United States Naval Observatory

 

Clock requires Netscape

note: clock runs for 30 seconds; it may skip seconds; to restart click reload


Jeff Sagarin'stm NBA Ratings


[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings | USA Today - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings ]

NFL can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NFL ratings ]

MLB Baseball can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin MLB Baseball ratings ]

NBA can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NBA ratings ]

NHL can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NHL ratings ]

College Football can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin College Football ratings ]

College Basketball can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin College Basketball ratings ]

NASCAR can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin NASCAR ratings ]

MLS Soccer can also be found at: [ USA Today - Jeff Sagarin MLS Soccer ratings ]

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2016 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NBA 2015-2016 ratings through results of 2016 MAY 2 MONDAY - Second Round of Playoffs


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


New_Feature

HOME team in CAPS Regular Method Predictions "New_Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== TORONTO_RAPTORS 4.13 4.34 4.89 1.54 miami_heat TORONTO_RAPTORS 98.66 - 94.20 4.46 192.87 miami_heat ~ 4.59 GOLDEN_STATE_WAR 11.66 12.47 12.40 7.88 portland_trail_b GOLDEN_STATE_WAR 116.77 - 104.11 12.66 220.88 portland_trail_b ~ 12.18
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   1  Golden State Warriors   = 100.27   78  10   89.63(  29)   21   2  |   41   5  |  100.15    2 |  100.55    1 |   99.83    1
   2  San Antonio Spurs       =  99.61   72  16   89.67(  28)   15  10  |   29  13  |  100.39    1 |  100.16    2 |   97.96    2
   3  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  96.70   60  29   89.97(  21)   11  14  |   24  19  |   97.20    3 |   96.47    3 |   96.62    3
   4  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  95.65   62  25   89.47(  30)   16   9  |   29  18  |   95.61    4 |   95.69    4 |   95.62    4
   5  Toronto Raptors         =  93.74   60  29   89.77(  27)   22  12  |   33  17  |   93.60    7 |   94.10    5 |   93.13    8
   6  Los Angeles Clippers    =  93.51   55  33   89.94(  24)    7  16  |   22  24  |   94.21    5 |   93.74    6 |   92.04   11
   7  Atlanta Hawks           =  93.47   52  37   90.11(  16)   13  21  |   26  26  |   93.68    6 |   93.16    7 |   94.01    7
   8  Miami Heat              =  92.57   52  37   89.92(  26)    9  17  |   22  29  |   92.09    9 |   92.21    9 |   94.60    6
   9  Boston Celtics          =  91.94   50  38   89.93(  25)   12  20  |   23  26  |   92.30    8 |   92.24    8 |   90.68   14
  10  Indiana Pacers          =  91.85   48  41   90.25(   8)   15  20  |   21  30  |   91.72   11 |   91.66   10 |   92.56    9
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
  11  Portland Trail Blazers  =  91.56   48  41   90.43(   5)   13  21  |   21  27  |   90.52   13 |   91.16   12 |   94.96    5
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  91.46   51  38   89.97(  22)   13  23  |   20  29  |   91.20   12 |   91.54   11 |   91.69   12
  13  Utah Jazz               =  91.20   40  42   90.04(  18)    8  19  |   13  28  |   91.79   10 |   91.10   13 |   90.52   15
  14  Houston Rockets         =  90.43   42  45   90.68(   1)   12  20  |   18  28  |   90.45   14 |   90.09   15 |   91.34   13
  15  Washington Wizards      =  90.28   41  41   89.97(  23)    8  23  |   15  30  |   89.73   16 |   89.88   17 |   92.30   10
  16  Detroit Pistons         =  89.96   44  42   90.15(  14)   12  23  |   20  28  |   90.00   15 |   90.19   14 |   89.30   17
  17  Dallas Mavericks        =  89.74   43  44   90.64(   2)    5  28  |   14  35  |   89.34   17 |   89.90   16 |   89.97   16
  18  Chicago Bulls           =  88.94   42  40   90.02(  19)   15  16  |   22  26  |   89.00   18 |   89.22   18 |   88.12   20
  19  Orlando Magic           =  88.30   35  47   89.97(  20)    7  24  |   12  36  |   88.18   19 |   88.22   20 |   88.71   18
  20  Memphis Grizzlies       =  88.04   42  44   90.51(   4)    7  23  |   15  32  |   88.04   20 |   88.81   19 |   85.69   24
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
  21  Sacramento Kings        =  87.61   33  49   90.16(  13)    8  19  |   13  31  |   87.69   21 |   87.48   21 |   87.85   21
  22  Denver Nuggets          =  86.97   33  49   90.27(   6)    6  21  |   16  28  |   86.91   24 |   87.11   22 |   86.74   23
  23  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  86.81   29  53   90.13(  15)    8  18  |   11  32  |   86.42   26 |   86.23   26 |   88.69   19
  24  New York Knicks         =  86.78   32  50   90.04(  17)    6  25  |   13  34  |   86.99   23 |   87.05   23 |   85.64   25
  25  Milwaukee Bucks         =  86.43   33  49   90.19(  12)    8  22  |   13  35  |   86.55   25 |   86.78   24 |   85.16   26
  26  New Orleans Pelicans    =  86.31   30  52   90.20(  11)    4  22  |   12  32  |   87.05   22 |   86.67   25 |   83.43   27
  27  Phoenix Suns            =  85.01   23  59   90.22(  10)    4  23  |    8  35  |   84.23   27 |   84.27   27 |   87.37   22
  28  Brooklyn Nets           =  82.74   21  61   90.24(   9)    7  24  |   11  37  |   83.03   28 |   82.84   28 |   81.90   29
  29  Los Angeles Lakers      =  82.08   17  65   90.55(   3)    3  25  |    6  39  |   81.60   29 |   81.68   29 |   83.43   28
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.03   10  72   90.27(   7)    0  29  |    1  46  |   80.32   30 |   79.81   30 |   80.12   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  91.32      91.22  (  1)      5      91.22  (  1)
   2  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.46      90.65  (  3)      5      90.59  (  2)
   3  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  90.39      90.56  (  4)      5      90.53  (  4)
   4  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.23      90.83  (  2)      5      90.58  (  3)
   5  PACIFIC   (west)        =  89.14      89.70  (  5)      5      89.43  (  5)
   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.05      87.05  (  6)      5      87.05  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.05      87.05  (  6)      5      87.05  (  6)
   3  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  90.39      90.56  (  4)      5      90.53  (  4)
   1  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  91.32      91.22  (  1)      5      91.22  (  1)
   4  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.23      90.83  (  2)      5      90.58  (  3)
   2  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.46      90.65  (  3)      5      90.59  (  2)
   5  PACIFIC   (west)        =  89.14      89.70  (  5)      5      89.43  (  5)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.05      87.05  (  6)   TEAMS=  5      87.05  (  6)
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   5  Toronto Raptors         =  93.74   60  29   89.77(  27)   22  12  |   33  17  |   93.60    7 |   94.10    5 |   93.13    8
   9  Boston Celtics          =  91.94   50  38   89.93(  25)   12  20  |   23  26  |   92.30    8 |   92.24    8 |   90.68   14
  24  New York Knicks         =  86.78   32  50   90.04(  17)    6  25  |   13  34  |   86.99   23 |   87.05   23 |   85.64   25
  28  Brooklyn Nets           =  82.74   21  61   90.24(   9)    7  24  |   11  37  |   83.03   28 |   82.84   28 |   81.90   29
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.03   10  72   90.27(   7)    0  29  |    1  46  |   80.32   30 |   79.81   30 |   80.12   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  90.39      90.56  (  4)   TEAMS=  5      90.53  (  4)
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   4  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  95.65   62  25   89.47(  30)   16   9  |   29  18  |   95.61    4 |   95.69    4 |   95.62    4
  10  Indiana Pacers          =  91.85   48  41   90.25(   8)   15  20  |   21  30  |   91.72   11 |   91.66   10 |   92.56    9
  16  Detroit Pistons         =  89.96   44  42   90.15(  14)   12  23  |   20  28  |   90.00   15 |   90.19   14 |   89.30   17
  18  Chicago Bulls           =  88.94   42  40   90.02(  19)   15  16  |   22  26  |   89.00   18 |   89.22   18 |   88.12   20
  25  Milwaukee Bucks         =  86.43   33  49   90.19(  12)    8  22  |   13  35  |   86.55   25 |   86.78   24 |   85.16   26
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  91.32      91.22  (  1)   TEAMS=  5      91.22  (  1)
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   7  Atlanta Hawks           =  93.47   52  37   90.11(  16)   13  21  |   26  26  |   93.68    6 |   93.16    7 |   94.01    7
   8  Miami Heat              =  92.57   52  37   89.92(  26)    9  17  |   22  29  |   92.09    9 |   92.21    9 |   94.60    6
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  91.46   51  38   89.97(  22)   13  23  |   20  29  |   91.20   12 |   91.54   11 |   91.69   12
  15  Washington Wizards      =  90.28   41  41   89.97(  23)    8  23  |   15  30  |   89.73   16 |   89.88   17 |   92.30   10
  19  Orlando Magic           =  88.30   35  47   89.97(  20)    7  24  |   12  36  |   88.18   19 |   88.22   20 |   88.71   18
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.23      90.83  (  2)   TEAMS=  5      90.58  (  3)
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   2  San Antonio Spurs       =  99.61   72  16   89.67(  28)   15  10  |   29  13  |  100.39    1 |  100.16    2 |   97.96    2
  14  Houston Rockets         =  90.43   42  45   90.68(   1)   12  20  |   18  28  |   90.45   14 |   90.09   15 |   91.34   13
  17  Dallas Mavericks        =  89.74   43  44   90.64(   2)    5  28  |   14  35  |   89.34   17 |   89.90   16 |   89.97   16
  20  Memphis Grizzlies       =  88.04   42  44   90.51(   4)    7  23  |   15  32  |   88.04   20 |   88.81   19 |   85.69   24
  26  New Orleans Pelicans    =  86.31   30  52   90.20(  11)    4  22  |   12  32  |   87.05   22 |   86.67   25 |   83.43   27
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.46      90.65  (  3)   TEAMS=  5      90.59  (  2)
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   3  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  96.70   60  29   89.97(  21)   11  14  |   24  19  |   97.20    3 |   96.47    3 |   96.62    3
  11  Portland Trail Blazers  =  91.56   48  41   90.43(   5)   13  21  |   21  27  |   90.52   13 |   91.16   12 |   94.96    5
  13  Utah Jazz               =  91.20   40  42   90.04(  18)    8  19  |   13  28  |   91.79   10 |   91.10   13 |   90.52   15
  22  Denver Nuggets          =  86.97   33  49   90.27(   6)    6  21  |   16  28  |   86.91   24 |   87.11   22 |   86.74   23
  23  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  86.81   29  53   90.13(  15)    8  18  |   11  32  |   86.42   26 |   86.23   26 |   88.69   19
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  PACIFIC   (west)        =  89.14      89.70  (  5)   TEAMS=  5      89.43  (  5)
NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs                                                                      
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.95]                                               [  2.84]       [  3.01]       [  3.01]
   1  Golden State Warriors   = 100.27   78  10   89.63(  29)   21   2  |   41   5  |  100.15    2 |  100.55    1 |   99.83    1
   6  Los Angeles Clippers    =  93.51   55  33   89.94(  24)    7  16  |   22  24  |   94.21    5 |   93.74    6 |   92.04   11
  21  Sacramento Kings        =  87.61   33  49   90.16(  13)    8  19  |   13  31  |   87.69   21 |   87.48   21 |   87.85   21
  27  Phoenix Suns            =  85.01   23  59   90.22(  10)    4  23  |    8  35  |   84.23   27 |   84.27   27 |   87.37   22
  29  Los Angeles Lakers      =  82.08   17  65   90.55(   3)    3  25  |    6  39  |   81.60   29 |   81.68   29 |   83.43   28
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

New_Feature

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.00693 closeby=1.00346 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=103.48 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home San Antonio Spurs 105.46 101.86 3.60 207.32 away Golden State Warriors away San Antonio Spurs 102.60 104.72 -2.12 207.32 home Golden State Warriors neutral San Antonio Spurs 104.02 103.29 0.73 207.31 neutral Golden State Warriors ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 1 San Antonio Spurs 1.05577 14.39 13.63 ( 28) 72 - 16 18 - 9 29 - 13 101.16 San Antonio Spurs 1 2 Golden State Warriors 1.05243 15.17 14.42 ( 29) 78 - 10 23 - 2 41 - 5 100.51 Golden State Warriors 2 3 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.03650 14.88 14.35 ( 17) 60 - 29 14 - 13 24 - 19 97.37 Oklahoma City Thunder 3 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.02817 14.46 14.07 ( 30) 62 - 25 14 - 9 29 - 18 95.71 Cleveland Cavaliers 4 5 Los Angeles Clippers 1.02001 14.41 14.13 ( 24) 55 - 33 8 - 16 22 - 24 94.07 Los Angeles Clippers 5 6 Toronto Raptors 1.01911 14.31 14.05 ( 27) 60 - 29 16 - 9 33 - 17 93.89 Toronto Raptors 6 7 Atlanta Hawks 1.01861 14.36 14.09 ( 15) 52 - 37 12 - 20 26 - 26 93.79 Atlanta Hawks 7 8 Boston Celtics 1.01209 14.53 14.36 ( 25) 50 - 38 12 - 18 23 - 26 92.47 Boston Celtics 8 9 Miami Heat 1.01046 14.17 14.03 ( 23) 52 - 37 8 - 16 22 - 29 92.14 Miami Heat 9 10 Utah Jazz 1.01008 13.98 13.84 ( 18) 40 - 42 6 - 19 13 - 28 92.06 Utah Jazz 10 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 11 Indiana Pacers 1.00990 14.31 14.17 ( 9) 48 - 41 15 - 22 21 - 30 92.03 Indiana Pacers 11 12 Charlotte Hornets 1.00799 14.36 14.24 ( 26) 51 - 38 11 - 24 20 - 29 91.64 Charlotte Hornets 12 13 Portland Trail Blazers 1.00572 14.50 14.42 ( 5) 48 - 41 14 - 22 21 - 27 91.17 Portland Trail Blazers 13 14 Detroit Pistons 1.00088 14.30 14.28 ( 16) 44 - 42 13 - 20 20 - 28 90.18 Detroit Pistons 14 15 Houston Rockets 0.99933 14.57 14.58 ( 1) 42 - 45 13 - 21 18 - 28 89.86 Houston Rockets 15 16 Washington Wizards 0.99776 14.48 14.51 ( 21) 41 - 41 8 - 22 15 - 30 89.54 Washington Wizards 16 17 Dallas Mavericks 0.99746 14.28 14.32 ( 2) 43 - 44 7 - 27 14 - 35 89.48 Dallas Mavericks 17 18 Chicago Bulls 0.99324 14.31 14.41 ( 19) 42 - 40 13 - 16 22 - 26 88.61 Chicago Bulls 18 19 Orlando Magic 0.99173 14.32 14.44 ( 22) 35 - 47 8 - 21 12 - 36 88.29 Orlando Magic 19 20 Sacramento Kings 0.98889 14.62 14.79 ( 13) 33 - 49 8 - 20 13 - 31 87.70 Sacramento Kings 20 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 21 Memphis Grizzlies 0.98735 14.06 14.24 ( 4) 42 - 44 6 - 25 15 - 32 87.38 Memphis Grizzlies 21 22 Denver Nuggets 0.98620 14.30 14.50 ( 7) 33 - 49 5 - 24 16 - 28 87.14 Denver Nuggets 22 23 New York Knicks 0.98613 14.06 14.26 ( 20) 32 - 50 7 - 23 13 - 34 87.13 New York Knicks 23 24 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.98350 14.33 14.57 ( 14) 29 - 53 9 - 19 11 - 32 86.58 Minnesota Timberwolves 24 25 New Orleans Pelicans 0.98276 14.36 14.62 ( 10) 30 - 52 6 - 22 12 - 32 86.42 New Orleans Pelicans 25 26 Milwaukee Bucks 0.98080 14.12 14.39 ( 12) 33 - 49 7 - 21 13 - 35 86.01 Milwaukee Bucks 26 27 Phoenix Suns 0.96996 14.23 14.68 ( 6) 23 - 59 4 - 25 8 - 35 83.73 Phoenix Suns 27 28 Brooklyn Nets 0.96556 14.10 14.60 ( 11) 21 - 61 7 - 22 11 - 37 82.79 Brooklyn Nets 28 29 Los Angeles Lakers 0.95743 13.99 14.61 ( 3) 17 - 65 4 - 26 6 - 39 81.05 Los Angeles Lakers 29 30 Philadelphia 76ers 0.95289 14.01 14.70 ( 8) 10 - 72 0 - 28 1 - 46 80.08 Philadelphia 76ers 30

Divisional Rankings

DIVISION GEOMETRIC MEAN 1 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 1.00527 ( 5) 91.08018( 2.17603) 2 NORTHWEST (west) = 1.00422 ( 5) 90.86578( 4.36166) 3 SOUTHWEST (west) = 1.00420 ( 5) 90.86130( 5.93338) 4 CENTRAL (EAST) = 1.00247 ( 5) 90.50764( 3.65156) 5 PACIFIC (west) = 0.99715 ( 5) 89.41327( 7.90643) 6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.98682 ( 5) 87.27184( 5.97379) DIVISION GEOMETRIC MEAN 6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.98682 ( 5) 87.27184( 5.97379) 4 CENTRAL (EAST) = 1.00247 ( 5) 90.50764( 3.65156) 1 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 1.00527 ( 5) 91.08018( 2.17603) 3 SOUTHWEST (west) = 1.00420 ( 5) 90.86130( 5.93338) 2 NORTHWEST (west) = 1.00422 ( 5) 90.86578( 4.36166) 5 PACIFIC (west) = 0.99715 ( 5) 89.41327( 7.90643) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Each team score = OFF x opponent DEF and then multiplied or divided by home or closeby factor. No factor needed if neutral location; fullhome=1.00693 closeby=1.00346 Finally, subtract the listed constant from each projected score. subtract=103.48 EXAMPLE OFFENSE DEFENSE SPREAD TOTAL home Toronto Raptors 103.43 99.26 4.17 202.69 away Boston Celtics away Toronto Raptors 100.60 102.08 -1.48 202.68 home Boston Celtics neutral Toronto Raptors 102.01 100.67 1.34 202.68 neutral Boston Celtics ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 0.98682 87.27184 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 6 Toronto Raptors 1.01911 14.31 14.05 ( 27) 60 - 29 16 - 9 33 - 17 93.89 Toronto Raptors 6 8 Boston Celtics 1.01209 14.53 14.36 ( 25) 50 - 38 12 - 18 23 - 26 92.47 Boston Celtics 8 23 New York Knicks 0.98613 14.06 14.26 ( 20) 32 - 50 7 - 23 13 - 34 87.13 New York Knicks 23 28 Brooklyn Nets 0.96556 14.10 14.60 ( 11) 21 - 61 7 - 22 11 - 37 82.79 Brooklyn Nets 28 30 Philadelphia 76ers 0.95289 14.01 14.70 ( 8) 10 - 72 0 - 28 1 - 46 80.08 Philadelphia 76ers 30 4 CENTRAL (EAST) = 1.00247 90.50764 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.02817 14.46 14.07 ( 30) 62 - 25 14 - 9 29 - 18 95.71 Cleveland Cavaliers 4 11 Indiana Pacers 1.00990 14.31 14.17 ( 9) 48 - 41 15 - 22 21 - 30 92.03 Indiana Pacers 11 14 Detroit Pistons 1.00088 14.30 14.28 ( 16) 44 - 42 13 - 20 20 - 28 90.18 Detroit Pistons 14 18 Chicago Bulls 0.99324 14.31 14.41 ( 19) 42 - 40 13 - 16 22 - 26 88.61 Chicago Bulls 18 26 Milwaukee Bucks 0.98080 14.12 14.39 ( 12) 33 - 49 7 - 21 13 - 35 86.01 Milwaukee Bucks 26 1 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 1.00527 91.08018 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 7 Atlanta Hawks 1.01861 14.36 14.09 ( 15) 52 - 37 12 - 20 26 - 26 93.79 Atlanta Hawks 7 9 Miami Heat 1.01046 14.17 14.03 ( 23) 52 - 37 8 - 16 22 - 29 92.14 Miami Heat 9 12 Charlotte Hornets 1.00799 14.36 14.24 ( 26) 51 - 38 11 - 24 20 - 29 91.64 Charlotte Hornets 12 16 Washington Wizards 0.99776 14.48 14.51 ( 21) 41 - 41 8 - 22 15 - 30 89.54 Washington Wizards 16 19 Orlando Magic 0.99173 14.32 14.44 ( 22) 35 - 47 8 - 21 12 - 36 88.29 Orlando Magic 19 3 SOUTHWEST (west) = 1.00420 90.86130 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 1 San Antonio Spurs 1.05577 14.39 13.63 ( 28) 72 - 16 18 - 9 29 - 13 101.16 San Antonio Spurs 1 15 Houston Rockets 0.99933 14.57 14.58 ( 1) 42 - 45 13 - 21 18 - 28 89.86 Houston Rockets 15 17 Dallas Mavericks 0.99746 14.28 14.32 ( 2) 43 - 44 7 - 27 14 - 35 89.48 Dallas Mavericks 17 21 Memphis Grizzlies 0.98735 14.06 14.24 ( 4) 42 - 44 6 - 25 15 - 32 87.38 Memphis Grizzlies 21 25 New Orleans Pelicans 0.98276 14.36 14.62 ( 10) 30 - 52 6 - 22 12 - 32 86.42 New Orleans Pelicans 25 2 NORTHWEST (west) = 1.00422 90.86578 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 3 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.03650 14.88 14.35 ( 17) 60 - 29 14 - 13 24 - 19 97.37 Oklahoma City Thunder 3 10 Utah Jazz 1.01008 13.98 13.84 ( 18) 40 - 42 6 - 19 13 - 28 92.06 Utah Jazz 10 13 Portland Trail Blazers 1.00572 14.50 14.42 ( 5) 48 - 41 14 - 22 21 - 27 91.17 Portland Trail Blazers 13 22 Denver Nuggets 0.98620 14.30 14.50 ( 7) 33 - 49 5 - 24 16 - 28 87.14 Denver Nuggets 22 24 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.98350 14.33 14.57 ( 14) 29 - 53 9 - 19 11 - 32 86.58 Minnesota Timberwolves 24 5 PACIFIC (west) = 0.99715 89.41327 NBA 2015-2016 through games of 2016 May 2 Monday - First Round of Playoffs HOME multiplier= 1.00693 RATIO = OFF / DEF SKED W L VS top 10 VS top 16 APPROX CLOSEBY multiplier= 1.00346 (14.34006) SUBTRACT=103.48 average home edge= 2.84 2 Golden State Warriors 1.05243 15.17 14.42 ( 29) 78 - 10 23 - 2 41 - 5 100.51 Golden State Warriors 2 5 Los Angeles Clippers 1.02001 14.41 14.13 ( 24) 55 - 33 8 - 16 22 - 24 94.07 Los Angeles Clippers 5 20 Sacramento Kings 0.98889 14.62 14.79 ( 13) 33 - 49 8 - 20 13 - 31 87.70 Sacramento Kings 20 27 Phoenix Suns 0.96996 14.23 14.68 ( 6) 23 - 59 4 - 25 8 - 35 83.73 Phoenix Suns 27 29 Los Angeles Lakers 0.95743 13.99 14.61 ( 3) 17 - 65 4 - 26 6 - 39 81.05 Los Angeles Lakers 29

Top_of_Page

endfile