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Jeff Sagarin'stm NBA Ratings


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NBA 2018-2019 ratings through results of 2018 DECEMBER 18 TUESDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
   1  Toronto Raptors         =  96.76   23   9   90.10(  16)    5   5  |    9   7  |   96.74    1 |   97.07    1 |   94.35    6  ATLANTIC
   2  Golden State Warriors   =  96.17   21  10   89.42(  24)    3   6  |    7   8  |   96.06    3 |   96.34    2 |   95.61    3  pacific
   3  Boston Celtics          =  95.90   18  11   89.43(  23)    3   5  |    7   6  |   96.67    2 |   95.51    4 |   94.09    7  ATLANTIC
   4  Milwaukee Bucks         =  95.81   20   9   89.70(  20)    6   3  |   10   5  |   95.99    4 |   95.71    3 |   95.40    5  CENTRAL
   5  Denver Nuggets          =  95.13   21   9   90.17(  14)    8   4  |   12   5  |   95.23    5 |   94.94    5 |   97.20    1  northwest
   6  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  93.98   19  10   88.57(  30)    3   4  |    6   6  |   94.14    6 |   93.90    6 |   93.57    8  northwest
   7  Indiana Pacers          =  93.56   20  11   88.82(  28)    4   4  |    6   8  |   93.39    7 |   93.56    7 |   96.88    2  CENTRAL
   8  Houston Rockets         =  92.72   15  14   90.53(   8)    7   3  |    9   9  |   92.39    8 |   92.88    8 |   95.45    4  southwest
   9  Utah Jazz               =  92.15   14  17   91.91(   1)    4   8  |    6  11  |   92.31    9 |   92.23   12 |   89.67   16  northwest
  10  Los Angeles Lakers      =  92.14   18  13   89.83(  18)    3   4  |    7   9  |   91.91   10 |   92.63    9 |   88.98   18  pacific
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
  11  Portland Trail Blazers  =  91.99   17  13   90.99(   3)    6   6  |   12   9  |   91.76   11 |   92.30   11 |   90.86   14  northwest
  12  Philadelphia 76ers      =  91.94   20  12   88.75(  29)    2   5  |    4   6  |   91.63   13 |   92.45   10 |   89.27   17  ATLANTIC
  13  New Orleans Pelicans    =  91.51   15  16   90.30(  12)    4   6  |    6  11  |   91.76   12 |   91.32   13 |   91.50   11  southwest
  14  San Antonio Spurs       =  90.37   16  15   89.92(  17)    7   5  |   12   9  |   90.22   16 |   90.31   15 |   93.47    9  southwest
  15  Los Angeles Clippers    =  90.23   17  13   90.98(   4)    5   4  |    9   9  |   90.23   15 |   90.60   14 |   83.92   28  pacific
  16  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  90.22   14  16   90.39(   9)    4   7  |    7  11  |   90.33   14 |   90.08   16 |   91.16   12  northwest
  17  Memphis Grizzlies       =  89.41   16  14   90.76(   7)    4   8  |   10  10  |   89.36   19 |   89.61   17 |   87.22   22  southwest
  18  Dallas Mavericks        =  89.11   15  14   89.25(  25)    6   6  |    9   8  |   89.47   18 |   88.95   18 |   86.93   23  southwest
  19  Charlotte Hornets       =  88.96   14  15   88.90(  27)    4   6  |    4  11  |   89.50   17 |   88.67   20 |   86.18   25  SOUTHEAST
  20  Miami Heat              =  88.94   13  16   89.08(  26)    1   6  |    6   7  |   88.84   20 |   88.77   19 |   92.80   10  SOUTHEAST
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
  21  Detroit Pistons         =  88.52   14  14   89.48(  21)    4   6  |    5  10  |   88.49   21 |   88.54   21 |   88.95   19  CENTRAL
  22  Sacramento Kings        =  88.07   16  14   91.03(   2)    4  10  |    7  13  |   87.96   22 |   88.18   22 |   87.92   20  pacific
  23  Washington Wizards      =  87.68   12  19   89.82(  19)    2   6  |    5  10  |   87.52   24 |   87.91   23 |   86.37   24  SOUTHEAST
  24  Brooklyn Nets           =  87.56   14  18   89.43(  22)    3   6  |    5  11  |   87.84   23 |   87.04   25 |   90.95   13  ATLANTIC
  25  Orlando Magic           =  87.14   14  15   90.17(  15)    4   6  |    6  10  |   86.78   25 |   87.23   24 |   89.95   15  SOUTHEAST
  26  New York Knicks         =  83.80    9  23   90.37(  10)    2   8  |    3  11  |   84.07   26 |   83.71   26 |   80.60   30  ATLANTIC
  27  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  83.50    8  23   90.37(  11)    2  11  |    3  14  |   83.43   27 |   83.34   27 |   85.82   26  CENTRAL
  28  Phoenix Suns            =  83.25    7  24   90.84(   6)    1  10  |    3  17  |   82.78   28 |   83.06   28 |   87.43   21  pacific
  29  Chicago Bulls           =  82.07    7  24   90.91(   5)    1  12  |    2  16  |   81.92   29 |   82.14   29 |   82.85   29  CENTRAL
  30  Atlanta Hawks           =  81.40    7  23   90.25(  13)    1   9  |    1  11  |   81.27   30 |   81.03   30 |   84.66   27  SOUTHEAST
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  northwest               =  92.64      92.69  (  1)      5      92.69  (  1)
   2  ATLANTIC                =  91.48      91.19  (  2)      5      91.27  (  2)
   3  southwest               =  90.53      90.62  (  3)      5      90.62  (  3)
   4  pacific                 =  90.06      89.97  (  4)      5      90.00  (  4)
   5  CENTRAL                 =  88.62      88.69  (  5)      5      88.67  (  5)
   6  SOUTHEAST               =  87.28      86.82  (  6)      5      86.89  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  ATLANTIC                =  91.48      91.19  (  2)      5      91.27  (  2)
   5  CENTRAL                 =  88.62      88.69  (  5)      5      88.67  (  5)
   6  SOUTHEAST               =  87.28      86.82  (  6)      5      86.89  (  6)
   3  southwest               =  90.53      90.62  (  3)      5      90.62  (  3)
   1  northwest               =  92.64      92.69  (  1)      5      92.69  (  1)
   4  pacific                 =  90.06      89.97  (  4)      5      90.00  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  ATLANTIC                =  91.48      91.19  (  2)   TEAMS=  5      91.27  (  2)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
   1  Toronto Raptors         =  96.76   23   9   90.10(  16)    5   5  |    9   7  |   96.74    1 |   97.07    1 |   94.35    6  ATLANTIC
   3  Boston Celtics          =  95.90   18  11   89.43(  23)    3   5  |    7   6  |   96.67    2 |   95.51    4 |   94.09    7  ATLANTIC
  12  Philadelphia 76ers      =  91.94   20  12   88.75(  29)    2   5  |    4   6  |   91.63   13 |   92.45   10 |   89.27   17  ATLANTIC
  24  Brooklyn Nets           =  87.56   14  18   89.43(  22)    3   6  |    5  11  |   87.84   23 |   87.04   25 |   90.95   13  ATLANTIC
  26  New York Knicks         =  83.80    9  23   90.37(  10)    2   8  |    3  11  |   84.07   26 |   83.71   26 |   80.60   30  ATLANTIC
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  CENTRAL                 =  88.62      88.69  (  5)   TEAMS=  5      88.67  (  5)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
   4  Milwaukee Bucks         =  95.81   20   9   89.70(  20)    6   3  |   10   5  |   95.99    4 |   95.71    3 |   95.40    5  CENTRAL
   7  Indiana Pacers          =  93.56   20  11   88.82(  28)    4   4  |    6   8  |   93.39    7 |   93.56    7 |   96.88    2  CENTRAL
  21  Detroit Pistons         =  88.52   14  14   89.48(  21)    4   6  |    5  10  |   88.49   21 |   88.54   21 |   88.95   19  CENTRAL
  27  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  83.50    8  23   90.37(  11)    2  11  |    3  14  |   83.43   27 |   83.34   27 |   85.82   26  CENTRAL
  29  Chicago Bulls           =  82.07    7  24   90.91(   5)    1  12  |    2  16  |   81.92   29 |   82.14   29 |   82.85   29  CENTRAL
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  SOUTHEAST               =  87.28      86.82  (  6)   TEAMS=  5      86.89  (  6)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
  19  Charlotte Hornets       =  88.96   14  15   88.90(  27)    4   6  |    4  11  |   89.50   17 |   88.67   20 |   86.18   25  SOUTHEAST
  20  Miami Heat              =  88.94   13  16   89.08(  26)    1   6  |    6   7  |   88.84   20 |   88.77   19 |   92.80   10  SOUTHEAST
  23  Washington Wizards      =  87.68   12  19   89.82(  19)    2   6  |    5  10  |   87.52   24 |   87.91   23 |   86.37   24  SOUTHEAST
  25  Orlando Magic           =  87.14   14  15   90.17(  15)    4   6  |    6  10  |   86.78   25 |   87.23   24 |   89.95   15  SOUTHEAST
  30  Atlanta Hawks           =  81.40    7  23   90.25(  13)    1   9  |    1  11  |   81.27   30 |   81.03   30 |   84.66   27  SOUTHEAST
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  southwest               =  90.53      90.62  (  3)   TEAMS=  5      90.62  (  3)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
   8  Houston Rockets         =  92.72   15  14   90.53(   8)    7   3  |    9   9  |   92.39    8 |   92.88    8 |   95.45    4  southwest
  13  New Orleans Pelicans    =  91.51   15  16   90.30(  12)    4   6  |    6  11  |   91.76   12 |   91.32   13 |   91.50   11  southwest
  14  San Antonio Spurs       =  90.37   16  15   89.92(  17)    7   5  |   12   9  |   90.22   16 |   90.31   15 |   93.47    9  southwest
  17  Memphis Grizzlies       =  89.41   16  14   90.76(   7)    4   8  |   10  10  |   89.36   19 |   89.61   17 |   87.22   22  southwest
  18  Dallas Mavericks        =  89.11   15  14   89.25(  25)    6   6  |    9   8  |   89.47   18 |   88.95   18 |   86.93   23  southwest
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  northwest               =  92.64      92.69  (  1)   TEAMS=  5      92.69  (  1)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
   5  Denver Nuggets          =  95.13   21   9   90.17(  14)    8   4  |   12   5  |   95.23    5 |   94.94    5 |   97.20    1  northwest
   6  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  93.98   19  10   88.57(  30)    3   4  |    6   6  |   94.14    6 |   93.90    6 |   93.57    8  northwest
   9  Utah Jazz               =  92.15   14  17   91.91(   1)    4   8  |    6  11  |   92.31    9 |   92.23   12 |   89.67   16  northwest
  11  Portland Trail Blazers  =  91.99   17  13   90.99(   3)    6   6  |   12   9  |   91.76   11 |   92.30   11 |   90.86   14  northwest
  16  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  90.22   14  16   90.39(   9)    4   7  |    7  11  |   90.33   14 |   90.08   16 |   91.16   12  northwest
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  pacific                 =  90.06      89.97  (  4)   TEAMS=  5      90.00  (  4)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2018 December 18 Tuesday                                                                                         
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.68]                                               [  2.68]       [  2.68]       [  2.68]
   2  Golden State Warriors   =  96.17   21  10   89.42(  24)    3   6  |    7   8  |   96.06    3 |   96.34    2 |   95.61    3  pacific
  10  Los Angeles Lakers      =  92.14   18  13   89.83(  18)    3   4  |    7   9  |   91.91   10 |   92.63    9 |   88.98   18  pacific
  15  Los Angeles Clippers    =  90.23   17  13   90.98(   4)    5   4  |    9   9  |   90.23   15 |   90.60   14 |   83.92   28  pacific
  22  Sacramento Kings        =  88.07   16  14   91.03(   2)    4  10  |    7  13  |   87.96   22 |   88.18   22 |   87.92   20  pacific
  28  Phoenix Suns            =  83.25    7  24   90.84(   6)    1  10  |    3  17  |   82.78   28 |   83.06   28 |   87.43   21  pacific
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". & HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS & both teams in lower case & means "n" for NEUTRAL location & FAVORITE Rating Points Golden Recent UNDERDOG TOTAL & ================================================================================================ BOSTON CELTICS 15.33 16.57 15.13 9.35 phoenix suns 214.38 brooklyn nets 2.81 3.24 2.22 5.42 CHICAGO BULLS 216.98 CHARLOTTE HORNETS 8.13 8.75 8.01 3.03 cleveland cavaliers 218.83 golden state warrior 1.34 1.07 1.43 3.26 UTAH JAZZ 220.09 HOUSTON ROCKETS 7.72 7.54 7.65 11.76 washington wizards 224.24 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 6.98 6.91 7.07 6.58 new orleans pelicans 232.03 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLV 4.38 4.52 4.22 4.89 detroit pistons 218.60 oklahoma city thunde 3.24 3.50 3.04 2.97 SACRAMENTO KINGS 225.18 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 10.82 10.25 11.42 11.35 new york knicks 227.19 PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZE 5.26 5.07 5.36 6.32 memphis grizzlies 210.05 san antonio spurs 0.54 0.75 0.40 0.84 ORLANDO MAGIC 213.88 TORONTO RAPTORS 5.88 6.03 6.19 0.15 indiana pacers 212.10 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 PCT%=confidence FAVORITE SPREAD ODDS PCT% UNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Celtics 15.23 670 87% Phoenix Suns 2 Brooklyn Nets 5.29 205 67% @ Chicago Bulls 3 @ Charlotte Hornets 9.40 342 77% Cleveland Cavaliers 4 @ Houston Rockets 7.26 263 72% Washington Wizards 5 @ Milwaukee Bucks 9.61 350 78% New Orleans Pelicans 6 @ Minnesota Timberwolv 2.44 140 58% Detroit Pistons 7 Oklahoma City Thunde 2.99 151 60% @ Sacramento Kings 8 @ Philadelphia 76ers 11.25 426 81% New York Knicks 9 @ Portland Trail Blaze 6.09 227 69% Memphis Grizzlies 10 San Antonio Spurs 3.45 161 62% @ Orlando Magic 11 @ Toronto Raptors 3.94 172 63% Indiana Pacers 12 @ Utah Jazz 1.19 118 54% Golden State Warrior endfile

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