19 |   18.22   18 |   16.21   24
  20  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.10    4  12   0   22.68(   5)   0  8  0 |   1 10  0 |   18.45   17 |   16.98   21 |   14.90   27
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  21  Baltimore Ravens        =  17.06    8   8   0   17.92(  30)   0  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   16.50   22 |   16.99   20 |   18.20   19
  22  Chicago Bears           =  16.68    8   8   0   18.02(  29)   0  1  0 |   3  4  0 |   16.14   24 |   16.27   24 |   18.29   18
  23  Buffalo Bills           =  16.49    6  10   0   19.44(  20)   1  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   16.34   23 |   16.73   22 |   16.48   23
  24  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  16.34    4  12   0   23.05(   2)   0  8  0 |   1 10  0 |   16.59   21 |   16.72   23 |   15.41   25
  25  New York Giants         =  15.84    7   9   0   20.69(  12)   0  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.01   26 |   15.27   25 |   18.05   20
  26  New York Jets           =  15.54    8   8   0   19.62(  19)   2  2  0 |   3  4  0 |   14.81   27 |   13.08   27 |   19.65   16
  27  Minnesota Vikings       =  14.96    5  10   1   19.17(  22)   0  2  0 |   1  5  1 |   15.76   25 |   13.88   26 |   15.37   26
  28  Oakland Raiders         =  13.46    4  12   0   20.47(  15)   1  6  0 |   1  8  0 |   14.18   28 |   13.01   28 |   13.07   28
  29  Washington Redskins     =  11.75    3  13   0   20.10(  17)   1  3  0 |   1  8  0 |   12.75   29 |   11.41   31 |   10.43   31
  30  Houston Texans          =  11.25    2  14   0   22.50(   6)   1  8  0 |   1  9  0 |   11.60   30 |   12.34   29 |    7.32   32
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  31  Cleveland Browns        =  10.68    4  12   0   18.31(  26)   0  2  0 |   1  5  0 |    8.44   32 |   11.83   30 |   11.43   30
  32  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  10.20    4  12   0   21.21(  11)   0  8  0 |   0  9  0 |    8.59   31 |    9.74   32 |   12.55   29
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  28.17      28.12  (  1)      4      28.15  (  1)
   2  (afc west)              =  23.75      23.09  (  2)      4      23.63  (  2)
   3  (NFC SOUTH)             =  22.00      22.01  (  3)      4      22.01  (  3)
   4  (afc east)              =  18.77      19.26  (  4)      4      19.05  (  4)
   5  (NFC EAST)              =  17.52      17.32  (  5)      4      17.39  (  5)
   6  (afc north)             =  17.13      16.95  (  7)      4      17.05  (  7)
   7  (NFC NORTH)             =  17.10      17.10  (  6)      4      17.10  (  6)
   8  (afc south)             =  15.83      16.16  (  8)      4      16.01  (  8)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   5  (NFC EAST)              =  17.52      17.32  (  5)      4      17.39  (  5)
   7  (NFC NORTH)             =  17.10      17.10  (  6)      4      17.10  (  6)
   3  (NFC SOUTH)             =  22.00      22.01  (  3)      4      22.01  (  3)
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  28.17      28.12  (  1)      4      28.15  (  1)
   4  (afc east)              =  18.77      19.26  (  4)      4      19.05  (  4)
   6  (afc north)             =  17.13      16.95  (  7)      4      17.05  (  7)
   8  (afc south)             =  15.83      16.16  (  8)      4      16.01  (  8)
   2  (afc west)              =  23.75      23.09  (  2)      4      23.63  (  2)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (NFC EAST)              =  17.52      17.32  (  5)   TEAMS=  4      17.39  (  5)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  12  Philadelphia Eagles     =  21.67   10   7   0   18.89(  25)   1  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   22.46   12 |   21.49   13 |   20.82   12
  14  Dallas Cowboys          =  20.00    8   8   0   19.14(  23)   0  4  0 |   2  6  0 |   20.16   15 |   20.54   14 |   19.01   17
  25  New York Giants         =  15.84    7   9   0   20.69(  12)   0  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.01   26 |   15.27   25 |   18.05   20
  29  Washington Redskins     =  11.75    3  13   0   20.10(  17)   1  3  0 |   1  8  0 |   12.75   29 |   11.41   31 |   10.43   31
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (NFC NORTH)             =  17.10      17.10  (  6)   TEAMS=  4      17.10  (  6)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  15  Green Bay Packers       =  19.19    8   8   1   18.09(  28)   0  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   21.33   13 |   17.84   19 |   17.97   21
  19  Detroit Lions           =  17.56    7   9   0   17.28(  31)   0  1  0 |   2  4  0 |   17.74   19 |   18.22   18 |   16.21   24
  22  Chicago Bears           =  16.68    8   8   0   18.02(  29)   0  1  0 |   3  4  0 |   16.14   24 |   16.27   24 |   18.29   18
  27  Minnesota Vikings       =  14.96    5  10   1   19.17(  22)   0  2  0 |   1  5  1 |   15.76   25 |   13.88   26 |   15.37   26
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (NFC SOUTH)             =  22.00      22.01  (  3)   TEAMS=  4      22.01  (  3)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
   4  New Orleans Saints      =  27.74   12   6   0   22.35(   8)   3  4  0 |   6  5  0 |   27.69    4 |   28.00    3 |   27.54    4
   5  Carolina Panthers       =  26.86   12   5   0   21.61(   9)   3  4  0 |   5  4  0 |   26.89    5 |   27.39    5 |   26.19    7
  20  Atlanta Falcons         =  17.10    4  12   0   22.68(   5)   0  8  0 |   1 10  0 |   18.45   17 |   16.98   21 |   14.90   27
  24  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  16.34    4  12   0   23.05(   2)   0  8  0 |   1 10  0 |   16.59   21 |   16.72   23 |   15.41   25
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  28.17      28.12  (  1)   TEAMS=  4      28.15  (  1)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
   1  Seattle Seahawks        =  34.83   16   3   0   22.37(   7)   7  3  0 |   9  3  0 |   34.15    1 |   35.71    1 |   35.01    1
   2  San Francisco 49ers     =  31.02   14   5   0   22.68(   4)   4  5  0 |   8  5  0 |   30.96    2 |   30.83    2 |   31.66    2
   7  Arizona Cardinals       =  25.51   10   6   0   22.79(   3)   3  4  0 |   4  6  0 |   24.53    9 |   27.09    6 |   25.10    8
  13  St. Louis Rams          =  21.14    7   9   0   23.51(   1)   3  6  0 |   3  7  0 |   21.06   14 |   21.87   12 |   20.24   14
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc east)              =  18.77      19.26  (  4)   TEAMS=  4      19.05  (  4)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
   6  New England Patriots    =  25.88   13   5   0   19.42(  21)   3  2  0 |   4  4  0 |   26.05    6 |   25.50    8 |   26.43    5
  16  Miami Dolphins          =  19.12    8   8   0   19.88(  18)   3  3  0 |   4  3  0 |   19.03   16 |   18.42   17 |   20.58   13
  23  Buffalo Bills           =  16.49    6  10   0   19.44(  20)   1  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   16.34   23 |   16.73   22 |   16.48   23
  26  New York Jets           =  15.54    8   8   0   19.62(  19)   2  2  0 |   3  4  0 |   14.81   27 |   13.08   27 |   19.65   16
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (afc north)             =  17.13      16.95  (  7)   TEAMS=  4      17.05  (  7)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  11  Cincinnati Bengals      =  22.16   11   6   0   18.17(  27)   3  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   22.51   11 |   22.32   11 |   21.50   11
  18  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  17.90    8   8   0   16.89(  32)   0  1  0 |   2  3  0 |   17.68   20 |   18.50   16 |   17.42   22
  21  Baltimore Ravens        =  17.06    8   8   0   17.92(  30)   0  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   16.50   22 |   16.99   20 |   18.20   19
  31  Cleveland Browns        =  10.68    4  12   0   18.31(  26)   0  2  0 |   1  5  0 |    8.44   32 |   11.83   30 |   11.43   30
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (afc south)             =  15.83      16.16  (  8)   TEAMS=  4      16.01  (  8)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
  10  Indianapolis Colts      =  24.07   12   6   0   21.26(  10)   5  3  0 |   5  6  0 |   23.48   10 |   23.64   10 |   26.26    6
  17  Tennessee Titans        =  19.11    7   9   0   20.49(  13)   1  7  0 |   2  7  0 |   17.88   18 |   19.97   15 |   19.86   15
  30  Houston Texans          =  11.25    2  14   0   22.50(   6)   1  8  0 |   1  9  0 |   11.60   30 |   12.34   29 |    7.32   32
  32  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  10.20    4  12   0   21.21(  11)   0  8  0 |   0  9  0 |    8.59   31 |    9.74   32 |   12.55   29
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (afc west)              =  23.75      23.09  (  2)   TEAMS=  4      23.63  (  2)
Final NFL 2013 through games of 2014 February 2 Sunday - Super Bowl                                                                 
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PURE POINTS  | PURE_ELO   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.65]                                                   [  3.30]       [  3.89]       [  3.86]
   3  Denver Broncos          =  28.76   15   4   0   20.14(  16)   5  4  0 |   7  4  0 |   29.68    3 |   27.71    4 |   29.55    3
   8  Kansas City Chiefs      =  25.29   11   6   0   19.02(  24)   0  6  0 |   2  6  0 |   26.05    7 |   26.08    7 |   23.26   10
   9  San Diego Chargers      =  24.84   10   8   0   20.48(  14)   4  2  0 |   7  4  0 |   25.49    8 |   24.66    9 |   24.28    9
  28  Oakland Raiders         =  13.46    4  12   0   20.47(  15)   1  6  0 |   1  8  0 |   14.18   28 |   13.01   28 |   13.07   28
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile