United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2013-2014 ratings through results of 2014 MARCH 5 WEDNESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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In PURE_ELO, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very good at retro-fitting the W-L results. However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR
of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more weight to the two SCORE-BASED methods
and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
PURE_ELO Retrodictive Summary: RIGHT-WRONG-TIES=638-273-0 .7003(ignore ties) .7003(tie counts as half-right and half-wrong)
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NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 97.06 46 15 90.18( 14) 15 8 | 23 11 | 97.13 1 | 96.72 2 | 97.89 1
2 Los Angeles Clippers = 96.68 42 20 90.65( 6) 13 10 | 22 14 | 96.91 2 | 97.20 1 | 95.71 6
3 San Antonio Spurs = 96.45 44 16 90.46( 10) 9 11 | 20 14 | 96.31 3 | 96.35 3 | 96.67 3
4 Miami Heat = 96.28 43 15 89.36( 27) 11 4 | 18 8 | 96.27 4 | 95.81 5 | 97.52 2
5 Indiana Pacers = 95.94 46 15 89.01( 30) 10 6 | 18 10 | 95.91 5 | 95.96 4 | 95.89 5
6 Houston Rockets = 95.38 42 19 90.22( 13) 11 8 | 21 13 | 95.44 7 | 95.03 8 | 96.20 4
7 Portland Trail Blazers = 95.10 42 19 90.28( 12) 13 10 | 18 15 | 93.98 8 | 95.23 7 | 95.12 7
8 Golden State Warriors = 94.81 38 24 90.72( 4) 9 12 | 15 20 | 95.46 6 | 95.36 6 | 93.68 8
9 Minnesota Timberwolves = 92.96 30 30 90.56( 7) 4 17 | 11 21 | 93.29 9 | 94.11 9 | 90.80 16
10 Toronto Raptors = 92.85 33 26 89.91( 19) 4 13 | 14 18 | 93.02 10 | 93.21 10 | 92.09 12
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
11 Phoenix Suns = 92.31 35 25 89.95( 16) 11 11 | 12 19 | 92.45 12 | 92.43 11 | 92.02 13
12 Dallas Mavericks = 92.31 36 26 90.28( 11) 6 16 | 13 19 | 92.46 11 | 92.38 12 | 92.11 11
13 Memphis Grizzlies = 91.59 34 26 90.47( 8) 9 13 | 14 19 | 90.98 14 | 91.29 13 | 92.41 9
14 Chicago Bulls = 91.38 34 27 89.48( 25) 6 12 | 12 16 | 91.79 13 | 90.95 14 | 92.23 10
15 Washington Wizards = 90.83 32 29 89.50( 24) 6 15 | 11 19 | 90.68 15 | 90.68 15 | 91.18 14
16 Brooklyn Nets = 89.53 30 29 89.91( 18) 7 14 | 12 18 | 90.26 16 | 88.68 17 | 91.14 15
17 Charlotte Bobcats = 88.97 28 33 89.99( 15) 7 14 | 10 22 | 88.86 17 | 88.60 19 | 89.78 17
18 Atlanta Hawks = 88.41 26 33 89.93( 17) 6 12 | 8 23 | 88.35 19 | 88.62 18 | 87.95 18
19 Sacramento Kings = 88.14 22 39 90.66( 5) 6 18 | 11 24 | 88.56 18 | 88.69 16 | 86.73 22
20 New Orleans Pelicans = 87.70 24 37 90.86( 2) 2 19 | 7 29 | 87.87 20 | 87.63 20 | 87.78 19
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
21 Denver Nuggets = 87.39 26 34 90.47( 9) 7 15 | 14 22 | 87.41 21 | 87.31 21 | 87.54 20
22 New York Knicks = 86.57 22 40 89.89( 20) 3 17 | 7 25 | 86.90 22 | 86.99 22 | 85.45 26
23 Detroit Pistons = 86.17 24 37 89.31( 28) 3 14 | 10 22 | 86.36 23 | 86.42 23 | 85.53 24
24 Utah Jazz = 85.63 21 40 91.16( 1) 3 22 | 7 31 | 84.56 27 | 85.12 27 | 86.78 21
25 Cleveland Cavaliers = 85.46 24 38 89.41( 26) 3 14 | 8 24 | 85.02 26 | 85.15 26 | 86.16 23
26 Los Angeles Lakers = 85.33 21 40 90.76( 3) 6 16 | 8 27 | 85.55 24 | 85.22 25 | 85.48 25
27 Boston Celtics = 85.18 20 41 89.62( 22) 3 18 | 4 26 | 85.25 25 | 85.46 24 | 84.49 27
28 Orlando Magic = 83.84 19 44 89.60( 23) 3 16 | 5 25 | 83.13 28 | 84.14 28 | 83.26 28
29 Milwaukee Bucks = 81.02 12 48 89.29( 29) 0 16 | 2 28 | 81.50 29 | 81.09 29 | 80.74 29
30 Philadelphia 76ers = 78.73 15 46 89.65( 21) 3 15 | 6 25 | 78.36 30 | 78.16 30 | 79.66 30
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 SOUTHWEST (west) = 92.78 92.69 ( 1) 5 92.74 ( 1)
2 NORTHWEST (west) = 91.84 91.63 ( 2) 5 91.72 ( 2)
3 PACIFIC (west) = 91.65 91.45 ( 3) 5 91.54 ( 3)
4 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 89.50 89.67 ( 4) 5 89.59 ( 4)
5 CENTRAL (EAST) = 87.68 87.99 ( 5) 5 87.84 ( 5)
6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 86.74 86.57 ( 6) 5 86.73 ( 6)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 86.74 86.57 ( 6) 5 86.73 ( 6)
5 CENTRAL (EAST) = 87.68 87.99 ( 5) 5 87.84 ( 5)
4 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 89.50 89.67 ( 4) 5 89.59 ( 4)
1 SOUTHWEST (west) = 92.78 92.69 ( 1) 5 92.74 ( 1)
2 NORTHWEST (west) = 91.84 91.63 ( 2) 5 91.72 ( 2)
3 PACIFIC (west) = 91.65 91.45 ( 3) 5 91.54 ( 3)
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6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 86.74 86.57 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 86.73 ( 6)
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
10 Toronto Raptors = 92.85 33 26 89.91( 19) 4 13 | 14 18 | 93.02 10 | 93.21 10 | 92.09 12
16 Brooklyn Nets = 89.53 30 29 89.91( 18) 7 14 | 12 18 | 90.26 16 | 88.68 17 | 91.14 15
22 New York Knicks = 86.57 22 40 89.89( 20) 3 17 | 7 25 | 86.90 22 | 86.99 22 | 85.45 26
27 Boston Celtics = 85.18 20 41 89.62( 22) 3 18 | 4 26 | 85.25 25 | 85.46 24 | 84.49 27
30 Philadelphia 76ers = 78.73 15 46 89.65( 21) 3 15 | 6 25 | 78.36 30 | 78.16 30 | 79.66 30
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5 CENTRAL (EAST) = 87.68 87.99 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 87.84 ( 5)
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
5 Indiana Pacers = 95.94 46 15 89.01( 30) 10 6 | 18 10 | 95.91 5 | 95.96 4 | 95.89 5
14 Chicago Bulls = 91.38 34 27 89.48( 25) 6 12 | 12 16 | 91.79 13 | 90.95 14 | 92.23 10
23 Detroit Pistons = 86.17 24 37 89.31( 28) 3 14 | 10 22 | 86.36 23 | 86.42 23 | 85.53 24
25 Cleveland Cavaliers = 85.46 24 38 89.41( 26) 3 14 | 8 24 | 85.02 26 | 85.15 26 | 86.16 23
29 Milwaukee Bucks = 81.02 12 48 89.29( 29) 0 16 | 2 28 | 81.50 29 | 81.09 29 | 80.74 29
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4 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 89.50 89.67 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 89.59 ( 4)
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
4 Miami Heat = 96.28 43 15 89.36( 27) 11 4 | 18 8 | 96.27 4 | 95.81 5 | 97.52 2
15 Washington Wizards = 90.83 32 29 89.50( 24) 6 15 | 11 19 | 90.68 15 | 90.68 15 | 91.18 14
17 Charlotte Bobcats = 88.97 28 33 89.99( 15) 7 14 | 10 22 | 88.86 17 | 88.60 19 | 89.78 17
18 Atlanta Hawks = 88.41 26 33 89.93( 17) 6 12 | 8 23 | 88.35 19 | 88.62 18 | 87.95 18
28 Orlando Magic = 83.84 19 44 89.60( 23) 3 16 | 5 25 | 83.13 28 | 84.14 28 | 83.26 28
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1 SOUTHWEST (west) = 92.78 92.69 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 92.74 ( 1)
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
3 San Antonio Spurs = 96.45 44 16 90.46( 10) 9 11 | 20 14 | 96.31 3 | 96.35 3 | 96.67 3
6 Houston Rockets = 95.38 42 19 90.22( 13) 11 8 | 21 13 | 95.44 7 | 95.03 8 | 96.20 4
12 Dallas Mavericks = 92.31 36 26 90.28( 11) 6 16 | 13 19 | 92.46 11 | 92.38 12 | 92.11 11
13 Memphis Grizzlies = 91.59 34 26 90.47( 8) 9 13 | 14 19 | 90.98 14 | 91.29 13 | 92.41 9
20 New Orleans Pelicans = 87.70 24 37 90.86( 2) 2 19 | 7 29 | 87.87 20 | 87.63 20 | 87.78 19
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2 NORTHWEST (west) = 91.84 91.63 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 91.72 ( 2)
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 97.06 46 15 90.18( 14) 15 8 | 23 11 | 97.13 1 | 96.72 2 | 97.89 1
7 Portland Trail Blazers = 95.10 42 19 90.28( 12) 13 10 | 18 15 | 93.98 8 | 95.23 7 | 95.12 7
9 Minnesota Timberwolves = 92.96 30 30 90.56( 7) 4 17 | 11 21 | 93.29 9 | 94.11 9 | 90.80 16
21 Denver Nuggets = 87.39 26 34 90.47( 9) 7 15 | 14 22 | 87.41 21 | 87.31 21 | 87.54 20
24 Utah Jazz = 85.63 21 40 91.16( 1) 3 22 | 7 31 | 84.56 27 | 85.12 27 | 86.78 21
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3 PACIFIC (west) = 91.65 91.45 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 91.54 ( 3)
NBA 2013-2014 through games of 2014 March 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | PURE_ELO
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.39] [ 2.36] [ 2.51] [ 2.12]
2 Los Angeles Clippers = 96.68 42 20 90.65( 6) 13 10 | 22 14 | 96.91 2 | 97.20 1 | 95.71 6
8 Golden State Warriors = 94.81 38 24 90.72( 4) 9 12 | 15 20 | 95.46 6 | 95.36 6 | 93.68 8
11 Phoenix Suns = 92.31 35 25 89.95( 16) 11 11 | 12 19 | 92.45 12 | 92.43 11 | 92.02 13
19 Sacramento Kings = 88.14 22 39 90.66( 5) 6 18 | 11 24 | 88.56 18 | 88.69 16 | 86.73 22
26 Los Angeles Lakers = 85.33 21 40 90.76( 3) 6 16 | 8 27 | 85.55 24 | 85.22 25 | 85.48 25
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endfile