United States Naval Observatory
 |
|---|
note: clock runs for 30 seconds; it may skip
seconds; to restart click reload
NBA 2018-2019 ratings through results of 2019 APRIL 24 WEDNESDAY - NBA Playoffs - First Round
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
1 Milwaukee Bucks = 96.89 64 22 89.27( 30) 14 8 | 26 13 | 97.52 1 | 97.12 1 | 95.27 4 CENTRAL
2 Toronto Raptors = 96.11 62 25 89.45( 29) 12 12 | 29 17 | 95.60 3 | 96.08 3 | 99.25 1 ATLANTIC
3 Houston Rockets = 95.33 57 30 90.41( 8) 19 13 | 30 19 | 95.38 4 | 95.59 4 | 95.10 5 southwest
4 Golden State Warriors = 94.89 60 27 90.07( 20) 13 13 | 27 21 | 97.27 2 | 96.94 2 | 90.53 15 pacific
5 Utah Jazz = 94.74 51 36 90.39( 9) 12 20 | 20 28 | 95.08 5 | 94.06 8 | 93.62 8 northwest
6 Boston Celtics = 94.60 53 33 89.58( 27) 9 14 | 20 24 | 94.41 6 | 94.37 5 | 95.31 3 ATLANTIC
7 Portland Trail Blazers = 94.37 57 30 90.38( 11) 17 15 | 28 22 | 93.76 8 | 94.20 6 | 97.92 2 northwest
8 Denver Nuggets = 94.02 57 30 90.27( 14) 15 13 | 30 20 | 93.96 7 | 94.09 7 | 94.17 7 northwest
9 Oklahoma City Thunder = 93.18 50 37 90.45( 6) 17 15 | 26 22 | 93.11 9 | 93.05 10 | 93.36 9 northwest
10 Philadelphia 76ers = 93.17 55 32 89.48( 28) 9 14 | 21 19 | 92.84 10 | 93.42 9 | 94.49 6 ATLANTIC
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
11 San Antonio Spurs = 91.07 50 37 90.46( 5) 17 17 | 24 24 | 91.67 11 | 91.88 12 | 88.92 17 southwest
12 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.01 50 37 90.56( 2) 13 22 | 21 28 | 91.08 13 | 91.30 13 | 90.68 14 pacific
13 Indiana Pacers = 90.81 48 38 89.85( 23) 8 23 | 15 29 | 91.43 12 | 92.07 11 | 88.56 18 CENTRAL
14 Miami Heat = 89.81 39 43 89.82( 25) 9 18 | 13 27 | 89.72 14 | 89.50 15 | 90.05 16 SOUTHEAST
15 Orlando Magic = 89.67 43 44 90.15( 18) 12 19 | 21 24 | 89.07 18 | 88.97 17 | 91.78 10 SOUTHEAST
16 Los Angeles Lakers = 89.65 37 45 90.36( 12) 9 21 | 15 29 | 89.20 16 | 89.83 14 | 91.21 11 pacific
17 Charlotte Hornets = 89.43 39 43 89.84( 24) 6 21 | 13 31 | 88.96 19 | 88.72 20 | 91.05 13 SOUTHEAST
18 Minnesota Timberwolves = 88.83 36 46 90.47( 3) 8 23 | 17 31 | 89.12 17 | 89.13 16 | 87.62 22 northwest
19 Memphis Grizzlies = 88.73 33 49 90.45( 7) 11 19 | 18 29 | 88.00 24 | 87.71 24 | 91.15 12 southwest
20 Detroit Pistons = 88.61 41 45 90.16( 17) 9 22 | 17 32 | 88.89 20 | 88.93 18 | 87.45 23 CENTRAL
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
21 New Orleans Pelicans = 88.58 33 49 90.27( 13) 8 21 | 12 34 | 89.25 15 | 88.91 19 | 85.52 25 southwest
22 Dallas Mavericks = 88.57 33 49 90.46( 4) 12 19 | 16 32 | 88.60 21 | 88.16 22 | 88.39 19 southwest
23 Brooklyn Nets = 88.41 43 44 90.10( 19) 10 23 | 18 31 | 88.58 22 | 88.52 21 | 87.71 21 ATLANTIC
24 Sacramento Kings = 88.09 39 43 90.39( 10) 6 24 | 15 32 | 88.48 23 | 88.12 23 | 86.46 24 pacific
25 Washington Wizards = 86.90 32 50 89.73( 26) 6 19 | 13 30 | 87.53 25 | 87.63 25 | 83.51 28 SOUTHEAST
26 Atlanta Hawks = 85.02 29 53 90.01( 22) 7 20 | 12 33 | 83.77 26 | 83.69 26 | 87.84 20 SOUTHEAST
27 Phoenix Suns = 82.82 19 63 90.63( 1) 5 25 | 9 39 | 81.96 28 | 82.14 28 | 84.70 26 pacific
28 Chicago Bulls = 82.46 22 60 90.06( 21) 3 24 | 7 37 | 82.61 27 | 82.61 27 | 81.77 30 CENTRAL
29 New York Knicks = 82.40 17 65 90.23( 15) 2 26 | 6 39 | 81.50 30 | 81.43 30 | 84.31 27 ATLANTIC
30 Cleveland Cavaliers = 81.81 19 63 90.22( 16) 4 23 | 7 37 | 81.64 29 | 81.82 29 | 82.29 29 CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 northwest = 93.41 93.03 ( 1) 5 93.06 ( 1)
2 ATLANTIC = 91.56 90.94 ( 2) 5 91.11 ( 2)
3 southwest = 89.93 90.46 ( 3) 5 90.41 ( 3)
4 pacific = 89.43 89.29 ( 4) 5 89.33 ( 4)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.48 88.17 ( 5) 5 88.18 ( 5)
6 CENTRAL = 87.90 88.12 ( 6) 5 88.03 ( 6)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 ATLANTIC = 91.56 90.94 ( 2) 5 91.11 ( 2)
6 CENTRAL = 87.90 88.12 ( 6) 5 88.03 ( 6)
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.48 88.17 ( 5) 5 88.18 ( 5)
3 southwest = 89.93 90.46 ( 3) 5 90.41 ( 3)
1 northwest = 93.41 93.03 ( 1) 5 93.06 ( 1)
4 pacific = 89.43 89.29 ( 4) 5 89.33 ( 4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 ATLANTIC = 91.56 90.94 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 91.11 ( 2)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
2 Toronto Raptors = 96.11 62 25 89.45( 29) 12 12 | 29 17 | 95.60 3 | 96.08 3 | 99.25 1 ATLANTIC
6 Boston Celtics = 94.60 53 33 89.58( 27) 9 14 | 20 24 | 94.41 6 | 94.37 5 | 95.31 3 ATLANTIC
10 Philadelphia 76ers = 93.17 55 32 89.48( 28) 9 14 | 21 19 | 92.84 10 | 93.42 9 | 94.49 6 ATLANTIC
23 Brooklyn Nets = 88.41 43 44 90.10( 19) 10 23 | 18 31 | 88.58 22 | 88.52 21 | 87.71 21 ATLANTIC
29 New York Knicks = 82.40 17 65 90.23( 15) 2 26 | 6 39 | 81.50 30 | 81.43 30 | 84.31 27 ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
6 CENTRAL = 87.90 88.12 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 88.03 ( 6)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
1 Milwaukee Bucks = 96.89 64 22 89.27( 30) 14 8 | 26 13 | 97.52 1 | 97.12 1 | 95.27 4 CENTRAL
13 Indiana Pacers = 90.81 48 38 89.85( 23) 8 23 | 15 29 | 91.43 12 | 92.07 11 | 88.56 18 CENTRAL
20 Detroit Pistons = 88.61 41 45 90.16( 17) 9 22 | 17 32 | 88.89 20 | 88.93 18 | 87.45 23 CENTRAL
28 Chicago Bulls = 82.46 22 60 90.06( 21) 3 24 | 7 37 | 82.61 27 | 82.61 27 | 81.77 30 CENTRAL
30 Cleveland Cavaliers = 81.81 19 63 90.22( 16) 4 23 | 7 37 | 81.64 29 | 81.82 29 | 82.29 29 CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5 SOUTHEAST = 88.48 88.17 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 88.18 ( 5)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
14 Miami Heat = 89.81 39 43 89.82( 25) 9 18 | 13 27 | 89.72 14 | 89.50 15 | 90.05 16 SOUTHEAST
15 Orlando Magic = 89.67 43 44 90.15( 18) 12 19 | 21 24 | 89.07 18 | 88.97 17 | 91.78 10 SOUTHEAST
17 Charlotte Hornets = 89.43 39 43 89.84( 24) 6 21 | 13 31 | 88.96 19 | 88.72 20 | 91.05 13 SOUTHEAST
25 Washington Wizards = 86.90 32 50 89.73( 26) 6 19 | 13 30 | 87.53 25 | 87.63 25 | 83.51 28 SOUTHEAST
26 Atlanta Hawks = 85.02 29 53 90.01( 22) 7 20 | 12 33 | 83.77 26 | 83.69 26 | 87.84 20 SOUTHEAST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3 southwest = 89.93 90.46 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 90.41 ( 3)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
3 Houston Rockets = 95.33 57 30 90.41( 8) 19 13 | 30 19 | 95.38 4 | 95.59 4 | 95.10 5 southwest
11 San Antonio Spurs = 91.07 50 37 90.46( 5) 17 17 | 24 24 | 91.67 11 | 91.88 12 | 88.92 17 southwest
19 Memphis Grizzlies = 88.73 33 49 90.45( 7) 11 19 | 18 29 | 88.00 24 | 87.71 24 | 91.15 12 southwest
21 New Orleans Pelicans = 88.58 33 49 90.27( 13) 8 21 | 12 34 | 89.25 15 | 88.91 19 | 85.52 25 southwest
22 Dallas Mavericks = 88.57 33 49 90.46( 4) 12 19 | 16 32 | 88.60 21 | 88.16 22 | 88.39 19 southwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 northwest = 93.41 93.03 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 93.06 ( 1)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
5 Utah Jazz = 94.74 51 36 90.39( 9) 12 20 | 20 28 | 95.08 5 | 94.06 8 | 93.62 8 northwest
7 Portland Trail Blazers = 94.37 57 30 90.38( 11) 17 15 | 28 22 | 93.76 8 | 94.20 6 | 97.92 2 northwest
8 Denver Nuggets = 94.02 57 30 90.27( 14) 15 13 | 30 20 | 93.96 7 | 94.09 7 | 94.17 7 northwest
9 Oklahoma City Thunder = 93.18 50 37 90.45( 6) 17 15 | 26 22 | 93.11 9 | 93.05 10 | 93.36 9 northwest
18 Minnesota Timberwolves = 88.83 36 46 90.47( 3) 8 23 | 17 31 | 89.12 17 | 89.13 16 | 87.62 22 northwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4 pacific = 89.43 89.29 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 89.33 ( 4)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 April 24 Wednesday - NBA Playoffs First Round
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.59] [ 2.59] [ 2.65] [ 2.59]
4 Golden State Warriors = 94.89 60 27 90.07( 20) 13 13 | 27 21 | 97.27 2 | 96.94 2 | 90.53 15 pacific
12 Los Angeles Clippers = 91.01 50 37 90.56( 2) 13 22 | 21 28 | 91.08 13 | 91.30 13 | 90.68 14 pacific
16 Los Angeles Lakers = 89.65 37 45 90.36( 12) 9 21 | 15 29 | 89.20 16 | 89.83 14 | 91.21 11 pacific
24 Sacramento Kings = 88.09 39 43 90.39( 10) 6 24 | 15 32 | 88.48 23 | 88.12 23 | 86.46 24 pacific
27 Phoenix Suns = 82.82 19 63 90.63( 1) 5 25 | 9 39 | 81.96 28 | 82.14 28 | 84.70 26 pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile
Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== denver nuggets 0.36 -0.30 -0.44 2.66 SAN ANTONIO SPURS 105 51% 215.00 DENVER NUGGETS 5.53 4.87 4.87 7.83 san antonio spurs 206 67% 215.00 golden state warrior 1.30 3.61 2.99 -2.74 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 119 54% 235.77 GOLDEN STATE WARRIOR 6.47 8.78 8.29 2.43 los angeles clippers 231 70% 235.77 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 4.87 5.69 5.41 2.54 boston celtics 189 65% 221.68 TORONTO RAPTORS 5.53 5.35 5.31 7.35 philadelphia 76ers 205 67% 227.98 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Denver Nuggets 4.94 191 66% San Antonio Spurs 2 Golden State Warrior 1.67 125 56% @ Los Angeles Clippers 3 @ Golden State Warrior 7.07 248 71% Los Angeles Clippers 4 @ Milwaukee Bucks 7.37 257 72% Boston Celtics 5 @ San Antonio Spurs 0.46 106 52% Denver Nuggets 6 @ Toronto Raptors 5.35 201 67% Philadelphia 76ers endfileTop_of_Page