United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2014-2015 ratings through results of 2015 JANUARY 28 WEDNESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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GOLDEN_MEAN is completely SCORE BASED but with a different algorithm than the PURE POINTS
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum
fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous;
It is slightly less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS or GOLDEN_MEAN,
in which the score is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR,
BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight
to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
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NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
1 Golden State Warriors = 100.03 36 7 89.38( 27) 9 4 | 15 6 | 100.37 1 | 100.39 1 | 99.50 1
2 Atlanta Hawks = 97.20 38 8 89.04( 30) 9 3 | 16 5 | 96.91 2 | 96.38 3 | 98.64 2
3 Los Angeles Clippers = 95.66 32 14 89.54( 25) 5 8 | 11 11 | 95.72 3 | 96.52 2 | 94.97 5
4 Memphis Grizzlies = 94.85 33 12 89.91( 17) 10 7 | 14 10 | 94.33 7 | 94.32 7 | 96.02 3
5 Houston Rockets = 94.77 32 14 89.98( 13) 6 9 | 12 12 | 95.13 4 | 94.05 8 | 95.21 4
6 Portland Trail Blazers = 94.71 32 14 89.43( 26) 5 9 | 12 11 | 94.46 5 | 94.89 4 | 94.81 6
7 Dallas Mavericks = 94.24 30 17 89.88( 19) 4 10 | 12 13 | 94.38 6 | 94.88 5 | 93.61 9
8 Toronto Raptors = 94.13 31 15 89.11( 29) 4 7 | 10 11 | 94.02 9 | 94.37 6 | 94.04 7
9 San Antonio Spurs = 93.88 30 17 89.80( 21) 8 7 | 13 12 | 94.23 8 | 93.82 9 | 93.65 8
10 Chicago Bulls = 92.51 30 17 89.80( 20) 9 5 | 13 9 | 91.75 13 | 92.35 10 | 93.45 10
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
11 Washington Wizards = 92.08 31 16 89.27( 28) 5 8 | 10 13 | 91.74 14 | 91.42 14 | 93.09 11
12 Cleveland Cavaliers = 91.80 27 20 89.98( 14) 8 8 | 12 13 | 91.82 11 | 91.68 12 | 91.93 12
13 Phoenix Suns = 91.74 27 20 89.63( 23) 6 9 | 10 13 | 91.80 12 | 91.75 11 | 91.69 13
14 New Orleans Pelicans = 91.40 24 22 90.30( 8) 7 11 | 11 14 | 92.26 10 | 91.25 15 | 90.80 14
15 Oklahoma City Thunder = 91.07 23 23 90.40( 7) 2 12 | 8 16 | 91.34 15 | 91.52 13 | 90.46 15
16 Milwaukee Bucks = 90.65 23 22 89.66( 22) 3 11 | 6 16 | 90.69 16 | 91.17 16 | 90.15 16
17 Denver Nuggets = 88.22 19 27 90.50( 6) 4 14 | 9 19 | 88.15 18 | 88.23 17 | 88.29 18
18 Boston Celtics = 87.78 16 28 89.93( 15) 2 15 | 4 20 | 88.64 17 | 87.96 19 | 86.77 22
19 Utah Jazz = 87.62 16 30 90.98( 2) 3 16 | 7 22 | 87.96 19 | 88.19 18 | 86.74 23
20 Miami Heat = 87.43 20 25 90.13( 12) 4 11 | 7 17 | 86.83 24 | 86.79 24 | 88.50 17
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
21 Charlotte Hornets = 87.39 19 27 89.90( 18) 2 13 | 6 20 | 87.37 22 | 87.15 23 | 87.64 19
22 Indiana Pacers = 87.33 16 31 90.23( 11) 2 14 | 4 20 | 87.77 20 | 87.86 21 | 86.37 24
23 Sacramento Kings = 87.27 16 28 90.66( 3) 4 14 | 8 19 | 87.03 23 | 87.92 20 | 86.88 20
24 Detroit Pistons = 86.98 17 30 89.92( 16) 3 12 | 7 20 | 87.54 21 | 87.32 22 | 86.09 25
25 Brooklyn Nets = 86.10 18 27 89.58( 24) 2 12 | 5 17 | 85.76 25 | 85.62 25 | 86.81 21
26 Los Angeles Lakers = 84.82 12 34 91.85( 1) 5 16 | 5 27 | 84.31 26 | 85.21 26 | 84.93 26
27 Orlando Magic = 84.40 15 33 90.27( 10) 3 12 | 5 19 | 84.10 27 | 84.31 27 | 84.75 27
28 New York Knicks = 82.56 9 37 90.29( 9) 0 15 | 3 25 | 83.27 28 | 82.46 28 | 81.89 28
29 Minnesota Timberwolves = 81.52 8 37 90.53( 5) 1 14 | 1 24 | 81.99 29 | 81.53 29 | 81.03 30
30 Philadelphia 76ers = 79.87 9 37 90.65( 4) 0 18 | 2 25 | 78.34 30 | 78.67 30 | 81.30 29
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 SOUTHWEST (west) = 94.03 93.83 ( 1) 5 93.84 ( 1)
2 PACIFIC (west) = 91.77 91.90 ( 2) 5 91.85 ( 2)
3 CENTRAL (EAST) = 89.97 89.85 ( 3) 5 89.86 ( 3)
4 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 89.20 89.70 ( 4) 5 89.57 ( 4)
5 NORTHWEST (west) = 88.70 88.63 ( 5) 5 88.68 ( 5)
6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 85.89 86.09 ( 6) 5 85.99 ( 6)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 85.89 86.09 ( 6) 5 85.99 ( 6)
3 CENTRAL (EAST) = 89.97 89.85 ( 3) 5 89.86 ( 3)
4 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 89.20 89.70 ( 4) 5 89.57 ( 4)
1 SOUTHWEST (west) = 94.03 93.83 ( 1) 5 93.84 ( 1)
5 NORTHWEST (west) = 88.70 88.63 ( 5) 5 88.68 ( 5)
2 PACIFIC (west) = 91.77 91.90 ( 2) 5 91.85 ( 2)
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6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 85.89 86.09 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 85.99 ( 6)
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
8 Toronto Raptors = 94.13 31 15 89.11( 29) 4 7 | 10 11 | 94.02 9 | 94.37 6 | 94.04 7
18 Boston Celtics = 87.78 16 28 89.93( 15) 2 15 | 4 20 | 88.64 17 | 87.96 19 | 86.77 22
25 Brooklyn Nets = 86.10 18 27 89.58( 24) 2 12 | 5 17 | 85.76 25 | 85.62 25 | 86.81 21
28 New York Knicks = 82.56 9 37 90.29( 9) 0 15 | 3 25 | 83.27 28 | 82.46 28 | 81.89 28
30 Philadelphia 76ers = 79.87 9 37 90.65( 4) 0 18 | 2 25 | 78.34 30 | 78.67 30 | 81.30 29
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3 CENTRAL (EAST) = 89.97 89.85 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 89.86 ( 3)
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
10 Chicago Bulls = 92.51 30 17 89.80( 20) 9 5 | 13 9 | 91.75 13 | 92.35 10 | 93.45 10
12 Cleveland Cavaliers = 91.80 27 20 89.98( 14) 8 8 | 12 13 | 91.82 11 | 91.68 12 | 91.93 12
16 Milwaukee Bucks = 90.65 23 22 89.66( 22) 3 11 | 6 16 | 90.69 16 | 91.17 16 | 90.15 16
22 Indiana Pacers = 87.33 16 31 90.23( 11) 2 14 | 4 20 | 87.77 20 | 87.86 21 | 86.37 24
24 Detroit Pistons = 86.98 17 30 89.92( 16) 3 12 | 7 20 | 87.54 21 | 87.32 22 | 86.09 25
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4 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 89.20 89.70 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 89.57 ( 4)
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
2 Atlanta Hawks = 97.20 38 8 89.04( 30) 9 3 | 16 5 | 96.91 2 | 96.38 3 | 98.64 2
11 Washington Wizards = 92.08 31 16 89.27( 28) 5 8 | 10 13 | 91.74 14 | 91.42 14 | 93.09 11
20 Miami Heat = 87.43 20 25 90.13( 12) 4 11 | 7 17 | 86.83 24 | 86.79 24 | 88.50 17
21 Charlotte Hornets = 87.39 19 27 89.90( 18) 2 13 | 6 20 | 87.37 22 | 87.15 23 | 87.64 19
27 Orlando Magic = 84.40 15 33 90.27( 10) 3 12 | 5 19 | 84.10 27 | 84.31 27 | 84.75 27
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 SOUTHWEST (west) = 94.03 93.83 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 93.84 ( 1)
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
4 Memphis Grizzlies = 94.85 33 12 89.91( 17) 10 7 | 14 10 | 94.33 7 | 94.32 7 | 96.02 3
5 Houston Rockets = 94.77 32 14 89.98( 13) 6 9 | 12 12 | 95.13 4 | 94.05 8 | 95.21 4
7 Dallas Mavericks = 94.24 30 17 89.88( 19) 4 10 | 12 13 | 94.38 6 | 94.88 5 | 93.61 9
9 San Antonio Spurs = 93.88 30 17 89.80( 21) 8 7 | 13 12 | 94.23 8 | 93.82 9 | 93.65 8
14 New Orleans Pelicans = 91.40 24 22 90.30( 8) 7 11 | 11 14 | 92.26 10 | 91.25 15 | 90.80 14
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5 NORTHWEST (west) = 88.70 88.63 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 88.68 ( 5)
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
6 Portland Trail Blazers = 94.71 32 14 89.43( 26) 5 9 | 12 11 | 94.46 5 | 94.89 4 | 94.81 6
15 Oklahoma City Thunder = 91.07 23 23 90.40( 7) 2 12 | 8 16 | 91.34 15 | 91.52 13 | 90.46 15
17 Denver Nuggets = 88.22 19 27 90.50( 6) 4 14 | 9 19 | 88.15 18 | 88.23 17 | 88.29 18
19 Utah Jazz = 87.62 16 30 90.98( 2) 3 16 | 7 22 | 87.96 19 | 88.19 18 | 86.74 23
29 Minnesota Timberwolves = 81.52 8 37 90.53( 5) 1 14 | 1 24 | 81.99 29 | 81.53 29 | 81.03 30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 PACIFIC (west) = 91.77 91.90 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 91.85 ( 2)
NBA 2014-2015 through games of 2015 January 28 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.62] [ 1.74] [ 1.97] [ 1.18]
1 Golden State Warriors = 100.03 36 7 89.38( 27) 9 4 | 15 6 | 100.37 1 | 100.39 1 | 99.50 1
3 Los Angeles Clippers = 95.66 32 14 89.54( 25) 5 8 | 11 11 | 95.72 3 | 96.52 2 | 94.97 5
13 Phoenix Suns = 91.74 27 20 89.63( 23) 6 9 | 10 13 | 91.80 12 | 91.75 11 | 91.69 13
23 Sacramento Kings = 87.27 16 28 90.66( 3) 4 14 | 8 19 | 87.03 23 | 87.92 20 | 86.88 20
26 Los Angeles Lakers = 84.82 12 34 91.85( 1) 5 16 | 5 27 | 84.31 26 | 85.21 26 | 84.93 26
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endfile