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Jeff Sagarin'stm NBA Ratings


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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2024 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NBA 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 APRIL 24 WEDNESDAY - FIRST ROUND PLAYOFFS


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file where you can check out the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
   1  Boston Celtics          = 100.08   65  19   89.51(  30)   15   9  |   30  14  |  100.36    1 |   99.98    1 |   99.64    1 |   96.66    5  ATLANTIC
   2  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  97.19   59  25   90.12(  15)   20   9  |   30  15  |   97.50    2 |   96.94    2 |   96.89    2 |   98.64    1  northwest
   3  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  96.33   58  26   90.06(  17)   18  12  |   27  18  |   96.57    3 |   96.61    3 |   95.40    4 |   94.74   11  northwest
   4  Denver Nuggets          =  95.51   59  25   90.04(  19)   17  11  |   25  18  |   95.16    4 |   95.76    4 |   96.14    3 |   97.31    3  northwest
   5  New York Knicks         =  94.18   52  32   89.81(  24)    7  15  |   20  23  |   94.30    5 |   94.10    5 |   94.03    5 |   93.93   12  ATLANTIC
   6  New Orleans Pelicans    =  93.87   50  36   90.41(   7)   13  15  |   26  20  |   94.10    6 |   93.80    6 |   93.47    9 |   89.97   17  southwest
   7  Los Angeles Clippers    =  93.16   52  32   90.25(  11)   14  15  |   23  23  |   93.39    7 |   93.66    7 |   91.91   15 |   90.84   15  pacific
   8  Phoenix Suns            =  93.00   49  35   90.35(   8)   13  15  |   23  21  |   92.75    8 |   93.02    8 |   93.70    8 |   95.89    9  pacific
   9  Indiana Pacers          =  92.76   48  37   89.87(  22)   10  12  |   24  19  |   92.57    9 |   92.41   12 |   93.97    6 |   98.12    2  CENTRAL
  10  Golden State Warriors   =  92.64   46  37   90.34(   9)    7  21  |   14  31  |   92.48   10 |   92.58    9 |   93.21   11 |   94.90   10  pacific
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
  11  Dallas Mavericks        =  92.62   51  33   90.31(  10)   14  19  |   19  26  |   92.24   14 |   92.50   11 |   93.96    7 |   96.18    8  southwest
  12  Sacramento Kings        =  92.58   47  37   90.73(   5)   15  22  |   20  29  |   92.47   11 |   92.37   13 |   93.27   10 |   97.21    4  pacific
  13  Milwaukee Bucks         =  92.35   50  34   89.87(  23)   15  15  |   25  19  |   92.31   13 |   92.52   10 |   92.22   13 |   88.23   21  CENTRAL
  14  Philadelphia 76ers      =  92.17   48  37   89.69(  26)    9  18  |   16  27  |   92.42   12 |   91.97   15 |   91.87   16 |   96.33    7  ATLANTIC
  15  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  92.01   50  34   89.59(  29)   10  14  |   18  22  |   92.15   15 |   92.24   14 |   91.36   17 |   88.88   19  CENTRAL
  16  Miami Heat              =  91.66   48  38   89.67(  27)    5  20  |   13  28  |   91.42   16 |   91.59   17 |   92.48   12 |   96.46    6  SOUTHEAST
  17  Los Angeles Lakers      =  91.56   49  37   90.81(   2)   19  19  |   25  28  |   91.30   17 |   91.61   16 |   92.21   14 |   93.63   13  pacific
  18  Orlando Magic           =  91.13   47  37   89.65(  28)   12  12  |   17  28  |   91.25   18 |   91.36   18 |   90.52   19 |   88.68   20  SOUTHEAST
  19  Houston Rockets         =  91.04   41  41   90.24(  12)   11  20  |   17  29  |   91.22   19 |   90.90   19 |   90.80   18 |   89.52   18  southwest
  20  Chicago Bulls           =  88.39   40  44   89.77(  25)    9  16  |   16  29  |   88.21   20 |   88.37   20 |   88.90   20 |   90.15   16  CENTRAL
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
  21  Atlanta Hawks           =  87.49   36  47   89.90(  21)    9  16  |   14  30  |   87.51   21 |   87.59   21 |   87.29   21 |   84.65   22  SOUTHEAST
  22  Brooklyn Nets           =  86.73   32  50   89.94(  20)    4  21  |    9  35  |   87.02   22 |   87.01   22 |   85.43   23 |   83.94   24  ATLANTIC
  23  Utah Jazz               =  85.77   31  51   90.80(   3)    8  26  |   13  36  |   85.84   23 |   86.28   23 |   84.66   24 |   80.35   28  northwest
  24  San Antonio Spurs       =  84.66   22  60   90.79(   4)   10  23  |   10  38  |   84.29   24 |   83.93   24 |   86.43   22 |   91.48   14  southwest
  25  Memphis Grizzlies       =  83.59   27  55   90.55(   6)    6  25  |   12  34  |   83.54   26 |   83.91   25 |   83.17   25 |   81.07   26  southwest
  26  Toronto Raptors         =  83.30   25  57   90.07(  16)    5  21  |   10  34  |   83.65   25 |   83.72   26 |   81.15   29 |   75.28   30  ATLANTIC
  27  Portland Trail Blazers  =  81.99   21  61   90.85(   1)    3  30  |    7  41  |   81.86   27 |   82.17   27 |   82.02   26 |   80.90   27  northwest
  28  Detroit Pistons         =  80.90   14  68   90.18(  13)    1  23  |    3  41  |   81.15   28 |   80.37   29 |   80.99   30 |   78.46   29  CENTRAL
  29  Washington Wizards      =  80.86   15  67   90.04(  18)    1  23  |    4  39  |   80.88   29 |   80.19   30 |   81.68   27 |   84.24   23  SOUTHEAST
  30  Charlotte Hornets       =  80.46   21  61   90.17(  14)    4  21  |    7  37  |   80.08   30 |   80.51   28 |   81.21   28 |   83.36   25  SOUTHEAST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  pacific                 =  92.65      92.59  (  1)      5      92.59  (  1)
   2  northwest               =  92.21      91.36  (  2)      5      91.36  (  2)
   3  ATLANTIC                =  91.30      91.29  (  3)      5      91.29  (  3)
   4  CENTRAL                 =  90.13      89.28  (  4)      5      89.28  (  4)
   5  southwest               =  89.46      89.16  (  5)      5      89.16  (  5)
   6  SOUTHEAST               =  86.51      86.32  (  6)      5      86.32  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC                =  91.30      91.29  (  3)      5      91.29  (  3)
   4  CENTRAL                 =  90.13      89.28  (  4)      5      89.28  (  4)
   6  SOUTHEAST               =  86.51      86.32  (  6)      5      86.32  (  6)
   5  southwest               =  89.46      89.16  (  5)      5      89.16  (  5)
   2  northwest               =  92.21      91.36  (  2)      5      91.36  (  2)
   1  pacific                 =  92.65      92.59  (  1)      5      92.59  (  1)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC                =  91.30
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
   1  Boston Celtics          = 100.08   65  19   89.51(  30)   15   9  |   30  14  |  100.36    1 |   99.98    1 |   99.64    1 |   96.66    5  ATLANTIC
   5  New York Knicks         =  94.18   52  32   89.81(  24)    7  15  |   20  23  |   94.30    5 |   94.10    5 |   94.03    5 |   93.93   12  ATLANTIC
  14  Philadelphia 76ers      =  92.17   48  37   89.69(  26)    9  18  |   16  27  |   92.42   12 |   91.97   15 |   91.87   16 |   96.33    7  ATLANTIC
  22  Brooklyn Nets           =  86.73   32  50   89.94(  20)    4  21  |    9  35  |   87.02   22 |   87.01   22 |   85.43   23 |   83.94   24  ATLANTIC
  26  Toronto Raptors         =  83.30   25  57   90.07(  16)    5  21  |   10  34  |   83.65   25 |   83.72   26 |   81.15   29 |   75.28   30  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  CENTRAL                 =  90.13
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
   9  Indiana Pacers          =  92.76   48  37   89.87(  22)   10  12  |   24  19  |   92.57    9 |   92.41   12 |   93.97    6 |   98.12    2  CENTRAL
  13  Milwaukee Bucks         =  92.35   50  34   89.87(  23)   15  15  |   25  19  |   92.31   13 |   92.52   10 |   92.22   13 |   88.23   21  CENTRAL
  15  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  92.01   50  34   89.59(  29)   10  14  |   18  22  |   92.15   15 |   92.24   14 |   91.36   17 |   88.88   19  CENTRAL
  20  Chicago Bulls           =  88.39   40  44   89.77(  25)    9  16  |   16  29  |   88.21   20 |   88.37   20 |   88.90   20 |   90.15   16  CENTRAL
  28  Detroit Pistons         =  80.90   14  68   90.18(  13)    1  23  |    3  41  |   81.15   28 |   80.37   29 |   80.99   30 |   78.46   29  CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  SOUTHEAST               =  86.51
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
  16  Miami Heat              =  91.66   48  38   89.67(  27)    5  20  |   13  28  |   91.42   16 |   91.59   17 |   92.48   12 |   96.46    6  SOUTHEAST
  18  Orlando Magic           =  91.13   47  37   89.65(  28)   12  12  |   17  28  |   91.25   18 |   91.36   18 |   90.52   19 |   88.68   20  SOUTHEAST
  21  Atlanta Hawks           =  87.49   36  47   89.90(  21)    9  16  |   14  30  |   87.51   21 |   87.59   21 |   87.29   21 |   84.65   22  SOUTHEAST
  29  Washington Wizards      =  80.86   15  67   90.04(  18)    1  23  |    4  39  |   80.88   29 |   80.19   30 |   81.68   27 |   84.24   23  SOUTHEAST
  30  Charlotte Hornets       =  80.46   21  61   90.17(  14)    4  21  |    7  37  |   80.08   30 |   80.51   28 |   81.21   28 |   83.36   25  SOUTHEAST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  southwest               =  89.46
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
   6  New Orleans Pelicans    =  93.87   50  36   90.41(   7)   13  15  |   26  20  |   94.10    6 |   93.80    6 |   93.47    9 |   89.97   17  southwest
  11  Dallas Mavericks        =  92.62   51  33   90.31(  10)   14  19  |   19  26  |   92.24   14 |   92.50   11 |   93.96    7 |   96.18    8  southwest
  19  Houston Rockets         =  91.04   41  41   90.24(  12)   11  20  |   17  29  |   91.22   19 |   90.90   19 |   90.80   18 |   89.52   18  southwest
  24  San Antonio Spurs       =  84.66   22  60   90.79(   4)   10  23  |   10  38  |   84.29   24 |   83.93   24 |   86.43   22 |   91.48   14  southwest
  25  Memphis Grizzlies       =  83.59   27  55   90.55(   6)    6  25  |   12  34  |   83.54   26 |   83.91   25 |   83.17   25 |   81.07   26  southwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  northwest               =  92.21
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
   2  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  97.19   59  25   90.12(  15)   20   9  |   30  15  |   97.50    2 |   96.94    2 |   96.89    2 |   98.64    1  northwest
   3  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  96.33   58  26   90.06(  17)   18  12  |   27  18  |   96.57    3 |   96.61    3 |   95.40    4 |   94.74   11  northwest
   4  Denver Nuggets          =  95.51   59  25   90.04(  19)   17  11  |   25  18  |   95.16    4 |   95.76    4 |   96.14    3 |   97.31    3  northwest
  23  Utah Jazz               =  85.77   31  51   90.80(   3)    8  26  |   13  36  |   85.84   23 |   86.28   23 |   84.66   24 |   80.35   28  northwest
  27  Portland Trail Blazers  =  81.99   21  61   90.85(   1)    3  30  |    7  41  |   81.86   27 |   82.17   27 |   82.02   26 |   80.90   27  northwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  pacific                 =  92.65
NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 April 24 Wednesday - First Round Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.08]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.03]       [  1.91]       [  1.91]
   7  Los Angeles Clippers    =  93.16   52  32   90.25(  11)   14  15  |   23  23  |   93.39    7 |   93.66    7 |   91.91   15 |   90.84   15  pacific
   8  Phoenix Suns            =  93.00   49  35   90.35(   8)   13  15  |   23  21  |   92.75    8 |   93.02    8 |   93.70    8 |   95.89    9  pacific
  10  Golden State Warriors   =  92.64   46  37   90.34(   9)    7  21  |   14  31  |   92.48   10 |   92.58    9 |   93.21   11 |   94.90   10  pacific
  12  Sacramento Kings        =  92.58   47  37   90.73(   5)   15  22  |   20  29  |   92.47   11 |   92.37   13 |   93.27   10 |   97.21    4  pacific
  17  Los Angeles Lakers      =  91.56   49  37   90.81(   2)   19  19  |   25  28  |   91.30   17 |   91.61   16 |   92.21   14 |   93.63   13  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ Original Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ============================================================================================================== PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 0.05 0.28 -0.12 -0.28 1.49 new york knicks 101 50% 211.10 ORLANDO MAGIC 2.45 2.52 2.40 2.32 2.56 cleveland cavaliers 136 58% 205.60 denver nuggets 0.85 0.67 1.10 1.01 0.91 LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111 53% 221.17 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Philadelphia 76ers 0.49 106 52% New York Knicks 2 @ Orlando Magic 0.95 113 53% Cleveland Cavaliers 3 Denver Nuggets 1.19 116 54% @ Los Angeles Lakers endfile

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