United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2021-2022 ratings through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
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NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
1 Milwaukee Bucks = 95.95 1 0 92.94( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 95.79 1 | 95.97 1 | 98.74 1 CENTRAL
2 Brooklyn Nets = 95.65 0 1 98.66( 1) 0 1 | 0 1 | 95.77 2 | 95.95 2 | 92.44 9 ATLANTIC
3 Utah Jazz = 94.68 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.71 3 | 94.65 3 | 94.56 3 northwest
4 Phoenix Suns = 94.24 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.26 5 | 94.21 5 | 94.12 4 pacific
5 Los Angeles Lakers = 94.16 0 1 90.86( 4) 0 1 | 0 1 | 94.35 4 | 94.29 4 | 91.28 14 pacific
6 Philadelphia 76ers = 93.79 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.81 6 | 93.76 6 | 93.68 5 ATLANTIC
7 Golden State Warriors = 93.57 1 0 96.87( 2) 1 0 | 1 0 | 93.39 7 | 93.58 7 | 96.20 2 pacific
8 Miami Heat = 93.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.08 8 | 93.03 8 | 92.98 6 SOUTHEAST
9 Dallas Mavericks = 92.87 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.89 9 | 92.84 9 | 92.79 7 southwest
10 Denver Nuggets = 92.65 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.67 10 | 92.62 10 | 92.58 8 northwest
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
11 Atlanta Hawks = 92.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.29 11 | 92.25 11 | 92.21 10 SOUTHEAST
12 Boston Celtics = 92.18 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.19 12 | 92.15 12 | 92.12 11 ATLANTIC
13 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.98 13 | 91.94 13 | 91.91 12 pacific
14 Portland Trail Blazers = 91.56 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.57 14 | 91.54 14 | 91.52 13 northwest
15 Chicago Bulls = 90.62 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.63 15 | 90.60 15 | 90.61 15 CENTRAL
16 Indiana Pacers = 90.58 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.59 16 | 90.56 16 | 90.57 16 CENTRAL
17 New York Knicks = 90.36 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.37 17 | 90.34 17 | 90.35 17 ATLANTIC
18 Memphis Grizzlies = 90.30 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.31 18 | 90.28 18 | 90.30 18 southwest
19 New Orleans Pelicans = 89.30 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 89.30 19 | 89.28 19 | 89.32 19 southwest
20 Charlotte Hornets = 88.81 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.81 20 | 88.80 20 | 88.85 20 SOUTHEAST
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
21 Sacramento Kings = 88.17 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.17 21 | 88.16 21 | 88.23 21 pacific
22 Toronto Raptors = 87.95 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.95 22 | 87.94 22 | 88.01 22 ATLANTIC
23 Minnesota Timberwolves = 87.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.91 23 | 87.90 23 | 87.98 23 northwest
24 Washington Wizards = 86.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 86.90 24 | 86.90 24 | 87.00 24 SOUTHEAST
25 San Antonio Spurs = 84.94 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.91 25 | 84.93 25 | 85.08 25 southwest
26 Houston Rockets = 84.14 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.12 26 | 84.14 26 | 84.31 26 southwest
27 Cleveland Cavaliers = 84.04 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.01 27 | 84.04 27 | 84.21 27 CENTRAL
28 Detroit Pistons = 83.13 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 83.10 28 | 83.13 28 | 83.33 28 CENTRAL
29 Oklahoma City Thunder = 82.35 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 82.32 29 | 82.35 29 | 82.57 29 northwest
30 Orlando Magic = 81.90 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 81.86 30 | 81.90 30 | 82.13 30 SOUTHEAST
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 pacific = 92.82 92.42 ( 1) 5 92.45 ( 1)
2 ATLANTIC = 92.05 91.98 ( 2) 5 91.99 ( 2)
3 northwest = 90.32 89.83 ( 3) 5 89.94 ( 3)
4 CENTRAL = 88.90 88.87 ( 4) 5 88.85 ( 4)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.86 88.59 ( 5) 5 88.65 ( 5)
6 southwest = 88.37 88.31 ( 6) 5 88.31 ( 6)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 ATLANTIC = 92.05 91.98 ( 2) 5 91.99 ( 2)
4 CENTRAL = 88.90 88.87 ( 4) 5 88.85 ( 4)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.86 88.59 ( 5) 5 88.65 ( 5)
6 southwest = 88.37 88.31 ( 6) 5 88.31 ( 6)
3 northwest = 90.32 89.83 ( 3) 5 89.94 ( 3)
1 pacific = 92.82 92.42 ( 1) 5 92.45 ( 1)
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2 ATLANTIC = 92.05 91.98 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 91.99 ( 2)
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
2 Brooklyn Nets = 95.65 0 1 98.66( 1) 0 1 | 0 1 | 95.77 2 | 95.95 2 | 92.44 9 ATLANTIC
6 Philadelphia 76ers = 93.79 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.81 6 | 93.76 6 | 93.68 5 ATLANTIC
12 Boston Celtics = 92.18 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.19 12 | 92.15 12 | 92.12 11 ATLANTIC
17 New York Knicks = 90.36 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.37 17 | 90.34 17 | 90.35 17 ATLANTIC
22 Toronto Raptors = 87.95 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.95 22 | 87.94 22 | 88.01 22 ATLANTIC
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4 CENTRAL = 88.90 88.87 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 88.85 ( 4)
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
1 Milwaukee Bucks = 95.95 1 0 92.94( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 95.79 1 | 95.97 1 | 98.74 1 CENTRAL
15 Chicago Bulls = 90.62 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.63 15 | 90.60 15 | 90.61 15 CENTRAL
16 Indiana Pacers = 90.58 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.59 16 | 90.56 16 | 90.57 16 CENTRAL
27 Cleveland Cavaliers = 84.04 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.01 27 | 84.04 27 | 84.21 27 CENTRAL
28 Detroit Pistons = 83.13 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 83.10 28 | 83.13 28 | 83.33 28 CENTRAL
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5 SOUTHEAST = 88.86 88.59 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 88.65 ( 5)
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
8 Miami Heat = 93.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.08 8 | 93.03 8 | 92.98 6 SOUTHEAST
11 Atlanta Hawks = 92.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.29 11 | 92.25 11 | 92.21 10 SOUTHEAST
20 Charlotte Hornets = 88.81 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.81 20 | 88.80 20 | 88.85 20 SOUTHEAST
24 Washington Wizards = 86.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 86.90 24 | 86.90 24 | 87.00 24 SOUTHEAST
30 Orlando Magic = 81.90 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 81.86 30 | 81.90 30 | 82.13 30 SOUTHEAST
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6 southwest = 88.37 88.31 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 88.31 ( 6)
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
9 Dallas Mavericks = 92.87 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.89 9 | 92.84 9 | 92.79 7 southwest
18 Memphis Grizzlies = 90.30 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.31 18 | 90.28 18 | 90.30 18 southwest
19 New Orleans Pelicans = 89.30 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 89.30 19 | 89.28 19 | 89.32 19 southwest
25 San Antonio Spurs = 84.94 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.91 25 | 84.93 25 | 85.08 25 southwest
26 Houston Rockets = 84.14 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.12 26 | 84.14 26 | 84.31 26 southwest
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3 northwest = 90.32 89.83 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 89.94 ( 3)
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
3 Utah Jazz = 94.68 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.71 3 | 94.65 3 | 94.56 3 northwest
10 Denver Nuggets = 92.65 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.67 10 | 92.62 10 | 92.58 8 northwest
14 Portland Trail Blazers = 91.56 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.57 14 | 91.54 14 | 91.52 13 northwest
23 Minnesota Timberwolves = 87.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.91 23 | 87.90 23 | 87.98 23 northwest
29 Oklahoma City Thunder = 82.35 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 82.32 29 | 82.35 29 | 82.57 29 northwest
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1 pacific = 92.82 92.42 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 92.45 ( 1)
NBA 2021-2022 through results of 2021 OCTOBER 19 TUESDAY 2021 October 19 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71] [ 2.71]
4 Phoenix Suns = 94.24 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.26 5 | 94.21 5 | 94.12 4 pacific
5 Los Angeles Lakers = 94.16 0 1 90.86( 4) 0 1 | 0 1 | 94.35 4 | 94.29 4 | 91.28 14 pacific
7 Golden State Warriors = 93.57 1 0 96.87( 2) 1 0 | 1 0 | 93.39 7 | 93.58 7 | 96.20 2 pacific
13 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.98 13 | 91.94 13 | 91.91 12 pacific
21 Sacramento Kings = 88.17 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.17 21 | 88.16 21 | 88.23 21 pacific
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== NEW YORK KNICKS 0.89 0.88 0.90 0.94 boston celtics 112 53% 222.50 TORONTO RAPTORS 3.75 3.76 3.75 3.72 washington wizards 162 62% 222.50 CHARLOTTE HORNETS 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.99 indiana pacers 113 53% 222.50 chicago bulls 4.78 4.81 4.76 4.57 DETROIT PISTONS 184 65% 222.50 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 8.97 9.00 8.95 8.79 cleveland cavaliers 301 75% 222.50 philadelphia 76ers 1.78 1.80 1.77 1.66 NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 126 56% 222.50 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLV 6.48 6.50 6.47 6.38 houston rockets 226 69% 222.50 SAN ANTONIO SPURS 5.75 5.76 5.74 5.66 orlando magic 207 67% 222.50 UTAH JAZZ 15.04 15.10 15.00 14.69 oklahoma city thunde 587 85% 222.50 PHOENIX SUNS 4.30 4.30 4.29 4.25 denver nuggets 173 63% 222.50 PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZE 6.10 6.12 6.09 6.00 sacramento kings 216 68% 222.50 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ New York Knicks 2.71 142 59% Boston Celtics 2 @ Toronto Raptors 2.71 142 59% Washington Wizards 3 @ Charlotte Hornets 2.71 142 59% Indiana Pacers 4 @ Detroit Pistons 2.71 142 59% Chicago Bulls 5 @ Memphis Grizzlies 2.71 142 59% Cleveland Cavaliers 6 @ New Orleans Pelicans 2.71 142 59% Philadelphia 76ers 7 @ Minnesota Timberwolv 2.71 142 59% Houston Rockets 8 @ San Antonio Spurs 2.71 142 59% Orlando Magic 9 @ Utah Jazz 2.71 142 59% Oklahoma City Thunde 10 @ Phoenix Suns 2.71 142 59% Denver Nuggets 11 @ Portland Trail Blaze 2.71 142 59% Sacramento Kings endfileTop_of_Page