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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2024 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2024 Ratings through results of 2024 OCTOBER 7 MONDAY - WEEK #5


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   1  Kansas City Chiefs      =  26.00    5   0   0   20.41(  15)   1  0  0 |   3  0  0 |   25.57    1 |   27.61    1 |   25.84    1 |   27.72    2  (afc west)
   2  Detroit Lions           =  24.70    3   1   0   18.64(  25)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   24.46    5 |   24.66    3 |   25.36    3 |   25.59    4  (NFC NORTH)
   3  Buffalo Bills           =  24.49    3   2   0   20.60(  13)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   25.13    2 |   23.42    6 |   25.70    2 |   26.20    3  (afc east)
   4  Baltimore Ravens        =  24.20    3   2   0   21.39(   4)   1  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   24.64    4 |   23.95    5 |   24.34    5 |   24.28    6  (afc north)
   5  Minnesota Vikings       =  24.10    5   0   0   21.74(   3)   4  0  0 |   4  0  0 |   24.08    6 |   25.75    2 |   23.28    8 |   30.45    1  (NFC NORTH)
   6  San Francisco 49ers     =  24.09    2   3   0   19.26(  22)   1  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   24.66    3 |   23.06    8 |   25.23    4 |   23.72    7  (NFC WEST)
   7  Green Bay Packers       =  23.47    3   2   0   20.40(  16)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   23.72    7 |   23.14    7 |   23.81    6 |   24.36    5  (NFC NORTH)
   8  Houston Texans          =  23.02    4   1   0   21.29(   5)   1  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   21.94    9 |   24.25    4 |   23.40    7 |   22.44   10  (afc south)
   9  Philadelphia Eagles     =  22.01    2   2   0   21.00(  10)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   21.56   11 |   22.32    9 |   22.31    9 |   20.40   20  (NFC EAST)
  10  New York Jets           =  21.80    2   3   0   19.56(  21)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   22.36    8 |   21.08   12 |   22.15   10 |   21.13   13  (afc east)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
  11  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  21.67    3   2   0   19.91(  18)   0  0  0 |   1  2  0 |   21.68   10 |   22.26   10 |   21.19   12 |   22.46    9  (afc north)
  12  Chicago Bears           =  21.14    3   2   0   17.82(  32)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   21.37   12 |   20.59   15 |   21.61   11 |   23.10    8  (NFC NORTH)
  13  Dallas Cowboys          =  20.69    3   2   0   19.78(  19)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   20.32   16 |   20.77   13 |   21.05   14 |   21.80   12  (NFC EAST)
  14  Atlanta Falcons         =  20.50    3   2   0   21.09(   8)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |   20.30   17 |   21.12   11 |   20.08   16 |   20.64   17  (NFC SOUTH)
  15  Cincinnati Bengals      =  20.07    1   4   0   18.70(  24)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   20.56   14 |   18.55   22 |   21.17   13 |   19.35   22  (afc north)
  16  Indianapolis Colts      =  19.94    2   3   0   21.19(   7)   0  2  0 |   2  2  0 |   19.95   18 |   19.62   18 |   20.27   15 |   20.59   18  (afc south)
  17  Washington Redskins     =  19.72    4   1   0   18.42(  26)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   20.60   13 |   20.35   16 |   17.98   25 |   22.24   11  (NFC EAST)
  18  Seattle Seahawks        =  19.69    3   2   0   18.00(  30)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   19.43   20 |   20.12   17 |   19.49   19 |   18.61   23  (NFC WEST)
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.61    3   2   0   20.83(  11)   2  0  0 |   2  1  0 |   19.71   19 |   20.59   14 |   18.40   23 |   20.95   15  (NFC SOUTH)
  20  New Orleans Saints      =  19.39    2   3   0   20.49(  14)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   20.48   15 |   19.37   19 |   18.13   24 |   20.71   16  (NFC SOUTH)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
  21  Los Angeles Chargers    =  18.97    2   2   0   18.12(  28)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   19.10   21 |   19.00   20 |   18.70   21 |   20.52   19  (afc west)
  22  Los Angeles Rams        =  18.77    1   4   0   22.61(   1)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   18.54   24 |   17.59   25 |   20.05   17 |   18.36   24  (NFC WEST)
  23  Arizona Cardinals       =  18.60    2   3   0   22.17(   2)   1  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   18.90   22 |   18.25   23 |   18.54   22 |   19.48   21  (NFC WEST)
  24  Miami Dolphins          =  18.51    2   3   0   18.37(  27)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   17.53   26 |   17.89   24 |   19.92   18 |   13.54   28  (afc east)
  25  Denver Broncos          =  18.41    3   2   0   19.66(  20)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   18.83   23 |   18.96   21 |   17.15   26 |   21.11   14  (afc west)
  26  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  17.74    1   4   0   20.70(  12)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   16.98   27 |   16.43   28 |   19.35   20 |   16.67   27  (afc south)
  27  Tennessee Titans        =  17.18    1   3   0   21.23(   6)   0  2  0 |   0  3  0 |   17.71   25 |   16.65   27 |   16.91   28 |   16.79   25  (afc south)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  16.48    1   4   0   17.88(  31)   0  0  0 |   0  1  0 |   16.12   28 |   15.93   29 |   17.06   27 |   11.46   31  (afc north)
  29  New York Giants         =  16.19    2   3   0   20.35(  17)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   16.11   29 |   16.97   26 |   14.93   29 |   16.75   26  (NFC EAST)
  30  New England Patriots    =  14.00    1   4   0   21.04(   9)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   13.88   30 |   13.70   31 |   13.95   30 |   12.56   29  (afc east)
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  13.97    2   3   0   18.06(  29)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   13.57   31 |   14.27   30 |   13.58   31 |   11.51   30  (afc west)
  32  Carolina Panthers       =  10.88    1   4   0   18.93(  23)   0  0  0 |   0  2  0 |   10.23   32 |   11.79   32 |    9.08   32 |    4.53   32  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  23.50      23.35  (  1)      4      23.35  (  1)
   2  (afc north)             =  20.69      20.61  (  2)      4      20.61  (  2)
   3  (NFC WEST)              =  19.94      20.29  (  3)      4      20.29  (  3)
   4  (afc east)              =  19.85      19.70  (  4)      4      19.70  (  4)
   5  (NFC EAST)              =  19.83      19.65  (  5)      4      19.65  (  5)
   6  (afc south)             =  19.26      19.47  (  6)      4      19.47  (  6)
   7  (afc west)              =  19.12      19.34  (  7)      4      19.34  (  7)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  18.23      17.60  (  8)      4      17.60  (  8)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   5  (NFC EAST)              =  19.83      19.65  (  5)      4      19.65  (  5)
   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  23.50      23.35  (  1)      4      23.35  (  1)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  18.23      17.60  (  8)      4      17.60  (  8)
   3  (NFC WEST)              =  19.94      20.29  (  3)      4      20.29  (  3)
   4  (afc east)              =  19.85      19.70  (  4)      4      19.70  (  4)
   2  (afc north)             =  20.69      20.61  (  2)      4      20.61  (  2)
   6  (afc south)             =  19.26      19.47  (  6)      4      19.47  (  6)
   7  (afc west)              =  19.12      19.34  (  7)      4      19.34  (  7)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (NFC EAST)              =  19.83
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   9  Philadelphia Eagles     =  22.01    2   2   0   21.00(  10)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   21.56   11 |   22.32    9 |   22.31    9 |   20.40   20  (NFC EAST)
  13  Dallas Cowboys          =  20.69    3   2   0   19.78(  19)   0  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   20.32   16 |   20.77   13 |   21.05   14 |   21.80   12  (NFC EAST)
  17  Washington Redskins     =  19.72    4   1   0   18.42(  26)   0  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   20.60   13 |   20.35   16 |   17.98   25 |   22.24   11  (NFC EAST)
  29  New York Giants         =  16.19    2   3   0   20.35(  17)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   16.11   29 |   16.97   26 |   14.93   29 |   16.75   26  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC NORTH)             =  23.50
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   2  Detroit Lions           =  24.70    3   1   0   18.64(  25)   0  0  0 |   0  0  0 |   24.46    5 |   24.66    3 |   25.36    3 |   25.59    4  (NFC NORTH)
   5  Minnesota Vikings       =  24.10    5   0   0   21.74(   3)   4  0  0 |   4  0  0 |   24.08    6 |   25.75    2 |   23.28    8 |   30.45    1  (NFC NORTH)
   7  Green Bay Packers       =  23.47    3   2   0   20.40(  16)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   23.72    7 |   23.14    7 |   23.81    6 |   24.36    5  (NFC NORTH)
  12  Chicago Bears           =  21.14    3   2   0   17.82(  32)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   21.37   12 |   20.59   15 |   21.61   11 |   23.10    8  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  18.23
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
  14  Atlanta Falcons         =  20.50    3   2   0   21.09(   8)   1  1  0 |   1  2  0 |   20.30   17 |   21.12   11 |   20.08   16 |   20.64   17  (NFC SOUTH)
  19  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.61    3   2   0   20.83(  11)   2  0  0 |   2  1  0 |   19.71   19 |   20.59   14 |   18.40   23 |   20.95   15  (NFC SOUTH)
  20  New Orleans Saints      =  19.39    2   3   0   20.49(  14)   0  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   20.48   15 |   19.37   19 |   18.13   24 |   20.71   16  (NFC SOUTH)
  32  Carolina Panthers       =  10.88    1   4   0   18.93(  23)   0  0  0 |   0  2  0 |   10.23   32 |   11.79   32 |    9.08   32 |    4.53   32  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (NFC WEST)              =  19.94
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   6  San Francisco 49ers     =  24.09    2   3   0   19.26(  22)   1  1  0 |   1  1  0 |   24.66    3 |   23.06    8 |   25.23    4 |   23.72    7  (NFC WEST)
  18  Seattle Seahawks        =  19.69    3   2   0   18.00(  30)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   19.43   20 |   20.12   17 |   19.49   19 |   18.61   23  (NFC WEST)
  22  Los Angeles Rams        =  18.77    1   4   0   22.61(   1)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   18.54   24 |   17.59   25 |   20.05   17 |   18.36   24  (NFC WEST)
  23  Arizona Cardinals       =  18.60    2   3   0   22.17(   2)   1  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   18.90   22 |   18.25   23 |   18.54   22 |   19.48   21  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc east)              =  19.85
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   3  Buffalo Bills           =  24.49    3   2   0   20.60(  13)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   25.13    2 |   23.42    6 |   25.70    2 |   26.20    3  (afc east)
  10  New York Jets           =  21.80    2   3   0   19.56(  21)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   22.36    8 |   21.08   12 |   22.15   10 |   21.13   13  (afc east)
  24  Miami Dolphins          =  18.51    2   3   0   18.37(  27)   0  1  0 |   0  1  0 |   17.53   26 |   17.89   24 |   19.92   18 |   13.54   28  (afc east)
  30  New England Patriots    =  14.00    1   4   0   21.04(   9)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   13.88   30 |   13.70   31 |   13.95   30 |   12.56   29  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (afc north)             =  20.69
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   4  Baltimore Ravens        =  24.20    3   2   0   21.39(   4)   1  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   24.64    4 |   23.95    5 |   24.34    5 |   24.28    6  (afc north)
  11  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  21.67    3   2   0   19.91(  18)   0  0  0 |   1  2  0 |   21.68   10 |   22.26   10 |   21.19   12 |   22.46    9  (afc north)
  15  Cincinnati Bengals      =  20.07    1   4   0   18.70(  24)   0  2  0 |   0  2  0 |   20.56   14 |   18.55   22 |   21.17   13 |   19.35   22  (afc north)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  16.48    1   4   0   17.88(  31)   0  0  0 |   0  1  0 |   16.12   28 |   15.93   29 |   17.06   27 |   11.46   31  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (afc south)             =  19.26
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   8  Houston Texans          =  23.02    4   1   0   21.29(   5)   1  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   21.94    9 |   24.25    4 |   23.40    7 |   22.44   10  (afc south)
  16  Indianapolis Colts      =  19.94    2   3   0   21.19(   7)   0  2  0 |   2  2  0 |   19.95   18 |   19.62   18 |   20.27   15 |   20.59   18  (afc south)
  26  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  17.74    1   4   0   20.70(  12)   0  2  0 |   1  2  0 |   16.98   27 |   16.43   28 |   19.35   20 |   16.67   27  (afc south)
  27  Tennessee Titans        =  17.18    1   3   0   21.23(   6)   0  2  0 |   0  3  0 |   17.71   25 |   16.65   27 |   16.91   28 |   16.79   25  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (afc west)              =  19.12
NFL 2024 through games of 2024 October 7 Sunday - Week #5
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  1.05]                                                   [  1.21]       [  1.04]       [  0.91]       [  0.91]
   1  Kansas City Chiefs      =  26.00    5   0   0   20.41(  15)   1  0  0 |   3  0  0 |   25.57    1 |   27.61    1 |   25.84    1 |   27.72    2  (afc west)
  21  Los Angeles Chargers    =  18.97    2   2   0   18.12(  28)   0  1  0 |   0  2  0 |   19.10   21 |   19.00   20 |   18.70   21 |   20.52   19  (afc west)
  25  Denver Broncos          =  18.41    3   2   0   19.66(  20)   1  0  0 |   1  1  0 |   18.83   23 |   18.96   21 |   17.15   26 |   21.11   14  (afc west)
  31  Las Vegas Raiders       =  13.97    2   3   0   18.06(  29)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   13.57   31 |   14.27   30 |   13.58   31 |   11.51   30  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile 


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

                                      These are the "regular method".                                        _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                               _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                    _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                              Rating Favorite       _
                                                       Strong                         MONEYLINE=odds to 100  _
     FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG             ODDS   PCT%   TOTAL      _
================================================================================================================
     San_Francisco_49ers    3.35   4.02   1.90   4.83   4.20 @ Seattle_Seahawks      153    61%   59.11    50.65 average= 54.88
 N @ Chicago_Bears          3.40   4.39   4.15   2.25   6.43   Jacksonville_Jaguars  154    61%   40.67    39.67 average= 40.17
     Houston_Texans         7.96   6.84   9.51   8.55   8.97 @ New_England_Patriots  267    73%   31.14    34.75 average= 32.945
     Cincinnati_Bengals     2.83   3.24   0.54   5.33   1.69 @ New_York_Giants       144    59%   45.31    52.70 average= 49.005
   @ Philadelphia_Eagles    6.58   6.66   7.43   6.16   9.85   Cleveland_Browns      227    69%   37.94    40.06 average= 39
   @ Baltimore_Ravens       5.53   5.25   4.63   7.27   2.95   Washington_Redskins   200    67%   56.08    64.12 average= 60.1
     Atlanta_Falcons        8.56   8.85   8.30  10.09  15.20 @ Carolina_Panthers     285    74%   50.08    46.33 average= 48.205
     Indianapolis_Colts     1.71   1.02   1.92   2.46   2.89 @ Tennessee_Titans      125    55%   54.28    46.92 average= 50.6
   @ Green_Bay_Packers      5.92   6.03   5.93   6.18   5.78   Arizona_Cardinals     210    68%   45.17    53.38 average= 49.275
   @ New_Orleans_Saints     0.83   1.98  -0.17   0.63   0.67   Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers  111    53%   48.41    50.41 average= 49.41
     Detroit_Lions          2.96   2.93   2.85   3.40   2.88 @ Dallas_Cowboys        146    59%   48.02    42.05 average= 45.035
   @ Denver_Broncos         0.50   0.94   1.00  -0.65   1.50   Los_Angeles_Chargers  107    52%   28.50    28.50 average= 28.5
     Pittsburgh_Steelers    6.65   6.90   6.95   6.70  10.05 @ Las_Vegas_Raiders     229    70%   41.00    32.90 average= 36.95
     Buffalo_Bills          1.64   1.55   1.30   2.65   4.17 @ New_York_Jets         124    55%   44.72    41.42 average= 43.07

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS based on HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS for EACH TEAM
   @ Seattle_Seahawks       4.76   4.08   6.20   3.27   3.90   San_Francisco_49ers   182    65%   59.11    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    50.65 average= 54.88
 N @ Chicago_Bears          7.58   8.56   8.33   6.43  10.61   Jacksonville_Jaguars  255    72%   40.67    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    39.67 average= 40.17
     Houston_Texans         2.69   1.56   4.23   3.27   3.70 @ New_England_Patriots  141    59%   31.14    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    34.75 average= 32.945
     Cincinnati_Bengals     7.23   7.63   4.94   9.73   6.09 @ New_York_Giants       245    71%   45.31    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    52.70 average= 49.005
   @ Philadelphia_Eagles   11.13  11.21  11.98  10.71  14.40   Cleveland_Browns      380    79%   37.94    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    40.06 average= 39
     Washington_Redskins    0.24   0.52   1.14  -1.49   2.83 @ Baltimore_Ravens      103    51%   56.08    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    64.12 average= 60.1
     Atlanta_Falcons       21.71  22.00  21.44  23.23  28.35 @ Carolina_Panthers    1128    92%   50.08    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    46.33 average= 48.205
     Indianapolis_Colts     4.96   4.28   5.18   5.71   6.14 @ Tennessee_Titans      187    65%   54.28    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    46.92 average= 50.6
   @ Green_Bay_Packers      1.11   1.22   1.12   1.38   0.98   Arizona_Cardinals     115    54%   45.17    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    53.38 average= 49.275
   @ New_Orleans_Saints     4.07   5.22   3.06   3.87   3.91   Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers  168    63%   48.41    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    50.41 average= 49.41
     Detroit_Lions         10.49  10.46  10.38  10.94  10.41 @ Dallas_Cowboys        355    78%   48.02    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    42.05 average= 45.035
   @ Denver_Broncos         2.49   2.93   2.99   1.35   3.50   Los_Angeles_Chargers  138    58%   28.50    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    28.50 average= 28.5
     Pittsburgh_Steelers   15.10  15.35  15.40  15.15  18.50 @ Las_Vegas_Raiders     583    85%   41.00    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    32.90 average= 36.95
   @ New_York_Jets          1.44   1.54   1.79   0.44  -1.08   Buffalo_Bills         120    55%   44.72    HOME-AWAY_ADJUSTMENT_..._EXPERIMENTAL_NUMBERS    41.42 average= 43.07

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
   1    @ Seattle Seahawks       1.97   129   56%    San Francisco 49ers
   2   N@ Chicago Bears          9.51   318   76%    Jacksonville Jaguars
   3      Houston Texans         8.52   284   74%  @ New England Patriots
   4    @ New York Giants        2.45   137   58%    Cincinnati Bengals
   5    @ Philadelphia Eagles    7.51   253   72%    Cleveland Browns
   6      Washington Redskins    2.39   136   58%  @ Baltimore Ravens
   7      Atlanta Falcons        8.52   284   74%  @ Carolina Panthers
   8      Indianapolis Colts     1.47   121   55%  @ Tennessee Titans
   9    @ Green Bay Packers      6.71   230   70%    Arizona Cardinals
  10      Tampa Bay Buccaneers   0.52   107   52%  @ New Orleans Saints

  11      Detroit Lions          1.95   128   56%  @ Dallas Cowboys
  12    @ Denver Broncos         3.02   147   60%    Los Angeles Chargers
  13      Pittsburgh Steelers    7.55   254   72%  @ Las Vegas Raiders
  14      Buffalo Bills          2.95   146   59%  @ New York Jets
endfile

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