United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2024-2025 ratings through results of 2025 OCTOBER 29 WEDNESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32]
1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 98.37 5 0 90.35( 12) 1 0 | 1 0 | 99.77 1 | 100.64 1 | 98.01 3 | 95.85 9 northwest
2 Denver Nuggets = 97.31 3 1 88.41( 22) 0 1 | 1 1 | 97.08 2 | 96.28 2 | 101.39 1 | 107.54 1 northwest
3 Houston Rockets = 96.04 2 2 89.53( 20) 0 1 | 0 2 | 96.20 3 | 94.99 4 | 98.89 2 | 102.73 3 southwest
4 Cleveland Cavaliers = 94.97 3 2 92.27( 6) 1 2 | 2 2 | 95.82 4 | 96.05 3 | 94.26 9 | 91.57 13 CENTRAL
5 Golden State Warriors = 94.41 4 1 91.32( 9) 1 0 | 3 1 | 93.90 6 | 93.95 6 | 96.75 5 | 100.01 5 pacific
6 New York Knicks = 93.81 2 2 93.02( 2) 2 2 | 2 2 | 94.56 5 | 94.63 5 | 93.02 10 | 90.44 15 ATLANTIC
7 San Antonio Spurs = 93.67 4 0 84.96( 30) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.28 7 | 93.59 7 | 95.07 7 | 98.29 6 southwest
8 Boston Celtics = 92.52 2 3 91.76( 8) 1 1 | 1 3 | 92.23 10 | 90.85 15 | 96.05 6 | 100.71 4 ATLANTIC
9 Milwaukee Bucks = 92.37 3 1 89.57( 19) 1 1 | 1 1 | 91.73 12 | 91.93 12 | 94.33 8 | 97.99 8 CENTRAL
10 Miami Heat = 92.18 3 1 89.58( 18) 1 0 | 1 0 | 90.95 15 | 90.57 16 | 97.46 4 | 105.83 2 SOUTHEAST
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32]
11 Detroit Pistons = 92.03 3 2 91.86( 7) 2 1 | 2 1 | 92.34 8 | 92.09 10 | 91.99 12 | 93.14 11 CENTRAL
12 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.81 3 2 90.03( 15) 0 1 | 2 2 | 92.21 11 | 92.15 9 | 91.30 14 | 90.76 14 pacific
13 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.29 2 2 88.05( 23) 0 1 | 1 1 | 91.63 13 | 91.81 13 | 90.49 16 | 87.58 18 pacific
14 Philadelphia 76ers = 91.13 4 0 87.04( 27) 1 0 | 1 0 | 90.81 16 | 91.96 11 | 90.73 15 | 91.70 12 ATLANTIC
15 Minnesota Timberwolves = 90.95 2 3 91.18( 10) 0 1 | 1 3 | 92.25 9 | 92.33 8 | 87.93 18 | 82.58 24 northwest
16 Portland Trail Blazers = 90.27 3 2 91.05( 11) 1 0 | 2 2 | 89.47 18 | 89.50 18 | 92.25 11 | 95.60 10 northwest
17 Atlanta Hawks = 89.79 2 3 89.73( 17) 0 1 | 0 1 | 90.26 17 | 90.30 17 | 88.45 17 | 84.61 21 SOUTHEAST
18 Chicago Bulls = 89.77 4 0 87.94( 25) 0 0 | 1 0 | 88.48 21 | 89.21 20 | 91.91 13 | 98.14 7 CENTRAL
19 Orlando Magic = 89.44 1 4 90.33( 13) 1 0 | 1 2 | 91.02 14 | 91.27 14 | 84.26 25 | 75.87 29 SOUTHEAST
20 Memphis Grizzlies = 88.77 3 2 87.70( 26) 0 2 | 0 2 | 88.77 19 | 89.39 19 | 87.62 19 | 86.45 19 southwest
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32]
21 Dallas Mavericks = 88.22 2 3 86.39( 29) 0 2 | 0 2 | 88.51 20 | 88.59 21 | 86.90 21 | 83.36 23 southwest
22 Indiana Pacers = 87.35 0 4 93.13( 1) 0 1 | 0 2 | 87.62 23 | 86.65 23 | 87.14 20 | 86.35 20 CENTRAL
23 Toronto Raptors = 87.15 1 4 92.63( 5) 0 3 | 0 3 | 87.95 22 | 88.03 22 | 83.85 26 | 79.05 26 ATLANTIC
24 Sacramento Kings = 86.77 1 4 90.14( 14) 0 1 | 0 2 | 87.00 24 | 86.53 24 | 85.94 23 | 83.38 22 pacific
25 Charlotte Hornets = 85.78 2 2 88.00( 24) 0 1 | 0 2 | 84.47 26 | 84.93 26 | 86.82 22 | 89.34 17 SOUTHEAST
26 Phoenix Suns = 84.71 1 4 89.94( 16) 0 1 | 0 2 | 84.92 25 | 85.05 25 | 82.60 27 | 78.81 27 pacific
27 New Orleans Pelicans = 83.74 0 4 92.91( 3) 0 3 | 0 3 | 84.32 27 | 84.21 27 | 80.45 28 | 73.67 30 southwest
28 Utah Jazz = 83.65 2 2 86.75( 28) 0 0 | 1 1 | 81.89 28 | 82.12 28 | 84.59 24 | 89.96 16 northwest
29 Washington Wizards = 81.28 1 3 89.41( 21) 0 1 | 0 2 | 80.33 29 | 80.79 29 | 80.45 29 | 80.51 25 SOUTHEAST
30 Brooklyn Nets = 80.44 0 5 92.64( 4) 0 3 | 0 3 | 80.23 30 | 79.57 30 | 79.10 30 | 78.17 28 ATLANTIC
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endfileDivisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 northwest = 92.23 92.11 ( 1) 5 92.18 ( 1) 92.1105( 5.9672) 92.0932( 6.9776) 92.1747( 7.0131) 92.8342( 6.9330) 2 CENTRAL = 91.41 91.30 ( 2) 5 91.30 ( 2) 91.2984( 2.8786) 91.1973( 3.2846) 91.1867( 3.5191) 91.9260( 2.9207) 3 pacific = 90.02 89.80 ( 4) 5 89.82 ( 4) 89.7973( 3.9575) 89.9329( 3.7936) 89.8999( 3.8727) 89.4168( 5.4092) 4 southwest = 89.99 90.09 ( 3) 5 90.09 ( 3) 90.0883( 4.8414) 90.2130( 4.6068) 90.1549( 4.2887) 89.7874( 7.2624) 5 ATLANTIC = 89.66 89.01 ( 5) 5 89.18 ( 5) 89.0098( 5.4037) 89.1555( 5.5349) 89.0106( 5.7823) 88.5496( 6.9355) 6 SOUTHEAST = 88.10 87.70 ( 6) 5 87.76 ( 6) 87.6957( 4.2529) 87.4082( 4.8090) 87.5732( 4.5584) 87.4861( 6.3394) OVERALL 90.0000( 4.4857) 90.0000( 4.7774) 90.0000( 4.7774) 90.0000( 5.9024) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 5 ATLANTIC = 89.66 89.01 ( 5) 5 89.18 ( 5) 89.0098( 5.4037) 89.1555( 5.5349) 89.0106( 5.7823) 88.5496( 6.9355) 2 CENTRAL = 91.41 91.30 ( 2) 5 91.30 ( 2) 91.2984( 2.8786) 91.1973( 3.2846) 91.1867( 3.5191) 91.9260( 2.9207) 6 SOUTHEAST = 88.10 87.70 ( 6) 5 87.76 ( 6) 87.6957( 4.2529) 87.4082( 4.8090) 87.5732( 4.5584) 87.4861( 6.3394) 4 southwest = 89.99 90.09 ( 3) 5 90.09 ( 3) 90.0883( 4.8414) 90.2130( 4.6068) 90.1549( 4.2887) 89.7874( 7.2624) 1 northwest = 92.23 92.11 ( 1) 5 92.18 ( 1) 92.1105( 5.9672) 92.0932( 6.9776) 92.1747( 7.0131) 92.8342( 6.9330) 3 pacific = 90.02 89.80 ( 4) 5 89.82 ( 4) 89.7973( 3.9575) 89.9329( 3.7936) 89.8999( 3.8727) 89.4168( 5.4092) OVERALL 90.0000( 4.4857) 90.0000( 4.7774) 90.0000( 4.7774) 90.0000( 5.9024) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 ATLANTIC = 89.66 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32] 6 New York Knicks = 93.81 2 2 93.02( 2) 2 2 | 2 2 | 94.56 5 | 94.63 5 | 93.02 10 | 90.44 15 ATLANTIC 8 Boston Celtics = 92.52 2 3 91.76( 8) 1 1 | 1 3 | 92.23 10 | 90.85 15 | 96.05 6 | 100.71 4 ATLANTIC 14 Philadelphia 76ers = 91.13 4 0 87.04( 27) 1 0 | 1 0 | 90.81 16 | 91.96 11 | 90.73 15 | 91.70 12 ATLANTIC 23 Toronto Raptors = 87.15 1 4 92.63( 5) 0 3 | 0 3 | 87.95 22 | 88.03 22 | 83.85 26 | 79.05 26 ATLANTIC 30 Brooklyn Nets = 80.44 0 5 92.64( 4) 0 3 | 0 3 | 80.23 30 | 79.57 30 | 79.10 30 | 78.17 28 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 CENTRAL = 91.41 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32] 4 Cleveland Cavaliers = 94.97 3 2 92.27( 6) 1 2 | 2 2 | 95.82 4 | 96.05 3 | 94.26 9 | 91.57 13 CENTRAL 9 Milwaukee Bucks = 92.37 3 1 89.57( 19) 1 1 | 1 1 | 91.73 12 | 91.93 12 | 94.33 8 | 97.99 8 CENTRAL 11 Detroit Pistons = 92.03 3 2 91.86( 7) 2 1 | 2 1 | 92.34 8 | 92.09 10 | 91.99 12 | 93.14 11 CENTRAL 18 Chicago Bulls = 89.77 4 0 87.94( 25) 0 0 | 1 0 | 88.48 21 | 89.21 20 | 91.91 13 | 98.14 7 CENTRAL 22 Indiana Pacers = 87.35 0 4 93.13( 1) 0 1 | 0 2 | 87.62 23 | 86.65 23 | 87.14 20 | 86.35 20 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 SOUTHEAST = 88.10 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32] 10 Miami Heat = 92.18 3 1 89.58( 18) 1 0 | 1 0 | 90.95 15 | 90.57 16 | 97.46 4 | 105.83 2 SOUTHEAST 17 Atlanta Hawks = 89.79 2 3 89.73( 17) 0 1 | 0 1 | 90.26 17 | 90.30 17 | 88.45 17 | 84.61 21 SOUTHEAST 19 Orlando Magic = 89.44 1 4 90.33( 13) 1 0 | 1 2 | 91.02 14 | 91.27 14 | 84.26 25 | 75.87 29 SOUTHEAST 25 Charlotte Hornets = 85.78 2 2 88.00( 24) 0 1 | 0 2 | 84.47 26 | 84.93 26 | 86.82 22 | 89.34 17 SOUTHEAST 29 Washington Wizards = 81.28 1 3 89.41( 21) 0 1 | 0 2 | 80.33 29 | 80.79 29 | 80.45 29 | 80.51 25 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 southwest = 89.99 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32] 3 Houston Rockets = 96.04 2 2 89.53( 20) 0 1 | 0 2 | 96.20 3 | 94.99 4 | 98.89 2 | 102.73 3 southwest 7 San Antonio Spurs = 93.67 4 0 84.96( 30) 0 0 | 0 0 | 93.28 7 | 93.59 7 | 95.07 7 | 98.29 6 southwest 20 Memphis Grizzlies = 88.77 3 2 87.70( 26) 0 2 | 0 2 | 88.77 19 | 89.39 19 | 87.62 19 | 86.45 19 southwest 21 Dallas Mavericks = 88.22 2 3 86.39( 29) 0 2 | 0 2 | 88.51 20 | 88.59 21 | 86.90 21 | 83.36 23 southwest 27 New Orleans Pelicans = 83.74 0 4 92.91( 3) 0 3 | 0 3 | 84.32 27 | 84.21 27 | 80.45 28 | 73.67 30 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 northwest = 92.23 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32] 1 Oklahoma City Thunder = 98.37 5 0 90.35( 12) 1 0 | 1 0 | 99.77 1 | 100.64 1 | 98.01 3 | 95.85 9 northwest 2 Denver Nuggets = 97.31 3 1 88.41( 22) 0 1 | 1 1 | 97.08 2 | 96.28 2 | 101.39 1 | 107.54 1 northwest 15 Minnesota Timberwolves = 90.95 2 3 91.18( 10) 0 1 | 1 3 | 92.25 9 | 92.33 8 | 87.93 18 | 82.58 24 northwest 16 Portland Trail Blazers = 90.27 3 2 91.05( 11) 1 0 | 2 2 | 89.47 18 | 89.50 18 | 92.25 11 | 95.60 10 northwest 28 Utah Jazz = 83.65 2 2 86.75( 28) 0 0 | 1 1 | 81.89 28 | 82.12 28 | 84.59 24 | 89.96 16 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 pacific = 90.02 NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.21] [ 3.09] [ 3.23] [ 3.32] [ 3.32] 5 Golden State Warriors = 94.41 4 1 91.32( 9) 1 0 | 3 1 | 93.90 6 | 93.95 6 | 96.75 5 | 100.01 5 pacific 12 Los Angeles Lakers = 91.81 3 2 90.03( 15) 0 1 | 2 2 | 92.21 11 | 92.15 9 | 91.30 14 | 90.76 14 pacific 13 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.29 2 2 88.05( 23) 0 1 | 1 1 | 91.63 13 | 91.81 13 | 90.49 16 | 87.58 18 pacific 24 Sacramento Kings = 86.77 1 4 90.14( 14) 0 1 | 0 2 | 87.00 24 | 86.53 24 | 85.94 23 | 83.38 22 pacific 26 Phoenix Suns = 84.71 1 4 89.94( 16) 0 1 | 0 2 | 84.92 25 | 85.05 25 | 82.60 27 | 78.81 27 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.21 3.09 3.23 3.32 3.32 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 Orlando Magic 0.45 3.46 3.11 -5.87 -16.80 @ Charlotte Hornets 106 51% 125.18 111.86 237.03 2 @ Milwaukee Bucks 1.18 0.92 1.21 0.89 1.30 Golden State Warrior 116 54% 120.93 114.70 235.63 3 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 20.30 22.53 23.08 20.88 18.66 Washington Wizards 935 90% 130.44 118.23 248.67 4 @ San Antonio Spurs 4.70 5.41 6.25 0.93 -4.22 Miami Heat 178 64% 113.78 124.47 238.25 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NBA 2025-2026 through games of 2025 October 29 Wednesday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.21 3.09 3.23 3.32 3.32 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 @ Charlotte Hornets 22.61 19.60 19.95 28.93 39.86 Orlando Magic 1159 92% 125.18 111.86 237.03 2 @ Milwaukee Bucks 6.07 5.81 6.10 5.78 6.19 Golden State Warrior 209 68% 120.93 114.70 235.63 3 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 8.08 10.31 10.86 8.66 6.44 Washington Wizards 263 72% 130.44 118.23 248.67 4 Miami Heat 4.13 3.42 2.58 7.90 13.06 @ San Antonio Spurs 167 63% 113.78 124.47 238.25EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Charlotte Hornets 8.60 279 74% Orlando Magic 2 Golden State Warrior 0.65 108 52% @ Milwaukee Bucks 3 @ Oklahoma City Thunde 15.81 600 86% Washington Wizards 4 @ San Antonio Spurs 3.62 156 61% Miami Heat endfileTop_of_Page