United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2020-2021 ratings through results of 2021 JULY 20 TUESDAY - NBA Finals
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
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Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
1 Utah Jazz = 97.05 58 25 90.37( 12) 16 13 | 30 19 | 97.71 1 | 97.56 1 | 91.23 11 northwest
2 Phoenix Suns = 96.45 65 29 91.01( 1) 29 16 | 41 19 | 96.27 3 | 96.58 2 | 96.91 2 pacific
3 Los Angeles Clippers = 96.33 57 34 90.97( 2) 21 21 | 31 26 | 96.51 2 | 96.14 3 | 96.39 3 pacific
4 Milwaukee Bucks = 95.94 62 33 90.75( 4) 23 17 | 35 24 | 95.92 4 | 95.75 4 | 101.61 1 CENTRAL
5 Philadelphia 76ers = 95.30 56 28 89.86( 30) 13 15 | 22 21 | 95.40 5 | 95.27 5 | 94.32 5 ATLANTIC
6 Brooklyn Nets = 94.89 55 29 90.30( 15) 15 13 | 30 18 | 94.84 6 | 95.00 6 | 94.10 6 ATLANTIC
7 Denver Nuggets = 93.65 51 31 90.43( 10) 11 16 | 25 23 | 93.49 7 | 93.87 7 | 92.84 8 northwest
8 Atlanta Hawks = 92.58 51 39 90.86( 3) 13 21 | 25 29 | 92.36 8 | 92.64 8 | 94.69 4 SOUTHEAST
9 Dallas Mavericks = 92.08 45 34 90.61( 5) 15 15 | 25 20 | 92.33 9 | 92.29 10 | 86.66 23 southwest
10 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.04 45 34 90.54( 6) 10 19 | 19 26 | 91.66 11 | 92.49 9 | 91.23 12 pacific
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
11 New York Knicks = 91.73 42 35 90.05( 26) 10 19 | 16 25 | 91.81 10 | 91.71 12 | 90.94 14 ATLANTIC
12 Portland Trail Blazers = 91.65 44 34 90.35( 13) 12 20 | 18 26 | 91.28 13 | 91.93 11 | 92.61 9 northwest
13 Golden State Warriors = 91.23 39 35 90.12( 24) 10 17 | 15 25 | 91.30 12 | 91.03 14 | 92.88 7 pacific
14 Memphis Grizzlies = 91.05 41 38 90.53( 7) 10 21 | 17 27 | 91.01 14 | 91.06 13 | 91.16 13 southwest
15 Boston Celtics = 90.61 38 40 90.23( 20) 10 19 | 16 25 | 90.87 15 | 90.38 15 | 90.07 15 ATLANTIC
16 Miami Heat = 90.03 40 36 90.28( 16) 7 21 | 14 26 | 89.98 16 | 90.16 16 | 88.93 18 SOUTHEAST
17 Indiana Pacers = 89.38 35 39 89.92( 29) 5 19 | 13 26 | 89.31 19 | 89.51 17 | 88.38 19 CENTRAL
18 Chicago Bulls = 89.19 31 41 90.00( 28) 4 20 | 9 30 | 89.32 18 | 88.82 20 | 92.03 10 CENTRAL
19 New Orleans Pelicans = 89.12 31 41 90.17( 23) 9 17 | 14 27 | 89.33 17 | 88.99 18 | 87.91 21 southwest
20 San Antonio Spurs = 88.83 33 40 90.21( 21) 7 19 | 12 30 | 88.83 21 | 88.90 19 | 87.90 22 southwest
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
21 Toronto Raptors = 88.39 27 45 90.03( 27) 8 16 | 12 27 | 88.87 20 | 88.11 22 | 84.94 25 ATLANTIC
22 Washington Wizards = 88.35 36 43 90.41( 11) 11 18 | 16 29 | 88.42 22 | 88.14 21 | 89.74 16 SOUTHEAST
23 Charlotte Hornets = 87.75 33 40 90.07( 25) 7 17 | 13 26 | 87.67 23 | 88.00 23 | 84.81 26 SOUTHEAST
24 Sacramento Kings = 87.14 31 41 90.27( 18) 11 15 | 15 26 | 87.01 24 | 87.14 24 | 88.34 20 pacific
25 Detroit Pistons = 85.10 20 52 90.17( 22) 5 19 | 9 30 | 85.44 25 | 84.73 25 | 84.79 27 CENTRAL
26 Minnesota Timberwolves = 85.07 23 49 90.33( 14) 5 21 | 9 32 | 84.90 26 | 84.66 26 | 89.52 17 northwest
27 Cleveland Cavaliers = 82.80 22 50 90.25( 19) 6 18 | 10 29 | 82.33 28 | 83.07 27 | 84.04 28 CENTRAL
28 Houston Rockets = 82.57 17 55 90.43( 9) 4 22 | 6 35 | 82.37 27 | 82.16 29 | 86.23 24 southwest
29 Orlando Magic = 82.22 21 51 90.28( 17) 3 21 | 7 32 | 82.20 29 | 82.21 28 | 82.28 30 SOUTHEAST
30 Oklahoma City Thunder = 81.54 22 50 90.47( 8) 6 20 | 10 31 | 81.26 30 | 81.68 30 | 82.53 29 northwest
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 pacific = 92.76 92.64 ( 1) 5 92.66 ( 1)
2 ATLANTIC = 92.21 92.18 ( 2) 5 92.19 ( 2)
3 northwest = 90.11 89.79 ( 3) 5 89.88 ( 3)
4 southwest = 89.08 88.73 ( 4) 5 88.81 ( 4)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.38 88.18 ( 6) 5 88.23 ( 6)
6 CENTRAL = 88.36 88.48 ( 5) 5 88.41 ( 5)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 ATLANTIC = 92.21 92.18 ( 2) 5 92.19 ( 2)
6 CENTRAL = 88.36 88.48 ( 5) 5 88.41 ( 5)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.38 88.18 ( 6) 5 88.23 ( 6)
4 southwest = 89.08 88.73 ( 4) 5 88.81 ( 4)
3 northwest = 90.11 89.79 ( 3) 5 89.88 ( 3)
1 pacific = 92.76 92.64 ( 1) 5 92.66 ( 1)
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2 ATLANTIC = 92.21 92.18 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 92.19 ( 2)
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
5 Philadelphia 76ers = 95.30 56 28 89.86( 30) 13 15 | 22 21 | 95.40 5 | 95.27 5 | 94.32 5 ATLANTIC
6 Brooklyn Nets = 94.89 55 29 90.30( 15) 15 13 | 30 18 | 94.84 6 | 95.00 6 | 94.10 6 ATLANTIC
11 New York Knicks = 91.73 42 35 90.05( 26) 10 19 | 16 25 | 91.81 10 | 91.71 12 | 90.94 14 ATLANTIC
15 Boston Celtics = 90.61 38 40 90.23( 20) 10 19 | 16 25 | 90.87 15 | 90.38 15 | 90.07 15 ATLANTIC
21 Toronto Raptors = 88.39 27 45 90.03( 27) 8 16 | 12 27 | 88.87 20 | 88.11 22 | 84.94 25 ATLANTIC
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6 CENTRAL = 88.36 88.48 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 88.41 ( 5)
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
4 Milwaukee Bucks = 95.94 62 33 90.75( 4) 23 17 | 35 24 | 95.92 4 | 95.75 4 | 101.61 1 CENTRAL
17 Indiana Pacers = 89.38 35 39 89.92( 29) 5 19 | 13 26 | 89.31 19 | 89.51 17 | 88.38 19 CENTRAL
18 Chicago Bulls = 89.19 31 41 90.00( 28) 4 20 | 9 30 | 89.32 18 | 88.82 20 | 92.03 10 CENTRAL
25 Detroit Pistons = 85.10 20 52 90.17( 22) 5 19 | 9 30 | 85.44 25 | 84.73 25 | 84.79 27 CENTRAL
27 Cleveland Cavaliers = 82.80 22 50 90.25( 19) 6 18 | 10 29 | 82.33 28 | 83.07 27 | 84.04 28 CENTRAL
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5 SOUTHEAST = 88.38 88.18 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 88.23 ( 6)
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
8 Atlanta Hawks = 92.58 51 39 90.86( 3) 13 21 | 25 29 | 92.36 8 | 92.64 8 | 94.69 4 SOUTHEAST
16 Miami Heat = 90.03 40 36 90.28( 16) 7 21 | 14 26 | 89.98 16 | 90.16 16 | 88.93 18 SOUTHEAST
22 Washington Wizards = 88.35 36 43 90.41( 11) 11 18 | 16 29 | 88.42 22 | 88.14 21 | 89.74 16 SOUTHEAST
23 Charlotte Hornets = 87.75 33 40 90.07( 25) 7 17 | 13 26 | 87.67 23 | 88.00 23 | 84.81 26 SOUTHEAST
29 Orlando Magic = 82.22 21 51 90.28( 17) 3 21 | 7 32 | 82.20 29 | 82.21 28 | 82.28 30 SOUTHEAST
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4 southwest = 89.08 88.73 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 88.81 ( 4)
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
9 Dallas Mavericks = 92.08 45 34 90.61( 5) 15 15 | 25 20 | 92.33 9 | 92.29 10 | 86.66 23 southwest
14 Memphis Grizzlies = 91.05 41 38 90.53( 7) 10 21 | 17 27 | 91.01 14 | 91.06 13 | 91.16 13 southwest
19 New Orleans Pelicans = 89.12 31 41 90.17( 23) 9 17 | 14 27 | 89.33 17 | 88.99 18 | 87.91 21 southwest
20 San Antonio Spurs = 88.83 33 40 90.21( 21) 7 19 | 12 30 | 88.83 21 | 88.90 19 | 87.90 22 southwest
28 Houston Rockets = 82.57 17 55 90.43( 9) 4 22 | 6 35 | 82.37 27 | 82.16 29 | 86.23 24 southwest
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3 northwest = 90.11 89.79 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 89.88 ( 3)
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
1 Utah Jazz = 97.05 58 25 90.37( 12) 16 13 | 30 19 | 97.71 1 | 97.56 1 | 91.23 11 northwest
7 Denver Nuggets = 93.65 51 31 90.43( 10) 11 16 | 25 23 | 93.49 7 | 93.87 7 | 92.84 8 northwest
12 Portland Trail Blazers = 91.65 44 34 90.35( 13) 12 20 | 18 26 | 91.28 13 | 91.93 11 | 92.61 9 northwest
26 Minnesota Timberwolves = 85.07 23 49 90.33( 14) 5 21 | 9 32 | 84.90 26 | 84.66 26 | 89.52 17 northwest
30 Oklahoma City Thunder = 81.54 22 50 90.47( 8) 6 20 | 10 31 | 81.26 30 | 81.68 30 | 82.53 29 northwest
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1 pacific = 92.76 92.64 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 92.66 ( 1)
Final NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 July 20 Tuesday - NBA Finals
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.17] [ 1.13] [ 1.21] [ 1.13]
2 Phoenix Suns = 96.45 65 29 91.01( 1) 29 16 | 41 19 | 96.27 3 | 96.58 2 | 96.91 2 pacific
3 Los Angeles Clippers = 96.33 57 34 90.97( 2) 21 21 | 31 26 | 96.51 2 | 96.14 3 | 96.39 3 pacific
10 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.04 45 34 90.54( 6) 10 19 | 19 26 | 91.66 11 | 92.49 9 | 91.23 12 pacific
13 Golden State Warriors = 91.23 39 35 90.12( 24) 10 17 | 15 25 | 91.30 12 | 91.03 14 | 92.88 7 pacific
24 Sacramento Kings = 87.14 31 41 90.27( 18) 11 15 | 15 26 | 87.01 24 | 87.14 24 | 88.34 20 pacific
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Predictions_with_Totals
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