NFL Ratings Page

note: clock runs for 30 seconds; it may skip seconds; to restart click reload

Jeff Sagarin's^tm NFL Ratings

[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin



"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the
manpower for that war.  The policies - determining who would be
drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would
escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic
disgrace.  I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These
young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable
(someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are
too good to risk.  I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful
and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably
healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and
National Guard units.  Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw
class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that
all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

NFL 2026 Ratings through results of 2026 OCTOBER 19 MONDAY - WEEK 6

this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 2 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 4 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 8 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 2 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 1 San Francisco 49ers = 25.10 6 0 0 18.38( 29) 3 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 24.85 1 | 25.56 1 | 24.11 6 | 24.84 2 (NFC WEST) 2 Kansas City Chiefs = 24.81 5 0 0 17.71( 30) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 24.49 3 | 25.23 2 | 24.34 5 | 24.66 3 (afc west) 3 Buffalo Bills = 24.26 5 1 0 20.66( 8) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 24.55 2 | 24.96 3 | 22.41 9 | 22.11 9 (afc east) 4 Jacksonville Jaguars = 23.75 4 2 0 20.85( 6) 1 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 24.06 5 | 23.35 5 | 25.08 2 | 24.63 4 (afc south) 5 New England Patriots = 23.46 4 2 0 21.10( 5) 1 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 23.51 7 | 23.28 6 | 24.53 4 | 24.11 6 (afc east) 6 Minnesota Vikings = 23.14 5 0 0 18.67( 27) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 22.27 10 | 23.47 4 | 25.60 1 | 26.26 1 (NFC NORTH) 7 Seattle Seahawks = 23.02 3 3 0 19.82( 22) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 24.11 4 | 23.10 7 | 21.24 13 | 20.60 14 (NFC WEST) 8 Chicago Bears = 22.68 4 2 0 19.90( 19) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 22.69 8 | 22.33 11 | 24.94 3 | 24.47 5 (NFC NORTH) 9 Los Angeles Rams = 22.30 2 4 0 20.39( 12) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 23.60 6 | 23.10 8 | 18.30 22 | 16.95 26 (NFC WEST) 10 Denver Broncos = 22.14 4 2 0 22.81( 1) 3 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 22.14 11 | 22.87 9 | 20.08 19 | 20.24 17 (afc west) NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 11 Baltimore Ravens = 22.13 4 2 0 17.60( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.63 9 | 22.59 10 | 20.32 16 | 19.52 19 (afc north) 12 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.95 3 2 0 19.42( 25) 0 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 22.07 12 | 21.84 13 | 22.68 8 | 22.00 10 (afc north) 13 Detroit Lions = 21.66 3 2 0 18.47( 28) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 21.96 13 | 21.79 14 | 21.56 11 | 20.23 18 (NFC NORTH) 14 Green Bay Packers = 21.51 4 2 0 19.82( 21) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 21.35 15 | 21.95 12 | 21.32 12 | 20.43 15 (NFC NORTH) 15 Houston Texans = 20.74 2 4 0 20.30( 13) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 21.73 14 | 20.48 16 | 19.64 20 | 19.00 20 (afc south) 16 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.54 4 2 0 19.54( 24) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 20.06 17 | 20.63 15 | 21.83 10 | 21.92 11 (afc north) 17 Carolina Panthers = 20.27 3 2 0 19.97( 18) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 20.06 18 | 19.75 17 | 23.24 7 | 23.49 7 (NFC SOUTH) 18 Dallas Cowboys = 19.66 2 4 0 19.55( 23) 0 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 20.50 16 | 19.61 18 | 17.72 24 | 17.35 23 (NFC EAST) 19 Philadelphia Eagles = 19.17 2 4 0 20.02( 17) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 19.58 19 | 19.59 19 | 16.67 26 | 15.69 29 (NFC EAST) 20 Atlanta Falcons = 18.49 2 4 0 20.73( 7) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 18.11 22 | 18.29 20 | 20.42 14 | 20.29 16 (NFC SOUTH) NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 18.24 1 5 0 20.63( 9) 0 1 0 | 0 4 0 | 18.53 21 | 17.89 22 | 19.48 21 | 18.58 22 (NFC SOUTH) 22 Las Vegas Raiders = 18.08 3 3 0 20.17( 16) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 17.32 25 | 17.54 25 | 20.41 15 | 22.34 8 (afc west) 23 Indianapolis Colts = 17.76 2 4 0 19.87( 20) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 18.06 23 | 17.74 23 | 17.01 25 | 17.29 24 (afc south) 24 New York Giants = 17.74 3 2 1 17.21( 32) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 17.49 24 | 18.25 21 | 15.78 28 | 17.05 25 (NFC EAST) 25 Los Angeles Chargers = 17.66 0 6 0 21.16( 4) 0 4 0 | 0 4 0 | 18.62 20 | 17.59 24 | 14.32 30 | 12.37 32 (afc west) 26 Cleveland Browns = 17.54 4 2 0 20.28( 14) 0 1 0 | 2 1 0 | 15.96 28 | 17.46 26 | 20.29 17 | 21.41 13 (afc north) 27 New Orleans Saints = 17.17 2 4 0 20.21( 15) 0 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 16.66 27 | 17.18 27 | 18.27 23 | 18.65 21 (NFC SOUTH) 28 New York Jets = 16.82 2 4 0 20.40( 11) 0 2 0 | 0 4 0 | 15.89 29 | 15.75 29 | 20.13 18 | 21.46 12 (afc east) 29 Washington Redskins = 16.60 1 4 1 20.42( 10) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 17.05 26 | 16.58 28 | 14.83 29 | 15.51 30 (NFC EAST) 30 Tennessee Titans = 14.57 1 5 0 19.05( 26) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 14.78 30 | 14.54 30 | 13.67 32 | 14.58 31 (afc south) NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 31 Arizona Cardinals = 13.85 2 4 0 21.36( 3) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 13.04 31 | 13.83 31 | 13.98 31 | 16.00 27 (NFC WEST) 32 Miami Dolphins = 13.20 0 5 0 22.71( 2) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 12.29 32 | 11.88 32 | 15.80 27 | 15.98 28 (afc east) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 1 (NFC NORTH) = 22.22 22.25 ( 1) 4 22.25 ( 1) 22.2480( 0.7905) 22.0668( 0.5628) 22.3867( 0.7565) 23.3564( 2.2312) 22.8448( 2.9967) 2 (NFC WEST) = 21.60 21.07 ( 2) 4 21.26 ( 2) 21.0688( 4.9556) 21.3997( 5.5956) 21.3977( 5.1782) 19.4076( 4.3256) 19.5985( 4.0203) 3 (afc north) = 20.77 20.54 ( 4) 4 20.55 ( 4) 20.5385( 2.1230) 20.1784( 3.0242) 20.6276( 2.2635) 21.2803( 1.1797) 21.2118( 1.1560) 4 (afc west) = 20.48 20.67 ( 3) 4 20.65 ( 3) 20.6716( 3.4172) 20.6422( 3.2751) 20.8050( 3.8659) 19.7845( 4.1267) 19.9045( 5.3383) 5 (afc east) = 19.67 19.43 ( 5) 4 19.48 ( 5) 19.4340( 5.3273) 19.0608( 5.9379) 18.9701( 6.1930) 20.7177( 3.7408) 20.9173( 3.4792) 6 (afc south) = 19.22 19.21 ( 6) 4 19.21 ( 6) 19.2055( 3.9392) 19.6563( 4.0835) 19.0270( 3.7709) 18.8516( 4.8191) 18.8730( 4.2483) 7 (NFC SOUTH) = 18.48 18.54 ( 7) 4 18.54 ( 7) 18.5413( 1.2844) 18.3386( 1.3969) 18.2792( 1.0827) 20.3534( 2.1153) 20.2508( 2.2959) 8 (NFC EAST) = 18.35 18.29 ( 8) 4 18.29 ( 8) 18.2923( 1.3904) 18.6573( 1.6543) 18.5067( 1.4322) 16.2485( 1.2352) 16.3993( 0.9367) OVERALL 20.0000( 3.2042) 20.0000( 3.4702) 20.0000( 3.4702) 20.0000( 3.4702) 20.0000( 3.4702) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 8 (NFC EAST) = 18.35 18.29 ( 8) 4 18.29 ( 8) 18.2923( 1.3904) 18.6573( 1.6543) 18.5067( 1.4322) 16.2485( 1.2352) 16.3993( 0.9367) 1 (NFC NORTH) = 22.22 22.25 ( 1) 4 22.25 ( 1) 22.2480( 0.7905) 22.0668( 0.5628) 22.3867( 0.7565) 23.3564( 2.2312) 22.8448( 2.9967) 7 (NFC SOUTH) = 18.48 18.54 ( 7) 4 18.54 ( 7) 18.5413( 1.2844) 18.3386( 1.3969) 18.2792( 1.0827) 20.3534( 2.1153) 20.2508( 2.2959) 2 (NFC WEST) = 21.60 21.07 ( 2) 4 21.26 ( 2) 21.0688( 4.9556) 21.3997( 5.5956) 21.3977( 5.1782) 19.4076( 4.3256) 19.5985( 4.0203) 5 (afc east) = 19.67 19.43 ( 5) 4 19.48 ( 5) 19.4340( 5.3273) 19.0608( 5.9379) 18.9701( 6.1930) 20.7177( 3.7408) 20.9173( 3.4792) 3 (afc north) = 20.77 20.54 ( 4) 4 20.55 ( 4) 20.5385( 2.1230) 20.1784( 3.0242) 20.6276( 2.2635) 21.2803( 1.1797) 21.2118( 1.1560) 6 (afc south) = 19.22 19.21 ( 6) 4 19.21 ( 6) 19.2055( 3.9392) 19.6563( 4.0835) 19.0270( 3.7709) 18.8516( 4.8191) 18.8730( 4.2483) 4 (afc west) = 20.48 20.67 ( 3) 4 20.65 ( 3) 20.6716( 3.4172) 20.6422( 3.2751) 20.8050( 3.8659) 19.7845( 4.1267) 19.9045( 5.3383) OVERALL 20.0000( 3.2042) 20.0000( 3.4702) 20.0000( 3.4702) 20.0000( 3.4702) 20.0000( 3.4702) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 (NFC EAST) = 18.35 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 18 Dallas Cowboys = 19.66 2 4 0 19.55( 23) 0 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 20.50 16 | 19.61 18 | 17.72 24 | 17.35 23 (NFC EAST) 19 Philadelphia Eagles = 19.17 2 4 0 20.02( 17) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 19.58 19 | 19.59 19 | 16.67 26 | 15.69 29 (NFC EAST) 24 New York Giants = 17.74 3 2 1 17.21( 32) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 17.49 24 | 18.25 21 | 15.78 28 | 17.05 25 (NFC EAST) 29 Washington Redskins = 16.60 1 4 1 20.42( 10) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 17.05 26 | 16.58 28 | 14.83 29 | 15.51 30 (NFC EAST) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 (NFC NORTH) = 22.22 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 6 Minnesota Vikings = 23.14 5 0 0 18.67( 27) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 22.27 10 | 23.47 4 | 25.60 1 | 26.26 1 (NFC NORTH) 8 Chicago Bears = 22.68 4 2 0 19.90( 19) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 22.69 8 | 22.33 11 | 24.94 3 | 24.47 5 (NFC NORTH) 13 Detroit Lions = 21.66 3 2 0 18.47( 28) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 21.96 13 | 21.79 14 | 21.56 11 | 20.23 18 (NFC NORTH) 14 Green Bay Packers = 21.51 4 2 0 19.82( 21) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 21.35 15 | 21.95 12 | 21.32 12 | 20.43 15 (NFC NORTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 (NFC SOUTH) = 18.48 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 17 Carolina Panthers = 20.27 3 2 0 19.97( 18) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 20.06 18 | 19.75 17 | 23.24 7 | 23.49 7 (NFC SOUTH) 20 Atlanta Falcons = 18.49 2 4 0 20.73( 7) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 18.11 22 | 18.29 20 | 20.42 14 | 20.29 16 (NFC SOUTH) 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 18.24 1 5 0 20.63( 9) 0 1 0 | 0 4 0 | 18.53 21 | 17.89 22 | 19.48 21 | 18.58 22 (NFC SOUTH) 27 New Orleans Saints = 17.17 2 4 0 20.21( 15) 0 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 16.66 27 | 17.18 27 | 18.27 23 | 18.65 21 (NFC SOUTH) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 (NFC WEST) = 21.60 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 1 San Francisco 49ers = 25.10 6 0 0 18.38( 29) 3 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 24.85 1 | 25.56 1 | 24.11 6 | 24.84 2 (NFC WEST) 7 Seattle Seahawks = 23.02 3 3 0 19.82( 22) 1 2 0 | 1 2 0 | 24.11 4 | 23.10 7 | 21.24 13 | 20.60 14 (NFC WEST) 9 Los Angeles Rams = 22.30 2 4 0 20.39( 12) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 23.60 6 | 23.10 8 | 18.30 22 | 16.95 26 (NFC WEST) 31 Arizona Cardinals = 13.85 2 4 0 21.36( 3) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 13.04 31 | 13.83 31 | 13.98 31 | 16.00 27 (NFC WEST) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 (afc east) = 19.67 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 3 Buffalo Bills = 24.26 5 1 0 20.66( 8) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 24.55 2 | 24.96 3 | 22.41 9 | 22.11 9 (afc east) 5 New England Patriots = 23.46 4 2 0 21.10( 5) 1 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 23.51 7 | 23.28 6 | 24.53 4 | 24.11 6 (afc east) 28 New York Jets = 16.82 2 4 0 20.40( 11) 0 2 0 | 0 4 0 | 15.89 29 | 15.75 29 | 20.13 18 | 21.46 12 (afc east) 32 Miami Dolphins = 13.20 0 5 0 22.71( 2) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 12.29 32 | 11.88 32 | 15.80 27 | 15.98 28 (afc east) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 (afc north) = 20.77 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 11 Baltimore Ravens = 22.13 4 2 0 17.60( 31) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 22.63 9 | 22.59 10 | 20.32 16 | 19.52 19 (afc north) 12 Cincinnati Bengals = 21.95 3 2 0 19.42( 25) 0 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 22.07 12 | 21.84 13 | 22.68 8 | 22.00 10 (afc north) 16 Pittsburgh Steelers = 20.54 4 2 0 19.54( 24) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 20.06 17 | 20.63 15 | 21.83 10 | 21.92 11 (afc north) 26 Cleveland Browns = 17.54 4 2 0 20.28( 14) 0 1 0 | 2 1 0 | 15.96 28 | 17.46 26 | 20.29 17 | 21.41 13 (afc north) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 (afc south) = 19.22 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 4 Jacksonville Jaguars = 23.75 4 2 0 20.85( 6) 1 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 24.06 5 | 23.35 5 | 25.08 2 | 24.63 4 (afc south) 15 Houston Texans = 20.74 2 4 0 20.30( 13) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 21.73 14 | 20.48 16 | 19.64 20 | 19.00 20 (afc south) 23 Indianapolis Colts = 17.76 2 4 0 19.87( 20) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 18.06 23 | 17.74 23 | 17.01 25 | 17.29 24 (afc south) 30 Tennessee Titans = 14.57 1 5 0 19.05( 26) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 14.78 30 | 14.54 30 | 13.67 32 | 14.58 31 (afc south) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 (afc west) = 20.48 NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.20] [ 0.18] [ 0.17] [ 0.40] [ 0.40] 2 Kansas City Chiefs = 24.81 5 0 0 17.71( 30) 1 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 24.49 3 | 25.23 2 | 24.34 5 | 24.66 3 (afc west) 10 Denver Broncos = 22.14 4 2 0 22.81( 1) 3 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 22.14 11 | 22.87 9 | 20.08 19 | 20.24 17 (afc west) 22 Las Vegas Raiders = 18.08 3 3 0 20.17( 16) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 17.32 25 | 17.54 25 | 20.41 15 | 22.34 8 (afc west) 25 Los Angeles Chargers = 17.66 0 6 0 21.16( 4) 0 4 0 | 0 4 0 | 18.62 20 | 17.59 24 | 14.32 30 | 12.37 32 (afc west) _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.40 0.40 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 New England Patriots 0.57 0.64 0.78 -0.81 -0.76 @ Chicago Bears 109 52% 19.22 19.09 38.31 0.13 50% 102 2 @ New York Jets 3.82 3.78 4.04 4.74 5.89 Miami Dolphins 175 64% 22.24 16.67 38.92 5.57 69% 223 3 @ Baltimore Ravens 0.39 0.74 0.92 -1.96 -2.07 Cincinnati Bengals 106 51% 24.53 26.37 50.91 -1.84 43% -131 4 @ Carolina Panthers 2.23 1.71 2.03 4.16 5.31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 139 58% 28.48 20.58 49.06 7.90 75% 305 5 @ Detroit Lions 0.35 0.78 0.01 0.64 0.20 Green Bay Packers 105 51% 24.92 24.91 49.82 0.01 50% 100 6 San Francisco 49ers 6.41 6.56 7.09 3.29 4.15 @ Atlanta Falcons 250 71% 22.68 27.37 50.06 -4.69 34% -198 7 Cleveland Browns 2.76 1.00 2.75 6.21 6.43 @ Tennessee Titans 150 60% 12.68 19.52 32.20 -6.84 27% -265 8 N Pittsburgh Steelers 3.37 3.40 3.44 3.56 3.26 @ New Orleans Saints 164 62% 23.25 28.22 51.47 -4.97 33% -206 9 @ Minnesota Vikings 5.58 4.39 5.91 8.99 9.37 Indianapolis Colts 223 69% 25.35 18.11 43.46 7.24 74% 279 10 @ Houston Texans 3.20 4.41 2.41 4.26 2.35 New York Giants 160 62% 25.05 18.50 43.54 6.55 72% 255 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 11 Denver Broncos 8.08 8.92 8.87 5.69 3.84 @ Arizona Cardinals 312 76% 18.89 26.04 44.93 -7.15 27% -276 12 Los Angeles Rams 4.01 6.10 5.39 -2.51 -5.79 @ Las Vegas Raiders 180 64% 26.53 23.92 50.45 2.61 60% 147 13 Kansas City Chiefs 1.58 0.21 1.95 2.70 3.66 @ Seattle Seahawks 126 56% 21.48 25.53 47.01 -4.05 36% -181 14 Dallas Cowboys 0.29 0.74 -0.15 0.65 1.26 @ Philadelphia Eagles 104 51% 23.10 24.24 47.34 -1.15 46% -119 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NFL 2026 ratings through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6 HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.40 0.40 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 @ Chicago Bears 4.74 4.66 4.53 6.12 6.06 New England Patriots 199 67% 21.87 16.44 38.31 5.44 69% 219 2 @ New York Jets 12.60 12.56 12.82 13.52 14.67 Miami Dolphins 551 85% 26.63 12.28 38.92 14.35 87% 680 3 Cincinnati Bengals 6.00 5.65 5.46 8.34 8.46 @ Baltimore Ravens 236 70% 21.34 29.57 50.91 -8.23 24% -318 4 @ Carolina Panthers 1.90 1.37 1.70 3.83 4.98 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 133 57% 28.31 20.74 49.06 7.57 74% 292 5 @ Detroit Lions 1.68 2.11 1.35 1.97 1.54 Green Bay Packers 128 56% 25.58 24.24 49.82 1.34 55% 122 6 San Francisco 49ers 17.01 17.16 17.69 13.89 14.75 @ Atlanta Falcons 927 90% 17.38 32.67 50.06 -15.29 12% -760 7 Cleveland Browns 9.69 7.93 9.68 13.14 13.35 @ Tennessee Titans 384 79% 9.22 22.98 32.20 -13.77 14% -635 8 N Pittsburgh Steelers 4.73 4.76 4.81 4.92 4.63 @ New Orleans Saints 199 67% 22.57 28.91 51.47 -6.34 29% -248 9 @ Minnesota Vikings 13.75 12.55 14.07 17.16 17.54 Indianapolis Colts 633 86% 29.43 14.03 43.46 15.41 89% 771 10 @ Houston Texans 0.60 1.81 -0.20 1.66 -0.25 New York Giants 109 52% 23.74 19.80 43.54 3.94 64% 178 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 11 Denver Broncos 10.70 11.53 11.48 8.30 6.46 @ Arizona Cardinals 435 81% 17.58 27.35 44.93 -9.77 21% -387 12 @ Las Vegas Raiders 7.49 5.40 6.10 14.01 17.29 Los Angeles Rams 288 74% 32.28 18.17 50.45 14.11 87% 661 13 Kansas City Chiefs 4.18 2.81 4.56 5.30 6.27 @ Seattle Seahawks 184 65% 20.18 26.83 47.01 -6.66 28% -258 14 Dallas Cowboys 1.75 2.21 1.31 2.12 2.73 @ Philadelphia Eagles 130 56% 22.37 24.97 47.34 -2.61 40% -147
EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Chicago Bears 0.36 105 51% New England Patriots 2 @ New York Jets 5.83 231 70% Miami Dolphins 3 @ Baltimore Ravens 1.30 121 55% Cincinnati Bengals 4 @ Carolina Panthers 6.36 248 71% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 @ Detroit Lions 0.04 101 50% Green Bay Packers 6 San Francisco 49ers 8.86 345 78% @ Atlanta Falcons 7 Cleveland Browns 5.14 210 68% @ Tennessee Titans 8 N Pittsburgh Steelers 4.15 183 65% @ New Orleans Saints 9 @ Minnesota Vikings 9.41 370 79% Indianapolis Colts 10 New York Giants 1.62 127 56% @ Houston Texans 11 Denver Broncos 3.88 176 64% @ Arizona Cardinals 12 @ Las Vegas Raiders 2.24 139 58% Los Angeles Rams 13 Kansas City Chiefs 4.45 191 66% @ Seattle Seahawks 14 Dallas Cowboys 0.83 113 53% @ Philadelphia Eagles endfile
Top_of_Page

Jeff Sagarin'stm NFL Ratings

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

Divisional Rankings

By Division

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

Top_of_Page

Jeff Sagarin's^tm NFL Ratings