United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 JUNE 17 MONDAY - NBA FINALS
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95]
1 Boston Celtics = 101.29 80 21 90.07( 23) 24 9 | 41 15 | 100.67 1 | 101.01 1 | 101.44 1 | 102.24 1 ATLANTIC
2 Oklahoma City Thunder = 98.06 63 29 90.77( 9) 21 14 | 33 21 | 98.69 2 | 97.74 2 | 97.13 2 | 96.86 2 northwest
3 Dallas Mavericks = 96.55 63 41 91.55( 1) 21 23 | 30 29 | 97.04 3 | 95.11 5 | 96.20 3 | 96.10 3 southwest
4 Minnesota Timberwolves = 96.44 65 33 91.01( 2) 24 19 | 34 25 | 96.68 4 | 97.07 3 | 95.63 4 | 95.10 6 northwest
5 Denver Nuggets = 95.39 64 30 90.72( 11) 19 16 | 32 22 | 94.94 6 | 96.16 4 | 95.27 5 | 95.76 4 northwest
6 Indiana Pacers = 94.94 55 45 90.49( 14) 15 18 | 30 28 | 95.15 5 | 93.44 8 | 94.95 6 | 95.22 5 CENTRAL
7 Sacramento Kings = 93.92 47 37 90.77( 8) 15 16 | 23 26 | 94.65 7 | 93.11 12 | 93.30 7 | 93.24 8 pacific
8 Golden State Warriors = 93.36 46 37 90.46( 15) 8 22 | 18 27 | 93.36 9 | 93.13 11 | 93.23 8 | 93.51 7 pacific
9 New York Knicks = 93.34 57 38 90.31( 18) 11 18 | 24 31 | 93.43 8 | 93.69 6 | 92.93 10 | 92.76 10 ATLANTIC
10 Phoenix Suns = 93.25 49 37 90.55( 13) 14 17 | 23 24 | 93.31 10 | 93.33 9 | 92.96 9 | 92.91 9 pacific
Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95]
11 New Orleans Pelicans = 92.92 50 38 90.75( 10) 18 18 | 23 26 | 92.79 11 | 93.54 7 | 92.67 11 | 92.55 12 southwest
12 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.67 50 39 90.99( 3) 14 25 | 22 30 | 92.67 12 | 92.25 14 | 92.63 12 | 92.68 11 pacific
13 Philadelphia 76ers = 92.06 50 39 89.66( 29) 12 19 | 19 27 | 91.80 15 | 91.83 15 | 92.25 13 | 92.49 13 ATLANTIC
14 Milwaukee Bucks = 91.78 51 37 90.21( 19) 16 18 | 24 24 | 91.33 16 | 92.37 13 | 91.91 14 | 91.96 14 CENTRAL
15 Orlando Magic = 91.75 50 39 89.48( 30) 10 14 | 16 23 | 91.94 13 | 91.82 16 | 91.45 15 | 91.07 15 SOUTHEAST
16 Miami Heat = 91.55 48 41 89.94( 24) 6 22 | 15 29 | 91.91 14 | 91.59 17 | 91.10 16 | 90.52 18 SOUTHEAST
17 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.30 53 35 90.83( 7) 19 19 | 26 28 | 90.93 18 | 93.19 10 | 91.00 17 | 91.03 16 pacific
18 Houston Rockets = 91.00 41 41 90.35( 17) 12 19 | 18 29 | 91.11 17 | 90.96 19 | 90.84 18 | 90.99 17 southwest
19 Cleveland Cavaliers = 90.30 53 41 90.37( 16) 12 17 | 24 32 | 89.80 19 | 91.53 18 | 90.38 19 | 90.47 19 CENTRAL
20 Chicago Bulls = 88.59 40 44 89.68( 28) 8 17 | 16 29 | 88.42 20 | 88.36 20 | 88.91 20 | 88.89 20 CENTRAL
Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95]
21 Atlanta Hawks = 86.71 36 47 89.86( 27) 7 18 | 16 28 | 86.19 22 | 87.05 21 | 87.27 21 | 87.42 21 SOUTHEAST
22 San Antonio Spurs = 86.49 22 60 90.83( 6) 9 24 | 11 37 | 87.34 21 | 84.37 24 | 86.47 22 | 86.49 22 southwest
23 Brooklyn Nets = 85.26 32 50 89.87( 26) 3 22 | 10 34 | 85.10 23 | 86.16 22 | 85.41 23 | 85.27 23 ATLANTIC
24 Utah Jazz = 84.62 31 51 90.93( 5) 5 28 | 12 36 | 84.51 24 | 85.85 23 | 84.63 24 | 84.60 24 northwest
25 Memphis Grizzlies = 82.62 27 55 90.68( 12) 5 25 | 13 33 | 82.35 25 | 83.28 25 | 83.12 25 | 82.99 25 southwest
26 Portland Trail Blazers = 81.21 21 61 90.95( 4) 4 29 | 6 41 | 80.90 28 | 81.36 27 | 81.99 26 | 82.56 26 northwest
27 Washington Wizards = 81.08 15 67 89.91( 25) 2 22 | 4 39 | 81.50 26 | 79.31 29 | 81.68 27 | 81.53 27 SOUTHEAST
28 Charlotte Hornets = 80.62 21 61 90.09( 22) 5 20 | 6 39 | 80.79 29 | 80.17 28 | 81.20 28 | 81.14 29 SOUTHEAST
29 Detroit Pistons = 80.49 14 68 90.13( 20) 3 21 | 3 41 | 80.93 27 | 79.27 30 | 80.97 30 | 80.42 30 CENTRAL
30 Toronto Raptors = 80.46 25 57 90.10( 21) 6 20 | 9 35 | 79.78 30 | 81.96 26 | 81.08 29 | 81.22 28 ATLANTIC
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endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 pacific = 93.00 92.90 ( 1) 5 92.90 ( 1) 2 northwest = 91.95 91.14 ( 2) 5 91.14 ( 2) 3 ATLANTIC = 90.57 90.48 ( 3) 5 90.48 ( 3) 4 southwest = 90.11 89.92 ( 4) 5 89.92 ( 4) 5 CENTRAL = 89.67 89.22 ( 5) 5 89.22 ( 5) 6 SOUTHEAST = 86.42 86.34 ( 6) 5 86.34 ( 6) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 3 ATLANTIC = 90.57 90.48 ( 3) 5 90.48 ( 3) 5 CENTRAL = 89.67 89.22 ( 5) 5 89.22 ( 5) 6 SOUTHEAST = 86.42 86.34 ( 6) 5 86.34 ( 6) 4 southwest = 90.11 89.92 ( 4) 5 89.92 ( 4) 2 northwest = 91.95 91.14 ( 2) 5 91.14 ( 2) 1 pacific = 93.00 92.90 ( 1) 5 92.90 ( 1) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 ATLANTIC = 90.57 Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95] 1 Boston Celtics = 101.29 80 21 90.07( 23) 24 9 | 41 15 | 100.67 1 | 101.01 1 | 101.44 1 | 102.24 1 ATLANTIC 9 New York Knicks = 93.34 57 38 90.31( 18) 11 18 | 24 31 | 93.43 8 | 93.69 6 | 92.93 10 | 92.76 10 ATLANTIC 13 Philadelphia 76ers = 92.06 50 39 89.66( 29) 12 19 | 19 27 | 91.80 15 | 91.83 15 | 92.25 13 | 92.49 13 ATLANTIC 23 Brooklyn Nets = 85.26 32 50 89.87( 26) 3 22 | 10 34 | 85.10 23 | 86.16 22 | 85.41 23 | 85.27 23 ATLANTIC 30 Toronto Raptors = 80.46 25 57 90.10( 21) 6 20 | 9 35 | 79.78 30 | 81.96 26 | 81.08 29 | 81.22 28 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 CENTRAL = 89.67 Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95] 6 Indiana Pacers = 94.94 55 45 90.49( 14) 15 18 | 30 28 | 95.15 5 | 93.44 8 | 94.95 6 | 95.22 5 CENTRAL 14 Milwaukee Bucks = 91.78 51 37 90.21( 19) 16 18 | 24 24 | 91.33 16 | 92.37 13 | 91.91 14 | 91.96 14 CENTRAL 19 Cleveland Cavaliers = 90.30 53 41 90.37( 16) 12 17 | 24 32 | 89.80 19 | 91.53 18 | 90.38 19 | 90.47 19 CENTRAL 20 Chicago Bulls = 88.59 40 44 89.68( 28) 8 17 | 16 29 | 88.42 20 | 88.36 20 | 88.91 20 | 88.89 20 CENTRAL 29 Detroit Pistons = 80.49 14 68 90.13( 20) 3 21 | 3 41 | 80.93 27 | 79.27 30 | 80.97 30 | 80.42 30 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 SOUTHEAST = 86.42 Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95] 15 Orlando Magic = 91.75 50 39 89.48( 30) 10 14 | 16 23 | 91.94 13 | 91.82 16 | 91.45 15 | 91.07 15 SOUTHEAST 16 Miami Heat = 91.55 48 41 89.94( 24) 6 22 | 15 29 | 91.91 14 | 91.59 17 | 91.10 16 | 90.52 18 SOUTHEAST 21 Atlanta Hawks = 86.71 36 47 89.86( 27) 7 18 | 16 28 | 86.19 22 | 87.05 21 | 87.27 21 | 87.42 21 SOUTHEAST 27 Washington Wizards = 81.08 15 67 89.91( 25) 2 22 | 4 39 | 81.50 26 | 79.31 29 | 81.68 27 | 81.53 27 SOUTHEAST 28 Charlotte Hornets = 80.62 21 61 90.09( 22) 5 20 | 6 39 | 80.79 29 | 80.17 28 | 81.20 28 | 81.14 29 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 southwest = 90.11 Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95] 3 Dallas Mavericks = 96.55 63 41 91.55( 1) 21 23 | 30 29 | 97.04 3 | 95.11 5 | 96.20 3 | 96.10 3 southwest 11 New Orleans Pelicans = 92.92 50 38 90.75( 10) 18 18 | 23 26 | 92.79 11 | 93.54 7 | 92.67 11 | 92.55 12 southwest 18 Houston Rockets = 91.00 41 41 90.35( 17) 12 19 | 18 29 | 91.11 17 | 90.96 19 | 90.84 18 | 90.99 17 southwest 22 San Antonio Spurs = 86.49 22 60 90.83( 6) 9 24 | 11 37 | 87.34 21 | 84.37 24 | 86.47 22 | 86.49 22 southwest 25 Memphis Grizzlies = 82.62 27 55 90.68( 12) 5 25 | 13 33 | 82.35 25 | 83.28 25 | 83.12 25 | 82.99 25 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 northwest = 91.95 Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95] 2 Oklahoma City Thunder = 98.06 63 29 90.77( 9) 21 14 | 33 21 | 98.69 2 | 97.74 2 | 97.13 2 | 96.86 2 northwest 4 Minnesota Timberwolves = 96.44 65 33 91.01( 2) 24 19 | 34 25 | 96.68 4 | 97.07 3 | 95.63 4 | 95.10 6 northwest 5 Denver Nuggets = 95.39 64 30 90.72( 11) 19 16 | 32 22 | 94.94 6 | 96.16 4 | 95.27 5 | 95.76 4 northwest 24 Utah Jazz = 84.62 31 51 90.93( 5) 5 28 | 12 36 | 84.51 24 | 85.85 23 | 84.63 24 | 84.60 24 northwest 26 Portland Trail Blazers = 81.21 21 61 90.95( 4) 4 29 | 6 41 | 80.90 28 | 81.36 27 | 81.99 26 | 82.56 26 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 pacific = 93.00 Final NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 June 17 Monday - NBA FINALS RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.28] [ 2.54] [ 2.49] [ 1.95] [ 1.95] 7 Sacramento Kings = 93.92 47 37 90.77( 8) 15 16 | 23 26 | 94.65 7 | 93.11 12 | 93.30 7 | 93.24 8 pacific 8 Golden State Warriors = 93.36 46 37 90.46( 15) 8 22 | 18 27 | 93.36 9 | 93.13 11 | 93.23 8 | 93.51 7 pacific 10 Phoenix Suns = 93.25 49 37 90.55( 13) 14 17 | 23 24 | 93.31 10 | 93.33 9 | 92.96 9 | 92.91 9 pacific 12 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.67 50 39 90.99( 3) 14 25 | 22 30 | 92.67 12 | 92.25 14 | 92.63 12 | 92.68 11 pacific 17 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.30 53 35 90.83( 7) 19 19 | 26 28 | 90.93 18 | 93.19 10 | 91.00 17 | 91.03 16 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ================================================================================================================ @ Boston Celtics 7.04 6.18 8.40 7.20 8.09 Dallas Mavericks 233 70% 218.09 @ Boston Celtics 9.66 8.79 11.02 9.82 10.71 Dallas Mavericks 311 76% 218.09 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Celtics 6.85 228 69% Dallas Mavericks 106 88 PREDICTION right endfileTop_of_Page