United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2025-2026 ratings through results of 2026 MARCH 8 SUNDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51]
1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 98.81 50 15 89.76( 26) 9 10 | 19 11 | 99.70 1 | 100.59 1 | 97.11 3 | 96.30 5 northwest
2 San Antonio Spurs = 97.61 47 18 90.31( 6) 13 9 | 24 10 | 97.15 2 | 97.09 2 | 98.74 1 | 100.68 1 southwest
3 New York Knicks = 96.74 42 24 90.16( 14) 12 10 | 23 14 | 96.83 3 | 95.93 4 | 97.57 2 | 97.94 4 ATLANTIC
4 Detroit Pistons = 95.97 45 18 89.77( 25) 13 8 | 22 11 | 95.92 4 | 96.13 3 | 95.79 6 | 95.86 7 CENTRAL
5 Boston Celtics = 95.89 43 21 89.31( 30) 9 9 | 19 13 | 95.91 5 | 95.14 6 | 96.69 4 | 98.79 2 ATLANTIC
6 Cleveland Cavaliers = 95.10 39 25 90.14( 15) 10 14 | 18 18 | 95.18 6 | 95.25 5 | 94.83 7 | 94.95 8 CENTRAL
7 Houston Rockets = 93.33 39 24 89.79( 24) 8 10 | 16 14 | 93.58 7 | 94.59 7 | 91.96 13 | 90.93 15 southwest
8 Charlotte Hornets = 93.09 32 33 89.72( 28) 5 13 | 14 21 | 93.25 9 | 90.63 17 | 96.16 5 | 98.01 3 SOUTHEAST
9 Miami Heat = 93.05 36 29 90.20( 12) 10 11 | 15 20 | 92.95 11 | 91.77 12 | 94.58 8 | 95.99 6 SOUTHEAST
10 Minnesota Timberwolves = 92.99 40 24 89.35( 29) 10 5 | 16 13 | 93.38 8 | 93.62 9 | 91.99 10 | 92.25 11 northwest
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51]
11 Denver Nuggets = 92.87 39 25 89.73( 27) 9 13 | 15 17 | 93.04 10 | 94.03 8 | 91.64 15 | 90.49 16 northwest
12 Orlando Magic = 92.14 35 28 90.16( 13) 10 15 | 15 19 | 92.11 12 | 92.28 10 | 91.96 12 | 91.28 14 SOUTHEAST
13 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.94 31 32 90.29( 9) 7 14 | 12 21 | 92.04 13 | 91.33 14 | 92.43 9 | 93.40 9 pacific
14 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.84 39 25 89.84( 23) 6 12 | 12 17 | 91.58 14 | 92.11 11 | 91.77 14 | 92.25 12 pacific
15 Toronto Raptors = 91.60 36 27 89.96( 21) 8 16 | 13 21 | 91.50 15 | 91.29 15 | 91.97 11 | 92.39 10 ATLANTIC
16 Atlanta Hawks = 91.30 33 31 90.10( 17) 6 17 | 11 24 | 91.23 17 | 91.15 16 | 91.47 16 | 92.07 13 SOUTHEAST
17 Golden State Warriors = 91.14 32 31 90.39( 5) 9 11 | 14 20 | 91.50 16 | 91.58 13 | 90.31 17 | 89.61 18 pacific
18 Phoenix Suns = 90.06 37 27 90.29( 8) 10 12 | 16 19 | 89.89 18 | 90.51 18 | 89.71 18 | 89.75 17 pacific
19 Philadelphia 76ers = 89.30 34 29 90.12( 16) 8 13 | 14 23 | 89.09 19 | 90.26 19 | 88.47 19 | 88.38 21 ATLANTIC
20 Portland Trail Blazers = 87.96 31 34 90.82( 1) 7 17 | 11 26 | 87.66 20 | 88.40 20 | 87.74 21 | 88.71 20 northwest
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51]
21 Memphis Grizzlies = 87.32 23 39 89.89( 22) 3 16 | 7 25 | 87.62 21 | 87.21 21 | 87.06 22 | 86.08 22 southwest
22 New Orleans Pelicans = 86.63 21 45 89.97( 20) 4 16 | 4 28 | 86.44 22 | 84.98 25 | 88.13 20 | 89.40 19 southwest
23 Milwaukee Bucks = 85.66 27 36 90.22( 11) 9 15 | 13 24 | 85.61 23 | 86.96 22 | 84.01 25 | 82.86 25 CENTRAL
24 Dallas Mavericks = 85.18 21 43 89.99( 19) 5 18 | 9 25 | 85.45 24 | 85.56 23 | 84.39 24 | 82.75 26 southwest
25 Chicago Bulls = 85.16 26 38 90.26( 10) 8 18 | 15 23 | 85.15 25 | 85.56 24 | 84.67 23 | 83.82 24 CENTRAL
26 Utah Jazz = 82.57 19 45 90.40( 4) 7 15 | 8 27 | 81.98 27 | 81.60 28 | 83.72 26 | 84.09 23 northwest
27 Indiana Pacers = 82.05 15 49 90.30( 7) 6 17 | 7 29 | 82.44 26 | 82.07 26 | 81.53 28 | 79.37 29 CENTRAL
28 Sacramento Kings = 81.64 15 50 90.71( 3) 5 18 | 7 29 | 81.58 28 | 81.86 27 | 81.42 29 | 80.37 28 pacific
29 Brooklyn Nets = 81.34 16 47 90.78( 2) 4 21 | 6 32 | 80.86 29 | 81.04 29 | 81.95 27 | 81.63 27 ATLANTIC
30 Washington Wizards = 79.74 16 47 90.05( 18) 1 20 | 4 32 | 79.40 30 | 79.48 30 | 80.22 30 | 79.20 30 SOUTHEAST
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 ATLANTIC = 91.47 90.98 ( 2) 5 91.16 ( 1) 90.9751( 6.1955) 90.8371( 6.4152) 90.7330( 5.9344) 91.3312( 6.4096) 2 northwest = 91.32 91.04 ( 1) 5 91.09 ( 2) 91.0400( 6.1001) 91.1525( 6.6695) 91.6490( 7.0867) 90.4412( 5.0201) 3 SOUTHEAST = 90.88 89.86 ( 4) 5 90.17 ( 3) 89.8618( 5.7056) 89.7864( 5.8612) 89.0615( 5.3933) 90.8757( 6.2601) 4 pacific = 90.09 89.32 ( 5) 5 89.47 ( 5) 89.3243( 4.3595) 89.3153( 4.4006) 89.4766( 4.2987) 89.1298( 4.4445) 5 southwest = 89.41 90.01 ( 3) 5 89.90 ( 4) 90.0117( 5.2605) 90.0477( 5.0748) 89.8852( 5.5649) 90.0557( 5.5638) 6 CENTRAL = 88.39 88.79 ( 6) 5 88.69 ( 6) 88.7870( 6.3193) 88.8610( 6.2321) 89.1947( 6.1998) 88.1666( 6.6334) OVERALL 90.0000( 5.2488) 90.0000( 5.3660) 90.0000( 5.3660) 90.0000( 5.3660) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 ATLANTIC = 91.47 90.98 ( 2) 5 91.16 ( 1) 90.9751( 6.1955) 90.8371( 6.4152) 90.7330( 5.9344) 91.3312( 6.4096) 6 CENTRAL = 88.39 88.79 ( 6) 5 88.69 ( 6) 88.7870( 6.3193) 88.8610( 6.2321) 89.1947( 6.1998) 88.1666( 6.6334) 3 SOUTHEAST = 90.88 89.86 ( 4) 5 90.17 ( 3) 89.8618( 5.7056) 89.7864( 5.8612) 89.0615( 5.3933) 90.8757( 6.2601) 5 southwest = 89.41 90.01 ( 3) 5 89.90 ( 4) 90.0117( 5.2605) 90.0477( 5.0748) 89.8852( 5.5649) 90.0557( 5.5638) 2 northwest = 91.32 91.04 ( 1) 5 91.09 ( 2) 91.0400( 6.1001) 91.1525( 6.6695) 91.6490( 7.0867) 90.4412( 5.0201) 4 pacific = 90.09 89.32 ( 5) 5 89.47 ( 5) 89.3243( 4.3595) 89.3153( 4.4006) 89.4766( 4.2987) 89.1298( 4.4445) OVERALL 90.0000( 5.2488) 90.0000( 5.3660) 90.0000( 5.3660) 90.0000( 5.3660) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 91.47 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51] 3 New York Knicks = 96.74 42 24 90.16( 14) 12 10 | 23 14 | 96.83 3 | 95.93 4 | 97.57 2 | 97.94 4 ATLANTIC 5 Boston Celtics = 95.89 43 21 89.31( 30) 9 9 | 19 13 | 95.91 5 | 95.14 6 | 96.69 4 | 98.79 2 ATLANTIC 15 Toronto Raptors = 91.60 36 27 89.96( 21) 8 16 | 13 21 | 91.50 15 | 91.29 15 | 91.97 11 | 92.39 10 ATLANTIC 19 Philadelphia 76ers = 89.30 34 29 90.12( 16) 8 13 | 14 23 | 89.09 19 | 90.26 19 | 88.47 19 | 88.38 21 ATLANTIC 29 Brooklyn Nets = 81.34 16 47 90.78( 2) 4 21 | 6 32 | 80.86 29 | 81.04 29 | 81.95 27 | 81.63 27 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 CENTRAL = 88.39 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51] 4 Detroit Pistons = 95.97 45 18 89.77( 25) 13 8 | 22 11 | 95.92 4 | 96.13 3 | 95.79 6 | 95.86 7 CENTRAL 6 Cleveland Cavaliers = 95.10 39 25 90.14( 15) 10 14 | 18 18 | 95.18 6 | 95.25 5 | 94.83 7 | 94.95 8 CENTRAL 23 Milwaukee Bucks = 85.66 27 36 90.22( 11) 9 15 | 13 24 | 85.61 23 | 86.96 22 | 84.01 25 | 82.86 25 CENTRAL 25 Chicago Bulls = 85.16 26 38 90.26( 10) 8 18 | 15 23 | 85.15 25 | 85.56 24 | 84.67 23 | 83.82 24 CENTRAL 27 Indiana Pacers = 82.05 15 49 90.30( 7) 6 17 | 7 29 | 82.44 26 | 82.07 26 | 81.53 28 | 79.37 29 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 SOUTHEAST = 90.88 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51] 8 Charlotte Hornets = 93.09 32 33 89.72( 28) 5 13 | 14 21 | 93.25 9 | 90.63 17 | 96.16 5 | 98.01 3 SOUTHEAST 9 Miami Heat = 93.05 36 29 90.20( 12) 10 11 | 15 20 | 92.95 11 | 91.77 12 | 94.58 8 | 95.99 6 SOUTHEAST 12 Orlando Magic = 92.14 35 28 90.16( 13) 10 15 | 15 19 | 92.11 12 | 92.28 10 | 91.96 12 | 91.28 14 SOUTHEAST 16 Atlanta Hawks = 91.30 33 31 90.10( 17) 6 17 | 11 24 | 91.23 17 | 91.15 16 | 91.47 16 | 92.07 13 SOUTHEAST 30 Washington Wizards = 79.74 16 47 90.05( 18) 1 20 | 4 32 | 79.40 30 | 79.48 30 | 80.22 30 | 79.20 30 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 southwest = 89.41 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51] 2 San Antonio Spurs = 97.61 47 18 90.31( 6) 13 9 | 24 10 | 97.15 2 | 97.09 2 | 98.74 1 | 100.68 1 southwest 7 Houston Rockets = 93.33 39 24 89.79( 24) 8 10 | 16 14 | 93.58 7 | 94.59 7 | 91.96 13 | 90.93 15 southwest 21 Memphis Grizzlies = 87.32 23 39 89.89( 22) 3 16 | 7 25 | 87.62 21 | 87.21 21 | 87.06 22 | 86.08 22 southwest 22 New Orleans Pelicans = 86.63 21 45 89.97( 20) 4 16 | 4 28 | 86.44 22 | 84.98 25 | 88.13 20 | 89.40 19 southwest 24 Dallas Mavericks = 85.18 21 43 89.99( 19) 5 18 | 9 25 | 85.45 24 | 85.56 23 | 84.39 24 | 82.75 26 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 northwest = 91.32 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51] 1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 98.81 50 15 89.76( 26) 9 10 | 19 11 | 99.70 1 | 100.59 1 | 97.11 3 | 96.30 5 northwest 10 Minnesota Timberwolves = 92.99 40 24 89.35( 29) 10 5 | 16 13 | 93.38 8 | 93.62 9 | 91.99 10 | 92.25 11 northwest 11 Denver Nuggets = 92.87 39 25 89.73( 27) 9 13 | 15 17 | 93.04 10 | 94.03 8 | 91.64 15 | 90.49 16 northwest 20 Portland Trail Blazers = 87.96 31 34 90.82( 1) 7 17 | 11 26 | 87.66 20 | 88.40 20 | 87.74 21 | 88.71 20 northwest 26 Utah Jazz = 82.57 19 45 90.40( 4) 7 15 | 8 27 | 81.98 27 | 81.60 28 | 83.72 26 | 84.09 23 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 90.09 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.26] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.51] [ 1.51] 13 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.94 31 32 90.29( 9) 7 14 | 12 21 | 92.04 13 | 91.33 14 | 92.43 9 | 93.40 9 pacific 14 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.84 39 25 89.84( 23) 6 12 | 12 17 | 91.58 14 | 92.11 11 | 91.77 14 | 92.25 12 pacific 17 Golden State Warriors = 91.14 32 31 90.39( 5) 9 11 | 14 20 | 91.50 16 | 91.58 13 | 90.31 17 | 89.61 18 pacific 18 Phoenix Suns = 90.06 37 27 90.29( 8) 10 12 | 16 19 | 89.89 18 | 90.51 18 | 89.71 18 | 89.75 17 pacific 28 Sacramento Kings = 81.64 15 50 90.71( 3) 5 18 | 7 29 | 81.58 28 | 81.86 27 | 81.42 29 | 80.37 28 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.26 1.13 1.13 1.51 1.51 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 Memphis Grizzlies 4.73 5.63 5.04 3.60 2.95 @ Brooklyn Nets 176 64% 111.68 116.00 227.67 2 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 7.06 7.22 6.11 7.86 8.08 Philadelphia 76ers 230 70% 119.30 114.14 233.45 3 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 7.19 7.79 7.68 6.99 7.32 Denver Nuggets 234 70% 119.76 111.25 231.01 4 Golden State Warrior 7.32 8.39 8.85 5.08 4.01 @ Utah Jazz 237 70% 114.12 121.92 236.04 5 New York Knicks 3.55 3.67 3.47 3.64 3.03 @ Los Angeles Clippers 154 61% 110.95 115.40 226.35 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 March 8 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.26 1.13 1.13 1.51 1.51 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 Memphis Grizzlies 2.64 3.54 2.95 1.51 0.86 @ Brooklyn Nets 138 58% 111.68 116.00 227.67 2 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 4.42 4.59 3.48 5.23 5.45 Philadelphia 76ers 170 63% 119.30 114.14 233.45 3 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 5.39 5.99 5.89 5.19 5.52 Denver Nuggets 191 66% 119.76 111.25 231.01 4 Golden State Warrior 7.41 8.48 8.94 5.17 4.10 @ Utah Jazz 239 71% 114.12 121.92 236.04 5 New York Knicks 2.26 2.39 2.19 2.35 1.75 @ Los Angeles Clippers 132 57% 110.95 115.40 226.35EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Memphis Grizzlies 1.64 122 55% @ Brooklyn Nets 2 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 5.62 195 66% Philadelphia 76ers 3 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 8.77 278 74% Denver Nuggets 4 Golden State Warrior 5.99 204 67% @ Utah Jazz 5 New York Knicks 4.75 177 64% @ Los Angeles Clippers endfileTop_of_Page