United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2026-2027 ratings through results of 2026-27 STARTING RATINGS
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93]
1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 99.01 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 99.01 1 | 99.01 1 | 99.01 1 | 99.01 1 northwest
2 San Antonio Spurs = 98.60 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 98.60 2 | 98.60 2 | 98.60 2 | 98.60 2 southwest
3 New York Knicks = 94.74 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.74 3 | 94.74 3 | 94.74 3 | 94.74 3 ATLANTIC
4 Philadelphia 76ers = 94.00 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.00 4 | 94.00 4 | 94.00 4 | 94.00 4 ATLANTIC
5 Boston Celtics = 93.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.96 5 | 93.96 5 | 93.96 5 | 93.96 5 ATLANTIC
6 Detroit Pistons = 93.59 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.59 6 | 93.59 6 | 93.59 6 | 93.59 6 CENTRAL
7 Denver Nuggets = 93.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.27 7 | 93.27 7 | 93.27 7 | 93.27 7 northwest
8 Minnesota Timberwolves = 93.21 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.21 8 | 93.21 8 | 93.21 8 | 93.21 8 northwest
9 Houston Rockets = 92.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.91 9 | 92.91 9 | 92.91 9 | 92.91 9 southwest
10 Cleveland Cavaliers = 92.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.72 10 | 92.72 10 | 92.72 10 | 92.72 10 CENTRAL
NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93]
11 Toronto Raptors = 92.35 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.35 11 | 92.35 11 | 92.35 11 | 92.35 11 ATLANTIC
12 Miami Heat = 91.98 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.98 12 | 91.98 12 | 91.98 12 | 91.98 12 SOUTHEAST
13 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.77 13 | 91.77 13 | 91.77 13 | 91.77 13 pacific
14 Indiana Pacers = 91.51 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.51 14 | 91.51 14 | 91.51 14 | 91.51 14 CENTRAL
15 Atlanta Hawks = 91.31 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.31 15 | 91.31 15 | 91.31 15 | 91.31 15 SOUTHEAST
16 Orlando Magic = 91.23 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.23 16 | 91.23 16 | 91.23 16 | 91.23 16 SOUTHEAST
17 Portland Trail Blazers = 90.26 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.26 17 | 90.26 17 | 90.26 17 | 90.26 17 northwest
18 Golden State Warriors = 89.24 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 89.24 18 | 89.24 18 | 89.24 18 | 89.24 18 pacific
19 Phoenix Suns = 88.97 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.97 19 | 88.97 19 | 88.97 19 | 88.97 19 pacific
20 Charlotte Hornets = 88.89 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.89 20 | 88.89 20 | 88.89 20 | 88.89 20 SOUTHEAST
NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93]
21 Utah Jazz = 88.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.27 21 | 88.27 21 | 88.27 21 | 88.27 21 northwest
22 Washington Wizards = 87.40 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.40 22 | 87.40 22 | 87.40 22 | 87.40 22 SOUTHEAST
23 Dallas Mavericks = 86.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 86.77 23 | 86.77 23 | 86.77 23 | 86.77 23 southwest
24 Chicago Bulls = 84.64 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.64 24 | 84.64 24 | 84.64 24 | 84.64 24 CENTRAL
25 Memphis Grizzlies = 84.47 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.47 25 | 84.47 25 | 84.47 25 | 84.47 25 southwest
26 New Orleans Pelicans = 84.41 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.41 26 | 84.41 26 | 84.41 26 | 84.41 26 southwest
27 Los Angeles Clippers = 84.40 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.40 27 | 84.40 27 | 84.40 27 | 84.40 27 pacific
28 Milwaukee Bucks = 82.87 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 82.87 28 | 82.87 28 | 82.87 28 | 82.87 28 CENTRAL
29 Brooklyn Nets = 82.60 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 82.60 29 | 82.60 29 | 82.60 29 | 82.60 29 ATLANTIC
30 Sacramento Kings = 80.67 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 80.67 30 | 80.67 30 | 80.67 30 | 80.67 30 pacific
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 1 northwest = 92.66 92.80 ( 1) 5 92.76 ( 1) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 2 ATLANTIC = 92.43 91.53 ( 2) 5 91.75 ( 2) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 3 SOUTHEAST = 90.39 90.16 ( 3) 5 90.17 ( 3) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 4 CENTRAL = 89.52 89.06 ( 5) 5 89.13 ( 5) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 5 southwest = 88.67 89.43 ( 4) 5 89.25 ( 4) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 6 pacific = 87.40 87.01 ( 6) 5 87.06 ( 6) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) OVERALL 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 2 ATLANTIC = 92.43 91.53 ( 2) 5 91.75 ( 2) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 91.5290( 5.0676) 4 CENTRAL = 89.52 89.06 ( 5) 5 89.13 ( 5) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 89.0643( 4.9444) 3 SOUTHEAST = 90.39 90.16 ( 3) 5 90.17 ( 3) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 90.1627( 1.9391) 5 southwest = 88.67 89.43 ( 4) 5 89.25 ( 4) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 89.4304( 6.1872) 1 northwest = 92.66 92.80 ( 1) 5 92.76 ( 1) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 92.8032( 4.0604) 6 pacific = 87.40 87.01 ( 6) 5 87.06 ( 6) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) 87.0104( 4.4290) OVERALL 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) 90.0000( 4.6047) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 ATLANTIC = 92.43 NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] 3 New York Knicks = 94.74 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.74 3 | 94.74 3 | 94.74 3 | 94.74 3 ATLANTIC 4 Philadelphia 76ers = 94.00 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.00 4 | 94.00 4 | 94.00 4 | 94.00 4 ATLANTIC 5 Boston Celtics = 93.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.96 5 | 93.96 5 | 93.96 5 | 93.96 5 ATLANTIC 11 Toronto Raptors = 92.35 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.35 11 | 92.35 11 | 92.35 11 | 92.35 11 ATLANTIC 29 Brooklyn Nets = 82.60 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 82.60 29 | 82.60 29 | 82.60 29 | 82.60 29 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 CENTRAL = 89.52 NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] 6 Detroit Pistons = 93.59 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.59 6 | 93.59 6 | 93.59 6 | 93.59 6 CENTRAL 10 Cleveland Cavaliers = 92.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.72 10 | 92.72 10 | 92.72 10 | 92.72 10 CENTRAL 14 Indiana Pacers = 91.51 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.51 14 | 91.51 14 | 91.51 14 | 91.51 14 CENTRAL 24 Chicago Bulls = 84.64 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.64 24 | 84.64 24 | 84.64 24 | 84.64 24 CENTRAL 28 Milwaukee Bucks = 82.87 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 82.87 28 | 82.87 28 | 82.87 28 | 82.87 28 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 SOUTHEAST = 90.39 NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] 12 Miami Heat = 91.98 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.98 12 | 91.98 12 | 91.98 12 | 91.98 12 SOUTHEAST 15 Atlanta Hawks = 91.31 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.31 15 | 91.31 15 | 91.31 15 | 91.31 15 SOUTHEAST 16 Orlando Magic = 91.23 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.23 16 | 91.23 16 | 91.23 16 | 91.23 16 SOUTHEAST 20 Charlotte Hornets = 88.89 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.89 20 | 88.89 20 | 88.89 20 | 88.89 20 SOUTHEAST 22 Washington Wizards = 87.40 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.40 22 | 87.40 22 | 87.40 22 | 87.40 22 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 southwest = 88.67 NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] 2 San Antonio Spurs = 98.60 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 98.60 2 | 98.60 2 | 98.60 2 | 98.60 2 southwest 9 Houston Rockets = 92.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.91 9 | 92.91 9 | 92.91 9 | 92.91 9 southwest 23 Dallas Mavericks = 86.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 86.77 23 | 86.77 23 | 86.77 23 | 86.77 23 southwest 25 Memphis Grizzlies = 84.47 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.47 25 | 84.47 25 | 84.47 25 | 84.47 25 southwest 26 New Orleans Pelicans = 84.41 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.41 26 | 84.41 26 | 84.41 26 | 84.41 26 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 northwest = 92.66 NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] 1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 99.01 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 99.01 1 | 99.01 1 | 99.01 1 | 99.01 1 northwest 7 Denver Nuggets = 93.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.27 7 | 93.27 7 | 93.27 7 | 93.27 7 northwest 8 Minnesota Timberwolves = 93.21 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.21 8 | 93.21 8 | 93.21 8 | 93.21 8 northwest 17 Portland Trail Blazers = 90.26 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.26 17 | 90.26 17 | 90.26 17 | 90.26 17 northwest 21 Utah Jazz = 88.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.27 21 | 88.27 21 | 88.27 21 | 88.27 21 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 pacific = 87.40 NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] [ 1.93] 13 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 91.77 13 | 91.77 13 | 91.77 13 | 91.77 13 pacific 18 Golden State Warriors = 89.24 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 89.24 18 | 89.24 18 | 89.24 18 | 89.24 18 pacific 19 Phoenix Suns = 88.97 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.97 19 | 88.97 19 | 88.97 19 | 88.97 19 pacific 27 Los Angeles Clippers = 84.40 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 84.40 27 | 84.40 27 | 84.40 27 | 84.40 27 pacific 30 Sacramento Kings = 80.67 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 80.67 30 | 80.67 30 | 80.67 30 | 80.67 30 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 @ New York Knicks 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 Philadelphia 76ers 138 58% 116.21 113.54 229.75 2.66 58% 138 2 @ Detroit Pistons 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 Boston Celtics 121 55% 115.66 114.09 229.75 1.56 55% 121 3 @ San Antonio Spurs 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52 Oklahoma City Thunde 120 55% 115.64 114.11 229.75 1.52 55% 120 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NBA 2026-2027 Starting Ratings HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 @ New York Knicks 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 Philadelphia 76ers 138 58% 116.21 113.54 229.75 2.66 58% 138 2 @ Detroit Pistons 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 Boston Celtics 121 55% 115.66 114.09 229.75 1.56 55% 121 3 @ San Antonio Spurs 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52 Oklahoma City Thunde 120 55% 115.64 114.11 229.75 1.52 55% 120EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG endfileTop_of_Page