United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2020-2021 ratings through results of 2021 MAY 9 SUNDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
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NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
1 Utah Jazz = 97.53 50 18 89.91( 22) 14 9 | 24 12 | 97.77 1 | 97.47 1 | 95.98 1 northwest
2 Los Angeles Clippers = 95.74 45 23 90.10( 10) 13 11 | 21 17 | 96.06 2 | 95.94 2 | 92.01 12 pacific
3 Milwaukee Bucks = 95.59 43 24 89.83( 29) 11 9 | 18 17 | 95.70 3 | 95.59 3 | 94.58 4 CENTRAL
4 Philadelphia 76ers = 95.27 47 21 89.90( 24) 8 12 | 19 16 | 95.24 4 | 95.29 4 | 95.47 2 ATLANTIC
5 Phoenix Suns = 94.72 48 20 89.91( 21) 16 7 | 26 10 | 94.74 5 | 95.09 5 | 91.50 16 pacific
6 Denver Nuggets = 94.57 44 24 90.04( 13) 12 11 | 21 16 | 94.50 6 | 94.82 6 | 92.85 9 northwest
7 Brooklyn Nets = 94.25 44 24 89.96( 17) 11 9 | 23 13 | 94.30 7 | 94.44 7 | 91.96 13 ATLANTIC
8 Dallas Mavericks = 92.92 40 28 90.07( 12) 11 13 | 22 15 | 92.84 8 | 92.89 9 | 94.50 5 southwest
9 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.76 38 30 90.10( 11) 8 16 | 15 22 | 92.51 9 | 93.25 8 | 90.35 17 pacific
10 Portland Trail Blazers = 91.63 39 29 89.89( 25) 7 14 | 14 21 | 91.21 12 | 91.84 10 | 94.70 3 northwest
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
11 Atlanta Hawks = 91.61 37 31 90.18( 8) 8 15 | 15 21 | 91.52 11 | 91.59 12 | 92.88 8 SOUTHEAST
12 Boston Celtics = 91.59 35 33 90.02( 14) 9 14 | 15 19 | 91.88 10 | 91.65 11 | 87.63 23 ATLANTIC
13 Miami Heat = 90.95 37 31 89.78( 30) 6 15 | 12 21 | 90.73 15 | 91.07 13 | 92.32 10 SOUTHEAST
14 Golden State Warriors = 90.78 35 33 89.96( 16) 9 16 | 12 23 | 90.80 13 | 90.67 14 | 91.85 15 pacific
15 New York Knicks = 90.53 38 30 89.95( 19) 7 15 | 14 20 | 90.74 14 | 90.13 15 | 93.08 7 ATLANTIC
16 Memphis Grizzlies = 90.05 34 33 90.20( 7) 9 17 | 14 22 | 90.23 16 | 90.02 16 | 88.35 22 southwest
17 New Orleans Pelicans = 89.64 31 37 90.01( 15) 9 16 | 14 23 | 89.71 18 | 89.39 19 | 91.91 14 southwest
18 Toronto Raptors = 89.62 27 41 89.87( 27) 8 13 | 12 25 | 90.05 17 | 89.41 18 | 86.72 24 ATLANTIC
19 Indiana Pacers = 89.59 31 36 89.89( 26) 3 17 | 12 24 | 89.58 19 | 89.67 17 | 88.67 21 CENTRAL
20 Chicago Bulls = 88.48 29 39 89.85( 28) 4 16 | 8 28 | 88.60 20 | 88.02 22 | 92.25 11 CENTRAL
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
21 Washington Wizards = 88.45 32 36 90.13( 9) 11 12 | 15 22 | 88.41 21 | 88.06 21 | 93.59 6 SOUTHEAST
22 San Antonio Spurs = 88.34 32 35 89.90( 23) 6 17 | 11 25 | 88.16 22 | 88.46 20 | 89.04 20 southwest
23 Charlotte Hornets = 87.74 33 35 89.92( 20) 6 15 | 13 23 | 87.68 23 | 87.90 23 | 86.45 25 SOUTHEAST
24 Sacramento Kings = 86.94 30 38 90.28( 3) 10 16 | 15 23 | 86.69 24 | 86.90 24 | 89.80 18 pacific
25 Detroit Pistons = 84.99 20 49 90.21( 5) 4 18 | 9 28 | 85.34 25 | 84.51 25 | 85.92 26 CENTRAL
26 Minnesota Timberwolves = 84.98 21 47 90.31( 2) 5 20 | 8 30 | 84.86 26 | 84.50 26 | 89.32 19 northwest
27 Houston Rockets = 83.38 16 52 90.21( 6) 4 20 | 5 32 | 83.35 27 | 83.39 27 | 83.56 27 southwest
28 Orlando Magic = 83.27 21 47 89.95( 18) 3 17 | 7 28 | 83.24 28 | 83.38 28 | 81.92 28 SOUTHEAST
29 Cleveland Cavaliers = 82.59 21 47 90.22( 4) 4 18 | 9 28 | 82.18 29 | 82.99 29 | 81.68 29 CENTRAL
30 Oklahoma City Thunder = 81.47 21 48 90.34( 1) 5 20 | 9 30 | 81.38 30 | 81.65 30 | 79.19 30 northwest
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There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 pacific = 92.44 92.19 ( 2) 5 92.23 ( 2)
2 ATLANTIC = 92.14 92.25 ( 1) 5 92.25 ( 1)
3 northwest = 90.33 90.04 ( 3) 5 90.13 ( 3)
4 southwest = 89.11 88.87 ( 4) 5 88.91 ( 4)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.62 88.40 ( 5) 5 88.44 ( 5)
6 CENTRAL = 88.09 88.25 ( 6) 5 88.18 ( 6)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 ATLANTIC = 92.14 92.25 ( 1) 5 92.25 ( 1)
6 CENTRAL = 88.09 88.25 ( 6) 5 88.18 ( 6)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.62 88.40 ( 5) 5 88.44 ( 5)
4 southwest = 89.11 88.87 ( 4) 5 88.91 ( 4)
3 northwest = 90.33 90.04 ( 3) 5 90.13 ( 3)
1 pacific = 92.44 92.19 ( 2) 5 92.23 ( 2)
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2 ATLANTIC = 92.14 92.25 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 92.25 ( 1)
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
4 Philadelphia 76ers = 95.27 47 21 89.90( 24) 8 12 | 19 16 | 95.24 4 | 95.29 4 | 95.47 2 ATLANTIC
7 Brooklyn Nets = 94.25 44 24 89.96( 17) 11 9 | 23 13 | 94.30 7 | 94.44 7 | 91.96 13 ATLANTIC
12 Boston Celtics = 91.59 35 33 90.02( 14) 9 14 | 15 19 | 91.88 10 | 91.65 11 | 87.63 23 ATLANTIC
15 New York Knicks = 90.53 38 30 89.95( 19) 7 15 | 14 20 | 90.74 14 | 90.13 15 | 93.08 7 ATLANTIC
18 Toronto Raptors = 89.62 27 41 89.87( 27) 8 13 | 12 25 | 90.05 17 | 89.41 18 | 86.72 24 ATLANTIC
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6 CENTRAL = 88.09 88.25 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 88.18 ( 6)
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
3 Milwaukee Bucks = 95.59 43 24 89.83( 29) 11 9 | 18 17 | 95.70 3 | 95.59 3 | 94.58 4 CENTRAL
19 Indiana Pacers = 89.59 31 36 89.89( 26) 3 17 | 12 24 | 89.58 19 | 89.67 17 | 88.67 21 CENTRAL
20 Chicago Bulls = 88.48 29 39 89.85( 28) 4 16 | 8 28 | 88.60 20 | 88.02 22 | 92.25 11 CENTRAL
25 Detroit Pistons = 84.99 20 49 90.21( 5) 4 18 | 9 28 | 85.34 25 | 84.51 25 | 85.92 26 CENTRAL
29 Cleveland Cavaliers = 82.59 21 47 90.22( 4) 4 18 | 9 28 | 82.18 29 | 82.99 29 | 81.68 29 CENTRAL
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5 SOUTHEAST = 88.62 88.40 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 88.44 ( 5)
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
11 Atlanta Hawks = 91.61 37 31 90.18( 8) 8 15 | 15 21 | 91.52 11 | 91.59 12 | 92.88 8 SOUTHEAST
13 Miami Heat = 90.95 37 31 89.78( 30) 6 15 | 12 21 | 90.73 15 | 91.07 13 | 92.32 10 SOUTHEAST
21 Washington Wizards = 88.45 32 36 90.13( 9) 11 12 | 15 22 | 88.41 21 | 88.06 21 | 93.59 6 SOUTHEAST
23 Charlotte Hornets = 87.74 33 35 89.92( 20) 6 15 | 13 23 | 87.68 23 | 87.90 23 | 86.45 25 SOUTHEAST
28 Orlando Magic = 83.27 21 47 89.95( 18) 3 17 | 7 28 | 83.24 28 | 83.38 28 | 81.92 28 SOUTHEAST
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4 southwest = 89.11 88.87 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 88.91 ( 4)
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
8 Dallas Mavericks = 92.92 40 28 90.07( 12) 11 13 | 22 15 | 92.84 8 | 92.89 9 | 94.50 5 southwest
16 Memphis Grizzlies = 90.05 34 33 90.20( 7) 9 17 | 14 22 | 90.23 16 | 90.02 16 | 88.35 22 southwest
17 New Orleans Pelicans = 89.64 31 37 90.01( 15) 9 16 | 14 23 | 89.71 18 | 89.39 19 | 91.91 14 southwest
22 San Antonio Spurs = 88.34 32 35 89.90( 23) 6 17 | 11 25 | 88.16 22 | 88.46 20 | 89.04 20 southwest
27 Houston Rockets = 83.38 16 52 90.21( 6) 4 20 | 5 32 | 83.35 27 | 83.39 27 | 83.56 27 southwest
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3 northwest = 90.33 90.04 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 90.13 ( 3)
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
1 Utah Jazz = 97.53 50 18 89.91( 22) 14 9 | 24 12 | 97.77 1 | 97.47 1 | 95.98 1 northwest
6 Denver Nuggets = 94.57 44 24 90.04( 13) 12 11 | 21 16 | 94.50 6 | 94.82 6 | 92.85 9 northwest
10 Portland Trail Blazers = 91.63 39 29 89.89( 25) 7 14 | 14 21 | 91.21 12 | 91.84 10 | 94.70 3 northwest
26 Minnesota Timberwolves = 84.98 21 47 90.31( 2) 5 20 | 8 30 | 84.86 26 | 84.50 26 | 89.32 19 northwest
30 Oklahoma City Thunder = 81.47 21 48 90.34( 1) 5 20 | 9 30 | 81.38 30 | 81.65 30 | 79.19 30 northwest
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1 pacific = 92.44 92.19 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 92.23 ( 2)
NBA 2020-2021 through games of 2021 May 9 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.78] [ 0.75] [ 0.83] [ 0.75]
2 Los Angeles Clippers = 95.74 45 23 90.10( 10) 13 11 | 21 17 | 96.06 2 | 95.94 2 | 92.01 12 pacific
5 Phoenix Suns = 94.72 48 20 89.91( 21) 16 7 | 26 10 | 94.74 5 | 95.09 5 | 91.50 16 pacific
9 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.76 38 30 90.10( 11) 8 16 | 15 22 | 92.51 9 | 93.25 8 | 90.35 17 pacific
14 Golden State Warriors = 90.78 35 33 89.96( 16) 9 16 | 12 23 | 90.80 13 | 90.67 14 | 91.85 15 pacific
24 Sacramento Kings = 86.94 30 38 90.28( 3) 10 16 | 15 23 | 86.69 24 | 86.90 24 | 89.80 18 pacific
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endfile
Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== indiana pacers 6.22 6.65 5.85 6.24 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 218 69% 220.48 ATLANTA HAWKS 3.94 3.86 4.36 0.04 washington wizards 165 62% 235.99 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 1.20 1.27 1.45 -2.81 new orleans pelicans 117 54% 230.82 milwaukee bucks 6.47 6.78 6.30 4.79 SAN ANTONIO SPURS 225 69% 231.19 utah jazz 5.97 6.23 5.97 3.38 GOLDEN STATE WARRIOR 212 68% 224.90 PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZE 9.03 8.61 9.28 11.89 houston rockets 303 75% 228.75 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Indiana Pacers 4.62 180 64% @ Cleveland Cavaliers 2 @ Atlanta Hawks 4.29 172 63% Washington Wizards 3 @ Memphis Grizzlies 1.66 124 55% New Orleans Pelicans 4 Milwaukee Bucks 5.65 204 67% @ San Antonio Spurs 5 Utah Jazz 8.07 271 73% @ Golden State Warrior 6 @ Portland Trail Blaze 11.15 384 79% Houston Rockets endfileTop_of_Page