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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2025 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2025 Ratings through results of 2025 DECEMBER 15 MONDAY - WEEK 15


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file

   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   1  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.50   11   3   0   20.79(   9)   4  1  0 |   7  2  0 |   27.74    1 |   27.19    1 |   28.24    1 |   31.95    1  (NFC WEST)
   2  Seattle Seahawks        =  26.20   11   3   0   19.36(  22)   2  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   26.60    2 |   25.86    2 |   26.68    2 |   30.35    2  (NFC WEST)
   3  Detroit Lions           =  25.36    8   6   0   20.78(  10)   0  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   25.67    4 |   24.85    8 |   26.07    3 |   25.62    6  (NFC NORTH)
   4  Philadelphia Eagles     =  25.29    9   5   0   20.61(  11)   4  1  0 |   4  3  0 |   25.20    5 |   25.33    5 |   25.77    4 |   25.41    7  (NFC EAST)
   5  Buffalo Bills           =  25.28   10   4   0   18.92(  29)   1  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   25.19    6 |   25.34    4 |   25.74    5 |   26.00    5  (afc east)
   6  Houston Texans          =  25.18    9   5   0   21.67(   3)   3  4  0 |   6  4  0 |   25.78    3 |   25.28    6 |   24.96    7 |   27.07    3  (afc south)
   7  Green Bay Packers       =  24.62    9   4   1   19.62(  21)   2  2  0 |   3  2  0 |   24.19    8 |   25.07    7 |   25.02    6 |   25.28    8  (NFC NORTH)
   8  Kansas City Chiefs      =  24.33    6   8   0   21.17(   6)   1  5  0 |   3  7  0 |   25.06    7 |   23.79    9 |   24.58    8 |   23.23   15  (afc west)
   9  Denver Broncos          =  24.24   12   2   0   18.37(  31)   4  0  0 |   4  2  0 |   23.46   10 |   25.52    3 |   24.30    9 |   24.86   10  (afc west)
  10  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  23.44   10   4   0   19.90(  18)   2  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   23.72    9 |   23.19   10 |   23.69   11 |   26.66    4  (afc south)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  11  Baltimore Ravens        =  23.04    7   7   0   19.68(  20)   0  5  0 |   1  5  0 |   22.83   11 |   22.58   12 |   24.07   10 |   23.64   13  (afc north)
  12  San Francisco 49ers     =  22.49   10   4   0   19.12(  28)   2  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   22.42   13 |   22.98   11 |   22.25   14 |   23.43   14  (NFC WEST)
  13  New England Patriots    =  22.46   11   3   0   16.29(  32)   1  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   22.24   14 |   22.22   13 |   23.16   12 |   25.06    9  (afc east)
  14  Indianapolis Colts      =  22.04    8   6   0   20.14(  14)   1  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   22.74   12 |   21.61   16 |   21.93   16 |   23.19   16  (afc south)
  15  Chicago Bears           =  21.96   10   4   0   19.14(  27)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   21.32   16 |   21.95   14 |   22.87   13 |   24.09   11  (NFC NORTH)
  16  Los Angeles Chargers    =  21.76   10   4   0   19.19(  26)   4  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   21.33   15 |   21.90   15 |   22.23   15 |   23.67   12  (afc west)
  17  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.91    8   6   0   20.13(  15)   0  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   20.71   17 |   21.01   17 |   21.09   17 |   21.66   17  (afc north)
  18  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.90    6   8   0   20.99(   8)   1  3  0 |   2  6  0 |   20.24   18 |   19.73   19 |   19.71   18 |   18.80   18  (NFC NORTH)
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.12    7   7   0   20.55(  12)   2  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   19.11   19 |   20.20   18 |   17.83   21 |   15.77   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  20  Washington Redskins     =  17.96    4  10   0   20.34(  13)   0  5  0 |   1  6  0 |   17.21   21 |   18.34   20 |   18.13   20 |   15.41   24  (NFC EAST)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  21  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.93    6   7   1   20.03(  16)   2  3  1 |   2  4  1 |   18.04   20 |   17.39   21 |   18.21   19 |   18.67   19  (NFC EAST)
  22  Atlanta Falcons         =  16.65    5   9   0   19.32(  24)   1  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   16.09   25 |   16.64   24 |   16.94   22 |   16.55   20  (NFC SOUTH)
  23  Cincinnati Bengals      =  16.55    4  10   0   21.60(   4)   1  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   16.13   24 |   16.96   22 |   16.25   23 |   14.25   25  (afc north)
  24  Miami Dolphins          =  16.42    6   8   0   18.91(  30)   1  1  0 |   1  5  0 |   16.59   22 |   16.32   25 |   16.03   24 |   16.53   21  (afc east)
  25  Carolina Panthers       =  16.23    7   7   0   19.35(  23)   2  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   15.88   26 |   16.72   23 |   15.71   25 |   15.71   23  (NFC SOUTH)
  26  Arizona Cardinals       =  15.84    3  11   0   21.48(   5)   0  6  0 |   0  9  0 |   16.22   23 |   16.29   26 |   14.48   27 |   12.75   28  (NFC WEST)
  27  New York Giants         =  14.82    2  12   0   22.06(   1)   1  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.38   27 |   13.97   27 |   14.58   26 |   13.40   26  (NFC EAST)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  13.10    3  11   0   19.75(  19)   1  1  0 |   1  6  0 |   13.08   28 |   13.26   28 |   12.35   29 |   10.06   30  (afc north)
  29  New Orleans Saints      =  12.90    4  10   0   19.91(  17)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   12.93   29 |   12.64   30 |   12.55   28 |   12.96   27  (NFC SOUTH)
  30  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.41    2  12   0   21.09(   7)   0  5  0 |   1  9  0 |   12.40   30 |   12.68   29 |   11.47   31 |    8.16   32  (afc west)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  31  New York Jets           =  12.22    3  11   0   19.29(  25)   0  3  0 |   0  5  0 |   12.17   32 |   11.75   31 |   12.06   30 |   10.39   29  (afc east)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  11.86    2  12   0   21.77(   2)   0  6  0 |   0 11  0 |   12.33   31 |   11.46   32 |   11.03   32 |    9.54   31  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.45      23.01  (  1)      4      23.14  (  1)  23.0076( 5.2278)  23.2461( 5.2108)  23.0794( 4.8561)  22.9115( 6.1664)
   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  23.07      22.96  (  2)      4      22.97  (  2)  22.9595( 2.5090)  22.8545( 2.5118)  22.8967( 2.5480)  23.4186( 2.8105)
   3  (afc west)              =  21.46      20.69  (  3)      4      20.94  (  3)  20.6856( 5.6446)  20.5608( 5.6536)  20.9700( 5.7198)  20.6429( 6.2041)
   4  (afc south)             =  21.33      20.63  (  4)      4      20.92  (  4)  20.6299( 5.9860)  21.1415( 6.0099)  20.3861( 6.1373)  20.4044( 6.3689)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.21      19.09  (  5)      4      19.13  (  5)  19.0939( 5.8845)  19.0478( 5.8090)  18.9093( 6.0612)  19.2504( 6.3091)
   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.65      19.00  (  6)      4      18.90  (  6)  18.9993( 4.4415)  18.9588( 4.3082)  18.7578( 4.7658)  19.1704( 4.7111)
   7  (afc north)             =  18.51      18.40  (  7)      4      18.42  (  7)  18.3993( 4.4501)  18.1879( 4.4089)  18.4521( 4.1952)  18.4409( 5.1831)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.30      16.22  (  8)      4      16.23  (  8)  16.2250( 2.5557)  16.0028( 2.5249)  16.5486( 3.0912)  15.7608( 2.3089)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.7358)  20.0000( 4.7696)  20.0000( 4.7696)  20.0000( 5.1653)

      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.65      19.00  (  6)      4      18.90  (  6)  18.9993( 4.4415)  18.9588( 4.3082)  18.7578( 4.7658)  19.1704( 4.7111)
   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  23.07      22.96  (  2)      4      22.97  (  2)  22.9595( 2.5090)  22.8545( 2.5118)  22.8967( 2.5480)  23.4186( 2.8105)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.30      16.22  (  8)      4      16.23  (  8)  16.2250( 2.5557)  16.0028( 2.5249)  16.5486( 3.0912)  15.7608( 2.3089)
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.45      23.01  (  1)      4      23.14  (  1)  23.0076( 5.2278)  23.2461( 5.2108)  23.0794( 4.8561)  22.9115( 6.1664)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.21      19.09  (  5)      4      19.13  (  5)  19.0939( 5.8845)  19.0478( 5.8090)  18.9093( 6.0612)  19.2504( 6.3091)
   7  (afc north)             =  18.51      18.40  (  7)      4      18.42  (  7)  18.3993( 4.4501)  18.1879( 4.4089)  18.4521( 4.1952)  18.4409( 5.1831)
   4  (afc south)             =  21.33      20.63  (  4)      4      20.92  (  4)  20.6299( 5.9860)  21.1415( 6.0099)  20.3861( 6.1373)  20.4044( 6.3689)
   3  (afc west)              =  21.46      20.69  (  3)      4      20.94  (  3)  20.6856( 5.6446)  20.5608( 5.6536)  20.9700( 5.7198)  20.6429( 6.2041)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.7358)  20.0000( 4.7696)  20.0000( 4.7696)  20.0000( 5.1653)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (NFC EAST)              =  18.65
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   4  Philadelphia Eagles     =  25.29    9   5   0   20.61(  11)   4  1  0 |   4  3  0 |   25.20    5 |   25.33    5 |   25.77    4 |   25.41    7  (NFC EAST)
  20  Washington Redskins     =  17.96    4  10   0   20.34(  13)   0  5  0 |   1  6  0 |   17.21   21 |   18.34   20 |   18.13   20 |   15.41   24  (NFC EAST)
  21  Dallas Cowboys          =  17.93    6   7   1   20.03(  16)   2  3  1 |   2  4  1 |   18.04   20 |   17.39   21 |   18.21   19 |   18.67   19  (NFC EAST)
  27  New York Giants         =  14.82    2  12   0   22.06(   1)   1  5  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.38   27 |   13.97   27 |   14.58   26 |   13.40   26  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  23.07
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   3  Detroit Lions           =  25.36    8   6   0   20.78(  10)   0  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   25.67    4 |   24.85    8 |   26.07    3 |   25.62    6  (NFC NORTH)
   7  Green Bay Packers       =  24.62    9   4   1   19.62(  21)   2  2  0 |   3  2  0 |   24.19    8 |   25.07    7 |   25.02    6 |   25.28    8  (NFC NORTH)
  15  Chicago Bears           =  21.96   10   4   0   19.14(  27)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   21.32   16 |   21.95   14 |   22.87   13 |   24.09   11  (NFC NORTH)
  18  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.90    6   8   0   20.99(   8)   1  3  0 |   2  6  0 |   20.24   18 |   19.73   19 |   19.71   18 |   18.80   18  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.30
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.12    7   7   0   20.55(  12)   2  4  0 |   3  5  0 |   19.11   19 |   20.20   18 |   17.83   21 |   15.77   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  22  Atlanta Falcons         =  16.65    5   9   0   19.32(  24)   1  1  0 |   1  4  0 |   16.09   25 |   16.64   24 |   16.94   22 |   16.55   20  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  Carolina Panthers       =  16.23    7   7   0   19.35(  23)   2  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   15.88   26 |   16.72   23 |   15.71   25 |   15.71   23  (NFC SOUTH)
  29  New Orleans Saints      =  12.90    4  10   0   19.91(  17)   0  3  0 |   0  6  0 |   12.93   29 |   12.64   30 |   12.55   28 |   12.96   27  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.45
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   1  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.50   11   3   0   20.79(   9)   4  1  0 |   7  2  0 |   27.74    1 |   27.19    1 |   28.24    1 |   31.95    1  (NFC WEST)
   2  Seattle Seahawks        =  26.20   11   3   0   19.36(  22)   2  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   26.60    2 |   25.86    2 |   26.68    2 |   30.35    2  (NFC WEST)
  12  San Francisco 49ers     =  22.49   10   4   0   19.12(  28)   2  3  0 |   2  3  0 |   22.42   13 |   22.98   11 |   22.25   14 |   23.43   14  (NFC WEST)
  26  Arizona Cardinals       =  15.84    3  11   0   21.48(   5)   0  6  0 |   0  9  0 |   16.22   23 |   16.29   26 |   14.48   27 |   12.75   28  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (afc east)              =  19.21
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   5  Buffalo Bills           =  25.28   10   4   0   18.92(  29)   1  1  0 |   3  2  0 |   25.19    6 |   25.34    4 |   25.74    5 |   26.00    5  (afc east)
  13  New England Patriots    =  22.46   11   3   0   16.29(  32)   1  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   22.24   14 |   22.22   13 |   23.16   12 |   25.06    9  (afc east)
  24  Miami Dolphins          =  16.42    6   8   0   18.91(  30)   1  1  0 |   1  5  0 |   16.59   22 |   16.32   25 |   16.03   24 |   16.53   21  (afc east)
  31  New York Jets           =  12.22    3  11   0   19.29(  25)   0  3  0 |   0  5  0 |   12.17   32 |   11.75   31 |   12.06   30 |   10.39   29  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (afc north)             =  18.51
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  11  Baltimore Ravens        =  23.04    7   7   0   19.68(  20)   0  5  0 |   1  5  0 |   22.83   11 |   22.58   12 |   24.07   10 |   23.64   13  (afc north)
  17  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.91    8   6   0   20.13(  15)   0  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   20.71   17 |   21.01   17 |   21.09   17 |   21.66   17  (afc north)
  23  Cincinnati Bengals      =  16.55    4  10   0   21.60(   4)   1  4  0 |   2  7  0 |   16.13   24 |   16.96   22 |   16.25   23 |   14.25   25  (afc north)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  13.10    3  11   0   19.75(  19)   1  1  0 |   1  6  0 |   13.08   28 |   13.26   28 |   12.35   29 |   10.06   30  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc south)             =  21.33
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   6  Houston Texans          =  25.18    9   5   0   21.67(   3)   3  4  0 |   6  4  0 |   25.78    3 |   25.28    6 |   24.96    7 |   27.07    3  (afc south)
  10  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  23.44   10   4   0   19.90(  18)   2  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   23.72    9 |   23.19   10 |   23.69   11 |   26.66    4  (afc south)
  14  Indianapolis Colts      =  22.04    8   6   0   20.14(  14)   1  5  0 |   2  5  0 |   22.74   12 |   21.61   16 |   21.93   16 |   23.19   16  (afc south)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  11.86    2  12   0   21.77(   2)   0  6  0 |   0 11  0 |   12.33   31 |   11.46   32 |   11.03   32 |    9.54   31  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (afc west)              =  21.46
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.07]                                                   [  2.23]       [  2.21]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   8  Kansas City Chiefs      =  24.33    6   8   0   21.17(   6)   1  5  0 |   3  7  0 |   25.06    7 |   23.79    9 |   24.58    8 |   23.23   15  (afc west)
   9  Denver Broncos          =  24.24   12   2   0   18.37(  31)   4  0  0 |   4  2  0 |   23.46   10 |   25.52    3 |   24.30    9 |   24.86   10  (afc west)
  16  Los Angeles Chargers    =  21.76   10   4   0   19.19(  26)   4  1  0 |   4  2  0 |   21.33   15 |   21.90   15 |   22.23   15 |   23.67   12  (afc west)
  30  Las Vegas Raiders       =  12.41    2  12   0   21.09(   7)   0  5  0 |   1  9  0 |   12.40   30 |   12.68   29 |   11.47   31 |    8.16   32  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                      These are the "regular method".                                                           _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                                                  _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                                       _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite                         _
                                                            Strong                   MONEYLINE=odds to 100                      _
          FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG                ODDS   PCT%                 TOTAL   _
====================================================================================================================================


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.07   2.23   2.21   1.77   1.77
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Seattle Seahawks       0.76   1.09   0.88   0.20   0.17   Los Angeles Rams         111    53%   24.57  22.73  47.29
    2     Minnesota Vikings      3.01   2.62   3.55   3.36   3.63 @ New York Giants          151    60%   21.76  23.70  45.46
    3   @ Baltimore Ravens       2.66   2.83   2.57   2.68   0.35   New England Patriots     144    59%   22.76  24.07  46.83
    4   @ Miami Dolphins         1.94   2.69   1.57   1.55   4.05   Cincinnati Bengals       130    57%   26.96  21.75  48.71
    5     Tampa Bay Buccaneers   0.82   0.99   1.27   0.35  -1.71 @ Carolina Panthers        112    53%   21.69  23.04  44.73
    6     Buffalo Bills         10.11   9.88   9.87  11.62  14.17 @ Cleveland Browns         366    79%   17.14  29.55  46.69
    7   @ Detroit Lions          6.52   7.19   6.05   6.75   5.73   Pittsburgh Steelers      237    70%   28.78  21.81  50.59
    8     Kansas City Chiefs    10.40  10.50  10.12  11.77  11.93 @ Tennessee Titans         379    79%   15.93  27.31  43.25
    9   @ New Orleans Saints     2.75   2.98   3.09   2.26   4.34   New York Jets            145    59%   24.40  18.31  42.71
   10   @ Houston Texans        14.84  15.61  14.80  15.26  20.68   Las Vegas Raiders        629    86%   30.78   7.65  38.43

   11     Los Angeles Chargers   1.76   1.06   2.30   2.26   3.24 @ Dallas Cowboys           127    56%   25.99  26.61  52.59
   12   @ Denver Broncos         2.87   1.97   4.53   2.37  -0.03   Jacksonville Jaguars     148    60%   22.82  23.63  46.45
   13   @ Arizona Cardinals      1.26   2.36   1.86  -0.70  -2.03   Atlanta Falcons          119    54%   25.56  21.62  47.18
   14     Philadelphia Eagles    5.26   5.76   4.77   5.87   8.24 @ Washington Redskins      202    67%   20.20  22.76  42.95
   15     Green Bay Packers      0.59   0.63   0.92   0.38  -0.58 @ Chicago Bears            108    52%   22.18  24.50  46.67
   16   @ Indianapolis Colts     1.62   2.55   0.85   1.45   1.53   San Francisco 49ers      125    56%   26.40  21.94  48.33

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 15 Monday - Week 15
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.07   2.23   2.21   1.77   1.77
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Seattle Seahawks       0.57   0.90   0.68   0.01  -0.03   Los Angeles Rams         108    52%   24.57  22.73  47.29
    2     Minnesota Vikings      0.95   0.56   1.49   1.30   1.57 @ New York Giants          114    53%   21.76  23.70  45.46
    3     New England Patriots   7.63   7.46   7.72   7.61   9.94 @ Baltimore Ravens         272    73%   22.76  24.07  46.83
    4   @ Miami Dolphins         5.87   6.62   5.50   5.48   7.98   Cincinnati Bengals       218    69%   26.96  21.75  48.71
    5   @ Carolina Panthers      1.19   1.02   0.74   1.66   3.72   Tampa Bay Buccaneers     118    54%   21.69  23.04  44.73
    6     Buffalo Bills         12.92  12.69  12.68  14.42  16.98 @ Cleveland Browns         507    84%   17.14  29.55  46.69
    7   @ Detroit Lions          6.45   7.12   5.98   6.68   5.66   Pittsburgh Steelers      235    70%   28.78  21.81  50.59
    8     Kansas City Chiefs     9.53   9.63   9.25  10.90  11.06 @ Tennessee Titans         342    77%   15.93  27.31  43.25
    9   @ New Orleans Saints     4.16   4.40   4.50   3.67   5.75   New York Jets            175    64%   24.40  18.31  42.71
   10   @ Houston Texans        27.20  27.97  27.16  27.62  33.03   Las Vegas Raiders       2081    95%   30.78   7.65  38.43

   11   @ Dallas Cowboys         0.42   1.12  -0.12  -0.08  -1.06   Los Angeles Chargers     106    51%   25.99  26.61  52.59
   12   @ Denver Broncos         2.64   1.73   4.29   2.13  -0.27   Jacksonville Jaguars     143    59%   22.82  23.63  46.45
   13     Atlanta Falcons        5.07   3.97   4.47   7.03   8.36 @ Arizona Cardinals        197    66%   25.56  21.62  47.18
   14     Philadelphia Eagles    6.04   6.53   5.55   6.65   9.01 @ Washington Redskins      223    69%   20.20  22.76  42.95
   15   @ Chicago Bears          3.73   3.68   3.40   3.93   4.90   Green Bay Packers        166    62%   22.18  24.50  46.67
   16   @ Indianapolis Colts     2.39   3.32   1.61   2.22   2.29   San Francisco 49ers      139    58%   26.40  21.94  48.33

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1    Los Angeles Rams       0.12   102   50%  @ Seattle Seahawks
    2    Minnesota Vikings      1.89   129   56%  @ New York Giants
    3    New England Patriots   3.81   167   63%  @ Baltimore Ravens
    4  @ Miami Dolphins         5.50   208   68%    Cincinnati Bengals
    5  @ Carolina Panthers      0.89   113   53%    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    6    Buffalo Bills         11.98   455   82%  @ Cleveland Browns
    7  @ Detroit Lions          3.78   167   63%    Pittsburgh Steelers
    8    Kansas City Chiefs     9.77   352   78%  @ Tennessee Titans
    9  @ New Orleans Saints     4.05   173   63%    New York Jets
   10  @ Houston Texans        16.74   772   89%    Las Vegas Raiders

   11    Los Angeles Chargers   3.80   167   63%  @ Dallas Cowboys
   12  @ Denver Broncos         2.59   142   59%    Jacksonville Jaguars
   13    Atlanta Falcons        0.80   112   53%  @ Arizona Cardinals
   14    Philadelphia Eagles    8.63   307   75%  @ Washington Redskins
   15    Green Bay Packers      0.75   111   53%  @ Chicago Bears
   16    San Francisco 49ers    0.43   106   51%  @ Indianapolis Colts
endfile

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