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NBA 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 APRIL 23 TUESDAY - FIRST ROUND PLAYOFFS
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
where you can check out the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
1 Boston Celtics = 100.41 65 18 89.49( 30) 15 9 | 27 14 | 100.60 1 | 100.28 1 | 100.20 1 | 97.42 2 ATLANTIC
2 Oklahoma City Thunder = 96.84 58 25 90.11( 15) 19 9 | 28 18 | 97.21 2 | 96.70 2 | 96.25 2 | 95.98 8 northwest
3 Minnesota Timberwolves = 96.32 58 26 90.06( 17) 18 12 | 28 19 | 96.57 3 | 96.61 3 | 95.40 4 | 94.80 11 northwest
4 Denver Nuggets = 95.50 59 25 90.03( 19) 17 11 | 28 18 | 95.16 4 | 95.75 4 | 96.14 3 | 97.38 3 northwest
5 New Orleans Pelicans = 94.20 50 35 90.28( 10) 13 14 | 26 22 | 94.39 5 | 94.00 6 | 94.09 5 | 91.13 15 southwest
6 New York Knicks = 94.18 52 32 89.81( 24) 7 15 | 19 23 | 94.30 6 | 94.10 5 | 94.03 6 | 93.96 12 ATLANTIC
7 Los Angeles Clippers = 93.17 52 32 90.26( 11) 14 15 | 22 26 | 93.39 7 | 93.66 7 | 91.92 14 | 90.92 16 pacific
8 Phoenix Suns = 93.00 49 35 90.35( 7) 13 15 | 23 24 | 92.75 8 | 93.02 8 | 93.69 9 | 95.98 7 pacific
9 Indiana Pacers = 92.76 48 37 89.88( 22) 10 12 | 23 20 | 92.57 9 | 92.41 12 | 93.96 7 | 98.14 1 CENTRAL
10 Golden State Warriors = 92.64 46 37 90.34( 8) 7 21 | 16 31 | 92.48 10 | 92.58 9 | 93.21 11 | 94.99 10 pacific
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
11 Dallas Mavericks = 92.62 51 33 90.31( 9) 14 19 | 19 27 | 92.24 14 | 92.50 11 | 93.95 8 | 96.23 6 southwest
12 Sacramento Kings = 92.58 47 37 90.73( 5) 15 22 | 24 27 | 92.47 11 | 92.38 13 | 93.26 10 | 97.30 4 pacific
13 Milwaukee Bucks = 92.35 50 34 89.87( 23) 15 15 | 23 20 | 92.31 13 | 92.52 10 | 92.23 12 | 88.33 21 CENTRAL
14 Philadelphia 76ers = 92.17 48 37 89.68( 26) 9 18 | 14 26 | 92.42 12 | 91.97 15 | 91.87 16 | 96.34 5 ATLANTIC
15 Cleveland Cavaliers = 92.01 50 34 89.59( 28) 10 14 | 17 21 | 92.14 15 | 92.23 14 | 91.37 17 | 88.97 19 CENTRAL
16 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.56 49 37 90.82( 2) 19 19 | 25 26 | 91.31 16 | 91.61 16 | 92.20 13 | 93.72 13 pacific
17 Miami Heat = 91.36 47 38 89.55( 29) 4 20 | 14 28 | 91.19 19 | 91.32 18 | 91.91 15 | 95.24 9 SOUTHEAST
18 Orlando Magic = 91.13 47 37 89.65( 27) 12 12 | 17 26 | 91.24 17 | 91.35 17 | 90.52 19 | 88.77 20 SOUTHEAST
19 Houston Rockets = 91.03 41 41 90.23( 12) 11 20 | 19 29 | 91.22 18 | 90.90 19 | 90.79 18 | 89.57 18 southwest
20 Chicago Bulls = 88.39 40 44 89.76( 25) 9 16 | 15 27 | 88.21 20 | 88.37 20 | 88.90 20 | 90.21 17 CENTRAL
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
21 Atlanta Hawks = 87.49 36 47 89.90( 21) 9 16 | 14 28 | 87.51 21 | 87.60 21 | 87.30 21 | 84.73 22 SOUTHEAST
22 Brooklyn Nets = 86.73 32 50 89.93( 20) 4 21 | 8 34 | 87.02 22 | 87.01 22 | 85.44 23 | 84.03 24 ATLANTIC
23 Utah Jazz = 85.78 31 51 90.80( 3) 8 26 | 13 37 | 85.84 23 | 86.28 23 | 84.67 24 | 80.44 28 northwest
24 San Antonio Spurs = 84.66 22 60 90.78( 4) 10 23 | 11 38 | 84.29 24 | 83.94 24 | 86.42 22 | 91.55 14 southwest
25 Memphis Grizzlies = 83.60 27 55 90.55( 6) 6 25 | 12 36 | 83.55 26 | 83.91 25 | 83.19 25 | 81.16 26 southwest
26 Toronto Raptors = 83.31 25 57 90.07( 16) 5 21 | 9 33 | 83.65 25 | 83.73 26 | 81.18 29 | 75.36 30 ATLANTIC
27 Portland Trail Blazers = 81.99 21 61 90.84( 1) 3 30 | 7 42 | 81.86 27 | 82.18 27 | 82.02 26 | 81.03 27 northwest
28 Detroit Pistons = 80.90 14 68 90.17( 13) 1 23 | 3 39 | 81.15 28 | 80.38 29 | 81.00 30 | 78.57 29 CENTRAL
29 Washington Wizards = 80.86 15 67 90.04( 18) 1 23 | 3 38 | 80.88 29 | 80.20 30 | 81.68 27 | 84.30 23 SOUTHEAST
30 Charlotte Hornets = 80.46 21 61 90.16( 14) 4 21 | 7 35 | 80.07 30 | 80.52 28 | 81.21 28 | 83.45 25 SOUTHEAST
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 pacific = 92.64 92.59 ( 1) 5 92.59 ( 1)
2 northwest = 92.17 91.29 ( 3) 5 91.29 ( 3)
3 ATLANTIC = 91.34 91.36 ( 2) 5 91.36 ( 2)
4 CENTRAL = 90.13 89.28 ( 4) 5 89.28 ( 4)
5 southwest = 89.50 89.22 ( 5) 5 89.22 ( 5)
6 SOUTHEAST = 86.48 86.26 ( 6) 5 86.26 ( 6)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
3 ATLANTIC = 91.34 91.36 ( 2) 5 91.36 ( 2)
4 CENTRAL = 90.13 89.28 ( 4) 5 89.28 ( 4)
6 SOUTHEAST = 86.48 86.26 ( 6) 5 86.26 ( 6)
5 southwest = 89.50 89.22 ( 5) 5 89.22 ( 5)
2 northwest = 92.17 91.29 ( 3) 5 91.29 ( 3)
1 pacific = 92.64 92.59 ( 1) 5 92.59 ( 1)
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3 ATLANTIC = 91.34
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
1 Boston Celtics = 100.41 65 18 89.49( 30) 15 9 | 27 14 | 100.60 1 | 100.28 1 | 100.20 1 | 97.42 2 ATLANTIC
6 New York Knicks = 94.18 52 32 89.81( 24) 7 15 | 19 23 | 94.30 6 | 94.10 5 | 94.03 6 | 93.96 12 ATLANTIC
14 Philadelphia 76ers = 92.17 48 37 89.68( 26) 9 18 | 14 26 | 92.42 12 | 91.97 15 | 91.87 16 | 96.34 5 ATLANTIC
22 Brooklyn Nets = 86.73 32 50 89.93( 20) 4 21 | 8 34 | 87.02 22 | 87.01 22 | 85.44 23 | 84.03 24 ATLANTIC
26 Toronto Raptors = 83.31 25 57 90.07( 16) 5 21 | 9 33 | 83.65 25 | 83.73 26 | 81.18 29 | 75.36 30 ATLANTIC
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4 CENTRAL = 90.13
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
9 Indiana Pacers = 92.76 48 37 89.88( 22) 10 12 | 23 20 | 92.57 9 | 92.41 12 | 93.96 7 | 98.14 1 CENTRAL
13 Milwaukee Bucks = 92.35 50 34 89.87( 23) 15 15 | 23 20 | 92.31 13 | 92.52 10 | 92.23 12 | 88.33 21 CENTRAL
15 Cleveland Cavaliers = 92.01 50 34 89.59( 28) 10 14 | 17 21 | 92.14 15 | 92.23 14 | 91.37 17 | 88.97 19 CENTRAL
20 Chicago Bulls = 88.39 40 44 89.76( 25) 9 16 | 15 27 | 88.21 20 | 88.37 20 | 88.90 20 | 90.21 17 CENTRAL
28 Detroit Pistons = 80.90 14 68 90.17( 13) 1 23 | 3 39 | 81.15 28 | 80.38 29 | 81.00 30 | 78.57 29 CENTRAL
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6 SOUTHEAST = 86.48
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
17 Miami Heat = 91.36 47 38 89.55( 29) 4 20 | 14 28 | 91.19 19 | 91.32 18 | 91.91 15 | 95.24 9 SOUTHEAST
18 Orlando Magic = 91.13 47 37 89.65( 27) 12 12 | 17 26 | 91.24 17 | 91.35 17 | 90.52 19 | 88.77 20 SOUTHEAST
21 Atlanta Hawks = 87.49 36 47 89.90( 21) 9 16 | 14 28 | 87.51 21 | 87.60 21 | 87.30 21 | 84.73 22 SOUTHEAST
29 Washington Wizards = 80.86 15 67 90.04( 18) 1 23 | 3 38 | 80.88 29 | 80.20 30 | 81.68 27 | 84.30 23 SOUTHEAST
30 Charlotte Hornets = 80.46 21 61 90.16( 14) 4 21 | 7 35 | 80.07 30 | 80.52 28 | 81.21 28 | 83.45 25 SOUTHEAST
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5 southwest = 89.50
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
5 New Orleans Pelicans = 94.20 50 35 90.28( 10) 13 14 | 26 22 | 94.39 5 | 94.00 6 | 94.09 5 | 91.13 15 southwest
11 Dallas Mavericks = 92.62 51 33 90.31( 9) 14 19 | 19 27 | 92.24 14 | 92.50 11 | 93.95 8 | 96.23 6 southwest
19 Houston Rockets = 91.03 41 41 90.23( 12) 11 20 | 19 29 | 91.22 18 | 90.90 19 | 90.79 18 | 89.57 18 southwest
24 San Antonio Spurs = 84.66 22 60 90.78( 4) 10 23 | 11 38 | 84.29 24 | 83.94 24 | 86.42 22 | 91.55 14 southwest
25 Memphis Grizzlies = 83.60 27 55 90.55( 6) 6 25 | 12 36 | 83.55 26 | 83.91 25 | 83.19 25 | 81.16 26 southwest
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2 northwest = 92.17
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
2 Oklahoma City Thunder = 96.84 58 25 90.11( 15) 19 9 | 28 18 | 97.21 2 | 96.70 2 | 96.25 2 | 95.98 8 northwest
3 Minnesota Timberwolves = 96.32 58 26 90.06( 17) 18 12 | 28 19 | 96.57 3 | 96.61 3 | 95.40 4 | 94.80 11 northwest
4 Denver Nuggets = 95.50 59 25 90.03( 19) 17 11 | 28 18 | 95.16 4 | 95.75 4 | 96.14 3 | 97.38 3 northwest
23 Utah Jazz = 85.78 31 51 90.80( 3) 8 26 | 13 37 | 85.84 23 | 86.28 23 | 84.67 24 | 80.44 28 northwest
27 Portland Trail Blazers = 81.99 21 61 90.84( 1) 3 30 | 7 42 | 81.86 27 | 82.18 27 | 82.02 26 | 81.03 27 northwest
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1 pacific = 92.64
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 23 Tuesday - First Round Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.08] [ 2.18] [ 2.04] [ 1.91] [ 1.91]
7 Los Angeles Clippers = 93.17 52 32 90.26( 11) 14 15 | 22 26 | 93.39 7 | 93.66 7 | 91.92 14 | 90.92 16 pacific
8 Phoenix Suns = 93.00 49 35 90.35( 7) 13 15 | 23 24 | 92.75 8 | 93.02 8 | 93.69 9 | 95.98 7 pacific
10 Golden State Warriors = 92.64 46 37 90.34( 8) 7 21 | 16 31 | 92.48 10 | 92.58 9 | 93.21 11 | 94.99 10 pacific
12 Sacramento Kings = 92.58 47 37 90.73( 5) 15 22 | 24 27 | 92.47 11 | 92.38 13 | 93.26 10 | 97.30 4 pacific
16 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.56 49 37 90.82( 2) 19 19 | 25 26 | 91.31 16 | 91.61 16 | 92.20 13 | 93.72 13 pacific
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ Original Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ============================================================================================================== BOSTON CELTICS 11.21 11.67 11.07 10.28 7.92 miami heat 372 79% 209.85 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDE 4.53 4.81 4.55 3.88 4.93 new orleans pelicans 175 64% 221.39 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Celtics 9.53 310 76% Miami Heat 2 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 4.18 168 63% New Orleans Pelicans endfileTop_of_Page