United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2025-2026 ratings through results of 2026 FEBRUARY 26 THURSDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47]
1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 99.59 45 15 89.75( 24) 10 8 | 17 11 | 100.03 1 | 100.42 1 | 98.64 1 | 97.97 3 northwest
2 Detroit Pistons = 96.95 43 14 89.36( 29) 12 4 | 19 8 | 96.82 2 | 96.70 2 | 97.34 3 | 98.46 2 CENTRAL
3 San Antonio Spurs = 96.61 43 17 90.04( 17) 12 9 | 17 10 | 96.10 3 | 96.31 3 | 97.56 2 | 99.39 1 southwest
4 Cleveland Cavaliers = 95.37 37 23 89.95( 20) 7 11 | 18 16 | 95.54 4 | 95.36 4 | 95.21 5 | 95.94 5 CENTRAL
5 Boston Celtics = 95.27 38 20 89.46( 28) 6 10 | 17 13 | 95.10 6 | 94.53 8 | 96.35 4 | 97.65 4 ATLANTIC
6 Houston Rockets = 94.71 37 21 89.78( 23) 9 9 | 15 13 | 94.72 7 | 95.28 5 | 94.16 6 | 93.89 8 southwest
7 New York Knicks = 94.54 38 22 89.81( 21) 8 8 | 20 14 | 95.11 5 | 94.86 6 | 93.73 8 | 93.12 9 ATLANTIC
8 Denver Nuggets = 93.95 37 22 89.56( 27) 8 10 | 15 14 | 94.33 8 | 94.78 7 | 92.87 10 | 91.99 13 northwest
9 Minnesota Timberwolves = 93.75 37 23 89.26( 30) 9 9 | 15 11 | 93.77 9 | 93.66 9 | 93.80 7 | 94.13 7 northwest
10 Golden State Warriors = 92.12 31 28 90.16( 14) 7 10 | 12 17 | 92.35 10 | 92.13 10 | 91.86 13 | 91.40 14 pacific
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47]
11 Charlotte Hornets = 91.87 29 31 89.72( 25) 5 13 | 10 21 | 92.31 11 | 89.88 19 | 93.63 9 | 95.68 6 SOUTHEAST
12 Toronto Raptors = 91.57 34 25 90.04( 16) 6 13 | 13 19 | 91.35 13 | 91.23 12 | 92.13 12 | 92.74 10 ATLANTIC
13 Miami Heat = 91.52 31 29 90.18( 12) 7 13 | 12 20 | 91.63 12 | 90.68 15 | 92.26 11 | 92.46 11 SOUTHEAST
14 Philadelphia 76ers = 90.95 33 26 89.80( 22) 8 10 | 16 15 | 90.34 16 | 90.97 14 | 91.55 14 | 92.41 12 ATLANTIC
15 Los Angeles Clippers = 90.65 27 31 90.37( 5) 7 14 | 10 20 | 90.92 14 | 90.58 16 | 90.43 15 | 90.49 16 pacific
16 Orlando Magic = 90.42 31 27 90.21( 11) 6 14 | 15 19 | 90.70 15 | 91.40 11 | 89.16 20 | 88.08 22 SOUTHEAST
17 Los Angeles Lakers = 90.19 34 24 90.00( 19) 5 12 | 13 16 | 89.93 17 | 91.12 13 | 89.52 19 | 89.14 19 pacific
18 Phoenix Suns = 90.02 34 26 90.52( 4) 10 15 | 14 20 | 89.65 19 | 90.25 18 | 90.15 16 | 90.21 17 pacific
19 Atlanta Hawks = 89.98 30 31 90.13( 15) 6 13 | 14 23 | 89.90 18 | 90.29 17 | 89.73 17 | 89.55 18 SOUTHEAST
20 Portland Trail Blazers = 88.81 29 31 90.81( 2) 10 16 | 12 23 | 88.09 20 | 88.70 20 | 89.60 18 | 90.54 15 northwest
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47]
21 Milwaukee Bucks = 88.23 26 31 90.21( 10) 6 14 | 12 23 | 88.03 21 | 88.48 21 | 88.16 21 | 88.53 20 CENTRAL
22 Dallas Mavericks = 86.80 21 37 89.64( 26) 7 15 | 10 20 | 87.10 22 | 86.80 23 | 86.45 23 | 85.41 23 southwest
23 Memphis Grizzlies = 86.57 21 36 90.02( 18) 3 17 | 7 23 | 87.09 23 | 86.99 22 | 85.52 24 | 83.98 24 southwest
24 New Orleans Pelicans = 86.28 18 42 90.33( 7) 4 18 | 6 24 | 86.22 24 | 84.78 25 | 87.56 22 | 88.51 21 southwest
25 Chicago Bulls = 84.81 24 36 90.23( 9) 7 13 | 14 22 | 84.81 25 | 85.46 24 | 84.05 25 | 82.73 26 CENTRAL
26 Indiana Pacers = 83.10 15 45 90.36( 6) 4 18 | 7 29 | 83.56 26 | 82.98 26 | 82.68 27 | 81.36 28 CENTRAL
27 Utah Jazz = 82.31 18 41 90.59( 3) 6 16 | 8 24 | 81.88 27 | 81.78 28 | 83.10 26 | 83.33 25 northwest
28 Sacramento Kings = 81.67 14 47 91.05( 1) 6 21 | 7 27 | 81.69 28 | 82.08 27 | 81.16 29 | 80.21 29 pacific
29 Brooklyn Nets = 81.49 15 43 90.32( 8) 3 17 | 6 28 | 81.17 29 | 81.39 29 | 81.84 28 | 81.44 27 ATLANTIC
30 Washington Wizards = 79.90 16 42 90.16( 13) 1 16 | 3 28 | 79.75 30 | 80.11 30 | 79.81 30 | 79.14 30 SOUTHEAST
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 northwest = 92.07 91.68 ( 1) 5 91.79 ( 1) 91.6817( 6.4807) 91.6189( 6.8919) 91.8694( 7.0123) 91.5997( 5.7487) 2 ATLANTIC = 91.38 90.77 ( 2) 5 90.98 ( 2) 90.7651( 5.5089) 90.6146( 5.7023) 90.5973( 5.4557) 91.1191( 5.5103) 3 SOUTHEAST = 89.56 88.74 ( 6) 5 88.96 ( 6) 88.7380( 5.0001) 88.8579( 5.1717) 88.4750( 4.7072) 88.9201( 5.4126) 4 southwest = 89.54 90.19 ( 3) 5 90.11 ( 3) 90.1931( 5.0378) 90.2465( 4.7522) 90.0327( 5.3442) 90.2481( 5.3102) 5 pacific = 89.52 88.93 ( 5) 5 89.06 ( 5) 88.9304( 4.1413) 88.9072( 4.1710) 89.2314( 4.0605) 88.6265( 4.2617) 6 CENTRAL = 89.46 89.69 ( 4) 5 89.63 ( 4) 89.6917( 6.2113) 89.7549( 6.1059) 89.7942( 6.0324) 89.4865( 6.5567) OVERALL 90.0000( 5.0693) 90.0000( 5.1333) 90.0000( 5.1333) 90.0000( 5.1333) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 2 ATLANTIC = 91.38 90.77 ( 2) 5 90.98 ( 2) 90.7651( 5.5089) 90.6146( 5.7023) 90.5973( 5.4557) 91.1191( 5.5103) 6 CENTRAL = 89.46 89.69 ( 4) 5 89.63 ( 4) 89.6917( 6.2113) 89.7549( 6.1059) 89.7942( 6.0324) 89.4865( 6.5567) 3 SOUTHEAST = 89.56 88.74 ( 6) 5 88.96 ( 6) 88.7380( 5.0001) 88.8579( 5.1717) 88.4750( 4.7072) 88.9201( 5.4126) 4 southwest = 89.54 90.19 ( 3) 5 90.11 ( 3) 90.1931( 5.0378) 90.2465( 4.7522) 90.0327( 5.3442) 90.2481( 5.3102) 1 northwest = 92.07 91.68 ( 1) 5 91.79 ( 1) 91.6817( 6.4807) 91.6189( 6.8919) 91.8694( 7.0123) 91.5997( 5.7487) 5 pacific = 89.52 88.93 ( 5) 5 89.06 ( 5) 88.9304( 4.1413) 88.9072( 4.1710) 89.2314( 4.0605) 88.6265( 4.2617) OVERALL 90.0000( 5.0693) 90.0000( 5.1333) 90.0000( 5.1333) 90.0000( 5.1333) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 ATLANTIC = 91.38 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47] 5 Boston Celtics = 95.27 38 20 89.46( 28) 6 10 | 17 13 | 95.10 6 | 94.53 8 | 96.35 4 | 97.65 4 ATLANTIC 7 New York Knicks = 94.54 38 22 89.81( 21) 8 8 | 20 14 | 95.11 5 | 94.86 6 | 93.73 8 | 93.12 9 ATLANTIC 12 Toronto Raptors = 91.57 34 25 90.04( 16) 6 13 | 13 19 | 91.35 13 | 91.23 12 | 92.13 12 | 92.74 10 ATLANTIC 14 Philadelphia 76ers = 90.95 33 26 89.80( 22) 8 10 | 16 15 | 90.34 16 | 90.97 14 | 91.55 14 | 92.41 12 ATLANTIC 29 Brooklyn Nets = 81.49 15 43 90.32( 8) 3 17 | 6 28 | 81.17 29 | 81.39 29 | 81.84 28 | 81.44 27 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 CENTRAL = 89.46 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47] 2 Detroit Pistons = 96.95 43 14 89.36( 29) 12 4 | 19 8 | 96.82 2 | 96.70 2 | 97.34 3 | 98.46 2 CENTRAL 4 Cleveland Cavaliers = 95.37 37 23 89.95( 20) 7 11 | 18 16 | 95.54 4 | 95.36 4 | 95.21 5 | 95.94 5 CENTRAL 21 Milwaukee Bucks = 88.23 26 31 90.21( 10) 6 14 | 12 23 | 88.03 21 | 88.48 21 | 88.16 21 | 88.53 20 CENTRAL 25 Chicago Bulls = 84.81 24 36 90.23( 9) 7 13 | 14 22 | 84.81 25 | 85.46 24 | 84.05 25 | 82.73 26 CENTRAL 26 Indiana Pacers = 83.10 15 45 90.36( 6) 4 18 | 7 29 | 83.56 26 | 82.98 26 | 82.68 27 | 81.36 28 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 SOUTHEAST = 89.56 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47] 11 Charlotte Hornets = 91.87 29 31 89.72( 25) 5 13 | 10 21 | 92.31 11 | 89.88 19 | 93.63 9 | 95.68 6 SOUTHEAST 13 Miami Heat = 91.52 31 29 90.18( 12) 7 13 | 12 20 | 91.63 12 | 90.68 15 | 92.26 11 | 92.46 11 SOUTHEAST 16 Orlando Magic = 90.42 31 27 90.21( 11) 6 14 | 15 19 | 90.70 15 | 91.40 11 | 89.16 20 | 88.08 22 SOUTHEAST 19 Atlanta Hawks = 89.98 30 31 90.13( 15) 6 13 | 14 23 | 89.90 18 | 90.29 17 | 89.73 17 | 89.55 18 SOUTHEAST 30 Washington Wizards = 79.90 16 42 90.16( 13) 1 16 | 3 28 | 79.75 30 | 80.11 30 | 79.81 30 | 79.14 30 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 southwest = 89.54 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47] 3 San Antonio Spurs = 96.61 43 17 90.04( 17) 12 9 | 17 10 | 96.10 3 | 96.31 3 | 97.56 2 | 99.39 1 southwest 6 Houston Rockets = 94.71 37 21 89.78( 23) 9 9 | 15 13 | 94.72 7 | 95.28 5 | 94.16 6 | 93.89 8 southwest 22 Dallas Mavericks = 86.80 21 37 89.64( 26) 7 15 | 10 20 | 87.10 22 | 86.80 23 | 86.45 23 | 85.41 23 southwest 23 Memphis Grizzlies = 86.57 21 36 90.02( 18) 3 17 | 7 23 | 87.09 23 | 86.99 22 | 85.52 24 | 83.98 24 southwest 24 New Orleans Pelicans = 86.28 18 42 90.33( 7) 4 18 | 6 24 | 86.22 24 | 84.78 25 | 87.56 22 | 88.51 21 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 northwest = 92.07 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47] 1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 99.59 45 15 89.75( 24) 10 8 | 17 11 | 100.03 1 | 100.42 1 | 98.64 1 | 97.97 3 northwest 8 Denver Nuggets = 93.95 37 22 89.56( 27) 8 10 | 15 14 | 94.33 8 | 94.78 7 | 92.87 10 | 91.99 13 northwest 9 Minnesota Timberwolves = 93.75 37 23 89.26( 30) 9 9 | 15 11 | 93.77 9 | 93.66 9 | 93.80 7 | 94.13 7 northwest 20 Portland Trail Blazers = 88.81 29 31 90.81( 2) 10 16 | 12 23 | 88.09 20 | 88.70 20 | 89.60 18 | 90.54 15 northwest 27 Utah Jazz = 82.31 18 41 90.59( 3) 6 16 | 8 24 | 81.88 27 | 81.78 28 | 83.10 26 | 83.33 25 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 pacific = 89.52 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.24] [ 1.13] [ 1.13] [ 1.47] [ 1.47] 10 Golden State Warriors = 92.12 31 28 90.16( 14) 7 10 | 12 17 | 92.35 10 | 92.13 10 | 91.86 13 | 91.40 14 pacific 15 Los Angeles Clippers = 90.65 27 31 90.37( 5) 7 14 | 10 20 | 90.92 14 | 90.58 16 | 90.43 15 | 90.49 16 pacific 17 Los Angeles Lakers = 90.19 34 24 90.00( 19) 5 12 | 13 16 | 89.93 17 | 91.12 13 | 89.52 19 | 89.14 19 pacific 18 Phoenix Suns = 90.02 34 26 90.52( 4) 10 15 | 14 20 | 89.65 19 | 90.25 18 | 90.15 16 | 90.21 17 pacific 28 Sacramento Kings = 81.67 14 47 91.05( 1) 6 21 | 7 27 | 81.69 28 | 82.08 27 | 81.16 29 | 80.21 29 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.24 1.13 1.13 1.47 1.47 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 @ Boston Celtics 15.03 15.05 14.27 15.98 17.69 Brooklyn Nets 540 84% 118.62 103.30 221.92 2 @ Detroit Pistons 2.81 2.40 2.47 3.60 4.00 Cleveland Cavaliers 141 59% 117.89 113.66 231.55 3 New York Knicks 5.07 5.96 5.26 4.10 3.11 @ Milwaukee Bucks 184 65% 110.75 117.72 228.48 4 @ Dallas Mavericks 1.47 1.13 0.94 2.41 2.91 Memphis Grizzlies 120 54% 116.40 116.09 232.49 5 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 6.88 6.83 6.76 7.24 7.45 Denver Nuggets 227 69% 119.77 111.93 231.71 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2026 February 26 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.24 1.13 1.13 1.47 1.47 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 @ Boston Celtics 17.59 17.60 16.82 18.54 20.24 Brooklyn Nets 696 87% 118.62 103.30 221.92 2 @ Detroit Pistons 4.09 3.68 3.74 4.88 5.28 Cleveland Cavaliers 164 62% 117.89 113.66 231.55 3 New York Knicks 2.46 3.34 2.65 1.48 0.50 @ Milwaukee Bucks 135 57% 110.75 117.72 228.48 4 @ Dallas Mavericks 2.72 2.39 2.20 3.67 4.16 Memphis Grizzlies 140 58% 116.40 116.09 232.49 5 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 5.60 5.54 5.48 5.96 6.17 Denver Nuggets 196 66% 119.77 111.93 231.71EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Celtics 14.42 507 84% Brooklyn Nets 2 @ Detroit Pistons 3.74 158 61% Cleveland Cavaliers 3 New York Knicks 5.49 193 66% @ Milwaukee Bucks 4 @ Dallas Mavericks 2.52 136 58% Memphis Grizzlies 5 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 8.79 280 74% Denver Nuggets endfileTop_of_Page