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Jeff Sagarin'stm NBA Ratings


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All Contents Copyright © 2016 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


Final NBA 2015-2016 ratings through results of 2016 JUNE 19 SUNDAY - NBA Finals


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   1  Golden State Warriors   =  99.13   88  18   90.71(   3)   28   9  |   51  13  |   99.52    2 |   99.72    2 |   97.60    3
   2  San Antonio Spurs       =  98.61   73  19   90.10(  22)   16  13  |   30  16  |  100.09    1 |   99.83    1 |   95.86    4
   3  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  97.44   66  34   90.91(   1)   17  19  |   30  24  |   97.74    3 |   97.12    3 |   97.80    2
   4  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  97.35   73  30   90.47(   7)   27  14  |   40  23  |   96.88    4 |   96.88    4 |  101.06    1
   5  Los Angeles Clippers    =  93.55   55  33   89.96(  29)    7  16  |   22  24  |   94.21    5 |   93.78    5 |   92.00   11
   6  Toronto Raptors         =  93.38   66  36   90.39(   9)   28  19  |   39  24  |   93.00    7 |   93.65    6 |   93.20    6
   7  Atlanta Hawks           =  92.90   52  40   90.36(  10)   13  24  |   26  29  |   93.39    6 |   92.91    7 |   92.02   10
   8  Miami Heat              =  92.32   55  41   90.25(  14)   12  21  |   25  33  |   92.01    9 |   92.19    9 |   93.08    7
   9  Boston Celtics          =  91.96   50  38   89.89(  30)   12  20  |   23  26  |   92.27    8 |   92.24    8 |   90.66   14
  10  Indiana Pacers          =  91.83   48  41   90.25(  15)   15  20  |   21  30  |   91.68   11 |   91.64   10 |   92.48    8
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
  11  Portland Trail Blazers  =  91.75   49  44   90.79(   2)   14  24  |   22  30  |   90.76   13 |   91.32   12 |   95.01    5
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  91.50   51  38   89.98(  28)   13  23  |   20  29  |   91.20   12 |   91.57   11 |   91.68   12
  13  Utah Jazz               =  91.22   40  42   90.03(  25)    8  19  |   13  28  |   91.78   10 |   91.12   13 |   90.51   15
  14  Houston Rockets         =  90.43   42  45   90.64(   5)   12  20  |   18  28  |   90.41   14 |   90.06   15 |   91.29   13
  15  Washington Wizards      =  90.30   41  41   89.99(  27)    8  23  |   15  30  |   89.73   16 |   89.90   17 |   92.23    9
  16  Detroit Pistons         =  90.04   44  42   90.25(  16)   12  23  |   20  28  |   90.06   15 |   90.25   14 |   89.31   17
  17  Dallas Mavericks        =  89.78   43  44   90.67(   4)    5  28  |   14  35  |   89.36   17 |   89.92   16 |   89.99   16
  18  Chicago Bulls           =  88.99   42  40   90.04(  24)   15  16  |   22  26  |   89.00   18 |   89.23   18 |   88.19   20
  19  Orlando Magic           =  88.34   35  47   90.00(  26)    7  24  |   12  36  |   88.19   19 |   88.24   20 |   88.73   18
  20  Memphis Grizzlies       =  88.07   42  44   90.47(   8)    7  23  |   15  32  |   88.01   20 |   88.80   19 |   85.82   24
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
  21  Sacramento Kings        =  87.64   33  49   90.16(  20)    8  19  |   13  31  |   87.68   21 |   87.47   21 |   87.90   21
  22  Denver Nuggets          =  87.00   33  49   90.26(  13)    6  21  |   16  28  |   86.89   24 |   87.09   22 |   86.82   23
  23  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  86.83   29  53   90.14(  21)    8  18  |   11  32  |   86.42   26 |   86.22   26 |   88.69   19
  24  New York Knicks         =  86.81   32  50   90.06(  23)    6  25  |   13  34  |   86.99   23 |   87.04   23 |   85.74   25
  25  Milwaukee Bucks         =  86.46   33  49   90.22(  17)    8  22  |   13  35  |   86.55   25 |   86.77   24 |   85.25   26
  26  New Orleans Pelicans    =  86.34   30  52   90.20(  19)    4  22  |   12  32  |   87.04   22 |   86.65   25 |   83.60   27
  27  Phoenix Suns            =  85.03   23  59   90.21(  18)    4  23  |    8  35  |   84.21   27 |   84.23   27 |   87.43   22
  28  Brooklyn Nets           =  82.79   21  61   90.27(  12)    7  24  |   11  37  |   83.03   28 |   82.81   28 |   82.12   29
  29  Los Angeles Lakers      =  82.12   17  65   90.54(   6)    3  25  |    6  39  |   81.58   29 |   81.62   29 |   83.58   28
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.08   10  72   90.30(  11)    0  29  |    1  46  |   80.32   30 |   79.75   30 |   80.35   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  91.22      91.07  (  1)      5      91.08  (  1)
   2  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  90.62      90.93  (  2)      5      90.85  (  2)
   3  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.61      90.85  (  3)      5      90.77  (  3)
   4  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.14      90.65  (  4)      5      90.46  (  4)
   5  PACIFIC   (west)        =  89.04      89.49  (  5)      5      89.30  (  5)
   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.04      87.00  (  6)      5      87.01  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.04      87.00  (  6)      5      87.01  (  6)
   2  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  90.62      90.93  (  2)      5      90.85  (  2)
   1  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  91.22      91.07  (  1)      5      91.08  (  1)
   4  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.14      90.65  (  4)      5      90.46  (  4)
   3  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.61      90.85  (  3)      5      90.77  (  3)
   5  PACIFIC   (west)        =  89.04      89.49  (  5)      5      89.30  (  5)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.04      87.00  (  6)   TEAMS=  5      87.01  (  6)
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   6  Toronto Raptors         =  93.38   66  36   90.39(   9)   28  19  |   39  24  |   93.00    7 |   93.65    6 |   93.20    6
   9  Boston Celtics          =  91.96   50  38   89.89(  30)   12  20  |   23  26  |   92.27    8 |   92.24    8 |   90.66   14
  24  New York Knicks         =  86.81   32  50   90.06(  23)    6  25  |   13  34  |   86.99   23 |   87.04   23 |   85.74   25
  28  Brooklyn Nets           =  82.79   21  61   90.27(  12)    7  24  |   11  37  |   83.03   28 |   82.81   28 |   82.12   29
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.08   10  72   90.30(  11)    0  29  |    1  46  |   80.32   30 |   79.75   30 |   80.35   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  90.62      90.93  (  2)   TEAMS=  5      90.85  (  2)
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   4  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  97.35   73  30   90.47(   7)   27  14  |   40  23  |   96.88    4 |   96.88    4 |  101.06    1
  10  Indiana Pacers          =  91.83   48  41   90.25(  15)   15  20  |   21  30  |   91.68   11 |   91.64   10 |   92.48    8
  16  Detroit Pistons         =  90.04   44  42   90.25(  16)   12  23  |   20  28  |   90.06   15 |   90.25   14 |   89.31   17
  18  Chicago Bulls           =  88.99   42  40   90.04(  24)   15  16  |   22  26  |   89.00   18 |   89.23   18 |   88.19   20
  25  Milwaukee Bucks         =  86.46   33  49   90.22(  17)    8  22  |   13  35  |   86.55   25 |   86.77   24 |   85.25   26
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  91.22      91.07  (  1)   TEAMS=  5      91.08  (  1)
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   7  Atlanta Hawks           =  92.90   52  40   90.36(  10)   13  24  |   26  29  |   93.39    6 |   92.91    7 |   92.02   10
   8  Miami Heat              =  92.32   55  41   90.25(  14)   12  21  |   25  33  |   92.01    9 |   92.19    9 |   93.08    7
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  91.50   51  38   89.98(  28)   13  23  |   20  29  |   91.20   12 |   91.57   11 |   91.68   12
  15  Washington Wizards      =  90.30   41  41   89.99(  27)    8  23  |   15  30  |   89.73   16 |   89.90   17 |   92.23    9
  19  Orlando Magic           =  88.34   35  47   90.00(  26)    7  24  |   12  36  |   88.19   19 |   88.24   20 |   88.73   18
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.14      90.65  (  4)   TEAMS=  5      90.46  (  4)
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   2  San Antonio Spurs       =  98.61   73  19   90.10(  22)   16  13  |   30  16  |  100.09    1 |   99.83    1 |   95.86    4
  14  Houston Rockets         =  90.43   42  45   90.64(   5)   12  20  |   18  28  |   90.41   14 |   90.06   15 |   91.29   13
  17  Dallas Mavericks        =  89.78   43  44   90.67(   4)    5  28  |   14  35  |   89.36   17 |   89.92   16 |   89.99   16
  20  Memphis Grizzlies       =  88.07   42  44   90.47(   8)    7  23  |   15  32  |   88.01   20 |   88.80   19 |   85.82   24
  26  New Orleans Pelicans    =  86.34   30  52   90.20(  19)    4  22  |   12  32  |   87.04   22 |   86.65   25 |   83.60   27
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.61      90.85  (  3)   TEAMS=  5      90.77  (  3)
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   3  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  97.44   66  34   90.91(   1)   17  19  |   30  24  |   97.74    3 |   97.12    3 |   97.80    2
  11  Portland Trail Blazers  =  91.75   49  44   90.79(   2)   14  24  |   22  30  |   90.76   13 |   91.32   12 |   95.01    5
  13  Utah Jazz               =  91.22   40  42   90.03(  25)    8  19  |   13  28  |   91.78   10 |   91.12   13 |   90.51   15
  22  Denver Nuggets          =  87.00   33  49   90.26(  13)    6  21  |   16  28  |   86.89   24 |   87.09   22 |   86.82   23
  23  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  86.83   29  53   90.14(  21)    8  18  |   11  32  |   86.42   26 |   86.22   26 |   88.69   19
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  PACIFIC   (west)        =  89.04      89.49  (  5)   TEAMS=  5      89.30  (  5)
Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.10]                                               [  3.01]       [  3.14]       [  3.14]
   1  Golden State Warriors   =  99.13   88  18   90.71(   3)   28   9  |   51  13  |   99.52    2 |   99.72    2 |   97.60    3
   5  Los Angeles Clippers    =  93.55   55  33   89.96(  29)    7  16  |   22  24  |   94.21    5 |   93.78    5 |   92.00   11
  21  Sacramento Kings        =  87.64   33  49   90.16(  20)    8  19  |   13  31  |   87.68   21 |   87.47   21 |   87.90   21
  27  Phoenix Suns            =  85.03   23  59   90.21(  18)    4  23  |    8  35  |   84.21   27 |   84.23   27 |   87.43   22
  29  Los Angeles Lakers      =  82.12   17  65   90.54(   6)    3  25  |    6  39  |   81.58   29 |   81.62   29 |   83.58   28
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.00735 closeby=1.00367 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=103.49 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home San Antonio Spurs 105.10 100.97 4.13 206.07 away Golden State Warriors away San Antonio Spurs 102.07 103.99 -1.92 206.06 home Golden State Warriors neutral San Antonio Spurs 103.58 102.47 1.11 206.05 neutral Golden State Warriors ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 1 San Antonio Spurs 1.05390 14.38 13.64 ( 22) 73 - 19 19 - 12 30 - 16 100.80 San Antonio Spurs 1 2 Golden State Warriors 1.04859 15.10 14.40 ( 5) 88 - 18 30 - 9 51 - 13 99.76 Golden State Warriors 2 3 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.03939 14.87 14.30 ( 1) 66 - 34 20 - 18 30 - 24 97.94 Oklahoma City Thunder 3 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.03508 14.49 14.00 ( 8) 73 - 30 25 - 14 40 - 23 97.09 Cleveland Cavaliers 4 5 Los Angeles Clippers 1.02007 14.41 14.13 ( 28) 55 - 33 8 - 16 22 - 24 94.09 Los Angeles Clippers 5 6 Atlanta Hawks 1.01708 14.37 14.13 ( 9) 52 - 40 12 - 23 26 - 29 93.48 Atlanta Hawks 6 7 Toronto Raptors 1.01564 14.28 14.06 ( 10) 66 - 36 22 - 16 39 - 24 93.19 Toronto Raptors 7 8 Boston Celtics 1.01196 14.53 14.36 ( 30) 50 - 38 12 - 18 23 - 26 92.44 Boston Celtics 8 9 Miami Heat 1.01006 14.17 14.03 ( 18) 55 - 41 11 - 20 25 - 33 92.06 Miami Heat 9 10 Utah Jazz 1.01004 13.98 13.84 ( 23) 40 - 42 6 - 19 13 - 28 92.05 Utah Jazz 10 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 11 Indiana Pacers 1.00969 14.31 14.17 ( 16) 48 - 41 15 - 22 21 - 30 91.98 Indiana Pacers 11 12 Charlotte Hornets 1.00805 14.36 14.24 ( 29) 51 - 38 11 - 24 20 - 29 91.65 Charlotte Hornets 12 13 Portland Trail Blazers 1.00693 14.53 14.43 ( 2) 49 - 44 15 - 25 22 - 30 91.42 Portland Trail Blazers 13 14 Detroit Pistons 1.00126 14.30 14.28 ( 19) 44 - 42 13 - 20 20 - 28 90.26 Detroit Pistons 14 15 Houston Rockets 0.99914 14.57 14.58 ( 4) 42 - 45 13 - 21 18 - 28 89.82 Houston Rockets 15 16 Washington Wizards 0.99781 14.48 14.51 ( 26) 41 - 41 8 - 22 15 - 30 89.55 Washington Wizards 16 17 Dallas Mavericks 0.99757 14.28 14.32 ( 3) 43 - 44 7 - 27 14 - 35 89.50 Dallas Mavericks 17 18 Chicago Bulls 0.99329 14.31 14.41 ( 24) 42 - 40 13 - 16 22 - 26 88.61 Chicago Bulls 18 19 Orlando Magic 0.99180 14.32 14.44 ( 27) 35 - 47 8 - 21 12 - 36 88.31 Orlando Magic 19 20 Sacramento Kings 0.98887 14.62 14.79 ( 21) 33 - 49 8 - 20 13 - 31 87.70 Sacramento Kings 20 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 21 Memphis Grizzlies 0.98720 14.06 14.24 ( 7) 42 - 44 6 - 25 15 - 32 87.35 Memphis Grizzlies 21 22 New York Knicks 0.98617 14.06 14.26 ( 25) 32 - 50 7 - 23 13 - 34 87.14 New York Knicks 22 23 Denver Nuggets 0.98616 14.30 14.50 ( 13) 33 - 49 5 - 24 16 - 28 87.13 Denver Nuggets 23 24 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.98353 14.33 14.57 ( 20) 29 - 53 9 - 19 11 - 32 86.58 Minnesota Timberwolves 24 25 New Orleans Pelicans 0.98273 14.37 14.62 ( 15) 30 - 52 6 - 22 12 - 32 86.42 New Orleans Pelicans 25 26 Milwaukee Bucks 0.98086 14.12 14.40 ( 17) 33 - 49 7 - 21 13 - 35 86.03 Milwaukee Bucks 26 27 Phoenix Suns 0.96988 14.24 14.68 ( 11) 23 - 59 4 - 25 8 - 35 83.71 Phoenix Suns 27 28 Brooklyn Nets 0.96561 14.10 14.60 ( 14) 21 - 61 7 - 22 11 - 37 82.80 Brooklyn Nets 28 29 Los Angeles Lakers 0.95737 13.99 14.61 ( 6) 17 - 65 4 - 26 6 - 39 81.04 Los Angeles Lakers 29 30 Philadelphia 76ers 0.95296 14.01 14.70 ( 12) 10 - 72 0 - 28 1 - 46 80.09 Philadelphia 76ers 30

Divisional Rankings

DIVISION GEOMETRIC MEAN 1 NORTHWEST (west) = 1.00501 ( 5) 91.02737( 4.58111) 2 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 1.00492 ( 5) 91.00916( 2.06501) 3 CENTRAL (EAST) = 1.00387 ( 5) 90.79416( 4.14774) 4 SOUTHWEST (west) = 1.00379 ( 5) 90.77751( 5.78088) 5 PACIFIC (west) = 0.99640 ( 5) 89.25840( 7.65276) 6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.98616 ( 5) 87.13341( 5.77105) DIVISION GEOMETRIC MEAN 6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.98616 ( 5) 87.13341( 5.77105) 3 CENTRAL (EAST) = 1.00387 ( 5) 90.79416( 4.14774) 2 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 1.00492 ( 5) 91.00916( 2.06501) 4 SOUTHWEST (west) = 1.00379 ( 5) 90.77751( 5.78088) 1 NORTHWEST (west) = 1.00501 ( 5) 91.02737( 4.58111) 5 PACIFIC (west) = 0.99640 ( 5) 89.25840( 7.65276) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.00735 closeby=1.00367 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=103.49 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home Toronto Raptors 103.08 99.31 3.77 202.39 away Boston Celtics away Toronto Raptors 100.08 102.30 -2.22 202.38 home Boston Celtics neutral Toronto Raptors 101.57 100.80 0.77 202.37 neutral Boston Celtics ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.98616 87.13341 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 7 Toronto Raptors 1.01564 14.28 14.06 ( 10) 66 - 36 22 - 16 39 - 24 93.19 Toronto Raptors 7 8 Boston Celtics 1.01196 14.53 14.36 ( 30) 50 - 38 12 - 18 23 - 26 92.44 Boston Celtics 8 22 New York Knicks 0.98617 14.06 14.26 ( 25) 32 - 50 7 - 23 13 - 34 87.14 New York Knicks 22 28 Brooklyn Nets 0.96561 14.10 14.60 ( 14) 21 - 61 7 - 22 11 - 37 82.80 Brooklyn Nets 28 30 Philadelphia 76ers 0.95296 14.01 14.70 ( 12) 10 - 72 0 - 28 1 - 46 80.09 Philadelphia 76ers 30 3 CENTRAL (EAST) = 1.00387 90.79416 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.03508 14.49 14.00 ( 8) 73 - 30 25 - 14 40 - 23 97.09 Cleveland Cavaliers 4 11 Indiana Pacers 1.00969 14.31 14.17 ( 16) 48 - 41 15 - 22 21 - 30 91.98 Indiana Pacers 11 14 Detroit Pistons 1.00126 14.30 14.28 ( 19) 44 - 42 13 - 20 20 - 28 90.26 Detroit Pistons 14 18 Chicago Bulls 0.99329 14.31 14.41 ( 24) 42 - 40 13 - 16 22 - 26 88.61 Chicago Bulls 18 26 Milwaukee Bucks 0.98086 14.12 14.40 ( 17) 33 - 49 7 - 21 13 - 35 86.03 Milwaukee Bucks 26 2 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 1.00492 91.00916 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 6 Atlanta Hawks 1.01708 14.37 14.13 ( 9) 52 - 40 12 - 23 26 - 29 93.48 Atlanta Hawks 6 9 Miami Heat 1.01006 14.17 14.03 ( 18) 55 - 41 11 - 20 25 - 33 92.06 Miami Heat 9 12 Charlotte Hornets 1.00805 14.36 14.24 ( 29) 51 - 38 11 - 24 20 - 29 91.65 Charlotte Hornets 12 16 Washington Wizards 0.99781 14.48 14.51 ( 26) 41 - 41 8 - 22 15 - 30 89.55 Washington Wizards 16 19 Orlando Magic 0.99180 14.32 14.44 ( 27) 35 - 47 8 - 21 12 - 36 88.31 Orlando Magic 19 4 SOUTHWEST (west) = 1.00379 90.77751 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 1 San Antonio Spurs 1.05390 14.38 13.64 ( 22) 73 - 19 19 - 12 30 - 16 100.80 San Antonio Spurs 1 15 Houston Rockets 0.99914 14.57 14.58 ( 4) 42 - 45 13 - 21 18 - 28 89.82 Houston Rockets 15 17 Dallas Mavericks 0.99757 14.28 14.32 ( 3) 43 - 44 7 - 27 14 - 35 89.50 Dallas Mavericks 17 21 Memphis Grizzlies 0.98720 14.06 14.24 ( 7) 42 - 44 6 - 25 15 - 32 87.35 Memphis Grizzlies 21 25 New Orleans Pelicans 0.98273 14.37 14.62 ( 15) 30 - 52 6 - 22 12 - 32 86.42 New Orleans Pelicans 25 1 NORTHWEST (west) = 1.00501 91.02737 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 3 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.03939 14.87 14.30 ( 1) 66 - 34 20 - 18 30 - 24 97.94 Oklahoma City Thunder 3 10 Utah Jazz 1.01004 13.98 13.84 ( 23) 40 - 42 6 - 19 13 - 28 92.05 Utah Jazz 10 13 Portland Trail Blazers 1.00693 14.53 14.43 ( 2) 49 - 44 15 - 25 22 - 30 91.42 Portland Trail Blazers 13 23 Denver Nuggets 0.98616 14.30 14.50 ( 13) 33 - 49 5 - 24 16 - 28 87.13 Denver Nuggets 23 24 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.98353 14.33 14.57 ( 20) 29 - 53 9 - 19 11 - 32 86.58 Minnesota Timberwolves 24 5 PACIFIC (west) = 0.99640 89.25840 Final NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 June 19 Sunday - NBA Finals HOME multiplier= 1.00735 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00367 (14.33925) SUBTRACT=103.49 average home edge= 3.01 2 Golden State Warriors 1.04859 15.10 14.40 ( 5) 88 - 18 30 - 9 51 - 13 99.76 Golden State Warriors 2 5 Los Angeles Clippers 1.02007 14.41 14.13 ( 28) 55 - 33 8 - 16 22 - 24 94.09 Los Angeles Clippers 5 20 Sacramento Kings 0.98887 14.62 14.79 ( 21) 33 - 49 8 - 20 13 - 31 87.70 Sacramento Kings 20 27 Phoenix Suns 0.96988 14.24 14.68 ( 11) 23 - 59 4 - 25 8 - 35 83.71 Phoenix Suns 27 29 Los Angeles Lakers 0.95737 13.99 14.61 ( 6) 17 - 65 4 - 26 6 - 39 81.04 Los Angeles Lakers 29

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