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Jeff Sagarin'stm NBA Ratings


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All Contents Copyright © 2016 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NBA 2016-2017 ratings through results of 2016 DECEMBER 5 MONDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

just click on "New_Feature" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   1  Golden State Warriors   = 100.73   18   3   88.62(  29)    3   2  |    6   2  |  100.97    1 |  100.54    1 |  100.28    1
   2  Los Angeles Clippers    =  97.48   16   6   90.07(  12)    6   2  |   11   3  |   97.74    2 |   96.99    3 |   96.99    3
   3  Toronto Raptors         =  96.24   14   7   90.32(  10)    3   5  |    6   5  |   96.47    3 |   95.69    4 |   95.78    4
   4  San Antonio Spurs       =  95.88   17   4   90.76(   7)    5   3  |    7   3  |   95.41    4 |   97.05    2 |   97.18    2
   5  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  95.13   14   5   89.59(  20)    6   1  |    8   3  |   95.02    5 |   95.53    5 |   95.37    5
   6  Houston Rockets         =  94.12   14   7   91.91(   2)    5   5  |    7   5  |   94.01    6 |   94.04    6 |   94.36    6
   7  Utah Jazz               =  93.79   13   9   89.90(  16)    2   3  |    3   7  |   93.96    7 |   93.41    7 |   93.45    7
   8  Detroit Pistons         =  92.80   11  11   90.81(   6)    3   7  |    5   7  |   92.99    8 |   92.29    8 |   92.40    8
   9  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  91.85   14   8   88.90(  27)    3   4  |    4   4  |   91.65   11 |   92.22    9 |   92.29    9
  10  Boston Celtics          =  91.81   12   9   90.02(  14)    1   5  |    4   6  |   91.72   10 |   92.17   10 |   91.99   10
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
  11  Chicago Bulls           =  91.43   11   9   89.25(  23)    3   2  |    4   3  |   91.73    9 |   90.67   12 |   90.81   12
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  90.79   12   9   89.01(  26)    1   5  |    4   7  |   90.77   12 |   90.75   11 |   90.84   11
  13  Memphis Grizzlies       =  89.90   14   8   89.28(  22)    2   2  |    5   6  |   89.53   13 |   90.60   13 |   90.68   13
  14  Portland Trail Blazers  =  89.55   12  10   90.23(  11)    1   6  |    3   7  |   89.24   15 |   90.27   14 |   90.20   14
  15  Milwaukee Bucks         =  89.09   10   9   88.33(  30)    1   4  |    2   5  |   89.13   16 |   88.82   18 |   89.00   16
  16  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  88.86    6  14   89.60(  19)    0   5  |    2   8  |   89.30   14 |   88.20   20 |   87.88   20
  17  New York Knicks         =  88.70   11   9   89.96(  15)    1   7  |    7   8  |   88.34   20 |   89.30   15 |   89.43   15
  18  Atlanta Hawks           =  88.55   10  12   89.70(  18)    2   5  |    4   6  |   88.49   19 |   88.90   17 |   88.67   18
  19  Denver Nuggets          =  88.53    8  13   91.23(   4)    2   9  |    4  12  |   88.61   17 |   88.43   19 |   88.37   19
  20  Miami Heat              =  88.27    7  13   90.85(   5)    1   7  |    3  11  |   88.54   18 |   87.63   22 |   87.66   21
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
  21  Indiana Pacers          =  87.96   10  11   89.23(  24)    4   3  |    5   7  |   87.52   23 |   88.94   16 |   88.84   17
  22  Washington Wizards      =  87.87    7  12   89.48(  21)    1   6  |    1   8  |   87.99   21 |   87.79   21 |   87.58   22
  23  Sacramento Kings        =  87.52    7  13   90.66(   8)    3   5  |    4   7  |   87.75   22 |   87.00   23 |   87.00   24
  24  New Orleans Pelicans    =  87.22    7  15   90.03(  13)    1   5  |    5   9  |   87.43   24 |   86.88   25 |   86.77   25
  25  Los Angeles Lakers      =  86.71   10  13   91.53(   3)    3   7  |    4  10  |   86.30   26 |   87.00   24 |   87.50   23
  26  Dallas Mavericks        =  86.28    4  16   92.07(   1)    0   9  |    2  13  |   86.41   25 |   86.26   27 |   85.99   27
  27  Orlando Magic           =  86.27    9  12   89.03(  25)    3   3  |    3   8  |   86.10   27 |   86.58   26 |   86.59   26
  28  Phoenix Suns            =  84.41    6  14   90.52(   9)    1   5  |    2   7  |   84.66   28 |   83.90   28 |   83.82   28
  29  Brooklyn Nets           =  81.71    5  15   89.72(  17)    2   4  |    3  10  |   81.63   29 |   81.68   29 |   81.87   29
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.54    4  17   88.85(  28)    0   7  |    0  11  |   80.59   30 |   80.44   30 |   80.41   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  91.24      91.28  (  2)      5      91.27  (  1)
   2  PACIFIC   (west)        =  90.68      91.37  (  1)      5      91.11  (  2)
   3  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.51      90.68  (  3)      5      90.65  (  3)
   4  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.27      90.52  (  4)      5      90.50  (  4)
   5  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  88.30      88.35  (  5)      5      88.35  (  5)
   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.77      87.80  (  6)      5      87.79  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.77      87.80  (  6)      5      87.79  (  6)
   1  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  91.24      91.28  (  2)      5      91.27  (  1)
   5  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  88.30      88.35  (  5)      5      88.35  (  5)
   3  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.51      90.68  (  3)      5      90.65  (  3)
   4  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.27      90.52  (  4)      5      90.50  (  4)
   2  PACIFIC   (west)        =  90.68      91.37  (  1)      5      91.11  (  2)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.77      87.80  (  6)   TEAMS=  5      87.79  (  6)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   3  Toronto Raptors         =  96.24   14   7   90.32(  10)    3   5  |    6   5  |   96.47    3 |   95.69    4 |   95.78    4
  10  Boston Celtics          =  91.81   12   9   90.02(  14)    1   5  |    4   6  |   91.72   10 |   92.17   10 |   91.99   10
  17  New York Knicks         =  88.70   11   9   89.96(  15)    1   7  |    7   8  |   88.34   20 |   89.30   15 |   89.43   15
  29  Brooklyn Nets           =  81.71    5  15   89.72(  17)    2   4  |    3  10  |   81.63   29 |   81.68   29 |   81.87   29
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.54    4  17   88.85(  28)    0   7  |    0  11  |   80.59   30 |   80.44   30 |   80.41   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  91.24      91.28  (  2)   TEAMS=  5      91.27  (  1)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   5  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  95.13   14   5   89.59(  20)    6   1  |    8   3  |   95.02    5 |   95.53    5 |   95.37    5
   8  Detroit Pistons         =  92.80   11  11   90.81(   6)    3   7  |    5   7  |   92.99    8 |   92.29    8 |   92.40    8
  11  Chicago Bulls           =  91.43   11   9   89.25(  23)    3   2  |    4   3  |   91.73    9 |   90.67   12 |   90.81   12
  15  Milwaukee Bucks         =  89.09   10   9   88.33(  30)    1   4  |    2   5  |   89.13   16 |   88.82   18 |   89.00   16
  21  Indiana Pacers          =  87.96   10  11   89.23(  24)    4   3  |    5   7  |   87.52   23 |   88.94   16 |   88.84   17
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  88.30      88.35  (  5)   TEAMS=  5      88.35  (  5)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  90.79   12   9   89.01(  26)    1   5  |    4   7  |   90.77   12 |   90.75   11 |   90.84   11
  18  Atlanta Hawks           =  88.55   10  12   89.70(  18)    2   5  |    4   6  |   88.49   19 |   88.90   17 |   88.67   18
  20  Miami Heat              =  88.27    7  13   90.85(   5)    1   7  |    3  11  |   88.54   18 |   87.63   22 |   87.66   21
  22  Washington Wizards      =  87.87    7  12   89.48(  21)    1   6  |    1   8  |   87.99   21 |   87.79   21 |   87.58   22
  27  Orlando Magic           =  86.27    9  12   89.03(  25)    3   3  |    3   8  |   86.10   27 |   86.58   26 |   86.59   26
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.51      90.68  (  3)   TEAMS=  5      90.65  (  3)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   4  San Antonio Spurs       =  95.88   17   4   90.76(   7)    5   3  |    7   3  |   95.41    4 |   97.05    2 |   97.18    2
   6  Houston Rockets         =  94.12   14   7   91.91(   2)    5   5  |    7   5  |   94.01    6 |   94.04    6 |   94.36    6
  13  Memphis Grizzlies       =  89.90   14   8   89.28(  22)    2   2  |    5   6  |   89.53   13 |   90.60   13 |   90.68   13
  24  New Orleans Pelicans    =  87.22    7  15   90.03(  13)    1   5  |    5   9  |   87.43   24 |   86.88   25 |   86.77   25
  26  Dallas Mavericks        =  86.28    4  16   92.07(   1)    0   9  |    2  13  |   86.41   25 |   86.26   27 |   85.99   27
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.27      90.52  (  4)   TEAMS=  5      90.50  (  4)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   7  Utah Jazz               =  93.79   13   9   89.90(  16)    2   3  |    3   7  |   93.96    7 |   93.41    7 |   93.45    7
   9  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  91.85   14   8   88.90(  27)    3   4  |    4   4  |   91.65   11 |   92.22    9 |   92.29    9
  14  Portland Trail Blazers  =  89.55   12  10   90.23(  11)    1   6  |    3   7  |   89.24   15 |   90.27   14 |   90.20   14
  16  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  88.86    6  14   89.60(  19)    0   5  |    2   8  |   89.30   14 |   88.20   20 |   87.88   20
  19  Denver Nuggets          =  88.53    8  13   91.23(   4)    2   9  |    4  12  |   88.61   17 |   88.43   19 |   88.37   19
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  PACIFIC   (west)        =  90.68      91.37  (  1)   TEAMS=  5      91.11  (  2)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   1  Golden State Warriors   = 100.73   18   3   88.62(  29)    3   2  |    6   2  |  100.97    1 |  100.54    1 |  100.28    1
   2  Los Angeles Clippers    =  97.48   16   6   90.07(  12)    6   2  |   11   3  |   97.74    2 |   96.99    3 |   96.99    3
  23  Sacramento Kings        =  87.52    7  13   90.66(   8)    3   5  |    4   7  |   87.75   22 |   87.00   23 |   87.00   24
  25  Los Angeles Lakers      =  86.71   10  13   91.53(   3)    3   7  |    4  10  |   86.30   26 |   87.00   24 |   87.50   23
  28  Phoenix Suns            =  84.41    6  14   90.52(   9)    1   5  |    2   7  |   84.66   28 |   83.90   28 |   83.82   28
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== MIAMI HEAT 2.51 3.13 1.26 1.16 new york knicks MIAMI HEAT 103.07 - 99.15 3.92 202.21 new york knicks ~ 3.97 san antonio spur 4.09 3.18 5.92 6.38 MINNESOTA TIMBER san antonio spur 104.70 - 100.51 4.19 205.22 MINNESOTA TIMBER ~ 4.21 DETROIT PISTONS 4.30 4.20 4.55 4.53 chicago bulls DETROIT PISTONS 97.67 - 93.47 4.20 191.14 chicago bulls ~ 4.37 WASHINGTON WIZAR 4.53 4.82 4.15 3.93 orlando magic WASHINGTON WIZAR 100.46 - 95.76 4.70 196.21 orlando magic ~ 4.83 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIE 12.29 11.87 13.10 13.20 philadelphia 76e MEMPHIS GRIZZLIE 104.24 - 91.42 12.82 195.66 philadelphia 76e ~ 13.20 UTAH JAZZ 12.31 12.23 12.45 12.57 phoenix suns UTAH JAZZ 107.81 - 94.22 13.60 202.03 phoenix suns ~ 13.78 ====================================================================================================================================

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