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Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2025 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.




"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

page 148 "MY AMERICAN JOURNEY" by Colin Powell
Copyright 1995 by Colin L. Powell
published by Random House
ISBN 0-679-43296-5


NFL 2025 Ratings through results of 2025 DECEMBER 8 MONDAY - WEEK 14


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  2  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by  4  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by  8  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file

   where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
   account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   1  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.07   10   3   0   20.39(  14)   2  1  0 |   6  2  0 |   27.40    1 |   26.57    1 |   27.89    1 |   31.79    2  (NFC WEST)
   2  Seattle Seahawks        =  26.20   10   3   0   19.11(  26)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   26.55    2 |   25.41    3 |   27.34    2 |   31.99    1  (NFC WEST)
   3  Detroit Lions           =  25.59    8   5   0   20.17(  17)   0  4  0 |   2  4  0 |   25.85    3 |   24.98    4 |   26.49    3 |   26.38    4  (NFC NORTH)
   4  Green Bay Packers       =  25.17    9   3   1   19.19(  25)   2  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   24.65    7 |   25.50    2 |   25.84    4 |   26.56    3  (NFC NORTH)
   5  Buffalo Bills           =  25.02    9   4   0   18.67(  28)   1  2  0 |   2  2  0 |   25.17    5 |   24.98    5 |   25.31    6 |   25.34    7  (afc east)
   6  Kansas City Chiefs      =  24.77    6   7   0   20.97(   8)   1  4  0 |   3  6  0 |   25.39    4 |   24.02    9 |   25.41    5 |   24.50    9  (afc west)
   7  Houston Texans          =  24.51    8   5   0   22.00(   2)   2  3  0 |   6  4  0 |   25.15    6 |   24.67    8 |   24.12    8 |   25.79    6  (afc south)
   8  Philadelphia Eagles     =  24.35    8   5   0   21.33(   5)   4  1  0 |   4  3  0 |   24.14    8 |   24.81    7 |   24.47    7 |   23.24   12  (NFC EAST)
   9  Denver Broncos          =  23.69   11   2   0   18.20(  31)   3  0  0 |   3  2  0 |   23.09    9 |   24.95    6 |   23.48   10 |   23.65   10  (afc west)
  10  New England Patriots    =  22.92   11   2   0   16.11(  32)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   22.65   11 |   22.76   11 |   23.62    9 |   26.22    5  (afc east)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  11  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  22.62    9   4   0   20.66(  10)   2  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   22.89   10 |   22.69   12 |   22.47   12 |   24.95    8  (afc south)
  12  San Francisco 49ers     =  22.47    9   4   0   19.93(  18)   2  2  0 |   2  3  0 |   22.47   12 |   22.83   10 |   22.27   13 |   23.50   11  (NFC WEST)
  13  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.04    6   7   0   19.86(  19)   0  5  0 |   1  5  0 |   21.76   14 |   21.91   13 |   22.67   11 |   21.27   16  (afc north)
  14  Indianapolis Colts      =  21.73    8   5   0   19.35(  23)   1  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   22.43   13 |   21.51   14 |   21.36   16 |   22.40   13  (afc south)
  15  Los Angeles Chargers    =  21.09    9   4   0   18.55(  30)   3  0  0 |   3  2  0 |   20.71   15 |   21.27   16 |   21.39   15 |   22.37   14  (afc west)
  16  Chicago Bears           =  20.94    9   4   0   19.70(  21)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   20.07   17 |   21.28   15 |   21.58   14 |   22.33   15  (NFC NORTH)
  17  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.39    7   6   0   20.62(  12)   1  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   20.25   16 |   20.60   18 |   20.33   17 |   20.32   17  (afc north)
  18  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.51    7   6   0   20.98(   7)   2  5  0 |   3  5  0 |   19.47   19 |   20.61   17 |   18.29   20 |   16.48   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  19  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.17    5   8   0   20.77(   9)   1  3  0 |   2  6  0 |   19.60   18 |   19.04   19 |   18.77   19 |   16.91   20  (NFC NORTH)
  20  Dallas Cowboys          =  18.61    6   6   1   20.26(  16)   2  3  1 |   2  4  1 |   18.55   20 |   18.02   20 |   19.15   18 |   20.32   18  (NFC EAST)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  21  Cincinnati Bengals      =  17.57    4   9   0   21.41(   3)   0  5  0 |   2  6  0 |   17.17   22 |   17.73   22 |   17.59   21 |   16.28   23  (afc north)
  22  Washington Redskins     =  17.45    3  10   0   20.64(  11)   0  5  0 |   1  6  0 |   16.83   23 |   17.96   21 |   17.30   22 |   13.40   27  (NFC EAST)
  23  Miami Dolphins          =  17.01    6   7   0   18.60(  29)   1  2  0 |   1  5  0 |   17.18   21 |   16.79   24 |   16.81   23 |   17.93   19  (afc east)
  24  Carolina Panthers       =  16.74    7   6   0   19.86(  20)   2  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   16.32   25 |   17.29   23 |   16.29   25 |   16.68   21  (NFC SOUTH)
  25  Arizona Cardinals       =  16.45    3  10   0   21.05(   6)   0  4  0 |   0  8  0 |   16.80   24 |   16.78   25 |   15.33   26 |   13.99   26  (NFC WEST)
  26  Atlanta Falcons         =  16.36    4   9   0   19.27(  24)   1  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   15.90   26 |   16.45   26 |   16.43   24 |   15.46   24  (NFC SOUTH)
  27  New York Giants         =  15.35    2  11   0   22.33(   1)   1  6  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.74   27 |   14.52   27 |   15.33   27 |   14.60   25  (NFC EAST)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  14.13    3  10   0   19.48(  22)   1  2  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.25   28 |   14.02   28 |   13.64   28 |   11.90   30  (afc north)
  29  Las Vegas Raiders       =  13.27    2  11   0   20.35(  15)   1  3  0 |   1  8  0 |   13.23   29 |   13.32   29 |   12.69   30 |    9.81   31  (afc west)
  30  New York Jets           =  13.20    3  10   0   19.02(  27)   0  3  0 |   0  4  0 |   13.14   30 |   12.50   30 |   13.30   29 |   12.26   28  (afc east)
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  31  New Orleans Saints      =  12.60    3  10   0   20.51(  13)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   12.75   31 |   12.46   31 |   11.99   31 |   12.06   29  (NFC SOUTH)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  12.01    2  11   0   21.41(   4)   0  6  0 |   0 10  0 |   12.45   32 |   11.81   32 |   11.02   32 |    9.39   32  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.




      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.48      23.05  (  1)      4      23.15  (  1)  23.0463( 4.8312)  23.3039( 4.8429)  22.8994( 4.3683)  23.2084( 5.8266)
   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.83      22.72  (  2)      4      22.72  (  2)  22.7175( 3.1621)  22.5440( 3.1675)  22.6996( 3.0788)  23.1721( 3.6557)
   3  (afc west)              =  21.27      20.70  (  3)      4      20.88  (  3)  20.7038( 5.1942)  20.6057( 5.2744)  20.8882( 5.2852)  20.7429( 5.6113)
   4  (afc south)             =  20.87      20.22  (  4)      4      20.46  (  4)  20.2178( 5.5930)  20.7306( 5.6457)  20.1686( 5.7211)  19.7437( 5.9222)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.68      19.54  (  5)      4      19.57  (  5)  19.5360( 5.4187)  19.5337( 5.4108)  19.2544( 5.6796)  19.7590( 5.6609)
   6  (afc north)             =  18.68      18.53  (  7)      4      18.55  (  7)  18.5321( 3.4691)  18.3562( 3.3403)  18.5621( 3.4973)  18.5587( 3.8799)
   7  (NFC EAST)              =  18.64      18.94  (  6)      4      18.88  (  6)  18.9412( 3.8519)  18.8150( 3.7321)  18.8274( 4.3101)  19.0642( 3.9263)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.39      16.31  (  8)      4      16.32  (  8)  16.3052( 2.8386)  16.1108( 2.7454)  16.7002( 3.3528)  15.7510( 2.6679)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.4180)  20.0000( 4.4584)  20.0000( 4.4584)  20.0000( 4.8149)

      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT

   7  (NFC EAST)              =  18.64      18.94  (  6)      4      18.88  (  6)  18.9412( 3.8519)  18.8150( 3.7321)  18.8274( 4.3101)  19.0642( 3.9263)
   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.83      22.72  (  2)      4      22.72  (  2)  22.7175( 3.1621)  22.5440( 3.1675)  22.6996( 3.0788)  23.1721( 3.6557)
   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.39      16.31  (  8)      4      16.32  (  8)  16.3052( 2.8386)  16.1108( 2.7454)  16.7002( 3.3528)  15.7510( 2.6679)
   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.48      23.05  (  1)      4      23.15  (  1)  23.0463( 4.8312)  23.3039( 4.8429)  22.8994( 4.3683)  23.2084( 5.8266)
   5  (afc east)              =  19.68      19.54  (  5)      4      19.57  (  5)  19.5360( 5.4187)  19.5337( 5.4108)  19.2544( 5.6796)  19.7590( 5.6609)
   6  (afc north)             =  18.68      18.53  (  7)      4      18.55  (  7)  18.5321( 3.4691)  18.3562( 3.3403)  18.5621( 3.4973)  18.5587( 3.8799)
   4  (afc south)             =  20.87      20.22  (  4)      4      20.46  (  4)  20.2178( 5.5930)  20.7306( 5.6457)  20.1686( 5.7211)  19.7437( 5.9222)
   3  (afc west)              =  21.27      20.70  (  3)      4      20.88  (  3)  20.7038( 5.1942)  20.6057( 5.2744)  20.8882( 5.2852)  20.7429( 5.6113)

       OVERALL                                                                     20.0000( 4.4180)  20.0000( 4.4584)  20.0000( 4.4584)  20.0000( 4.8149)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________



By Division

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   7  (NFC EAST)              =  18.64
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   8  Philadelphia Eagles     =  24.35    8   5   0   21.33(   5)   4  1  0 |   4  3  0 |   24.14    8 |   24.81    7 |   24.47    7 |   23.24   12  (NFC EAST)
  20  Dallas Cowboys          =  18.61    6   6   1   20.26(  16)   2  3  1 |   2  4  1 |   18.55   20 |   18.02   20 |   19.15   18 |   20.32   18  (NFC EAST)
  22  Washington Redskins     =  17.45    3  10   0   20.64(  11)   0  5  0 |   1  6  0 |   16.83   23 |   17.96   21 |   17.30   22 |   13.40   27  (NFC EAST)
  27  New York Giants         =  15.35    2  11   0   22.33(   1)   1  6  0 |   2  8  0 |   15.74   27 |   14.52   27 |   15.33   27 |   14.60   25  (NFC EAST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  (NFC NORTH)             =  22.83
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   3  Detroit Lions           =  25.59    8   5   0   20.17(  17)   0  4  0 |   2  4  0 |   25.85    3 |   24.98    4 |   26.49    3 |   26.38    4  (NFC NORTH)
   4  Green Bay Packers       =  25.17    9   3   1   19.19(  25)   2  1  0 |   3  1  0 |   24.65    7 |   25.50    2 |   25.84    4 |   26.56    3  (NFC NORTH)
  16  Chicago Bears           =  20.94    9   4   0   19.70(  21)   1  2  0 |   1  3  0 |   20.07   17 |   21.28   15 |   21.58   14 |   22.33   15  (NFC NORTH)
  19  Minnesota Vikings       =  19.17    5   8   0   20.77(   9)   1  3  0 |   2  6  0 |   19.60   18 |   19.04   19 |   18.77   19 |   16.91   20  (NFC NORTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   8  (NFC SOUTH)             =  16.39
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  18  Tampa Bay Buccaneers    =  19.51    7   6   0   20.98(   7)   2  5  0 |   3  5  0 |   19.47   19 |   20.61   17 |   18.29   20 |   16.48   22  (NFC SOUTH)
  24  Carolina Panthers       =  16.74    7   6   0   19.86(  20)   2  2  0 |   2  4  0 |   16.32   25 |   17.29   23 |   16.29   25 |   16.68   21  (NFC SOUTH)
  26  Atlanta Falcons         =  16.36    4   9   0   19.27(  24)   1  2  0 |   1  4  0 |   15.90   26 |   16.45   26 |   16.43   24 |   15.46   24  (NFC SOUTH)
  31  New Orleans Saints      =  12.60    3  10   0   20.51(  13)   0  4  0 |   0  6  0 |   12.75   31 |   12.46   31 |   11.99   31 |   12.06   29  (NFC SOUTH)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  (NFC WEST)              =  23.48
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   1  Los Angeles Rams        =  27.07   10   3   0   20.39(  14)   2  1  0 |   6  2  0 |   27.40    1 |   26.57    1 |   27.89    1 |   31.79    2  (NFC WEST)
   2  Seattle Seahawks        =  26.20   10   3   0   19.11(  26)   1  1  0 |   2  2  0 |   26.55    2 |   25.41    3 |   27.34    2 |   31.99    1  (NFC WEST)
  12  San Francisco 49ers     =  22.47    9   4   0   19.93(  18)   2  2  0 |   2  3  0 |   22.47   12 |   22.83   10 |   22.27   13 |   23.50   11  (NFC WEST)
  25  Arizona Cardinals       =  16.45    3  10   0   21.05(   6)   0  4  0 |   0  8  0 |   16.80   24 |   16.78   25 |   15.33   26 |   13.99   26  (NFC WEST)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  (afc east)              =  19.68
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   5  Buffalo Bills           =  25.02    9   4   0   18.67(  28)   1  2  0 |   2  2  0 |   25.17    5 |   24.98    5 |   25.31    6 |   25.34    7  (afc east)
  10  New England Patriots    =  22.92   11   2   0   16.11(  32)   1  0  0 |   1  0  0 |   22.65   11 |   22.76   11 |   23.62    9 |   26.22    5  (afc east)
  23  Miami Dolphins          =  17.01    6   7   0   18.60(  29)   1  2  0 |   1  5  0 |   17.18   21 |   16.79   24 |   16.81   23 |   17.93   19  (afc east)
  30  New York Jets           =  13.20    3  10   0   19.02(  27)   0  3  0 |   0  4  0 |   13.14   30 |   12.50   30 |   13.30   29 |   12.26   28  (afc east)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  (afc north)             =  18.68
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
  13  Baltimore Ravens        =  22.04    6   7   0   19.86(  19)   0  5  0 |   1  5  0 |   21.76   14 |   21.91   13 |   22.67   11 |   21.27   16  (afc north)
  17  Pittsburgh Steelers     =  20.39    7   6   0   20.62(  12)   1  3  0 |   3  5  0 |   20.25   16 |   20.60   18 |   20.33   17 |   20.32   17  (afc north)
  21  Cincinnati Bengals      =  17.57    4   9   0   21.41(   3)   0  5  0 |   2  6  0 |   17.17   22 |   17.73   22 |   17.59   21 |   16.28   23  (afc north)
  28  Cleveland Browns        =  14.13    3  10   0   19.48(  22)   1  2  0 |   1  5  0 |   14.25   28 |   14.02   28 |   13.64   28 |   11.90   30  (afc north)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  (afc south)             =  20.87
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   7  Houston Texans          =  24.51    8   5   0   22.00(   2)   2  3  0 |   6  4  0 |   25.15    6 |   24.67    8 |   24.12    8 |   25.79    6  (afc south)
  11  Jacksonville Jaguars    =  22.62    9   4   0   20.66(  10)   2  3  0 |   5  3  0 |   22.89   10 |   22.69   12 |   22.47   12 |   24.95    8  (afc south)
  14  Indianapolis Colts      =  21.73    8   5   0   19.35(  23)   1  3  0 |   2  4  0 |   22.43   13 |   21.51   14 |   21.36   16 |   22.40   13  (afc south)
  32  Tennessee Titans        =  12.01    2  11   0   21.41(   4)   0  6  0 |   0 10  0 |   12.45   32 |   11.81   32 |   11.02   32 |    9.39   32  (afc south)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  (afc west)              =  21.27
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
                                RATING    W   L   T  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.01]                                                   [  2.15]       [  2.13]       [  1.77]       [  1.77]
   6  Kansas City Chiefs      =  24.77    6   7   0   20.97(   8)   1  4  0 |   3  6  0 |   25.39    4 |   24.02    9 |   25.41    5 |   24.50    9  (afc west)
   9  Denver Broncos          =  23.69   11   2   0   18.20(  31)   3  0  0 |   3  2  0 |   23.09    9 |   24.95    6 |   23.48   10 |   23.65   10  (afc west)
  15  Los Angeles Chargers    =  21.09    9   4   0   18.55(  30)   3  0  0 |   3  2  0 |   20.71   15 |   21.27   16 |   21.39   15 |   22.37   14  (afc west)
  29  Las Vegas Raiders       =  13.27    2  11   0   20.35(  15)   1  3  0 |   1  8  0 |   13.23   29 |   13.32   29 |   12.69   30 |    9.81   31  (afc west)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                      These are the "regular method".                                                           _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted                                                                                                  _
by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team                                                                                       _
An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game                               Rating Favorite                         _
                                                            Strong                   MONEYLINE=odds to 100                      _
          FAVORITE             Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent  UNDERDOG                ODDS   PCT%                 TOTAL   _
====================================================================================================================================


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.01   2.15   2.13   1.77   1.77
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers   5.16   5.71   6.29   3.62   2.79   Atlanta Falcons          198    66%   26.36  20.17  46.52
    2     Buffalo Bills          0.09   0.37   0.09  -0.08  -2.64 @ New England Patriots     101    50%   25.08  24.03  49.11
    3     Washington Redskins    0.08  -1.06   1.31   0.21  -2.97 @ New York Giants          101    50%   23.12  24.83  47.95
    4   @ Philadelphia Eagles   13.10  13.05  13.62  13.54  15.20   Las Vegas Raiders        509    84%   27.21  12.61  39.82
    5   @ Jacksonville Jaguars  11.44  11.90  12.32  10.94  14.46   New York Jets            422    81%   32.04  13.79  45.84
    6     Baltimore Ravens       2.47   2.44   2.05   3.31   3.22 @ Cincinnati Bengals       140    58%   24.48  27.61  52.09
    7   @ Chicago Bears          8.82   7.98   9.40   9.71  12.19   Cleveland Browns         311    76%   26.96  18.21  45.16
    8     Carolina Panthers      2.12   1.42   2.70   2.53   2.86 @ New Orleans Saints       133    57%   19.41  20.34  39.74
    9   @ Kansas City Chiefs     5.69   6.83   4.88   5.78   3.90   Los Angeles Chargers     212    68%   25.41  18.32  43.73
   10   @ Houston Texans        10.08  10.50  10.01  10.55  13.57   Arizona Cardinals        360    78%   26.83  14.40  41.23
   11   @ Dallas Cowboys         1.45   1.09   1.11   2.15   5.18   Minnesota Vikings        122    55%   27.12  23.06  50.18
   12   @ Denver Broncos         0.53   0.58   1.58  -0.60  -1.14   Green Bay Packers        107    52%   21.63  20.21  41.84
   13   @ Los Angeles Rams       3.50   3.70   3.72   3.16   7.18   Detroit Lions            160    62%   30.03  19.71  49.73
   14   @ San Francisco 49ers   12.47  12.17  13.14  13.02  15.88   Tennessee Titans         474    83%   29.73  14.52  44.25
   15   @ Seattle Seahawks       6.49   6.27   6.03   7.74  11.36   Indianapolis Colts       234    70%   29.43  20.72  50.15
   16   @ Pittsburgh Steelers    5.39   5.21   5.94   5.29   4.16   Miami Dolphins           204    67%   25.16  20.27  45.43

EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM
NFL 2025 through games of 2025 December 8 Monday - Week 14
HOME ADVANTAGE=                  2.01   2.15   2.13   1.77   1.77
          FAVORITE             Rating   Pred  Golden Recent Strong  UNDERDOG               MONEY   WIN%    home   away  TOTAL
    1   @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers   0.16   0.71   1.29  -1.38  -2.22   Atlanta Falcons          102    51%   26.36  20.17  46.52
    2   @ New England Patriots   2.45   2.17   2.45   2.62   5.18   Buffalo Bills            139    58%   25.08  24.03  49.11
    3   @ New York Giants       10.04  11.18   8.82   9.92  13.09   Washington Redskins      359    78%   23.12  24.83  47.95
    4   @ Philadelphia Eagles   18.40  18.35  18.92  18.84  20.50   Las Vegas Raiders        904    90%   27.21  12.61  39.82
    5   @ Jacksonville Jaguars  20.08  20.54  20.95  19.58  23.10   New York Jets           1072    91%   32.04  13.79  45.84
    6     Baltimore Ravens       7.06   7.03   6.64   7.90   7.81 @ Cincinnati Bengals       251    72%   24.48  27.61  52.09
    7   @ Chicago Bears         16.55  15.71  17.13  17.44  19.93   Cleveland Browns         744    88%   26.96  18.21  45.16
    8     Carolina Panthers      4.43   3.73   5.02   4.84   5.17 @ New Orleans Saints       181    64%   19.41  20.34  39.74
    9   @ Kansas City Chiefs     9.55  10.69   8.74   9.64   7.76   Los Angeles Chargers     339    77%   25.41  18.32  43.73
   10   @ Houston Texans        11.94  12.36  11.87  12.41  15.43   Arizona Cardinals        446    82%   26.83  14.40  41.23
   11   @ Dallas Cowboys        11.86  11.51  11.52  12.57  15.60   Minnesota Vikings        443    82%   27.12  23.06  50.18
   12   @ Denver Broncos         0.38   0.43   1.42  -0.75  -1.30   Green Bay Packers        105    51%   21.63  20.21  41.84
   13   @ Los Angeles Rams      10.37  10.57  10.59  10.04  14.05   Detroit Lions            373    79%   30.03  19.71  49.73
   14   @ San Francisco 49ers   13.91  13.61  14.59  14.46  17.33   Tennessee Titans         557    85%   29.73  14.52  44.25
   15   @ Seattle Seahawks      14.00  13.79  13.54  15.26  18.88   Indianapolis Colts       563    85%   29.43  20.72  50.15
   16   @ Pittsburgh Steelers    3.19   3.01   3.73   3.09   1.96   Miami Dolphins           154    61%   25.16  20.27  45.43

EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1  @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers   5.17   198   66%    Atlanta Falcons
    2  @ New England Patriots   2.80   146   59%    Buffalo Bills
    3  @ New York Giants        2.26   136   58%    Washington Redskins
    4  @ Philadelphia Eagles   12.45   473   83%    Las Vegas Raiders
    5  @ Jacksonville Jaguars  12.61   482   83%    New York Jets
    6    Baltimore Ravens       1.55   123   55%  @ Cincinnati Bengals
    7  @ Chicago Bears          9.08   320   76%    Cleveland Browns
    8    Carolina Panthers      3.64   163   62%  @ New Orleans Saints
    9  @ Kansas City Chiefs     0.33   105   51%    Los Angeles Chargers
   10  @ Houston Texans        10.17   364   78%    Arizona Cardinals
   11  @ Dallas Cowboys         4.11   173   63%    Minnesota Vikings
   12  @ Denver Broncos         1.64   125   56%    Green Bay Packers
   13  @ Los Angeles Rams       7.29   258   72%    Detroit Lions
   14  @ San Francisco 49ers   14.53   596   86%    Tennessee Titans
   15  @ Seattle Seahawks       6.33   229   70%    Indianapolis Colts
   16  @ Pittsburgh Steelers    3.17   153   61%    Miami Dolphins
endfile

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